การพัฒนาตลาดตราสารหนี้

:

- - Email : [email protected] : E-Book

7 2555

10.15 – 12.00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

23-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60

40%

PDMO is driven by young generation with wits & willby

AGE

Total = 223

AGE range

22 24 25 26 28

HiPPS

27

23

HiPPS

บรหิารสงู (10) 1

ทรงคณุวุฒ ิ(10) 1

บรหิารตน้ (9) 1 1

อ านวยการสงู (9 บส) 1 2 3 4 5

เชีย่วชาญ (9 ชช) 1 2 3 4

อ านวยการตน้ (8 บก) 1 2

ช านาญการพเิศษ (8ว) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

ช านาญการ (6-7) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

ปฏบิตักิาร (3-5) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

2553 130

110

:

1/10 133

1/10 235

1/57 1,200 1/53 2,000 1/35 3,600

1/100 4,700 1/100 18,500

+10

+12553

2553

What can you do @ PDMO?

PDMO manages the Nation’s Portfolio… 4,248,399,540,000baht (42% of GDP)

CFO

Research & Policy Planning Project Finance

Debt management (Gov’t)

Bond market development Settlement & forex

Debt management (SOEs)

IT personnel AuditLegalHR

Risk modeling / credit rating / loan negotiation

Benchmark bond / Asia Bond / Sovereign Fund Management

Financing & monitoring MEGA projects

Credit scoring / Yankee Bond / Samurai Bond Financial market monitoring & execution

Debt Prepayment Allocation

May 2011

1 (Pro-active Debt Management)

3

8 4 5

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

1.2.1 1.1.1

/GDP

1.3.1 1.4.1

/

1.2.2

1.2.3

1.2.4

1.3.2

BenchmarkBond

Floating Rate Bond

2.1.1 2.2.1 2.3.1

2.2.2

IT

PMQA

3.1.1 3.2.1 3.3.1 3.4.1

3.2.2

Benchmark

:

