Future of airline distribution...

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Future of airline distribution

航空公司分销的未来

2016中国航空营销高峰论坛

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY 专有机密信息Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company

is strictly prohibited 未经麦肯锡公司特别许可，严禁使用本资料

2016年10月25日

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China has become the largest ecommerce market in the world

中国已成为全球最大的电子商务市场

SOURCE: eMarketer

1 Online B2C plus C2C market 2 2013-2015E

1 在线B2C加C2C市场 2 2013年-2015年初

3 year CAGR2 %

3 年 CAGR2 %

Portion in total retail %

占总零售额的比例 %

China 中国

$426.3 bn

4263 亿美元

33.5% 10.1%

USA 美国

$305.7 bn

3057 亿美元

12.8% 6.5%

United

Kingdom

英国

$82.0 bn 820 亿美元

15.5% 13.0%

Japan

日本

$70.8 bn 708 亿美元

13.0% 4.9%

Germany

德国

$63.4 bn 634 亿美元

19.0% 7.3%

France

法国

$38.4 bn 384 亿美元

11.6% 4.6%

Russia

俄罗斯

$17.5 bn 175 亿美元

16.1% 2.2%

Brazil

巴西

$16.3 bn 163 亿美元

18.7% 3.8%

eCommerce retail1 market transaction

电子商务零售1市场交易

bn USD

十亿美元

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Internet users has mobile commerce

experience

互联网用户有移动商务经验

60%

In-store mobile researchers end up buying

elsewhere

手机用户到店研究最后从别处购买

84%Savvy omnichannel

shoppers

精明的全渠道买家

Extremely open to

mobile

尤其面向手机用户开放

Rising interest in

personalization

越来越关注个性化

Product search moving

to commerce platforms

产品研究转移到商业平台

Shopping journey start from eCommerce

sites (Search engine only 17%)

购物旅程从电子商务网站开始（搜索引擎仅占17%）

56%

Expressed interest to customize /

personalize products online before they buy

购买之前在线表达对定制/个性化产品的兴趣

33%

SOURCE: Mckinsey iConsumer Survey 2015

Chinese consumers are leading the charge to embrace Digital

中国消费者率先拥抱数字化

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Despite strong discount expectation, travel online services actually stimulate

consumers’ total travel spend

尽管有望获得较高折扣，在线旅游服务实际上会刺激消费者的旅游总体消费

Same as traditional price

与传统价格一样

<5% premium 溢价少于5%

59

Must be lower than

traditional price

必须低于传统价格

5-10% premium 溢价为5-10%

>10% premium 溢价超过10%

旅游

13

13

105

~60% of consumers expect lower price from

travel online services ...

~60%消费者期望从在线旅游服务获得更低的价格 …

... but 77% indicate their total travel spend

increased

… 但 77%的消费者指出其旅游总体消费增加

What is the highest price you are willing to pay

for travel online services?

您愿意为在线旅游服务支付的最高价格是多少？

1

4

18

61

13

3

增加一点

减少很多

增加很多

开始旅游

减少一点

不变

SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer China 2016

% of travel online users, N = 188

在线旅游服务用户 %，N = 188

% of travel online users, N = 188

在线旅游服务用户 %，N = 188

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Air ticket online penetration rate is catching up with US and Europe but the

airline direct sales percentage still lags behind

机票在线渗透率赶超美国和欧洲，但航空公司直接销售的百分比仍然落后

SOURCE: iResearch, PhocusWright, China Southern 2015 annual report, Air China 2015 annual report; China Eastern 2015 annual report

60

0

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

13 201514122011

Air ticket sales online penetration rate, 2010-2015

2010年-2015年机票销售在线渗透率Direct sales in total sales

直接销售占总销售比例

LCC

廉价航空公司

“innovators”

“创新型航空公司”

