1. ymtu@mis.nsysu.edu.tw Version: 2007 Modify by , 2008/03/13 Modify by , 2008/08/31 Modify by , 2008/11/11 Modify by , 2009/02/16 Modify by , 2009/09/14 Modify by , 2010/03/14 Modify by , 2010/10/02

2. PART 1 3. PART 1 GDP/GNP IS/LM / / () () E T P S 4. PART 1 External Environment Level Business Environment Risk Intelligence BERI S.A. was founded in 1966. Its clients are mostly banks and companies conducting international business. http://www.beri.com/default.asp F.T. Haner founded Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI S.A.) in 1966 and is currently the Chief Executive Officer. He has conducted feasibility studies, negotiated terms, and managed firms in 37 countries around the world. Introduction to Global Strategy Map 5. PART 1 Business Environment Risk Intelligence for Vehicle company B.E.R.I investigated indicators as below: Political trends and policies Social attitudes and conditions Economic outlook and purchasing power in the local currency Market constraints and regulations affecting vehicles Present and possible future obstacles to importing parts. 6. PART 1 External Environment Level: S.T.E.P Social Analysis of social factors that influence people's choices and include the beliefs, values and attitudes of society. Technological Analysis of the impact of new technologies - the Internet, EDI, mobile phones, and the increasing advances in computing. Economic Analysis of exchange rates, inflation levels, income growth, debt & saving levels Political Analysis of Legislations, Regulations and Government policies 7. PART 1 8. PART 1 (Weber) (Taylor) (Fayol) (Gantt) (Mayo) (McGregor) (Likert) (Barnard) (Peter M. Senge) X Y 9. PART 1 (Weber) (Taylor) (Fayol) (Gantt) (Mayo) (McGregor) (Likert) (Barnard) (Peter M. Senge) X Y 10. PART 1 (Bureaucracy) (Scientific Management) (General Administration) (Max Weber) (Frederick W. Taylor) (Henery Fayol) () () (Job design) (Work selection and training) (worker motivation) (separation of planning from performance) 1. () 2. 3. ( ) 4. (14 Principles of Management) (scalar chain) 11. PART 1 12. PART 1 () () () ()( ) 13. PART 1 Value Chain SWOT PIMS GAP 14. PART 1 Product Mix () Marketing Mix Promotion Mix S W O T = 15. PART 1 OR OR OR PERT, CPM AHP 16. PART 1 Data Base DCG Data Base Model Base IS IS IS IS SIS EIS ES DSS EUS OA MIS ISDN 199019X119X219X3 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 E T P S 17. PART 1 18. PART 1 ( 19. PART 1 (Detail Complexity) (Mechanic) (Systematic) 20. PART 1 21. PART 1 (,,,) 22. PART 1 (Dynamic Complexity) Systemic () (Delay) 23. PART 1 (Dynamic Complexity) 24. PART 1 () () 100 100101 5 25. PART 1 26. PART 1 27. PART 1 28. PART 1 (counterintuitive) () () 29. PART 1 30. PART 1 31. PART 1 (Environment) (Interface) (Components) (Information) (Materials) 32. PART 1 (Environment) (Interface) (Components) (Information) (Materials) 33. PART 1 34. PART 1 () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () + - + + -- - + - + - - + - + 35. PART 1 36. PART 1 A 37. PART 1 systems Archetype system Dynamics 5. systems Thinking 1. (Personal Mastery) 2. (Improving Mental Models) 3. (Building Shared Vision) 4. (Team Learning) 38. PART 1 39. PART 1 40. PART 1 41. PART 1 I Order Rate DI AT 42. PART 1 1. Loop 2. Flow Wire 3. Level Rate 1. L I.K=I.J +DT * OrderRate.JK 1.1 N I = 1000 I : Inventory () OrderRate : Order Rate (/) 2 R ORD.KL=(DI - I.K) / AT OrderRate : Order Rate (/) DI : Desire Inventory() I : Inventory () AT : Adjust Time() (, AT) 3 C DI = 6000 DI : Desire