Scb เส้นทางสู่ aec-smes

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เส้นทางสู่ AEC -SMEs รุกรับอย่างไร (จาก SCB-SMEs)

Transcript of Scb เส้นทางสู่ aec-smes

  • 1. www.scbeic.com E-mail : [email protected] : +662 544 2953 0505Houseview EIC Online Update E-mail
  • 2. Executive summary SMEs SMEs SMEs ... SMEs SMEs ? SMEs 4 - 7 8 - 10 11 -17 18 - 25 26 - 39 40 - 50 51 - 55 56 - 70 71 - 73 SMEs global trend ? AEC SMEs ?
  • 3. 4 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center AEC SMEs ? SMEs ? SMEs 300 SMEs (labor- intensive industry) (turnover rate) (AEC) SMEs AEC (direct effect) (indirect effect) 300 8% 100% 100% 3% 4% SMEs 10-15
  • 4. 5 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center (skillmismatch) SMEs (labor productivity) SMEs SCB EIC SMEs SMEs 1-2 300SMEs 12% EIC 8% SMEs SMEs
  • 5. 6 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center AEC SMEs AEC AEC SMEs SMEs AEC SMEs global trend (border trade) SMEs SMEs SMEs (global trend) SMEs (social network) SMEs emerging markets (niche market) ... SMEs global trend SMEs AEC SMEs SMEs CLMV
  • 6. 7 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center Focus group SMEs (SCB Yong Entrepreneur Program YEP) 12 SCB EIC SMEs SMEs AEC SMEs
  • 7. 8 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center (business environment) SMEs 300 SMEs SMEs (labor-intensive industry) SMEs SMEs1 300 1 : SCB EIC SMEs 13.1 12.5 12.9 6.0 12.6 16.0 8.6 6.1 Small Medium 300 : % 300 : %
  • 8. (turnover rate) SMEs SMEs SMEs SMEs (AEC) SMEs AEC SMEs 3 9 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 2 : SCB EIC SMEs 7.5 15.6 12.1 2.0 11.2 10.8 8.9 16.0 Small Medium sector : % : %
  • 9. (non-tariff barriers) ( ) SMEs supply chain SMEs SMEs SMEs SMEs (craftsmanship) SMEs 10 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center (labor productivity) SMEs 3 : SCB EIC SMEs global trend : 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 2005 2011 CAGR 5% CAGR 4% Overall SMEs :
  • 10. 300SMEs (direct effect) (indirect effect) (cost pass-through) SMEs (direct effect) 2% -- (hospitality) SCB EIC 30% 80% 10% hospitality 30% 40% 11 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center (direct effect) 4 : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO) 2 (direct effect) 2 : % hospitality = 5.0% 4.0% 3.4% 2.1% 5.2%
  • 11. (indirect effect) (supply chain) 100% 8%100% 12 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 100% 8% 5 : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO) 2 = 100% : % : 7.6% 2 = 100% : %
  • 12. 100% (long-run cost pass-through) 25-35% 5 100% 2 1. (base case) 5 10% 50% 30% 2. (high pass-through case) 5 30% 70% 50% 20% (systemic shock) 13 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center
  • 13. 14 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 6 : SCB EIC 50% 70% + 40% 60% 30% 50% - 20% 40% 10% 30% 1 2 - 20% 40% - 20% 40% 50% 70% -hospitality - 20% 40% 30% 50% 10% 30% - 30% 50% - - 30% 50% - - 30% 50% 3G 30% 50% 30% 50% 30% 50% + 40% 60% - 20% 40% 1 2
  • 14. 100% 3% 100% hospitality pass-through 20% 23% 20% hospitality 15 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center
  • 15. 16 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 100% (indirect effect) 7 8 : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO) : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO) : % (indirect effect) : % : % (indirect effect) : % : 2.6% : 3.2%: 2.6% : 3.2%
  • 16. 100% 2 100% SCB EIC Input-Output table 2005 ( ) 2.3-2.4 3.3-3.4% GDP 2005 (margin) 4% hospitality margin 17 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 9 : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO) : % (margin) 100% (margin) 100% : %
  • 17. SMEs SMEs (labor productivity) 10-15 2005 2011 10-15 10-15 18 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center SMEs 3 10-15 10 : SCB EIC NESDB APO Productivity Database 2012 2011 : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ 10-15 10-15
  • 18. 4,900 2011 ( 2000) (2005-2011) 1.4% 2000-2005 3.8% 1.4% 2005-2011 12,000 2011 ( 2000) 10% (middle-income trap) 19 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 11 : SCB EIC World Bank 176.2 210.0 Real GDP 2005 Real GDP 2011 -1.5 18.2 (1% ) 17.1 33.8 (2% ) 2005-2011 : 2005-2011 :
  • 19. 12,000 2011 ( 2000) 1,700 5,000 40%46%14% 4,900 middle-income trap 20 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 12 : SCB EIC IMF World Bank ( 2011) : 2000 : %CAGR 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2011
  • 20. BOX: ? SCB EIC 103,000 3 260,000 21 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 13 : SCB EIC 14 15 23 25 2005 2011 36 39 1.5% 1.1% 20,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 : , %CAGR :
  • 21. (skill mismatch) World Bank 30% AEC 22 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center Skill mismatch 14 : SCB EIC () : -300 -200 -100 - 100 200 300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . . -300 -200 -100 - 100 200 300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 () :
  • 22. skill mismatch 1 1 3-7 . . 90% SMEs SMEs hospitality 23 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center
  • 23. SMEs SMEs 24 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center 15 : SCB EIC CEIC 2010 : (nominal price 2010) 32,275 22,26417,889 9,66817,399 2,3300 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
  • 24. 300 SMEsSMEs SMEs layout 3 (productivity) 300 outsource outsource (value-added) (white labeling) quantity discount (differentiation and uniqueness) BOX: SMEs 300 25 EIC l Economic Intelligence Center