2

( 2554-2556

19

2%

18

5%

15

6%

13

2%

11

8%

11

5%

10

8%

10

5%

99

%

95

%

87

%

83

%

80

%

80

%

78

%

78

%

77

%

75

%

72

%

70

%

69

%

68

%

67

%

67

%

64

%

64

%

62

%

61

%

60

%

60

%

59

%

59

%

58

%

58

%

58

%

55

%

55

%

54

%

54

%

54

%

53

%

52

%

52

%

50

%

50

%

49

%

49

%

49

%

48

%

48

%

47

%

47

%

47

%

46

%

46

%

46

%

45

%

44

%

44

%

44

%

43

%

43

%

42

%

41

%

40

%

39

%

38

%

38

%

38

%

36

%

35

%

35

%

35

%

34

%

34

%

33

%

33

%

33

%

32

%

32

%

32

%

32

%

31

%

31

%

31

%

31

%

30

%

30

%

30

%

29

%

28

%

27

%

26

%

26

%

25

%

24

%

24

%

24

%

20

%

20

%

20

%

19

%

19

%

19

%

19

%

19

%

18

%

18

%

18

%

18

%

17

%

16

%

15

%

15

%

14

%

14

%

12

%

11

%

9%

8%

8%

Zim

ba

bw

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Leb

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Jam

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Sin

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Hu

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Isra

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Ca

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Gh

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rie

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a

No

rwa

y

Ind

ia

Ph

illi

pp

ine

s

Uru

gua

y

Ma

uri

tiu

s

Ma

law

i

Bh

uta

n

El S

alv

ad

or

Alb

an

ia

Ke

nya

Mo

rocc

o

Wo

rld

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Cyp

rus

Vie

tna

m

Spa

in

Pa

na

ma

Co

sta

Ric

a

Arg

en

tin

a

Turk

ey

Ma

lays

ia

Po

lan

d

Un

ite

d A

rab

Em

ira

tes

Tun

isia

Bra

zil

Aru

ba

Co

lum

bia

Th

ail

an

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kin

sta

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Bo

livi

a

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s

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zerl

an

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Bo

snia

an

d H

erz

ego

vin

a

Do

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ica

n R

ep

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lan

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en

De

nm

ark

Ba

ngl

ad

esh

Mo

nte

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gro

Me

xico

Sou

th A

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a

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ba

Ga

bo

n

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vak

ia

Pu

pu

a N

ew

Gu

ine

a

Taiw

an

Cze

ch R

ep

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lic

Gu

ata

ma

la

Latv

ia

Ma

ced

on

ia

Syri

a

Eth

iop

ia

Za

mb

ia

Slo

ven

ia

Lith

un

ia

Serb

ia

Mo

ldo

va

Ba

hra

in

Uk

rain

e

Ind

on

esi

a

Ne

w Z

ea

lan

d

Ko

rea

, So

uth

Trin

ida

d a

nd

To

ba

go

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Pe

ru

Tan

zan

ia

Ho

nd

ura

s

Pa

ragu

ay

Sen

ega

l

Sau

di A

rab

ia

Ecu

do

r

Ro

ma

nia

Ira

n

Ve

ne

zue

la

Uga

nd

a

Na

mib

ia

Au

stra

lia

Ch

ina

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Bo

tsw

an

a

Nig

eri

a

An

gola

Gib

ralt

ar

Bu

lga

ria

Luxe

mb

ou

rg

Ca

me

roo

n

Ka

zak

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an

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ek

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Alg

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Ku

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it

Est

on

ia

30

4%304%

200%

150%

10 %

50%

0%

High HDI

Medium HDI

Low HDI

Very High HDI

2. Japan

192%

6. Singapore

118%

8. Greece

108%

18. Germany

77%

22. England

69%

31. India

60%

56. Thailand

42%

89. Indonesia

30%

91. South Korea

28% 107. China

18%

108. Hong Kong

18%

42. America

53%

WORLD

54%

32. Philippines

59%

2009 est.

Source : CIA – The World Fact Book

1. Zimbabwe

304%

50. Malaysia

48%

% to GDP

Public Debt to GDP (by country) Too BiG Too FaLL???

2012

3

Loan Market

Market maker Commercial banks Corporate/SOE Corporate/MOF/BOT/SOE

Market participants Borrowers/Savers Investors1 Investors2

Products Loans/Deposits/LC StockLoan Bond/Saving Bond/T-bill/ Promissory Note

Returns Interest rates Dividend/Capital Gain Coupons

Debt Market

Equity Market

Capital Market

3 3 Pillars of Financial Market System

Retail 60%Domestic Institution 20%Foreign Institution 20%

Retail 78%Domestic Institution 18%Foreign Institution 4%

1 - Yearly cumulative since 1 Jan 2010 – 23 Aug 2010

2 - As of June 2010

Capital market

Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Bank Loan /GDP Equity/GDP Bond Market / GDP

1997 Asian Financial Crisis The Rude AwakeningPublic Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Asian Fin. Crisis

128%

24%

12%

92%

77%

% of GDP

7.7 THB TrillionMarch 2012

67%

< 1y 2-3y 3-5y 6-10y 11-50y

68%

29%

3%

14%

18%

20% 28% 20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Bank Laon / GDP Equity / GDP Bond Market / GDP

Thai Bond Market Has Grown Strongly for More Than a Decade

Asian Fin. Crisis

128%

24%

12%

92%

77%

67%

Baht Bond

Corp. Bond

SOE Bond

BOT Bond

GOVT Bond

1%

19%

6%

38%

36%

Domestic Bond Market Capitalisation = 7.7 THB TrillionAs of March 2012 (Classified by Types of Issuers)

% of GDP

2.9 THB Trillion

2.7 THB Trillion

Maturity Profile

BOT vs GOVT Bond

BOT

MOF

BOT ATM = 1yr GOVT ATM = 6yrs 7mths

7.7 THB TrillionMarch 2012

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

% o

f G

DP

67%

Post Crisis – 2000 : Volume Oriented Bond Market Capitalisation tripled Government Bonds

