1

Chin lc hi qun ca Trung Quc ti bin ng qua

l thuyt ca Alfred Thayer Mahan Tc gi: Nguyn Th Phng1

Bn tho u tin, xin ng trch dn. Tc gi mong mun nhn c cc ph bnh v

phn bin

1 Nguyn Th Phng l nghin cu vin ti Trung tm Nghin cu Quc t (SCIS), i hc Khoa hc X hi v Nhn vn, i hc Quc gia TpHCM. Chuyn ngnh nghin cu ca Th Phng tp trung vo quan h quc t v chin lc quc phng ca cc cng quc Chu Thi Bnh Dng. T nm 2012, Th Phng xut bn cc bi vit trn E-International Relations; Tp ch Nghin cu Quc t; Tp

2

1. Dn nhp

S tri dy ca hi qun Trung Quc (PLAN) ti bin ng ni chung v khu vc Ty

Thi Bnh Dng ni ring ang tr thnh mt ti nng. Qu trnh ny khng phi

ngu nhin xut hin, m c mt s nhn thc k cng v mt chin lc. Quan st qu

trnh pht trin chin lc hi qun Trung Quc k t nm 1949, i km vi l qu

trnh xy dng nng lc hi qun, vai tr ngy cng ln ca lc lng ny trong tng th

chin lc bin ca Trung Quc c hoch nh c h thng. T mt lc lng ban u

ch gm vi ba tu tun tra c, ngy nay PLAN tr thnh lc lng hi qun hng u

chu , xt v mt s lng tu chin v chi ph dnh cho quc phng. Hin ti, nng lc

kim sot v tc chin ca PLAN m rng ra bn ngoi chui o th nht, vi mt s

chuyn dch chin lc t phng th ch ng bin gn sang tc chin phng th bin

xa. Din t cch khc l dch chuyn t phng th sang va phng th va tn cng

trn mt phm vi a l rng ln hn.

Bin ng l mt b phn a l quan trng trong chin lc phng th ch ng bin

gn. y cng l tc nhn gy tranh chp chnh gia Trung Quc v cc quc gia lng

ging ng Nam . Hiu v phn tch c chnh sch hi qun ca Trung Quc c

bit ti vng ny l quan trng hiu c i chin lc ca nc ny. Bi vit mong

mun cung cp t mt gc nhn trong tranh lun v chin lc hi qun ca Trung Quc

ti bin ng thng qua p dng l thuyt quyn lc bin ca Alfred Thayer Mahan, mt

chin lc gia hi qun ngi M.

Nghin cu v l thuyt ca Alfred T. Mahan l cn thit c th hiu r hn v hi

qun Trung Quc ti bin ng bi ba l do: (1) cc cng trnh ca Mahan ch yu kho

cu s tri dy ca cc cng quc bin hng u trong lch s th gii; (2) Trung Quc,

thng qua cc chnh sch ca mnh, c tham vng t mt cng quc lc a tr thnh

mt cng quc hi dng; v (3) cc chin lc gia v hc gi Trung Quc ni nhiu

v Mahan, chng t nh hng ng ghi nhn ca Mahan ti quc gia ny. Vi bin

ng gi mt v tr quan trng trong chin lc phng th ch ng bin gn, qu trnh

hin i ho v nhng hnh vi ca Trung Quc gn y phn no phn nh cc t

tng ca Alfred T. Mahan. Thng qua khung l thuyt ny, nhng bc i gn y ca

Trung Quc ti bin ng c th c gii thch mt cch chi tit. Tc gi cng ng

thi mong mun nu ln mt s hn ch nht nh trong l thuyt ca Mahan.

3

Bi vit c chia lm bn phn ni dung chnh. Phn th nht cp ti tm quan trng

ca vic nghin cu l thuyt ca Mahan lin quan ti chin lc hi qun ca Trung

Quc ti bin ng. Phn th hai nu ln mt s quan im l thuyt ca Mahan v trong

phn th ba, tc gi s p dng cc l thuyt nu lm r hn nhng chuyn ng v

mt chin lc m Bc Kinh v ang p dng bin ng. Phn cui cng, nhng

thiu st trong l thuyt ca Mahan s c ch ra nhm a li mt gc nhn hon thin

hn cho cch tip cn ny.

2. Tm quan trng ca vic nghin cu Mahan ti bin ng

Trc ht, ti sao nghin cu v l thuyt quyn lc bin ca Alfred T. Mahan l quan

trng hiu r chin lc hi qun ca Trung Quc? Th nht, Mahan nghin cu s

tri dy ca cc cng quc bin hng u trong lch s, m tiu biu l H Lan, Ty Ban

Nha, Php v Anh. Trong tc phm ni ting nht ca mnh nh hng ca sc mnh

trn bin i vi lch s, 1660-1783, Mahan a ra nhng phn tch v l do ti sao B

o Nha v Ty Ban Nha li suy tn nhng ch cho Anh v H Lan. p dng nhng

thnh t sc mnh bin trong l thuyt ca mnh, Mahan nu ln nhng c trng v a

l, tnh cht dn tc hay c trng chnh ph vn gip cho Anh v H Lan tr thnh

nhng cng quc bin vng mnh v c tm nh hng ln. Ton b qu trnh vn

ng i ln v i xung ca cc cng quc k trn t th k 17 cho n u th k 19

c Mahan tm tt. ng cng nu ln nhiu v d sinh ng chng minh cho cc lp

lun ca mnh thng qua cc trn hi chin. Bn cnh , l thuyt ca Mahan sau ny

nh hng mnh m ln chin lc hi qun ca nhiu cng quc khc, c bit l Hoa

K, c, Nht Bn v Nga.

Th hai, vi sc mnh kinh t v qun s ang tri dy mnh m Ty bn cu, Trung

Quc c tham vng tr thnh mt cng quc bin hng u. Trung Quc hin nay ph

thuc rt nhiu vo bin c, c bit l v thng mi v nng lng.2 Vo nm 2013,

trong mt cuc hp vi Cc chnh tr Trung ng ng Cng sn Trung Quc, Tng b

th Tp Cn Bnh nhn mnh rng bin v i dng c vai tr ngy cng quan trng

trong qu trnh pht trin kinh t ca quc gia v s tin ln ca dn tc, v Trung

Quc cn phi tng cng pht trin cng ngh hng hi tin tin vi mc ch bin t

2 Cheng, Dean, Sea Power and the Chinese State: Chinas Maritime Ambitions, The Heritage Foundation, 11/7/2011, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/07/sea-power-and-the-chinese-state-chinas-maritime-ambitions#_ftn3. Truy cp 13/5/2015.

