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총괄 김 성 태

국내총생산 김 성 태

이 우 열

경기 정 대 희

김 동 영

소비 권 규 호

한 일 수

설비투자 권 규 호

한 일 수

건설투자 송 인 호

송 보 라

대외거래 정 규 철

이 유 진

노동시장 박 윤 수

박 소 현

물가 정 대 희

원 선 재

금융시장 김 지 섭

양 유 진

재정 김 성 태

이 우 열

세계경제 이 상 규

신 형 섭

구 희 일

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http://www.kdi.re.kr

2016.� 2

주요�경제지표 Major Economic Indicators

요약�및�평가 Summary and Assessment

경제동향�주요지표 Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

1. 국내총생산 년�불변가격(2010 ) ························································································· 37Gross Domestic Product (at 2010 Constant Prices)

2. 경기 ······································································································································ 39Economic Activity

3. 소비 ······································································································································ 41Consumption

4. 설비투자 ······························································································································ 43Equipment Investment

5. 건설투자 ····························································································································· 45Construction Investment

6-1. 수출 수입�및� 교역조건, ··································································································· 47Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade

6-2. 경상수지�및�금융계정 ······································································································ 49Current Account and Financial Account

7. 고용�및�임금 ····················································································································· 51Employment and Wage

8. 물가 ····································································································································· 53Price Indices

9-1. 금융시장� (I) ······················································································································· 55Financial Market (I)

9-2. 금융시장� (II) ······················································································································ 57Financial Market (II)

10-1. 세계경제�동향� (I) ·············································································································· 59Major Indicators of the World Economy (I)

10-2. 세계경제�동향� (II) ············································································································· 61Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

Contents

주요�경제지표Major Economic Indicators

전년동기대비�증가율( , % / Year-on-Year % Change)

2014 20152015 2016

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 11 12 1

전산업생산All Industry Production

1.3 1.5 1.0 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.3 -

광공업생산Industrial Production

0.0 -0.6 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -1.9 -

서비스업생산Service Production

2.2 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 -

소매판매액Retail Sales Index

1.7 3.4 1.6 2.9 3.2 3.7 5.6 3.5 -

설비투자지수Equipment Investment Index

5.2 6.2 8.4 5.2 10.0 1.7 -4.9 -1.0 -

건설기성액(불변)Value of Construction Completed(Constant Price)

-0.8 2.1 -2.0 -3.9 5.9 7.8 5.9 12.2 -

수출(통관)Exports (f.o.b.)

2.3 -8.0 -3.0 -7.3 -9.5 -11.9 -4.9 -14.1 -18.5

수입(통관)Imports (c.i.f.)

1.9 -16.9 -15.6 -15.6 -18.7 -17.8 -17.6 -19.2 -20.1

무역수지(십억달러)Balance of Trade (Billion US Dollars)

47.2 90.4 21.7 24.6 20.2 23.9 10.3 0.7 0.5

실업률Unemployment Rate

3.5 3.6 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.2 -

취업자�수Number of Employed

2.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 2.0 -

소비자물가Consumer Price

1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.8

국고채3-year Treasury Bonds

2.10 1.66 1.72 1.79 1.57 1.66 1.79 1.66 1.56

종합주가지수KOSPI

1,916 1,961 2,041 2,074 1,963 1,961 1,992 1,961 1,912

원 달러�환율/Won/Dollar Exchange Rate

1,099.2 1,172.0 1,105.0 1,124.1 1,194.5 1,172.0 1,150.4 1,172.0 1,208.4

경기선행지수OECDOECD Composite Leading Indicator

0.3 - -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 - -0.6 - -

유가(두바이, 달러/배럴)Oil Prices (Dubai, US$/Barrel)

96.6 50.7 52.1 60.5 49.7 40.8 41.6 34.9 26.9

주 국고채�수익률 종합주가지수 원 달러�환율은�기말�기준 유가 두바이 는�기간평균�기준임: / , ( ) .⋅ ⋅

1

요약�및�평가※

※ 별도의�언급이�없을�경우�모든�증가율은�전년동월대비�기준임.

최근�일부�지표의�부진이�지속되면서�우리�경제의�성장세가�점차�둔화될�가

능성을�시사하고�있음.

내수� 회복세가� 민간소비를� 중심으로� 다소� 완만해지고� 있으며 수출은� 감소,

세가�확대되면서�부진이�심화

민간소비가╺ 아직까지�완만한�개선� 추세를�유지하고�있으나 금년�들어� 소비활성화,

대책의�영향이�소멸되는�가운데�소비심리도�위축되고�있음.

투자는�건설투자가�비교적�양호한�회복세를�유지하고�있으나 설비투자는�감소세,╺

를�지속하면서�부진한�상황

한편 수출은� 중국을� 중심으로� 세계경제� 성장세가� 둔화되고� 유가도� 예상보다� 큰�,╺

폭으로� 하락하면서� 대부분의� 주력� 품목에서� 큰� 폭의� 감소세를� 지속하고� 있으며,

향후에도�부진을�지속할�가능성이�높은�것으로�판단됨.

생산� 측면에서는� 서비스업생산이� 비교적� 양호한� 흐름을� 나타내고� 있으나,

광공업생산�및�출하는�수출�감소세가�확대되면서�부진이�심화

╺ 서비스업생산은� 금융 보험업 보건 사회복지� 등을� 중심으로� 아직까지는� 최근의,⋅ ⋅

증가세를�유지하면서�경제�전반의�성장세를�뒷받침하고�있음.

╺ 그러나 광공업생산�및�출하는�수출�부진이�지속되는�가운데�내수�회복세도�둔화된 데

기인하여�감소폭이�확대됨.

2

경기: 서비스업생산� 증가세가� 대체로� 유지되고� 있으나 광공업생산과� 출하의� 부진이�,

심화되면서�경기�회복세가�제약되고�있음.

월� 중� 전산업생산은� 여타� 산업의� 개선에도� 불구하고� 광공업생산의� 부진으로� 전월12

과�유사한�전년동월대비� 의�증가율을�기록(2.2%) 2.3%

서비스업생산은� 전년동월대비� 의� 증가율을� 기록하며� 전월 에� 이어� 비교적� 양3.0% (3.2%)╺

호한�증가세를�지속

반면 광공업생산은�자동차, (0.8%╺ → 및�-3.3%) ICT(5.6%→ 등�주요�업종을�중심1.3%)

으로�부진이�심화되면서�전월 보다�감소폭이�확대된� 의�증가율을�기록(-0.1%) 1.9%–

제조업� 평균가동률도� 를� 기록하며� 여전히� 작년� 평균 을� 하회하고� 있어� 제73.8% (76.1%)╺

조업생산이�저조한�수준에�머물러�있음을�시사

광공업생산지수 및�서비스업생산지수(3MA) (3MA)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�광공업생산지수(3MA) �서비스업생산지수(3MA)

(전년동기대비,�%,�3개월�이동평균)

제조업�출하는�수출출하와�내수출하가�모두�둔화되면서�감소폭이�확대되었으며 재고,

율은�하락하는�모습

수출출하(-3.1%╺ → 가� 부진을� 지속하는� 가운데� 내수출하-3.9%) (1.3%→ 도� 크게�0.4%)

둔화되면서 제조업�출하는�전월 보다�낮은�전년동월대비� 의�증가율을�기록, (-0.8%) 1.6%–

한편 제조업� 재고율 재고 출하� 비율 은� 자동차� 및� 등을� 중심으로� 전월 보다�, ( / ) ICT (128.1%)╺

낮은� 를�기록하며�재고가�일부�조정되고�있음을�시사122.7%

3

출하지수 와�재고율(3MA)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

109

112

115

118

121

124

127

130

�출하지수(좌,�3MA) �재고율(우)

(%)(전년동기대비,�%,�3개월�이동평균)

동행지수� 순환변동치는� 여전히� 기준치 를� 상회하고는� 있으나 전월 보다�(100) , (101.1)

소폭�하락한� 를�기록100.9

선행지수╺ 순환변동치는�투자�관련�지표들의�부진에�주로�기인하여�전월 보다�하락한(104.3)

을�기록103.8

동행지수�순환변동치와�선행지수�순환변동치

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�동행지수�순환변동치 �선행지수�순환변동치

(기준=100)

4

소비 민간소비의�완만한�개선�추세는�유지되고�있으나 금년�들어�소비활성화�대책의�: ,

효과가�빠르게�소멸되고�있는�것으로�판단됨.

월� 중� 소매판매액지수는� 비교적� 양호한� 전년동월대비� 의� 증가율을� 기록하였12 3.5%

으나 향후에는�정책효과가�소멸되면서�소매판매의�회복세가�약화될�것으로�사료됨, .

형태별로는� 내구재가� 승용차� 판매 를� 중심으로� 증가하며� 양호한� 흐름을�(34.6%) 13.6%╺

이어가고�있으나 준내구재 와�비내구재 는�회복세가�둔화되고�있음, (-4.4%) (1.5%) .

╺ 한편 금년�들어�소비활성화�대책의�효과가�소멸되면서�그동안�소매판매�회복을�주도한�국산,

자동차의�내수판매가� 월�중�전년동월대비� 감소한�것으로�나타남1 4.8% .

서비스업생산은�전년동월대비� 증가하며�완만한�회복세를�지속하고�있으나 민간3.0% ,

소비�관련�업종의�증가세는�상대적으로�낮은�수준에�머물러�있음.

월�중�승용차�판매�증가의�영향에도�불구하고�도소매업은� 증가하는�데�그쳤으며12 2.0% ,╺

숙박�및�음식점업은�전년동월대비� 감소하면서�부진을�지속0.6%

한편 월�중� 소비자심리지수는�전월보다� 하락한� 을� 기록하여�소비심리가�지, 1 2p 100

속적으로�위축되고�있음.

╺ 구성항목별로는� 전월에� 이어� 현재경기판단 과� 향후경기전망 이� 큰� 폭으로� 하락하여(-7p) (-6p)

소비자심리지수의�하락을�주도

소매판매액지수 및�소비자심리지수(3MA)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

96

100

104

108

112

116

�소매판매액지수(좌,�3MA) �소비자심리지수(우)

�(전년동기대비,�%,�3개월�이동평균) �(기준=100)

5

설비투자: 설비투자는�기계류를�중심으로�점차�부진해지는�모습

월�중� 설비투자지수는�기계류의�부진이�지속되면서�전월 에�이어�감소 전년12 (-4.9%) (

동월대비� 를�기록-1.0%)

형태별로는� 운송장비가� 증가하였으나 설비투자의� 대부분을� 차지하는� 기계류는�27.7% ,╺

감소하며�부진을�지속12.1%

기계류 전년동월대비* ( , %): 월 월 월 월(9 ) -3.6 (10 ) 1.0 (11 ) -10.4 (12 ) -12.1→ → →

설비투자와� 관련이� 높은� 지표들도� 대체로� 부진한� 모습을� 보이고� 있어� 단기간� 내에�

설비투자가�큰�폭으로�개선되기는�어려운�것으로�판단됨.

기계류� 내수출하가� 감소하며� 최근의� 부진을� 지속하고� 있는� 가운데 월� 중� 기계류�7.3% , 1╺

수입액� 속보치 도� 감소하여� 월의� 기계류� 설비투자도� 크게� 개선되기� 어(1.1~1.20) 9.3% 1

려울�것으로�사료됨.

제조업� 평균가동률도� 여전히� 매우� 낮은� 수준인� 에� 머물러� 있어� 설비투자� 수요가�73.8%╺

낮은�수준에�정체되어�있음을�시사

다만 국내기계수주는�화력발전소�건설 원자로�수주� 등� 일시적인�증가요인에�기인하여�전, ,╺

월 의�감소에서� 증가로�전환(-14.7%) 35.6%

설비투자지수 및�(3MA) 민간국내기계수주(3MA)

-10

0

10

20

30

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�설비투자지수(3MA) �민간�국내기계수주(3MA)


6

건설투자: 건설투자는� 건축부문을� 중심으로� 증가세가� 확대되고� 있으나 미분양� 주택�,

수가�빠르게�증가하고�있어�중장기적으로�건설업�전반에�부담요인으로�작용할�가능성

월� 중� 건설기성 불변 은� 토목부문의� 부진이� 완화된� 가운데� 건축부문의� 상승세가�12 ( )

확대되면서�전월 보다�높은� 의�증가율을�기록(5.9%) 12.2%

╺ 부문별로는� 토목부문이� 전월 의� 감소에서� 증가 로� 전환되었으며 건축부문도(-10.6%) (3.0%) ,

전월 보다�높은� 증가(15.8%) 19.3%

건설수주는�건축부문이�감소로�전환되었으나�토목부문의�증가세가�유지되면서�전년동

월대비� 증가9.8%

공종별로는� 건축부문이� 주택 을� 중심으로� 감소하였으나 토목부문은� 전월(-33.2%) 8.6% ,╺

에�이어� 의�높은�증가율을�기록(86.4%) 52.0%

한편, 미분양�주택�수가�전월 호 보다� 호�증가한� 호를�기록하며(49,724 ) 11,788 61,512

빠르게�확대되고�있음.

다만 아파트거래량이�전년동월대비� 감소하였으나 거래량�자체는�여전히�높은�수준, 8.5% ,╺

필지 에� 머물고� 있어� 아직까지는� 주택매매시장이� 위축되고� 있는� 것으로� 평가하기�(89,344 )

어려움.

