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Alex Yap（叶君明）Oracle Value Chain Planning (VCP) Solutions （价值链计划解决方案）

Overview

Oracle价值链解决方案介绍 2011/8/19

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The following is intended to outline our general

product direction. It is intended for information

purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any

contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any

material, code, or functionality, and should not be

relied upon in making purchasing decisions.

The development, release, and timing of any

features or functionality described for Oracle’s

products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.

Safe Harbor Statement

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Companies Require

Continuous Change and

Innovation

Realities of the new business environmentTraditional planning systems (MRP, Excel) don’t work anymore

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Today‟s value chains need new planning approachesPlanning strategies that our customers focus on today

SUPPLY CHAIN

COMPLEXITY and RISK

INCORPORATE RISK and

and POSTPONEMENT STRATEGIES

into your S&OP PROCESS

DEMAND VOLATILITY

and UNCERTAINTY

SENSE DEMAND MORE QUICKLY

and SHAPE FOR REV GROWTH

LACK OF RESPONSIVENESS

TO SUDDEN PROBLEMS

IMPROVE AGILITY and QUICKLY

RESPOND TO EVENTS

BUSINESS INSIGHT and

CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

CONTINOUSLY MONITOR

VALUE CHAIN PERFORMANCE

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Value Chain Planning

Solution

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Oracle Value Chain Planning solutionComplete ● Modular ● Integrated ● Open

• Single source of truth

• Integrated with ERP

• Web services enabled

Demand Signal

Management

Demand

Management and

Advanced

Forecasting

Collaborative

Planning and VMI

Production

Scheduling

Global Order

Promising

Service

Parts

Planning

Trade Promotion

Planning and

Optimization

Supply and Distribution

Planning and Event-driven

Simulation

Network Design,

Risk Management,

and Postponement

Sales and

Operations

Planning

Planning

Analytics

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Demand

Signal

Management

Trade

Management

Demand

Management

Sales and

Operations

Planning

Risk

Management

and Network

Design

Event-driven

Simulation

Supply and

Distribution

Planning

Collaboration

and VMI

Production

Scheduling

Global Order

Promising

Service

Parts

Planning

Planning

Analytics

FORECAST TO PLAN

RDBMS COLL SOA SECURITYMIDDLE

WARE

MIOBIEEOBIEE WFL

Common

Planning

Server

Inventory

Postponement

Oracle Value Chain Planning solutionModular – Crawl, walk, run: start with your most important problem first

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SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING

STRATEGIC PLANNING and RISK MGMT

COMPREHENSIVE TRADE MANAGEMENT

INTEGRATED PLANNING and EXECUTION

Oracle Value Chain Planning solutionComplete – Best in class products supporting best in class processes

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Oracle Value Chain Planning architectureDeploy stand-alone or as single instance with Oracle EBS

Collections

Source ERPs

Archive

Analytical Meta

Data Layer (RPD)Planning Data (PDS)Operational Data

(ODS)

Planner

Workbenches

Personalized

Dashboards

Scenarios

Scenario

Orchestration

PLANNING INSTANCE

Web Center

Portal

ODI

& ODI PIPs

• Wiki

• Forums

• Workspaces

• Work list

CANONICAL DATA MODEL

OBIEE

BPEL

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Discrete

Manufacturing

Process

Manufacturing

Consumer Goods /

Distribution

High Tech

Many customers in all sizes, across all industries

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• Achieved 17% reduction in inventory and improved delivery to promise

date to 96%

• reduced ending level inventory from $200M to $50M, saving $8M annually

by automating supply chain processes

• increased forecast accuracy from 50 to 85%, and reduced planning cycle

time from 21 to 5 days

• improved on-time delivery to 98%

• improved inventory turns by 37%

• increased order fill rate from 55% to 95%, increased inventory turns by

100%, reduced price protection claims by 40%

• reduced inventories by $350M, carriers from 200 to 12

• yielded a $12 million reduction in average inventory, improved forecast

accuracy from 35% to 73%, improved fill rate from 80 to 93%

• reduced order cycle time by 30%, raw material inventory by 17%

• increased service level by 12% for same inventory investment

Customers achieve significant benefits

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“We are experiencing significant swings in

demand –complicating demand and supply planning and visibility across

the value chain”