Inventory() 4 C AT = 5 AT : Adjust Time() + - 1. Loop I Order Rate DI AT 2. Flow Wire 3. Level Rate 08:22 U 2008 ~313 Untitled Page 1 1.00 9.75 18.50 27.25 36.00 Months 1: 1: 1: 1000 3500 6000 1: I 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 3 4 43. PART 1 1. Loop + - Delay 2 . Flow Wire I GO ORD PR AT DI DO () 1. L I.K=I.J + DT * PR.JK 1.1 N I = 1000 I : Inventory () PR : Purchase Receive (/) 2 R PR.KL = GO.K / DO PR : Purchase Receive (/) GO: (/) DO: () 3 C DO = 10 DO: () 4 L GO.K = GO.J + (ORD PR.JK) 4.1 N GO = 10000 GO: (/) ORD : Order Rate (/) PR : Purchase Receive (/) 5 R ORD.KL=(DI - I.K) / AT ORD : Order Rate (/) DI : Desire Inventory() I : Inventory () AT : Adjust Time() (, AT) 6 C DI = 6000 DI : Desire Inventory() 7 C AT = 5 AT : Adjust Time() 09:27 U 2008 ~313 Untitled Page 1 1.00 30.75 60.50 90.25 120.00 Months 1: 1: 1: 1000 5500 10000 1: I 1 1 1 1 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 44. PART 1 11:24 AM 2001~612 1.00 8.25 15.50 22.75 30.00 Months 1: 1: 1: 1000.00 3500.00 6000.00 1: I 1 1 1 1 Graph 1 (Untitled) 45. PART 1 () 46. PART 1 : I(t) = I(t - dt) + (Order_Rate) * dt INIT I = 1000 INFLOWS: Order_Rate = (DI-I)/AT AT = 5 DI = 6000 47. PART 1 DYNAMO 1. L I.K=I.J +DT*ORD.JK 1.1 N I=1000 I : Inventory () ORD:Order Rate (/) 2 R ORD.KL=(DI-I.K)/AT ORD:Order Rate (/) DI:Desire Inventory() I : Inventory () AT:Adjust Time() (,AT) 3 C DI=6000 DI:Desire Inventory() 4 C AT=5 AT:Adjust Time() 48. PART 1 +delay GO Order Rate I RR DO AT DI 49. PART 1 +delay: 07:38 AM 2001~103 1.00 25.75 50.50 75.25 100.00 Weeks 1: 1: 1: 2: 2: 2: 0.00 7500.00 15000.00 1: DI 2: I 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Graph 1: p1 (Untitled) 50. PART 1 +delay: GO(t) = GO(t - dt) + (Order_Rate - RR) * dt INIT GO = 10000 INFLOWS: Order_Rate = (DI-I)/AT OUTFLOWS: RR = GO/DO I(t) = I(t - dt) + (RR) * dt INIT I = 1000 INFLOWS: RR = GO/DO AT = 5 DI = 6000 DO = 10 51. PART 1 Digital Computer Simulation Technology Technology Foundation System Dynamics General System Theory Cybernetics System Theory Decision Theory Theory Foundation 52. PART 1 L = R = A 11(test function) 22 B C F D EA + - + + + + + - Base run Validation Verification 53. PART 1 data data Mental Model No Yes 54. PART 1 : = 55. PART 1 : , : 56. PART 1 Loop + 57. PART 1 rethinking reengineering restructing (resystem) () () () 58. PART 1 59. PART 1 BSC(4) () Strategy MapKPI PA () D C .. BCG SWOT STEP.. (5) Scenario () 60. PART 1 ABC $25000 $120000 $75000 $35000 $480000 61. PART 1 Michael Porter 62. PART 1 63. PART 1 1. 1.1 1.2 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. (preference) 1. (homogeneous) 2. (diffused) 3. (clustered) ( ) 64. PART 1 MIS DBMS MBMS DGMS 65. PART 1 66. PART 1 / 67. PART 1 R&D () 68. PART 1 Friar & Horwitch(1986) Maidique & Frenola(1988) 69. PART 1 70. PART 1 71. PART 1 (81)- 72. PART 1 Capacity Model () PK CLIP () MIN Time () CLIP(P,Q,R,S) if R>= S then CLIP = P if R < S then CLIP = Q 73. PART 1 () - + - - - + + + - + + - - - - - + + 74. PART 1 Capacity Model 75. PART 1 Capacity Model 1 23 45 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1617 18 76. PART 1 Capacity Model DYNAMO() 1. L Inventory(t) = Inventory(t - dt) + (Produce - Ship) * dt 1.1 N INIT Inventory = 50 Inventory:() Produce:(/) Ship:(/) 2 R Produce = Productivity_line*LineProductivity Produce:(/) Productivity_line:() LineProductivity:(//) 3 R Ship = Shipping Ship: :(/) Shipping: :(/) 4 L Order(t) = Order(t - dt) + (Slaes - Ship2) * dt 4.1 N INIT Order = 100 Order:() Slaes:(/) Ship2:(/) 