9621-Dinokeng ZULU(R):Layout 1

T H E

I S I F I N Y E Z O S E B H U K WA N A

AMAKUSASA ANGU-3 ngeNingizimu Afrika

DINOKENG “indawo yemifula”,

. . . konke osekwadlula kwethu kugelezendawonye ukuze kuhlangane kulendawongalesi sikhathi, kanti nawo wonkeamakusasa ethu azogeleza esukela lapha.

I THEBU LA LOKUQUKETHWE

Isethulo 3

Umyalezo we-Dinokeng 6

INingizimu Afrika namuhla 7

INingizimu Afrika ezimpambanweni zomgwaqo 12

Izithombe-simo 15

Isithombe-simo sokuqala: Hamba Ngokwehlukana 16

Isithombe-simo sesibili: Hambela Emuva 19

Isithombe-simo sesithathu: Masihambisane 22

Isiphetho 25

Ababambiqhaza 26

Ukuqaqwa kwezifinyezo 27

AMAKUSASA ANGU -3 NGEN ING IZ IMU AFR I KA 3

I S E THU LO

Izwe lethu liyobukeka kanjani ngowezi-2020? Njengezakhamizi, ingabesiyoba ngcono kunakuqala? Noma siyobuyela emuva? Lona izwe liyobakuliphi izinga emhlabeni?

Lena imibuzo ebuzwa iThimba le-Dinakeng Scenario, umbuthanowabahlukahlukene baseNingizimu Afrika abangama-35, abahlanganakane ngemihlangano yokucobelelana ukubeka izindlela eziyisaempumelelweni ekusaseni lethu.

U-Dinokeng yigama leSepedi elisho “indawo yemifula”. I-Dinokengisendaweni ehehayo enhle ekhoneni lenyakatho-nempumalangaye-Gauteng. Iyindawo lapho iThimba le-Dinokeng Scenario lahlanganakhona emhlanganweni wokucobelelana owathatha izinsuku ezintathuphakathi kukaNcwaba (Agasti) noLwezi (Novemba) wezi-2008 ukudingidangokwamanje nokwedlula kweNingizimu Afrika, kanye nezimoezinokwenzeka ngekusasa. Ithimba lahlangana okwesine, ngoNhlolanja(Febhuwari) wezi-2009 eGoli, lapho izimo ezinqala zabukisiswa khonangesikhulu isizotha.

U-Dinokeng yigama futhi eliqoqa lomoya wozwano lwezinkulumozeThimba: ukuhambisana kwemibono kubantu baseNingizimu Afrikaabehlukene yokwakha ikusasa elomqondomunye.

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Inhloso ye-Dinokeng wuku “sungula isikhala nolimiolukhululekile, okungabukelwa kulonolwezinkulumo zokuhlanganisangokucatshangisisiwe ngabantu baseNingizimu Afrika, mayelananokunokwenzeka ngekusasa lezwe, kanyenamathuba, ubungozi nokuzikhethelaekusaseni lanamuhla.”

Yisikhala bonke abase Ningizimu Afrika okumele basigcwalise. Bonkeabase Ningizimu Afrika – kungabi nguhulumeni kuphela noma labo abasemaYunivesithi noma bamaphephandaba – kumele babandakanyweezimpikiswaneni ezimayelana nekusasa lethu. Noma ngabe abantubayaphikisana ne-Dinokeng Scenarios, leli yithuba lokubeka izimvonezifiso zabo mayelana nekusasa, nokuzikhethela mayelana nokuthiyikuphi abangaba nesandla kukho ukwakha ikusasa.

Ithimba lakhiwe Abantu baseNingizimu Afrika abavela ezinhlanganwenizezepolitiki ezahlukahlukene, kuhulumeni, emphakathini wezakhamizi,embuthanweni wezenkolo, kwabezemfundo ephakeme, kubasakazi,ezinyonyaneni zamabhizinisi nokuhwebelana. Lahlanganiswa wumbuthanowabahlanganisi, labo bonke osaziwayo abayizakhamizi.

Okungo Dkt Mamphela Ramphele, ongusihlalo weqoqo labasunguli,uMbhishobhu omkhulu Njongonkulu Ndungane, uMnu Bob Head, Nkz Graça Machel, Dkt Vincent Mphai noMnu Rick Menell.

Ukusebenza kwe-Dinokeng kuxhaswe ngu-Old Mutual no-Nedbank.Bakholelwa ekutheni isikhathi sasifanele sokuthi bakhe isikhalasempikiswano enempilo mayelana nekusasa lethu. Nakuba-ke,abaxhasi bengalawulanga ngisho uhlelo lomhlangano wokucobelelana,noma umphela wokuphela kwawo. Lokho kungokweThimba le-Scenariouqobo lwalo.

Ithimba liyiqoqo labantu baseNingizimu Afrika abahlukahlukene kakhuluabanemibono eyahlukahlukene kakhulu mayelana nezwe. Nakubabengavumelani ngakho konke kunesinamathelisi esibukhali esihlanganisaiqembu ndawonye: ukuzinikela emithethweni yoMthethosisekelo, ukuqondaumunyu wezwe nobunzima befa, kanye nokukhathazeka okusenhliziywenimayelana nokuthi bangakwazi kanjani, njengezakhamizi, ukuba nesandlaekusaseni elihle le Ningizimu Afrika.

I S E THULO / I YAQHUTSHWA

Zonke izicaphuno ezigqanyisiwe zivela kumalunga eThimba le-Dinokeng Scenario.

“Thina singabase Ningizimu Afrikasiyakwazi ukubona ukuthi yini izweelingakwazi ukukwenza, uma kuphelasikwazi ukucinga ekujuleni kwethu ukuzesithole izisombululo zokwenza njalo.”

“Sisezimpambanweni zomgwaqo, kodwaokungalungile eNingizimu Afrikakungalungiseka. INingizimu Afrika yizweelinamathuba amaningi.”

“Izakhamizi zidinga ukuzibambela futhizizibuze zona: Yikuphi esikwenzayonjengezakhamizi ukuba yizithunywazoguquko? Yikuphi esikwenzayo ukwakhaikusasa lelo esiliphuphile ekuzalwenikwentando yethu yeningi?”


