2013 貨幣戰爭與世界經濟發展

1

02013

Chien-fu Jeff LinFacebook e-mail: [email protected]: http://www.wretch.cc/blog/clinjeff URL:http://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~clin/

00 2008~2012 2006~2012 2008~2011 2006-2010 2007 2000/8~2004/7 () 2003/7~2003/9 2003/1 2003/2DAAD 2003 2000 2003, 2002 2000/1 2002/12 2006/1 2007/12Salzburg Seminar 1998, 2005 (University of Chicago) 1995 /9 1996/8 Clive W. Granger 2003 1

2

2013

20133

4

201332013 2008 5

2008 2008200919296

2008

AIG

7

8

9

3032/ 10

9 A 11

12

GDP19781978200931220103 206030196010%19705%19804%1990200013

1980198592223Japan Money14

1989122938957.441990199232198981400015

16

201120112011198020126.92717

76:1 2011311()201120110922

18

-2010 (GDP) 9.2% 13.6% 2021 3 GDP 5% GDP 200%

[email protected]

20

21

22

J 1 1.63 (174 )23

24

25

2013/1/29 11240(Soros Fund Management)10(David Einhorn)(Greenlight Capital Inc.) (Dan Loeb)Third Point LLC(Kyle Bass)(Hayman Capital)26

27

[email protected]

1.7%29

30

EEA: European Economic Area, EFTA: The European Free Trade AssociationToday the EFTA Member States are Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. 200931

PIIGS 32

2008

33

:

(Merkozy)2012/5(Merkande)(Frangela)34

2012/ 9/122012/66/29 12002012( EFSF)(ESM)9/12 : Mark Rutte

35

36

37

2012/12/13 201311201342014320139

38

39

: QE()2009 1.3 2010 6000

[email protected]

QE3+QE3S2012/9/13(FOMC)(QE3)()2015(MBS)(OT)1240045041

(Operation Twist)30 OT

42

QE

[email protected]

fiscal cliff23144

45

Apple 46

47

(FTA)2011/7/1FTA2011/10/12FTA

48

49

19601970198019902000yearImitating foreign technologiesIndigenizing industrial technologiesDeveloping advanced technologiesPromoting creative research Stages of Development KIST(1966) MOST(1967) GRIs in 1970s NRDP(1982~) PRIs in 1980s Diversification of NRDP HAN (1992) Commercialization Basic research Generic technologies

ASEAN6.18GDP2000600020112.320301050

19792.3%200919%2010 GDP 39.7983RMB10.3%20119.2%2011GDP47.169.2%

[email protected]

9 1949 1979 [email protected]

QE4M2/GDP194%2012M297

[email protected]

M2GDP

[email protected]

2010/4

China Pig Index (CPI)10.7(1.65 2010 GDP27%

[email protected]

56---1.2.CPI 3%GDP 7.5%1.2.() JS

9.8

165758

59

60

61WiMAX

TPP ((Trans-Pacific Partnership)RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) ECFA(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement)

62

ECFAEconomic Cooperation Framework Agreement, ECFA

63

ECFA

64

ECFA 54112

[email protected]

Chart119641964196496.4196419640.219651965196591.4145190329196519650.2619661966196692.9290380658196619660.3119671967196787.825154321196719670.3819681968196890.9413580247196819680.419691969196988.6903034979196919690.4519701970197078.5070216049197019700.3819711971197180.7143261317197119710.3119721972197277.2780864198197219720.2919731973197364.0300925926197319730.2919741974197476.768287037197419740.519751975197579.0604295267197519750.4219761976197677.9197619760.719771977197760.7197719770.8119781978197857.5197819780.7619791979197963.9197919790.7119801980198063.7198019800.7719811981198155.1969586451198119810.8119821982198250198219821.0219831983198334198319831.1119841984198428198419841.2919851985198525198519851.5819861986198623198619861.7319871987198725198719871.8119881988198821198819881.8419891989198920198919891.8886919901990199019199019901.8735619911991199119199119911.9206619921992199217199219922.0305419931993199317199319932.2173219941994199424199419942.4411219951995199524199519952.3670319961996199626199619962.4249119971997199727199719972.4811519981998199831199819982.3417819991999199930199919992.2515120002000200028200020002.3931820012001200127200120012.5896120022002200227200220022.5319320032003200326200320032.6313420042004200425200420042.8499620052005200524.3200520052.9820062006200624.2528076805200620063.2220072007200726.1249816582200720073.47

private share, %government share, % (left axis)GERD/GDP, % (right axis)-(A)--: (B)(A/B)

