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薛 琦台灣證券交易所董事長

行政院經濟建設委員會2009年 11月 24日

庶民經濟為什麼經濟成長的果實感受不到

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大 綱

I. 前言II. 經濟統計資料的解讀：一種資料，

各自表述

III. 亞當‧斯密的智慧VI. 結語

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I. 前 言

我們的經濟是好或不好？

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II.經濟統計資料的解讀一種資料，各自表述

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-10

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0

5

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Economic Growth Rate at 2001Prices (%)

Per Capita NI/Real Growth Rate(%) at 2001 Prices AfterAdjustment of Terms of Trade

Per Capita GNP/Nominal GrowthRate (%)

2000-2008年實質經濟成長率平均為 3.6％。又同期以新台幣 計算之每人 GNP，每人 NI及經貿易條件調整後之每人 NI平 均成長率各為 2.5％， 2.1％及 1.2％。

每人名目 NI （新台幣及美元計價）

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貿易條件變動損益、折舊攤提與國民所得

GNP 貿易條件變動損益

折舊（％ GDP ）

NI

2000 10,220 (5.77) -50 (0.49) 1,127 (11.23) 9,053 (2.95)

2001 10,054 (-2.17) 0 (0) 1,247 (12.64) 8,807 (-2.72)

2002 10,562 (4.64) -89 (0.33) 1,309 (12.72) 9,250 (5.03)

2003 11,011 (3.50) -132 (1.19) 1,370 (13.02) 9,517 (2.89)

2004 11,706 (6.15) -440(3.76) 1,436 (12.98) 9,868 (3.69)

2005 12,092 (4.16) -612(5.06) 1,485 (12.96) 10,017 (1.51)

2006 12,676 (4.80) -851(6.71) 1,536 (12.89) 10,360 (3.42)

2007 13,398 (5.70) -1,077(8.04) 1,632 (12.91) 10,815 (4.39)

2008 13,376 (0.06 ) -1,714(12.79)

1,726 (13.99) 10,161 (-6.05)

資料來源：行政院主計處。

NT＄ billion, (%)

扣除貿易條件變動損益與折舊後，國民所得成長有限。 貿易條件大幅惡化，與折舊占 GDP比例逐年上升是拉大 GNP與NI差 距的主因。

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-2

3

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Industry & Services Industry Manufacturing

製造業薪資變動

％

8

60

100

140

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

進口物價總指數

出口物價總指數

貿易條件

貿 易 條 件 惡 化 2003年以後進口物價大幅上升，出口物價大致不變，造成貿易條 件惡化。

基期： 2001年＝100

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60

70

80

90

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

電腦、電子產品及光學製品 電子零組件

躉售物價基本分類指數基期： 2001年＝100

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40

60

80

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

電子、電機及其設備 資料處理機及其週邊設備與零附件電子零組件 通訊傳播設備

出口物價基本分類指數基期： 2001年＝100

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1. 2004與 08 年實質經濟成長率分別為 6.15% 與 0.06% ，但名目成長率僅各達 5.19%與 -2.33% 。兩者差距係物價下跌（含貿易條件改變）所致。

2. 2004與 2008 製造業國內生產毛額實質成長率分別為9.74%與 -1.00% ，但名目成長率只有 5.3% 與衰退 -10.93% 。

3. 2004Q3與 2009Q2 電力及電子機械器材製造業實質生產毛額（按 2001 年價格計算）分別為新台幣 2,644與2,687 億元；若按當期價格計算僅為新台幣 1,934與1,354 億元。即電子電器業廠商按當年財報計算之產值遠低於經物價調整後之實質產出。

通 貨 緊 縮

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3. 亞當‧斯密的智慧

經濟發展追求的目標 亞當．斯密的智慧 -- 國家財富的本質

An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of

The Wealth of NationsBy Adam Smith 1723-1790

“The annual labour of every nation is the fund which originally supplies it with all the necessaries and conveniences of life which it annually consumes…”

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According to Adam Smith

“Adam Smith’s economy grows to its ‘full complement of riches’ as permitted by its laws and institutions, and there it rests.”