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Umyalezo ovela eThimbeni le-Dinokeng Scenari kubantubaseNingizimu Afrika yilo: INingizimu Afrika njengamanje imiezimpambanweni zomgwaqo. Sesithathe amagxathu amakhulu

kusuka ngowe-1994. Kodwa futhi senze amaphutha amaningi;amaphutha angaba yingozi enkulu ngekusasa lethu uma singawalungisi.

Uma thina, njenge zakhamizi zase Ningizimu Afrika, singahlanganyelingokuzimisela nohulumeni owazi kakhulu futhinosebenzayo ukubeka izwe emzileniwokuvuseleleka, singabhekananokwahlukana nokubuna. Yonke imivuzoyethu kusuka ngowe-1994 ingabasebungozini. Singadala umonakaloohlelweni lwentando yeningi umasingabhekani ngempumelelo nezinselelozethu zempilo eziphuthumayo.

Uhulumeni wethu wentando yeningiusezuze ukuthuthuka okubalulekile kwezwe.Kodwa futhi ube ntekenteke kwezinyeizindawo ezinobungozi, ezifananezemfundo kanye nezempilo.Ukunikezelwa kwemisebenzikubantu beyingakabiyimpumelelo noma ibonakale

kuzakhamizi njengoba kufanele. Eminyakeni emibalwa eyedlule, sibonileukuthi izakhamizi bezihlale zehluleka ukuba izwi lazo lizwakale kanyenokuthi izikhalazo zazo zibhekelelwe. Kwesinye isikhathi abantu bakhethaukubhikisha okunodlame, ngoba bebona ukuthi labo abakuhulumeniabafanelwe ukubalethela izidingo zomphakathi – ezifana nemigwaqoengcono, imfundo, kanye nezempilo – kaba balaleli.

Ngokwezi zathu eziningi, uhulumeni wethu untekenteke ezindaweniezithile ezinobungozi. Kusobala ukuthi uhulumeni akanawo amandlawokuphendula ezinkingeni zethu eyedwa. Kodwa neminye imikhakhayomphakathi ayigxilanga ngokwenele ekwenzeni ngcono izwe jikelele.Udinga ukulekelelwa kanye nokubambisana nezinhlaka zonke kanyenazo zonke izakhamizi ukulungisa okungakalungi ezweni.

Umyalezo obaluleke kakhulu ovela ekwenzeni kwe-Dinokeng,ngakho-ke, yilo: Singabhekana nezinselelo zethu ezinzimakuphela uma izakhamizi nabaholi bezinhlaka zonkezomphakathi zingasebenzisana nohulumeni ukuthuthukisaukulethwa kwezidingo. Njenge zakhamizi, sidinga futhiukugcizelela ekutheni onke amazinga kahulumeni, kusukakuhulumeni omkhulu kuya kowezindawo, baphendule kithingendlela abasebenza ngayo.

UMYA L EZO WE -D INOKENG

Ithimba le-Dinokeng likholelwa ekutheni inhlwayelo yekusasa lethulikuyizolo nemanje lethu, ngakho ababambi qhaza baqalisa izingxoxozabo ngokucubungulisisa ukuthi izwe likanjani namuhla: Imiphumela

yalo, izingqinamba zalo, ukuphumelela nokwehluleka kwalo, kanyenomthwalo elisawuthwele ngemuva lalo elahlukane phakathinokungalingani.

Ikusasa leNingizimu Afrika futhi lihlanganisiwe nezimo ezisemhlabeniwonke kanye nezwe kazi. Ubunzima bomnotho womhlaba wonke usuveleunomthelela kuNingizimu Afrika futhi uyodala ubuhlungu obuqhubekayoemnothweni wethu nakubantu bethu. Ikusasa lethu futhi libophelwe kulelole-Afrika yonke. Isibonelo, sibonile ukungena kwabayikhulu nezinkulungwanezabafuduki abangekho emthethweni abavela emazweni ahluphekayo,singabala i-Zimbabwe, lapho kufe kokubili uhulumeni nezomnotho.

Sidinga futhi ukubhekisisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, nomthelelaesiyoba nawo emkhiqizweni wezolimo kanye nokuphepha kokudla.

INingizimu Afrika ayisona isiqhingi. Angeke senza ngendlela esithandangayo ngenqubomgomo yethu. Uma sifuna ukuba nekusasaeliyimpumelelo, sidinga ukuqaphela ukuthi ukunotha kwezwekazilase-Afrika kanye nowomhlaba wonke usiphazamisa kanjani.

IMPAHLA YETHUEminyakeni eyi-15 ukusuka ngonyaka wokuqala wokhetho lwethulwentando yeningi, izwe selithathe amagxathu amaningi abalulekile.Okukodwa kwethu okukhulu kwesikuzuzile wukuthi manje sihlalangaphansi kwentando yeningi esebenza ngomthetho sisekelo.UMthethosisekelo wethu waziwa umhlaba wonke futhu uyahlonishwa.Uvikela amalungelo omuntu ngayedwana, kanye nalabo abangalutho,futhi uqinisekisa ukubusa kwentando yeningi ngeningi.

Ngezinye izikhathi, Inkantolo yoMthethosisekelo isivikele abantungabodwana namalungelo obuqotho ebusweni bokucindezelwawukwaziwa. Kanje ngokuthi, isichaze isigwebo sentambo njengokuthikasihambelani nomthethosisekelo kuthathelwa phezu “kwelungelolokuphila” isigatshana eMqulwini wamaLungelo. Lokhu kungaphezukweqiniso lokuthi, ngenxa yokunyuka kwezinga lobugebengu, iningilabantu lingafisa ukusivusa.

Okubalulekile, uMthethosisekelo uphinde unikezele nangamalungelookuthuthukiswa komnotho womphakathi. INkantolo yoMthethosisekeloungakwazi, futhi ukwazile, ukutshela uhulumeni ukuthi athuthukiseukunikezelwa kwezindlu kanye nokuthola ukunakekelwa ngokwezempilo.


IN ING IZ IMU AF R I KA NAMUHLA

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Intando yeningi yethu futhi isekelwe nayizikhungo ezizimele,nezinamandla kubalwa nabokusakaza kanye nezinye izingxenyezophiko lwezobulungiswa. Lezi zinhlaka zingakwazi, futhi zenze, ukudlalaindawo yokuba ngabaqaphi futhi ziqinisekise ukuthi uhulumeniakaxhaphazi amandla anawo.

