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120

eqspertis azri

120

Teona lavrelaSvili

evrokavSiri gaurkvevlobis droebaSi -

rogor aRiqmeba es saqarTveloSi?

eqspertis azri

Teona lavrelaSvili

evrokavSiri gaurkvevlobis droebaSi -rogor aRiqmeba es saqarTveloSi?

2019

120

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi ekuTvnis avtorebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saelCos Tvalsazriss.

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe publikaciis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos aranairi, maT Soris eleqtronuli an meqanikuri, formiT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi da daskvnebi ekuTvnis avtors/ebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis

fondis Tvalsazriss.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2019 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-8-1205-7

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winamdebare naSromSi yuradReba gamaxvilebulia evropaSi mimdinare ZiriTad politikur procesebze, romlebic far-Tod gavrcelebuli gaurkvevlobiTa da sayovelTao krizisiT gamoirCeva, da Sefasebulia maTi potenciuri gavlena saqarT-veloze.

davosSi msoflio ekonomikuri forumis wlevandel Sexvedras ar daswrebian iseTi mniSvnelovani msoflio poli-tikuri liderebi, rogorebic arian: aSS-is prezidenti don-ald trampi (mTlianad amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis dele-gacia), britaneTis premier-ministri tereza mei, safrangeTis prezidenti emanuel makroni da kanadis premier-ministri jastin trudo (romelic samits qveynis Sida problemebis gamo gamoaklda). samits aseve ar daswrebian ruseTis pre-zidenti vladimir putini da CineTis prezidenti si Zinpini. liderebis nawilis ardaswreba arapirdapir miuTiTebs im sam-wuxaro faqtze, rom msoflios mravali kuTxe moicva Rrma krizisma, rac adgilobriv, regionul Tu globalur doneze gaurkvevlobis zrdis winapirobas warmoadgens.

marTlac, TiTqmis yvelgan gaurkvevloba sWarbobs. ma-ga liTad, Tu gavixsenebT aSS-CineTis perspeqtivas moklebul molaparakebebs, rac, SesaZloa, savaWro omis gaRrmavebiTa da globaluri ekonomikuri zrdis SemcirebiT1 dasruldes. am process samxreT CineTis zRvaSi Tu mis irgvliv mzardi daZabuloba xels namdvilad ar uwyobs. venesuelaSi mimdi-nare kriziss ki, navTobiT mdidar qveyanaSi arsebuli mZime ekonomikuri katastrofis garda, kidev ufro meti arasta-bilurobis Setana SeuZlia laTinur amerikaSi. am krizisma mosalodnelia ufro gaamwvavos isedac daZabuli urTier-Tobebi dasavleTsa da maduros mxardamWer ruseT-CineTis alianss Soris, romelsac axlaxan natos wevri saxelmwifo _ TurqeTic SeuerTda. TurqeTi ki, sxvaTa Soris, sul ufro metad irgebs ‘spoileris’ rols sxva geopolitikur konfron-taciebSic.

Tavis mxriv, aSS-is qmedebebis araprognozirebulobam da izolacionizmma SesaZloa gazardos siriisa da avRaneTis garSemo Seqmnili tragikuli gaurkvevloba. INF-is (ruseTsa da aSS-s Soris SeTanxmeba axlo da saSualo manZilze moqmedi raketebis likvidaciis Sesaxeb) CaSla ki evropasa da mis sa-

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mezobloSi safrTxeebs zrdis. evrokavSirs sakuTari usafr-Txoebis gamowvevebTan gamklaveba mouwevs, rac aSS-is izola-cionizmma da siriidan da avRaneTidan Zalebis gayvanam kidev ufro gaamwvava. es, Tavis mxriv, axlo aRmosavleTSi rusuli da Cinuri gavlenis gaZlierebisaTvis qmnis noyier niadags. amiT ar sruldeba evrokavSiris amJamindeli da mosalod-neli gamowvevebi. evrogaerTianebis SigniT breqsitTan da-kavSirebuli qaosia. amavdroulad, mis erTianobas safrTxes uqmnian e.w „araliberaluri Zalebi“, magaliTad ungreTSi, italiasa da da poloneTSi, romlebic evropis „axal xedvas“ amzadeben antiimigraciuli varSava-budapeSti-romis RerZis garSemo. iluziuri xdeba safrangeTis xedva Zlieri da re-formirebuli evrokavSirisa _ im fonze, rodesac safrangeT-Si sayovelTao ukmayofilebam ifeTqa, ramac isedac arapopu-laruli prezidenti makroni kidev ufro daasusta. amasTan, radikali populistebi sazogadoebaSi farTod gavrcelebul ukmayofilebas imigraciis, evrokavSiris gafarToebisa da TviT erTobis mimarT evroparlamentis momavali arCevneb-Si warmatebis misaRwevad iyeneben. SemTxveviTi ar aris, rom cnobilma amerikelma politologma pol viotma Tavis bolo-droindel naSroms uwoda „SiSi, gaurkvevloba da geopoli-tika evropaSi“.2

