Transition an introduction A Brief History of Transition Part 1.

Transitionan introduction

A Brief History of Transition

Part 1

Rob Hopkins in Kinsale

Colin Campbell

Founder and Honorary Chairman of ASPO, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

“a roadmap to sustainability, to localisation, to abundance.”

Transition Town Totnes - 2006

transitionculture.org

Published in March 2008

Transition Initiatives

http://transitionnetwork.org/initiatives

Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE

• Climate engineering• Carbon capture and

storage• International

emissions trading• Climate adaptation• Nuclear power

P O + C C =Systems Re-think

• Relocalization• Local Resilience • Design for Energy

Descent

PEAK OIL

• Burn everything!relaxed drilling

regulationsbiofuelstar sands and

non-conventional oils

• Resource nationalism

• Resource Wars

Start of recession

PEAK OIL

GLOBALWARMING

ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

THE LONG EMERGENCY

Energydescent

Economic instability

Environmental destruction

Crisis of the human spirit

Motivating Challenges

Part 2

Energy Descent

Peak Oil in the US

Time ->

IEA admits P.O. without admitting it

No need to worry?

http://www.zaphu.com/2008/05/22/energy-crisis-what-energy-crisis/

Alternative energy is low quality (dispersed) Alternative energy has low EROEI (Energy

Return on Energy Invested) Non-liquid fuels are inefficient for

transportation Alt. energy lacks chemical value of oil

Except that…

Energy Quality Dilute sunlight must be

concentrated to do much work

Electricity has a very high concentration of energy

Our entire way of life depends on oil and cheap energy

No human society had anything near the amount of energy before the discovery of fossil fuels.

A gallon of gasoline represents 500 hours of human labor.

A tank of gas contains 8,000 human hours (three years*) of work!

We take it for granted.

* If you worked for 8 hrs/day, 52 weeks a year, 7 days a week that equates to about 3 years’ work.

The phenomenal energy in gasoline

Energy Return on Energy Invested

We’re not “running out” of energy. We are out of cheap energy. Most of the remaining energy will be too

expensive to procure.

Peak Oil – Takeaways

Rob Hopkins on Energy Descent

Rob Hopkins

“Peak Everything”Resource Depletion

Energy (oil, coal, natural gas) Water Phosphorus Minerals Food Topsoil

Chris Martenson: Crash Course

Peak Everything

The “output” side Ocean acidification Climate weirdness Loss of rainforest Toxic wastes Nuclear waste Loss of 150 species per day

Environmental destruction

US Gross Federal DebtApr 15, 2011: 14.3 trillion

US Adjusted Monetary Base (BASE)

Money is created when banks lend it. By definition, there is always more debt on

the books than there is money to repay it. This system assumes increased production

year over year… which assumes increased resource

extraction, year over year… which, on a finite planet, cannot be

sustained.

Where does money come from?

Since 1970, US economy is based less and less on production of physical goods & services; more on more on debt and financial instruments.

“When you try to create infinite growth on a finite planet, only two things can change: Either the planet gets bigger, which seems unlikely, or the economy stops growing.”- Paul Gilding, former head of Greenpeace International

Economics – Takeaways

Stress Disconnection from nature Loneliness Overwork Crime Rage Addictions Dependence on external systems

(corporations, institutions, government agencies) – “outsourcing” all aspects of life

Crisis of the human spirit

The TransitionResponse

Part 3

Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution

Climax

Techno-Fantasy

Green-Tech StabilityGreen-Tech Stability

Earthstewardship

Mad Max

Great Grand Children

Agriculture 10.000yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby Boom

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Historical Time Future Time

Creative Descent

Transition Towns

Creative Descent

Transition Towns

Where are we going?

How can we plan for an uncertain future?

It’s clear we need to change direction.

But how can we prepare when we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen?

Resilience

“The ability of a system, from individual people to whole economies, to hold together and maintain their ability to function in the face of changeand shocks from the outside.”

