AUTOMOTIVE It’s Time to Make a Trade-off, Traditional … · 2016-10-26 · Step-AT CVT DCT 2015...

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. 版权所有。

It’s Time to Make a Trade-off, Traditional Powertrain or xEVs?

AUTOMOTIVE

Vivian Wang, Senior Analyst, [email protected] Wang, Senior Analyst, [email protected]

Oct 27, 2016 | Shanghai

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Table of Content

Part I: Potential of traditional powertrain for better fuel consumption Key trend of China powertrain technology

Fuel consumption improvement driven by traditional PT technology by vehicle segment

Traditional PT technology Competition: JV Brand vs Local Brand

Part II: Opportunity for xEVs xEVs market overview

What happened in xEVs market?

What’s approaching?

What’s next?

© 2016 IHS Markit

Part I: Potential of traditional powertrain for better fuel consumption

119


CAFCPhase IV

CAFCPhase V

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Electric Hybrid-Full Hybrid-Mild

CAFCPhase IV

CAFCPhase V

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

AMT AutomaticCVT DCTEVT/Reduction Manual

CAFCPhase IV

CAFCPhase V

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

TCI/VTCI GDI/DI-CRStart/stop 3 Cylinder

Key trend of China powertrain technology – Passenger CarEngine- Mature technology with recognized trend- Deeper market penetration- From 2015-2020, still promising market for fuel

consumption improvement- May affected by market expectation for BEV

Transmission- Fierce competition with uncertain future trend- From 2015-2020, DCT is expanding quickly with

significant substitution effect for older Step-AT - In longer term, CVT and step-AT still have

opportunity to reshape the market structure

xEVs- High cost and immature technology are still major

constraints. With government subsides reduction, market expectation is unclear.

- xEVs is more sense as a leverage tool for CAFC calculation


8.6% 6.7%2.8%

8.5%

50.6% 47.9% 46.6%55.1%

66.8%71.6%

56.6%59.8%

TCI DI 3-Cylinder Start/stop

2015 2020 2025

25.4%

9.8%1.9%

10.4%

22.0%16.2%

6.3%

23.7%20.2%

Step-AT CVT DCT

2015 2020 2025

Transmission:• It is a trend that low-torque

CVT and DCT in A/B segment take replacement 4AT.

• There is still big opportunity for the potential demand of CVT and DCT in the future.

Engine:• Significant change on engine

downsizing trend due to growth of GDI and turbocharging technology on A/B-segment vehicles.

• Low cost Stop/Start technology will still be good solution for entry vehicles’ electrification.

Fuel consumption improvement driven by traditional PT technology by A/B segment 2015 2020 2025

Source: IHS VPaC


24.8%19.0%

0.5%

14.3%

64.0% 64.6%

19.3%

64.3%68.7%

78.9%

26.2%

51.9%

TCI GDI 3 Cylinder Start/stop2015 2020 2025

34.7%

11.3% 10.5%

21.8%18.1%

30.7%

15.9%18.4%

35.2%

Step-AT CVT DCT2015 2020 2025

Transmission:• This is the most competitive

market segment with 6AT, CVT, DCT seizing the share.

• It is a trend that DCT will probably become the most popular solution led by European OEMs and followed by almost all of the other OEMs except Japanese OEMs.

Engine:

• Turbocharging boosting and GDI technology will be widely used on C-segment vehicles beyond 2020 due to fuel economy demand under pressure of phase 4+ fuel consumption limit.

Fuel consumption improvement driven by traditional PT technology by C segment

2015 2020 2025

Source: IHS VPaC


55.4%

13.7% 15.4%

44.0%

9.1%

29.4%

43.7%

9.1%

28.3%

Step-AT CVT DCT

2015 2020 2025

Transmission:

• Multi-speed step-AT will dominate this segment due to the larger torque range and customer preference.

• Big-torque wet-clutch DCT is also testing the market, especially by European OEMs.

53.3% 55.7%

31.7%

81.8% 83.3%

69.3%

86.7%85.7%

37.6%

TCI GDI Start/stop

2015 2020 2025

Engine:

• High penetration on D-and E-segment vehicles for turbocharging and GDI technology beyond 2020.

• Stop/Start will decline dramatically due to replacement of 48v mild hybrid for better fuel reductions.

Fuel consumption improvement driven by traditional PT technology by D/E segment

2015 2020 2025

Source: IHS VPaC


Traditional PT technology Competition: JV Brand vs Local Brand

27.2%61.8% 66.2%28.76% 66.53% 74.65%

2015 2020 2025

JV Brand Local Brand

Engine- JV brand OEMs are still leading the market penetration of key engine

technology while the gap with local brand is narrowing significantly.

TCI

32.8%68.3% 78.5%

7.33% 52.64%67.75%

2015 2020 2025

22.6%

72.1%55.1%4.99% 40.10% 33.46%

2015 2020 2025

0.9%23.7% 29.8%

0.94% 14.18% 19.89%

2015 2020 2025

GDI

S/S

3-cylinder engine

Transmission- For take rate of auto-shifting transmission, obvious gap is existing between

the two parties. - Gap nurtures opportunities and expansion capacity in the future.

© 2016 IHS Markit

Part II: Opportunity for xEVs

125


- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Electric Plug-in hybrid Full hybrid Mild hybrid

xEVs Market Overview Units: Million

+China-defined NEVs

xEVs=

Source: IHS

China-defined NEVs

xEVs

Whole PVs

5 years CAGR

5 years CAGR 140%

131%

11%

2010~2015

2010~2015

49%

71%

5%

2015~2020

2015~2020

16%

30%

2%

2020~2025

2020~2025



Source: IHS, Polk


What is approaching?

5.0L/100km

P IV

2019

110%

2020

100%

2017

128%

2018

120%2016

134%

Forenergysavingmodelsfuelconsumption 2.8L/100km2016‐2017W 3.52018‐2019W 2.52020W 1.5

CAFC∑ ∗∑ ∗

FC V W CAFC corporateaveragefuelconsumptionForEVsandPHEVswithE‐range 50km2016‐2017W2018‐2019W2020W

OthersWSource: IHS


2020MiniSubcompactCompactMid-SizeFull-Size

• Most heavier models with traditional powertrain cannot meet CAFC target in 2016.

• Mainly rely on NEV models to reduce fuel consumption..

• All models with traditional powertrain miss fuel consumption target in 2020.

2016 2018

What is approaching?Different approach- one domestic OEM

Source: IHS VPaC


2016 2018

2020CompactMid-SizeFull-Size

• Half models are below 2016 CAFC target, 2018 are still under control, but 2020 will be a tough year.

• Introduce new energy technology with specific models to test market and increase NEV models year by year to enjoy super credit.

• Optimize FC and restructure products portfolio.

What is approaching?Different approach- one JV OEM

Source: IHS VPaC


What’s next?


What’s next?

Government OEMsConsumers

Use ZEV credit as a tool to support CAFC system.

Overemphasize ZEV credit.

Subsidies

Scenario A

Scenario B

Incentive program

Regulations

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AUTOMOTIVE It’s Time to Make a Trade-off, Traditional … · 2016-10-26 · Step-AT CVT DCT 2015...

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Transcript of AUTOMOTIVE It’s Time to Make a Trade-off, Traditional … · 2016-10-26 · Step-AT CVT DCT 2015...