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Future of airline distribution

航空公司分销的未来

2019民航趋势论坛 AVIATION TRENDS CONFERENCE 2019

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY 专有机密信息Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company

is strictly prohibited 未经麦肯锡公司特别许可，严禁使用本资料

2019/6

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资料来源：中国采用艾瑞咨询和中国商务部数据；其他国家和地区采用美国市场研究公司eMarketer

Source: Use data from iResearch and MOC for China; Use eMarketer, a US market research company for other coutries

1 网络B2C和C2C市场；2019年底估算 Both online B2C and C2C market; estimated, as of the end of 2019 2 年复合增长率 CAGR 3 B2C+C2C网络零售交易额相对社会商品零售总额（不含餐饮服务）的占比Online retail(B2C+C2C) transaction value as % of total retail transaction value(exclude food and beverage service )

4 阿里巴巴GMV预计到2019年突破1万亿美元 Alibaba GMV is estimated to top 1trn$ by 2019 5 2017年，中国≈全球其余6大经济体的总合 China≈the combined value of other 6 big economies in 2017

China continues to lead the global ecommerce market中国继续引领着全球的网络零售市场

China overtakes other the

combined value of 10 big

economies(US, UK, Japan,

Korea, German, France,

Canada, India, Russia,

Brazil)5

中国超越全球其余前10大经济体（美国，英国，日本，韩国，德国，法国，加拿大，印度，俄罗斯，巴西）的总合5

网络零售交易额（2019年底1，美元） eCommerce retail1 market transaction ($, as of the end of 20191)

China中国

~1.5万亿美元4

~1.5trn $ 4

US美国

6000亿美元600bn $

15% 11%

UK英国

1350亿美元135bn $

14% 22%

Japan

日本 1150亿美元115bn $

5% 9%

Germany

德国

800亿美元80bn $

9% 9%

France法国

Russia俄罗斯

300亿美金30bn $

24% 5%

Brazil

巴西

India

印度 Indonesia

印度尼西亚400亿美元40bn $

36% 3%

150亿美元15bn $

36% 4%

24%

25%300亿美金

30bn $

13% 4%

650亿美元65bn $

15% 10%

Argetina

阿根廷

70亿美元7bn ￥

21% 3%

900亿美元90bn $

22% 22%

Korea

韩国

2017-19E CAGR2

2017-19预计 CAGR2

占零售总额比例3as % of

total retail transaction value3

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1 As of total 2017 population 截至2017年的总人口2 Data as of 2017, online retail includes online B2C plus C2C market 数据截至2017年，在线零售包括在线B2C及C2C市场

China cities中国城市

Rapid E-commerce adoption from 1% up to ~23%

of national retail mix in 2017电子商务快速发展，占全国零售总额比例从1%上升到2017年的~23%

Online retail transaction value as % pf

total retail transaction value1, %

在线交易总额占零售总额比例1, %

SOURCE: eMarketer; Uber; Strategic Analysis; Worldbank; National Bureau of Statistics; CNNIC; McKinsey analysis

资料来源：eMarketer; Uber; Strategic Analysis；世界银行；国家统计局；中国互联网信息中心；麦肯锡分析

Shared mobility adoption for is 10x faster than in

US cities共享出行的普及速度是美国城市的10倍

Monthly shared mobility trips in cities, #

城市中月共享出行次数，次

>772 Mn 7.72亿Internet user base

互联网用户数量

>56%1

Internet user penetration

互联网用户渗透率

>72%1

Smartphone penetration

智能手机渗透率

Leading mobile payment adoption rate driven by

China’s internet platforms在中国的互联网平台推动下，手机支付普及率遥遥领先

POS mobile payment user as % of total

smartphone user3, %

手机支付用户占总手机用户比例3, %

China enjoys rapid adoption of latest technology innovations, thanks to high smartphone penetration

and open-minded digital consumer base得益于很高的智能手机渗透率和思想开明的数字消费者群体，中国能够快速普及最新科技创新

20152000 20200

2005 2010

10

20

5

15

25

Germany德国

China中国

US美国

2014 2015 20175

15

10

2016

20

25

30

35

40

45

US美国

Germany德国

China中国

Months since launch自推出后的月数

Other

cities其他国家城市

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Despite strong discount expectation, travel online services actually stimulate consumers’ total travel