5 R Slaes = SalesMarket*ShipDelayImpact Slaes:(/) SalesMarket:(/) ShipDelayImpact:() 1 23 45 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1617 18 77. PART 1 Capacity Model DYNAMO() 6 R Ship2 = Ship Ship2:(/) Ship:(/) 7 L Productivity_line(t) = Productivity_line(t - dt) + (InvestRcv - Deprecition) * dt 7.1 N INIT Productivity_line = 8 Productivity_line:() InvestRcv:(/) Deprecition:(/) 8 R InvestRcv = DELAY(InvestDecision/InvestAdjTime,6,0) InvestRcv:(/) InvestDecision:() InvestAdjTime:() 9 R Deprecition = Productivity_line/DeprecitionRate Deprecition:(/) Productivity_line:() DeprecitionRate:-() 10 A DeprecitionRate = 9 DeprecitionRate:-() 11 A InvestAdjTime = 1 InvestAdjTime:() 78. PART 1 Capacity Model DYNAMO() 12 A InvestDecision = IF(TargetProductivityExpend>Productivity_line ) then TargetProductivityExpend-Productivity_line +1 else 1 InvestDecision:() TargetProductivityExpend:() Productivity_line:() 13 A LineProductivity = 10 LineProductivity:(//) 14 A ShipDelayTime = Order/Ship ShipDelayTime :() Order:() Ship:(/) 15 A Shipping = MIN(Inventory,Order) Shipping: :(/) Order:() Inventory:() 16 A TargetProductivityExpend = (Order-Inventory)/LineProductivity TargetProductivityExpend:() Order:() Inventory:() LineProductivity:(//) 79. PART 1 Capacity Model DYNAMO() 17 A SalesMarket = GRAPH(time) (1.00, 100), (12.9, 150), (24.8, 225), (36.7, 340), (48.6, 470), (60.5, 595), (72.4, 690), (84.3, 795), (96.2, 870), (108, 930), (120, 980) SalesMarket:(/) 18 A ShipDelayImpact = GRAPH(ShipDelayTime) (0.00, 1.00), (0.5, 0.99), (1.00, 0.95), (1.50, 0.7), (2.00, 0.4), (2.50, 0.3), (3.00, 0.25), (3.50, 0.22), (4.00, 0.2) ShipDelayImpact: () 80. PART 1 + - + - + - + + - + + + + + + + - + - + + - + - + + + - + + + + - - + + + - - - - - - + - - - - - - - 81. PART 1 Delay3 SMOOTH() 82. PART 1 Delay3 SMOOTH() 83. PART 1 Single-loop Learning Business Dynamics/John D. Sterman F1-8 P.16 Mental models or Real world StrategyStructure Decision Rules Decisions Information feedback Real World 84. PART 1 Double-Loop Learning Mental models StrategyStructure Decision Rules Decisions Information feedback Real World Real worldVirtual world Real worldVirtual world 85. PART 1 Virtues of Virtual Worlds Business Dynamics/John D. Sterman F1-14 P.34 Mental models StrategyStructure Decision Rules Decisions Real world Implementation failure Game playing Inconsistency Performance is goal Virtual world Perfect implementation Consistent incentives Consistent application of decision rules Learning can be goal Information feedback Real world Implementation failure Game playing Inconsistency Performance is goal Virtual world Perfect implementation Consistent incentives Consistent application of decision rules Learning can be goal Real World IsomorphicHomomorphic Virtual World 86. PART 1 Modeling is Iterative 1. Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection) 2. Dynamic Hypothesis 3. Formulation 4. Testing 5. Policy Formulation & Evaluation Business Dynamics/John D. Sterman F3-1 P.87 87. PART 1 Modeling is embedded in the dynamics of the System 1. Problem Articulation (Boundary Selection) 2. Dynamic Hypothesis 3. Formulation 4. Testing 5. Policy Formulation & Evaluation Information Feedback Mental Models Of Real WorldStrategy, Structure, Decision Rules Decisions (Organizational Experiments) Business Dynamics/John D. Sterman F3-2 P.88 Real World 88. PART 1 Michael E. Porter 1990 Factor Endowments( or ) Demand Conditions() Firm StrategyStructureRivalry( ) Related and Supporting