Not Adding Resilience:

Centralized recycling

Ornamental trees Organic food,

trucked in Imported “green

building” materials Ethical investment Buying choral CDs Consumerism

Adding Resilience: Local composting Productive trees Local food

production Local building

materials Local currencies Singing in the choir Reciprocity

Relocalization

“The process by which a region, county, city or even neighborhood frees itself from an overdependence on the global economy and invests in its own resources to produce a significant portion of the goods, services, food and energy it consumes from its local endowment of financial, natural and human capital.”

How Do You Engage the Community?

Suggest a Positive Vision"You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To

change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete." Buckminster Fuller

Energy Descent / Abundance Ascent

“The A to C of Transition” Use the ones that seem useful Add new ones you come up with Disregard others that don’t work for you

12 Ingredients (aka Steps)

1. Form an initiating group and design its evolution from the outset

2. Raise Awareness

"What Does Sustainability Mean to You?" "Movie Night: End of Suburbia" "Creating a Pedestrian & Bike-friendly

Community" "Movie Night: The Power of Community How

Cuba Survived Peak Oil" "How do we connect our community?" "Taking Action to Launch Your Ideas" "Permaculture and Transition Towns" "Community Forum with City Light" "Solar Cookout" "My Eco-Neighborhood - an evening talk with

Robyn Francis" "Creating Local Economy" "Climate Change" "Energy / Ingenuity" "Voluntary Simplicity" "After the Oil Rush: Planning our community in

the post-petroleum age" "Local Assets Treasure Hunt"

Some Sustainble NE Seattle Events "Water and Rain Harvesting" "Rethinking Jobs - Transitioning to a Green

Economy" "Show 'N' Tell: Projects for Sustainable Living" "Second Annual Solar Cookout!" "PLANET: HOME a sustainable living festival" "Creating a local resilient economy in NE

Seattle" "Personal Resilience - What's community got

to do with it?" "Gross National Happiness" "Energy! What's Next?" "Oil For Dinner. How Peak Oil and politics

affect what we eat" "Waste Should Not Be Wasted" "City Food Takes Root" "Sustainable community management of

shared resources"

Awareness: Discussion Course

3. Lay the foundations

• Collaborate where possible

• Co-operation, not competition.

4. Organize a Great Unleashing

Transition Whatcom Great Unleashing

Action oriented groups Networking Toward the EDAP Not everyone has the same interests,

skills or passions A resilient community requires

diversity

5. Form working groups

Urban Farmers

Local Currencies

Rob Hopkins: Local Currencies

Local Currencies

6. Use Open Space Open Space Technology World Cafes

7. Develop visible practical manifestations

Solar Potluck

…visible manifestations

"Hands On" Reskilling Fair - Sustainable NE Seattle

8. Facilitate the Great Reskilling

Rob Hopkins: Interacting with Government

9. Build a Bridge to Local Government

10. Honor the elders11. Let it go where it wants to go…12. Create an Energy Descent Plan

And the Rest

Transition Laguna: Heart and Soul Group

Heart & Soul Groups

inner transition and thepsychology of change

What inner beliefs underlie our outer world?

Why have we made a self destructive world?

Why don’t we wake up and do something about it?

How can the Transition movement support inner transition?

The “Energy Descent Action Plan” uniquely distinguishes the Transition process from other "greening" efforts.

We prefer:“Energy Downscaling Action Plan”

Topic areas align with Working Groups

The EDAP – a planned way down

Transition Portland: David Johnson

An “Open-source” movement

Cheerful disclaimer We truly don't know if this will work. Transition is a social experiment on a massive

scale. What we are convinced of is this:

◦ If we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late

◦ If we act as individuals, it'll be too little ◦ But if we act as communities, it might just be

enough, just in time.

www.transitionseattle.com

Transition an introduction A Brief History of Transition Part 1.

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