spend

尽管有望获得较高折扣，在线旅游服务实际上会刺激消费者的旅游总体消费

59

13

13

105

Same as traditional price

与传统价格一样

<5% premium 溢价少于5%

Must be lower than

traditional price

必须低于传统价格

旅游

>10% premium 溢价超过10%

5-10% premium 溢价为5-10%

3

13

61

18

4

1

开始旅游

减少一点

增加很多

不变

增加一点

减少很多

SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer China 2016

~60% of consumers expect lower price from travel online

services ...

~60%消费者期望从在线旅游服务获得更低的价格 …

... but 77% indicate their total travel spend increased

… 但 77%的消费者指出其旅游总体消费增加

% of travel online users, N = 188

在线旅游服务用户 %，N = 188

% of travel online users, N = 188

在线旅游服务用户 %，N = 188

What is the highest price you are willing to pay for travel online

services?

您愿意为在线旅游服务支付的最高价格是多少？

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Air ticket sales online penetration rate, 2011-2018 , %

2011年-2018年机票销售在线渗透率, %

Air ticket online penetration rate surpassed Europe for the first time during 2018

2018机票在线渗透率首次超过欧洲

SOURCE: PhocusWright

0

40

10

20

30

50

60

142011 12 13 15 16 17 2018

US

美国Europe

欧洲China

中国

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…but the airline self-owned direct sales percentage still lags behind

…但航空公司自有渠道直接销售的百分比仍然落后

SOURCE: China Southern 2018 annual report, Air China 2018 annual report; China Eastern 2018 annual report, Press search

Direct sales in total sales

直接销售占总销售比例

SASAC requires the three major Chinese airlines to raise its direct sales portion to 50% by 2018

国资委要求中国三大航空公司在 2018 年以前将其直接销售比例提高到 50%

LCC

廉价航空公司

FSC

全服务航空公司

%, 2018

94

91

63

45

39

35

25

25

20

18

14

23

33

26

Ryanair 瑞安航空

Lufthansa 汉莎航空

Copa Airlines 巴拿马航空

Spring Airlines 春秋航空

Alaska Airlines 阿拉斯加航空

Russia Airlines 俄罗斯航空

Malaysia Airlines 马来西亚航空

Cathay Pacific 国泰航空

China Southern 中国南方航空

Air China 中国国际航空 50

China Eastern 中国东方航空

Airline Websites and App

航空公司网站及移动端

43

40

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This probably due to the limited function of airline website and apps and unsatisfied reliability

可能因为航空公司网站和应用的功能有限且可靠度不令人满意

SOURCE: App Store, company website

Can not cancel the

pending order

无法取消待支付订单

Some websites often crashes, or the app gives

errors

官网有些时候会崩溃, APP会报错

Can not find flight that booked by other channels

both from website and APP

官网和手机APP上都找不到别的渠道订的航班信息

There are some missing codeshare flights on its official

website

官网上找不到一些共享航班信息

Ctrip search: HKG-PVG, has codeshare flight with Hong

Kong Airlines

Exactly same date and O&D on ceair.com: this flight is

not shown

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And undercutting from other channels …

其他渠道减价出售 …

SOURCE: Search on 5 Jun 2019

1 Departing on Jun 18 and return on Jun 26, economy class

▪ Rebating (some) commissions/ incentive, if

they are offered

▪ 如果他们获得佣金/奖励，则提供（部分）回扣

▪ Rebadging corporate fares for customers not

employed by the organization (especially

smaller agencies, less of an issue with OTAs)

▪ 为不属于组织员工的客户提供公司内部价（尤其是小代理公司，这个问题在 OTA 中较少出现）

▪ Taking an actual loss on the air ticket,

knowing that ~50% of customers will also buy

a hotel or car-hire, which offer much higher

commission rates

▪ 机票实际亏本，因为了解到 ~50% 的顾客还会订酒店或租车，这些业务的佣金更高

How and why?