4

nc tr thnh mt cng quc bin.3 Cng trong nm 2013, B Chnh tr ng Cng

sn Trung Quc cng hp tho lun v chin lc bin, v Ch tch Tp cng

pht biu rng Chng ta cn lm nhiu hn na ginh ly li ch trn bin, hiu c

bin c, v kim sot bin c mt cch chin lc, tip tc thc hin cc bin php nhm

tng cng cc n lc ca Trung Quc trong qu trnh tr thnh mt cng quc hi

dng.4 Cc quan chc nh nc, cc ngun tin bn chnh thng v cc n phm ca hi

qun sau thng xuyn trch dn khi nim kim sot bin c mt cch chin

lc () nh l hn tng trong li suy ngh chin lc ca Tp Cn Bnh.5

Th ba, l thuyt ca Alfred Thayer Mahan c nh hng kh ln Trung Quc. T duy

chin lc v sc mnh bin ca Trung Quc c cho l ch yu ti t Mahan.6 Thm

ch, cc tc phm v sc mnh bin khc nh ca s gia hi qun ngi Anh Julian

Corbett mi ti nm 2010 mi nhn c s ch ca gii hc gi, trong khi bn in hon

chnh u tin ca cun sch nh hng ca sc mnh bin trong lch s c nh

xut bn qun i Trung Quc pht hnh vo nm 1998.7 Qu trnh pht trin ca hi

qun Trung Quc cng phn no mang hnh bng ca Mahan, c trng nht l vic xy

dng mt lc lng hi qun hin i, hng mnh c th bo v li ch ca Trung

Quc trn bin c.

Cng ging nh Mahan, cc chin lc gia Trung Quc nhn mnh ti mi lin kt gia

hai yu t thng mi v hi qun. Thiu tng Jiang Shiliang, cu Tng cc trng

Tng cc hu cn cho rng Trung Quc phi kim sot bng c cc tuyn ng bin

chin lc.8 Nhiu nh phn tch khc cng trch dn Mahan khi nhc ti gi tr chin

lc ca i Loan, ca chui o th nht, ca o Guam v cc cn c qun s khc

3 Xinhua News, Xi advocates efforts to boost Chinas maritime power, 31/7/2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-07/31/c_132591246.htm. Truy cp 13/5/2015. 4 Chinas Daily, : [Ch tch Tp Cn Bnh ti Hi ngh tp hun ca B Chnh tr ng cng sn Trung Quc nhn mnh: Thc y s nghip xy dng cng quc hi dng khng ngng t c thnh tu mi], August 1, 2013, http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2013-08/01/nw.D110000renmrb_20130801_2-01.htm. Truy cp 13/5/2015. 5 Martinson, D. Ryan, Jinglue Haiyang: The Naval Implications of Xi Jinpings New Strategic Concept, China Brief Volume: 15, Issue: 1, The Jamestown Foundation, 9/1/2015, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=43375&cHash=5717d3667effcc4216b825313bd9b0a7#.VVLEM_RFJ24. Truy cp 13/5/2015. 6 Wang, Dong, The Evolution of Chinas Concept of Sea Power and Maritime Strategy, bi trnh by ti the Maritime Security Challenge Conference, Victoria, Canada, 2014, http://www.mscconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/MSC2014-Wang-Evolution-of-PRC-Mar-Strat.pdf. Truy cp 13/5/2015. 7 Wang, Dong, tld. 8 Shiliang, Jiang, The Command of Communications, Zhongguo Junshi Kexue, 2/10/2002, pp 106-14.

5

ca Hoa K nm trn chui o th hai.9 Mt v d khc, Gio s Liu Zhongmin n t

i hc Khoa hc Hi dng Trung Quc, vit mt chui bi gm ba phn tp trung

vo phn tch mt cch ton din v quan im ca Mahan trn nhiu kha cnh, c bit

l mi quan h gia l thuyt sc mnh bin trong m bo dng chy thng mi trong

thi bnh.10 Tuy nhin, James Holmes v Toshi Yoshihara t i hc Hi chin Hoa K,

thng qua kho st cc bi nghin cu ca Trung Quc, cho rng cc hc gi nc ny

vn cha khai thc ht tim nng v ng dng t l thuyt ca Mahan. Hai tc gi ny

a ra hai gi thuyt cho tng lai.11 Th nht, cc hc gi Trung Quc s vn tip tc

o su nghin cu v l thuyt quyn lc bin ca Mahan, ngoi kha cnh hi chin

n thun. Th hai, cc hc gi hi qun s s dng hc thuyt ca Mahan nh mt cch

thc nhm vn ng cho vic xy dng mt lc lng hi qun mnh m, t tin, ng

dng cng ngh cao. Trong c hai kch bn, l thuyt quyn lc bin ca Mahan u

ng mt vai tr trung tm trong nghin cu v lc lng hi qun Trung Quc trong

tng lai.

Tip theo, ti sao tc gi li tp trung vo tm hiu chin lc ca Trung Quc ti bin

ng? Th nht, bin ng l mt b phn quan trng trong chin lc hi qun tng th

ca nc ny. Mt trong hai nhim v hin nay ca hi qun Trung Quc l m bo

phng th ch ng ti nhng vng bin gn. c khi ng bi chnh ng Tiu

Bnh nm 1979 v hon thin bi c Lu Hoa Thanh12, phng th ch ng ti

vng bin gn (, ) bao trm ton b chui o th nht (t qun o

Kuril, qua Nht Bn, qun o Ryukyu, i Loan, Philippines ti o Borneo); cc vng

bin gn () bao quanh Trung Quc nh Hong Hi, Hoa ng hay bin ng; cc

vng bin ngoi bin () tip gip vi chui o nh nht v khu vc bc Thi Bnh

Dng.13 C th nhn thy bin ng ng vai tr khng th thiu trong chin lc bin

9 Holmes, James and Yoshihara, Toshi, A Chinese Turn to Mahan?, China Brief Volume: 9 Issue: 13, Jamestown Foundation, 24/6/2009, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35172&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=414&no_cache=1#.VVMlGPRFJ24. Truy cp 13/5/2015. 10 Zhongming, Liu, The Question of Sea Power in Geopolitical Theory, Parts 1-3, Ocean World, May-July 2008. 11 Holmes, James and Yoshihara, Toshi, tld. 12 c Lu Hoa Thanh () l ch huy hi qun Trung Quc t nm 1982 cho ti nm 1988 v l Ph Ch tch Qun u Trung ng Trung Quc t 1988 n 1997. 13 Li, Nan, The Evolution of Chinas Naval Strategy and Capabilities: From Near Coast and Near Seas to Far Seas, trong Phillip C. Saunders, Christopher Yung, Michael Swain, Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang

6

gn, l mt bc m quan trng Trung Quc c th thc hnh tc chin bin xa trong

tng lai. Thm na, vo nm 2010, bin ng, bn cnh Tn Cng v Ty Tng,

c chnh thc tuyn b l mt trong cc li ch ct li ca Trung Quc. Vi hnh

dung nh vy, Bc Kinh s tn dng ti a tt c cc cng c, c bit l hi qun,

m bo s hin din v ch quyn ca mnh ti khu vc bin ng.14

Vi l do , Trung Quc ang tp trung hin i ho Hm i Nam Hi, bin hm i

ny tr thnh mt trong nhng hm i hin i nht quc gia.15 Hm i Nam Hi hin

nay ch yu s hu cc lp tu h h mi nht,16 bao gm tu ngm tn cng ht nhn

lp Thng, tu ngm ht nhn mang tn la n o lp Tn, v hn 29 tu tn cng

mt nc hin i, cha k cc tu tn cng nhanh lp H Bc.17 Hi qun Trung Quc

cng tng cng u t c s h tng ti o Hi Nam, vi hai cn c hi qun chnh l

Longpo v Yulin, bin o ny thnh mt t hp hi qun quan trng.