미분양�주택�수�및�건설기성액(3MA)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

�미분양�주택�수(좌) �건설기성액(우,�3MA)

(전년동기대비,�%,�3개월�이동평균)(천호)

7

수출: 수출은� 중국� 등� 신흥국의� 성장세� 둔화� 및� 유가� 하락으로� 인해� 대부분의� 주요�

품목에서�큰�폭으로�감소하며�부진이�심화

월� 중� 수출은� 주요국의� 경기� 둔화가� 지속되고� 유가가� 하락하는� 가운데 조업일수도�1 ,

감소하면서�전월 보다�낮은�전년동월대비� 의�증가율을�기록(-14.1%) 18.5%–

품목별로는� 선박 석유류 자동차� 및� 부품 등�(-32.3%), (-26.5%), (-18.7%), ICT(-17.4%)╺

주요�품목에서�큰�폭으로�감소하며�전반적으로�부진한�모습

지역별로는� 중국으로의� 수출이� 급격하게� 감소 하는� 가운데 미국 일본(-21.5%) , (-9.2%),╺

아세안 등으로의�수출도�비교적�큰�폭으로�감소(-18.2%), (-19.7%)

╺ 일평균�수출액도�전월 에�이어� 큰� 폭 으로�감소하면서�조업일수의�영향을(-14.1%) (-15.4%)

제외하더라도�수출이�부진한�상황임을�시사

수입은�유가가�하락하면서�전월 보다�낮은� 의�증가율을�기록(-19.2%) 20.1%–

국제유가 기준 는�월평균� 달러를�기록하며�전년동월대비� 하락(Dubai ) 26.9 41.3%╺

무역수지는� 수출� 부진으로� 전년동월 억달러 에� 비해� 소폭� 축소된� 억달러의�(58.1 ) 53.0

흑자를�기록

일평균�수출액 과�일평균�수입액(3MA) (3MA)

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�일평균�수출액(3MA) �일평균�수입액(3MA)


8

월�중�국제수지12

경상수지는� 상품수지가� 크게� 개선되면서� 전년동월 억달러 에� 비해� 흑자규(69.5 )

모가�확대된� 억달러를�기록74.6

╺ 상품수지는� 수입 이� 수출 보다� 빠르게� 감소하면서 전년동월 억(-21.0%) (-11.9%) , (75.6

달러 에�비해�흑자폭이�크게�확대된� 억달러를�기록) 107.7

서비스수지는� 여행수지 억달러 와�건설수지 억달러 가�악화된� 데� 주로� 기인(-9.5 ) (13.4 )╺

하여�전년동월 억달러 에�비해�적자폭이�확대된� 억달러를�기록(-6.4 ) -17.0

본원소득수지는� 투자소득배당� 지급이� 증가하며� 전년동월 억달러 의� 흑자에서� 적(8.9 )╺

자 억달러 로�전환(-5.9 )

╺ 년�경상수지는�전년 억달러 보다�흑자폭이�확대된� 억달러를�기록2015 (843.7 ) 1,059.6

계절조정�경상수지 와�교역조건(3MA) (3MA)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

�계절조정�경상수지(좌,�3MA) �교역조건(우,�3MA)

(전년동기대비,�%,�3개월�이동평균)(억달러,�3개월�이동평균)

금융계정은�순자산�증가가�전월 억달러 보다�축소된� 억달러를�기록(87.0 ) 77.6

╺ 직접투자는�내국인의�해외직접투자�증가� 등으로�전월 억달러 보다�확대된� 억(9.0 ) 14.2

달러�증가를�기록

╺ 증권투자는�외국인의�국내투자�감소에�기인하여�전월 억달러 보다�확대된� 억(51.3 ) 74.6

달러 증가를�기록

╺ 기타투자는�대출�감소� 및� 무역신용�부채의�증가�등으로�전월 억달러 보다�축소된(16.6 )

억달러3.8 증가를�기록

금융계정이�순유출입액�기준에서�자산 부채의�증감�기준으로�변경됨* .⋅

9

노동시장: 제조업⋅상용직�중심의�고용증가세가�대체로�유지되는�가운데 일시적�요인,

으로�농림어업�취업자�감소폭이�전월에�비해�크게�축소

월� 중� 취업자는� 전년동월대비� 만� 천명 이� 증가하여� 전월 만� 천명12 49 5 (2.0%) (28 5 ,

에�비해�증가폭이�크게�확대1.1%)

산업별로는� 제조업의� 취업자� 증가폭이� 전월 만명 에� 이어� 만� 천명 의�(19 , 4.4%) 14 6 (3.3%)╺

양호한� 증가세를� 유지하였고 농림어업은� 기상여건의� 영향으로� 취업자� 감소폭이� 전월 만, (-16

천명 에�비해�크게�줄어든� 만� 천명을�기록8 , -11.2%) 2 7

종사상�지위별로는�상용직 만� 천명 의� 양호한� 증가세가�유지되는�가운데 농림(54 8 , 4.4%) ,╺

어업의� 비중이�높은� 비임금근로자의�감소폭 만� 천명 은�전월 만� 천명 에�(-11 4 , -1.7%) (-21 8 )

비해�크게�축소

월� 중� 계절조정� 고용률 세 과� 경제활동참가율은� 전월에� 비해� 각각�12 (15~64 ) 0.4%p

및� 상승한� 와� 를�기록0.5%p 66.3% 63.0%

계절조정�실업률은�전월과�동일한� 의�낮은�수준을�유지3.4%╺

월� 중� 상용근로자� 인� 이상� 사업체의� 명목임금 상용근로자 정액급여 은� 전년동월11 5 ( , )

대비� 상승하여�완만한�상승세를�유지3.8%

년� 월 월 월 월 월(’15 7 ) 3.6% (8 ) 3.2% (9 ) 3.1% (10 ) 3.5% (11 ) 3.8%→ → → →╺

취업자�증감 계절조정�경제활동참가율�및�고용률 세, (15~64 )

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

60.5

61.5

62.5

63.5

64.5

65.5

66.5

�취업자�증감(좌) �계절조정�경제활동참가율(우) �계절조정�15~64세�고용률(우)

(전년동월대비, 천명) (%)

10

물가: 월�중� 소비자물가는�공업제품가격이�하락으로�전환되면서�1 전월 보다� 낮은�(1.3%)

전년동월대비� 의�상승률을�기록0.8%

상품물가는�석유류�가격의�하락폭이�축소되었으나 담뱃값�인상효과가�소멸됨에�따라, 전

월 보다�낮은�전년동월대비� 의�상승률을�기록(0.0%) 1.1%–

╺ 농축수산물가격은� 과실류가격(1.7%→ 의� 하락을� 중심으로� 전월 보다� 다소�-2.4%) (2.9%)

낮은�전년동월대비� 의�상승률을�기록2.4%

╺ 공업제품가격은�석유류�가격(-15.6%→ 의�하락폭이�축소되었으나 담뱃값�인상효과�-10.3%) ,

소멸에�따른�기타�공업제품가격(13.3%→ 의�상승률이�크게�낮아지면서�0.4%) 전월 의(0.4%)

상승에서�전년동월대비� 의�하락으로�전환0.8%–

* 주류�및�담배 전년동월대비( , %): (’ 년� 월15 11 ) 50.0→ 월(12 ) 50.3→ (’ 년� 월16 1 ) 0.6

한편,╺ 전기 수도 가스는�도시가스요금�인하로�인해�전월 보다�낮은�전년동월대비�(-7.1%)⋅ ⋅

의�상승률을�기록8.1%–

서비스가격은� 개인서비스� 가격을� 중심으로� 전월 보다� 소폭� 높은� 전년동월대비�(2.3%)

의�2.4% 상승률을�기록

농산물�및�석유류를�제외한�근원물가는�담뱃값�인상효과가�소멸되면서�전월 보다(2.4%)

크게�낮은�전년동월대비� 의�상승률을�기록1.7%

아파트�매매가격과�전세가격�상승률은� 전월 와� 보다�낮은� 전월대비� 와(0.2% 0.3%) 0.1%

의�상승률을�기록0.2%

소비자물가�추이�및�부문별�기여도

-1

0

1

2

3

4

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�농축수산물 �공업제품 �서비스

�전기�· 수도�· 가스 �소비자물가 �근원물가

(전년동기대비, %, %p)

주 부문별�기여도의�합은�반올림으로�총지수의�증감률과�일치하지�않을�수�있음: .

11

금융시장: 국내�금융시장은�대외� 불확실성의�확대에�주로� 기인하여�원화가치와�주가가

하락하는�등�다소�불안한�모습

월�말� 원 달러� 환율은�중국�증시�급락� 등의�대외�불확실성� 확대에�기인하여� 전월말1 /

원(1,172.0 )대비� 원�상승한� 원을�기록36.4 1,208.4

원 엔�환율은�전월말 원/100 (972.0 )╺ 대비� 원�상승한� 원을�기록45.1 1,017.1

종합주가지수는� 대외� 불확실성� 확대에� 따른� 투자심리� 악화� 및� 외국인의� 국내� 주식�

순매도에�기인하여�전월말 대비� 하락한� 을�기록(1,961.3) 49.2p 1,912.1

국고채 년�만기 금리는�외국인의�국채선물�순매수 유럽�및�일본의�완화적�통화정책(3 ) ,

기조�확대�등으로�전월말 대비� 하락한� 를�기록(1.66%) 10bp 1.56%

한편 월�중� 은행의� 가계대출은� 대출금리� 상승에도� 불구하고� 주택담보대출을�중심, 12

으로� 조원이�증가하여�최근의�높은�증가세를�지속6.9

은행�가계대출 기간�중� 증감액 조원( , ): (╺ ’ 년� 월15 8 ) 7.7 → 월(9 ) 6.2 (→ 월10 ) 9.0

월 월(11 ) 7.5 (12 ) 6.9→ →

환율�및�주가

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2015 2016

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

�원/달러(좌) �원/100엔(좌) KOSPI(우)

(원)

12

세계경제: 세계경제의�성장세가� 둔화되는� 가운데 신흥국의�경기둔화� 및� 금융시장� 불안, ,

국제유가의�변동성�확대�등�다수의�하방위험도�상존

선진국은� 유로존이� 완만한� 회복세를� 보인� 반면 일본은� 경기� 전반이� 미약한� 상태에�,

머물러�있으며�미국도�작년� 분기에�성장세가�크게�둔화된�것으로�나타남4/4 .

주요�선진국의�경제성장률� � � � � � � � � � � � � � 주요�선진국의�소매판매

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2013 2014 2015

�미국 �유로존 �일본

(전기대비�연율,�%)

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�미국 �유로존 �일본

(전년동기대비,�%)

신흥시장국은� 원자재� 수출� 국가들을� 중심으로� 주요� 지표들이� 모두� 예상을� 하회하면

서�실물경기의�부진이�심화되고�있음을�시사

주요�신흥국의�수출� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �주요�신흥국의�제조업심리지수

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�중국 �브라질 �러시아


42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�중국 �인도 �브라질

(기준=50)

13

미국경제는� 작년� 분기� 성장률 전기대비� 연율� 이� 둔화되었으나 향후에는�4/4 ( 0.7%) ,

민간소비를�중심으로�완만한�회복세를�유지할�것으로�예상되고�있음.

다만 산업생산�및� 일부� 선행지표가�부진한�가운데 수출도�감소세를�지속하면서�전반적인�, ,╺

성장세가�제한된�범위에�머무를�것으로�판단됨.

미국의�생산과�개인소비지출� � � � � � � � � � �미국의�취업자�수와�소비자심리지수�

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

�산업생산(좌) �개인소비(우)


0

10

20

30

40

50

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

75

80

85

90

95

100

�취업자�수(좌) �소비자심리지수(우)

(3개월�이동평균)(전기대비,�만명)

유로존�경제는�생산과�소비�증가세가�전월에�비해�둔화되었으나 수출이�다시�확대되고,

주요�심리지수도�상승하는�등�완만한�회복세는�유지되고�있음.

╺ 양적완화정책이�지속되면서�경기회복에�대한�기대가�높은�상황이나 대외�불확실성의�확대로,

회복세가�빠르게�확대되기는�어려울�것으로�판단됨.

유로존의�생산과�수출� � � � � � � � � � � � � 유로존의�제조업심리지수와�경기체감지수

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9

2013 2014 2015

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

�산업생산(좌) �수출(우)


49

50

51

52

53

54

55

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

�제조업PMI(좌) �경기체감지수(우)

(기준=100)(기준=50)

14

일본경제는� 생산과� 소비� 관련� 지표가� 예상보다� 부진하고� 수출도� 크게� 감소하는� 등�

실물경기가�재차�위축되고�있음.

월� 중� 소비는� 연료� 및� 자동차� 판매의� 부진으로� 전월에� 이어� 의� 낮은� 증가율을�12 -1.1%╺

기록하였으며 수출도�대신흥국을�중심으로� 감소, 8.0%

일본의�생산�및�경기선행지수� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 일본의�수출과�수입

-5

0

5

10

15

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

95

100

105

110

115

�산업생산(좌) �경기선행지수(우)

(전년동기대비,�%) (2010=100)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�수출 �수입


중국경제는� 수출이� 감소세를� 지속하는� 가운데� 소비를� 제외한� 주요� 내수지표도� 둔화

되는�등�경기�전반이�부진한�모습

분기� 경제성장률은� 소매판매가� 개선되었으나 수출과� 투자가� 모두� 부진한� 것으로� 나타4/4 ,╺

나면서�전분기 보다�낮은�전년동기대비� 를�기록(6.9%) 6.8%

중국의�생산�및�소매판매� � � � � � � � � � �중국의�고정자산투자와�경기선행지수�

4

6

8

10

12

14

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�산업생산 �소매판매


8

10

12

14

16

18

20

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

97

98

99

100

101

102

�고정자산투자(좌) �경기선행지수(우)

(기준=100)(전년동기대비,�%)

15

월�중�국제유가는�대이란�제재�해제에�따른�공급확대�우려와�주요국�실물경기�부진의1

영향으로� 달러대까지�하락한�가운데�변동성도�크게�확대됨20 .

국제유가가�하락함에�따라� 지수�등�주요�상품가격지수는�낮은�수준에�머물러�있음CRB .╺

╺ 한편 주요�유가전망기관들은� 년�유가 기준 가�연평균� 달러� 내외를�기록하며, 2016 (Brent ) 40

년�대비� 이상�하락할�것으로�전망하고�있음2015 20% .

국제유가� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �주요�상품가격지수

20

40

60

80

100

120

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

Dubai WTI

(달러/배럴)

160

200

240

280

320

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

CRB(좌) �로이터(우)

주 로이터지수는� 월� 일�기준: 1 22 .

세계경제의�성장률� 전망치가� 하향� 조정되는�가운데 리스크�등� 하방위험도�상당한, G2

수준에�머물고�있음.

최근� 는� 년� 세계경제의� 성장률을� 신흥국� 성장세� 둔화를� 반영하여� 로� 하향�IMF 2016 3.4%╺

조정하였으며 중국경제�불안 미국�금리인상�등의�하방위험이�세계경제의�성장세를�제약할�, ,

것으로�평가

주요국의� 년도�경제성장률�전망2016 (IMF)

(%)

전망시점 세계 미국 유로존 일본 중국 브라질 러시아

년� 월2015 10 3.6 2.8 1.6 1.0 6.3 -1.0 -0.6

년� � 월2016 1 3.4 2.6 1.7 1.0 6.3 -3.5 -1.0

자료: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 2016.

16

국제금융시장 중국의�증시� 불안� 및� 위안화� 가치� 하락 신흥국의� 성장세� 둔화로� 국제: ,

금융시장의�변동성이�크게�확대�

안전자산� 선호심리가� 확대되면서� 장기금리가� 하락하고 및� 신흥시장채권지수와�, VIX

기초여건이�취약한�일부�신흥국의� 프리미엄이�크게�상승CDS

주요국의�장기금리� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 지수와�신흥시장채권지수�VIX

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2015 2016

�미국 �독일 �일본

(%)

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2015 2016

350

380

410

440

470

500

530

VIX(좌) �신흥시장채권지수(우)

중국� 등� 신흥국� 관련� 불확실성이� 확대됨에� 따라� 대다수� 신흥국의� 환율이� 상승한� 가

운데 주요국의�주가는�하락하는�모습,

주요국의�주가�변화율과�달러화�대비�통화�절상률(1월�말�현재 전월말대비, )

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

미국 유로 일본 중국 러시아 인도 인도네시아 한국

�주가�변화율 �통화�절상률

(%)

17

전문가�경제전망�설문조사� 년� 분기(2016 1/4 )

국내�경제�전문가들은�중국�등�주요�신흥국의�경기둔화에�따른�수출�부진이�

성장세를� 제약하면서� 우리� 경제가� 년에� 의� 성장률을� 기록할� 것2016 2.7%

으로�전망

수출은� 세계경제의� 성장세가� 예상보다� 둔화되고� 저유가� 상황도� 지속되면서�

내외� 감소하는� 가운데 경상수지는� 금년에도� 큰� 폭의� 흑자기조가� 지속1% ,

될�것으로�예상

소비자물가는� 연초에� 대� 초반에서� 매우� 완만하게� 상승하여 연간으로�1% ,

의�비교적�낮은�상승률을�기록할�전망1.3%

실업률은� 작년과� 유사한� 중반� 수준을� 유지할� 것으로� 예상되는� 가운데3% ,

취업자�수는�국내�실물경기�부진�등이�반영되면서�증가�규모가�소폭�축소될�

것으로�전망

일부� 전문가는� 경기둔화에� 대응한� 확장적� 거시경제정책의� 운용을� 강조하는�

가운데�기업�구조조정과�가계부채�안정화�대책�등의�필요성�제기

한편 다수의� 응답자들은� 현재의� 기준금리가� 년� 하반기까지� 유지될� 것, 2016

으로�전망하고�있음.