: -(A)--: (B)(A/B)----196496.4196.400.2196589.990.79991.410.26196689.991.69892.930.31196783.686.94487.830.38196885.290.31290.940.4196981.888.34488.690.45197071.378.4378.510.3810,547.87,414.1-3,023.3-197172.280.86480.710.3110,666.77,285.8-2,968.9-197268.177.63477.280.2912,028.17,965.7-3,834.6-197355.664.49664.030.2915,628.58,352.8-6,940.1-197465.777.52676.770.538,182.117,777.2-5,035.4-197566.779.37379.060.4242,663.728,458.8-14,205.0-197664.80.202160493877.922.10.760,900.039,181.9-21,438.5-197747.71.272536687660.739.30.81108,286.051,256.047.356,580.052.2197848.81.178278688557.542.50.76152,418.073,722.048.477,971.051.2197954.51.172477064263.936.10.71174,039.091,322.052.579,248.045.5198051.61.23449612463.736.30.77211,727.0105,459.049.8102,445.048.4 198136878320355716522655.196958645144.8030413549-0.81368,783.0100.0197,377.053.5165,226.044.86,180.01.71982533074264327268147505052182.31.02533,074.0100.0263,283.049.4268,747.0-1,044.00.21983682216231169451047346661722.31.11682,216.0100.0230,021.033.7451,047.0-1,148.00.21984907194251472655772287270083.91.29907,194.0100.0244,895.027.0655,722.0-6,577.00.719851237074306811930263257578088.41.581,237,074.0100.0304,853.024.6930,263.0-1,958.00.2198616069103743311232579237792909.31.731,606,910.0100.0373,075.023.21,232,579.076.71,256.00.11987198522449024914949752575109726.51.811,985,224.0100.0489,270.024.61,494,975.075.3979.00.01988245415252294519312072179133134.21.842,454,152.0100.0522,563.021.31,931,207.078.7382.00.01989281725657502222422342080149164.71.888692,705,104.0100.0461,750.017.12,242,234.082.91,120.00.01990334986465100526988591981178796.81.873563,210,486.0100.0510,789.015.92,698,859.084.1839.00.01991415844180846433499771981216510.91.920664,158,441.0100.0808,464.019.43,342,601.080.47,376.00.21992498903185688241321491783245699.62.030544,989,031.0100.0856,882.017.24,110,546.082.421,603.00.419936152983102661751263661783277496.52.217326,152,983.0100.01,026,617.016.75,113,985.083.112,381.00.219947894746188022260145242476323407.12.441127,894,746.0100.01,880,222.023.86,011,453.076.13,071.00.019959440606228913171514752476398837.72.367039,440,606.0100.02,289,131.024.27,150,144.075.71,331.00.0199610878051285063880274142674448596.42.4249110,878,051.0100.02,850,638.026.28,013,779.073.713,635.00.1199712185807334481488409922773491134.82.4811512,185,807.0100.03,344,814.027.48,829,196.072.511,796.00.1199811336617349110378455143169484102.82.3417811,336,617.0100.03,491,103.030.87,837,081.069.18,433.00.1199911921752357437083473823070529499.72.2515111,921,752.0100.03,574,370.030.08,340,040.070.07,342.00.12000138485013816850100316502872578664.52.3931813,848,501.0100.03,816,850.027.610,023,405.072.48,245.00.1200116110521.984361534117489882773622122.62.5896116,110,522.0100.04,361,534.027.111,673,266.072.575,722.00.5200217325081.7794739957125851252773684263.52.5319317,325,081.8100.04,739,957.027.412,508,848.072.276,277.00.420031906868248762251419245726747246752.6313419,068,682.0100.04,876,225.025.614,113,599.074.078,858.00.42004221853435446050167392932575778444.62.8499622,185,343.0100.05,446,050.024.516,630,869.075.0108,424.00.5200524.32.9824,155,414.05,877,167.024.318,106,814.075.0171,433.00.7200624.33.2227,345,704.06,632,101.024.320,631,333.075.482,270.00.3200726.13.4731,301,377.08,177,479.026.123,054,192.073.769,706.00.2

&APage &Pprivate share, %government share, % (left axis)GERD/GDP, % (right axis)-(A)--: (B)(A/B)