Cc hnh vi gy hn gn y ca Trung Quc cng c th c gii thch mt phn thng

qua lng knh ca Alfred T. Mahan. Chin lc o ho, hay bn thn qu trnh hin

i ho hi qun cho thy xu hng kim sot mt bin (sea control) v kim sot cc

im chin lc (choke point control) trong hc thuyt quyn lc bin ca Mahan.

c th kim sot mt bin, cn phi gy dng mt lc lng hi qun mnh, sn sng bo

v cc khu vc bin mang tnh chin lc nh hng mnh m ti li ch quc gia, i

vi Trung Quc l cc gi tr ct li.

2. Quyn lc bin trong l thuyt ca Mahan

L thuyt v quyn lc bin ca Mahan p dng gii thch s tri dy ca cc cng

quc hi dng t th k 17 n th k 19. Cc c trng kinh t, x hi v a l c

ng phn chia lm su thnh t chnh, c coi nh nhng thnh t gip nh v mt

quc gia c phi l cng quc bin hay khng. Tuy nhin, tc gi s khng cp chi

(bin tp), The Chinese Navy: Expanding Capabilities, Evolving Roles, Washington. D.C, National Defense University Press, 2011, trang 116. 14 Holmes, James and Yoshihara, Toshi, Can China Defend a Core Interest in the South China Sea?, The Washington Quaterly, 34:2, Spring 2011, trang 49-56. 15 Fravel, M. Taylor, Chinas Strategy in the South China Sea, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 33, No. 3, 2011, trang 307-08. 16 Chang, Felix K., Chinas Naval Rise and the South China Sea: An operational Assessment, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Winter 2012, http://www.fpri.org/articles/2012/01/chinas-naval-rise-and-south-china-sea-operational-assessment. Truy cp 15/5/2015. 17 McDonough, David, Unveiled: Chinas New Naval Base in the South China Sea, The National Interest, 20/3/2015, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/unveiled-chinas-new-naval-base-the-south-china-sea-12452. Truy cp 15/5/2015.

7

tit n su thnh t ny, m cp n nhng yu t khc trong l thuyt ca Mahan

gip lm r hn chin lc ca hi qun Trung Quc ti bin ng.

H thng ca l thuyt ca Mahan khng ch cp ti cc thnh t ca quyn lc bin,

m cn cp ti cc cch thc gip duy tr v trin khai sc mnh trn bin: bao gm

kim sot mt bin (command of the sea) v s dng mt bin (use of the sea).

Kim sot mt bin cp ti cc yu t qun s, trong khi s dng mt bin hng

v cc yu t kinh t. C hai b sung v h tr ln nhau, gip mt quc gia c y

cng c khng nh sc mnh trn bin ca mnh. Trng tm vn l kim sot mt

bin, nh Mahan khng nh: , nhng cuc ng c th chuyn ho v nhng l

do khc nhau, nhng cui cng vn l kim sot cho c mt bin.18 Kim sot mt

bin l nhim v ca hi qun, khng phi l vic bt mt vi con tu ring l hay on

tu vn ti, d l ng, c th lm lung lay sc mnh quc gia, m s vt tri hn hn

i th trn mt bin, sc ui hm i ch hay chi cho php h xut hin nh nhng

k ang tho chy.19 Theo Mahan, tranh ginh quyn kim sot mt bin mi mi

vn l nhng tc nhn v i trong lch s th gii.

Yu t u tin kim sot mt bin l mt quc gia phi s hu cho c mt lc

lng hi qun mnh. Trong ton b cc tc phm ca mnh, Mahan u nhn mnh n

vai tr ca lc lng hi qun v chin lc hi qun. Ni cch khc, h thng cc l

thuyt ca Mahan xoay quanh vic s dng lc lng hi qun bo v cc li ch v

mt thng mi v kinh t ca mt quc gia. Chin lc ca hi qun c mc tiu l

thit lp, ng h v lm gia tng, c trong thi bnh ln thi chin, sc mnh trn bin ca

mt t nc.20 Tt c su thnh t sc mnh bin m Mahan cp cng xoay

quanh vic lm th no c th xy dng c mt lc lng hi qun mnh, da trn

cc li th a l (gip b tr hi qun), con ngi (vn ho, kinh nghim hi chin), v

chnh sch (chnh sch u tin hi qun, ng tu). Tm li, Alfred Thayer Mahan

quan nim mt quc gia c sc mnh bin th s tr thnh mt cng quc hng mnh,

v sc mnh bin ca mt quc gia ch yu c suy gin thnh sc mnh hi qun, tc

l vo kha cnh qun s ca quyn lm ch trn bin.21

18 Mahan, Alfred T., nh hng ca sc mnh trn bin i vi lch s, 1660-1783, Phm Nguyn Trng dch, NXB Tri Thc, 2013, trang 37. 19 Mahan, Alfred T., tld, trang 18. 20 Mahan, Alfred T., tld, trang 61. 21 Nguyn Vn Dn, a chnh tr trong chin lc v chnh sch pht trin quc gia, NXB Khoa hc X hi, H Ni, 2011, trang 53.

8

Trong cc tc phm ca Mahan, ng cng nhn mnh ti vic lc lng hi qun phi

lun gi xu hng tn cng. Cng v xu hng ny m nhiu lc lng hi qun nc

xanh trn th gii sau ny, k c ca Hoa K, b qua xu hng phng th, v d nh

bo v cc i tu thng mi hay phng chng thu li.22 Mahan cng cho rng phng

th b bin ch mang li cc gi tr ti thiu, hi qun khng phi dnh cho mt mc

tiu nh vy. i vi v chin lc gia ny, bo v b bin l mt yu t mang tnh

phng th, trong khi lc lng hi qun phi c s dng trong mc tiu tn cng.23

ng cho rng vic ch ng cng lm nhim v phng th khin cho sc mnh ca

c mt hm i b lng ph, ng thi tc ng ti tinh thn v k nng ca thu th. Khi

th lc lng hi qun t b th mnh ca mnh ri.24 Mahan vit rng: mt lc

lng hi qun ch lm nhim v phng th l hon ton sai nguyn tc, thc t rng c

trng ca mt lc lng hi qun l di ng, trong khi phng th th ng l ng yn

mt ch.25

Yu t th ba trong cc phng thc gip tng cng kim sot mt bin chnh l chim

gi cc thuc a nc ngoi. Cc thuc a va ng vai tr quan trng gip quc gia

khai thc mt bin, li va c th gip hi qun tng cng kim sot mt bin.