Outstanding grew by 50 times Government Bond Market

Share jumped from 3% in 1997to 44% in 2000

2007 – 2010 : Development Oriented Regular Benchmark Issuance New Product Development Regular Market Dialogue

with BoT and PDs

Pre-Crisis- Illiquid Bond Market- Absence of Benchmark Bond- Dominated by SoE’s Bonds

Next Step 2011-13:

(Market Deepening Oriented) 50-yr Bond, ILB, Electronic Retail Bond

Upgrade PD PrivilegesRegional Linkage (CGIF)Amortizing BondBond Switching and Bond Consolidation

The Thai Bond Market has Developed Rapidly and EfficientlyThe Thai Bond Market Has Developed Rapidly and Efficiently

THB

Tri

llio

n


Savings Bond ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

Promissory Note ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

Inflation-Linked Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

Floating Rate Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

Bank Loan ~200,000 THB Mi (18%)

Benchmark Bond ~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)

3

5

710

15

20

30

50

Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)

Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

LB 3 yr 150,000 THB Mil.








Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil.

Benchmark Bond

* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments


($40 bil)

($5 bil.)

($3 bil.)

($4 bil.)

($2 bil.)

($2 bil.)

($1 bil.)

($0.8 bil.)

($3 bil.)

($20 bil.)

($1.5 bil.)

($3 bil.)

($1.2 bil.)

($40 bil.)

($3 bil.)

($1.5 bil.)

($7 bil.)

Development of Government Debt Securities

2011201020092008 2012-2013

30-year Benchmark Bond

10-yearInflation Linked Bond

12-year and 18-yearFixed-rate

Promissory Bond

50-year

Benchmark Bond

5-yearStep-up

Savings Bond

6-yearStep-up

Savings Bond

3-yearRetail Bond @ ATM

4-yearFloating Rate Bond

April 23nd 2008

FY

July 15th 2009

June 7th 2010

March 2nd 2011

December 22nd 2010

July 11th 2011

September 12th 2011

July 27th 2009


• Allow both issuer and investors to manage and improve their portfolio

• Larger outstanding size + Less bond series more liquidity in the secondary market

• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP • Pay back the bond principal by installments Promote the government’s fiscal discipline

FY2007 – FY2013 Innovation of GOV’T Debt Securities

FY 2

00

7-1

0FY

20

11

• Broaden investor base – Retail investors• Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond

• Increase floating debt ratio (10% to 18%)• Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)

• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity ATM Government Debt Portfolio 5.7yrs to 6.1yrs• Meet long term investors’ demand

FY 2

01

2-2

01

3

PDDF(Public Debt Restructuring and Domestic Bond Market

Development Fund)Upgrade PD Privileges

Baht Bond

CGIF(Credit Guarantee and

Investment Facility)

Step-up Savings Bond

Floating Rate Bond

30-yr Loan Bond

• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase• Offer throughout the year• Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches

• Strong anti-inflationary signal• Deepen the Development of the Bond market

• 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies

• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity

• 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)50-yr Loan Bond

Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers

Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)

• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors• Non-Benchmark tenorsFixed Rate Promissory Note

Bond Switching & Consolidation

Amortizing Bond


FY FY FY FY FY FY FY F

FY FY FY FY FY FY FY F

2550 ,

I. Reduce Auction Frequency from Once a Week to Every Other Month(to Create Even Distribution of the Benchmark Bond Supply over the Year)

PDMO Revised the Strategy of Benchmark Bond Issuance in 3 ways (FY2007-FY2013)

III. Increase Outstanding Size

II. Increase Auction Size

40,000

4,000

Unit : THB Mil

Unit : THB Mil

50,000-80,000

12,000-15,000

Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs

Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs

80,000-100,000

100,000-120,000

100,000-120,000

120,000-150,000

150,000-200,000

6,000-8,000

8,000-10,000

10,000-12,000

15,000-20,000

15,000-20,000


31

0,0

00

60

,00

0

17

0,0

00

28

1,0

00

26

1,1

71

30

9,8

26

13

1,0

00

82

,23

3

15

4,0

00

32

1,1

71

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Benchmark Bond Non Benchmark Bond Savings Bond T-Bill (Outstanding) Others

Plan Actual

Benchmark Bond Non Benchmark Bond Savings Bond T-Bill (Outstanding) Others

Plan Actual

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark BondRegardless of Budget uncertainty

Higher government

funding needs due to

Stimulus Package

approx.+250,000 THB Mil.