년�우리�경제에�대한�전문가�설문조사�결과2016

억달러 만명(%, , )

조사시점1) GDP 수출4) 경상수지 실업률 취업자�수5) 소비자물가

년� 분기2015 2/4 3.3 3.6 820 3.5 43 1.8

년� 분기2015 3/4 3.1 3.8 913 3.6 35 1.6

년� 분기2015 4/4 2) 2.8 1.6 920 3.6 32 1.4

년� 분기2016 1/4 3) 2.7 -0.8 966 3.6 31 1.3

주: 1) 국내�경제전망�전문가� 명을�대상으로�각각�작년� 월 월 월 금년� 월�말에�설문조사를�실시함22 4 , 7 , 10 , 1 .

2) 반기별�전망치�평균으로�연간�수치�계산.

분기별�전망치�평균으로�연간�수치�계산3) .

통관기준�자료4) .

전년동기대비�증감5) .

18

Summary and Assessment※

※ All growth figures are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise noted. This document is an Englishtranslation of the original Korean version; the Korean version takes precedence in case of any ambiguitiesor discrepancies.

The Korean economy recently exhibited steep declines in certain

indicators, signalling a gradual deceleration.

Domestic demand has moderated mainly in private consumption

while export growth dipped further.

╺ Despite the continued moderate recovery in private consumption, sentiment

has begun to recede significantly starting from 2016 as the effect of

consumption stimulus policy loses its momentum.

╺ While construction investment maintains a recovery pace, facilities investment

continues to shrink.

Meanwhile, exports exhibited sharp falls in most key items as the global╺

economy slowed with China leading the trend and oil prices dropping

further than expected.

On the production side, services production is in a relatively

favorable condition while mining and manufacturing production

and shipments have deteriorated further due to the disappointing

exports.

╺ Services production has maintained its recent growth momentum, upholding

the overall economic growth.

However, mining and manufacturing production and shipments have╺

declined further on continuing sluggishness in exports.

19

Economic Activity: Mining and manufacturing production and shipments

weakened, weighing down on the growth momentum in overall production.

December's all industry production, despite improvements in other industries,

stalled at a 2.3% growth as mining and manufacturing production posted

a poor performance.

Services production continued on a relatively high growth of 3.0%, maintaining╺

last month’s upward trail (3.2%).

Meanwhile, mining and manufacturing production dropped further to record a –╺

1.9% growth, lower than a month ago (-0.1%), led by key items such as

motor vehicles (0.8% -3.3%) and ICT (5.6% 1.3%).→ →

The manufacturing capacity utilization rate stood at 73.8%, still hovering lower╺

than last year’s average (76.1%), signalling a sluggishness in overall manufacturing

production.

Mining and Manufacturing Production (3MA)and Service Production Index (3MA)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

Mining and Manufacturing Production Index(3MA) Service Production Index(3MA)

(Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA)

Manufacturing shipments decreased further in both exports and domestic

shipments and the inventory-to-shipments ratio also fell.

Manufacturing shipments recorded a 1.6% growth, down from a month ago–╺

(-0.8%) as domestic shipments tumbled (1.3% 0.4%) amid a continuing→

contraction in export shipments (-3.1% -3.9%).→

The manufacturing inventory-to-shipments ratio stood at 122.7%, lower than a╺

month ago (128.1%) mainly among motor vehicles and ICT, suggesting a

certain adjustment in inventory.

20

Shipment Index(3MA) and Inventory-Shipment Ratio

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

109

112

115

118

121

124

127

130

Shipment Index (left, 3MA) Inventory-Shipment Ratio (right)

(%)(Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA)

The cyclical component of the coincident composite index, while still hovering

above the baseline (100), recorded 100.9, slightly down from a month ago

(101.1).

The cyclical component of the leading composite index recorded 103.8, down╺

from a month ago (104.3), due to a weakening in investment-related indicators.

Cyclical Component of Composite Economic Indices

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

Cyclical Component of Coincident Index Cyclical Component of Leading Index

(Base=100)

21

Consumption: Private consumption has improved consistently but consumption

stimulus policy is rapidly losing its momentum starting from 2016.

December’s retail sales index recorded a relatively steady growth of 3.5%, but

the pace of recovery in retail sales is forecast to slowdown due to the

waning policy effects.

By item, durable goods expanded considerably by 13.6%, owing to passenger╺

car sales (34.6%) while semi- and non-durable goods showed slowing recovery

with growth rates of 4.4% and 1.5%, respectively.–

However,╺ with the effects of the consumption stimulus policy gradually dissipating

(from beginning of 2016), retail sales in domestic motor vehicles which led the—

recovery in retail sales dropped by 4.8% in January.—

Services production recorded a 3.0% growth, continuing the recent modest

improvement but sectors closely related to private consumption stayed at a

relatively low level.

W╺ holesale & retail trade rose a mere 2.0% in December despite the increased

sales of passenger cars, while accommodation & food service activities continued

to retreat with a reduced growth of 0.6%.

January’s composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) recorded 100, down by

2p from a month ago, indicating a continuing weakness in the consumption

sentiment.

╺ By component, current and prospective domestic economic conditions dropped

sharply by 7p and 6p, respectively, leading the decline in the CCSI.

Retail Sales Index (3MA) and Composite Consumer Sentiment Index

-2

0

2

4

6

8

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

96

100

104

108

112

116

Retail Sales Index (left, 3MA) Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (right)

(Base=100)(Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA)

22

Facilities Investment: Facilities investment signalled a gradual weakening,

mainly in machinery.

December’s index recorded a 1.0% decrease, continuing last month’s trend

(-4.9%), as machinery investment remained in a slump.

By category, transport equipment rose 27.7%, but machinery which accounts—╺

for the majority of facilities investment dropped 12.1%, continuing on its—

recent downward trend.

* Machinery (YoY,%): (Sep.) -3.6 → (Oct.) 1.0 → (Nov.) -10.4 (Dec.) -12.1→

A few indicators which are closely related to facilities investment displayed— —

overall sluggishness, implying that facilities investment is unlikely to show a

dramatic improvement in the short term.

╺ Domestic machinery shipments remained sluggish with a 7.3% drop while the

machinery import value (advanced estimate for Jan. 1~20) retreated by 9.3% in

January.

Manufacturing capacity utilization stood very low at 73.8%, implying that the╺

facilities investment demand remains stagnant.

Meanwhile, domestic machinery orders received swung to a 35.6% increase╺

from a 14.7% decrease a month ago due to temporary growth factors such as

thermal power plant construction and nuclear reactor orders received.

Equipment Investment Index (3MA) and Domestic Machinery Orders Received

in the Private Sector (3MA)

-10

0

10

20

30

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

Equipment Investment Index (3MA) Domestic Machinery Orders Received in the Private Sector (3MA)


23

Construction Investment: Construction investment exhibited an increase mainly

in building construction but the fast rise in the number of unsold pre-sale

housing units may weigh down on the overall construction industry.

In December, the value of construction completed (constant) recorded a

12.2% increase, up from a month ago (5.9%), as the building construction

sector exhibited increased growth amid the reduced sluggishness in the

civil engineering sector.

By sector, civil engineering reversed the decline from a month earlier (-10.6%)╺

to a 3.0% increase and building construction climbed 19.3%, higher than a

month ago (15.8%).

Construction orders received rose 9.8% on the sustaining growth in civil

engineering, although building construction turned to a decrease.

By sector, building construction decreased 8.6%, mainly in residential housing╺

(-33.2%) but civil engineering exhibited a high growth of 52.0%, continuing

last month’s trend (86.4%).

Meanwhile, the number of unsold pre-sale housing units amounted to

61,512 units, expanding fast by 11,788 units from a month ago.

Apartment transactions dropped by 8.5%, but still remained high (89,344 lots),╺

indicating that it is still too early to consider the drop as a sharp contraction in

the housing market.

Value of Construction Completed (3MA) and Number of Unsold Houses (3MA)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Number of Unsold Houses (left) Value of Construction Completed (right, 3MA)

(Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA)(Thousant Unit)

24

Exports: Exports tumbled sharply in most of key items on falling oil prices

and slowdown in emerging markets including China.

Amid falling oil prices and continued slowdown in major countries, January’s

exports recorded a 18.5% growth, down from a month ago– (-14.1%).

By item, overall sluggishness was observed in most key items; vessel (-32.3%),╺

petroleum products (-26.5%), motor vehicles & parts (-18.7%) and ICT(-17.4%).

╺ By region, China showed a sharp drop (-21.5%) while the U.S. (-9.2%), Japan

(-18.2%) and ASEAN countries (-19.7%) exhibited relatively large losses.

╺ Exports per workday decreased sharply (-15.4%) as in the previous month

(-14.1%), implying that exports remain stagnant even after controlling the effect

of fewer workdays.

Imports showed a lower growth ( 20.1%) than a month ago (-19.2%), as–

oil prices dropped further.

O╺ il prices (Dubai) recorded $26.9 per barrel on a monthly average basis, down by

41.3% from a year ago.

Trade balance posted a surplus of $5.30 billion, slightly up from a year ago

($5.81 billion), as exports remain damp.

Average Exports (3MA) and Imports (3MA) per Day

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

Average Exports per Day (3MA) Average Imports per Day (3MA)

(Year-on-Year % change, 3MA)

25

December’s Balance of Payments

The current account recorded a surplus of $7.46 billion, up from a

year ago ($6.95 billion) as the goods account improved significantly.

╺ The goods account recorded a surplus of $10.77 billion, sharply up from a

year ago ($7.56 billion), while the services account posted a larger deficit

($1.70 billion) than a year ago ($0.64 billion).

The primary income account switched to a deficit ($0.59 billion) from the╺

surplus ($0.89 billion) a year ago as dividend payments (as investment

income) increased.

The 2015 current account recorded a larger surplus of $105.96 billion than╺

a year ago ($84.37 billion).

Seasonally Adjusted Current Account (3MA) and Terms of Trade (3MA)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

S.A. Current Account (left, 3MA) Terms of Trade (right, 3MA)

(Year-on-Year % Change, 3MA)(Hundred Million US Dollars, 3MA)

The financial account recorded an increase of $7.76 billion in net

foreign assets, down from a month ago ($8.70 billion).

╺ The direct investment recorded a higher increase of $1.42 billion than a

month ago ($0.90 billion) on the increase in outbound investment.

╺ The portfolio investment recorded a higher increase of $7.46 billion than a

month ago ($5.13 billion) on the decrease in inbound investment.

Other investment posted a smaller increase ($0.38 billion) than a month╺

ago ($1.66 billion) due to declining loans and increasing trade credit loans.

* The items in financial account here are expressed as of changes in

assets and liabilities.

26

Labor Market: Employment growth was maintained mainly in manufacturing

and regular workers while agriculture, forestry & fisheries exhibited a much

lower fall than a month ago.

December’s employment rose 495,000 (2.0%), higher than a month ago

(285,000, 1.1%).

By occupational status, regular workers maintained a steady increase (548,000,╺

4.4%) while the decrease in non-wage workers who account for the majority—

of the employed in agriculture, forestry & fisheries sharply reduced (-114,000,—

1.7%) from a month ago (-218,000).

Seasonally-adjusted rates of employment (aged 15~29) and labor force

participation recorded 66.3% and 63.0%, respectively, each up by 0.4%p

and up by 0.5%p from a month ago.

╺ The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stayed low at 3.4%, unchanged from

a month ago.

The nominal regular wage (in a workplace of more than 5 full-time

employees) rose 3.8% in November, sustaining a modest increase.

(Jul. ’15) 3.6% (Aug.) 3.2% (Sep.) 3.1% (Oct.) 3.5% (Nov.) 3.8%→ → → →╺

Changes in the Number of Employed Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Labor ForceParticipation Rate and Employment Rate for Persons Aged 15~64

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

60.5

61.5

62.5

63.5

64.5

65.5

66.5

Changes in Employed Persons (left)S.A. Labor Force Participation Rate (right)

S.A. Employment Rate for Persons Aged 15~64 (right)

(Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons) (%)

27

CPI: January’s headline CPI inflation retreated 0.8%, lower than the 1.3% a

month ago, as industrial goods prices turned downward.

Goods prices rose at 1.1%, lower than a month ago– (0.0%), as the effect

of the cigarette price hike waned.

╺ Prices of agricultural, livestock, and fishery products showed a slightly lower

increase of 2.4% than a month ago (2.9%).

Industrial goods prices swung to a decrease (╺ 0.8%) from last month’s increase–

(0.4%) as the fall in petroleum product prices eased (-15.6% -10.3%).→

However, the prices of other industrial goods prices rose significantly less

(13.3% 0.4%) due to the dissipating cigarette price hike effects.→

* Liquor & cigarette price (YoY, %): (Nov. ’15) 50.0 (Dec.) 50.3 (Jan. ’16) 0.6→ →

Utility fees (water, electricity and gas) rose 8.1%, lower than a month ago╺

(-7.1%), due to the cut in urban gas prices.

Services prices rose 2.4%, slightly up from a month ago (2.3%), mainly on

the price inflation of personal services.

Core inflation, excluding agricultural and petroleum products, stood at 1.7%,

down from a month ago (2.4%), as the effects of the cigarette price hike waned.

Prices of apartment purchases and joense rose 0.1% and 0.2% MoM,

down from a month ago (0.2% and 0.3%, respectively).

CPI Change and Contribution by Sector

-1

0

1

2

3

4

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

Agricultural Manufacturing

Service Electricity, water, and gas

CPI Core CPI

(Year-on-Year, %, %p)

Note: The sum of sector-b-sector contributions are rounded off to the nearest integer, whichmay be inconsistent with the growth rate of the total index.

28

Financial Market: The domestic financial market became more volatile

including drops in Korea’s currency value and stock market, mainly due to

mounting external uncertainties.

As of end-January, the dollar/won exchange rate advanced on external

uncertainties including China’s stock market plunges, to record 1,208.4

won, up by 36.4 won from a month ago (1,172.0 won).

The yen/won exchange rate recorded╺ 1,017.1 won per 100 yen, up by 45.1

won from a month ago (972.0 won).

The KOSPI closed at 1,912.1, down by 49.2p from a month ago (1,961.3),

influenced by a weakening investment sentiment and foreigners’ net selling

of domestic stocks.

Government bonds yields (3-year maturity) recorded 1.56%, down by 10bp

from a month earlier (1.66%), influenced by foreigners’ net buying of

government bond futures and the U.S.’ and Japan’s expansion of the

accommodative monetary policy.

Bank loans to households, mostly housing mortgage loans, rose by 6.9

trillion won during December, despite the rise in the loan interest rate.

╺ Banks’ loans to household (change, trillion won): (Aug. ’15) 7.7 → (Sep.)

6.2 (Oct.→ ) 9.0 (Nov.) 7.5 (Dec.) 6.9→ →

Exchange Rate and Stock Price Index

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2015 2016

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

KRW/USD (left) KRW/100JPY (left) KOSPI (right)

(won)

29

World Economy: Amid the slowing growth in the global economy, downside

risks remain, including economic slowdowns and financial market instability

in emerging markets.

With the Eurozone exhibiting a moderate recovery and Japan remaining

stagnant, the U.S. grew at a significantly low rate during 4Q of 2015.

GDP Growth Rates Retail Salesin the US, Eurozone, and Japan in the US, Eurozone, and Japan

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9


2013 2014 2015

US Eurozone Japan

(QoQ annualized rate, %)

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

US Eurozone Japan

(Year-on-Year % Change)

Emerging markets showed lower-than-expected performance in major leading

indicators, signalling a deeper contraction in the real economy.

Exports Manufacturing Indicesin China, Brazil, and Russia in China, India, and Brazil

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

China Brazil Russia


42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

China India Brazil

(Base=50)

30

The U.S. exhibited slowing growth in 4Q of 2015 (0.7% annualized QoQ),

but is expected to show a gradual recovery, led by private consumption.