Industries( ) Government() Chance() 89. PART 1 90. PART 1 + + / 91. PART 1 / / 92. PART 1 / / 93. PART 1 / / 94. PART 1 / / 95. PART 1 / / / 96. PART 1 / / / 97. PART 1 / / 98. PART 1 / --- / 99. PART 1 / / 100. PART 1 / 101. PART 1 1 2 3 () 4 5 6 1 () () 1 2 () 3 Delphi 1 () 2 3 4 : 102. PART 1 () 5% +15% 90% 2 Barcode xxx xxx xxx 95% 95% 45 MIR xxx xxx xxx 80% 85% xxx xxx xxx -W,(2006) 103. PART 1 () 5% +15% 90% 2 Barcode xxx xxx xxx 95% 95% 45 MIR xxx xxx xxx 80% 85% xxx xxx xxx -W,(2006) 104. PART 1 - ~J UN ~ A~ -u@~ v + + + + + Uq ]Dq Bu@q -uN + + - + AD + + ]v + + - v + - - - -u@~v + - - - -, (2005) 4.8 105. PART 1 a e b f c g d h St rategyT argetGAP1 i j k l Action n o m KPI1 KPI2 KPI3 GAP2 GAP3 GAP4 106. PART 1 21:11 2005~517 1.00 4.00 7.00 10.00 13.00 Months 1: 1: 1: 2: 2: 2: 3: 3: 3: 4: 4: 4: 0.00 1000000.00 2000000.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1: SalesIncom 2: CSatisfy 3: NetworkQty 4: ServiceQty 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Graph 1 (Untitled) 107. PART 1 - + + + - - + + + - + + + + + - - - - + + + - - - + - - + - 108. PART 1 (2005)(2006) 109. PART 1 AA Epstein & Manzoni, 1998 Schneiderman, 1999 Norreklit, 2000 Ahnn, 2001 Norreklit, 2000 Norreklit, 2000 BSC Malmi, 2001 Schneiderman, 1999 Hudson et al., 2001 Schneiderman, 1999 Ahnn, 2001 Ahnn, 2001 Malina & Selto, 2001 BSC Schneiderman, 1999 Graham, 2001 Atkinson et al., 1997 Atkinson et al., 1997 Atkinson et al., 1997 Norreklit, 2000 (2003) 110. PART 1 Norreklit, 2000 BSC Ahn, 2001 Norreklit, 2000 Hudson et al., 2001 BSC Malina & Selto, 2001 BSC Epstein & Manzoni, 1998 () () Lipe & Salterio, 2001 Malina & Selto, 2001 Hudson et al., 2001 BSC Epstein & Manzoni, 1998 BSC MBO Dinesh & Palmer, 1998 BSC Ahn, 2001 Hudson et al., 2001 Schneiderman, 1999 BSC Ahn, 2001 BSCYX MBO Dinesh & Palmer, 1998 BSC Epstein & Manzoni, 1998 Schneiderman, 1999 (2003) 111. PART 1 01. /. 1994/ 02. Principles of Systems/Jay W. Forrester 03. Industrial Dynamics/Jay W. Forrester 04. World Dynamics/Jay W. Forrester 05. Corporate planning and policy Design/James M. Lyneis 06. Business Dynamics/John D. Sterman 07. Balance Scorecard / Robert Kaplan Nolan Norton 1999 / 08. Strategy Maps / Robert Kaplan Nolan Norton 2000 / 09. - / / 10. (1998) 11. (2001) 12. (2002) 13. (1990) 14. (1991) 15. (1995)-- 16. (1995) 17. (1995) 18. (1996) 19. (1996) 112. PART 1 20. (1996) 21. (1997) 22. (1998) 23. (2000)--T 24. (2000)XX 25. (2001) 26. (2001) 27. &(2002)BCG 28. (2002)--EMBA 29. (2002) 30. (2002) 31. (2002) 32. (2002) 33. (2002) 34. (2002) 35. (2002)ERP 36. (2002) 113. PART 1 37. (2002) 38. (2002)-- 39. (2004)- 40. (2004)IC 41. (2005) 42. (2005)- 43. (2005) 44. (2005)--- 45. (2006)- 46. (2006) (IEMBA) 47. (2006)-W 48. (2007) 49. (2007)- 114. PART 1 50. (2007) 51. (2007) - C 52. (2007) 53. (2007) 54. (2007)---IC 55. (2007)- 56. (2007)- 57. (2007) 58. (2007)- 59. (2008)- 60. (2008) 61. (2008)- 62. (2008)-P 115. PART 1 63. (2008)-A 64. (2008)- 65. (2008)- 66. (2009) 67. (2009)MMSDM 68. (2009) 69. (2009) 70. (2009) 71. (2009) 72. (2009) 73. (2009)-ERP 74. (2010) 116. PART 1 75. (2010)DRAM 76. (2010)- 77. (2010)TW-DRG 78. (2010)- 79. (2010)- 80. (2010) 81. (2010) 117. Q & A 118. PART 1 Event-Oriented view of the world GOALS Situation Problem Decision Results GOALS Decision Environment 119. PART 1 HR $ Money Product Information 120. PART 1 (Customer Analysis) (Company Analysis) (Competitor Analysis) (Segmentation) (Targeting) (Positioning) (Competitiveness Factoring) (Company Capacity Analysis)