Thuc a to ra nhng im tr n v tip t cho nhng i thuyn thng mi hay

thuyn chin hot ng di ngy trn bin. Ngoi ra, theo Mahan, cc trm dng chn

trn ng hng hi nhiu khi mang mc ch phng th v chin tranh, ng vai tr

nh cc cc v tr trng yu mang tnh chin lc.26 Ni tm li, khi quyn lc hi qun

v thng mi ca mt quc gia lan rng ra khp cc vng bin trn th gii, th vic

thit lp thuc a l iu hin nhin. Cc thuc a v cc im nt chin lc gip cho

lc lng hi qun c th d dng kim sot cc ng hng hi quan trng, qua kim

sot hon ton mt bin.

22 Vego, Milan, Naval Classical Thinkers and Operational Art, Joint Military Operations Department, The Unites States Naval War College, 2009, trang 3, https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/85c80b3a-5665-42cd-9b1e-72c40d6d3153/NWC-1005-NAVAL-CLASSICAL-THINKERS-AND-OPERATIONAL-.aspx. Truy cp 18/5/2015. 23 Crowl, Philip A., Alfred Thayer Mahan: The Naval Historian, in Peter Paret, editor, Makers of Modern Strategy. From Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1986, trang 458-59. 24 Mahan, Alfred T., Naval Strategy Compared and Contrasted with the Principles and Practice of Military Operations on Land, Little, Brown and Company, Boston, 1911, trang 153. 25 Mahan, Alfred T., Naval Strategy Compared and Contrasted with the Principles and Practice of Military Operations on Land, trang 132. 26 Mahan, Alfred T., nh hng ca sc mnh trn bin i vi lch s, 1660-1783, trang 68.

9

Ngy nay, kim sot mt bin l xu hng ch o ca hi qun Hoa K, lc lng hi

qun c nh gi l ng u th gii. Trong ba yu t chnh ca kim sot mt bin

m Mahan cp, c mt s yu t li thi v mt s yu t vn cn mang gi tr

chin lc. Nu nhn trn bn hin nay, trong tng s 192 quc gia c Lin Hip

Quc cng nhn, 148 nc tip gip vi bin. Ngy nay, trong bi cnh ton cu ho, vn

ti hng hi khng da vo ch mt cng ty hay mt quc gia no c. Bin c hin ti

khng phi l c quyn s hu ca bt k quc gia no, v chin tranh hay cc cng c

bo lc hin nay khng phi l u tin chnh sch hng u nh trong thi k trc y.

V vy, quan im ca Mahan v gi vng xu hng tn cng hon ton li thi.

Vi Mahan, hi qun phi tn cng v trong mt trn chin, tiu dit hon ton hm i

ca ch l u tin hng u. Mc tiu l khng cho php hi qun i ch c th gng

dy, v qua kim sot mt bin. Nh Trung Quc nhn mnh trong cu u tin ca

Sch trng Quc phng mi nht ca nc ny rng: Ho bnh, pht trin, hp tc v li

ch chung l mt ln sng khng th cng c ca thi i. Trong tng lai gn,

mt cuc chin tranh th gii l iu khng th xy ra, v tnh hnh quc t vn s ch

yu l ho bnh.27 V mc tiu ny, hi qun Trung Quc s dch chuyn dn t chin

lc phng th bin gn (offshore waters defense) sang bo v cc vng bin xa

(open seas protection) vi trng tm vn l nhn mnh vo phng th mt cch ch

ng.28

Yu t li thi th hai trong cc lun im ca Mahan chnh l chim gi cc thuc a

nc ngoi. Thi k thc dn v cc cuc chin tranh ginh c lp tri qua hn na

th k. Cc cng quc hin ti, vi u th v ti chnh v mng li ng minh, p dng

li th a l theo mt cch thc khc. Hoa K chnh l mt v d c th. Hin nay, nc

M l cng quc c s hin din qun s mnh m nht trn th gii.29 Qun i Hoa

K c cc cn c qun s ri rc trn ton th gii m khng cn phi tin hnh xm

chim thuc a. Theo c tnh ca B Quc phng Hoa K nm 2013, nc ny c 598

cn c qun s nc ngoi, m trong ch yu tp trung ti c, Nht Bn v Hn

27 Johnson, Keith, Chinas Military Blueprint: Bigger Navy, Bigger Global Role, Foreign Policy, 26/5/2015. http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/26/chinas-military-blueprint-bigger-navy-bigger-global-role/. Truy cp 27/5/2015 28 Johnson, Keith, tld. 29 Lord, Carnes and Erickson, Andrew S., Bases for Americas Asia Pacific Rebalance, The Diplomat, 2/5/2014, http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/bases-for-americas-asia-pacific-rebalance/. Truy cp 27/5/2015.

10

Quc.30 Hoa K, thng qua mi quan h ng minh v cc hip c c k kt mt

cch t nguyn vi cc nc khc, c kh nng m rng kh nng hin din qun s

khp mi ni m khng cn s dng v lc. iu ny khc so vi Mahan trong cch tip

cn, nhng v bn cht vn khng thay i: c gng hin din ti cc im nt chin lc

quan trng. V th, lun im ca Mahan hin ti c th c gii thch theo cch khc:

xy dng mt mng li lin minh rng ln, gip nhanh chng dch chuyn ngun lc

qun s ca mnh ra bn ngoi.