Meanwhile, industrial production performed poorly as exports slid continuously,╺

suggesting the pace of recovery will be somewhat limited.

US Industrial Production US Employmentand Personal Consumption Expenditures and Consumer Sentiment

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

Industrial Production (left) Personal Consumption (right)


0

10

20

30

40

50

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

75

80

85

90

95

100

Employed Persons (left) Consumer Sentiment (right)

(3MA)(MoM Change, 10 Thousand Persons)

The Eurozone posted lower growth in production and consumption but the

exports rebounded, indicating a sustaining, slow recovery.

Although the region’s accommodative policy remains intact, the Eurozone is not╺

expected to recover fast due to increasing external uncertainties.

Industrial Production and Exports PMI and Sentiment Indicatorin Eurozone in Eurozone

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9

2013 2014 2015

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Industrial Production (left) Exports (right)


49

50

51

52

53

54

55

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

PMI (left) Sentiment Indicator (right)

(Base=100)(Base=50)

31

Japan showed lower-than-expected performance in production and consumption

as well as rapid declines in exports, indicating an overall contraction.

December’s consumption recorded a low growth of 1.1%, continuing last–╺

month’s trend, due to reduced sales of fuel and motor vehicles. Exports also fell

by 8.0% amid the sharp drop in exports to emerging markets.

Japan's Industrial Production Japan's Exports and Importsand Leading Indicator

-5

0

5

10

15

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

95

100

105

110

115

Industrial Production (left) Leading Indicator (right)

(Year-on-Year % Change) (2010=100)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

Exports Imports


China exhibited slowing growth in exports and domestic demand (except

consumption), suggesting an overall slowdown in economic activities.

4Q growth fell lower (6.8%) than a quarter ago (6.9%) as both exports and╺

investment stayed subdued despite the increased growth in retail sales.

China's Industrial Production China's Fixed Asset Investmentand Retail Sales and Leading Indicator

4

6

8

10

12

14

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

Industrial Production Retail Sales


8

10

12

14

16

18

20

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

97

98

99

100

101

102

Fixed Asset Investment (left) Leading Indicator (right)

(Base=100)(Year-on-Year % Change)

32

In January, oil prices (Dubai) dropped to the $20 level as oversupply

concerns arose from the lifting of Iran sanctions and the weak demand.

Meanwhile, oil forecasters expect 2016 prices will be at the $40 range (per╺

barrel, Brent) on an annual average basis, falling by 20% or more from 2015.

Oil Prices CRB and Reuters Indices of Commodity Prices

20

40

60

80

100

120

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

Dubai WTI

($/Barrel)

160

200

240

280

320

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

CRB (left) Reuters (right)

Note: Reuters as of Jan. 25th

Outlook for the global economy was revised downward with downside

risks, including G2, running relatively high.

IMF revised down its global growth outlook to 3.4%, reflecting the slowdown in╺

emerging economies, and predicted that global growth will be pressured by

downward risks such as China’s economic instability and U.S. rate hike.

2016 World Economic Outlook (IMF)

(%)

Release Date World US Eurozone Japan China Brazil Russia

Oct. 2015 3.6 2.8 1.6 1.0 6.3 -1.0 -0.6

Jan. 2016 3.4 2.6 1.7 1.0 6.3 -3.5 -1.0

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 2016.

33

Global Financial Markets: Global financial markets are experiencing high volatility

due to China’s stock market instability and currency devaluation.

Investors’ appetite for safe assets grew stronger, resulting in a decline in

the long-term interest rate and sharp increases in VIX, EMBI and the CDS

premium of certain emerging markets with weak economic fundamentals.

Long-Term Interest Rates VIX and Emerging Market Bond Indexin the US, Germany, and Japan

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2015 2016

US Germany Japan

(%)

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1

2015 2016

350

380

410

440

470

500

530

VIX (left) EMBI (right)

FX rates of most of emerging markets increased on mounting uncertainties

related to emerging markets, while stock prices in major countries slid.

Major Currency Revaluation Rates against USD and Changes in Stock Prices

(End-December vs. End-January)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

US Euro Japan China Russia India Indonesia Korea

Stock Price Change Currency Revaluation Rate

(%)

34

KDI Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)

(1st Quarter of 2016)

Domestic forecasters expect the Korean economy will show a

limited growth of 2.7% in 2016 on weakening exports due to the

economic slowdown in key emerging markets including China.

Exports are projected to decrease by around 1% on slowing global

growth while the current account is expected to continue to run a

large surplus in 2016.

Headline CPI is expected to rise very gradually from the low 1%

range early this year, and record a relatively low rate of 1.3% on

an annual basis.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain in the mid-3% range,

similar to last year, while employment growth is likely to contract

slightly due to a growing slack in domestic demand.

Some experts called for expansionary macroeconomic policy as a way

of responding to economic slowdowns while others demanding

corporate restructuring and household debt stabilization measures.

Meanwhile, most expected a continuing of the current base rate by

the second half of 2016.

KDI Survey of Professional Forecasters 2015~2016

(%, $100 million, 10 thousand persons)

Time of Survey1) GDP Exports4)CurrentAccount

Unemployment Rate

Number ofEmployed5) Headline CPI

2Q of 2015 3.3 3.6 820 3.5 43 1.8

3Q of 2015 3.1 3.8 913 3.6 35 1.6

4Q of 20152) 2.8 1.6 920 3.6 32 1.4

1Q of 20163) 2.7 -0.8 966 3.6 31 1.3

Note: 1) Conducted surveys of 22 domestic professional forecasters in Apr., Jul, and Oct. of 2015 and

late Jan. of 2016.

2) Annualized figures calculated using the average of biannual forecasts by survey respondents.

3) Annualized figures calculated using the average of quarterly forecasts by survey respondents.

4) Customs-cleared basis.

5) Year-on-year change.

경제동향�주요지표Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

경제동향�주요지표Major Indicators of the Korean Economy

36

국내총생산�및�국내총소득 년�불변가격(2010 ) 민간소비�및�고정투자 년�불변가격(2010 )GDP and GDI Private Consumption and Fixed Investment

(at 2010 Constant Prices) (at 2010 Constant Prices)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


2013 2014 2015

�국내총생산(GDP) �국내총소득(GDI)

(전년동기대비,�%�/�Year-on-Year % Change)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


2013 2014 2015

�민간소비(Private Consumption)

�설비투자(Facilities Investment)

�건설투자(Construction Investment)


상품�및�서비스수출 년�불변가격(2010 ) 상품�및�서비스수입 년�불변가격(2010 )Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services

(at 2010 Constant Prices) (at 2010 Constant Prices)

-5

0

5

10

15


2013 2014 2015

�상품수출(Exports of Goods)

�서비스수출(Exports of Services)


-5

0

5

10

15


2013 2014 2015

�상품수입(Imports of Goods)

�서비스수입(Imports of Services)


37

국내총생산 년�불변가격1. (2010 )Gross Domestic Product (at 2010 Constant Prices)

조원( , Trillion Won)

국내총생산국내총소득

Gross DomesticIncome

GDP

민간소비

PrivateConsumption

설비투자

FacilitiesInvestment

건설투자

ConstructionInvestment

총수출

Total Export

총수입

Total Import

2009 1188.1 610.0 99.7 208.2 554.9 498.9 1186.7

2010 1265.3 636.7 121.6 200.6 625.3 585.0 1265.3

2011 1311.9 655.2 127.3 193.8 719.9 668.9 1279.7

2012 1342.0 667.8 127.4 186.1 756.6 685.0 1308.9

2013 1380.8 680.3 126.4 196.3 788.8 696.7 1361.7

2014p 1426.5 692.6 133.8 198.4 810.7 711.4 1412.6

2015p 1463.5 707.4 140.7 206.3 814.0 733.0 1503.4

2012 Ⅳ 352.3 170.2 30.0 52.1 201.7 172.3 345.3

2013 Ⅰ 324.5 170.5 29.5 37.7 185.1 171.9 319.4

Ⅱ 345.6 165.0 32.2 53.8 199.7 172.4 340.0

Ⅲ 346.1 170.9 31.2 50.8 196.1 171.4 342.3

Ⅳ 364.6 173.9 33.5 54.0 207.9 181.0 360.1

2014 Ⅰp 337.3 175.0 31.7 39.3 192.9 177.5 334.8

Ⅱp 357.4 167.8 34.7 54.0 206.5 177.4 352.4

Ⅲp 357.6 173.5 32.5 51.9 200.5 175.3 352.5

Ⅳp 374.3 176.4 34.9 53.2 210.9 181.3 372.9

2015 Ⅰp 345.6 177.7 33.5 39.6 193.1 180.9 355.5

Ⅱp 365.2 170.6 36.4 54.8 204.8 179.9 375.1

Ⅲp 367.2 177.2 34.6 54.9 201.0 181.0 377.0

Ⅳp 385.5 182.0 36.1 57.1 215.0 191.2 395.8

전년동기대비�증가율(%)

Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year

2009 0.7 0.2 -7.7 3.5 -0.3 -6.8 2.7

2010 6.5 4.4 22.0 -3.7 12.7 17.3 6.6

2011 3.7 2.9 4.7 -3.4 15.1 14.3 1.1

2012 2.3 1.9 0.1 -3.9 5.1 2.4 2.3

2013 2.9 1.9 -0.8 5.5 4.3 1.7 4.0

2014p 3.3 1.8 5.8 1.0 2.8 2.1 3.7

2015p 2.6 2.1 5.2 4.0 0.4 3.0 6.4

2012 Ⅳ 2.2 ( 0.6) 2.7 ( 0.3) -3.8 (-4.2) -6.4 (-1.7) 5.8 ( 0.8) 1.7 (-1.3) 2.7 ( 0.5)

2013 Ⅰ 2.1 ( 0.6) 1.6 (-0.1) -12.3 ( 2.7) 1.3 ( 5.3) 5.6 ( 0.2) -0.3 ( 0.7) 2.9 ( 0.6)

Ⅱ 2.7 ( 1.0) 1.9 ( 0.5) -3.2 ( 0.9) 8.9 ( 4.6) 6.0 ( 2.3) 1.2 ( 1.5) 4.7 ( 1.8)

Ⅲ 3.2 ( 0.9) 1.9 ( 1.1) 2.3 ( 3.5) 7.4 (-0.8) 2.5 (-0.7) 0.9 ( 0.0) 4.2 ( 1.1)

Ⅳ 3.5 ( 0.9) 2.2 ( 0.6) 11.6 ( 4.2) 3.5 (-4.8) 3.1 ( 1.3) 5.0 ( 2.9) 4.3 ( 0.7)

2014 Ⅰp 3.9 ( 1.1) 2.6 ( 0.4) 7.2 (-1.4) 4.1 ( 5.3) 4.2 ( 1.4) 3.2 (-1.1) 4.8 ( 1.2)

Ⅱp 3.4 ( 0.5) 1.7 (-0.4) 7.7 ( 1.3) 0.2 ( 0.5) 3.4 ( 1.3) 2.9 ( 1.2) 3.7 ( 0.7)

Ⅲp 3.3 ( 0.8) 1.5 ( 0.8) 4.2 ( 0.2) 2.3 ( 0.9) 2.2 (-1.7) 2.3 (-0.7) 3.0 ( 0.3)

Ⅳp 2.7 ( 0.3) 1.4 ( 0.5) 4.2 ( 4.0) -1.5 (-7.8) 1.4 ( 0.4) 0.1 ( 0.7) 3.6 ( 1.4)

2015 Ⅰp 2.5 ( 0.8) 1.5 ( 0.6) 5.8 ( 0.2) 0.6 ( 7.4) 0.1 ( 0.1) 1.9 ( 0.6) 6.2 ( 3.6)

Ⅱp 2.2 ( 0.3) 1.7 (-0.2) 5.0 ( 0.5) 1.6 ( 1.6) -0.8 ( 0.3) 1.4 ( 0.9) 6.4 ( 1.0)

Ⅲp 2.7 ( 1.3) 2.1 ( 1.2) 6.6 ( 1.8) 5.7 ( 5.0) 0.3 (-0.6) 3.2 ( 1.1) 7.0 ( 0.9)

Ⅳp 3.0 ( 0.6) 3.2 ( 1.5) 3.5 ( 0.9) 7.3 (-6.1) 1.9 ( 2.1) 5.5 ( 2.8) 6.1 ( 0.7)

주: 는�잠정치1) p .는�계절조정�전기대비�증가율2) ( ) .

자료: 한국은행.

Note: 1) p is preliminary.2) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the

previous period (S.A.).Source: Bank of Korea.

38

생산지수 출하지수�및� 재고지수Production Indices Shipment and Inventory Indices

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�전산업�생산지수(All Industry Production Index)

�광공업�생산지수(Industrial Production Index)

�서비스업�생산지수(Service Production Index)


-8

-4

0

4

8

12

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�출하지수(Shipment Index)

�재고지수(Inventory Index)

(전년동기대비, % / Year-on-Year % Change)

경기종합지수�순환변동치 한국은행� 제조업�실적�및�전망BSI (S.A.)Cyclical Component of Economic Indices BOK Business Survey Index (Seasonally Adjusted)

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�동행지수�순환변동치(Composite Coincident Index)

�선행지수�순환변동치(Composite Leading Index)

(기준=100�/�Base=100)

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

BSI 제조업�실적(BSI Manufacturing Tendency)

BSI 제조업�전망(BSI Manufacturing Future Tendency)

(기준=100 / Base=100)

39

경기2 .Economic Activity

전년동기대비( , % / Year-on-Year % Change)

생산지수Production Indices

생산자제품Producer's Product

경기종합지수순환변동치1)

Cyclical Component ofEconomic Indices

한국은행�BSI1)

제조업 계절조정( , )BOK BSI

(Manufacturing, S.A.)