mravlismomaswavebeli cvlilebebi evrokavSiris politikasa da xelmZRvanelobaSi

evrokavSiris wevri saxelmwifoebis politikur xelmZR-vanelobaze dakvirvebis Sedegad martivi dasanaxia struqtu-ruli cvlileba, romelsac, rogorc Cans, arcTu pozitiuri mimarTuleba aqvs. yvela ZiriTadi ideologiuri denominaci-is politikosi gamorCeulad populisti da oportunisti gax-da. maT sul ufro uWirT sazogadoebis mxardaWeris SenarCu-neba, radgan politikuri garemo kidev ufro populisturi da radikaluri Zalebis momravelbiT xasiaTdeba, romlebic ekonomikur sirTuleebs, uTanasworobasa da qsenofobias TavianT sasargeblod iyeneben. am tendenciis miRma arsebu-li logika kargad aris cnobili _ msoflios demokratiul qveynebSi ukanaskneli aTi wlis ganmavlobaSi politikuri istabliSmentisa da tradiciuli politikuri institutebis

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mimarT sazogadoebis ndoba Semcirda.3 am yovelivem saTave daudo politikur cxovrebaSi ‘absenteizms’ an politikis keTebis alternatiuli gzebis arCevans _ masobrivi protes-tisa da Zaladobis (amis kargi magaliTia „yviTeli Jiletebis“ fenomeni) Tu antiistabliSmenturi populizmisa da mmarTve-lobis Zlieri stilis mxardaWeris gziT.

meinstrimis politikosebi xSirad am realobis Secv-las ufro radikaluri da populisturi ritorikis miRebiT (gansakuTrebiT, imigraciisa da evroskepticizmis mimar-TulebiT) cdiloben. es ki, mxolod da mxolod amwvavebs viTarebas da undoblobas zrdis amomrCevlebSi. Sedegad, evrokavSiris saxelmwifoebis umravlesobaSi politikuri xelmZRvaneloba sagrZnoblad dasustda. ianvris Sua ricx-vebSi britaneTis premier-ministr meis breqsitis SeTanxmebam parlamentSi didi marcxi ganicada, rasac warumateblobis mTeli rigi mohyva. maT Soris, mmarTveli partiis fraqciis rigebSi dezertirebis pirveli talRa, rac, savaraudod, ev-rokavSiridan SeTanxmebis gareSe gamosvliTa da mZime eko-nomikuri da politikuri SedegebiT dasruldeba.

germaniaSi evropis yvelaze qarizmatuli da unariani politikosi angela merkeli politikuri pensiisTvis emza-deba. asparezs ki naklebad gamocdil da gavlenian poli-tikosebs utovebs. migrantebis sakiTxma germanuli sazoga-doebis polarizeba gamoiwvia, ramac ultramemarjvene par-tiis _ AfD („alternativa germaniisTvis“, “Alternative for Ger-many”) popularizebas Seuwyo xeli. AfD-m evroparlamentis saarCevno manifestSi Dexit-is (evrokavSiridan germaniis gas-v lis) sakiTxic ki wamoayena. bolo dros es sakiTxi „evro-pis, rogorc ‘Europe of Fatherlads’“4-ad gardaqmnis mowodebiT Secvala. italia 2018 wlis saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg antiimigraciuli ‘ligis partiisa’ da antiistabliSmenturi ‘xuTi varskvlavis moZraobis’ (“Five Star Movement”) koaliciiT imarTeba. orive partia dapirispirebulia briuselTan, rac ukve aisaxa italiis daubalansebeli biujetis gegmis Sesaxeb gamarTul „mZime saubarSi“. safrangeTSi makroni, erT dros evropis amomavali varskvlavi, dRes sakuTari imijisa da safrangeTis miseuli xedvis gadarCenas cdilobs, Tumca sak-maod rTuli gamowvevebis winaSe dgas _ „yviTelJiletianTa moZraoba“ kvlav quCaSia, romelic makronis probiznespoli-

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tikas ewinaaRmdegeba da mis gadadgomas iTxovs. situacias amwvavebs safrangeTsa da italias Soris gaCenili uTanxmoe-bac. miuxedavad imisa, rom makronis saparlamento umravle-sobas 2022 wlis arCevnebamde safrTxe ar emuqreba, momavali evroparlamentis arCevnebi SesaZloa safrangeTis politikis sawinaaRmdego an mxardamWer arCevnebad gadaiqces.

