Insight......

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ภายใต้สภาพแวดล้อมทั้งภายในประเทศและภายนอกประเทศที่กำลังเปลี่ยนแปลงอย่างรวดเร็วและรุนแรงมากขึ้นในปัจจุบัน คำถามสำคัญคือ "SMEs ไทยมีความแข็งแกร่งและมีความพร้อมในการเผชิญกับความท้าทายต่างๆ เหล่านั้นมากน้อยเพียงใด และจะแสวงหาประโยชน์จากโอกาสที่เกิดขึ้นได้อย่างไร?" ขอบคุณข้อมูลดีๆ จากธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์ จำกัด (มหาชน)

Transcript of Insight......

  • www.scbeic.com E-mail : [email protected] : +662 544 2953

    0505Houseview

    Executive summary

    SMEs

    SMEs

    SMEs

    ... SMEs

    SMEs ?

    SMEs

    4 - 7

    8 - 10

    11 -17

    18 - 25

    26 - 39

    40 - 50

    51 - 55

    56 - 70

    71 - 73

    SMEs global trend ?

    AECSMEs ?

    EIC Online

    Update

    E-mail

  • www.scbeic.com E-mail : [email protected] : +662 544 2953

    0505Houseview

    Executive summary

    SMEs

    SMEs

    SMEs

    ... SMEs

    SMEs ?

    SMEs

    4 - 7

    8 - 10

    11 -17

    18 - 25

    26 - 39

    40 - 50

    51 - 55

    56 - 70

    71 - 73

    SMEs global trend ?

    AECSMEs ?

    EIC Online

    Update

    E-mail

  • 4EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC SMEs ?

    SMEs

    ?

    SMEs

    300

    SMEs

    (labor-

    intensive industry)

    (turnover rate)

    (AEC)

    SMEs

    AEC

    (direct

    effect)

    (indirect effect)

    300 8%

    100% 100% 3%

    4%

    SMEs 10-15

  • 5EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    (skill mismatch)

    SMEs

    (labor

    productivity)

    SMEs

    SCB EIC SMEs

    SMEs

    1-2

    300 SMEs 12% EIC

    8%

    SMEs

    SMEs

  • 6EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC SMEs AEC AEC

    SMEs SMEs AEC

    SMEs

    global trend

    (border trade) SMEs SMEs

    SMEs

    (global trend)

    SMEs

    (social

    network)

    SMEs

    emerging markets

    (niche market)

    ...

    SMEs

    global trend SMEs

    AEC

    SMEs SMEs CLMV

  • 7EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    Focus group SMEs (SCB Yong Entrepreneur Program YEP) 12

    SCB EIC

    SMEs

    SMEs AEC

    SMEs

  • 8EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    (business environment)

    SMEs

    300

    SMEs SMEs (labor-intensive industry) SMEs

    SMEs1

    300 1

    : SCB EIC SMEs

    13.1 12.5 12.9

    6.0

    12.6

    16.0

    8.66.1

    Small Medium

    300

    : %

    300

    : %

  • (turnover rate) SMEs

    SMEs SMEs

    SMEs

    (AEC) SMEs

    AEC

    SMEs

    3

    9

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    2

    : SCB EIC SMEs

    7.5

    15.6

    12.1

    2.0

    11.2 10.88.9

    16.0

    Small Medium

    sector: %

    : %

  • (non-tariff barriers)

    ( )

    SMEs

    supply chain

    SMEs SMEs

    SMEs

    SMEs

    (craftsmanship) SMEs

    10

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    (labor productivity) SMEs 3

    : SCB EIC

    SMEs

    global trend

    :

    200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000

    2005 2011

    CAGR5%

    CAGR4%

    Overall

    SMEs

    :

  • 300 SMEs

    (direct effect) (indirect effect)

    (cost pass-through) SMEs

    (direct effect) 2%

    -- (hospitality)

    SCB EIC 30%

    80%

    10% hospitality

    30% 40%

    11

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    (direct effect) 4

    : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO)

    2

    (direct effect) 2

    : %

    hospitality

    =

    5.0%

    4.0%

    3.4%

    2.1% 5.2%

  • (indirect effect) (supply chain)

    100% 8% 100%

    12

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    100% 8% 5

    : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO)

    2 = 100%: %

    : 7.6%

    2

    = 100%

    : %

  • 100% (long-run cost pass-through) 25-35%

    5 100% 2

    1. (base case)

    5 10% 50%

    30%

    2. (high pass-through case)