为什么会这样？

Exactly same flights on ceair.com: CNY 6,813

ceair.com 上完全一样的航班: CNY 6,813

Fliggy search: PVG-BCN-PVG: CNY6,586

飞猪网搜索：PVG-BCN-PVG: CNY6,5861

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In contrast, OTAs like Ctrip provides comprehensive service and price options with user friendly

interface

相比之下，携程等 OTA 提供全面的服务和价格选项，使用用户友好界面

SOURCE: Mobile Apps

1 Includes other instant messgage tools

Company 公司

Multi cities/

stopover

booking

多城市/中转预订

Change

of flight

航班改签

Single/

Return trip

booking

单程/

返程预订

Special

low fare

特价机票

Duty free

shopping

免税购物

Airport

pick up

service

接机服务

Selecting

seat

选座

Hotel

booking

酒店预定

Airport

infor-

mation

机场信息

Flight

status

航班状态

Destination

information

目的地信息

Redeem

ticket

机票兑换

Upgrade

with miles

里程升舱

Review of

FFP

account

查看FFP帐号

Redeem

other

product

兑换其他产品

Wechat1

微信1

Phone

电话

Flight 航班 Ancillary 辅助 Information 信息 FFP

Customer service

客户服务

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Not owning customer means…

未拥有客户意味着…

Subject to fierce price-only competition,

customers shop around

由于价格竞争激烈，客户购买时货比三家

Product commoditized

产品商品化Pay GDS and other fees on bookings

预定需要支付 GDS 和其他费用

Don’t get deep customer insights and can’t

communicate directly to customer with offers

未深入了解客户且无法直接与客户沟通报价

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11McKinsey & CompanySOURCE: Annual report, press search

29

91

industry

行业spring

春秋航空

19

36

industry

行业spring

春秋航空

There is hope: some carriers like Spring Air are 90% online

希望犹存：春秋航空等部分航空公司 90% 的机票在线销售

Spring Airline’s online booking share，%

春秋航空在线机票预订占比, %

Direct B2C online

%

直销在线B2C

%

Mobile

%

移动终端%

19

81

1

98

1年 Spring Air from shanty agency …

春秋航空从小售票窗口开始 …

… to online and mobile sales leader

… 发展成为在线和手机销售领导者

2018

2018年

37

6455

35

2836

28

8 9

2016 17 2018

Offline booking 线下销售

Mobile booking 移动端销售

Other online booking 其他在线销售

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Move

customers

online

转移客户到线上

Improve user

experience

改进用户体验

Fix the

ecommerce

website

准备网站

3 steps to become

a leading airline

in ecommerce Key levers

1 Fix technical problems on website 解决网站技术问题

3 Improve payment methods 改进支付方式和流程

2 Ensure basic user-friendliness 保证基本的用户友好程度

4 Introduce service fees or reduce incentives in higher cost

channels

对高成本的渠道，引入预订服务费或者削减销售激励

5 Create specific website products/pricing/services 创建专属于网站的产品/价格/服务

6 Make cross-channel referrals (from call center, ticket office

to website)

进行跨渠道推介（从呼叫中心和售票处推荐至网站）

7 Drive SME share with SME specific products 通过针对中小企业客户的产品来提升其线上销售

8 ATL promotion for airline’s website 线上广告推广航空公司官网

9 BTL promotion for airline’s website 线下广告推广航空公司官网

10 Create an Amazon-like, personalized online retail

experience on airline’s website

建立一个像亚马逊一样的个性化的电商销售体验

There are 10 levers for airlines to actively drive customers online

将客户转移至线上渠道可以通过十大杠杆来实现

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Achieved results 成果Levers pulled by the airline 航空公司推动的杠杆

Capacity

share

份额57% 39%

Distribution channel mix

分销渠道混合

Fix the

website

准备网站

Move

customers

online

转移客户到线上

Improve user

experience

提升用户体验

▪ Create website-specific pricing: 创建面向网站的定价：– Focused on transparent pricing strategy, including “lowest fare

guarantee” 注重透明的定价策略，包括“最低票价担保”