miuxedavad imisa, rom evrokavSirma uprecedento Za-lisxmevis wyalobiT kontinentze mSvidoba, politikuri stabiluroba da ekonomikuri ayvaveba moitana da ekonomi-kuri urTierTdamokidebulebisa da wevr saxelmwifoebs So-ris barierebis gaqrobis gziT evropis qveynebis umravleso-ba gaaerTiana, procesebis mimdinare sagangaSo ganviTareba gvaxsenebs, rom jansaR optimizms realobis kargi sazomic unda axldes. gansakuTrebiT ki dRes, rodesac evrokavSiri mravali krizisis winaSe dgas. es yovelive ZiriTadad glo-baluri procesebis mimarTulebis cvlilebiT aixsneba, rac ramdenime aTwleulis win TiTqos „istoriis dasasrulisken“ miemarTeboda. evrokavSirSi amJamad arsebuli problemebis nawili grZelvadiani xedvis mqone qmediTi liderebis nakle-bobis, evrokavSiris institutebis gadametebuli biurokra-tizaciis, evroskepticizmis matebisa da nacionalisturi da avtoritaruli tendenciebis zrdis Sedegia. garda ami-sa, evrokavSirisaTvis mniSvnelovan problemas warmoadgens CrdiloeT-samxreTsa da aRmosavleT-dasavleTs Soris mzar-di ekonomikuri da politikuri daSoriSoreba, aseve aRmosav-leTidan momavali usafrTxoebis gamowvevebTan gasamklave-blad metismetad damokidebuleba araprognozirebad aSS-ze.

mniSvnelovani wevri saxelmwifoebis dasustebul mmarTvelobas evrokavSiris instituciuri xelmZRvanelo-ba, sistemuri mizezebis gamo, ver gadawonis. faqtobrivad, evrokavSiris liderebi xSirad araformaluri zewolis da garigebis gziT miRweuli politikuri konsensusis Sedegad iniSnebian. aseTi praqtikis arseboba niSnavs, rom arCeul an daniSnul Tanamdebobis pirebs, romlebic „konsensusis kont-raqtiT“ arian SezRuduli, TavianTi mxardamWerebis upirobo Tanxmobis gareSe nebismieri axali xedvis ganxorcielebis sakmaod mokrZalebuli ambicia eqnebaT. magaliTad, evropuli sabWos prezidents amtkiceben wevri saxelmwifoebi. es mas iseT „konsensuspolitikosad“ aqcevs, romelic saxalxo xmiT

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ki ar airCies, aramed erovnulma liderebma daniSnes. igi ika-vebs sakmaod prestiJul Tanamdebobas da sinamdvileSi aRmas-rulebeli Zalauflebis naklebobas ganicdis. evrokomisiis prezidents ki evropartia (evrokavSiris wevri saxelmwifoe-bis erovnuli partiebis gaerTianeba, romelic evrokavSiris doneze moqmedebs, rogorc partia) waradgens, romelmac ev-roparlamentis arCevnebisas yvelaze meti xma miiRo („mowinave kandidatis“ procedura SesaZloa sabolood Seicvalos, mag-ram inercia gagrZeldeba). yvela SemTxvevaSi, sivrce, sadac evrokavSiris liderebi sakuTar xedvas daafiqsireben, Sez-Rudulia formaluri procedurebiT da yvelaze gavleniani erovnuli liderebis nebiT. evrokavSiris zedmeti biurokra-tizacia anelebs da asustebs gadawyvetilebebis miRebas da axali ideebis mimarT rigidulobas aCvenebs. aRniSnuli kidev ufro gaamZafra gadawyvetilebis miRebis pasuxismgeblobis sxvadasxva institutsa da saagentoze gadanawilebam. Sede-gad, molaparakeba da kompromisis miRweva uzarmazar Zalisx-mevas moiTxovs. vinaidan erovnuli liderebi evrokavSiris saerTo politikis Zalauflebis centrebad rCebian, isini evro kavSiris doneze TavianTi gavlenis gaZlierebis winapi-robad popularobisa da Zalauflebis erovnul doneze mopo-vebas an SenarCunebas miiCneven. Sesabamisad, evropul doneze politikaSi CarTulobisas nakleb enTuziazms iCenen.

xelmZRvanelobis am naklovanebebTan erTad, evrokav-SirSi Tavad demokratiac ukan midis. “Freedom House“-is 2018 wlis angariSi, saxelwodebiT „demokratia krizisSi“, iuwye-ba, rom evropaSi liberaluri demokratiuli Rirebulebebis ukusvlaa. demokratiis Sefasebis kidev erTi, xSirad moyvani-li sazomi _ „ekonomistis kvleviTi jgufis demokratiis in-deqsi“ (“the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Democracy Index“) _ aCvenebs, rom evrokavSiris demokratiis saSualo qula 2006-dan 2016 wlamde 8.13-dan 7.89-mde Semcirda.5 cxadia, aseTi ukusvla ZiriTadad aRmosavleT evropis qveynebSi, rogore-bicaa poloneTi da ungreTi, demokratiuli institutebis dasustebam gamoiwvia. miuxedavad imisa, rom es SesaZloa mci-re nugeSi iyos evrokavSirisTvis, SeiZleba kidev ufro meti uTanxmoebisa da dayofis winapirobac gaxdes.

naTelia, rom evrokavSiris wevri saxelmwifoebis de-mokratiis gzebi da traeqtoriebi erTmaneTs ar emTxveva.