FSC

全服务航空公司

25

25

27

37

30

37

41

40

44

60

90

73

87

China Eastern 中国东方航空

China Southern 中国南方航空

American Airlines 美国航空

Russia Airlines 俄罗斯航空

Malaysia Airlines 马来西亚航空

Cathay Pacific 国泰航空

Airline Websites

航空公司网站

Delta 达美航空

Air China 中国国际航空

Spirit Air 精灵航空

Ryanair 瑞安航空

Alaska Airlines 阿拉斯加航空

100

Copa Airlines 巴拿马航空

Spring Airlines 春秋航空

Southwest Airlines 西南航空

SASAC requires the three major Chinese airlines to raise its direct sales portion to 50% by 2018

国资委要求中国三大航空公司在 2018 年以前将其直接销售比例提高到 50%

Europe

欧洲China

中国US

美国

%, 2015

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This probably due to the limited function of airline website and apps and

unsatisfied reliability

可能因为航空公司网站和应用的功能有限且可靠度不令人满意

SOURCE: App Store, company website

When search for “multi city/stopover” on HNA Chinese website, the

website turn into English website, which is not is still round trip booking

choice, with lots of duplicated characters in lower page

在海航集团中文网站搜索“多个城市/中转”时，网站变成英文网站，而并非仍然显示往返行程预定选项，页面下方显示大量重复的文字

Both Air China and

China Southern

Airline’s apps cannot

book multi city trip,

only China Eastern

can

中国国际航空和中国南方航空的应用都不支持多个城市预定，只有东方航空支持

When going to Air China

English version for China,

errors occur 1

从中国登录国航英文网页时出现页面错误1

1 Errors happened in Aug 2012

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And undercutting from other channels …

其他渠道减价出售 …

SOURCE: Search on 24 Oct 2016

▪ Rebating (some) commissions/

incentive, if they are offered

▪ 如果他们获得佣金/奖励，则提供（部分）回扣

▪ Rebadging corporate fares for

customers not employed by the

organization (especially smaller

agencies, less of an issue with OTAs)

▪ 为不属于组织员工的客户提供公司内部价（尤其是小代理公司，这个问题在OTA 中较少出现）

▪ Taking an actual loss on the air ticket,

knowing that ~50% of customers will

also buy a hotel or car-hire, which offer

much higher commission rates

▪ 机票实际亏本，因为了解到 ~50% 的顾

客还会订酒店或租车，这些业务的佣金更高

Exactly same flights on ceair.com: CNY 2,810

ceair.com 上完全一样的航班: CNY 2,810

Qunar search: PVG-SIN-PVG: CNY2,673

去哪儿网搜索：PVG-SIN-PVG: CNY2,6731

How and why?

为什么会这样？

1 Departing on Nov 19 and return on Nov 26, economy class

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In contrast, OTAs like Ctrip provides comprehensive service and price

options with user friendly interface

相比之下，携程等 OTA 提供全面的服务和价格选项，使用用户友好界面

SOURCE: Mobile Apps

1 Includes other instant messgage tools

Multi cities/

stopover

booking

多城市/中转预订

Change

of flight

航班改签

Single/

Return trip

booking

单程/

返程预订

Special

low fare

特价机票

Duty

free

shop-

ping

免税购物

Airport

pick up

service

接机服务

Select-

ing seat

选座

Hotel

book-

ing

酒店预定

Airport

infor-

mation

机场信息

Flight

status

航班状态

Destina-

tion

informa-

tion

目的地信息

Redeem

ticket

机票兑换

Upgrade

with

miles

里程升舱

Review

of FFP

account

查看FFP

帐号

Redeem

other

product

兑换其他产品

Wechat1

微信1Company 公司Phone

电话

Flight 航班 Ancillary 辅助 Information 信息 FFP

Customer service

客户服务

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Not owning customer means…

未拥有客户意味着…

Subject to fierce price-only

competition, customers

shop around

由于价格竞争激烈，客户购买时货比三家

Product commoditized

产品商品化Pay GDS and other fees on

bookings

预定需要支付 GDS 和其他费用

Don’t get deep customer insights

and can’t communicate directly to

customer with offers

未深入了解客户且无法直接与客户沟通报价

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10McKinsey & CompanySOURCE: PhocusWright, annual report, press search

