A Tiger and a LionA New Scenario for the Cross-strait Economy

一 隻 小 虎 與 醒 獅

Chi Schive 薛 琦Chair Professor, Shih-Hsin University, Taipei

April 18, 2008, Nankai University

Contents 大 綱

Prelude 楔 子Growth 成 長

Challenges 窒 礙Opportunities 昇 華Remark 結語

Prelude 楔 子

Herman Kahn (The World Economic

Development, 1979)

Two and half heroes 兩個半英雄

Napoleon, a wakened lion 拿破崙，東方的醒獅

“ If China wakes, the sleeping lion will shake the world.”

“When China awakes, it will move the world.”

GrowthGrowth

Table 1 Economic Growth, Taiwan and China 台灣、中國大陸經濟成長

Taiwan Taiwan 台灣台灣 China China 中國大中國大陸陸

19501950‘‘ ss 8.28.2 ----1960‘1960‘ss 9.79.7 ----1970‘1970‘ss 9.99.9 ----1980‘1980‘ss 8.08.0 9.39.31990‘1990‘ss 6.56.5 10.410.42000-02000-066 3.3.88 10.810.8

單位： %

資料來源： 1.行政院主計處。 2.www.imf.org

Figure 1 GDP, Taiwan and China 台灣、中國大陸 GDP

( 1980-2007 )

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

US$ billion (current prices)

資料來源： http://www.imf.org

Times 倍數

China/Taiwan 中國大陸 / 台灣

Taiwan 台灣

Figure 2 Living Standard, Taiwan and

China 台灣、中國大陸生活水準 （ GDP PPP adjusted 1980-2007 ）

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

US$1,000

資料來源： http://www.imf.org

Times 倍數

China/Taiwan 中國大陸 / 台灣

Taiwan 台灣

Figure 3 Investment and Savings, Taiwan 台灣投資與儲蓄 ( 1981-2007 )

0

10

20

30

40

50

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

％

資料來源：行政院主計處。

Investment 投資 Excess Savings

超額儲蓄

Savings 儲蓄

Figure 4 Investment and Savings, China 中國大陸投資與儲蓄 ( 1980-2004 )

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

％

資料來源：中國統計年鑑， 2005 年。

Savings 儲蓄

Investment 投資

Excess Savings 超額

儲蓄

2004

I n v e s tm e n t a n d E c o n o m ic G r o w th , 1 9 9 0 -9 6

2 2 . 5

4 0 .4 3 8 .3 3 6 . 7

- 3 . 7 - 6 .2 - 6 .2- 1 . 7

8 .08 . 62 .8

8 . 8 7 .7 6 .3

2 2 . 62 7 .4

3 5.02 8 . 03 2 . 1 2 8 . 9

3 4 . 2

1 8 .8

5 .41 . 5

-2 0

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

P h il ip p in e s T h a il a n d M a la y s ia In d o n e s ia S o u t hK o re a

T a iw a n

E c o n o m ic G ro w thF ix e d C a p t ia l F o rm a tio nD o m e st ic Sa v in g sE x c e ss Sa v in g s

%

S o u rc e : IM F , W o r ld E c o n o m i c O u t lo o k : In t e r im A s s e s s m e n t , D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 7 .

Figure 5 Trade Dependence, Taiwan and China 對外貿易依存度

0

50

100

150

1980 1990 1995 2000 2005

％

資料來源：經濟部國貿局。

Commodity, China

中國大陸（商品）

Current Account, Taiwan 台灣（商品及勞務）

Commodity, Taiwan 台灣（商品）

Figure 6 Direct Foreign Investment 外人直接投資

（ Arrived DFI / GDP ）

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1985 1989 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

％

資料來源： 1. 行政院主計處。 2. 中國統計年鑑， 2005 年。

China 中國大陸

Taiwan 台灣

World GDP Share since the First World GDP Share since the First Century Century 西元西元 1 1 世紀以來中國世紀以來中國 GDPGDP 佔全球佔全球 GDPGDP 之之