Senze futhi ebalulekile inzuzo kwezomnotho. Kusuka ekufikenikwentando yeningi, umnotho wethu ukhule kancane kancane. Lokhukukhula, nakuba-ke, kubuye kwahamba kancane ngenxa yomthelelawesikhathi sobungozi bomnotho womhlaba wonke.

Siphinde futhi sanciphisa kangcono izikweletu zomhlaba. Ekugcinenikwesikhathi sobandlululo, izikweletu zethu zinyuke zaba cishe wuhhafuweSamba soMkhiqizo waseKhaya (i-GDP) – ngamanye amazwi, ingxenyeeyodwa yawo wonke umcebo wezwe. Lokhu kusho ukuthi iNingizimuAfrika kumele isebenzise okuthi makulingane nobuningi ekukhokheleniizinzalo ezikweletini, njengoba yenzile ezinhlelweni zomphakathi ezibalulekileezifana nezemfundo noma ezezindlu. Ngokunciphisa isamba semali esifunaukusiboleka, sesinciphisile izikweletu zethu sezizonke zaba kuma-23%we-GDP, kanti nenzalo esiyikhokhayo ngonyaka iphansi kakhulu.

Lokhu kuphinde kwenza uhulumeni wanciphisa kancane kancane izintela,okusizile ekukhuthaza ukwanda. Umnotho ususungule imisebenziemisha yenethi ebalelwa ku-3.5 wezigidi kusuka ngowe-1995 kantinokungasebenzi kwabantu kwehlile, ngokwencazelo esemthethweni,kusuka ema-31% ngowezi-2003 kwaya ema-23% ngowezi-2008.

Ukwehla kwezikweletu zethu kuphinde kwenza uhulumeni ekutheni andisengokulandelana ukusetshenziswa ngokomphakathi kwezemfundo,ezokunakekelwa ngokwezempilo, emalini yabangenani, kwezezindlu,kanye nasezinhlelweni zezobulungiswa kwezobugebengu.

IN ING IZ IMU AFR I KA NAMUHLA / I YAQHUTSHWA

Ezemfundo namhlanje zidla ingxenye enkulu kusabelomali sikahulumeni,ngaphezu kwama-20% . Ukwamukelwa kwezingane ezikoleni zamazingaaphansi njengamanje sekucishe kufane mhlabawonke, futhi nenani labantuabasebancane abaphumelelayo kumatikuletsheni lukhuphuke lusukaema-58% ngowe-1994 laba sema-63% ngowezi-2008. Kanti ngezikhathizobandlululo, ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kwezemfundo kwakungalinganikakhulu ngokwezinhlanga ezahlukene, namhlanje ukusetshenziswakwezimali kuyalingana kubona bonke abase Ningizimu Afrika.

Ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kwezempilo kungokwesibili okukhulukusabelomali sethu. Ngonyaka owedlule, bekulinganiselwa ku-R80wezigidigidi (bhiliyoni) sekukonke. Imitholampilo yokunakekela ngokwezempiloyasemazingeni aphansi yakhiwe ezweni lonke. Imalaria yehlile ngenxayemizamo eqinile yokuqeda omiyane ezindaweni lapho imalaria ibiphezulukuyo, futhi nokugonywa kwezingane manje kusondele ema-90%.

Ezinye izinzuzo zokwenhlalo kube wukulethwa kwezidingo zamanziahlanzekile emakhaya angaphezulu kwangamamiliyoni amahlanu,ukwanda kokufakelwa ugesi, imigwaqo engcono, kanye nokunikezelwakwemali yabangenabani kubantu abangamamiliyoni ayi-13.

IMISEBENZI ESIBEKELWE YONA YETHUSingaba nokuziqhenya ngalemivuzo, kodwa izwe lethu lisabhekenenezinselelo ezinkulu. Ikakhulu, nangaphezu kwemali esetshenziswekwezemfundo nakwezempilo, uhulumeni wehlulekile ukuletha ukufundanokunakekelwa kwezempilo okusezingeni.

Kwezemfundo, izingane zethu zibalwa nezisezingeni eliphansikwezezibalo nasezivivinyweni zokwazi ukufunda nokuloba umaziqhathaniswa nezingane eziningi zakwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba.“Singabokugcina,” omunye weThimba le-Scenario washo.

IIzinga lokuphumelela kukamatikuletsheni wethu likhulile kodwaabangama-20% kuphela abenze umatikuletsheni bathola ukuphumelelaokubenza bakwazi ukuya eyunivesithi. Izingqalasizinda kwezinye zezikole


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zethu kazizinhle: ezingama-79% kazinayo imitapo yolwazi, ezingama-60%kazinawo amagumbi ezesayenzi, futhi ezingama-68% kazinamakhompyutha.Othisha bakunqabile ukusingathwa kwendlela yokusebenza, ngakhokakulula ukuthola ukuthi ingabe banikezela ngemfundo eseqophelweniyini ezinganeni.

Ngokunjalo kwezempilo, ngale kwemali esetshenzisiwe, izinkomba zethuziyethusa. Sisezingeni lesine kwaphezulu lokutheleleka nge-HIV/Aidsne-TB emhlabeni. Kakhulu ngenxa yobhubhane lwe-HIV/Aids, ubudebempilo eNingizimu Afrika sekwehle kusuku eminyakeni engama-63ngowe-1990 kwaba kwengama-51 ngowezi-2006. Kunanezinkingaezinkulu kabi ngeqophelo lokunakekelwa ezibhedlela zethu zomphakathi.Lokhu kuboniswa wukuthi izibalo zokushona kutetwa (abesifazaneabashona beteta) kanye nezibalo zokushona kwabantwana abasandakuzalwa (izingane ezishona kungakafikiisikhathi sokuqala sokuzalwazisemhlabeni) sandile.

“Abantukabakholelwawukuthiimithi iyobasemitholampilo.”

