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Alex Yap(叶君明)Oracle Value Chain Planning (VCP) Solutions (价值链计划解决方案)
Overview
Oracle价值链解决方案介绍 2011/8/19
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The following is intended to outline our general
product direction. It is intended for information
purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any
contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any
material, code, or functionality, and should not be
relied upon in making purchasing decisions.
The development, release, and timing of any
features or functionality described for Oracle’s
products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.
Safe Harbor Statement
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Companies Require
Continuous Change and
Innovation
Realities of the new business environmentTraditional planning systems (MRP, Excel) don’t work anymore
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Today‟s value chains need new planning approachesPlanning strategies that our customers focus on today
SUPPLY CHAIN
COMPLEXITY and RISK
INCORPORATE RISK and
and POSTPONEMENT STRATEGIES
into your S&OP PROCESS
DEMAND VOLATILITY
and UNCERTAINTY
SENSE DEMAND MORE QUICKLY
and SHAPE FOR REV GROWTH
LACK OF RESPONSIVENESS
TO SUDDEN PROBLEMS
IMPROVE AGILITY and QUICKLY
RESPOND TO EVENTS
BUSINESS INSIGHT and
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
CONTINOUSLY MONITOR
VALUE CHAIN PERFORMANCE
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Value Chain Planning
Solution
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Oracle Value Chain Planning solutionComplete ● Modular ● Integrated ● Open
• Single source of truth
• Integrated with ERP
• Web services enabled
Demand Signal
Management
Demand
Management and
Advanced
Forecasting
Collaborative
Planning and VMI
Production
Scheduling
Global Order
Promising
Service
Parts
Planning
Trade Promotion
Planning and
Optimization
Supply and Distribution
Planning and Event-driven
Simulation
Network Design,
Risk Management,
and Postponement
Sales and
Operations
Planning
Planning
Analytics
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Demand
Signal
Management
Trade
Management
Demand
Management
Sales and
Operations
Planning
Risk
Management
and Network
Design
Event-driven
Simulation
Supply and
Distribution
Planning
Collaboration
and VMI
Production
Scheduling
Global Order
Promising
Service
Parts
Planning
Planning
Analytics
FORECAST TO PLAN
RDBMS COLL SOA SECURITYMIDDLE
WARE
MIOBIEEOBIEE WFL
Common
Planning
Server
Inventory
Postponement
Oracle Value Chain Planning solutionModular – Crawl, walk, run: start with your most important problem first
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SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING
STRATEGIC PLANNING and RISK MGMT
COMPREHENSIVE TRADE MANAGEMENT
INTEGRATED PLANNING and EXECUTION
Oracle Value Chain Planning solutionComplete – Best in class products supporting best in class processes
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Oracle Value Chain Planning architectureDeploy stand-alone or as single instance with Oracle EBS
Collections
Source ERPs
Archive
Analytical Meta
Data Layer (RPD)Planning Data (PDS)Operational Data
(ODS)
Planner
Workbenches
Personalized
Dashboards
Scenarios
Scenario
Orchestration
PLANNING INSTANCE
Web Center
Portal
ODI
& ODI PIPs
• Wiki
• Forums
• Workspaces
• Work list
CANONICAL DATA MODEL
OBIEE
BPEL
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Discrete
Manufacturing
Process
Manufacturing
Consumer Goods /
Distribution
High Tech
Many customers in all sizes, across all industries
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• Achieved 17% reduction in inventory and improved delivery to promise
date to 96%
• reduced ending level inventory from $200M to $50M, saving $8M annually
by automating supply chain processes
• increased forecast accuracy from 50 to 85%, and reduced planning cycle
time from 21 to 5 days
• improved on-time delivery to 98%
• improved inventory turns by 37%
• increased order fill rate from 55% to 95%, increased inventory turns by
100%, reduced price protection claims by 40%
• reduced inventories by $350M, carriers from 200 to 12
• yielded a $12 million reduction in average inventory, improved forecast
accuracy from 35% to 73%, improved fill rate from 80 to 93%
• reduced order cycle time by 30%, raw material inventory by 17%
• increased service level by 12% for same inventory investment
Customers achieve significant benefits