3. Chin lc hi qun ca Trung Quc ti bin ng

Xuyn sut trong lch s k t khi lp quc vo nm 1949 cho n nay, chin lc hi

qun ca Trung Quc qua hai ln thay i. i cng vi thay i v mt chin lc tt

nhin l nhng thay i v mt bi cnh, tc ng cng nh nng lc thc s ca hi

qun Trung Quc (PLAN). u tin l s thay i t chin lc phng th gn b

(near-coast defense) cho ti gia thp k 1980 c i thnh phng th ch ng ti

cc vng bin gn (near-seas active defense), v sau cho n gia nhng nm 2000

l tc chin bin xa (far-seas operations) m Chng xm nhp/T chi tip cn (Anti

Access/Area Denial, vit tt l A2/AD) chnh l giai on khi u trong chin lc

mi nht . Hng n ca A2/AD v mt tc chin v k thut i vi Trung Quc

n gin l y cc mi e do ra cng xa t lin cng tt, qua to ra sc mnh

phng th cho cc vng bin, lnh th v li ch ca nc ny31. Cc nhn t ch yu

thc y nhng thay i trong chin lc hi qun Trung Quc xut pht t nhn thc

ca gii lnh o v cc mi e do trc mt cng nh lu di; nng lc thc s ca

qun i thng qua p dng khoa hc cng ngh; mc hi nhp v m ca nn

kinh t v cui cng l vai tr c nhn ca cc lnh o dn s ln qun s Trung Quc.32

30 Department of Defense, U.S., Base Structure Report 2013, http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/bsr/Base%20Structure%20Report%202013_Baseline%2030%20Sept%202012%20Submission.pdf. Truy cp 28/5/2015. 31 V cn bn, chin lc hi qun hin ti ca Trung Quc nhm thc hin 4 mc tiu chnh: (1) bo v ton vn thng nht lnh th, y l nhm vo i Loan; (2) bo v ch quyn quc gia ti cc tranh chp lnh hi xung quanh Trung Quc (bao gm cc tranh chp ti bin ng v bin Hoa ng l trng tm); (3) chng li cc mi e do qun s t bn ngoi; v (4) bo v cc tuyn ng giao thng hng ho v nng lng quan trng trn bin vn mang tnh sng cn i vi s pht trin kinh t ca Trung Quc. 32 K t nhng nm 1980, sau khi nghin cu v cc cuc chin tranh ca Hoa K ti Trung ng, Vit Nam hay ti Ban Cng, qun i Trung Quc (PLA) dn nhn thc c tm quan trng ca cng ngh. S p o v s lng khng cn l mt yu t quyt nh trn chin trng, thay vo cht lng cng ngh v kh mi chnh l yu t ch cht. Hoa K vi u th v cng ngh qun s d dng lm ch bu tri v mt bin, bin nhng chin trng tr thnh sn nh v nh lm ch c c cuc chin.

11

Chin lc hi qun ca Trung Quc hin ti do cng chu nh hng mnh m ca

trng phi hin thc ch ngha vn ni ln trong gii hc gi, qun i v hoch nh

chnh sch Bc Kinh k t nm 2009.33 Cho ti hin ti, c th thy i th chnh v

mt tc chin hi qun ca Trung Quc chnh l Hoa K, cng quc hin ti ang thng

tr v mc qun s ti Chu Thi Bnh Dng.

Cc chin lc cp trn thay i theo nhn thc ca gii lnh o Trung Quc v

vai tr ca bin v chin lc bin. PLAN pht trin hai thut ng khc nhau nhng

li c quan h mt thit vi nhau: th nht l haiquan ( - quyn v li ch trn bin)

v th hai l haifang ( - phng v bin).34 Trong khi thut ng th nht nhn mnh

cc li ch v lut php v kinh t, th thut ng th hai li nhn mnh ti qun s v

quc phng. Tc gi Trung Quc Ngu Bo Thnh () trong mt bi vit nm 2000

cho rng Trung Quc ang s hu gc nhn tng i hp v haiquan, bao gm bo v

li ch ca Trung Quc ti cc khu vc ven bin, cc vng bin gn cng nh khu vc

EEZ.35 Ngy nay, cc yu t ny c m rng hn, bao gm cc tuyn ng hng

hi quc t v ti cc vng nc quc t. Yu t haifang cng c m rng v mt khi

nim vo gia nhng nm 1990. Cc hc gi Trung Quc cho rng nc ny khng nn

coi cc vng bin xung quanh l mt ci ho n thun c s dng bo v Trung

Quc i lc na.36 Ni tm li, vai tr ca hi qun trong vic bo v nn kinh t Trung

Quc c m rng khng ch cc khu vc ven b bin, m cn ti cc khu vc bin c

rng ln hn: cc nhm o tranh chp, cc vng c quyn kinh t nhiu ti nguyn, v

cc tuyn ng hng hi quan trng i vi nn kinh t Trung Quc.

Trong bi cnh ton cu ho v qu trnh ph thuc ln nhau gia tng nhanh chng,

hng ra bin v tr thnh mt cng quc bin tr thnh trng tm trong vic gip

Trung Quc m bo li ch quc gia. duy tr mt tc pht trin kinh t cao, qua Da trn s k tha v pht huy cc chin lc trc cho ph hp vi tnh hnh mi, A2/AD c tip tc c nng cp v pht trin. Xem thm Nan Li, The Evolution of Chinas Naval Strategy and Capabilities: From Near Coast and Near Seas to Far Seas, trong The Chinese Navy: Expanding Capabilities, Evolving Roles, ed. Phillip C. Saunders et al, Washington. D.C, National Defense University Press, 2011, trang 109-110. 33 Shambaugh, David, Coping with a Conflicted China, The Washington Quaterly, 34:1, 2011, trang 12-13. 34 Fravel, M. Taylor and Liebmen, Alexander, Beyond the Moat: The PLANs Evolving Interests and Potential Influence, trong The Chinese Navy: Expanding Capabilities, Evolving Roles, ed. Phillip C. Saunders et al, Washington. D.C, National Defense University Press, 2011, trang 42. 35[Lu Bo Thnh], [T quyn li trn bin ti quyn li hi qun trn bin], [Tp ch Hi qun ng i], no.S1,2000, trang 32. 36 Fravel, M. Taylor and Liebmen, Alexander, tld, trang 42.

12

gip n nh x hi v cng c quyn lc ca mnh, ng Cng sn Trung Quc

(CSTQ) phi duy tr mt cch hiu qu an ninh kinh t v an ninh nng lng. Cc

lung ngoi thng cng nh cc lung du m trn bin c coi l huyt mch cung

cp a phn nng lng cho ton b nn kinh t Trung Quc. Mt khi cc huyt mch

ny b phong to, ton b nn kinh t Trung Quc s ngng tr v gy h qu tiu cc ti

n nh v pht trin x hi. C th thy, cc mc tiu kinh t l mt phn quan trong

khin cho lc lng hi qun Trung Quc ngy cng c u t hin i ho nhanh

chng. Nh Mahan vit: s cn thit ca lc lng hi qun, theo ngha hp ca t

ny, xut pht t s tn ti ca i tu vn ti dn s v s bin mt nu ngi ta khng

cn vn ti theo ng bin na.37 Tuy hot ng thng mi hin i a dng v

phc tp hn rt nhiu, song vai tr m bo an ninh ca hi qun vn khng thay i,

thm ch tm quan trng cn c th tng ln do cc yu t mi nh cng ngh v tm

quan trng ca thng mi gia tng.