Ubugebengu yinkinga enkulu. INingizimu Afrika inezibalo okuyizonaeziphezulu kakhulu zobugebengu obunendluzula emhlabeni, kantinamaphoyisa nezinkantolo kubonakala kungakwazi ukubhekananomthwalo womsebenzi onzima wawo. Ngokwanda, labo abakhonayokabasenakho ukulindela emaphoyiseni ukuba abavikele. Kunalokhobaqasha izinkampani zonogada ezizimele. Imiphakathi entulayo,engakwazi ukukhona onogada abazimele, bagcina beshiya phansiukukholelwa emaphoyiseni bese bezibambela umthetho ngezandla zabo.

IN ING IZ IMU AFR I KA NAMUHLA / I YAQHUTSHWA

Kwezinye zezingqinamba zethu wukuntuleka kwemisebenzinobubha. Lokhu kokubili kuhlobene kakhulu: labo abangasebenzibangahle babe ngabahlupheka kakhulu kwabahluphekayo. Ukungasebenzifuthi kuhlobene nokungabikho kwemfundo namakhono. Umuntu wazewangaba namakhono enele noma wangaba nomsebenzi awufundele,lokho kwehlisa amathuba akhe okuthola umsebenzi ongcono. Izibalozalabo abangasebenzi abaneziqu zaseyunivesithi zi-3% kuphela, kuthilabo abanomatikuletsheni kubalelwa ema-28%, kodwa kulabo abangenawoumatikuletsheni kungaphezulu kwama-60%. Ngaphezu kukahhafuwabantu abaphakathi kweminyaka engama-20 nenama-24 kabasebenzi.

“Intsha ishiywa ngaphandle. Emalokishiniizinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi nobubhaentsheni yethu liyashaqisa.”

Zonke lezi zici zihlanganisiwe ukukhipha ukungalingani nobubha obukhuluemphakathini wethu. Nakuba imali yabangenabani yenze umehlukoezimpilweni zabantu, imizi ebalelwa ema-40% asathathwa njengantulayo.Ukungalingani kwandile phakathi kwabantu abamnyama, kantiukungalingani phakathi kwamaqoqo ehlukene ezinhlanga selokhuifana njengoba yayinjalo ngaphansi kobandlululo.


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IN ING IZ IMU AF R I KA EZ IMPAMBANWEN I ZOMGWAQO

“Ikusasa kalikaze linikezelwe. Liyakhiwa.”

Uma singazilungisi izingqinamba ezisimpintshayo zezemfundonezokunakekelwa ngokwezempilo okufayo, zamazinga obungebenuobuphezulu obungemukelekile, zokungabikho kwemisebenzi nobubha,siyoqaqa ukuphumelela esikwenzile kusuka ngowe-1994.

Emsukeni wezinkinga zethu ukwehluleka kobuholi nokungakwaziukuphendula. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi uhulumeni ube nokubongaabalandeli babo bezepolitiki ngemisebenzi emisebenzini yomphakathi,kunokuqasha abantu abakwaziyo ukwenza umsebenzi. Umthethosisekelo

Ithimba le-Dinokeng Scenario likholelwa ekutheni namuhla iNingizimuAfrika isezimpambanweni zomgwaqo.


wethu uqinisekisa izakhamizi ngemisebenzi yomphakathi engenabumfihlo,kodwa lesi siqiniseko kasigcinwa.

Sibonile futhi abaholi bezamabhizinisi, bezenkolo, bezemisebenzi kanyenabomphakathi begxila kakhulu kulokho okufunwa yibona kunalokhookufunwa yisizwe sonkana.

Abaholi abavela ezinhlakeni zonke badinga ukwamukela imisebenziabayibekelwe yezinkinga zethu kanye nokuzisombulula. Okufanayokuliqiniso kubona bonke abayizakhamizi.

“Akumele kube khona ukuxolelwa kobuholi obungenamiphumela.”

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IN ING IZ IMU AFR I KA EZ IMPAMBANWENI ZOMGWAQO / I YAQHUTSHWA

Ngaphambi kowe-1994, ukuzimisela kwezakhamizi kwakumandlaeNingizimu Afrika. Namuhla izakhamuzi zigxile kakhulu futhi kuyandaukulindela kuhulumeni ukuba anikezele ngakho konke. Lokhu kuyinkinga.

Iqophelo labaholi bethu kanye nendima edlalwayizakhamuzi ekwakheni kabusha izwe lethu ikhonaokuzokhombisa ukuthi ingabe siyazisombulula yini izinkingazethu ngaphambi kokuthi zibe “ngamabhomu”.

“Akumele kube khona ukwenzelela siciciyelengokufihla njengabaholi.”

Bamba iqhaza

Ukungakwaziukusebenza

Izwe elisebenzisana nabanye nelikwaziyo.Izakhamizi ezibamba iqhaza nezinyakazayo.

Izwe elinabangeneleli nelilawula ngokweqile.Izakhamizi ezibheke lele ukwenzelwa

nezenza okushiwoyo.

Elisebenzayo

2020

2020

HAMBA NGOKWEHLUKANA

HAMBELA EMUVA

MASIHAMBISANE

2020

UMUMO WEZWE

UKUBUKEKA KOMPHAKATHI

2009

Izwe elinenkohlakalonelingakwazi ukusebenza.Izakhamizi ezingathembi muntu nezizi vikela zona.

Ngazihlanganisi


Isithombe-simo kazizona izibikezelo.Zichaza umzila wekusasa ongathathwa.Zonke lezi zigameko ezicatshangwayiThimba le-Dinokeng zingenzeka.Kunokwenzeka futhi ukuthi ikusasa libeyingxubevange yazo zontathu lezi zigamekoezichzwe ngenzansi. Yini eyenzaizithombe-zimo zibe ngezisebenzisekayowukuthi zisinika ithuba lokuzahlukanisanezilahlekiso nezinkambizo zomhlabaobanzi ukuze sibone kangcono ubungozinamathuba esibheke nawo.

Ngalokhu emqondweni, iThimba le-Dinokenglidwebe imigudu emithathu engasiyisaekusaseni. Zonke ziyeme ezintweni ezimbili:okokuqala iqophelo lobuholi kuhulumenikanye nomphakathi usuwonke; okwesibiliyiqophelo lobudlelwano phakathikwezakhamizi nohulumeni. Lobu budlelwano,phakathi kukahulumeni nezwe, buyocacisaukuthi ingabe futhi singalakha kanjaniikusasa eliyimpumelelo leNingizimu Afrika.