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“We are experiencing significant swings in
demand –complicating demand and supply planning and visibility across
the value chain”
TODAY‟S REALITYDemand volatility and uncertainty
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• Forecasting requires integration
of key data sources
• Modeling unique relationships in
the data is more important
• Everyone needs to talk about the
same set of numbers –
consensus demand management
• Forecasting needs to drive
downstream processes – make it
actionable
Sense demand more quickly
70% cannot forecast beyond 1 quarter
REALITY CHECK
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Align data from multiple sources, closer to the point of
consumption
Leverage pre-built integrations
Leverage extensible model for new business requirements
Sense demand more quickly – The Oracle difference
COLLECT the RIGHT
LEVEL OF DETAIL
Capture behavior in your data – look for influencing factors
Handle exceptions – incomplete data, volume shifts, short
term vs long term trends, outliers, cause and effect issues
Leverage advanced statistics to determine forecast error
MODEL UNIQUE DATA
RELATIONSHIPS
Involve all stakeholders – Move from periodic to continuous
Hold everyone accountable – Audit and measure exceptions
Keep track of consensus decisions and changes – Waterfall
analysis and formal approval processes supported by KPIs
CONSENSUS DEMAND
MANAGEMENT
Drive short to mid term forecast into operations planning
Drive longer term forecast into Financial planning process
Drive postponement and risk management decisions
Provide insight to your trading partners
MAKE FORECAST
ACTIONABLE
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Automate consensus demand managementTailored worksheets personalized for each role
Marketing Manager: Category by Quarter
Operations Mgr: Constrained Forecast
Sales Mgr : Product family by month
Finance Manager: Revenue by Q
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Unlimited causal factorsLeverage Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling option
• Mixed models used in same time series adjust
for multiple causal factors including seasonality,
market trends, and promotions
• Each model contributes different forecast
characteristic to the overall model
• Automatic model selection provides improved
accuracy of “best fit” approaches
– One forecast based on multiple models instead of only
using best-fit model
– Self-tuning engine
• Forecast trees automatically find level with
statistically relevant data
– Forecasts stored at lowest level
– Proportion rules applied when necessary
• Can incorporate external information such as
weather, market drivers, forward indicators, and
competitive data
Causal Analysis
Outlier Detection
Promotion Events
Seasonality
Cyclical Patterns
Trend
Historical
dataBayesian
Estimator
Forecast
Multiple
causal
factors
Combined
model
Bayesian
Optimizer
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• Demand Signal Management– Capture and harmonize demand data
closer to the point of consumption
– Analyze market trends, promotions
effectiveness, and product category sales
• Demand Shaping– Evaluate different promotion tactics and
strategies to shape demand
– Phase in and phase out products at the
right time
– Model forecast for new products based on
the characteristics of other products
• Improve visibility through
forecast collaboration with key
customers
Moving beyond consensus – The Oracle difference
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“We are always very slow to react to
change, instead of being able to
anticipate and respond quickly.”
TODAY‟S REALITYSupply chain agility
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Response 1: Maintain excess inventory
Response 2: Reserve production capacity
Response 3: Expedite everything!
Traditional approach doesn‟t workDisconnected plans, long planning cycles, high latency in decision making
Tier 2Tier 1
Paper
HIGH LATENCY, NO VISIBILITY
?Distribution
plans
Production plans
Mfg plans
MarketingForecast
SalesForecast
OperationsForecast
Supply Chains built on INVENTORY
CUSTOMERS SUPPLIERS
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Improve agility, responsiveness – The Oracle differenceEnable successive and continuous refinement – Improve at all levels
Tactical supply planning
Event-driven simulation
Network design and postponement strategy
• What happens if I enter a new market, encounter a new competitor ?
• What happens if my product mix changes dramatically ?