TODAY‟S REALITYDemand volatility and uncertainty

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• Forecasting requires integration

of key data sources

• Modeling unique relationships in

the data is more important

• Everyone needs to talk about the

same set of numbers –

consensus demand management

• Forecasting needs to drive

downstream processes – make it

actionable

Sense demand more quickly

70% cannot forecast beyond 1 quarter

REALITY CHECK

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Align data from multiple sources, closer to the point of

consumption

Leverage pre-built integrations

Leverage extensible model for new business requirements

Sense demand more quickly – The Oracle difference

COLLECT the RIGHT

LEVEL OF DETAIL

Capture behavior in your data – look for influencing factors

Handle exceptions – incomplete data, volume shifts, short

term vs long term trends, outliers, cause and effect issues

Leverage advanced statistics to determine forecast error

MODEL UNIQUE DATA

RELATIONSHIPS

Involve all stakeholders – Move from periodic to continuous

Hold everyone accountable – Audit and measure exceptions

Keep track of consensus decisions and changes – Waterfall

analysis and formal approval processes supported by KPIs

CONSENSUS DEMAND

MANAGEMENT

Drive short to mid term forecast into operations planning

Drive longer term forecast into Financial planning process

Drive postponement and risk management decisions

Provide insight to your trading partners

MAKE FORECAST

ACTIONABLE

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Automate consensus demand managementTailored worksheets personalized for each role

Marketing Manager: Category by Quarter

Operations Mgr: Constrained Forecast

Sales Mgr : Product family by month

Finance Manager: Revenue by Q

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Unlimited causal factorsLeverage Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling option

• Mixed models used in same time series adjust

for multiple causal factors including seasonality,

market trends, and promotions

• Each model contributes different forecast

characteristic to the overall model

• Automatic model selection provides improved

accuracy of “best fit” approaches

– One forecast based on multiple models instead of only

using best-fit model

– Self-tuning engine

• Forecast trees automatically find level with

statistically relevant data

– Forecasts stored at lowest level

– Proportion rules applied when necessary

• Can incorporate external information such as

weather, market drivers, forward indicators, and

competitive data

Causal Analysis

Outlier Detection

Promotion Events

Seasonality

Cyclical Patterns

Trend

Historical

dataBayesian

Estimator

Forecast

Multiple

causal

factors

Combined

model

Bayesian

Optimizer

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• Demand Signal Management– Capture and harmonize demand data

closer to the point of consumption

– Analyze market trends, promotions

effectiveness, and product category sales

• Demand Shaping– Evaluate different promotion tactics and

strategies to shape demand

– Phase in and phase out products at the

right time

– Model forecast for new products based on

the characteristics of other products

• Improve visibility through

forecast collaboration with key

customers

Moving beyond consensus – The Oracle difference

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“We are always very slow to react to

change, instead of being able to

anticipate and respond quickly.”

TODAY‟S REALITYSupply chain agility

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Response 1: Maintain excess inventory

Response 2: Reserve production capacity

Response 3: Expedite everything!

Traditional approach doesn‟t workDisconnected plans, long planning cycles, high latency in decision making

Tier 2Tier 1

Paper

HIGH LATENCY, NO VISIBILITY

?Distribution

plans

Production plans

Mfg plans

MarketingForecast

SalesForecast

OperationsForecast

Supply Chains built on INVENTORY

CUSTOMERS SUPPLIERS

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Improve agility, responsiveness – The Oracle differenceEnable successive and continuous refinement – Improve at all levels

Tactical supply planning

Event-driven simulation

Network design and postponement strategy

• What happens if I enter a new market, encounter a new competitor ?

• What happens if my product mix changes dramatically ?