제조업

평균가동률CapacityUtilizationRate (%)

전산업2)

AllIndustry

Production

광공업3)

IndustrialProduction

서비스업Service

Production

출하Shipment

재고Inventory

동행지수CompositeCoincident

Index

선행지수CompositeLeadingIndex

실적Tendency

전망Future

Tendency

2013 1.7 0.7 1.5 0.7 4.4 - - 75.7 77.7 76.5

2014 1.3 0.0 2.2 0.0 -1.8 - - 76.1 79.3 76.1

2015p 1.5 -0.6 2.9 -0.3 4.2 - - 71.2 73.9 74.2

2014 Ⅱ 0.9 ( 0.0) 0.5 (-0.6) 1.5 ( 0.1) 0.0 (-0.3) 8.1 ( 0.7) - - 75.0 78.0 76.1

Ⅲ 1.7 ( 0.5) 1.2 ( 0.1) 2.6 ( 0.9) 0.5 (-0.4) 4.2 ( 0.8) - - 75.7 78.0 76.0

Ⅳ 0.6 ( 0.1) -1.9 (-0.9) 2.6 ( 1.0) -1.1 ( 0.0) -1.8 (-2.1) - - 75.3 77.3 75.1

2015 Ⅰ 1.0 ( 0.2) -0.9 (-0.1) 2.8 ( 0.5) -0.7 (-0.6) 2.8 ( 3.5) - - 74.3 77.7 74.4

Ⅱ 0.7 (-0.3) -1.5 (-0.9) 2.5 (-0.1) -1.3 (-0.7) 5.5 ( 3.3) - - 69.3 75.3 74.2

Ⅲ 2.0 ( 1.9) -0.2 ( 1.6) 2.9 ( 1.4) 0.8 ( 2.0) 7.6 ( 2.9) - - 70.7 71.0 74.7

Ⅳp 2.4 ( 0.6) 0.0 (-0.6) 3.1 ( 1.3) 0.3 (-0.3) 4.2 (-5.8) - - 70.3 71.3 73.5

2014 6 1.7 ( 1.6) 0.6 ( 2.3) 2.4 ( 1.0) -0.7 ( 1.7) 8.1 ( 0.6) 100.1 99.7 74.0 78.0 76.3

7 2.8 ( 0.4) 4.0 ( 1.6) 2.9 (-0.3) 2.4 ( 0.5) 7.4 ( 1.7) 100.2 99.8 75.0 79.0 77.9

8 0.6 (-0.6) -2.6 (-3.3) 2.1 ( 0.6) -2.8 (-2.0) 5.7 (-1.1) 100.4 100.4 75.0 78.0 74.7

9 1.8 (-0.7) 2.0 ( 0.1) 2.8 (-0.2) 1.9 (-0.2) 4.2 ( 0.3) 100.2 101.0 77.0 77.0 75.4

10 0.2 ( 0.4) -3.1 (-1.1) 2.6 ( 0.7) -3.4 (-1.4) 3.5 (-0.4) 99.9 101.2 74.0 77.0 74.2

11 -0.5 (-0.1) -3.5 ( 0.3) 2.2 ( 0.2) -1.9 ( 2.4) 0.5 (-1.4) 99.8 101.1 76.0 77.0 74.6

12 2.1 ( 1.3) 1.1 ( 3.4) 3.2 ( 0.2) 2.1 ( 2.1) -1.8 (-0.3) 100.1 101.5 76.0 78.0 76.6

2015 1 0.6 (-1.9) 1.8 (-3.7) 2.3 (-0.5) 2.8 (-3.2) 0.2 (-0.1) 100.1 102.5 75.0 79.0 74.1

2 0.6 ( 2.2) -5.0 ( 2.3) 2.8 ( 1.4) -4.8 ( 0.5) 2.9 ( 2.7) 100.5 103.1 74.0 75.0 75.1

3 2.0 (-0.5) 0.1 (-0.2) 3.3 (-0.2) -0.1 ( 0.3) 2.8 ( 0.8) 100.3 103.8 74.0 80.0 73.9

4 0.7 (-0.5) -2.6 (-1.3) 4.0 ( 0.5) -1.8 (-0.5) 3.0 ( 2.1) 100.3 103.7 74.0 76.0 74.1

5 0.1 (-0.6) -3.0 (-1.6) 2.4 (-0.4) -3.0 (-1.4) 3.5 (-1.4) 99.8 104.0 69.0 76.0 73.2

6 1.4 ( 0.6) 1.4 ( 2.4) 0.9 (-1.4) 1.0 ( 1.1) 5.5 ( 2.6) 99.5 103.6 64.0 74.0 75.2

7 0.3 ( 0.6) -3.3 (-0.3) 2.4 ( 1.8) -1.5 ( 0.8) 4.2 ( 0.4) 99.7 103.5 71.0 68.0 74.7

8 1.2 ( 0.3) 0.0 ( 0.1) 2.3 ( 0.5) 0.0 (-0.5) 6.2 ( 0.8) 100.1 103.6 71.0 72.0 74.1

9 4.5 ( 2.5) 2.8 ( 2.3) 3.8 ( 1.1) 3.9 ( 3.3) 7.6 ( 1.7) 100.8 104.2 70.0 73.0 75.2

10p 2.5 (-1.3) 1.9 (-1.1) 3.2 ( 0.3) 3.2 (-1.3) 5.9 (-1.9) 101.1 104.4 73.0 71.0 74.0

11p 2.2 (-0.4) -0.1 (-2.1) 3.2 ( 0.3) -0.8 (-2.0) 6.6 (-1.0) 101.0 104.3 69.0 72.0 72.8

12p 2.3 ( 1.2) -1.9 ( 1.3) 3.0 ( 0.0) -1.6 ( 1.3) 4.2 (-3.0) 100.9 103.8 69.0 71.0 73.8

2016 1 - - - - - - - 67.0 70.0 -

2 - - - - - - - - 67.0 -

주: 기준치1) =100.년�이후�전산업생산은�농림어업�제외2) 2014 .

광업 제조업 전기 가스업을�포함3) , , · .는�잠정치 한국은행� 제외4) p ( BSI ).는�계절조정�전기대비�증가율5) ( ) .

자료: 통계청 한국은행; .

Note: 1) Base=100.2) All industry production data since 2014 do not include agriculture

an fisheris sectors.3) Mining & Manufacturing, Electricity & Gas Industry.4) p is preliminary (BOK BSI are excluded).5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the

previous period (S.A.).Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea.

40

민간소비 소비재 와�소매판매액지수( ) 유형별�소매판매액지수Private Consumption(Consumer Goods) and Retail Retail Sales Index by Group of Goods

Sales Index

-3

0

3

6

9

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�민간소비(소비재)(Private Consumption(Consumer Goods))�소매판매액지수(Retail Sales Index)

��(전년동기대비,�%�/�Year-on-Year % Change)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�내구재(Durable)�준내구재(Quasi-durable)�비내구재(Nondurable)


소비재출하지수�및� 소비재�수입액 소비자동향조사Consumer Goods Shipment Index and Consumer Consumer Survey

Goods Import

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�소비재출하(Consumer Goods Shipment Index)

�소비재수입(Consumer Goods Import)

��(전년동기대비,�%�/�Year-on-Year % Change)

97

100

103

106

109

112

115

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�소비자심리지수(Composite Consumer Sentiment Index)

�소비지출전망(Prospective Household Spending)

(기준치=100�/�Base=100)

41

소비3.Consumption


소매판매액소비재출하

ConsumerGoods

ShipmentIndex

소비재수입1)

ConsumerGoodsImport

소비자동향조사2)

Consumer Survey

소비자심리지수CompositeConsumerSentiment

Index(CCSI)

현�재�경기판단CurrentDomesticEconomicConditions

향�후경기전망ProspectiveDomesticEconomicConditions

소비지출전망

ProspectiveHouseholdSpending

Retail SalesIndex

유형별�지수 by Group of Goods

비내구재Nondurable

준내구재Quasi-durable

내구재승용차

Automobile

Durable

2013 0.7 0.4 2.1 0.3 2.1 -0.3 6.5 103.4 78.3 94.1 107.2

2014 1.7 0.8 -0.6 5.1 16.6 -0.4 10.6 105.9 80.5 95.4 109.3

2015p 3.4 1.8 -1.1 10.1 20.3 2.4 9.6 102.4 73.3 87.6 106.9

2012 Ⅳ 2.7 ( 0.0) 0.8 0.5 8.4 15.5 2.1 0.0 98.7 68.0 82.0 107.7

2013 Ⅰ 0.3 (-1.0) -1.6 2.7 1.5 4.1 2.2 3.1 101.7 69.7 91.0 107.3

Ⅱ 1.1 ( 0.8) -0.1 1.6 2.8 2.1 -1.2 7.8 102.7 78.3 94.0 105.7

Ⅲ 0.5 ( 0.8) 0.5 2.9 -1.4 6.3 -1.1 5.2 103.0 80.0 95.0 106.3

Ⅳ 1.1 ( 0.4) 2.4 1.0 -1.5 -3.4 -1.2 9.8 106.3 85.0 96.3 109.3

2014 Ⅰ 2.4 ( 0.2) 2.6 -1.8 5.6 14.1 -2.2 6.1 108.3 85.7 100.0 111.0

Ⅱ 0.8 (-0.2) 1.4 -2.4 2.5 15.6 1.6 12.0 106.3 82.0 97.7 109.3

Ⅲ 1.5 ( 1.3) -0.5 0.8 5.7 15.2 0.0 12.9 106.0 79.7 96.3 109.3

Ⅳ 1.9 ( 0.4) -0.1 0.5 6.8 21.3 -0.8 11.2 103.0 74.7 87.7 107.7

2015 Ⅰ 1.6 ( 0.5) -0.4 -1.6 8.0 17.4 1.1 18.4 102.0 72.3 88.3 107.3

Ⅱ 2.9 ( 0.6) 1.4 -0.9 8.8 18.1 0.7 6.7 102.3 73.7 87.0 106.0

Ⅲ 3.2 ( 1.1) 3.4 -3.4 7.5 16.7 2.0 7.1 101.3 69.0 87.0 106.0

Ⅳp 5.7 ( 3.6) 2.3 1.0 15.8 28.3 5.5 7.2 104.0 78.3 88.0 108.3

2015 1 -2.8 (-2.8) -9.1 -2.8 10.4 21.4 2.3 25.3 102.0 74.0 90.0 107.0

2 5.3 ( 2.6) 10.3 0.7 0.3 7.2 -2.2 21.2 103.0 71.0 87.0 109.0

3 2.8 (-0.4) -0.5 -2.3 13.5 22.9 2.9 10.0 101.0 72.0 88.0 106.0

4 4.9 ( 1.4) 2.0 1.7 13.2 13.0 3.7 6.3 104.0 77.0 91.0 106.0

5 3.1 (-0.3) 1.2 3.2 6.8 15.7 -1.0 6.8 105.0 79.0 91.0 107.0

6 0.7 (-3.4) 1.2 -8.3 6.8 25.5 -0.7 7.0 98.0 65.0 79.0 105.0

7 2.1 ( 2.0) 1.5 -3.4 6.7 13.5 -1.5 5.1 100.0 63.0 86.0 105.0

8 2.0 ( 2.1) 0.6 -4.7 9.0 16.0 1.9 12.0 101.0 71.0 87.0 106.0

9 5.5 ( 0.6) 8.3 -2.8 6.8 21.0 5.8 4.7 103.0 73.0 88.0 107.0

10 8.3 ( 3.2) 3.2 5.3 20.1 24.0 5.5 9.5 105.0 81.0 91.0 108.0

11p 5.6 (-1.0) 2.2 2.5 14.0 25.2 5.8 10.8 105.0 79.0 89.0 110.0

12p 3.5 (-0.1) 1.5 -4.4 13.6 34.6 5.0 1.8 102.0 75.0 84.0 107.0

2016 1p - - - - - - - 100.0 68.0 78.0 107.0

주: 소비재수입액을�전월의�소비재�수입물가지수로�실질화1) .기준치2) =100.는�잠정치 단 소비자동향조사는�제외3) p ( , ).는�계절조정�전기대비�증가율4) ( ) .

자료: 한국은행 통계청 한국무역협회; ; .

Note: 1) Nominal consumer goods import deflated by import price index(consumer goods) of the previous month.

2) Base=100.3) p is preliminary (Consumer survey is excluded).4) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the

previous period (S.A.).Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea;

Korea International Trade Association.

42

형태별�설비투자지수 설비투자지수와�기계류내수출하지수Equipment Investment Index by Type Equipment Investment Index and

Domestic Machinery Shipment Index

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�기계류(Machinery)

�운송장비(Transport Equipment)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�설비투자지수(Equipment Investment Index)

�기계류내수출하지수(Domestic Machinery Shipment Index)


내수용자본재수입액과�기계류수입액 국내기계수주Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand Domestic Machinery Orders Receivedand Machinery Import

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�내수용자본재수입액(Import of Capital Good for Domestic Demand)�기계류수입액(Machinery Import)


-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�총수주액(Total) �민간수주액(Private)


43

설비투자4.Equipment Investment

십억원( , Billion Won, 2010=100)

설비투자지수 기계류내수출하지수1)

DomesticMachineryShipmentIndex

기계류수입액2)

MachineryImport

국내기계수주3)

EquipmentInvestment

Index

기계류Machinery

운송장비TransportEquipment

DomesticMachinery

Orders Received공공Public

민간Private

2014 105.0 103.9 108.0 92.6 67,193 26,485 5,012 21,4732015p 111.5 106.7 124.4 91.4 67,400 25,670 1,920 23,749

2014 Ⅳ 112.8 112.7 113.2 97.7 17,903 6,075 778 5,2972015 Ⅰ 106.9 109.2 100.8 89.5 16,545 6,453 405 6,048

Ⅱ 113.5 110.0 122.8 95.7 17,273 7,054 493 6,561Ⅲ 110.9 103.4 130.9 88.9 16,832 5,643 399 5,244Ⅳp 114.7 104.1 143.0 91.3 16,750 6,520 623 5,897

2014 12 126.0 125.3 128.0 105.9 6,500 1,840 139 1,701

2015 1 102.7 105.0 96.7 84.9 5,160 2,324 116 2,2082 98.6 99.7 95.6 79.8 5,227 1,856 141 1,7153 119.5 123.0 110.2 103.9 6,158 2,273 148 2,1264 113.5 115.3 108.7 94.4 5,723 2,782 127 2,6565 109.1 100.9 131.0 90.3 5,530 2,102 197 1,9056 117.8 113.7 128.7 102.5 6,021 2,170 169 2,0007 119.4 113.2 135.8 93.2 6,211 2,023 133 1,8908 105.8 100.8 119.1 87.0 5,253 1,702 160 1,5429 107.5 96.2 137.7 86.4 5,367 1,917 106 1,81110 112.3 101.6 140.9 88.0 5,688 2,059 98 1,96111p 107.0 100.4 124.7 87.7 5,150 1,964 227 1,73712p 124.7 110.2 163.5 98.2 5,912 2,496 298 2,198

전년동기대비�증가율(%)Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year

2014 5.2 3.9 8.8 0.2 5.8 14.8 94.2 4.82015p 6.2 2.7 15.2 -1.3 0.3 -3.1 -61.7 10.6

2014 Ⅳ 5.4 ( 8.6) 5.4 5.5 -1.0 7.0 -6.3 (-26.0) -27.6 -2.02015 Ⅰ 8.4 ( -1.6) 11.0 2.1 3.2 8.5 -2.6 ( 6.2) -66.8 11.9

Ⅱ 5.2 ( -1.5) 3.8 8.7 -0.7 -1.8 15.7 ( 1.4) 61.6 13.2Ⅲ 10.0 ( 4.7) 5.2 22.1 -0.8 2.3 -26.6 (-13.1) -85.3 5.3Ⅳp 1.7 ( 0.1) -7.6 26.3 -6.6 -6.4 7.3 ( 14.1) -19.9 11.3

2014 12 15.2 ( 2.1) 13.2 20.9 -1.5 18.5 3.2 (-24.2) 12.5 2.5

2015 1 13.7 ( -7.7) 17.3 4.9 7.5 14.0 32.9 ( 31.9) 32.0 33.02 3.1 ( 3.4) 4.3 0.2 -3.5 3.1 0.5 (-17.8) 17.6 -0.73 8.8 ( -2.0) 11.6 1.5 5.7 8.8 -24.9 ( 16.7) -85.4 5.54 2.6 ( -1.7) 5.9 -5.4 0.3 -5.8 22.2 ( 18.9) 30.7 21.95 0.7 ( -1.4) -5.2 15.5 -5.4 -8.4 15.1 (-24.4) 69.4 11.46 12.3 ( 4.3) 10.7 16.2 3.0 10.0 8.6 ( -4.0) 84.7 5.07 7.2 ( 1.4) 8.2 4.9 -1.2 -2.3 13.7 ( -2.9) 50.2 11.88 16.6 ( -0.9) 11.3 30.9 2.4 11.1 -58.4 ( 0.2) -93.7 -0.49 7.3 ( 4.3) -3.6 36.1 -3.6 0.0 5.5 ( 7.6) 34.8 4.110 12.5 ( -0.7) 1.0 44.2 -3.3 9.0 6.6 ( 7.0) -53.6 13.911p -4.9 ( -5.4) -10.4 9.6 -8.8 -16.7 -14.7 ( -7.2) -46.9 -7.312p -1.0 ( 6.1) -12.1 27.7 -7.3 -9.1 35.6 ( 20.6) 113.7 29.2

주: 선박�제외1) .백만달러2) .선박�제외 년�불변가격3) , 2010 .는�잠정치 단 기계류수입액은�제외4) p ( , ).는�계절조정�전기대비�증가율5) ( ) .