Tc chin bin xa k tha v m rng mt s ni dung ca phng th ch ng ti

cc vng bin gn, m tiu biu hn c chnh l hai khi nim a l chui o th

nht ko di t Nht Bn (cc qun o ca Nht pha nam nh Okinawa, Senkaku),

qua i Loan, Philippines v bao trm hon ton bin ng v chui o th hai ko

di t qun o Nht Bn, i qua qun o Northern Mariana, o Guam, quc o

Micronesia, Palau v ko di v pha nam xung o Borneo, Indonesia. Hai khi nim

ny c a ra ln u tin vo gia nhng nm 1980 v c thc y bi ng Tiu

Bnh v Nguyn T lnh Hi qun Trung Quc Lu Thanh Hoa trong cc bi vit ca

ng.38 Cho ti hin ti, gi tr chin lc ca c hai chui o ny vn khng thay i.

Tc chin bin xa i hi phi xy dng c mt lc lng hi qun Trung Quc

hng mnh c kh nng tc chin ti khu vc bin nm ngoi Chui o th nht v tin

st ti vng ngoi ca Chui o th hai v thm ch l xa hn: mt vng bin rng ln

ko di t Ty Bc Thi Bnh Dng cho ti pha ng n Dng.39 y l bc

tip ni chin lc phng th ch ng ti cc vng bin gn trc y khi Hi qun

Trung Quc c yu cu hot ng mt cch hu hiu ti cc vng bin pha bn trong

Chui o th nht (bin gn).

37 Mahan, Alfred T., nh hng ca sc mnh trn bin i vi lch s, 1660-1783, trang 68 38 Li, Nan, tld, trang 116. 39 Li, Nan, tld, trang 129.

13

Yu t lm ch mt bin ca Mahan c nhn thc r rng hn thng qua phn tch qu

trnh pht trin chin lc hi qun Trung Quc nh cp trn, c bit l chin

lc phng th cc vng bin gn. Trong cc ti liu cng khai v cc bi vit bn v

hc thuyt qun s ca cc chuyn gia Trung Quc, PLA nhn mnh tm quan trng ca

c tn cng ln phng th, v cho rng tn cng mang tm quan trng rt ln.40 c th

s hu mt nng lc mnh, Trung Quc s khng cn cch no khc ngoi vic phi

hin i ho nhanh chng lc lng khng qun v hi qun ca mnh. u t cho qun

i gia tng nhanh chng. K t nm 1988, ngn sch quc phng ca Trung Quc nm

no cng tng trn hai ch s, v cho n nm 2015 c d on s t tng 10,1% so

vi nm 2014 t 141 t USD, ng th hai th gii ch sau Hoa K.41 Trong nm 2014,

ch tnh ring hi qun, Trung Quc cho ng mi v h thu khng di 60 tu chin

mi v trong nm 2015, con s cng l tng t.42 Theo bo co ca C quan tnh bo

hi qun Hoa K (ONI), Trung Quc ang ci thin cht lng ca cc loi v kh, tp

trung vo tc chin chng tu mt nc vi cc loi khu trc hm, tun dng hm v tu

ngm trang b tn la c th tn cng bn ngoi ng chn tri.43 Ngoi ra, kh nng

phng khng v chng ngm hm i, vn l mt im yu ca hi qun Trung Quc,

cng ang dn dn c ci thin. C th thy vic Trung Quc khng ngng xy dng

v hin i ho hi qun l phn nh r rng nht mt trong nhng yu t gip kim sot

mt bin: s hu mt lc lng hi qun mnh.

Trong vng bin gn, cc chin thut cng l khc nhau i vi nhng i tng khc

nhau. C th tm chia khu vc bin bn trong Chui o th nht thnh 2 phn: phn

pha Bc t i Loan, i qua bin Hoa ng cho ti bin Hong Hi; v phn pha Nam

t i Loan xung bin ng. Khi i u vi mt lc lng hi qun hng mnh ng

hng u chu nh Nht Bn, li c Lin minh M - Nht lm hu thun, Trung Quc

la chn cch tip cn thn trng hn mc d thng l bn gy hn trc. Hu nh tt

40 Dean, Cheng, Sea Power and the Chinese State: Chinas Maritime Ambitions, Backrouder No. 2576, 11/07/2011. 41 Reuters, China to raise defense budget 10,1 pct this year in high-tech drive, 5/3/2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/05/china-parliament-defence-idUSL4N0W704220150305. Truy cp 19/5/2015. 42 Office of Naval Intelligence, The PLA Navy: New Capabilities and Missions for the 21st Century, 2015, trang 13, http://www.oni.navy.mil/Intelligence_Community/china_media/2015_PLA_NAVY_PUB_Print_Low_Res.pdf. Truy cp 27/5/2015. 43 Office of Naval Intelligence, tld.

14

c cc loi tu chin, tu ngm v my bay ti tn nht trong lc lng PLAN u tp

trung ti cc qun khu ven bin nhm i ph vi lin minh qun s M - Nht.

i vi cc nc nh hn vi tim lc qun s ch mc trung bnh, Trung Quc li p

dng cc bin php gy hn quyt lit v mnh m hn. Bc Kinh cng chim hon

ton qun o Hong Sa (1974) ca Vit Nam, cng nh nh chim mt s bi cn ti

Trng Sa (1988) nhm mc tiu khng ch mt b phn rt quan trng trong Chui o

th nht ny. y l bc u tin trong chui cc hnh ng nhm chim ly cc im

nt chin lc, hay ni cch khc l chin c cc v tr mang tnh chin lc bn trong

khu vc chui o th nht.

ng thi vi vic tng cng sc mnh ca Hm i Nam Hi, mt chin thut c

Trung Quc s dng rt thng xuyn trong thi gian gn y chnh l chin lc ci

bp (cabbage strategy). Chin lc ci bp s dng nhiu lp tu khc nhau vi mc

tiu tm n du ch quyn ca nhng quc gia khc nm trong tranh chp: lp u tin

chnh l cc tu c; lp th hai l cc tu bn qun s ca cc lc lng chp php bin

ca cc c quan mang tnh dn s 44; v cui cng mi l lc lng hi qun chuyn

nghip. Chin lc ci bp, cng vi A2/AD, gip Trung Quc kim sot mt cch

hu hiu hn ch quyn cng nh cc nt tht chin lc nh Hong Sa hay Trng Sa

ti vng pha Nam ca Chui o th nht.

Vic a vo hot ng tu sn bay Liu Ninh cng phn no thc hin mc tiu ,

khi bn thn Liu Ninh c bin ch vo Hm i Nam Hi ph trch khu vc bin

ng. Tuy nhin ch mt mnh Liu Ninh thi l cha , phng th ch ng ti cc

vng bin gn i hi PLAN phi thit lp cc cn c hu cn hay cc thnh ph hi

qun nhm duy tr hu cn cng nh bo m tc chin cho cc nhm chin u quy m

nh. Vic ny s c m bo bng cch xy dng nhng cn c hi qun trn b hay

xa b c kh nng ch huy kim sot, phng th ch ng, ng qun v neo u, h tr

k thut hay thm ch l gip qun nhn gii tr.45 Cc cn c nh vy ng mt vai tr

quan trng trong vic m bo duy tr mt kh nng kim sot lu di v rng ln ti

khp cc vng bin trong Chui o th nht, v lm c s PLAN m rng sang

Chui o th hai.