• What happens if one of my key suppliers goes out of business ?

• How quickly do I understand the ripple effects caused by a problem in one of my facilities ?

• What customers are impacted tomorrow when I get a bad component shipments today ?

• How do I monitor my problems and take actions quickly continuously?

Long term

Mid term

Short term

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Strategic network optimization – Planner Workbench

Sourcing simulation

Profitability analysis

Asset rationalization

Interactive scenario simulation

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Inventory optimization – Planner Workbench

Postponement analysis

Profitability analysis

Budget analysis

Safety stock level analysis

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Plan your entire value chain

Reduce the number of plans

Comprehensive manufacturing planning

Comprehensive distribution planning

Supply chain planning – The Oracle difference

REDUCE PLANNING

CYCLE TIME

Automate planning decision making

Improve planner productivity

What if simulation and root cause analysis

Operations analysis

MAKE BETTER

DECISIONS FASTER

EXECUTE TO PLAN

Drive daily tactical planning processes based on S&OP plan

Design resilient value chains and enable postponement

Monitor tactical planning processes

ENABLE BEST IN CLASS

BUSINESS PROCESSES

Integrated planning and scheduling

Enforce planning decisions when promising orders

Collaborate with suppliers and enable VMI processes

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Tactical planning – make better decisions fasterImproved analysis and planner productivity

Work list

Decision rules

Late demand diagnosis

Gantt chart analysis

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React quickly to supply chain events with fast incremental

plan runs – make decisions in minutes

Comprehensive mass edit for ease of data manipulation

Enable fast sales and operations planning simulations

Event driven planning – The Oracle difference

RAPID WHAT-IF

SCENARIO PLANNING

Spreadsheet-style UI and extensive personalization

Predictive and actionable insight via embedded analytics

Compare exceptions and key performance indicators

Compare orders across plans to analyze improvements

STRONG UI with

EMBEDDED ANALYTICS

Planners collaborate on a single enterprise supply plan

Each planner can simulate changes in „sand-box‟

Merge changes from multiple planners to master

Multi-enterprise visibility and planning

PLANNERS

COLLABORATE on

SIMULATIONS

Simulate changes before they hit ERP

Out-of-the-box integration with ERP

No latency: release directly to execution

TRANSLATE DECISIONS

into ACTIONS

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Event driven planning - improve planner productivity

Supply chain bill and material plan

Mass edit and simulate in minutes

Exceptions and related orders

Performance and material plan

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Event driven planning - enable key analysis processes

Cost and profit driven decisions

Clear to build analysis

Late demand root-cause analysis

Demand pull-in and upside view

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• Constrained order promising– Consider material and resource

constraints (ATP, CTP, CTD)

– Enforce allocation decisions

• Multi-enterprise visibility– Collaborate with contract manufacturers

and key suppliers by providing order

forecast and receiving supply commits

– Reduce inventory cost and improve

service levels through vendor managed

inventory processes

• Move your service operations

from cost to profit centers– Forecast based on part usages and

contracts while dealing with intermittent

demand patterns

– Replenish and redistribute spare parts

through your service supply chain

Moving beyond tactical planning – The Oracle difference

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“We are experiencing significant problems

because every department just makes

its own sub-optimal decisions – we lack

visibility and consensus”

Supply chain complexity and risk – Key for S&OP decisions

TODAY‟S REALITY

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S&OP requires alignment of many processes

Long-termfinancial plan

CorporateFinance

Financial Planning and Accounting

Sales and Marketing

SupplyChain

RevisedLT financial plan

Initialannual budget

Long-term sales forecast

Consensusdemand plan

Supply chain costs and

constraints

Adjust constrained

operating plan

Align revenue forecast and

budgets

Long-term capacity plan

Sales and marketing plan

Monthly review &

revise plan

Monitor demand & reconcile with plan

Strategic Tactical Operating

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Pre-built S&OP analysis work sheets