자료: 한국은행 통계청 무역협회; ; .

Note: 1) Vessels are excluded.2) Million US Dollars.3) Vessels are excluded, at 2010 Constant Prices.4) p is preliminary (Machinery Import is excluded).5) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the

previous period (S.A.).Source: Bank of Korea; Statistics Korea; International Trade Association.

44

건설기성액 불변가격 및�국내건설수주( ) 공사종류별�건설기성액 불변가격( )Construction Completed (at 2010 Constant Prices) Value of Construction Completed by Type

and Construction Orders Received (at 2010 Constant Prices)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

�건설기성액(좌)�/�Value of Cons. Completed (left)

�국내건설수주(우)�/�Cons. Orders Received (right)


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�건축(Building)

�토목(Civil Engineering)


건축허가면적�및� 건축착공면적 주택건설�및� 미분양�주택�수Building Construction Permits and Housing Construction and Number of Unsold

Building Construction Initiated Houses

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�건축허가면적(Building Construction Permits)

�건축착공면적(Building Construction Initiated)


-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

�주택건설(좌)�/�Housing Construction (left)

�미분양(우)�/�Num. of Unsold Houses (right)

(전월비,�호�/�M-on-M Unit)(전년동기비,�%�/�Y-on-Y %)

45

건설투자5.Construction Investment

십억원 천 호( , , , Billion Won, Thousand , Unit)㎡㎡

건설기성액1)

Value of Construction Completed국내건설수주Construction

OrdersReceived

건축허가면적Building

ConstructionPermits

건축착공면적Building

ConstructionInitiated

주택건설Housing

Construction

미분양주택수3)

Number ofUnsoldHouses

합계Total

공사종류별� By Type

건축Building

토목Civil

Engineering

2014 89,646 55,926 33,720 89,833 141,347 111,937 515,251 40,379

2015p 91,506 59,123 32,383 133,252 189,840 152,618 765,328 61,512

2014 Ⅳ 24,571 14,770 9,800 26,390 36,883 32,190 163,923 40,379

2015 Ⅰ 19,390 12,331 7,059 24,821 33,938 28,038 118,772 28,897

Ⅱ 22,899 14,538 8,361 35,163 46,575 42,610 181,308 34,068

Ⅲ 22,724 15,087 7,638 36,274 57,537 36,468 240,060 32,524

Ⅳp 26,493 17,167 9,325 36,994 51,790 45,502 225,188 61,512

2014 12 9,514 5,355 4,159 12,209 13,751 7,233 69,267 40,379

2015 1 6,172 3,900 2,271 7,216 9,619 7,573 33,271 36,985

2 6,106 3,900 2,206 5,367 9,591 7,243 33,301 33,813

3 7,113 4,531 2,582 12,238 14,728 13,222 52,200 28,897

4 7,061 4,526 2,535 9,048 15,816 13,790 51,345 28,093

5 7,112 4,710 2,402 12,556 14,732 13,071 56,861 28,142

6 8,725 5,301 3,424 13,559 16,027 15,749 73,102 34,068

7 7,238 4,926 2,312 8,680 23,044 12,217 82,836 33,177

8 7,280 4,825 2,455 8,496 16,651 13,205 69,269 31,698

9 8,206 5,336 2,870 19,097 17,841 11,046 87,955 32,524

10p 7,808 5,321 2,487 10,377 17,159 18,131 64,200 32,221

11p 8,014 5,458 2,556 13,216 16,130 15,960 62,823 49,724

12p 10,671 6,388 4,283 13,401 18,501 11,412 98,165 61,512


2014 -0.8 7.8 -12.3 15.3 11.2 7.3 17.1 -20,712

2015p 2.1 5.7 -4.0 48.3 34.3 36.3 48.5 21,133

2014 Ⅳ -5.9 (-3.9) -0.9 -12.4 -7.5 (-29.0) -4.6 6.8 3.9 1,211

2015 Ⅰ -2.0 ( 4.8) -0.4 -4.6 55.4 ( 50.9) 11.0 21.0 27.3 -11,482

Ⅱ -3.9 (-2.7) -3.7 -4.3 50.0 ( 13.4) 25.1 45.3 43.1 5,171

Ⅲ 5.9 ( 7.5) 10.3 -1.9 50.9 ( 19.4) 57.0 33.8 82.7 -1,544

Ⅳp 7.8 (-1.5) 16.2 -4.8 40.2 (-27.7) 40.4 41.4 37.4 28,988

2014 12 -2.9 ( 0.5) 0.3 -6.8 -3.9 ( 15.4) -7.3 -29.8 -17.7 676

2015 1 -4.4 ( 4.3) -1.7 -8.6 30.5 ( 37.6) 36.8 45.2 35.2 -3,394

2 0.2 ( 4.9) 0.6 -0.3 -3.3 (-16.6) -20.6 -0.9 12.1 -3,172

3 -1.8 (-7.2) -0.1 -4.5 150.0 ( 74.2) 28.3 24.3 34.0 -4,916

4 -8.4 (-2.1) -8.9 -7.6 22.9 (-23.1) 20.3 20.5 20.2 -804

5 -4.7 ( 2.2) -2.3 -9.0 83.7 ( 34.6) 26.5 46.0 36.8 49

6 0.8 ( 4.1) -0.1 2.2 46.7 (-26.6) 28.8 76.3 72.3 5,926

7 0.4 ( 0.4) 6.5 -10.5 24.6 ( -3.4) 88.2 46.3 85.8 -891

8 3.5 ( 2.6) 7.5 -3.6 -2.2 ( 13.0) 25.2 57.3 41.2 -1,479

9 13.7 ( 5.2) 17.0 8.1 128.0 ( 80.4) 60.6 5.1 133.1 826

10p 4.3 (-7.3) 13.2 -10.7 33.8 (-48.1) 40.9 26.7 41.2 -303

11p 5.9 (-0.7) 15.8 -10.6 105.6 ( 18.0) 47.3 49.9 27.7 17,503

12p 12.2 ( 7.4) 19.3 3.0 9.8 (-38.6) 34.5 57.8 41.7 11,788

주: 년�불변가격1) 2010 .는�잠정치2) p .

전기대비�증감3) .는�계절조정�전기대비�증가율4) ( ) .

자료: 통계청 국토교통부; .

Note: 1) At 2010 Constant Prices.2) p is preliminary.3) Month-on-month number changes.4) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the

previous period (S.A.).Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport.

46

상품수출�및� 수입 품목별�수출Commodity Exports and Commodity Imports Exports by Item

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�수출(Exports)

�수입(Imports)


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016ICT(ICT)�자동차�및�부품(Automobiles & Parts)�석유류(Petrochemicals & Petroleum Products)


일평균�수출�및� 수입액 수출입�가격�및� 교역조건Average Exports and Imports per Day Export and Import Prices, and Terms of Trade

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�일평균�수출액(Average Exports per Day)

�일평균�수입액(Average Imports per Day)

(억달러�/�Hundred Million US Dollars)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�수출가격(Export Price)

�수입가격(Import Price)

�순상품교역조건(Terms of Trade)


47

수출 수입�및�교역조건6-1. ,Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade

억달러( , Hundred Million US Dollars, 2010=100)

수출

Exports

수입

Imports

무역수지

Balance

of Trade

수출물가(계약시점)Export Price(Time ofContract

Formation)

수입물가(계약시점)Import Price(Time ofContract

Formation)

수출가격(통관시점)Export Price(CustomsClearancePoint)

수입가격(통관시점)Import Price(CustomsClearancePoint)

교역조건

Termsof Trade

2013 5,596 5,156 440.5 99.0 108.4 99.0 110.5 89.6

2014 5,727 5,255 471.5 96.8 104.3 96.8 107.6 89.92015p 5,269 4,365 903.5 85.5 82.3 85.8 85.9 100.0

2014 Ⅳ 1,477 1,294 183.5 93.1 95.8 93.6 101.7 92.0

2015 Ⅰ 1,334 1,117 216.6 87.9 85.8 88.4 89.9 98.4Ⅱ 1,351 1,105 246.3 88.3 85.7 88.4 88.3 100.2Ⅲ 1,282 1,080 202.1 84.4 80.4 84.9 84.6 100.4Ⅳp 1,302 1,063 238.6 81.2 77.1 81.6 80.7 101.1

2015 1 451 393 58.1 87.7 85.0 88.6 92.3 96.02 415 340 75.1 88.1 86.6 88.6 88.3 100.43 468 385 83.4 87.8 85.8 88.1 89.1 98.9

4 462 378 83.8 88.1 85.5 88.1 88.5 99.65 423 360 62.9 88.8 86.4 88.7 88.1 100.86 466 366 99.6 88.1 85.3 88.4 88.3 100.17 457 387 70.1 86.2 82.6 86.7 87.0 99.7

8 391 348 43.0 84.1 79.8 84.6 84.6 100.09 434 345 89.0 83.0 78.9 83.4 82.1 101.610 434 368 66.0 82.4 78.9 82.7 81.4 101.511 443 341 102.6 81.2 77.3 81.7 81.1 100.8

12p 425 355 70.0 80.1 75.2 80.3 79.7 100.8

2016 1p 367 314 53.0 - - - - -


2013 2.1 -0.8 - -1.5 -4.6 -1.9 -4.7 2.92014 2.3 1.9 - -2.2 -3.8 -2.2 -2.6 0.42015p -8.0 -16.9 - -11.7 -21.2 -11.3 -20.2 11.2

2014 Ⅳ 0.9 -2.8 - -5.7 -11.5 -5.0 -7.5 2.72015 Ⅰ -3.0 -15.6 - -10.4 -20.4 -9.7 -18.4 10.7

Ⅱ -7.3 -15.6 - -9.8 -20.5 -9.4 -19.2 12.2Ⅲ -9.5 -18.7 - -13.9 -24.1 -13.3 -22.5 11.9

Ⅳp -11.9 -17.8 - -12.8 -19.5 -12.8 -20.6 9.8

2015 1 -1.0 -12.2 - -10.7 -21.2 -9.6 -16.8 8.62 -3.3 -19.3 - -10.3 -19.9 -9.6 -19.6 12.5

3 -4.6 -15.5 - -10.3 -20.2 -9.8 -18.9 11.34 -8.0 -17.5 - -9.8 -20.4 -9.5 -19.0 11.75 -11.0 -15.4 - -9.3 -19.8 -9.1 -19.4 12.86 -2.7 -13.8 - -10.4 -21.2 -9.7 -19.4 12.0

7 -5.2 -15.7 - -12.6 -23.3 -11.7 -21.0 11.88 -15.2 -18.6 - -14.4 -24.9 -13.8 -22.7 11.59 -8.5 -21.8 - -14.6 -24.2 -14.4 -23.9 12.410 -16.0 -16.6 - -13.7 -21.4 -13.6 -23.0 12.2

11 -4.9 -17.6 - -13.1 -19.8 -13.0 -20.3 9.112p -14.1 -19.2 - -11.4 -17.0 -11.8 -18.3 8.0

2016 1p -18.5 -20.1 - - - - - -

주: 는�잠정치p .자료: 관세청 산업통상자원부 한국은행; ; ; OECD.

Note: p is preliminary.Source: Korea Customs Service; Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy;

Bank of Korea; OECD.

48

경상수지 수출�및�수입 기준(BOP )Current Account Exports and Imports (BOP)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�경상수지(Current Account)

�상품수지(Balance of Goods)


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�수출(Exports of Goods, BOP)

�수입(Imports of Goods, BOP)


경상수지�및� 금융계정 항목별�금융계정Current Account and Financial Account Financial Account by Type

0

50

100

150

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�경상수지(Current Account)

�금융계정(Financial Account)


-50

0

50

100

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�직접투자수지(Direct) �증권투자수지(Portfolio)

�기타투자수지(Other)


49

경상수지�및� 금융계정6-2.Current Account and Financial Account

억달러( , Hundred Million US Dollars)

경상수지 금융계정

CurrentAccount

상품수지

Balance ofGoods

서비스수지

Balance ofServices

본원

소득수지Balance of

Primary Income

FinancialAccount

직접투자

DirectInvestment

증권투자

PortfolioInvestment

기타투자

OtherInvestment

2011 186.6 290.9 -122.8 65.6 243.2 199.3 -131.4 25.4

2012 508.4 494.1 -52.1 121.2 515.8 211.4 -67.5 266.4

2013 811.5 827.8 -65.0 90.6 801.0 155.9 93.4 432.8

2014 843.7 888.9 -36.8 41.5 893.3 187.7 306.1 259.0

2015p 1,059.6 1,203.7 -157.1 59.0 1,096.3 226.0 496.1 228.3

2014 Ⅲ 206.6 209.8 -4.6 14.0 212.3 29.5 42.9 98.0

Ⅳ 264.5 251.4 -3.8 29.3 283.3 54.6 94.1 187.9

2015 Ⅰp 224.4 242.2 -43.9 38.3 238.0 43.9 78.4 45.1

Ⅱp 279.2 336.8 -30.9 -15.6 286.7 74.7 69.9 73.7

Ⅲp 291.1 306.4 -35.6 27.3 296.2 49.2 151.0 98.4

Ⅳp 264.9 318.4 -46.7 9.0 275.4 58.2 196.8 11.1

2014 3 63.1 76.4 -6.3 -3.8 48.3 21.9 17.9 -3.8

4 70.3 100.7 -2.3 -19.1 61.1 23.7 -17.9 57.6

5 91.9 87.9 1.6 6.3 82.2 35.1 20.3 -27.4

6 78.9 63.2 1.2 18.4 103.2 21.1 40.6 1.6

7 61.0 56.8 3.4 4.7 47.9 4.9 17.0 -1.3

8 69.7 70.4 -3.9 8.4 78.7 5.2 -7.1 78.4

9 76.0 82.6 -4.1 1.0 85.8 19.4 33.0 20.9

10 87.4 79.8 1.6 8.6 72.4 27.7 3.4 39.6

11 107.6 95.9 0.9 11.8 104.6 20.0 26.9 85.8

12 69.5 75.6 -6.4 8.9 106.3 6.9 63.9 62.6

2015 1p 62.6 63.1 -19.9 25.6 79.0 6.6 36.2 -4.9

2p 60.8 70.2 -17.6 10.4 51.8 16.3 30.0 3.7

3p 101.0 108.9 -6.4 2.3 107.3 21.0 12.1 46.2

4p 77.3 120.9 -8.0 -31.0 98.0 17.1 1.4 48.5

5p 83.2 87.9 -0.8 0.4 85.6 9.5 3.6 47.6

6p 118.7 128.0 -22.0 15.0 103.1 48.1 65.0 -22.4

7p 97.1 99.2 -12.5 11.4 100.2 -0.2 82.8 17.9

8p 85.5 88.1 -10.1 8.5 90.5 3.3 25.4 84.5

9p 108.5 119.1 -12.9 7.4 105.4 46.1 42.8 -4.0

10p 91.2 106.1 -17.0 5.9 110.9 35.0 71.0 -9.3

11p 99.1 104.7 -12.6 8.9 87.0 9.0 51.3 16.6

12p 74.6 107.7 -17.0 -5.9 77.6 14.2 74.6 3.8

2015 1~12p 1,059.6 1,203.7 -157.1 59.0 1,096.3 226.0 496.1 228.3

주: 는�잠정치p .자료: 한국은행.

Note: p is preliminary.Source: Bank of Korea.