44 International Crisis Group, Stirring Up the South China Sea, Asia Report No. 223, 23.4.2012, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/223-stirring-up-the-south-china-sea-i.pdf. Truy cp 20.9.2014. 45 Li, Nan, tld, trang 130.

15

Chui ngc trai trn bin i km vi khi nim con ng t la trn bin m Trung

Quc ang tch cc qung b v xy dng chnh l minh chng r nt nht cho bc i

ny. Hai khi nim ny l ging hay khc nhau s c nhiu cch din gii, do chui ngc

trai v thc cht do mt hc gi Hoa K a ra trc tin vo nm 2005.46 Trung Quc

c th s dng thut ng con ng t la trn bin nh l mt cch mm ho

khi nim chui ngc trai vn khin cc nc khc lo ngi v kh nng bnh trng

sc mnh qun s ca mnh.47 Chnh v th, chui ngc trai hay con ng t la trn

bin c th mang hai mc ch khc nhau nhng h tr cho nhau, cng hon ton ph

hp vi hai khi nim haiquan v haifang. Cc cng bin trong chui ngc trai cng lc

s gia tng cc li ch thng mi v nng lng cho Trung Quc, ng thi cng s

c tn dng nhm lm cn c hu cn hay tip liu cho PLAN.

Vic Trung Quc bt u chin dch o ho ti Trng Sa trong thi gian gn y,

nu t trong tng th nh trn, s tr nn r rng hn v mt chin lc. Vi vic xy

dng cc cn c c ngi , c th cho php my bay ct h cnh trn cc ng bng

di nh trn t lin mang li li th kim sot rt ln cho PLAN ti khu vc pha nam

bin ng, khi tu sn bay Liu Ninh vn ang trong qu trnh th nghim chy th.48

Trung Quc v ang m rng 5 trn 9 thc th a l m nc ny chim ng ti

Trng Sa (gm Gaven; T Ngha; Gc Ma; Chu Vin; Ch Thp), trong

Bc Kinh ang xy dng mt ng bng di 3.000 mt ti Ch Thp. Hc gi

Alexander Vuving nh gi vic Trung Quc m rng o nh ang chi mt vn c

vy, m mc tiu cui cng khng g khc ngoi m rng kim sot hon ton khu vc

bin ng.49 Hai trong ba yu t chnh m Vuving cp nh l trng tm ca chin

dch o ho l: kim sot c hu ht cc im chin lc v bin nhng v tr

thnh nh trng im hu cn v cn c gip trin khai sc mnh hiu qu.50

46 Xem China builds up strategic sea lanes, The Washington Times, 17.1.2005, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/jan/17/20050117-115550-1929r/. Truy cp 20.9.2014. 47 Shannon Tiezzi, The Maritime Silk Road Vs. The String of Pearls, The Diplomat, 13.2.2014, http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/the-maritime-silk-road-vs-the-string-of-pearls/. Truy cp 20.9.2014. 48 Xem China plans artificial island in disputed Spratlys chain in South China Sea, South China Morning Post, 8/7/2014, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1527059/china-plans-artificial-island-disputed-spratlys-chain-south-china-sea, Truy cp 20/9/2014. 49 Vuving, Alexander, Chinas Grand-Strategy Challenge: Creating Its Own Islands in the South China Sea, Tha National Interest, 8/12/2014, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-grand-strategy-challenge-creating-its-own-islands-the-11807. Truy cp 20/5/2015 50 Vuving, Alexander, tld.

16

Tu chung li, chin lc hi qun ca Trung Quc, m c bit l chin lc phng th

ti cc vng bin gn mang mt s yu t cn bn ca hc thuyt Mahan. Th nht,

nhim v ca hi qun Trung Quc c m rng, t bo v b bin sang bo v cc

vng bin gn, hng ti bo v cc tuyn ng bin thng mi trn bin c. Ni cch

khc, gia thng mi hng hi v lc lng hi qun c mi lin h khng kht nh

nhng g m Mahan cp. Th hai, c th m bo thc hin cc mc tiu chin

lc ca mnh, hi qun Trung Quc, nht l hm i Nam Hi, c tng cng hin

i ho c v mt k chin thut v v kh. Th ba, chin lc bin gn ca Trung Quc

hin ti bin ng, nh phn tch, l dnh quyn kim sot hon ton trn thc t,

c bit l ti khu vc Trng Sa v phn pha nam bin ng. Tuy nhin, r rng l

thuyt ca Mahan khng th gii thch mt cch y nhng g m Trung Quc

ang lm hin nay.

4. Nhng im cn b sung qua lng knh ca Mahan

Cc quan im ca Mahan tr nn ni ting t cui th k 18 u th k 19, thi k m

cc loi tu hi nc vn ang thng tr mt bin. Hin ti, trong k nguyn ton cu ho

th k 21, mt s yu t m Mahan cp hoc l li thi, hoc cha xut hin

trong khong thi gian . Ti bin ng, c th k ti ba thiu st trong hc thuyt ca

Mahan. Th nht l s ni ln ca tu ngm v lc lng khng qun, vn l nhng loi

v kh c kh nng thay i chin trng; th hai l s xut hin ca cc lc lng chp

php bin bn qun s bao gm tu c v cc lc lng tun duyn; v th ba l s pht

trin nhanh chng ca khoa hc cng ngh.

Tc chin di trong lng bin v trn khng trong thi k Mahan l nhng khi nim

hon ton mi, hoc cha xut hin. Trong cc tc phm ca Mahan hu nh khng

cp g ti vai tr cng nh sc mnh tc chin ca hai loi binh chng tu ngm hay

khng qun hi qun. Ngy nay, hai loi binh chng ny l lc lng nng ct ca hi

qun bt k cng no quc no, to thnh th kim sot ba chiu trn bin (khng qun

tu mt nc tu ngm). l cha ni ti h thng phng th tn la b khin cho

vic b hay tn cng b bin gp nhiu kh khn hn.

Ni mt cch ngn gn, tc chin di lng bin l chin thut s dng tu ngm hay cc

h thng v kh khc trong cc nhim v qun s di mt nc. Cc nhim v ny c

th l phng th hay tn cng bao gm do thm, s dng lc lng c bit hay ph hu,

VietHighlight

17

v hiu ho lc lng k th hoc cc cng trnh di bin.51 Cn lc lng khng qun

hi qun ng vai tr nh tai v mt ca cc hm i tu chin; tin hnh chin tranh

chng ngm v thc hin cc nhim v tn cng, phng th hay h tr khc. Cc bin i

tc chin tu sn bay hin nay c coi biu tng ca sc mnh quc gia, l phng tin

gip cc cng quc, c bit l Hoa K, c th trin khai qun i ca mnh khp mi

ni trn th gii.