2009 NTIS : : 19631,20096.43.6 19641,40019652,10019663,20019674,80019686,70019699,8007,2001,80080073.518.48.273.5:18.4: 8.2197010,50036.3240811064197110,700197212,000197315,600197438,200197542,700197660,90039,18221,43828064.335.20.564.3:35.2: 0.51977108,28651,25656,58045047.352.30.447.3:52.3: 0.41978152,41873,72277,97172548.451.20.548.4:51.2: 0.51979174,03991,32279,2483,46952.545.52.052.5:45.5: 2.01980211,727105,459102,4453,82349.848.41.849.8:48.4: 1.835.03883870451981293,131121,726165,2266,18041.556.42.141.5:56.4: 2.11982457,688187,898268,7471,04441.158.70.241.1:58.7: 0.21983621,749169,554451,0471,14827.372.50.227.3:72.5: 0.21984833,894171,595655,7226,57720.678.60.820.6:78.6: 0.819851,155,156222,936930,2631,95819.380.50.219.3:80.5: 0.219861,523,279289,4441,232,5791,25619.080.90.119:80.9: 0.119871,877,965382,0111,494,97597920.379.60.120.3:79.6: 0.119882,347,415415,8251,931,20738217.782.30.017.7:82.3: 0.019892,817,256573,9022,242,2341,12020.479.60.020.4:79.6: 0.019903,210,486510,7892,698,85983915.984.10.015.9:84.1: 0.031.243998635419914,158,441808,4643,342,6017,37619.480.40.219.4:80.4: 0.219924,989,031856,8824,110,54621,60317.282.40.417.2:82.4: 0.419936,152,9831,026,6175,113,98512,38116.783.10.216.7:83.1: 0.219947,894,7461,880,2226,011,4533,07123.876.10.023.8:76.1: 0.019959,440,6062,289,1317,150,1441,33124.275.70.024.2:75.7: 0.0199610,878,0512,850,6388,013,77913,63526.273.70.126.2:73.7: 0.1199712,185,8073,344,8148,829,19611,79627.472.50.127.4:72.5: 0.1199811,336,6173,491,1037,837,0818,43330.869.10.130.8:69.1: 0.117.081718089199911,921,7523,574,3708,340,0407,34230.070.00.130:70: 0.1200013,848,5013,816,85010,023,4058,24527.672.40.127.6:72.4: 0.1200116,110,5224,361,53411,673,26675,72227.172.50.527.1:72.5: 0.5200217,325,0824,739,95712,508,84876,27727.472.20.427.4:72.2: 0.4200319,068,6824,876,22514,113,59978,85825.674.00.425.6:74: 0.4200422,185,3435,446,05016,630,869108,42424.575.00.524.5:75: 0.5200524,155,4145,877,16718,106,814171,43324.375.00.724.3:75: 0.7200627,345,7046,632,10120,631,33382,27024.375.40.324.3:75.4: 0.311.6350841924