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ung reTSi prezidentma viqtor orbanma avtoritaruli re-Jimis sevdiani speqtakli dadga, romliTac „araliberal-uri demokratiis“ droSis qveS zogierTi Tavisi araswori qmedebis gadafarvas cdilobs. amJamad orbani e.w. „mono-bis kanonis“ (rac aranormirebuli samuSao dRis mareguli-rebel wesebs asustebs) miRebiT gamowveuli sazogadoebri-vi protestis winaSe dgas. bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi, mus-limi ltolvilebisa da migrantebis uaryofis gamo, orbani araerTxel daupirispir da briusels. Tumca, is marto ar aris. ‘poloneTis kanonisa da samarTlis partiis’ antide-mokratiulma nabijebma, rasac iaroslav kaCinski xelmZR-vanelobs, qveynis konstituciuri institutebi daasusta da kontroli moipova saxelmwifo televiziaze. amJamad partia ungreTTan da italiasTan politikuri aliansisaTvis emzade-ba, raTa Seiqmnas „axali evropis“ RerZi, rogorc mas italiis ultramemarjvene Sinagan saqmeTa ministri da vice-premieri mateo salvini uwodebs.

rogorc zemoT aRiniSna, kidev erT SemaSfoTebel tendencias populisti da nacionalisturi (memarcxene da me-marjvene) partiebis aRzeveba warmoadgens, romlebic sagul-dagulod emzadebian evroparlamentis arCevnebisaTvis. es arCevnebi, Tuki warsulSi mSvidi politikuri movlena iyo, amjerad gansxvavebuli iqneba. evrokavSiris masStabiT yve-la populisturi Zala 2019 wlis maisis arCevnebs sakuTari antiimigraciuli da nacionalisturi xedvebis siZlieris mosinjvis droul SesaZleblobad miiCnevs. marin le penma, politikuri partia „erovnuli moZraobis“ prezidentma, ukve daiwyo kampania. man es momenti antiistabliSmenturi „yvi-Teli Jiletebis“ moZraobis legitimizaciisaTvisac gamoiy-ena da maT sajarod gamoucxada mxardaWera. damkvirvebelTa umravlesoba aRniSnavs, rom evroparlamentis axali Semad-genloba SeiZleba fragmentuli gaxdes, Tumca, savaraudod, adgilebis umravlesobas meinstrimpartiebi SeinarCuneben. Sesabamisad, mosalodnelia, rom EPP (evropis saxalxo partia) evroparlamentSi umravlesobas SeinarCunebs, magram siste-maSi aseve SeaRwevs bevri sxva partia, rac potenciurad met qaossa da uTanxmoebas moitans. aRsaniSnavia, rom aman aseve SeiZleba ufro moqnili da dinamikuri sistema koaliciebi-sken gadaxaros.

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evrokavSiris usafrTxoeba: SiSi da imedi

evrokavSiris erT-erTi fundamenturi xarvezia misi uunaroba, Tavi daicvas garedan momdinare (magaliTad, ru-seTidan) safrTxeebisgan. miuxedavad imisa, rom evrokav-Siris qveynebis jamuri samxedro biujeti ruseTis samxedro biujets aWarbebs, evrokavSiris samxedro moqmedebebi Sez-Rudulia da Tavdacvis aspeqtSi aSS-is mier dominirebul natos Zalebs eyrdnoba. marTalia, evrokavSirs globalur Zalad gadaqcevis ambicia aqvs, magram usafrTxoebis mzardi gamowvevebis pirobebSi, sakuTari SesaZleblobebis ganviTa-rebis gareSe, es ambicia rTulad misaRwevi iqneba. evrokav-Siri-natos urTierTobebi, romelic gansakuTrebiT Zlieri arc arasdros yofila, bolo xanebSi Sesustda, radgan aSS-is xelmZRvanelobam, donald trampis TaosnobiT, natos vaSing-tonis SeTanxmebis me-5 muxliT gawerili wevri saxelmwifoe-bis upirobo dacvis pasuxismgeblobis mimarT periodulad cvalebadi damokidebuleba aCvena. miuxedavad imisa, rom molaparakebebi evrokavSiris strategiuli Tavdacvis av-tonomiis Sesaxeb sporadulad iCens Tavs, Tavdacvis sferoSi TanamSromlobis radikalurad axali midgomis da erToblivi Tavdacvis SesaZleblobebis gaZlierebis realisturi scenari Zalian neli tempiT xorcieldeba. natos xelmZRvaneloba ev-rokavSiris Tavdacvis damoukidebeli infrastruqturis Se-sa xeb enTuziazms maincdamainc ar gamoxatavs, im SemTxvevaSi, Tu is natos struqturulad ar Seavsebs. natos generaluri mdivnis, ian stoltenbergis Tanaxmad, evrokavSirs ar ZaluZs natos Canacvleba da es arc arasdros unda gaakeTos.