• What happens if one of my key suppliers goes out of business ?
• How quickly do I understand the ripple effects caused by a problem in one of my facilities ?
• What customers are impacted tomorrow when I get a bad component shipments today ?
• How do I monitor my problems and take actions quickly continuously?
Long term
Mid term
Short term
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Strategic network optimization – Planner Workbench
Sourcing simulation
Profitability analysis
Asset rationalization
Interactive scenario simulation
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Inventory optimization – Planner Workbench
Postponement analysis
Profitability analysis
Budget analysis
Safety stock level analysis
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Plan your entire value chain
Reduce the number of plans
Comprehensive manufacturing planning
Comprehensive distribution planning
Supply chain planning – The Oracle difference
REDUCE PLANNING
CYCLE TIME
Automate planning decision making
Improve planner productivity
What if simulation and root cause analysis
Operations analysis
MAKE BETTER
DECISIONS FASTER
EXECUTE TO PLAN
Drive daily tactical planning processes based on S&OP plan
Design resilient value chains and enable postponement
Monitor tactical planning processes
ENABLE BEST IN CLASS
BUSINESS PROCESSES
Integrated planning and scheduling
Enforce planning decisions when promising orders
Collaborate with suppliers and enable VMI processes
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Tactical planning – make better decisions fasterImproved analysis and planner productivity
Work list
Decision rules
Late demand diagnosis
Gantt chart analysis
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React quickly to supply chain events with fast incremental
plan runs – make decisions in minutes
Comprehensive mass edit for ease of data manipulation
Enable fast sales and operations planning simulations
Event driven planning – The Oracle difference
RAPID WHAT-IF
SCENARIO PLANNING
Spreadsheet-style UI and extensive personalization
Predictive and actionable insight via embedded analytics
Compare exceptions and key performance indicators
Compare orders across plans to analyze improvements
STRONG UI with
EMBEDDED ANALYTICS
Planners collaborate on a single enterprise supply plan
Each planner can simulate changes in „sand-box‟
Merge changes from multiple planners to master
Multi-enterprise visibility and planning
PLANNERS
COLLABORATE on
SIMULATIONS
Simulate changes before they hit ERP
Out-of-the-box integration with ERP
No latency: release directly to execution
TRANSLATE DECISIONS
into ACTIONS
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Event driven planning - improve planner productivity
Supply chain bill and material plan
Mass edit and simulate in minutes
Exceptions and related orders
Performance and material plan
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Event driven planning - enable key analysis processes
Cost and profit driven decisions
Clear to build analysis
Late demand root-cause analysis
Demand pull-in and upside view
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• Constrained order promising– Consider material and resource
constraints (ATP, CTP, CTD)
– Enforce allocation decisions
• Multi-enterprise visibility– Collaborate with contract manufacturers
and key suppliers by providing order
forecast and receiving supply commits
– Reduce inventory cost and improve
service levels through vendor managed
inventory processes
• Move your service operations
from cost to profit centers– Forecast based on part usages and
contracts while dealing with intermittent
demand patterns
– Replenish and redistribute spare parts
through your service supply chain
Moving beyond tactical planning – The Oracle difference
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“We are experiencing significant problems
because every department just makes
its own sub-optimal decisions – we lack
visibility and consensus”
Supply chain complexity and risk – Key for S&OP decisions
TODAY‟S REALITY
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S&OP requires alignment of many processes
Long-termfinancial plan
CorporateFinance
Financial Planning and Accounting
Sales and Marketing
SupplyChain
RevisedLT financial plan
Initialannual budget
Long-term sales forecast
Consensusdemand plan
Supply chain costs and
constraints
Adjust constrained
operating plan
Align revenue forecast and
budgets
Long-term capacity plan
Sales and marketing plan
Monthly review &
revise plan
Monitor demand & reconcile with plan
Strategic Tactical Operating
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Pre-built S&OP analysis work sheets
Workflow driven process automation, exception
management, and approvals