13.817.0

20.323.9 24.9

3.0

6.4

11.3

13

23.3

18.4

1.4

2012

14.0

14 15

30.3

0.2

2016

36.2

168

16

CAGR

%

China’s other online booking 中国的其他在线预定

China’s travel mobile booking 中国的旅游手机预定

China’s online travel booking market

中国的在线旅游预订市场

85

25

spring

春秋航空industry

行业

24

3

industry

行业spring

春秋航空

B2C online

%

在线B2C

%

Mobile/tablet

%

手机/平板%

There is hope: some carriers like Spring Air are 90% online

希望犹存：春秋航空等部分航空公司 90% 的机票在线销售

US$ bln

十亿美元

19

81

1

98

1年

Spring Air from shanty agency …

春秋航空从小售票窗口开始 …

… to online and mobile sales leader

… 发展成为在线和手机销售领导者

20

15

2

01

5年

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Move

customers

online

转移客户到线上

Improve user

experience

改进用户体验

Fix the

ecommerce

website

准备网站

3 steps to become

a leading airline

in ecommerce Key levers

Fix technical problems on website1

Ensure basic user-friendliness 2

Improve payment methods3

Introduce service fees or reduce incentives in

higher cost channels4

Create specific website

products/pricing/services5

Make cross-channel referrals (from call center,

ticket office to website)6

ATL promotion for airline’s website8

BTL promotion for airline’s website 9

Create an Amazon-like, personalized online

retail experience on airline’s website

Drive SME share with SME specific products7

10

解决网站技术问题

改进支付方式和流程

保证基本的用户友好程度

对高成本的渠道，引入预订服务费或者削减销售激励

创建专属于网站的产品/价格/服务

进行跨渠道推介（从呼叫中心和售票处推荐至网站）

通过针对中小企业客户的产品来提升其线上销售

线上广告推广航空公司官网

线下广告推广航空公司官网

建立一个像亚马逊一样的个性化的电商销售体验

There are 10 levers for airlines to actively drive customers online

将客户转移至线上渠道可以通过十大杠杆来实现

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And, it’s possible to shift share: Air Canada achieved a high

direct penetration in both its domestic and regional network

而且，可能出现份额转移：加拿大航空在其国内网络和区域网络都实现了较高的直接渗透率

SOURCE: Air Canada annual report 2008

资料来源：2008年加拿大航空公司年报

6654

26 36

Canada -

domestic

加拿大 – 国内

8

Indirect

间接渠道

10

Canada

and USA -

transborder

加拿大和美国 – 跨境

Internet

互联网

Other

direct

其他直接渠道

Achieved results 成果Levers pulled by the airline 航空公司推动的杠杆

Capacity

share

份额57% 39%

Distribution channel mix

分销渠道混合

Fix the

website

准备网站

Move

customers

online

转移客户到线上

Improve

user

experience

提升用户体验

▪ Create website-specific pricing: 创建面向网站的定价：

– Focused on transparent pricing strategy, including “lowest fare

guarantee” 注重透明的定价策略，包括“最低票价担保”

– Provided fare products only available through website, e.g. Flight

Passes 提供仅可通过 Flight Passes 等网站获得的机票产品

▪ Service features: Offered easy-to-use value-add services on website

to encourage customers to use website, e.g. Web check-in, online

APIS

▪ 服务特点：在网站上提供易用的增值服务，鼓励客户使用网站，比如网上办理登机，在线 APIS

▪ Create website-specific ancillary products: such as hotel, car,

insurance

▪ 创建面向网站的辅助产品：比如酒店、汽车、保险

▪ Marketing focus on website, e.g. frequent mentioning of website in

print media and digital advertisement (Websaver)