份額份額Period 西元 China 中國 India 印度 W. Europe 西歐 US 美國 Japan 日本 Worl d 全球

1 25.45 32.02 13.69 0.26 1.14 100.00

1000 22.08 28.06 9.08 0.43 2.65 100.00

1500 24.88 24.36 17.79 0.32 3.10 100.00

1600 28.96 22.40 19.79 0.18 2.90 100.00

1700 22.30 24.44 21.87 0.14 4.14 100.00

1820 32.92 16.04 23.02 1.81 2.99 100.00

1870 17.08 12.14 33.08 8.85 2.29 100.00

1913 8.83 7.47 33.01 18.93 2.62 100.00

1950 4.59 4.16 26.16 27.28 3.02 100.00

1978 4.93 3.30 24.28 21.56 7.62 100.00

1998 10.98 5.07 20.85 21.88 7.70 100.00

2003 15.12 5.54 19.20 20.61 6.60 100.00

:Angus Maddison (2007)資料來源

Unit 單位 :%

ChallengesChallenges

Challenges for Taiwan 窒 礙

Financial Reforms 金融改革Fiscal Reforms 財政改革Labor Market Juvenescence 勞動市場活力化Cross-strait Relations 兩岸關係

Challenges for China 窒 礙

Resource Efficiency 資源使用效率Income Distribution 所得分配Rural and Urban Gap 城鄉差距Appreciation of ZMB 人民幣升值Over savings 儲蓄過多

An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations Adam Smith 1723-1790

“ The annual labour of every nation is the fund which originally supplies it with all the necessaries and conveniences of life which it annually consumes…”

According to Adam Smith

“ Adam Smith’s economy grows to its ‘full complement of riches’ as permitted by its laws and institutions, and there it rests.” Arthur W. Lewis, 1984

OpportunitiesOpportunities

Collateral Benefits from Closer Collateral Benefits from Closer Economic Ties across Taiwan-straitEconomic Ties across Taiwan-strait

Direct sea and air linkDirect sea and air linkCost savings may amount up 20-30% which Cost savings may amount up 20-30% which will enhance the global competitiveness of will enhance the global competitiveness of both economies.both economies.

Time savings for travelers and tourists will Time savings for travelers and tourists will boost the real-estate and the sluggish tourism boost the real-estate and the sluggish tourism market in Taiwan.market in Taiwan.

Both factors will revitalize the plan “Building Both factors will revitalize the plan “Building Taiwan as an Asia-Pacific Regional Operations Taiwan as an Asia-Pacific Regional Operations Center,” focusing Taiwan’s location advantage, Center,” focusing Taiwan’s location advantage, manufacturing strength, and rich cultural manufacturing strength, and rich cultural assetsassets..

CollateralCollateral Benefits from Closer Benefits from Closer Economic Ties across Taiwan-straitEconomic Ties across Taiwan-strait

Lifting investment cap and trade barriersLifting investment cap and trade barriersCurrent situationCurrent situation::

1) There is a 40% cap on investment in China for listed 1) There is a 40% cap on investment in China for listed companies in Taiwan.companies in Taiwan.

2) Around 1,200 items of Chinese industrial products and 800 2) Around 1,200 items of Chinese industrial products and 800 items of agricultural goods are not legitimated for free import in items of agricultural goods are not legitimated for free import in Taiwan.Taiwan.

3) Investments in infrastructural, finance and certain high-tech 3) Investments in infrastructural, finance and certain high-tech industries in China are regulated by Taiwan authority.industries in China are regulated by Taiwan authority.

Impact:Impact: 1)1) Further cross-strait division of labor along the horizontal Further cross-strait division of labor along the horizontal

product line and/or vertical process will be possible and product line and/or vertical process will be possible and enhance the trade competitiveness of both economies enhance the trade competitiveness of both economies accordingly.accordingly.

2) Taipei’s position and opportunity as a regional 2) Taipei’s position and opportunity as a regional financial center will be reconfirmedfinancial center will be reconfirmed

CollateralCollateral Benefits from Closer Benefits from Closer Economic Ties across Taiwan-straitEconomic Ties across Taiwan-strait

Further collaborations may take placeFurther collaborations may take place::Environmental protectionEnvironmental protection

Culture activitiesCulture activities

Higher lever of educationHigher lever of education

Development of high-tech industries Development of high-tech industries

CollateralCollateral Benefits from Closer Benefits from Closer Economic Ties across Taiwan-straitEconomic Ties across Taiwan-strait

Prospect:Prospect: A reinforced cross-strait economic ties will A reinforced cross-strait economic ties will

contribute to a more stable and sustainable contribute to a more stable and sustainable economic growth for both parties, for the region, economic growth for both parties, for the region, and the world economy as a whole . and the world economy as a whole .

China in her interest to boost its economy by China in her interest to boost its economy by raising consumption and narrowing trade surplus raising consumption and narrowing trade surplus will provide a cushion for the foreseeable falling will provide a cushion for the foreseeable falling world economy. world economy.

Taiwan, on the other hand, should apply all its Taiwan, on the other hand, should apply all its liberalization measures to China and thus liberalization measures to China and thus qualified as a fully open economyqualified as a fully open economy. .