I S I THOMBE - S IMO

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I S I T H O M B E - S I M O S O K U - 1

H A M B A N G O K W E H L U K A N A

Kusithombe-simo sokuqala, Hamba Ngokwehlukana,soqhubeka nomgudu ofanayo nalona esikuwe namhlanje.Kuwuku “mculo wezihlalo” noma “ukuguquguqula izihlalo”.

Izinkinga zethu eziyisicindezelayo – ukungabikho kwemisebenzi.Ububha, ukuphepha nokuvikeleka, kanye nokuntuleka kokulethwakwezidingo zezempilo nezemfundo – zibe nzima kunakuqala.Uhulumeni ukhuphula isibonelelo sezakhamizi (social grants)namaholo ezisebenzi zikahulumeni; abemukela le zibonelelomanje BANINGI KAKHULU kunabakhokhi bentela.

Uhulumeni angeke akwazi ukuletha izidingo ngezethembisozakhe zokhetho ngoba uyehluleka ukuqasha abantu abakwazikangcono ukusebenza emisebenzini yomphakathi. Ithembalomphakathi ngezikhungo zomphakathi liyashabalala. Umaizakhamizi ziqala zibhikisha mayelana nokwehluleka kokulethwakwezidingo zokuphila, uhulumeni uphendula kalula njengokubandisela imali yabantulayo.

Lokhu kwehlisa inkinga okwesikhashana, kodwa ngowezi-2012,kuyacaca ukuthi ngenxa yokuqasha ngobungane kuhulumeninamathenda, ukulethwa kwezidingo zempilo kobe kusengakaneli.Ezemfundo zinamaphutha; ukwentuleka kwamakhono kwenzainkinga yokungasebenzi ibe nkulu kunakuqala. Uhlakalwezokunakekelwa ngokwezempilo nalo luyehluleka, ngoba

uhulumeni ulahlekelwa abasebenzi bezokunakekela ngokwezempiloabazinikele ohlakeni lwezempilo emphakathini.

Izakhamizi kazikhohliseki. Abaningi bayazehlukanisa nempiloyasemphakathini. Ngowezi-2017, ukulethwa kwezidingo kakulinganikakhulu ezweni lilonke futhi “izimpi ezicashile” ziqala ukugcwalisa igebeelishiwe nguhulumeni. Laba kungaba amagenge ezigebengu, alethaizidingo zempilo kuphela uma kuzoba nemali ebuyayo, noma amanyeamaqoqo angabacubunguli, angaba ngaphandle kukahulumeni futhiangeke kwakwazeka ukuthi kuthiwe awaphendule.

Ngowezi-2020, “izimeya” ezizibekile, izinhlangano zabamatekisi, nomaamagenge anethonya kwezinye izindawo. Uhulumeni usesebenzise imalieningi ezimalini zabangentulayo, futhi akazange agxile ekuzameniukubambisana nabatshalizimali nabezabasebenzi ukusungula imisebenzi.

Izakhamizi zibhikisha ezweni lonke. Ukungahlaliseki kuyavumbuka,ngoba uhulumeni akakwazi ukuthola izisombululo, kuvele kwehle kubeyimibhikisho. Ekugcineni, umemezela Ngesimo Esiphuthumayo ukumisaimibhikisho. INingizimu Afrika isuka entandweni yeningi ethuthukile iyaezweni labanamandla.


Umyalezo walesi sithombe-simo othi uma siqhubeka ngendlelaebesilokhu senza ngayo, sizohlangabezana nokwahlukanaokunzima nokuwa.

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I S I F INYEZO SES I THOMBE - S IMO SOKU 1 : HAMBE LA NGANXANYE

IZOLO, NAMUHLANAKUSASA KUYEFANA:2009-2011

KUZULAZULWA KUJIKELEZWANGASEMAWENI: 2012 – 2014

IZITHUNZI ZIYALULEKA:2015 – 2017

UKUBUSA KWENDODAEQINILE: 2018 – 2020

• Iqembu elibusayolisaphethe abaningi.

• Inkinga ekhungetheumhlaba wonke iholelaekwehleni kokutshalwakwezimali, ukukhula,nasezinteleni eziqoqwayo.

• Inkinga enqwabelenekuhulumeni,kwezemisebenzinasekwehlulekenikwebhizinisi.

• Uhulumeni wandisaIzinhlelo ZemisebenziYomphakathi ukuzeasungule imisebenzi.

• Izakhamizi kazihlalisekiabese uhulumeni andisaimali yabangenani.

• Ukuqasha ngobunganenenkohlakalo ekuhulumeninakumathenda.

• Ezemidlalo nezokunakekelwakwezempilo kwehlelwa yizinga.

• Ukwahlukana kuhulumeninezakhamizi.

• Uhulumeni wandisa imaliyabangenani nenkokheloyabasebenzi bomphakathi:abamukeli bemali yabangenanimanje bangaphezulukwabakhokhi bentela.

• Iqembu elibusayo liphumelelaokhethweni ngeningi elehlile.

• Ubugebengu buyanda:onogada bezokuphephaabazimele bangaphezulukwamaphoyisa ngoku-3 koku-1.

• Uhlelo lezobulungiswaebugebengwini buyabunganelisi ngenxa yokuqashangobungane nenkohlakalo.

• Izinyonyana zinxenxa uhulumeniukuba andise amaholoangatheni.

• Ukutshalwa kwezimali kunciphakuyaphambili; ukungasebenzikuyanda.

• Ukulethwa kwezidingokakuphumeleli; izindlela ezinyezokulethwa kwazo ziyanda kuthinamandla ezithunzi kuyakubamandla.

• Uqhekeko luyanda;isabelomali sehlisaamabhaluni; ukulethwakwezidingo kuba kubikakhulu.

• Abakhethekile bazikhethelaukuphuma kuthi abantulayonalahlekelwe yisineke.

• Amagenge, omeyaabazibekile nezinhlanganozamatekisi kuphetheezindaweni zangaphakathi.

• “Indoda eqinile” iyaphumelelaokhethweni, imiphumelaeqhudelene.

• Kuvunguza imibhikishoabese uhulumeni ememezelaisimo esiphuthumayo.


Kusithombe-simo sesibili, Hambela Emuva, uhulumeni uthathaisinqumo sokuhola ngendlela inqubo yentuthuko.