▪ 营销注重网站的宣传，比如在纸媒和电子广告 (Websaver) 上反复提到网站

▪ Ensure basic user-friendliness: Developed user friendly web

platforms for both consumers and agents

▪ 确保基本的用户友好度：为消费者和代理商开发用户友好的网络平台

▪ Air Canada has achieved ecommerce

penetration of

▪ 加拿大航空已实现电子商务渗透

– 66% for domestic flights

– 54% for international flights

– 国内航空 66%

– 国际航空 54%

% of passengers, 2008

乘客 %，2008 年

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So, what should carrier do 那么，航空公司需要做些什么

Invest in own technology, or, partner and outsource if

cannot support

投资开发自己的技术，或者如果无法支持则寻找合作伙伴和外包资源

Ensure total reliability and great user experience on

mobile and web

确保手机应用和网页的总体可靠性和良好的用户体验

Expand to support all payment methods: Alipay, offline

cash etc.

扩展到支持所有支付方法：支付宝、线下现金支付等等

Offer “own app” specials: fares; advance seat selection

earlier; earlier online check in; bonus PhoenixMiles

提供“自家应用”特别关照：票价优惠；提前选座；提前在线办理登记手续；常旅客计划奖励

Reduce commissions to zero in

home markets

在国内市场将佣金降至零

Best rate guarantee (which is not a real guarantee and

helps with enforcement)

最优惠价格保证（并非真正的担保而是为了帮助实施）

Clamp down on any agencies offering fares below

published by blacklisting

打压提供低于所公布价格的任何代理，将其列入黑名单

0%

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Invest in own technology, or, partner and outsource if cannot support: Delta

spent $140 million investing into app and website

投资开发自己的技术，或者，如果无法支持则寻找合作伙伴和外包资源：达美航空投资 1.4 亿美元开发应用和网站

Possibility to ‘customize’

products, e.g. 可“自定义”产品，比如▪ Connecting via a certain airport

▪ 通过某个机场连接▪ Setting up connection time limit

▪ 设定连接时间限制▪ Select seat type

▪ 选择座位类型▪ Wifi onboard

▪ 机上 Wi-Fi

Flights marketed as ‘products’, and heavily focus on

features, e.g.航班作为“产品”营销，尤其注重以下特点▪ Availability of onboard entrainment system

▪ 提供机载娱乐系统▪ Flights with flat beds are indicated

▪ 注明提供可平躺座位的航班▪ Flights with wifi access 提供 Wi-Fi 连接的航班

Integration with social media

to increase customer

ownership

与社交媒体互动增加客户数量

Rich axillary products &

services, combined with

upselling and cross selling,

e.g. 丰富的辅助产品和服务，联合向上销售和交叉销售，比如▪ Economy comfort seats经济

舒适舱▪ Extra bag

▪ 超重行李

Website provides

customized

interface on

mobile and iPad

网站在手机和 iPad

上显示自定义界面

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Airline website could help streamline passenger booking experience while

up-sell extra products

航空公司网站可以帮助简化客户订票体验，同时追加销售其他产品

SOURCE: Skift, Fortune, company website

Rated as one of the best airlines which

effectively use website to up-sell customers by

IdeaWorks, Pegasus presented its ancillaries

with “compelling visuals”.

被评为最佳航空公司之一，有效利用网站通过IdeaWorks对客户进行追加销售，飞马航空以“引人注目的视觉表现”展示其附加产品

EVA Air allows passengers to pre-order inflight

duty-free products on their online shopping

portal.

长荣航空让乘客可以在其在线购物页面提前预定机上免税产品

Spirit offers multiple brand car rental options,

and retail incentives with bonus frequent flier

points.

Spirit航空提供多个品牌的租车服务，和有常旅客奖励积分的零售激励

Flight add-ons 航班附加产品 Complementary products 补充产品 Targeted promotion 定向促销

At Norwegian airline Wideroe, agents in the

call center get access to the full history of the

customer, including their recent visits to the

website or promotional emails they have

opened. Therefore they are in a powerful

position to then recommend the most

appropriate ancillary service.