FY2009

Lower Borrowing needs

due to Economic Recovery

approx. -160,000 THB Mil.

FY2010

Total Funding needs

increased from:

420,000 THB Mil. to

670,000 THB Mil.

(+59%)

Total Funding needs

decreased from:

800,000 THB Mil to

640,000 THB Mil

(-20%)

THB Mil.

+2%+170%

+33%

+40%

+86%

+118%

-51%

-45%

0% +8%

Treasury Balance = 417,166 THB Mil.



THB Mil.

33

0,0

00

19

9,1

10

10

0,0

00

30

,00

0

60

,00

0

12

5,1

22

45

,00

0

40

0,0

00

34

5,7

51

11

0,8

50

10

5,7

82

64

,65

9

52

,18

0

12

0,2

31

88

,24

9

30

,03

0

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

BenchmarkBond

NonBenchmark

Bond

Savings Bond T-Bill(Outstanding)

ILB Float P/N Fixed P/N Bank Loan(Outstanding)

Plan Actual

34

9,5

00

95

,00

0

-

20

4,0

00

9,0

00

19

0,5

14

45

,00

0

17

7,7

70

33

9,9

00

70

,00

0

1,0

75

12

5,6

91

40

,00

0

54

,01

4

34

,60

0

14

9,1

10

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

BenchmarkBond

NonBenchmark

Bond

Savings Bond T-Bill(Outstanding)

ILB Float P/N Fixed P/N Bank Loan(Outstanding)

Plan Actual

Total Funding needs

decreased from:

700,000 THB Mil to

400,000 THB Mil

(- 36%)

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark BondRegardless of Budget uncertainty

FY2011

FY2012

THB Mil.

+6%-44%

+5%



Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office

Higher than expected

Revenue collection


THB Mil.

-3%

+344%-26%

-16%-38%

+116%

-72% -23%

-92%-4%

-13%+96%

390,000 THB Mil. Undrawn

Decree (Water + Insurance)


Total Funding needs

decreased from:

1,140,000 THB Mil to

750,000 THB Mil

(-34%)

LB

A

LB

B

LB

DA

LB

A

LB

A

LB

B

LB

DA

LB

OA

ILB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

NA

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

DA

LB

A

LB

A

LB

DA

LB

A

LB

DA

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

DA

LB

A

LB

NA

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

NA

LB

OA

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

LB

DA

LB

A

LB

A

LB

A

Outstanding size (THB Mil.)

% %

Top 5(>100,000)

Next 10(50,000-100,000)

TTM (Year)

3

10

20

5

307

10

15

LB155A

LB15D

A

LB21D

A

ILB217A

LB176A

LB416A

LB193A

LB616A

LB27D

A

LB

16

5A

5

3 2 3 7 1 6 10 5 10 9 16 4 7 1 4 2 5 7 2 5 13 19 1 2 9 30 7 3 7

FRB

ILB

TOP 5 > 100,000 THB Mil in Size (45% of Trading Volume)

50

3

LB326A

FY2012 Total GOVT Bond = 45 Series(2,277,XXX THB Mil) Next 10 > 50,000 THB Mil in Size (28% of Trading Volume)

TOP 5

45%

Next 10 Bottom 30

28% 27%

FY-to-date Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market (Oct 11-Apr 12)