Uyangenelela emnothweni abhekane nawo-ngqo, anikeze uxhasolwezezimali Ezinkampanini Eziphethwe Nguhulumeni ezinkulu futhiabheke amaphrojekthi ezingqalasizinda. Futhi wandisa IzinhleloZemisebenzi Yomphakathi ukusungula imisebenzi eminingi yabantuabangenamakhono.

Kodwa akabhekeleli ngokwanele kokwenzekayo ngomnotho womhlaba.Ngowezi-2012, kuyacaca ukuthi abagcini zimali abazimele bebe“valeleke ngaphandle” ngokusetshenziswa kwezimali nguhulumenikanzima kanye nezimo zokungakwazi ukwenza umsebenzi. Kabanaloilukuluku lokutshala imali emnothweni, kukhulisa izintela kubekenamaholo esimeni esimile kubona bonke abasebenzi basemphakathini.Lokhu kwenza abafundele imisebenzi ndawozombili ezinhlakenizomphakathi nezizimele bengajabuli: labo abanamakhono amahlebayashiya ohlakeni lomphakathi, benze inkinga ibe nzima kakhuluyokulethwa kwezidingo. Abatshali zimali bakhathazekile ngenxayokwenyuka kwamazinga entela.

Ngowezi-2017, amanye amaphrojekthi ezimboni lawo uhulumeni atshalekuwo imali wacabanga ukuthi “azobangaphumelelayo” aphenduka abe“ngahlulekayo”. Kawakwazi ukumelana nomhlaba jikelele futhi afakauhulumeni izindleko zemali, kunoku zuza imali. Uhulumeni usebenzisa

I S I T H O M B E - S I M O S E S I - 2

H A M B E L A E M U V A

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imali kakhulu kunaleyo anayo kulama phrojekthi. Ngakho unqumaukwethula imithetho yempahla ayisungule yena, efuna ukuthi izimalizezinhlaka ezizimele zitshalwe kumaphrojekthi athile.

Izibalo zokutshalwa kwezimali kuyehla, ngakho uhulumeni uyaphoqelekaukuba aboleke ezimakethe zangaphandle ngamanani entengo ephezulu.Ekugcineni, ngowezi 2019, uyaphoqeleka ukuthatha imalimbolekoemabhodini ezezimali ahlukahlukene, afana noXhaso LwezimaliZangaphandle. I-IMF ibeka imigomo ethile yobolekomali. Le migomoifaka ukunqamula mawala ekusetshenzisweni kwemali emphakathini,ngakho izimo zokuphila zezakhamizi ziba nzima kakhulu.

Lokhu kuholela ekutheni kube nokungeneliseki okusabalele. Uhulemeniuphoqa akufunayo ngenkani.

Ubungozi kulesi sithombe-simo obokuthi uhulumeni usebenzisangaphezu kwanakho kakhulu kusabelomali sakhe ngokungenelelakakhulu emnothweni. Uyaphoqeleka ukuba aboleke imali. Akakwaziukweboleka ezimakethe zamabhondi angaphandle, lapho esekewaboleka khona phambilini, ngoba ababolekisi angeke baboleka izweimali. Kumele aye ku-IMF. I-IMF ingabolekisa ngemali kuphela ngaphansikwemigomo ethile. Lokhu kusho ukuthi izwe angeke lisaphindelizinqumele ukuthi lizosebenzisa kanjani imali kokwalo okusemqoka.Izakhamizi kazenelisekile, uhulumeni uyahlakazeka, kanti nentandoyeningi yethu ibhekwa kamuva.

HAMBE LA EMUVA / I YAQHUTSHWA

Umyalezo walesi sithombe-simo othi intuthuko eholwanguhulumeni angeke yaphumele uma amandla kahulumenientekanteka futhi uma izinhlaka ezizimele kanye nomphakathibephushelwa eceleni. Uhulumeni angagcina esesebenzisa izimalingaphezu kokufanele futhi abuke muva nentando yeningi yethu.Kuzakhamizi, umyalezo uthi sidinga ukugada ukungenelisekifuthi singalindeli ukuthi uhulumeni asinikeze konke.


I S I F INYEZO SES I THOMBE - S IMO SES I 2 : HAMBE LA EMUVA

UGIJIMISA INTUTHUKO:2009 – 2011

KUXOSHWA IFU ELIMNYAMA:2012 – 2014

UHULUMENI UYAHLEHLA“ABAPHUMELELI”:2015 – 2017

UKUPHENDUKAKWEZIKHATHI:2018 – 2020

• Iqembu elibusayolisaligcinile iningi.

• Inkinga ekhungetheumhlaba isho ukwehlakokutshalwa kwezimaliukukhula nentelaeqoqwayo.

• Uhulumeni uzibophezelaekutshalweni kwezimaliokuqhubekayokumaphrojekthiezingqalasizinda amakhulu.

• Uhulumeni uxhasa umumowokusebenza ngoxhumanoolukhulu nokuqeqeshwa.

• Wandisa IzinhleloZemsebenzi Yomphakathieyandisa imisebenziengadingi makhono.

• Ukulahleka kwemisebenzikuyanda njengoba inkingayomhlaba incinza kakhulu;uhulumeni usabalalisauxhumano kwezenhlalakahlezomphakathi.

• Uhulumeni wandisa inzaloyentela, amise imiholoyabasebenzi bomphakathi.

• Isamithi yeZomnothoyaPhezulu ikhipha umphumelaeKwandiseni naseKutshalweniNgokuvumelana.

• Amalungiselelo okhethoyenzelwa “kwekuntulekakakhulu” ipulatifomu.

• Ukunqoba kweqembuelibusayo kuthathwa njengegunya lezwe ukuzekungenelele izweemnothweni.

• Uhulumeni uqhuba ngejubaneizinhlelo zezingqalasizindaezihamba ibanga elide ukuzekuthuthukiswe intuthuko.

• Uhulumeni uhlangabezananokushoda kwamakhonongenkathi ezama ukuthuthukisaokubalulekile kwe-High-techSOEs – “abaphumeleli”.

• Ukuthuthukiswa kwamakhonongokwemfundo engcononokuqeqeshwa kwezobucikokubekwa phambili.

• Abanye “abaphumeleli”baphenzuka “abangaphumeleli”ngezindleko ezinkulu emaliniyezwe.