50

취업자�및� 실업자 계절조정( ) 종사상�지위별�취업자�증감Employed and Unemployed Changes in the Number of Employed Persons

(Seasonally Adjusted) by Status of Worker

247

250

253

256

259

262

265

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

7

8

9

10

11

12

�취업자수(좌)�/�Employed (left)

�실업자수(우)�/�Unemployed (right)

�(십만명�/�100�thousand persons)

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�상용근로자(Regular Employees)

�임시�및�일용�근로자(Temp. & Daily Employees)

(전년동기대비,�천명�/

Year-on-Year Change, Thousand Persons)

고용률�및� 실업률 계절조정( ) 종사상�지위별�임금�상승률Employment Rate and Unemployment Rate Wage Growth Rate by Status of Worker

(Seasonally Adjusted)

63.5

64.0

64.5

65.0

65.5

66.0

66.5

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

2.8

3.1

3.4

3.7

4.0

4.3

�15~64세�고용률(좌)�/�Emp. Rate for Persons Aged 15~64(left)�실업률(우)�/�Unemp. Rate(right)

(%)

-16

-8

0

8

16

24

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9

2013 2014 2015

�상용근로자(Regular Employees)

�임시�및�일용�근로자(Temp. & Daily Employees)


51

고용�및�임금7.Employment and Wage

주요�고용지표�Main Employment Statistics주당평균취업시간

Weekly Avg.Working

Hours

전체근로자�

평균임금총액3)

Total Avg.Wage of AllEmployees

EmployedPersons

취업자�수1) 고용률(%)2)

Employment Rate실업자�수1)

UnemployedPersons

실업률(%)Unemp.Rate

상용Regular

Employees

임시일용Temp. & DailyEmployees

15세�이상

15 age≤

15세�이상�

64세�이하15 age 64≤ ≤

2014 25,599 12,156 6,587 60.2 65.3 937 3.5 43.8 3,1902015 25,936 12,588 6,642 60.3 65.7 976 3.6 43.6 -

2014 Ⅳ 25,767 12,280 6,688 60.4 65.6 854 3.2 44.1 3,2522015 Ⅰ 25,267 12,341 6,418 59.0 64.9 1,089 4.1 43.7 3,356

Ⅱ 26,098 12,507 6,720 60.7 65.9 1,042 3.8 44.2 3,128Ⅲ 26,237 12,686 6,715 60.9 66.1 929 3.4 42.9 3,350Ⅳ 26,143 12,817 6,716 60.5 66.1 845 3.1 43.8 -

2014 12 25,384 12,310 6,568 59.4 65.3 886 3.4 43.7 3,646

2015 1 25,106 12,304 6,411 58.7 64.8 988 3.8 43.1 3,3492 25,195 12,353 6,408 58.8 64.9 1,203 4.6 43.8 3,5473 25,501 12,364 6,434 59.5 64.9 1,076 4.0 44.2 3,1744 25,900 12,448 6,633 60.3 65.6 1,053 3.9 44.1 3,1225 26,189 12,517 6,768 60.9 66.1 1,022 3.8 44.4 3,0456 26,205 12,558 6,758 60.9 66.0 1,050 3.9 44.1 3,2177 26,305 12,627 6,796 61.1 66.3 998 3.7 43.9 3,3158 26,141 12,675 6,637 60.7 65.9 923 3.4 40.7 3,1989 26,264 12,757 6,711 60.9 66.1 866 3.2 44.0 3,53710 26,298 12,801 6,728 60.9 66.2 839 3.1 44.1 3,14711 26,253 12,791 6,793 60.8 66.3 829 3.1 43.6 3,06212 25,879 12,858 6,629 59.9 65.9 868 3.2 43.6 -

전년동기대비�증가율(%)4)

Percentage Change from the Same Period of the Previous Year

2014 2.1 (533) 3.8 (443) 1.6 (105) - - 16.1 (130) - 1.6 2.52015 1.3 (337) 3.6 (432) 0.8 ( 55) - - 4.2 ( 40) - -0.5 -

2014 Ⅳ 1.7 (422) 3.0 (355) 1.9 (122) 60.3 65.5 16.6 (122) 3.5 -0.7 4.02015 Ⅰ 1.4 (354) 3.0 (355) 1.4 ( 87) 60.5 65.9 5.6 ( 58) 3.7 -0.2 3.1

Ⅱ 1.2 (308) 2.7 (332) 1.4 ( 90) 59.9 65.3 6.6 ( 65) 3.8 -0.9 3.4Ⅲ 1.2 (310) 4.1 (505) 0.2 ( 16) 60.3 65.7 5.1 ( 45) 3.6 0.2 3.8Ⅳ 1.5 (376) 4.4 (536) 0.4 ( 28) 60.5 66.0 -1.0 ( -9) 3.4 -0.7 -

2014 12 1.7 (422) 3.1 (372) 1.4 ( 92) 60.3 65.7 14.6 (113) 3.5 -0.9 2.8

2015 1 1.4 (347) 2.9 (353) 1.7 (106) 60.5 66.0 10.9 ( 97) 3.4 -0.9 -8.82 1.5 (376) 3.2 (383) 1.3 ( 83) 60.7 66.1 2.1 ( 24) 3.9 0.2 16.43 1.3 (338) 2.7 (331) 1.1 ( 70) 60.3 65.6 5.1 ( 52) 3.7 0.2 3.94 0.8 (216) 2.5 (300) 0.7 ( 47) 60.0 65.4 2.2 ( 23) 3.7 -0.9 2.85 1.5 (379) 2.9 (351) 1.7 (110) 59.9 65.3 7.4 ( 71) 3.9 -0.7 3.86 1.3 (329) 2.8 (346) 1.7 (111) 59.9 65.3 10.6 (101) 3.9 -1.1 3.57 1.3 (326) 3.8 (462) 0.2 ( 15) 60.1 65.6 9.5 ( 87) 3.7 -0.9 4.08 1.0 (256) 4.2 (510) 0.4 ( 26) 60.3 65.8 3.7 ( 33) 3.6 2.0 1.29 1.3 (347) 4.5 (545) 0.1 ( 5) 60.4 65.9 1.9 ( 16) 3.5 -0.2 6.110 1.3 (348) 4.6 (565) 0.3 ( 18) 60.3 65.9 -2.3 ( -19) 3.4 -0.5 0.611 1.1 (285) 4.0 (496) 0.1 ( 7) 60.3 65.9 1.4 ( 11) 3.4 -1.4 2.612 2.0 (495) 4.5 (548) 0.9 ( 61) 60.8 66.3 -2.1 ( -19) 3.4 -0.2 -

주: 천명1) .취업자 세이상인구2) ( /15 )X100.천원 상용근로자가� 인이상인�사업체에�종사3) ; 5하는�상용 임시 일용�근로자의� 인당�임금총액, , 1 .

는�전년동기대비�증감 천명4) ( ) ( ),계절조정�고용률과�실업률.

자료: 통계청 고용노동부 사업체노동력조사; ( ).

Note: 1) Thousand persons.2) (Employed persons/pop.15 years old and over)X100.3) Thousand won; The total wage per person, who is a permanent or a temporary or

a daily employee, at an establishment with more than five permanent employees.4) Parentheses indicate year-on-year number changes (Thousand persons), unemployment

rate and employment rate are seasonally adjusted.Source: Statistics Korea; Ministry of Employment and Labor (Report on the Labor Survey

at Establishments).

52

소비자물가�및�근원물가 생산자물가�및� 디플레이터GDPConsumer and Core Prices Producer Price and GDP Deflator

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�소비자물가(Consumer Price)

�근원물가(Core Price)


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2013 2014 2015

�생산자물가(Producer Price)

GDP 디플레이터(GDP Deflator)


수출물가�및� 수입물가� 주택매매�및� 전세�가격Export and Import Prices Housing Purchase and Chonsei Prices

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�수출물가(Export Price)

�수입물가(Import Price)


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�주택매매(Housing Purchase Price)

�주택전세(Housing Chonsei Price)

(전월대비,�%�/�Month-on-Month % Change)

53

물가8.Price Indices


소비자물가��Consumer Price근원물가Core Price

GDP디플레이터

GDPDeflator

생산자물가

ProducerPrice

수출물가ExportPrice

수입물가ImportPrice

주택매매가격1)

HousingPurchase

Price

주택전세가격1)

HousingChonseiPrice

토지가격(전국)1)

Land Price(Nation-wide)

총지수2)

All Items

상품Goods

서비스Services

2011 4.0 5.6 2.7 3.2 1.6 6.7 0.2 11.6 6.2 11.7 1.2

2012 2.2 3.1 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.7 -2.4 -0.7 -1.4 1.5 1.0

2013 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.6 0.9 -1.6 -4.3 -7.3 0.3 4.7 1.1

2014 1.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 0.6 -0.5 -6.0 -7.5 1.7 3.4 2.0

2015 0.7 -0.7 1.8 2.2 - -4.0 -5.2 -15.3 3.6 4.9 2.4

2013 Ⅰ 1.6 ( 0.8) 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.5 -1.9 -6.5 -10.0 -0.5 0.8 0.2

Ⅱ 1.2 (-0.1) 0.7 1.7 1.6 1.0 -2.3 -4.5 -8.0 0.3 1.0 0.4

Ⅲ 1.4 ( 0.4) 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 -1.4 -2.8 -5.9 -0.1 1.2 0.1

Ⅳ 1.1 (-0.0) 0.8 1.3 1.9 0.5 -0.9 -3.1 -5.3 0.6 1.6 0.4

2014 Ⅰ 1.1 ( 0.9) 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.3 -0.6 -3.3 -4.1 0.6 1.6 0.4

Ⅱ 1.6 ( 0.3) 1.6 1.6 2.2 0.2 -0.1 -8.6 -7.5 0.1 0.3 0.5

Ⅲ 1.4 ( 0.2) 1.0 1.7 2.2 0.1 -0.2 -8.2 -9.1 0.4 0.6 0.5

Ⅳ 1.0 (-0.4) 0.2 1.6 1.7 0.7 -1.3 -3.6 -9.5 0.5 0.8 0.6

2015 Ⅰ 0.6 ( 0.4) -0.7 1.6 2.3 1.8 -3.6 -7.8 -18.1 0.7 1.1 0.5

Ⅱ 0.5 ( 0.3) -0.8 1.6 2.1 2.7 -3.6 -3.9 -15.2 1.1 1.5 0.6

Ⅲ 0.7 ( 0.4) -0.9 2.0 2.1 2.7 -4.4 -1.9 -13.6 0.9 1.1 0.6

Ⅳ 1.1 (-0.0) -0.4 2.2 2.4 - -4.4 -7.0 -14.2 0.8 1.1 0.7

2014 11 1.0 (-0.2) 0.2 1.6 1.6 - -0.9 -2.2 -8.0 0.2 0.3 0.2

12 0.8 (-0.0) 0.0 1.6 1.6 - -2.1 -4.4 -13.0 0.1 0.2 0.2

2015 1 0.8 ( 0.5) -0.1 1.5 2.4 - -3.6 -8.6 -19.4 0.2 0.3 0.1

2 0.5 (-0.0) -0.7 1.5 2.3 - -3.6 -8.1 -17.8 0.2 0.3 0.1

3 0.4 ( 0.0) -1.2 1.6 2.1 - -3.7 -6.8 -17.1 0.3 0.5 0.2

4 0.4 ( 0.1) -1.1 1.6 2.0 - -3.6 -6.0 -17.1 0.4 0.6 0.2

5 0.5 ( 0.3) -0.8 1.6 2.1 - -3.5 -3.5 -14.6 0.3 0.4 0.2

6 0.7 ( 0.0) -0.5 1.6 2.0 - -3.6 -2.2 -14.1 0.4 0.5 0.2

7 0.7 ( 0.2) -0.8 2.0 2.0 - -4.0 -2.0 -14.0 0.3 0.3 0.2

8 0.7 ( 0.2) -0.8 2.0 2.1 - -4.5 -1.6 -13.6 0.2 0.3 0.2

9 0.6 (-0.2) -1.1 2.0 2.1 - -4.6 -2.1 -13.1 0.4 0.5 0.2

10 0.9 ( 0.0) -0.6 2.1 2.3 - -4.6 -6.5 -14.9 0.3 0.4 0.2

11 1.0 (-0.1) -0.5 2.2 2.4 - -4.7 -8.6 -15.6 0.3 0.4 0.2

12 1.3 (0.3) 0.0 2.3 2.4 - -3.9 -6.0 -11.9 0.2 0.3 0.3

2016 1 0.8 (0.0) -1.1 2.4 1.7 - - - - 0.0 0.1 -

주: 원화기준1) ,기말기준�전기대비2) .

는�전기대비�증가율3) ( ) .자료: 통계청 한국은행 한국감정원 국토교통부; ; ; .

Note: 1) Won basis.2) Based on the end of period and Period-on-Period.3) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from the

previous period.Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea; Korea Appraisal Board;

Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport.

54

금리차 주가지수Spreads Stock Market Indices

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�장단기�금리차(국고채3년물�-�콜금리)

�신용�금리차(회사채(AA-) - 국고채�3년물)

(%)

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

400

500

600

700

800

�종합주가지수(좌)�/�KOSPI (left)

�코스닥(우)�/�KOSDAQ (right)

외국인�순매수 통화량Net Purchases by Foreign Investors Monetary Aggregates

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�코스닥(KOSDAQ)

�유가증권(KOSPI)

(조원�/�Trillion Won)

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9

2013 2014 2015

�광의통화(M2) �협의통화(M1)

�금융기관유동성(Lf)


55

금융시장�9-1. (I)Financial Market (I)

조원(%, , Trillion Won)

금리1)Market Interest Rates 주식시장 Stock Market 통화량 Monetary Aggregates

콜금리1 day

Call Rate

양도성예금증서3 month

CD

국고채3 yearTreasuryBonds

종합주가지수KOSPI

외국인�

순매수2)

ForeignInvestors'

Net Purchase

본원통화ReserveMoney

협의통화3)

(M1)NarrowMoney

광의통화4)

(M2)BroadMoney

금융기관

유동성(Lf)Liquidity

of FinancialInstitutions

2013 2.52 2.66 2.86 2,011 3,194 91 484 1,886 2,543

2014 2.03 2.13 2.10 1,916 4,673 103 537 2,010 2,722

2015 1.52 1.67 1.66 1,961 -4,433 - - - -

2014 Ⅳ 2.03 2.13 2.10 1,916 -2,828 110 578 2,089 2,835

2015 Ⅰ 1.74 1.85 1.72 2,041 3,147 116 601 2,128 2,908

Ⅱ 1.50 1.65 1.79 2,074 5,231 119 631 2,180 2,986

Ⅲ 1.49 1.59 1.57 1,963 -7,674 127 666 2,230 3,050

Ⅳ 1.52 1.67 1.66 1,961 -5,137 - - - -

2014 1 2.51 2.65 2.88 1,941 -1,645 99 516 1,937 2,635

2 2.49 2.65 2.85 1,980 -722 101 518 1,954 2,648

3 2.49 2.65 2.87 1,986 -1,142 101 520 1,965 2,659

4 2.50 2.65 2.87 1,962 2,746 99 519 1,970 2,669

5 2.49 2.65 2.82 1,995 1,909 102 523 1,982 2,685

6 2.49 2.65 2.68 2,002 1,093 101 532 1,999 2,703

7 2.49 2.65 2.52 2,076 4,066 101 534 2,014 2,726

8 2.24 2.40 2.51 2,069 1,824 108 539 2,032 2,744

9 2.24 2.35 2.30 2,020 -627 105 549 2,038 2,759

10 1.97 2.14 2.14 1,964 -2,044 107 551 2,051 2,777

11 1.99 2.13 2.07 1,981 1,541 107 562 2,083 2,818

12 2.03 2.13 2.10 1,916 -2,326 110 578 2,089 2,835

2015 1 2.00 2.12 1.97 1,949 -1,045 113 580 2,092 2,858

2 1.99 2.10 2.03 1,986 1,328 117 593 2,110 2,876

3 1.74 1.85 1.72 2,041 2,864 116 601 2,128 2,908

4 1.74 1.80 1.84 2,127 4,618 115 611 2,148 2,937

5 1.74 1.80 1.75 2,115 1,664 118 622 2,167 2,961

6 1.50 1.65 1.79 2,074 -1,051 119 631 2,180 2,986

7 1.50 1.64 1.77 2,030 -1,800 122 646 2,201 3,014

8 1.52 1.63 1.74 1,941 -4,108 122 653 2,219 3,029

9 1.49 1.59 1.57 1,963 -1,766 127 666 2,230 3,050

10 1.50 1.57 1.66 2,029 108 126 670 2,232 3,059

11 1.50 1.66 1.79 1,992 -1,949 127 678 2,243 3,079

12 1.52 1.67 1.66 1,961 -3,297 - - - -

2016 1 1.50 1.65 1.56 1,912 -2,967 - - - -

주: 기말기준임1) .코스닥시장은�제외 단위는�십억원2) , .