Arthur W. Lewis, 1984

Wages are not high in a stationary country however rich. ‘‘China has been long one of the richest countries in the world. It seems, however, to have been long stationary. Macro Polo, who visited it more than five hundred years ago, describes its cultivation, industry, and populousneess, almost in the same terms …described by travellers in the present times. It had perhaps, even long before his time, acquired that full complements of riches which the nature of its law and institutions permits it to acquire.”

Wages are not high in a stationary country however rich. ‘‘China has been long one of the richest countries in the world. It seems, however, to have been long stationary. Macro Polo, who visited it more than five hundred years ago, describes its cultivation, industry, and populousneess, almost in the same terms …described by travellers in the present times. It had perhaps, even long before his time, acquired that full complements of riches which the nature of its law and institutions permits it to acquire.”

inaina

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According to Adam Smith（ continued）

“Institutions were overwhelmingly important to both the pace and structure of economic development.”

“Favorable impacts of government policies …can be expected only where political institutions limit elite control of assets, land institutions spread a surplus over subsistence widely, and domestic education and skills are well diffused.” Morris and Adelman 1989

The Theory of Moral Sentiments1759

Chapter I. Of Sympathy

How selfish soever may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, expect the pleasure of seeing it.

不管一個人有多麼自私，都有一種很明顯的本性，那就是關心別人的幸福，把別人的快樂當成自己的事，樂於看到它發生，此外別無所求。

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Das Adam Smith Problem

Question raised by German Historical School How to reconcile altruism in Morality laid out vividly

in Moral Sentiments of which the first chapter in on Sympathy, and self interest in Economics which is the core of Wealth of Nations.

道德情操論強調利他主義，尤其該書第一章一開始講的是「論同情」，而「原富」的核心是「自利」，這兩種對人性的描述顯然不一致。

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Das Adam Smith Problem

Chronology of Smith’s teaching and writing career 1723 born 1737 Glasgow, studying Greek, Latin, Mathematics and Morality 1740 Oxford, studying Philosophy 1748 Edinburgh, lecture 1750 Lecture note on Economics 1751 Glasgow, Professor of Logic; 1752 Professor of Morality 1759 Publishing MS 1761 2nd ed. of MS expanding the part on Politics, Economics and Jurisprudence 1763 Lecturing on “Law, Police, Revenue, and Arms.” 1764 Turing in European continent for 2 years and 8 months with Duke Buccleugh and starting to draft WN 19

Smith Problem (continued)

1767 1765.12-66.10 meeting F. Quesnay in Paris 1768 3rd ed. MS, adding “considerations concerning the first formation of languages”1774 More information on taxation in America, 4th ed MS1776 Publication of WN1778 2nd ed. WN 1781 5th ed. MS 1784 3RD ed. WN 1786 adding Introduction and the final edition of WN 1787 Honorable principal of Glasgow U. 1788 intensive revision of MS, adding sec. III, Ch.3

1790 the final 6th ed. of MS 20

Let Smith Answer the Question

• Smith has constantly and interweavingly revised MS and WN.

• “In the last paragraph of the present work, I said, that I should in another discourse endeavour to give an account of the general principles of law and government and …in what concerns police, revenue, and arms, and whatever else is the subject of law. In the Enquiry… I have partly executed this promise; at least so far as concerns police, revenue, and arms.” Advertisement, MS. “在本書（第一版）的最後一段，我說，我會在其他地方對法律、政府的一般原則，或是有關警察、歲入、軍備，或其他有關法律的課題，另做說明。在原富一書中我已經部分做到了這項承諾，至少在有關警察、歲入與軍備的部分。”

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Let Smith Answer the Question

• In Scotland then, moral philosophy covers ethnology, morality, jurisprudence, and politics including political economy.