• Imithetho yezimpahla ezichaziweiphoqelela ukutshalwa kwezimaliokuzimele kumaphrojekthiamakhulu.

• Imithetho ebekiweyezimpahla iqhelelenenamabhizinisi: izinkontilekazokuxhaswa kwezimalinokungaqashwa kuyandakakhulu.

• Izwe liboleka ngezintelazezindleko eziphezuluukuxhasa ukushoda.

• Ukhetho oluqhutshwa“Ngokukhula nokulokhukusatshalaliswa”amathikithi.

• Izwe lithola imalimbolekoku-IMF ngaphansi kwezimisozokunqamulaukusetshenziswa kwemalinguhulumeni.

• Ukungeneliseki okusabalelenemibhikisho: uhulumeniuyawa.

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Kusithombe-simo sesithathu, Masihambisane, izingqinambazethu zibhekwa ngokubambisana kwezakhamizi, ngokwazikukahulumeni, kanye nobuholi obuqinile kuzona zonke izinhlaka.

Ubuholi obuhle, ukulethwa kwezidingo ngokwazi, kanye nokungenelelakwezakhamizi kuba ngukhiye wokulungisa izinkinga zenhlalo ezinzimakakhulu ezibeka ubungozi bokufa ezweni uma zingabhekwa.

Emuva kokuzabalaza ndawonye kuze kube ngowezi-2011,“ngezinhlekele” ezahlulekile nezivumelwano zokuzama ukuphephisaimisebenzi nokusimamisa umnotho ngokubuka inhlekelele yomnothoemhlabeni wonke, izakhamizi zizithola sezizenzela. Ngokusebenzisananamakomidi ezokunakekelwa ngokwezempilo, namakomidi okulwanobugebengu basemgwaqeni kanye nezinhlangano zabazali, izakhamizizizithola ziphoqelela ngentuthuko yokulethwa kwezidingo zomphakathiezibaluleke kakhulu: ezemfundo, ezempilo kanye nezokuphepha.

Uhulumeni ulalela futhi aqonde ukukhathazeka kwezakhamizi abeseeqala exhumana nazo. Ukhetho lowezi-2014 luyokwenziwangokwethikithi lokuhlanzeka nokwazi ukusebenza kukahulumeni.

Ngowezi-2016, uSomqulu weZakhamizi uyozalwa, kuhlanganisaamakomidi endawo ahlukahlukene ayaluze izwe lonke. Okuqaliswenguhulumeni izehembiso zenhlalo ekuphenduleni kulamandla ngokunikwanguhulumeni. Kusondeza izinyonyana zokuhwebelana namabhizinisiekutheni asize ekuxazululeni inkinga yokungasebenzi, ikakhulukazi

I S I T H O M B E - S I M O S E S I - 3

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entsheni. Kuphinde kuxhumane nenzinhlangano zabazali ukuzamaukuthuthukisa ezemfundo, kuthi amakomidi ezempilo azameukusombulula izinkinga – ezifana nokwebiwa kwemishanguzo –okuthathela phansi ukusebenza kwemitholampilo nezibhedlelazomphakathi.

Uhulumeni uqalisa ukugxila ekuletheni izidingo. Njegoba ezemfundozithuthuka, amazinga amakhono ayathuthuka. Ithemba kubatshalizimaliliyakhula. Ngowezi-2016, lapho umnotho womhlaba uqala ukuphenduka,amabhizinisi, ezemisebenzi, umphakathi osabalele uthwala okumeleukwenze okuningi ubese usebenza nohulumeni ukuletha izidingozemfundo eseqophelweni, ezenpilo kanye nemizamo yokulwanobugebengu esiyidingayo ukuze sithuthuke.

Izakhamizi ziqala ukuzwa ukuthi zibe nempumelelo. Manje seziqalaukunxenxa ukuthi abezepolitiki baphendule. Ngowezi-2020,abasephalamende, izakhamizi, nezinkantolo bayosiza ukuphelekezelaukuya oguqukweni oluyisa ohlelweni lokumeleleka okuhlobene. Lokhukuvulela osopolitiki indlela yokukwazi ukuphendula kubavoti.

Manje, uma abavoti benenkinga nezokunakekelwa kwezempilo, nomakwezemfundo, noma kwezezindlu, noma ngesimo somgwaqo,kwamapaki noma kwemitapo yolwazi ezindaweni zabo, bangaya ngqokwababamele ephalamende ukuze babasize ukulungisa izinkinga. Umaababamele behluleka, bangabavotela ukuba bakhishwe emahhovisi.


Umyalezo walesi sithombe-simo othi kuzomele sonkesizimisele ukubhekana nezingqinamba zethu. Umaizakhamizi zingenelela, zizibambela futhi zithiuhulumeni akaphendule; uma kwakhiwa uhulumeniosebenza kahle nokwazi ukwenza; futhi uma abaholikuzona zonke izinhlaka besukuma ngaphezukwalokho okufunwa yibona; ngakho-ke singakwaziukuholela izwe emzileni ofanele.

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IMINYAKA ETHE BHA:2009 – 2011

IZAKHAMIZI ZIFUNAOKUNINGI:2012 – 2014

IZIVUMELWANOZOKUHLALISANAZIBAKHONA: 2015 – 2017

UKWAKHA ISIZWE:2018 – 2020

• Iqembu elibusayolisagcine iningi.

• Inkinga ekhungetheumhlaba isho ukwehlakokutshalwa kwezimaliukukhula nentelaeqoqwayo.

• Izinkinga zinqwabelanandawonye.

• Ukulethwa kwezidingokuyehla.

• Amakhikhi amaqeqebanaezakhamizi athathaizinyathelo kwezempilo,kwezemfundo,nasebugebengwini.

• Ezonakekelo lwelempilonezinyoyana zabazali ziyandaezweni lonke.

• Uhulumeni wethembisaizinyathelokulaboabangabaphathi abangakwaziukusebenza kanyenabasebenzi bomphakathi.

• Intuthuko kwezokulethwakwezidingo.

• Iqembu elibusayo lenzaamalungiselelo okhethongokuthikitha ngohulumeniowazi ukusebenza.

• Iqembu elibusayo elehleemandleni liyabuyiswaemandleni; lakheukusebenzisana namanyeamaqembu.