在挪威的威德罗航空，呼叫中心的客服代表可以查看乘客的全部预定历史，包括他们最近对网站的访问或者打开过的促销邮件。这样他们就可以充分利用这些信息来推销最合适的附加服务

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Expand to support all major payments

扩展支持所有主要的在线支付方式

SOURCE: iResearch, company website

▪ Most Chinese airlines has expanded to

support all major payment

大部分中国的航空公司都支持所有主要的支付方式

9银联商务

其他银行

15

3

7

京东钱包1

3

其他2

快钱易宝

银联商务财付通(微信)

24

37支付宝

China’s third party payment

中国的第三方支付市场

%, 12 months ended June 2016,

CNY 5.06 bn in total

Offline payment

(线下支付）

Online payment1

(线上支付）

1 Including mobile and website payment

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Offer “own app” specials: fares, information, service and miles

为“自有app”提供特别服务：机票、信息、服务和里程

SOURCE: company website, airlinetrends.com, Press search

Initiatives 举措

Fares

机票

Information

信息

Service

信息

Bonus miles

里程积分

▪ Hilton offers triple points exclusively for guests booking

through Hilton HHonors App by Dec 2016

▪ 到2016年12月，希尔顿为通过希尔顿荣誉会员App预定的客人提供专属三倍积分

▪ Virgin Australia’s app could support passbook to

provide mobile boarding pass, and has a digital version

of the Velocity card

▪ 维珍澳大利亚的app支持passbook，提供手机登机牌，并且还有Velocity卡的电子版

▪ Delta’s app can show # of available seat when booking

via app, and passengers can check the standby list,

view the airport map and track the baggage

▪ 通过app订票时，达美航空的app可以显示剩余座位数量，而且乘客可以检查等候列表、查看机场地图并跟踪行李

▪ Etihad offers 10% off for passengers booking in

Business or Economy Class through the mobile app

before Nov 30 2016 and travel before 31 March 2017

▪ 对使用手机app于2016年11月30日前预定公务或经济舱、并在2017年3月31日前出行的乘客，阿提哈德航空提供10%的折扣

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6%

4%

2%

0%

8%

12%

10%

062000 0496 02981994

1 Systemwide for American, Delta, Northwest, US Airways, United and Continental

1. 美国航空、达美航空、西北航空、全美航空、联合航空和大陆航空全系统适用

SOURCE: Form 41 via BACK Aviation Solutions; SalomanSmithBarney; press

U.S. airlines reduced commissions to zero over a 15 year period

美国的航空公司在 15 年内将佣金降为零

Average Commission Expense as a percent of revenues for major U.S. carriers1

美国主要航空公司平均佣金支出占其收入的百分比1

Feb. 1995: 10% cap on

commissions; $50 cap on

RT domestic

1995年2月：佣金最高10%；RT国内最高50美元

Aug. 1997:

8% cap on

commissions

1997年8月：佣金最高8%

Oct. 1999: 5% cap on

commissions; $20 cap

on RT domestic ticket

1999年10月：佣金最高5%；RT国内机票最高20

美元

Mar. 2002:

End of base

commissions

2002年3月：不再支付基础佣金

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Critical to ensure the lowest (standard) price is available through your

website

关键是确保您的网站提供最低（标准）价格

American Airlines example 以美国航空为例▪ Need to develop a reputation for the

online channel that it always offers best

pricing (no higher than the best fare

from any other channel)

▪ 需要为在线渠道建立总是提供最优惠价格的声誉（不高于任何其他渠道的最优惠价格）

▪ Customers finding better deals

elsewhere, even by a few dollars, will

shop around for their future purchases

and you lose the opportunity for a

captive customer

▪ 客户在别处发现更优惠的机票，即便只有几美元，也会使得他们将来购买时货比三家，这样您会失去俘获客户的机会

▪ Notable exceptions: corporate fares,

group fares and package deals (where

the air ticket price is never transparent

for the consumer)

▪ 值得注意的例外情况：公司内部价、团体价和打包优惠价（机票价格对消费者不透明）

▪ Enables you to offer “best price guarantees”

▪ 支持您提供“最优惠价格保证”