Real-time, iterative and proactive process
Sales and Operations Planning – The Oracle difference
SUPPORT A COMPLETE
S&OP PROCESS
Pre-built performance management S&OP dashboard
Dashboard pages for demand review, supply review,
financial review, and executive review
Managers assign task to planners to analyze
INTERACTIVELY
ENGAGE
MANAGEMENT
EVALUATE ALTERNATE
BUSINESS SCENARIOS
Enforce allocation decision when promising supply
Drive daily tactical planning processes based on S&OP plan
Monitor tactical planning processes
DRIVE DECISIONS INTO
EXECUTION
Automatically translate detailed planning information to
corporate metrics
Analyze demand, supply, capacity, and finance, metrics
Compare current to previous, baseline to alternate
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Complete S&OP processAnalysts simulate, executive review, planners enforce decisions
RTS&OP
for analysts
Other VCP Apps
for planners
Adv. Pln. Command Center
for key executives
• Simulate impacts of constrained forecast changes
• Compare consensus forecast with constrained forecast
• View supply information at all levels of aggregation
• Evaluate the allocation of constrained supply to demand
• Examine throughput on the most critically constrained resources
• Enforce allocation decisions
o Supply planning
o Order promising
• Make allocation decisions while trading off service levels and cost
• Balance needs of many customers in different channels
• Involve key executives directly in the S&OP process
• Pre-built analysis views for Finance, Executive, Demand and Supply review
• Optionally, define alerts for exceptions
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S&OP - interactively engage management360 Degree visibility across the entire process – S&OP Dashboard
Executive review
Demand review
Supply review
Financial review
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• Postponement strategies– Improve service levels with lower
inventory investment
– Determine what inventory to hold where
across your value chain
– Trade off service levels vs inventory cost
• Risk management– Evaluate the business risk of single
source components
– Determine asset rationalization strategies
– Lower the cost of operating your supply
chain network
• Integrated business planning– Connect financial and operations planning
– Evaluate budget decisions as part of your
S&OP process
Moving beyond tactical planning – The Oracle difference
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TODAY‟S REALITYBusiness managers have no insight
“We constantly struggle with multiple disparate, departmental
data sources and a lack of a holistic monitoring process. We
have no insight in the performance of our business.”
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Pre-built dashboards for business analysis
Proactive response to performance deviations
Aggregate to detail level drill downs for root-cause analysis
Predictive analytics – The Oracle difference
PROVIDE INSIGHT to KEY
DECISION MAKERS
Simulate alternative business scenarios
In-context drill downs for power users
Review what-if simulations in business metrics
CLOSED LOOP ANALYSIS
PROCESSES
Assign tasks to planners for execution
Web services for all key planning processes
Approval management (via BPEL process automation)
PROCESS AUTOMATION
Pre-built performance measures, hierarchies, dimensions
Pre-built reports
Manage structured and unstructured information
START QUICKLY with
PRE-BUILT CONTENT
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Provide easy access to performance metrics via self-service pre-built dashboards
Combine data from demand, finance, and operations translated into corporate metrics
Quickly adapt and secure reports for various organizational roles
Drill down in context to perform root-cause analysis
Provide insight to key decision makers
Compare alternate
scenarios
Analyze key
Planning metrics
Analyze profit
and loss
Analyze constrained forecast
Drill down to
relevant details
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Pre-built dashboards – Reduce implementation timeDesigned with customers, leveraging ease of OBIEE technology
S&OP
Scenarios
Analysis
Inventory
Analysis and
E&O
Risk
Analysis
Tactical Plan
Analysis
Service Plan
Analysis
Role-based dashboards, 300+ KPIs, 700+ reports
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Value Chain Planning
Summary
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Why Oracle Value Chain Planning
Complete – Comprehensive best in class solution
Modular – Start with most important problem first
Integrated – Designed to work together, 1+1 = 3
Open – Integrate with Oracle ERP and other systems
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+ High degree of investment and innovation
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