0 50 100

FY 2012 on-the-run Benchmark Bond


33%

42%

64%77%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2554F

… …

• ATM

• % %

,

• •

1 2 3 4 5

3% 3%

4%

5% 5%

1 2 3 4 5 6

3% 3%

4% 4%

5%

6%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

,

0% 1% 2% 2% 2%

8%

1% 1% 1% 1%

47%

34%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

10,000 -50,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

19 %

47 %

34 %

วงเงิน าหน ายทั งห ด = บ

, บ

8% 7% 7%5%

3%

10%

2% 1% 1% 0%

32%

24%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

10,000 -50,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

32 %

30 %10 %

4 %

24 %

านวนบัญชีทั งห ด = บัญชี

, บัญชี

2% 2% 2%

7%

14%

19%

36%

15%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

- - - - - - - -

วงเงินซ อ บ งตา อายุเ ้า องบัญชี

2% 2% 2%

7%

14%

19%

36%

15%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

- - - - - - - -

านวนบัญชี บ งตา อายุเ ้า องบัญช ี

• 1 34 • 44 (60 )

2553

1,065

2,863 3,316

16,157

24,320 25,676

34,745

13,257

2,481

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-

12,500

25,000

37,500

50,000

- - - - - - - -

านวนบญัช ี บ งตา อายเุ า้ องบญัช ี

41%

, บญัช ี

1%2% 3%

10%

18%

21%

30%

12%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

8,000

16,000

24,000

32,000

40,000

- - - - - - - -

วงเงนิซ อ บ งตา อายเุ า้ องบญัช ี

, บ

44%

104,000

135,736

PAR

100,000PAR

100,000 36,000

= 4% = 1% * *

* %

1 – 9 10 1 – 9 10

10,464

Structure of Thai Inflation Linked Bond (Inaugural ILB, July 2011)

Capital Indexed Bond (with Principle Protection)Format

Every 6 monthsInterest Payment

Thai BahtCurrency

40,000 THB Mil. (1.3 bil USD equiv.)Programme Size

10 yearsTenor

3 monthsIndexation Lag

Headline CPIIndex

1.2Real Yield

CPIt /CPI0 (TBMA’s calculation)Index Ratio

BulletRepayment Method

15,000 MB

5,000 MB

20,000 MB

LocalInstitutions

Local Retail

ForeignInstitutions

Allocations

Next Step Enhance ILB liquidity

Subscription : approx. 1.6 times

Continuing Issuance

PD’s responsibility

FY 2012 : Develop regular annual auction plan (every quarter)FY 2012 : Top-up the existing tenor to enhance liquidity : 60,000 THB Mil. (2 USD Bil equiv.)

(15,000 THB Mil. each in Feb Apr Jun and Aug)FY 2013 : Issue other Benchmark tenors (5-15years ILBs)

FY 2012 : Maintain portion of successful bid in ILB primary marketFY 2013 : Maintain portion of ILB trading in secondary marketFY 2013 : Provide firm bid / ask spreads in secondary market

Enhance Liquidity


Best Sovereign Bond 2011 : Asiamoney Awards

Best Thailand Deal 2011 : Asiamoney Awards Best Local Currency Bond 2011 : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards Best Thailand Deal 2011 : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011 : IFRAsia Asia Awards Deal of the Year from Asia : Euro Money

Outstanding Issuer of the Year : Asset Asian Awards 2011 The Most Impressive Local Currency 2011 : Euroweek Asia

Deal of the Year 2011 : ThaiBMAMost Creative Issue 2011 : ThaiBMA

8 International AWARDS

+2 Domestic

AWARDS

Funding Instruments : Local Bond Market VS Foreign Bond Markets

FY 2012 Full Capacity* : 1,150,000 THB MilWell Diversified Investors Ensures Funding Needs

Potential Demandfor Gov’t Bond 2012

Outstanding of Foreign DebtEquiv. 41,000 THB Mil (1.4% of Gov’t Debt)

Commercial PapersSamurai bond 5 yr 20,000 Yen MilSamurai bond 7 yr 10,000 Yen MilMTN 40 USD Mil

Soft LoansJBIC 64,800 Yen MilIBRD 66 USD MilOther 19 USD Mil

Equiv. 13,000 THB Mil Equiv. 28,000 THB Mil

• To diversify portfolio of government debt

• To keep the presence of KOT Bond (Kingdom of Thailand) in the foreign market

• To maintain KOT Bond as a reference benchmark yield for Thai private sector issuers

• To avoid crowding out effect on domestic bond market

(as of Oct 2011) Concerns : exchange rate risk / swap cost / natural hedging

* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments

- Life Insurance - Pension Funds

SB

Bank loanFRB / LB

P/NLB

Depository Corporations

- Retail - Non-profit org.