evropuli usafrTxoebis sferoSi breqsitis Semdeg gaurkvevloba kidev ufro metad gaRrmavdeba. natos genera-luri mdivanis Tanaxmad, organizaciis dafinansebis 80% ev-rokavSiris arawevri mokavSireebisgan wamova,6 xolo evro-kavSirsa da britaneTs Soris TanamSromlobis momavali us-afrTxoebis sferoSi kidev erTi pasuxgaucemeli kiTxvaa. britaneTis evrokavSiridan gamosvlis SeTanxmebis amJamind-eli gegma arafers ambobs „evropolis“, „evrokavSiris kanon-is aRsrulebis dRis wesrigisa“ da „evrojasTis“ farglebSi TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb. ruseTis Zalismieri moqmedebebi ki ar mcirdeba. azovis zRvaSi bolo dros momxdari eskalacia

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gviCvenebs, rom SesaZloa moskovs kidev ufro agresiuli geg-mebi hqondes ukrainisa da sxva mezobeli qveynebis mimarT. ruseTi ganagrZobs saerTaSoriso samarTlisa da SeTanxme-bebis ugulebelyofas _ ukanasknelad misi amgvari qmedeba iyo saSualo diapazonis birTvuli arsenalis gamoyenebis regulaciebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis (INF) darRveva. rogorc aSS-m, ise ruseTma, ganacxades, rom 6 TveSi INF-dan gamovlen da adre akrZalul mokle da saSualo diapazonis raketebs Seqmnian. aseTi raketebi gansakuTrebiT saSiSia evropelebi-sTvis, radgan erTi mxriv, maTi dadgena rTulia da meore mxriv, mxolod ramdenime wuTi sWirdebaT evropis nebismier qalaqamde misaRwevad. ufro metic, isini birTvuli iaraRis gamoyenebis bariers amcireben. INF-dan gamosvla mkveTrad gazrdis strategiul gaurkvevlobas, radgan es, savaraudod, imas niSnavs, rom rusuli safrTxis dasabalanseblad birT-vuli sabrZolo Tavis mqone aSS-is mokle da saSualo diapa-zonis raketebi kvlav ganTavsdeba evropaSi, rac kontinentze birTvuli konfliqtis risks gazrdis.

Savi zRvis regioni da kavkasia saxifaTo arastabilu-robis winaSe dgas, rac zemoT aRweril safrTxeebs emate-ba. regionis daCqarebuli militarizacia ukve aTwleulze metia mimdinareobs. mTiani yarabaRis konfliqtis Sedegad azerbaijansa da somxeTSi SeiaraRebuli Zalebis Camoyali-beba, CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi mebrZolebis winaaRmdeg ruseTis samxreTis militarizacia, rusuli samxedro SenaerTebis gan-Tavseba da bazebis Seqmna saqarTvelos okupirebul regioneb-Si (afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi) da somxeTSi rusuli samxedro Zalebis Camoyalibeba _ es yvelaferi moxda an daiwyo 2014 wels yirimis aneqsiamde. Tumca mas Semdeg ukrainasa da mis garSemo arsebuli samxedro Zalebis mZlavri koncentraciac moxda (igulisxmeba rogorc rusuli mxaris mier mxardaWeri-li separatistuli Zalebi, ise araRiarebuli rusuli regu-laruli qvedanayofebi, igive „moxaliseebi“, da modernizebu-li ukrainuli Zalebi).7 garda amisa, mimdinareobs yirimisa da Savi zRvis gansakuTrebiT mZlavri militarizacia im fonze, roca ruseTisa da natos samxedro SesaZleblobebi, saerTo Zalis zoma da regionSi samxedro wvrTnebis intensivoba mniSv nelovnad gaizarda.

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ras SeiZleba niSnavdes es yovelive saqarTvelosTvis: lokali-zebuli gaurkvevloba

evropaSi da mis garSemo mimdinare zemoT aRwerili procesebi mravalmxrivi da mravalganzomilebiania. Sesabami-sad, am procesebis ganviTareba sxvadasxva mimarTulebiT mniS-vnelovnad aisaxeba saqarTveloze. albaT, yvelaze sayurad-Rebo faqtori am SemTxvevaSi aris evrokavSiris rbili Zala da saqarTvelos swrafva evrokavSirSi saboloo gawevrianebi-saken. evrokavSirisaken am gzas qarTvelebi aRiqvamen, rogorc erTaderT grZelvadian arCevans, romelic sasicocxloa qvey-nis suverenitetisa da demokratiuli gardaqmnis uzrunvel-sayofad da progresuli ganviTarebisaTvis. saqarTvelosTvis kargi mmarTvelobisa da demokratiis sferoSi misabaZ maga-liTebs evrokavSiris ZiriTadi saxelmwifoebi warmoadgenen. swored evrokavSiris rbilma Zalam misca stimuli qveyanas gaetarebina reformebi ekonomikuri da demokratiuli tran-ziciis gzaze. evroparlamentis politikis departamentis8 momzadebuli kvlevis Tanaxmad, im faqtis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmeba ar moicavda „arc gawev-rianebis Sesaxeb dapirebas da arc garantias im finansuri daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelic evrokavSiris centralur da aRmosavleT evropis wevr saxelmwifoebs gauwies“,9 evrokav-Sirsa da saqarTvelos Soris asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis xelmowera da ratificireba „briuselis „rbili Zalis“ STam-beWdaobis“ dasturia.