– Provided fare products only available through website, e.g. Flight Passes

提供仅可通过 Flight Passes 等网站获得的机票产品▪ Service features: Offered easy-to-use value-add services on website to

encourage customers to use website, e.g. Web check-in, online APIS

▪ 服务特点：在网站上提供易用的增值服务，鼓励客户使用网站，比如网上办理登机，在线 APIS

▪ Create website-specific ancillary products: such as hotel, car, insurance

▪ 创建面向网站的辅助产品：比如酒店、汽车、保险▪ Marketing focus on website, e.g. frequent mentioning of website in print

media and digital advertisement (Websaver)

▪ 营销注重网站的宣传，比如在纸媒和电子广告 (Websaver) 上反复提到网站

▪ Ensure basic user-friendliness: Developed user friendly web platforms for

both consumers and agents

▪ 确保基本的用户友好度：为消费者和代理商开发用户友好的网络平台

▪ Air Canada has achieved ecommerce penetration of

▪ 加拿大航空已实现电子商务渗透– 66% for domestic flights

– 54% for international flights

– 国内航空 66%

– 国际航空 54%

% of passengers, 2008

乘客 %，2008 年

And, it’s possible to shift share: Air Canada achieved a high

direct penetration in both its domestic and regional network

而且，可能出现份额转移：加拿大航空在其国内网络和区域网络都实现了较高的直接渗透率

SOURCE: Air Canada annual report 2008

资料来源：2008年加拿大航空公司年报

66 54

26 36

Indirect

间接渠道

Other

direct

其他直接渠道

Canada - domestic

加拿大 – 国内

Internet

互联网

Canada and USA -

transborder

加拿大和美国 – 跨境

810

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So, what should carrier do 那么，航空公司需要做些什么

Invest in own technology, or, partner and outsource if

cannot support

投资开发自己的技术，或者如果无法支持则寻找合作伙伴和外包资源

Ensure total reliability and great user experience on mobile and

web

确保手机应用和网页的总体可靠性和良好的用户体验

Expand to support all payment methods: Alipay, offline cash etc.

扩展到支持所有支付方法：支付宝、线下现金支付等等

Offer “own app” specials: fares; advance seat selection earlier;

earlier online check in; bonus PhoenixMiles

提供“自家应用”特别关照：票价优惠；提前选座；提前在线办理登记手续；常旅客计划奖励

Reduce commissions to zero in

home markets

在国内市场将佣金降至零

Best rate guarantee (which is not a real guarantee and

helps with enforcement)

最优惠价格保证（并非真正的担保而是为了帮助实施）

Clamp down on any agencies offering fares below published by

blacklisting

打压提供低于所公布价格的任何代理，将其列入黑名单

0%

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Invest in own technology, or, partner and outsource if cannot support: Delta spent $140 million

investing into app and website

投资开发自己的技术，或者，如果无法支持则寻找合作伙伴和外包资源：达美航空投资 1.4 亿美元开发应用和网站

Possibility to ‘customize’ products,

e.g. 可“自定义”产品，比如▪ Connecting via a certain airport

▪ 通过某个机场连接▪ Setting up connection time limit

▪ 设定连接时间限制▪ Select seat type

▪ 选择座位类型▪ Wifi onboard

▪ 机上 Wi-Fi

Flights marketed as ‘products’, and heavily focus on

features, e.g.航班作为“产品”营销，尤其注重以下特点▪ Availability of onboard entrainment system

▪ 提供机载娱乐系统▪ Flights with flat beds are indicated

▪ 注明提供可平躺座位的航班▪ Flights with wifi access 提供 Wi-Fi 连接的航班

Integration with social media to

increase customer ownership

与社交媒体互动增加客户数量

Rich axillary products &

services, combined with

upselling and cross selling, e.g.

丰富的辅助产品和服务，联合向上销售和交叉销售，比如▪ Economy comfort seats经济舒

适舱▪ Extra bag

▪ 超重行李

Website provides

customized

interface on mobile

and iPad

网站在手机和 iPad

上显示自定义界面

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Rated as one of the best airlines which effectively

use website to up-sell customers by IdeaWorks,

Pegasus presented its ancillaries with “compelling

visuals”.

被评为最佳航空公司之一，有效利用网站通过IdeaWorks对客户进行追加销售，飞马航空以“引人注目的视觉表现”展示其附加产品

EVA Air allows passengers to pre-order inflight duty-

free products on their online shopping portal.