Non-Residence

LB 5/10ILB

?

400

400

THB Bil.

200

Insurance and

Other Corporation

33%

DepositoryCorporation

35%

NR12%

CB 6%

Source : CB (30 January 2012)

15%Householdand

Non-profit


Savings Bond ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

Promissory Note ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

Inflation-Linked Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

Floating Rate Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

Bank Loan ~200,000 THB Mi (18%)

Benchmark Bond ~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)

3

5

710

15

20

30

50

Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)

Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)









Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil.

Benchmark Bond


next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10 yrs +

52%

20% 28%

next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10 yrs +

61%

24% 15%

(1) ATM Lengthened(2) Cost Lowered(3) Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio(4) Well-Distributed Maturity Profile

Well-Developed Bond Market Improved

GOV’T Direct Debt (1.87 THB Trillion.) Profile Dramatically

Fixed

90%

Fixed

82%

Float 18%Float 10%

ATM

5yrs 3mths

ATM

7yrs 5mths

Avg. cost

4.5%

As of Dec 2007 As of Dec 2011

Average-Time-to-Maturity

LENGTHENED by 2 yrs

Avg. Cost LOWERED by 10 bps .(While ATM Lengthened by 2 yrs)

Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio(Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)

Well-Distributed Maturity Profile(Target : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs ≤ 50% of Total Debt)

Avg. cost

4.4%

Maturity Profile as of Dec 2009 Maturity Profile as of Dec 2011


• 80 percent of Thailand’s debt securities were issued by Government, Central bank and State-owned EnterprisesIssuers

• 98 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade by local rating agenciesCredit Rating

• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor typesInvestors

Thailand Bond Market(Classified by Issuers)

Government Bonds(Classified by Types of Investors)

Thailand Bond Market(Classified by Credit Rating)

Central Bank

38%

Non-rated2%

BBB

2%

A

7%AA

5%

AAA

4%

SOEs

6%

Government

36%

Insurance and

Other Corporation

32%

DepositoryCorporation

40%

Householdand

Non-profit

NR9%

CB 10%

Source : CB (30 April 2012)

Government

36%

Central Bank

38%

SOEs

6%

Private Sector

20%

Source : ThaiBMA (12 April 2012)

9%

Equilibrium of Thai Bond Market

Source : ThaiBMA (12 April 2012)


165,000

441,061

232,575 200,666

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

56,582

67,740

25,000 52,000

222,003

199,239

219,222 25,000

98,161

139,171 113,014

340,122 64,970

129,124

75,171

80,000

260,000

58,940

94,170

58,940

50,000

350,000

-

500,000

1,000,000

FIDF

FIDF

TKK

THB Mil.

AnnualFundingNeeds(THB Mil.)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013 F 2014 F 2015 F

246,582 686,962 656,746 424,620 1,140,122* 536,973 622,533 453,333

Annual Funding Needs Will Always Be around 500,000 THB Mil.

As of May 2012

TENTATIVE

06/13

Water Decree

*Not Including Pre-Mature Debt Restructuring of 167,000 THB Mil. (TKK = 149,000 THB Mil. & FIDF = 18,000 THB Mil.)