marTlac, adreuli, 1990-iani wlebis, tranziciis da Semdgomac evrokavSirma guluxvi mxardaWeriT mniSvnelovani roli Seasrula Tanamedrove saqarTvelos saxelmwifos mSeneblobis procesSi. evrokavSiri saqarTvelos mudmiv politikur mxardaWeras ucxadebda, evrokavSiris warmomad-geneli ki ruseT-saqarTvelos Jenevis molaparakebebis erT-erTi TanaTavmjdomarea. saqarTvelo evrokavSiris asocire-buli qveyanaa da evrokavSiris wevri qveynebi misi yvelaze didi savaWro partniorebia. evrokavSiris wevri saxelmwi-foebi saqarTvelos mniSvnelovan ekonomikur, humanitarul da teqnikur daxmarebasac uweven. amavdroulad, evrokavSiri saqarTvelos erovnuli usafrTxoebis ramdenime mniSvnelo-van aspeqtSia CarTuli: evrokavSiris SeuiaraRebeli sadam-

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kvirveblo misia (EUMM) konfliqtis zonebis/separatistuli teritoriebis gamyofi xazis gaswvriv patrulirebs. cxadia, saqarTvelos geopolitikuri mdebareobisa da ruseTTan is-toriuli konfliqtis gaTvaliswinebiT, 2008 wlis ruseT-saqarTvelos omis CaTvliT, Crdiloeli mezobeli saqarT-velos suverenulobisa da saxelmwifoebriobisaTvis namdvil safrTxes warmoadgens. marTalia, saqarTvelos demokra-tizacia grZeldeba, magram es procesi Seuqcevadi ar aris da garkveuli gamowvevebis winaSe dgas. qveyanaSi umuSevrobis maRali donea, gansakuTrebiT _ axalgazrdebSi. qveyanas Zala ar Seswevs Seamciros farTod gavrcelebuli siRaribe. am yovelives emateba ganaTlebis, socialuri keTildReobisa da jandacvis sistemis saswrafod gaumjobesebis aucilebloba. umuSevrobis maRali done da saqarTvelos ekonomikuri zrdis araproduqtiul ucxour investiciebze (romlebic xSirad uZravi qonebis Sesyidvazea orientirebuli) damokidebule-bam mTavrobas Sromis dacvis efeqturi meqanizmebis daner g-va gaurTula (Freedom House 2017 Report). garda amisa, saqarT-velos mmarTvelobasTan dakavSirebuli problemebic aqvs _ bolodroindeli saerTaSoriso angariSebSi araformalur mmarTvelobaze, qveyanaSi Zalauflebis Stoebis dayofa-kontrolisa da balansis meqanizmis deficitzea laparaki.10 politikuri monawileoba SezRuduli Cans da politikuri gadawyvetilebis miReba mxolod erTi politikuri partiis _ „qarTuli ocnebis“ uflebamosilebaa, romelic mkveTri ide-ologiuri principebisa da qveynis Sesaxeb strategiuli xed-vis naklovanebas ganicdis.

qarTul ekonomikas aseve axasiaTebs struqturuli ganuviTarebloba, produqtiulobis efeqturobisa da indus-trializaciis dabali done. codnaze dafuZnebuli ekonomika CamorCeba saSualoSemosavliani qveynebis umravlesobas. sa-muSao Zalis TiTqmis naxevari ki, araproduqtiul sasoflo-sameurneo saqmianobaSia CarTuli, rac umuSevrobis realur, kidev ufro maRal maCvenebels iZleva. Sedegad, saqarTvelo evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebiT (DCFTA) efeqturad ver sarge-blobs, xolo misi jamuri savaWro saldo uaryofiTia. dRei-saTvis saqarTvelodan mniSvnelovani migracia da tvinebis gadinebaa, adre ganaTlebamiRebuli samuSao Zala ki profesi-ulad degradirebulia.