长荣航空让乘客可以在其在线购物页面提前预定机上免税产品

Spirit offers multiple brand car rental options, and

retail incentives with bonus frequent flier points.

Spirit航空提供多个品牌的租车服务，和有常旅客奖励积分的零售激励

Flight add-ons 航班附加产品 Complementary products 补充产品 Targeted promotion 定向促销

At Norwegian airline Wideroe, agents in the call

center get access to the full history of the customer,

including their recent visits to the website or

promotional emails they have opened. Therefore

they are in a powerful position to then recommend

the most appropriate ancillary service.

在挪威的威德罗航空，呼叫中心的客服代表可以查看乘客的全部预定历史，包括他们最近对网站的访问或者打开过的促销邮件。这样他们就可以充分利用这些信息来推销最合适的附加服务

Airline website could help streamline passenger booking experience while up-sell extra products

航空公司网站可以帮助简化客户订票体验，同时追加销售其他产品

SOURCE: Skift, Fortune, company website

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Expand to support all major payments

扩展支持所有主要的在线支付方式

SOURCE: analysys, company website

▪ Most Chinese airlines has expanded to support all major payment

大部分中国的航空公司都支持所有主要的支付方式

46

32

10

7

6

AliPay

支付宝

WeChat Pay

腾讯金融

Others

其它

UnionPay

银联商务

99Bill

快钱

China’s third party payment

中国的第三方支付市场

%, 2018 Q1-Q3,

CNY 1,571 thousand bn in total

1 Including mobile and website payment

▪ However, we should also add other major payments for foreign

customers

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Offer “own app” specials: fares, information, service and miles

为“自有app”提供特别服务：机票、信息、服务和里程

SOURCE: company website, airlinetrends.com, Press search

Fares

机票

Information

信息

Service

信息

Bonus miles

里程积分

Initiatives 举措

▪ Hilton offers triple points exclusively for guests booking through Hilton HHonors App by

Dec 2016

▪ 到2016年12月，希尔顿为通过希尔顿荣誉会员App预定的客人提供专属三倍积分

▪ Virgin Australia’s app could support passbook to provide mobile boarding pass, and has

a digital version of the Velocity card

▪ 维珍澳大利亚的app支持passbook，提供手机登机牌，并且还有Velocity卡的电子版

▪ Delta’s app can show # of available seat when booking via app, and passengers can

check the standby list, view the airport map and track the baggage

▪ 通过app订票时，达美航空的app可以显示剩余座位数量，而且乘客可以检查等候列表、查看机场地图并跟踪行李

▪ Etihad offers 10% off for passengers booking in Business or Economy Class through

the mobile app before Nov 30 2016 and travel before 31 March 2017

▪ 对使用手机app于2016年11月30日前预定公务或经济舱、并在2017年3月31日前出行的乘客，阿提哈德航空提供10%的折扣

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0%

10%

2%

4%

6%

8%

12%

1994 96 200098 02 04 06

1 Systemwide for American, Delta, Northwest, US Airways, United and Continental

1. 美国航空、达美航空、西北航空、全美航空、联合航空和大陆航空全系统适用

SOURCE: Form 41 via BACK Aviation Solutions; SalomanSmithBarney; press

U.S. airlines reduced commissions to zero over a 15 year period

美国的航空公司在 15 年内将佣金降为零

Average Commission Expense as a percent of revenues for major U.S. carriers1

美国主要航空公司平均佣金支出占其收入的百分比1

Feb. 1995: 10% cap on

commissions; $50 cap on RT

domestic

1995年2月：佣金最高10%；RT国内最高50美元

Aug. 1997:

8% cap on

commissions

1997年8月：佣金最高8%

Oct. 1999: 5% cap on

commissions; $20 cap on RT

domestic ticket

1999年10月：佣金最高 5%；RT

国内机票最高20美元

Mar. 2002:

End of base

commissions

2002年3月：不再支付基础佣金

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Critical to ensure the lowest (standard) price is available through your website

关键是确保您的网站提供最低（标准）价格

American Airlines example 以美国航空为例

▪ Need to develop a reputation for the online channel

that it always offers best pricing (no higher than the

best fare from any other channel)