DeficitDeficit Restructuring

FIDF RestructuringTKK TKK RestructuringWater Management Decree

Insurance Decree

June

Insurance Decree

! Last Resort

715

843

984 923

825 860

910

1,023 1,000

1,164

1,250

1,360

1,566

1,660

1,952

1,700

2,070

715

843

984923

800 750805 823 825

1,064

1,250

1,360

1,420

1,495 1,511

1,350

1,650

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2538

2539

2540

2541

2542

2543

2544

2545

2546

2547

2548

2549

2550

2551

2552

2553

2554

: -

ปี งป . 2541 - 2546 ปี งป . 2547 - 2551 ปี งป . 2552 - 2554

ค าเฉ ีย่ GDP Growth 2.2% 4.6% 1.9%

ค าเฉ ีย่ รอ้ย ะงบ าดด ุต องบประ าณราย าย 10.7% 5.6% 21.2%

%

%

%

%


Logistic37029%

Agriculture

26921%

Energy15712%

Education144

11%

Community Investment

141

11%

Public Health1088%

others1078%

additional public borrowing

Budget Deficit

% to GDP (RHS)

Billion

Baht

Fiscal Stimulus averaged 7%

of GDP (FY2009 - FY2011)

Source : Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance34

TKK 2012 : 1,296 Billion

Baht (2008-2012)

TKK =

20%

14%

12%

9%

8% 8% 8% 8%

11%

9%

11%

9%

-2%

-4%

-3%-3%

9%

17%

13%

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

2006

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2007

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009

-Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010

-Q1

Q2

million baht% change (Q-on-Q)

Huge stimulus package resulted in 10-year high GDP growth despite

political turbulence

NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment

Military Coup

Rajprasong Incident

US financial Crisis

Songkran Incident


Nominal GDP % growth (Q-on-Q) and GDP current price (million baht)

3

: ,

: . –

:

Thailand

World

Source : TIME, October 6, 2008

How many Thailand?

Major Central Bank’s Policy Rate CUTS within 3 days

NZ 7.50%

CHI 6.93%

AU 6.00%

BOE 4.50%

ECB 3.75%

RP 3.75%

BOJ 0.5%

FED 1.50%

The FED led a coordinated round of global official rate cuts on easing by a half-point, as did the European

Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss, Canadian and Swedish banks because of growing evidence of

weaker economic activity and reduced inflationary pressure.

Source : compiled by KTC

?

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010F 2011F

China India Hong kong Korea Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Thailand

% change (Y-on-Y)

IMF foresees that Thailand will enjoy

strongest rebound among ASEAN–5 (excl China & India)

Hugh stimulus pays off

NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment


7.8%

-2.3%

China

India

Real GDP (year on year percentage change)

Source : World Economic Outlook Database, IMF, 2010

0.1%

4%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Year

GD

P G

row

th r

ate

Thailand United States WORLD

Tom Yum Kung

Crisis

2nd Oil Crisis

Persian Gulf War

Tsunami

Financial

Liberalization

Financial

liberalization

Japanese

Wave

Bubble tech

Asian Fin. crisisFin. Crisis

(Lehman bros.)

What will likely be the cause of the next crisis?

/ / /

/

Sufficiency Economy Philosophy

Economy / Social / Environment / Culture

Balance / Ability to cope

Middle path

Moderation

Reasonableness Self - immunity

Knowledge condition expert, carefully, Carefulness

Moral/Ethical condition Honesty, integrity, Generosity, Harmlessness

Source : Dr. Sumet TantivejkulMember Secretary General Chaipattana FoundationEBA October 2006

Moderation

Pimpen Ladpli [email protected] 5802

Pothirat Kijsriopak [email protected] 5812 Ittipong Kanluan [email protected] 5806

Raveewan Buanung [email protected] 5801Anong Chaithong [email protected] 5817

Nattakarn Boonsri [email protected] 5803 Onpreeya Chungpanich [email protected] 5805

Puttipong Kanna [email protected] 5808 Taninrat Wongsuppapat [email protected] 5811

Wantanee Po-ngam [email protected] 5814Wilawan Prachasin [email protected] 5816

Chatmanee Sinsiri [email protected] 5804

Busabong Tantamaneerat [email protected] 5818Veeraya Julamont [email protected] 5807Laksika Tengpratip [email protected] 5813

Thatree Intharasut [email protected] 5815Sindruthai Pulsirivong [email protected] 5819

Government Bond Market Development Division

Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division

ExtensionE-mail

Tel. 02-271-7999FAX 02-357-3576

International Bond Market Policy Division

Bond Market Development Bureau

ExtensionE-mail

ExtensionE-mail

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