_ (2005 1970 ), C,D :-(A)--: (B)(A/B)----19651970197519801985199019952000200320042005196496.4196.400.2419642.110.542.7211.71,237.13,210.59,440.613,848.519,068.722,185.324,155.4196589.990.799684.540.26519652.11.90.261391.97.428.5105.5304.9510.82,289.13,816.94,876.25,446.15,877.2196689.991.6981279.170.31119660.23.014.2102.4930.32,698.97,150.110,023.414,113.616,630.918,106.8196783.686.9441742.500.3821967:61:3971:2967:3351:4925:7516:8424:7628:7226:7425:7425:75196885.290.3122339.390.4319686171675125162428262525196981.888.3442787.100.45-419693929334975847672747575197071.378.432900.950.3810,547.81007,414.1-3,023.3-2299.2-5197010.57.43.07129197172.280.8643415.130.3110,666.71007,285.8-2,968.9-2212.348-1197110.77.33.07129197268.177.6343671.630.2912,028.11007,965.7-3,834.6-2488.072-2197212.08.03.86832197355.664.4963365.450.2915,628.51008,352.8-6,940.1-2768.12-3197315.68.46.95545197465.777.5264411.370.538,182.110017,777.2-5,035.4-5147.746-4197438.217.85.07822197566.779.3734919.700.4242,663.710028,458.8-14,205.0-6591.349-5197542.728.514.26733197664.80.202160493877.922.10.760,900.010039,181.921,438.552.2279.653-1197660.939.221.46535197747.71.272536687660.739.30.81108,286.010051,256.047.356,580.051.24500.498.921977108.351.356.64852197848.81.178278688557.542.50.76152,418.010073,722.048.477,971.045.57250.594.431978152.473.778.04951197954.51.172477064263.936.10.71174,039.010091,322.052.579,248.048.434692102.941979174.091.379.25446198051.61.23449612463.736.30.77211,727.0100105,459.049.8102,445.044.838231.896.451980211.7105.5102.45149198136878320355716522655.196958645144.8030413549-0.81368,783.0100197,377.053.5165,226.0-61801.70.011981368.8197.4165.254461982533074264327268147505052182.31.02533,074.0100263,283.049.4268,747.0-10440.20.021982533.1263.3268.749511983682216231169451047346661722.31.11682,216.0100230,021.033.7451,047.0-11480.20.031983682.2230.0451.034661984907194251472655772287270083.91.29907,194.0100244,895.027.0655,722.0-65770.70.041984907.2244.9655.7277319851237074306811930263257578088.41.581,237,074.0100304,853.024.6930,263.076.719580.2101.5519851,237.1304.9930.32575198616069103743311232579237792909.31.731,606,910.0100373,075.023.21,232,579.075.312560.198.6119861,606.9373.11,232.623771987198522449024914949752575109726.51.811,985,224.0100489,270.024.61,494,975.078.79790.04931103.4219871,985.2489.31,495.025751988245415252294519312072179133134.21.842,454,152.0100522,563.021.31,931,207.082.93820.01557104.2319882,454.2522.61,931.221791989281725657502222422342080149164.71.888692,705,104.0100461,750.017.12,242,234.084.111200.0414101.2419892,705.1461.82,242.217831990334986465100526988591981178796.81.873563,210,486.0100510,789.015.92,698,859.080.48390.0261396.3519903,210.5510.82,698.916841991415844180846433499771981216510.91.920664,158,441.0100808,464.019.43,342,601.082.473760.17737102.0119914,158.4808.53,342.619811992498903185688241321491783245699.62.030544,989,031.0100856,882.017.24,110,546.083.1216030.43301100.7219924,989.0856.94,110.5178319936152983102661751263661783277496.52.217326,152,983.01001,026,617.016.75,113,985.076.1123810.2012293.0319936,153.01,026.65,114.0178319947894746188022260145242476323407.12.441127,894,746.01001,880,222.023.86,011,453.075.730710.038999.6419947,894.71,880.26,011.5247619959440606228913171514752476398837.72.367039,440,606.01002,289,131.024.27,150,144.073.713310.014197.9519959,440.62,289.17,150.12476199610878051285063880274142674448596.42.4249110,878,051.01002,850,638.026.28,013,779.072.5136350.1253498.81199610,878.12,850.68,013.82674199712185807334481488409922773491134.82.4811512,185,807.01003,344,814.027.48,829,196.069.1117960.096896.72199712,185.83,344.88,829.22773199811336617349110378455143169484102.82.3417811,336,617.01003,491,103.030.87,837,081.070.084330.07439100.83199811,336.63,491.17,837.13169199911921752357437083473823070529499.72.2515111,921,752.01003,574,370.030.08,340,040.072.473420.06158102.44199911,921.83,574.48,340.030702000138485013816850100316502872578664.52.3931813,848,501.01003,816,850.027.610,023,405.072.582450.05954100.15200013,848.53,816.910,023.42872200116110521.984361534117489882773622122.62.5896116,110,522.01004,361,534.027.111,673,266.072.2757220.4700299.71200116,110.54,361.511,673.32773200217325081.7794739957125851252773684263.52.5319317,325,081.81004,739,957.027.412,508,848.074.0762770.44027101.82200217,325.14,740.012,508.8277320031906868248762251419245726747246752.6313419,068,682.01004,876,225.025.614,113,599.075.0788580.41355100.93200319,068.74,876.214,113.626742004221853435446050167392932575778444.62.8499622,185,343.01005,446,050.024.516,630,869.075.01084240.48872100.04200422,185.35,446.116,630.92575200524.32.9924,155,414.01005,877,167.024.318,106,814.074.959651714330.70971100.05200524,155.45,877.218,106.82575

2013 貨幣戰爭與世界經濟發展

Documents

Transcript of 2013 貨幣戰爭與世界經濟發展