Workflow driven process automation, exception

management, and approvals

Real-time, iterative and proactive process

Sales and Operations Planning – The Oracle difference

SUPPORT A COMPLETE

S&OP PROCESS

Pre-built performance management S&OP dashboard

Dashboard pages for demand review, supply review,

financial review, and executive review

Managers assign task to planners to analyze

INTERACTIVELY

ENGAGE

MANAGEMENT

EVALUATE ALTERNATE

BUSINESS SCENARIOS

Enforce allocation decision when promising supply

Drive daily tactical planning processes based on S&OP plan

Monitor tactical planning processes

DRIVE DECISIONS INTO

EXECUTION

Automatically translate detailed planning information to

corporate metrics

Analyze demand, supply, capacity, and finance, metrics

Compare current to previous, baseline to alternate

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Complete S&OP processAnalysts simulate, executive review, planners enforce decisions

RTS&OP

for analysts

Other VCP Apps

for planners

Adv. Pln. Command Center

for key executives

• Simulate impacts of constrained forecast changes

• Compare consensus forecast with constrained forecast

• View supply information at all levels of aggregation

• Evaluate the allocation of constrained supply to demand

• Examine throughput on the most critically constrained resources

• Enforce allocation decisions

o Supply planning

o Order promising

• Make allocation decisions while trading off service levels and cost

• Balance needs of many customers in different channels

• Involve key executives directly in the S&OP process

• Pre-built analysis views for Finance, Executive, Demand and Supply review

• Optionally, define alerts for exceptions

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S&OP - interactively engage management360 Degree visibility across the entire process – S&OP Dashboard

Executive review

Demand review

Supply review

Financial review

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• Postponement strategies– Improve service levels with lower

inventory investment

– Determine what inventory to hold where

across your value chain

– Trade off service levels vs inventory cost

• Risk management– Evaluate the business risk of single

source components

– Determine asset rationalization strategies

– Lower the cost of operating your supply

chain network

• Integrated business planning– Connect financial and operations planning

– Evaluate budget decisions as part of your

S&OP process

Moving beyond tactical planning – The Oracle difference

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TODAY‟S REALITYBusiness managers have no insight

“We constantly struggle with multiple disparate, departmental

data sources and a lack of a holistic monitoring process. We

have no insight in the performance of our business.”

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Pre-built dashboards for business analysis

Proactive response to performance deviations

Aggregate to detail level drill downs for root-cause analysis

Predictive analytics – The Oracle difference

PROVIDE INSIGHT to KEY

DECISION MAKERS

Simulate alternative business scenarios

In-context drill downs for power users

Review what-if simulations in business metrics

CLOSED LOOP ANALYSIS

PROCESSES

Assign tasks to planners for execution

Web services for all key planning processes

Approval management (via BPEL process automation)

PROCESS AUTOMATION

Pre-built performance measures, hierarchies, dimensions

Pre-built reports

Manage structured and unstructured information

START QUICKLY with

PRE-BUILT CONTENT

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Provide easy access to performance metrics via self-service pre-built dashboards

Combine data from demand, finance, and operations translated into corporate metrics

Quickly adapt and secure reports for various organizational roles

Drill down in context to perform root-cause analysis

Provide insight to key decision makers

Compare alternate

scenarios

Analyze key

Planning metrics

Analyze profit

and loss

Analyze constrained forecast

Drill down to

relevant details

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Pre-built dashboards – Reduce implementation timeDesigned with customers, leveraging ease of OBIEE technology

S&OP

Scenarios

Analysis

Inventory

Analysis and

E&O

Risk

Analysis

Tactical Plan

Analysis

Service Plan

Analysis

Role-based dashboards, 300+ KPIs, 700+ reports

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Value Chain Planning

Summary

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Why Oracle Value Chain Planning

Complete – Comprehensive best in class solution

Modular – Start with most important problem first

Integrated – Designed to work together, 1+1 = 3

Open – Integrate with Oracle ERP and other systems

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3

4

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+ High degree of investment and innovation

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