가�제외된� 임3) MMF M1 .년� 월부터�증권사의� 를�포함4) 2009 8 CMA .

자료: 한국은행 금융투자협회 한국거래소; ; .

Note: 1) End of period.2) KOSDAQ market is excluded. Billion won.3) MMF is excluded.4) Securities CMA is included from Aug. 2009.

Source: Bank of Korea; Korea Financial Investment Association;Korea Stock Exchange.

56

은행�및� 자산운용사�수신 은행�및� 자산운용사�수신 말잔( )Deposits at Banks & Asset Management Companies Deposits at Banks & Asset

Management Companies(End of Period)

-20

0

20

40

60

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�은행(Banks)

�자산운용사(Asset Management Companies)

(월중�증감액,�조원�/�Changes during the Month, Trillion Won)

0

5

10

15

20

25

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�은행(Banks)

�자산운용사(Asset Management Companies)


기업대출 부문별�은행대출Banks Loans to the Corporate Sector Bank Loans by Sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�대기업(Large Corporations)�중소기업(Small & Medium Corporations)

(월중�증감액,�조원�/�Changes during the Month, Trillion Won)

-5

0

5

10

15

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�대기업(Large Corporations)�중소기업(Small & Medium Corporations)

�가계(Households)


57

금융시장�9-2. (II)Financial Market (II)

십억원( , Billion Won)

금융기관�수신1)

Deposits in Financial Institutions금융기관�여신1)

Loans in Financial Institutions

은행2) 자산운용사4) 은행대출��Banks Loans2)

Banks

저축성예금Asset

Management

Companies

MMF

Money MarketFunds

대기업

LargeCorporations

중소기업

Small &MediumCorporations

가��계3)

HouseholdsTime & Savings

Deposits

수시입출금식예금

TransferableDeposits

2013 40,970 10,992 16,957 17,662 3,263 8,202 26,577 23,306

2014 115,416 55,658 38,035 42,383 15,967 18,465 33,513 37,323

2015 100,349 51,239 58,733 44,442 11,039 -4,481 52,773 78,212

2014 Ⅳ 80,393 17,014 18,758 14,175 -2,648 3,975 5,226 20,446

2015 Ⅰ -2,423 -2,832 9,042 23,457 19,117 447 15,368 9,667

Ⅱ 35,387 15,956 19,427 15,224 4,190 -4,313 16,510 23,923

Ⅲ 29,385 12,993 12,727 8,077 -4,437 619 15,814 21,204

Ⅳ 38,000 25,121 17,537 -2,316 -7,831 -1,234 5,081 23,418

2013 12 -2,230 -7,878 1,199 -3,802 -6,977 -7,119 -5,628 2,216

2014 1 1,270 4,866 1,446 8,550 6,037 6,383 4,498 -2,178

2 11,673 8,873 3,427 6,746 4,924 1,736 2,450 1,278

3 -675 -568 -3,011 -5,604 -3,270 -1,523 3,268 280

4 -3,271 -1,919 -1,292 -3,134 -3,284 5,868 3,704 2,119

5 13,901 11,817 7,244 5,974 6,548 2,226 3,724 1,213

6 9,326 4,247 2,993 -1,145 -3,999 -1,213 1,475 3,059

7 -8,756 1,907 -2,924 8,066 6,519 51 2,680 2,830

8 7,846 4,682 6,622 5,366 5,652 429 3,509 4,555

9 3,709 4,740 4,771 3,390 -513 531 2,978 3,719

10 7,332 5,244 3,250 20,405 9,993 2,710 4,456 6,937

11 21,019 10,667 6,849 1,776 -1,167 -819 4,935 6,875

12 52,042 1,102 8,659 -8,005 -11,474 2,083 -4,165 6,633

2015 1 -17,580 -12,838 -7,577 14,597 12,335 3,501 4,420 1,367

2 9,478 3,736 12,423 6,909 5,017 -134 4,896 3,675

3 5,679 6,270 4,196 1,950 1,765 -2,920 6,051 4,625

4 -76 -3,605 19 13,076 11,126 -389 6,592 8,457

5 15,608 8,027 6,886 -2,719 -3,287 -1,995 5,679 7,345

6 19,854 11,534 12,522 4,867 -3,649 -1,929 4,240 8,121

7 597 -1,653 -3,503 13,879 9,899 -299 5,037 7,294

8 14,357 7,312 5,709 1,663 -3,825 729 5,293 7,701

9 14,430 7,334 10,522 -7,466 -10,511 188 5,484 6,209

10 11,865 6,717 -2,177 6,445 2,547 3,105 6,219 8,953

11 5,443 875 1,542 -3,839 -4,136 1,265 3,124 7,525

12 20,692 17,530 18,172 -4,922 -6,242 -5,604 -4,261 6,940

주: 기간�중�증감액임1) .산업은행�포함2) .모기지론�양도�포함3) .

년� 월부터�재간접펀드�통계산정방식�변경4) 2014 7 .자료: 한국은행 금감원; .

Note: 1) Changes during the period.2) Korea Development Bank is included.3) Loans assigned to KHFC are included.4) The Fund of Funds (FOF) calculation method was changed in Jul. 2014.

Source: Bank of Korea; Financial Supervisory Service.

58

미국과�유로의�산업생산 일본과�중국의�산업생산Industrial Production of US and Euro Industrial Production of Japan and China

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

�미국(US) �유로(Euro)


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

4

6

8

10

12

�일본(좌)�/�JPN (left) �중국(우)�/�CHN (right)


미국과�유로의�소매판매 일본과�중국의�소매판매Retail Sales of US and Euro Retail Sales of Japan and China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

-1

0

1

3

4

�미국(좌)�/�US (left) �유로(우)�/�Euro (right)


-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2013 2014 2015

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

�일본(좌)�/�JPN (left) �중국(우)�/�CHN (right)


59

세계경제�동향�10-1. (I)Major Indicators of the World Economy (I)

미국 (US) 유로 (Euro)

산업생산�IndustrialProduction

소매판매RetailSales

소비자물가CPI

실업률(계절조정)Unemploy-ment Rate

무역수지Balanceof Trade



소비자물가HICP



전년비y-on-y

전년비y-on-y

전년비y-on-y

%십억달러Bill.$

전년비y-on-y

전년비y-on-y

전년비y-on-y

%십억유로Bill. euros

2013 3.0 4.1 1.5 7.4 -476.4 -0.7 -0.8 1.4 12.0 151.9

2014 4.1 4.0 1.6 6.2 -504.7 0.7 1.3 0.4 11.6 184.3

2015 1.3 2.1 0.1 5.3 - - - 0.0 - -

2014 12 4.4 4.8 0.8 5.6 -45.5 0.8 2.9 -0.2 11.4 23.6

2015 1 4.1 3.4 -0.1 5.7 -43.6 0.7 2.52.5 -0.6 11.2 7.3

2 3.5 1.4 0.0 5.5 -38.5 2.0 2.62.6 -0.3 11.2 19.9

3 2.5 2.3 -0.1 5.5 -52.2 2.1 1.91.9 -0.1 11.1 20.2

4 2.0 1.4 -0.2 5.4 -43.4 0.7 2.62.6 0.0 11.1 21.3

5 1.5 0.7 0.0 5.5 -43.4 1.7 2.72.7 0.3 11.0 18.2

6 1.3 3.3 0.1 5.3 -46.3 1.5 2.12.1 0.2 11.0 25.3

7 1.7 3.2 0.2 5.3 -42.4 1.8 3.5 0.2 10.8 31.2

8 1.7 1.3 0.2 5.1 -48.8 2.2 2.6 0.1 10.8 11.0

9 0.6 2.3 0.0 5.1 -42.5 1.4 3.2 -0.1 10.7 20.0

10 0.6 1.8 0.2 5.0 -44.6 2.0 2.4 0.1 10.6 24.2

11 -1.3 1.7 0.5 5.0 -42.4 1.1 1.4 0.1 10.5 23.6

12 -2.0 2.8 0.7 5.0 - - - 0.2 - -

주: 유로� 개국19 .자료: 미�상무부 미�노동부 미�통계국�등; ; .

유로중앙은행 유로통계국; .

Note: Euro area 19.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis;

Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; ECB; Eurostat.

일본 (Japan) 중국�(China)



소비자물가CPI



공업생산�IndustrialProduction


소비자물가CPI

실업률Unemploy-ment Rate


전년비y-on-y

전년비y-on-y

전년비y-on-y

%십억엔Bill.Y

전년비y-on-y

전년비y-on-y

전년비y-on-y

기말, %EOP

십억달러Bill.$

2013 -0.8 1.0 0.4 4.0 -11,468.4 9.7 13.1 2.6 4.1 259.0

2014 2.1 1.7 2.7 3.6 -12,816.1 8.3 12.0 2.0 4.1 380.9

2015 -0.9 -0.4 0.8 3.4 -2,835.3 6.1 10.6 1.4 601.7

2014 12 -0.1 0.1 2.4 3.4 -665.6 7.9 11.9 1.5 4.1 49.6

2015 1 -2.6 -2.0 2.4 3.6 -1,173.8 0.8 60.0

2 -2.0 -1.7 2.2 3.5 -428.5 6.8 10.7 1.4 60.6

3 -1.7 -9.7 2.3 3.4 222.7 5.6 10.2 1.4 4.1 3.1

4 0.1 4.9 0.6 3.3 -59.3 5.9 10.0 1.5 34.1

5 -3.9 3.0 0.5 3.3 -220.6 6.1 10.1 1.2 58.9

6 2.3 1.0 0.4 3.4 -74.4 6.8 10.6 1.4 4.0 46.5

7 0.0 1.8 0.3 3.3 -270.5 6.0 10.5 1.6 43.0

8 -0.4 0.8 0.2 3.4 -571.5 6.1 10.8 2.0 60.2

9 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 3.4 -120.0 5.7 10.9 1.6 4.1 60.3

10 -1.4 1.8 0.3 3.1 104.8 5.6 11.0 1.3 61.6

11 1.7 -1.1 0.3 3.3 -384.6 6.2 11.2 1.5 53.7

12 -1.6 -1.1 0.2 3.3 140.3 5.9 11.1 1.6 59.4

자료: 경제산업성 총무성�통계국 재무성; ; .중국�국가통계국 중국�해관총서; .

Source: Statistics Bureau; Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry;Ministry of Finance Japan.National Bureau of Statics of China; China Customs.

60

주요�선진국에�대한�원화환율 엔화�및�유로화�환율Exchange Rates of Major Currencies against Won Exchange Rates of Yen and Euro

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�원/달러(\/US$)

�원/100엔(\/100￥)

(기말�/�End of period)

80

90

100

110

120

130

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

�엔/달러(좌)�/�￥/US$(left)

�유로/달러(우)�/�€/US$(right)


주요국�장기금리 원유�및�원자재�가격Major Countries' Long-Term Interest Rates Crude Oil and Commodity Prices

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

�미국(US) �유로(Euro) �일본(Japan)


20

40

60

80

100

120

3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12

2014 2015 2016

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

�두바이(좌)�/�Dubai(left)

�로이터(우)�/�Reuter(right)

(1931.9.18=100)($/barrel)

61

세계경제�동향�10-2. (II)Major Indicators of the World Economy (II)

기말( , End of Period)

환율Exchange Rates

장기금리(10년물, %)Long-Term Interest Rate (10-year, %)

원유�및�원자재�가격Crude Oil and Commodity

Prices

한국Korea

( /US$)￦

유로Euro

(EURO/US$)

일본Japan

( /US$)￥

미국US T/Note

유로지역Euro AreaGov't Bond

일본Japan

Gov't Bond

두바이1)

Dubai(dollar/barrel)

로이터Reuter Index

(31.9.18=100.0)

2013 1,055.3 0.7247 105.04 2.97 1.93 0.73 105.3 2,628.1

2014 1,099.2 0.8224 119.46 2.18 0.54 0.33 96.6 2,393.8

2015 1,172.0 0.9152 120.58 2.27 0.63 0.27 50.7 2,234.6

2014 1 1,079.2 0.7324 103.40 2.65 1.66 0.62 104.0 2,542.7

2 1,067.7 0.7295 102.19 2.69 1.62 0.59 105.0 2,616.0

3 1,068.8 0.7274 102.90 2.72 1.57 0.65 104.4 2,654.9

4 1,031.7 0.7240 102.63 2.67 1.47 0.62 104.6 2,648.1

5 1,021.6 0.7352 101.74 2.48 1.36 0.58 105.6 2,574.0

6 1,014.4 0.7329 101.44 2.53 1.25 0.57 107.9 2,585.7

7 1,024.3 0.7467 102.87 2.56 1.16 0.54 106.1 2,552.0

8 1,013.6 0.7586 103.69 2.34 0.89 0.50 101.9 2,506.9

9 1,050.6 0.7880 109.41 2.49 0.95 0.53 96.6 2,377.9

10 1,054.0 0.7932 109.33 2.33 0.84 0.46 86.8 2,410.9

11 1,101.1 0.8024 117.91 2.17 0.70 0.42 77.1 2,417.7

12 1,099.2 0.8224 119.46 2.18 0.54 0.33 60.2 2,393.8

2015 1 1,090.8 0.8828 118.39 1.65 0.30 0.28 45.8 2,341.9

2 1,099.2 0.8932 119.39 1.99 0.33 0.34 55.7 2,357.7

3 1,105.0 0.9233 120.08 1.93 0.18 0.41 54.7 2,370.5

4 1,068.1 0.8998 119.05 2.10 0.37 0.33 57.7 2,394.7

5 1,108.0 0.9118 123.85 2.13 0.49 0.40 63.0 2,379.1

6 1,124.1 0.8918 122.57 2.35 0.76 0.45 60.8 2,451.8

7 1,166.3 0.9145 124.17 2.18 0.64 0.41 55.6 2,302.2

8 1,176.3 0.8930 121.26 2.22 0.80 0.38 47.8 2,224.4

9 1,194.5 0.8888 119.84 2.07 0.59 0.35 45.8 2,231.7

10 1,142.3 0.9104 121.00 2.15 0.52 0.30 45.8 2,281.4

11 1,150.4 0.9443 122.81 2.22 0.47 0.31 41.6 2,273.7

12 1,172.0 0.9152 120.58 2.27 0.63 0.27 34.9 2,234.6

2016 1 1,208.4 0.9140 118.81 1.92 0.33 0.10 26.9 -

주: 평균기준1) .자료: 한국은행 유럽중앙은행 한국석유공사; ; .

Note: 1) Period average.Source: Bank of Korea; European Central Bank;

Korea National Oil Corporation.

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