▪ Refunds and rewards for customers if find lower

price for same flight in other channels

▪ 如果客户发现同一航班在其他渠道购买的价格更加优惠则给客户退款并奖赏

▪ Helps with policing of your agency agreements

▪ 协助监管您的代理协议

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Travel intermediaries still has its value proposition

旅游中介机构仍然有其价值主张

SOURCE:

Low product costs降低产品成本

Convenience 方便

Risk reduction 降低风险

Effective marketing 有效营销outsourcing 外包

Risk reduction 降低风险

Price differentiation 价格差异化

Value added only partially changing through the Internet网络预定仅部分改变附加价值

Value-adding activities of tour operators 旅行社的增值活动

Related tour operator activities相关旅行社活动

Value added ofintermediaries旅游中介机构的附加价值

Supplier Advantages供应商优势

Customer Advantages客户优势

▪ recognize shifts in agencies:

likely decline of channel over

time, but still valuable for

creating packages and

tapping into some market

segments. Some

convergence of online and

offline models. [chart from

your PD]

认识到代理商的转变：渠道可能日益衰退，但是在创建产品包和进入某些细分市场时仍有价值。聚集线上和线下模型。[你在 PD 上的图表]

▪ Tour operators can create

significant value added for

both suppliers and

customers

旅行社可以为供应商和客户创造大量附加价值

▪ Simplify bookings 简化预定流程▪ Reduce search costs by bundling products and filtering

information

▪ 通过捆绑产品和过滤信息降低搜索成本

▪ Perform yield management in case of underutilization

利用率较低时进行产量管理▪ Take on inventory risk (selectively)

承担库存风险（选择性地进行）

▪ Address specific customer segments

应对特定的细分客户▪ Hide price of single components through packaging

通过打包出售隐藏单个产品的价格

▪ Promote and market products based on knowledge about

specific local market

基于对特定本地市场的了解推广和营销产品▪ Provide expertise on customer needs 提供专业知识满足客户需求

▪ Bundle buying power to reduce rates 捆绑购买可降低价格▪ Increase efficiency in logistics through economies of scale to

(e.g., bus transfer)

通过规模经济（比如总线传送）提升后勤效率

▪ Verify and guarantee product quality, especially for hotels

确认并保证产品质量，尤其是酒店▪ Resolve issues during holiday in native language

在节假日期间使用当地语言解决问题

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We have unparalleled experience delivering impact in all sectors of travel

distribution – selected examples

我们拥有丰富的经验，可对旅游分销的各部门施加影响 – 精选案例

Identified 33% reduction in distribution costs; $100M+ in additional revenue分销成本降低33%；收入增加1亿美元以上

Meaningful reductions in commissions and changes to terms to lay groundwork for increase in direct channel share佣金减少和条款变更意义重大，为增加直接渠道的份额打下基础

4-5% direct share increase and 3 year distribution roadmap直接渠道份额增加4-5%，3年分销路线图

40+ pt share shift to low-cost direct channel40+ %份额转移到低成本的直接渠道

Annual revenue growth increased by 4 p.p. per year for 3 consecutive years年收入增长连续3年每年增长4%

Built OTA and metasearch alternative to drive greater hotel direct bookings建立OTA和元搜索替代方案，推动更大范围的酒店直接预定

Online bookings on track to double between 2012 and 2015在线预定步入正轨，在2012年和2015年期间翻番

Identified a $350M opportunity and built the team to capture it发现3.5亿美元的商机并打造团队抓住商机

Top 5 international

hotel group

5大国际酒店集团Top 10 multi-brand hotel

franchise group

10大多品牌连锁酒店集团

Multi-hotel consortium

多酒店联合体

International car rental

agency

国际租车代理

International airline

国际航空公司

International airline

国际航空公司

European tour operator

欧洲旅行社

Online travel agent

在线旅行社

Reduced commissions and sources of competitive search-term / brand bidding佣金减少，竞争搜索项/品牌报价来源减少

Cruise line

邮轮

Impact 影响

Future of airline distribution...

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