Debapi_Poster_AGU_IDF_6.00_12 5 2013
1
• The rainfall intensity for the Florida Peninsula is higher than the Florida Panhandle • HadCM3 baseline rainfall data is always underestimated compared to the observed rainfall data • High fluctuation of rainfall intensity has been observed in the simulation period of HadCM3 for the Florida Peninsula Overview Future Research • The rainfall intensity for the Florida Peninsula is overestimated compared to the Florida Panhandle for all return periods • Rainfall intensity is spatially increased from the Florida Peninsula to the Florida Panhandle • Rainfall fluctuation increases from the Florida Peninsula to the Florida Panhandle • HadCM3 baseline rainfall data is always underestimated compared to the observed rainfall data Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves over the Florida Panhandle and Peninsula Debapi K. Ghosh, Dingbao Wang ([email protected]), Jayantha Obeysekera and Scott C. Hagen AGU Fall Meeting 2013, Paper Number: GC11A-0958, Abstract Reference Number: 1792561 Hourly Precipitation Annual Maximum Precipitation GEV Fitted Distribution IDF Curve Spatial Analysis Observed Period Simulated period Projection Period (1969-1999) (1969-1999) (2038-2070) Location Parameters • The type, amount, intensity and frequency of rainfall are being directly influenced and altered due to potential climate changes. • Updating of IDF curves based on the future climate condition is very important for managing the hydraulic structures. • The COAPS Land-Atmosphere Regional Ensemble Climate Change Experiment for the Southeast United States at 10-km resolution from Florida State University is used. • More than 30-years of hourly precipitation data are gathered from 57 weather stations in Florida. • The performance of the RCMs is evaluated by comparing historical simulations with observations. • The parameters of generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions including location, scale, and shape parameters are mapped for the period of 1969-1999 and 2038-2070. • The response on the Florida panhandle will be compared and contrasted with that of the larger peninsula. CLAREnCE10 CCSM GFDL HadCM3 Scale Parameters Shape Parameters 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 -1 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 Duration (hr) Intensity (mm/hr) T=100 years(HadCM3) T=25 years(HadCM3) T=2 years(HadCM3) T=100 years(Observed) T=25 years(Observed) T=2 years(Observed) 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 -1 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 Duration (hr) Intensity (mm/hr) 6842 T=100 years(HadCM3) T=25 years(HadCM3) T=2 years(HadCM3) T=100 years(Observed) T=25 years(Observed) T=2 years(Observed) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0 50 100 150 Cumulative Density Function Precipitaion Intensity 2 hour 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0 50 100 150 Cumulative Density Function Precipitaion Intensity (mm/hr) 12 hour 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0 50 100 150 Cumulative Density Function Precipitaion Intensity (mm/hr) 12 hour Observed and Simulated IDF Curves for Florida Peninsula and Florida Panhandle Florida Peninsula Florida Panhandle Comparison of Cumulative Density Function for Observed and HadCM3 during Baseline Period Florida Peninsula Florida Panhandle • Sequential monthly bias correction will be applied for RCM simulation of baseline and future periods • Maximum intensity percentile based method will be applied to the time series of extreme rainfall intensity • The spatial distribution map of rainfall intensity under various durations and return periods will be presented 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0 50 100 150 Cumulative Density Function Precipitaion Intensity 2 hour NCDC Data Summary For more information visit: http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu/CDSLR- AGU2013.html This research was supported in part by the Florida Sea Grant NA10OAR4170079, the NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research grant NA10NOS4780146, and the NASA Kennedy Space Center grant NNK08OQ01C. Study Area Methodology Results
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Transcript of Debapi_Poster_AGU_IDF_6.00_12 5 2013
• The rainfall intensity for the Florida Peninsula is higher than
the Florida Panhandle
• HadCM3 baseline rainfall data is always underestimated
compared to the observed rainfall data
• High fluctuation of rainfall intensity has been observed in the
simulation period of HadCM3 for the Florida Peninsula
Overview
Future Research
• The rainfall intensity for the Florida Peninsula is overestimated compared to the Florida
Panhandle for all return periods
• Rainfall intensity is spatially increased from the Florida Peninsula to the Florida Panhandle
• Rainfall fluctuation increases from the Florida Peninsula to the Florida Panhandle
• HadCM3 baseline rainfall data is always underestimated compared to the observed rainfall data
Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves
over the Florida Panhandle and Peninsula
Debapi K. Ghosh, Dingbao Wang ([email protected]), Jayantha Obeysekera and Scott C. Hagen
AGU Fall Meeting 2013, Paper Number: GC11A-0958, Abstract Reference Number: 1792561
Hourly Precipitation
Annual Maximum
Precipitation
GEV Fitted Distribution
IDF Curve
Spatial Analysis
Observed Period Simulated period Projection Period
(1969-1999) (1969-1999) (2038-2070)
Location Parameters
• The type, amount, intensity and frequency of rainfall are being
directly influenced and altered due to potential climate changes.
• Updating of IDF curves based on the future climate condition is
very important for managing the hydraulic structures.
• The COAPS Land-Atmosphere Regional Ensemble Climate
Change Experiment for the Southeast United States at 10-km
resolution from Florida State University is used.
• More than 30-years of hourly precipitation data are gathered
from 57 weather stations in Florida.
• The performance of the RCMs is evaluated by comparing
historical simulations with observations.
• The parameters of generalized extreme value (GEV)
distributions including location, scale, and shape parameters
are mapped for the period of 1969-1999 and 2038-2070.
• The response on the Florida panhandle will be compared and
contrasted with that of the larger peninsula.
CLAREnCE10
CCSM
GFDL
HadCM3
Scale Parameters
Shape Parameters
100
101
102
103
10-1
100
101
102
103
Duration (hr)
Inte
nsity (
mm
/hr)
4091
T=100 years(HadCM3)
T=25 years(HadCM3)
T=2 years(HadCM3)
T=100 years(Observed)
T=25 years(Observed)
T=2 years(Observed)
100
101
102
103
10-1
100
101
102
103
Duration (hr)
Inte
nsity (
mm
/hr)
6842
T=100 years(HadCM3)
T=25 years(HadCM3)
T=2 years(HadCM3)
T=100 years(Observed)
T=25 years(Observed)
T=2 years(Observed)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 50 100 150
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
ns
ity F
un
cti
on
Precipitaion Intensity
2 hour
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 50 100 150
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
ns
ity F
un
cti
on
Precipitaion Intensity (mm/hr)
12 hour
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 50 100 150
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
ns
ity F
un
cti
on
Precipitaion Intensity (mm/hr)
12 hour
Observed and Simulated IDF Curves for Florida Peninsula
and Florida Panhandle
Florida Peninsula Florida Panhandle
Comparison of Cumulative Density Function for Observed
and HadCM3 during Baseline Period
Florida Peninsula Florida Panhandle
• Sequential monthly bias correction will be applied for RCM simulation of baseline and future
periods
• Maximum intensity percentile based method will be applied to the time series of extreme rainfall
intensity
• The spatial distribution map of rainfall intensity under various durations and return periods will be
presented
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 50 100 150
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
ns
ity F
un
cti
on
Precipitaion Intensity
2 hour
NCDC Data
Summary
For more information visit:
http://champs.cecs.ucf.edu/CDSLR-
AGU2013.html
This research was supported in part by the Florida Sea Grant
NA10OAR4170079, the NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal
Ocean Research grant NA10NOS4780146, and the NASA
Kennedy Space Center grant NNK08OQ01C.
Study Area Methodology
Results