• “What purpose is…the pursuit of wealth?… what are the advantages which we propose by that

great purpose of human life which we call bettering our condition? To be observed, to be attended to, to be taken notice of with sympathy, complacency, and approbation …”

• 人具有創作的慾望與創新的本能，一個鐘錶匠的故事。• 追求財富的目的為何？所謂改善我們生活是人生的偉大目的，其意義為

何？其實是為了引人注目，受到關切，贏得同情，一種自滿，或獲得認同。

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Let Smith Answer the Question

• “It is the vanity, not the ease, or the pleasure, which interests us. But vanity is always founded upon the belief of our being the object of attention and approbation”.

• “the eye is larger than the belly,… The capacity of his stomach ( the land lord )bears no proportion to the immensity of his desires, and will receive no more than that of the meanest peasant.”

• 吸引著我們，讓我們著迷的其實是一種虛幻，不是身心的舒適與愉悅。空虛常來自我們自認為是眾所矚目或認同的對象。

• 眼睛比肚子大。富人的肚量跟他的慾望相比根本不成比例，而他吃的不會比最寒酸的農人多。

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Let Smith Answer the Question

• “In what constitutes the real happiness of human life, they are in no respect inferiour to those who would seem so much above them. In ease of body and peace of mind, all the different ranks of life are nearly upon a level, and the beggar, who suns himself by the side of the highway, possesses that security which kings are fighting for.”

對於能帶給一個普通人生活樂趣的事物與程度，絕對不會比那些高高在上的人來的遜色。在身體的舒適和心靈平靜上，所有不同階層的人幾乎都在同一水準上。一個在馬路邊曬太陽的乞丐，他所享有的安全卻是國王要費多大的武力才能爭取到的。

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財富 Wealth

窮人之子的寓言 :(在追求名利之後），如今他已走到生命的終點，他的身體受到勞苦與病痛的磨損，心總因為憶起過去的千般傷害與失望，而感到懊惱。註 4 名利不過是瑣碎的小裝飾品，不會強過孩子的百寶箱。

（失業者）受傷的是他的自尊心。坐在包廂看球與到酒吧看球，都是一項理性選擇？人們隨時都在自我欺騙。註 4 ：斯密絕妙的寓言＜窮人之子＞見於 TMS, IV.I.8 [181] 。

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Let Smith Answer the Question

• “When Providence divided the earth among a few lordly masters,…They are led by an invisible hand to make nearly the same distribution of the necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants;”

當上帝將土地分配給幾個地主，…（地主得到佃農耕作收成中最好的部分）佃農分享其餘，這隻冥冥中看不見的手的安排竟然和將土地平均分配給農民得到的結果一樣。

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Let Smith Answer the Question

• On government: “The man of system, …is apt to be very wise in his own conceit, and is often so enamoured with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government.”

國家當權者很容易自認英明，誇大其事，然後沈迷在他自己所規劃的國家發展美境中。

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結 語

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附 錄

ICT產業投資生產關連效果（ 2004）

資訊產品 通信產品 電子零配件 製造業

國內關聯程度

1.62 1.53 1.61 1.86

國產品投入係數

0.37 0.31 0.37 0.47

進口品投入係數

0.47 0.51 0.36 0.18

附加價值率（折舊）

0.14（ 0.03 ） 0.18（ 0.01 ） 0.28（ 0.11 ） 0.25

間接稅(%)

0.45 0.23 0.31 1.81

註：石油煉製品 1999， 2001及 2004數字分別為 1.17,， 1.18及 1.18 ；菸 為 1.26與 1.28與1.31 。 電子零配件業 1999及 2001 各當年資本消耗為 96,147與 219,866 百萬元，占總產值之8.76% 與 17.97% ，占附加價值之 28.73%與 63.19% 。若以 160部門與 162部門分類中之半導體業觀察， 則當年資本消耗分別為 69,837 百萬元與 169,513 百萬元，占總產出的 13.32%與26.34% ，占附 加價值的 38.95%與 83.92% 。 扣除食品、飲料、菸、石油練製品等產業。

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