▪ 需要为在线渠道建立总是提供最优惠价格的声誉（不高于任何其他渠道的最优惠价格）

▪ Customers finding better deals elsewhere, even by

a few dollars, will shop around for their future

purchases and you lose the opportunity for a

captive customer

▪ 客户在别处发现更优惠的机票，即便只有几美元，也会使得他们将来购买时货比三家，这样您会失去俘获客户的机会

▪ Notable exceptions: corporate fares, group fares

and package deals (where the air ticket price is

never transparent for the consumer)

▪ 值得注意的例外情况：公司内部价、团体价和打包优惠价（机票价格对消费者不透明）

▪ Enables you to offer “best price guarantees”

▪ 支持您提供“最优惠价格保证”

▪ Refunds and rewards for customers if find lower price for

same flight in other channels

▪ 如果客户发现同一航班在其他渠道购买的价格更加优惠则给客户退款并奖赏

▪ Helps with policing of your agency agreements

▪ 协助监管您的代理协议

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Travel intermediaries still has its value proposition

旅游中介机构仍然有其价值主张

SOURCE:

Value-adding activities of tour operators 旅行社的增值活动

Related tour operator activities相关旅行社活动

Value added ofintermediaries旅游中介机构的附加价值

Supplier Advantages供应商优势

Customer Advantages客户优势

Convenience 方便▪ Simplify bookings 简化预定流程▪ Reduce search costs by bundling products and filtering information

▪ 通过捆绑产品和过滤信息降低搜索成本

Price differentiation 价格差异化

▪ Address specific customer segments

应对特定的细分客户▪ Hide price of single components through packaging

通过打包出售隐藏单个产品的价格

Risk reduction 降低风险

▪ Perform yield management in case of underutilization

利用率较低时进行产量管理▪ Take on inventory risk (selectively)

承担库存风险（选择性地进行）

Effective marketing 有效营销outsourcing 外包

▪ Promote and market products based on knowledge about specific local market

基于对特定本地市场的了解推广和营销产品▪ Provide expertise on customer needs 提供专业知识满足客户需求

Low product costs降低产品成本

▪ Bundle buying power to reduce rates 捆绑购买可降低价格▪ Increase efficiency in logistics through economies of scale to (e.g., bus transfer)

通过规模经济（比如总线传送）提升后勤效率

Risk reduction 降低风险

▪ Verify and guarantee product quality, especially for hotels

确认并保证产品质量，尤其是酒店▪ Resolve issues during holiday in native language

在节假日期间使用当地语言解决问题

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We have unparalleled experience delivering impact in all sectors of travel distribution – selected

examples

我们拥有丰富的经验，可对旅游分销的各部门施加影响 – 精选案例

Top 5 international hotel group

5大国际酒店集团

Top 10 multi-brand hotel franchise group

10大多品牌连锁酒店集团

Multi-hotel consortium

多酒店联合体

International car rental agency

国际租车代理

International airline

国际航空公司

International airline

国际航空公司

European tour operator

欧洲旅行社

Online travel agent

在线旅行社

Cruise line

邮轮

Identified 33% reduction in distribution costs; $100M+ in additional revenue分销成本降低33%；收入增加1亿美元以上

Meaningful reductions in commissions and changes to terms to lay groundwork for increase in direct channel share佣金减少和条款变更意义重大，为增加直接渠道的份额打下基础

4-5% direct share increase and 3 year distribution roadmap直接渠道份额增加4-5%，3年分销路线图

40+ pt share shift to low-cost direct channel40+ %份额转移到低成本的直接渠道

Annual revenue growth increased by 4 p.p. per year for 3 consecutive years年收入增长连续3年每年增长4%

Built OTA and metasearch alternative to drive greater hotel direct bookings建立OTA和元搜索替代方案，推动更大范围的酒店直接预定

Online bookings on track to double between 2012 and 2015在线预定步入正轨，在2012年和2015年期间翻番

Identified a $350M opportunity and built the team to capture it发现3.5亿美元的商机并打造团队抓住商机

Reduced commissions and sources of competitive search-term / brand bidding佣金减少，竞争搜索项/品牌报价来源减少

Impact 影响