R rng, s xut hin ca tu ngm v my bay lm thay i hon ton cch thc m lc

lng hi qun tin hnh chin tranh trn bin. Lc lng tu ngm v khng qun hi

qun s khin cho vic bao vy, hay tn cng tr nn linh hot v a dng hn, nhng s

vn khng thay i c vai tr quan trng ca cc tu chin mt nc. Tm quan trng

ca cc nguyn l chin lc m Mahan t ra, v vai tr ca a l hay kim sot ca

cc im nt chin lc, l khng thay i. Nhng cc chin thut ring r c th t

c cc mc tiu chin lc s thay i, vi tc trin khai chin dch nhanh hn

nhiu so vi thi i ca Mahan. Ti bin ng, mt vng bin kn v nng rng mt

triu km2, vai tr ca tu ngm v khng qun hi qun li cng ni bt. Cuc ua v

trang tu ngm l mt v d rt c th cho yu t ny. Vit Nam gn y chi 2 t USD

t mua 6 tu ngm Kilo t Nga. Malaysia cng xy dng mt cn c tu ngm trn

o Borneo, cn Trung Quc th cng m mt cn c ngm trong lng ni ti Hi

Nam neo u cc tu ngm ht nhn tin tin lp Tn ca Hm i Nam Hi.52 Nhp

khu v kh ca cc quc gia nh Indonesia, Malaysia v Singapore gia tng ln lt

84%, 146% v 722% k t nm 2000, v s tin ny c ch yu chi tiu hin i

ho hi qun cng nh khng qun.53

Mt c im chin lc na khc vi quan im ca Mahan m cc quc gia nh Vit

Nam hay Trung Quc ang s dng hin nay: cc lc lng chp php bin bn qun s

nh cc lc lng bo v ngh c hay cnh st bin. ng Nam , Vit Nam l quc

gia duy nht c mt c ch dn qun bin chnh thc. Lc lng dn qun bin (mt

phn ca lc lng dn qun t v) vn l mt trong ba b phn ca cc lc lng v

trang nhn dn Vit Nam. V pha Trung Quc, lc lng chp php bin ca nc ny 51 Clark, Bryan, The Emerging Era in Undersea Warfare, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. 52 Federation of American Scientists, New Chinese SSBN Deploys to Hainan Island, 24/4/2008, http://fas.org/blogs/security/2008/04/new-chinese-ssbn-deploys-to-hainan-island-naval-base/. Truy cp 23/5/2015. 53 Kaplan, Robert D., Asias Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific, Random House, New York, 2014, trang 19.

VietHighlight

18

a dng v c sc mnh ng k. Hin ti c tm c quan hng hi khng trc thuc cc

n v ca hi qun Trung Quc. Trong , lc lng ti hi gim thuc C quan Gim

st hng hi nh nc (CMS) v i tu ng chnh thuc C quan Thi hnh lut Thu sn

(FLC) l hai c quan c thc lc tng i ln. Cc bin i tu hi gim hay ng chnh

xut hin rt thng xuyn ti cc khu vc m Trung Quc tuyn b ch quyn hay cc

khu vc tranh chp. S kin dn khoan HD-981 khi Bc Kinh trin khai hn 100 tu hi

gim v hi cnh chnh l minh chng r rng cho yu t ny. Lc lng dn qun bin

lng m Mn Hi Nam cng c coi l mt lc lng ni ting, c nh gi l lc

lng tin phong trong bo v ch quyn bin o Trung Quc v l hnh mu cho lc

lng dn qun bin cc a phng khc.54

Mahan cho rng chin lc hi qun ch yu xoay quanh vai tr ca lc lng hi qun

chnh thng, v phi gi xu hng lun lun tn cng. Tuy nhin, trong bi cnh hin

quc t hin nay, vic lun gi xu hng tn cng l khng ph hp khi mi tranh chp

u phi c gii quyt bng cc bin php ho bnh. Cc lc lng chp php bn qun

s hay dn qun bin s ng vai tr thay th cho hi qun, gip bo v ch quyn, kim

sot lnh hi ng thi lm gim nguy c xung t. y chnh l im khc bit cn bn

so vi l thuyt ca Mahan. Vic khng mang cc loi v kh nng khin cho cc lc

lng chp php ny tr thnh cng c hu hiu, gip cho Trung Quc thc hin thnh

cng chin thut tm thc ch quyn ca cc quc gia khc.

Yu t cui cng c xt ti l yu t khoa hc cng ngh, mt yu t lun lun lun

thay i. Trong thi k ca Mahan, cc lc lng hi qun ang dch chuyn t thi k

thuyn bum sang k nguyn ca tu hi nc. Yu t cng ngh thay i khin cho mt

s chin thut cng phi thay i theo, nhng Mahan li cho rng iu kin tc chin v

v kh thay i, nhng c th ng u vi iu kin tc chin v s dng thnh

cng v kh ta phi tn trng nhng bi hc bt bin ca lch s trong chin thut ca

chin trng hoc trong nhng chin dch ln ca chin tranh c a vo trong thut

ng rng ln hn gi l chin lc.55

Nhn xt trn ca Mahan cha hn l chnh xc, c bit trong bi cnh khoa hc

cng ngh thay i mt cch chng mt nh hin nay. S thay i ca yu t cng ngh

54 Erickson, Andrew S., Kenedy, Conor M., Tanmen Militia: Chinas Maritime Rights Protection Vanguard, Tha National Interest, 6/5/2015, http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/tanmen-militia-china%E2%80%99s-maritime-rights-protection-vanguard-12816. Truy cp 23/5/2015. 55 Mahan, Alfred T., nh hng ca sc mnh trn bin i vi lch s, 1660-1783, trang 44.

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hon ton c th sc thay i lun c chin lc tc chin, c bit khi n c lin quan

ti cc vn qun s. Chng hn, s pht trin ca cc loi my bay khng ngi li

(UAV) hay cng ngh r-bt khin cho Hoa K phi dn dn nghin cu mt hc

thuyt ring cho vn ny.56 bin ng, y l yu t quan trng cn phi c cn

nhc khi hoch nh bt c chin lc hi qun no. S pht trin nhanh v mnh ca cc

cng ngh nh do thm, ra-a, tc chin in t hay an ninh mng khin cho mi trng

tc chin thay i hon ton so vi thi k ca Mahan. iu ny bin cng ngh tr

thnh mt yu t khng th thiu trong vic nh hnh nn mt chin lc hi qun ph

hp.

56 D n 20YY Warfare ca Trung tm An ninh Hoa K mi (Centre for a New American Security). Xem ti http://www.cnas.org/research/us-defense-policy-and-military-operations/20yy-warfare-initiative

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