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cxadia, usafrTxoebasTan dakavSirebuli gamowvevebs qveynis dRis wesrigSi gansakuTrebuli adgili ukavia, rac garkveulwilad xsnis kidec mis ekonomikur Tu sxva sirTu-leebs. ori damangreveli eTnokonfliqtis Sedegad saqarT-velos teritoriis erT mexuTeds ruseTis mxardaWerili de faqto mTavrobebi akontroleben. ruseTi, romelsac aRniS-nul teritoriebze Tavisi samxedro bazebi aralegalurad aqvs ganTavsebuli, saerTaSoriso donezea aRiarebuli saoku-pacio Zalad. vinaidan saqarTvelos samxedro SesaZleblobebi mis regionul mezoblebTan (ruseTze rom aRaraferi vTqvaT) SedarebiT mcirea, ruseTis agresiis SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis dasacavad aranairi garantia Tu meqanizmi ar arsebobs, rac aCvena kidec 2008 wlis agvistos omma. erTi mxriv, grZelvadiani stabilurobisa da usafrTxoebis misaRw-evad saqarTvelo evrokavSirisa da natos wevrobisaken miisw-rafvis, meore mxriv ki, nebismieri aseTi progresi ruseTi-dan momdinare samxedro (an hibriduli, rogorc es ukrainaSi moxda) safrTxis Semcvelia, romelTan gamklavebis resursic saqarTvelos ar gaaCnia. ruseTidan momdinare safrTxeebis garda, misi ukiduresi antidasavluri propaganda da qveyanaSi prorusuli da antidasavluri Zalebis saidumlo mxardaWera SesaZloa jerjerobiT naklebad saSiSi iyos. Tumca, grZel-vadian perspeqtivaSi mniSvnelovani saSiSroebis matarebelia saqarTvelos evropul proeqtTan mimarTebiT.

am yovelives gaanalizebis Semdeg gasakviri ar aris, rom evrokavSirSi mimdinare nebismier movlenas Zlieri gav-lena aqvs saqarTvelos saxelmwifo saqmeebze, usafrTxoebasa da ganviTarebis perspeqtivebze. evrokavSiris mxridan saqa-rTvelosTvis gaweuli Rirebuli da mravalmxrivi daxmarebis gareSec ki, es aris swored evrokavSiris rbili Zala, ro-melic saqarTvelos evropeizaciisa da integraciis mcde-lobis procesSi ukiduresad mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs. Sesabamisad, evrokavSiris SigniT momxdari nebismieri uTanx-moeba an misi rbili Zalis dasusteba saSiS gavlenas moaxdens saqarTvelos evropul gzaze. Sida dayofiTa da gadauwyvet-elobiT gamowveuli evropis saerTaSoriso gavlenis Sesus-teba saqarTvelosTvisac zianis momtani iqneba, vinaidan saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi, gansakuTrebiT ki ruseTTan mimarTebiT, qveyana mniSvnelovanwilad evrokavSiris poli-tikur mxardaWerazea damokidebuli. rasakvirvelia, evrokav-

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Siris mier gaweuli finansuri, teqnikuri da sxva saxis dax-marebis Semcireba uaryofiT gavlenas moaxdens saqarTvelos ekonomikur da politikur ganviTarebaze. es ki ganapirobebs demokratizaciis procesisa da ekonomikuri zrdis Senele-bas, xolo emigracias sagrZnoblad gazrdis.

meore mxriv, gaurkvevlobisa da areulobis pirobebSi, romelsac amJamad evrokavSiri awydeba, SeiZleba aRmoCndes, rom saqarTvelosnair stabilurad sando da enTuziast part-niorTan megobrobis ugulebelyofa martivad ar unda moxdes. gamokiTxvebis Tanaxmad, yovel meore qarTvels (49%) evroka-vSirze dadebiTi warmodgena aqvs. es aRmosavleT partnioro-bis qveynebs Soris yvelaze maRali maCvenebelia. evrokavSiris wevr qveynebSi evroenTuziazmis Semcirebisa da gazr dili evroskepticizmis fonze, saqarTvelos evrokavSirTan inte-graciis gaRrmavebis kontrastuli survili SesaZ loa SeamC-nion da dafasdes. es ki daexmareba saqarTvelos bevrad xel-sayrel situaciaSi aRmoCndes integraciis procesSi Semdegi nabijebis gadasadgmelad _ magaliTad, gaxdes ufro CarTuli evrokavSiris instituciur da seqto rul programebSi. saqa-rTvelos moqalaqeebisaTvis uvizo mimosv lis miniWeba me-tad mniSvnelovani simboluri qmedeba da jildo aRmoCnda saqarTvelos proevropuli midgomebisa da warmatebuli re-formebis gatarebisaTvis. rogorc Cans, amJamad isev saWiroa sxva mniSvnelovani simboluri da praqtikuli qmedebebi, rom-lebic qarTvelebs dasavleTSi integ raciis motivacias au-maRlebs da rusuli antidasavluri propagandis momwamvlel gavlenas daabalansebs.

amJamad evrokavSirs mniSvnelovani Zalisxmeva mimar-Tuli aqvs Tavis aRmosavleT mezoblebTan urTierTobis xe-laxla Sefasebisaken. briuselis aRmosavleT partniorobis (EaP) saparlamento asambleis 2017 wlis samitis gaxsnisaTvis evroparlamentma aRmosavleT partniorebis Semdgomi poli-tikis xedva SeimuSava da evrokavSiris sabWosa da komisiisT-vis Sesabamisi rekomendaciebi moamzada. rekomendacia iTva-liswinebs warmatebuli asocirebuli qveynebisaTvis “EaP+” modelis Seqmnas. es ki niSnavs SesaZlo wvdomas sabaJo, en-ergetikul da cifrul kavSirebze, aseve Sengenis zonaze. ma-gram, vinaidan evrokavSiris liderebi amJamad saSinao saq-meebisa da sxva problemebis mogvarebiT, aseve populizmTan