• Umnotho uqalisa ukusimamakancane kodwa kakweneleukubhekana nobuphofu obugxilile.

• “Amandla ngokunikwa nguhulumenikwezakhamizi” kuyazalwa.

• Izivumelwano ezifomalizokuhlalisana ziyaqubuka: Zifakaizinhlangano zezepolitiki,ezemisebenzi, ezamabhizinisi,amaqeqeba ezakhamizi.

• Amabhizinisi athwala imisebenzieminingi kwezemfundo,kuzingqalasizinda, ezempilo.

• Izinyonyana zabahwebi ziqalisaokungasiza ekunciphiseniukungaqashwa kwentsha.

• zakhamizi zisebenza nohulumeniukulandelela kwezemfundo,kwezempilo nasebugebengwini.

• Uhulumeni ubhekelelaekulethweni kwezimpahlaezisemqoka emphakathini.

• Amabhizinisi atshala imalikakhulu, ukuqashwakwabantu kuyanda.

• Ithemba labatshali zimalibangaphandle lisimamiswauhulumeni obambisebenenabantu.

• Izakhamizi zinxenxaizimpendulo kosopolitiki;amaqembu aphikisayoaphendule.

• Izakhamizi,abasephalamendenezinkantolo benza uguqukoohlelweni lokuvota ukuzeosopolitiki kube yibonaabaphendulayo kubavoti.

I S I F INYEZO SES I THOMBE - S IMO SES I 3 : HAMBE LA EMUVA


“Isithombe-simo esihle akumele sisiphunyuke.Nginamadodana amane ngidingaukuqinisekiswa ukuthi abazukulu bamibayohlala ezweni abayokwazi ukuhlala futhibaphephe endlini evikelekile, bahambeezikolweni ezikahle, futhi baqhubeke nempilo.”

Ngazo zontathu lezi zithombe-simo, IThimba le-Dinokeng Scenario libekalemibuzo ebalulekile elandelayo kuzona zonke izakhamizi zaseNingizimu Afrika:

Singakwazi kanjani, njebahlali base Ningizimu Afrika,ukulungisa izinkinga zethu eziphuthumayo ngaphambikokuthi zibe ngamabhomu ahlakaza konke esikuzuzile?

Yikuphi umuntu ngayedwa angakwenza – emakhaya,emphakathini nasezindaweni zokusebenza zethu – ukusizaekwakheni ikusasa elihambelana nezethembiso zowe-1994?

Intando yeningi eqinile yeyeme kuhulumeni owazi ukwenza, kodwa futhinasezakhamizini ezizinikele nezinyakazayo ezingasebenza futhi ziceleuhulumeni ukuba alethe izidingo ngokwezethembiso zenkululeko.

Abahlali base Ningizimu Afrika bami ezimpambanweni zomgwaqo.Omunye ngayedwa kithi – zakhamizi, baholi kanye nohulumeni – kumeleakhethe ukuthi siya kanjani phambili. Ngokulandela izinyathelo esifunaukuzithatha, siyolakha ikusasa lethu.

I S I PHE THO

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ABABAMB IQHAZA

Laba bantu abalandelayo banikeze ngokucabanga kwabo okunothando nangesikhathi sabo ekusunguleni lomkhiqizo:

IThimba leSithombe-simo:

Miriam Altman Reuel Khoza Yogan Naidoo Frans Baleni Kallie Kriel Njongonkulu NdunganeAnn Bernstein Antjie Krog Maite Nkoana-MashabaneNkosinathi Biko Graça Machel Thandi NontenjaCheryl Carolus Mary Malete Thami ka PlaatjieAngela Coetzee Vincent Maphai Mamphela RampheleRyan Coetzee Rick Menell Sonja SebotsaPaul Hanratty Daniel Mminele Raenette TaljaardBob Head Namhla Mniki Mathatha TseduHaniff Hoosen Aaron Motsoaledi Sim TshabalalaMoemedi Kepadisa Jay Naidoo Musa Zondi

Qonda: Ukubamba iqhaza eThimbeni leSithombe-simo akusho ukuthi uyavumelana nokuqukethwe wumbiko weSithombe-simo, ogxile emsebenziniweThimba kodwa ikhishwe ngabaSunguli. Inhloso yeZithombe-simo ze-Dinokeng ukuthuthukisa ingxoxo evulelekile nekhululekile, “ukuhambisana”kwemibono eyahlukene mayelana nekusasa leNingizimu Afrika, ngaphakathi nangaphandle kweThimba leSithombe-simo, kunokuvumelananemininingwane yombhalo othile.

Ihhovisi likaMabhalale:

Sarah Babb Adam Kahane Debra MarsdenMatt Bland Itumeleng Mahabane Ishmael MkhabelaPippa Green Alayne Mannion Yvonne Muthien


UKUQAQWA KWEZ I F INYEZO

UKUQAQWA KWEZIFINYEZO Aids IngculaziEPWP Uhlelo Olunwetshiwe Lwemisebenzi YomphakathiGDP Umkhiqizo Ophelele WasekhayaIMF Isikhwama Sezimali Samazwe OmhlabaSOEs Izinkampani eziphethwe wuhulumeniTB Isifo sofuba

IZ INCAZELO• “uMbuso” usho zonke izinhlaka zomphakathi, kubandakanya wonke amazinga neminyango kahulumeni, kanye nezinhlaka ezizimele

ze'zingxenye zombuso' okuhlinzekelwe kuMthethosisekelo.

• “uHulumeni” usho ‘uphiko lokufeza’, kubandakanya imikhakha emithathu kahulumeni kazwelonke, wezifundazwe nowasekhaya, kanye nokuphatha umphakathi.

• “Iqembu elibusayo” kusho iqembu lezombusazwe eliyiningi elakha uhulumeni obusayo.

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• Ukuxhaswa nokwesekelwa okuvela kwabakwa Old Mutual nabakwa Nedbank

• Isakhiwo, ukuhlelwa kokuthayishiwe, ukubukeka kwengaphandle nokulungiswa ngabe Studio 5

• Imifanekiso ngu-Len Sak

www.dinokengscenarios.co.za

UKUBONGA

“Uma ufuna ukuhamba usheshe, hamba wedwa

Uma ufuna ukuya kude, hamba nabanye.”Isisho sesintu

T H E

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