    5 30% 70%

    50% 20%

    (systemic shock)

    13

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

  • 14

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    6

    : SCB EIC

    50% 70%+ 40% 60% 30% 50%- 20% 40% 10% 30%

    1 2

    - 20% 40% - 20% 40% 50% 70% -hospitality - 20% 40% 30% 50% 10% 30% - 30% 50% -- 30% 50% -- 30% 50% 3G 30% 50% 30% 50% 30% 50% + 40% 60% - 20% 40%

    1 2

  • 100%

    3%

    100%

    hospitality

    pass-through 20%

    23% 20%

    hospitality

    15

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

  • 16

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    100%

    (indirect effect)

    7

    8

    : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO)

    : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO)

    : %

    (indirect effect)

    : % : %

    (indirect effect)

    : %

    : 2.6% : 3.2%: 2.6% : 3.2%

  • 100%

    2 100% SCB EIC Input-Output table 2005 ( ) 2.3-2.4 3.3-3.4% GDP 2005 (margin) 4% hospitality

    margin

    17

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    9

    : SCB EIC 1/2010 (Labor Force Survey 1Q/2010) Input-Output table 2005 (NSO)

    : %

    (margin) 100% (margin) 100%

    : %

  • SMEs

    SMEs (labor productivity)

    10-15

    2005 2011

    10-15

    10-15

    18

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    SMEs 3

    10-15 10

    : SCB EIC NESDB APO Productivity Database 2012

    2011

    :

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    0-4

    5-9

    10-1

    4

    15-1

    9

    20-2

    4

    25-2

    9

    30-3

    4

    35-3

    9

    40-4

    4

    45-4

    9

    50-5

    4

    55-5

    9

    60-6

    4

    65-6

    9

    70-7

    4

    75-7

    9

    80+

    10-15

    10-15

  • 4,900 2011 ( 2000) (2005-2011)

    1.4% 2000-2005 3.8%

    1.4%

    2005-2011 12,000 2011 ( 2000)

    10%

    (middle-income trap)

    19

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    11

    : SCB EIC World Bank

    176.2

    210.0

    Real GDP 2005 Real GDP 2011

    -1.5

    18.2

    (1% )

    17.1

    33.8

    (2% )

    2005-2011:

    2005-2011

    :

  • 12,000 2011 ( 2000)

    1,700 5,000

    40% 46% 14% 4,900

    middle-income trap

    20

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    12

    : SCB EIC IMF World Bank

    ( 2011)

    : 2000 : %CAGR

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    -4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

    10%12%

    1990

    -1995

    1995

    -2000

    2000

    -2005

    2005

    -2011

  • BOX: ?

    SCB EIC

    103,000 3 260,000

    21

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    13

    : SCB EIC

    14 15

    23 25

    2005 2011

    3639

    1.5%

    1.1%

    20,000

    15,000

    12,000

    9,000

    : , %CAGR :

  • (skill mismatch) World Bank 30% AEC

    22

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    Skill mismatch

    14

    : SCB EIC

    () :

    -300

    -200

    -100

    -

    100

    200

    300

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    . .

    -300

    -200

    -100

    -

    100

    200

    300

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    ()

    :

  • skill mismatch

    1 1 3-7 . .

    90%

    SMEs

    SMEs

    hospitality

    23

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

  • SMEs

    SMEs

    24

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    15

    : SCB EIC CEIC

    2010

    : (nominal price 2010)

    32,275 22,26417,889 9,66817,399 2,3300

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    30,000

    35,000

  • 300 SMEs SMEs SMEs

    layout

    3

    (productivity) 300

    outsource outsource

    (value-added)

    (white labeling)

    quantity discount

    (differentiation and uniqueness)

    BOX: SMEs 300

    25

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

  • 26

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    SMEs

    300

    (AEC)

    SMEs SMEs

    SMEs

    SMEs 1 1-2

    300

    13% 1-2

    SMEs SMEs SMEs 9%

    AEC

    SMEs 4

    SMEs 1-2 16

    : () 1-2 : SCB EIC

    1 SMEs 37 308

    9%

    2%

    7%8%

    13%11% 10% 9%

    0%2%4%6%8%

    10%12%14%

    1-2

    1-2 : %

    1-2

    : %

  • SCB EIC SMEs SMEs 2

    300 (AEC)

    300 SMEs

    12% 300

    (indirect

    effect) 6-7% SMEs 12% SMEs

    8% ( 2 ) SMEs

    27

    EIC l Economic Intelligence Center

    SMEs 300 1