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brZoliT arian dakavebuli, msgavsi ambiciuri politikis survili naklebia. amis mizezi, albaT, isicaa, rom am Sem-TxvevaSi mosalodnelia, rom populistebi apelirebdnen ara mxolod imigraciaze, aramed gafarToebis sakiTxzec, ro-gorc evrokavSiris status-kvosaTvis safrTxis Semcvelze. evropeli politikuri elitebis garkveuli radikalizaciis SemTxvevaSi aRmosavleT partniorobasTan dakavSirebuli axali iniciativebi da modelebis ganviTareba naklebad sa-varaudoa. Tumca SesaZloa, tyuilma populisturma dapir-ebebma sazogadoebis imedgacrueba gamoiwvios da „saSiSi mi-Tebi“ qanqarasaviT sapirispiro mimarTulebiT amoZravdes. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, Tu rogor ganviTardeba amJamindeli gaurkvevloba, qarTuli sazogadoebisaTvis da misi evrope-li megobrebisTvis mniSvnelovania nebismieri scenarisTvis mzad yofna, raTa Semcirdes ziani, xolo SesaZlebloba efeq-turad iqnes gamoyenebuli. maikl barnies Tanaxmad, breqsi-tis SemTxvevaSi, evrokavSiri did britaneTTan, rogorc „mesame saxelmwifosTan“ kooperaciis axali meqanizmebisa da formatebis SemuSavebas daiwyebs, SesaZloa, swored am for-matebidan saqarTvelom, neli integraciisa da evropeizaci-is ukve gamocdil gzaze winsvlis paralelurad, garkveuli STagonebisa da ideebis miReba moaxerxos. erTi ram naTelia _ saqarTvelom zedmiwevniT unda ganixilos evrokavSirTan urTierTobis yvela SesaZlo scenari da yovelives gaTval-iswinebiT grZelvadiani strategia unda Seqmnas _ adre Tu gvian is am SeupovrobisTvis dajildovdeba.

amrigad, SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom uaxloes momavalSi saqarTvelo arsebiT safrTxes ar unda elodebodes. imi sa T-vis, rom grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi riskebi minimumamde Se-am ciros da paralelurad Tavisi gacxadebuli miznisaken _ ev ropul da evroatlantikur institutebSi integraciisken Tanmimdevrulad waiwios, TiToeuli nabijis yuradRebiT ga-dadgmaa saWiro. amavdroulad, vinaidan msoflio mkveTr da, SesaZloa, saSiS evolucias ganicdis, saWiroa detalurad gaanalizdes evropasa da msoflioSi mimdinare movlenebis scenarebi, raTa qveyana mzad iyos movlenebis rogorc sauke-Teso, ise yvelaze cudi ganviTarebisaTvis, radgan msoflio evolucia swrafad da, SesaZloa, saSiSadac mimdinareobdes ucnobi mimarTulebiT.

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SeniSvnebi

1. Holly Allyat, “Global growth seen lower in 2019, UBS says, but it’s not all bad,” CNBC. Accessible at: www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/ubs-2019-outlook-global-growth-to-slow-in-2019.html

2. Roberto Belloni, Vincent Della Sala and Paul Viotti (eds.), Fear and Uncertainty in Europe: The Return to Realism?, 2019.

3. Economic Intelligence Unit Democracy Index. ix.: www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/01/31/democracy-continues-its-disturbing-retreat

4. Justin Huggler, “Germany’s AfD backs away from Dexit call as France’s Le Pen pledges to reform EU from within,” Telegraph. ix.: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/14/germanys-afd-backs-away-dexit-call-frances-le-pen-pledges-reform/

5. Economic Intelligence Unit Democracy Index. ix: www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/01/31/democracy-continues-its-disturbing-retreat

6. ix. natos generaluri mdivnis sityva miunxenis konferenciaze: www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_163791.htm?selectedLocale=fr

7. ukrainul samxedro RonisZiebaze saubrisas prezidentma petro poroSenkom ganacxada, rom ruseTma saerTo sazRvarze ganalaga 80,000-iani jari, 1,400 saartilerio da saraketo danadgari, 900 tanki, 2300 javSanteqnika, 500 sahaero Zalebi da 300 vertmfreni. ix.: “Putin defiant as Ukraine cites build-up of Russian forces along border,” Sydney Morning Herald, December 2, 2018. www.smh.com.au/world/europe/putin-defiant-as-ukraine-cites-build-up-of-russian-forces-along-border-20181202-p50jnw.html

8. The State of Implementation of the Association and Free Trade Agreements with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova with a Particular Focus on Ukraine and a Systemic Analysis of Key Sectors, Policy Department, European Parliament, November 2017. ix: www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/603836/EXPO_STU(2017)603836_EN.pdf

9. iqve.

10. ix.: Freedom House-is 2018 wlis angariSi: www.freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2018/georgia