تجارة الفوركس
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Transcript of تجارة الفوركس
FOREX Market ParticipantsFOREX Market Participants Market participants include international banks, Market participants include international banks,
their customers, nonbank dealers, FOREX their customers, nonbank dealers, FOREX brokers, and central banks.brokers, and central banks.
Powerd by fx-arabia Powerd by fx-arabia فى متخصص تداول منتدى و موقع اكبر هو ارابيا اكس فى اف متخصص تداول منتدى و موقع اكبر هو ارابيا اكس اف
تعليم به و العربى الوطن فى العربية باللغة فوركس تعليم تعليم به و العربى الوطن فى العربية باللغة فوركس تعليموادارة العمالت تداول و مجانا باحترافية فوركس وادارة تجارة العمالت تداول و مجانا باحترافية فوركس تجارةاكبر و فوركس توصيات و عالية باحترافية فوركس اكبر حسابات و فوركس توصيات و عالية باحترافية فوركس حسابات
, فوركس فى اموالك استثمر فوركس مسابقات , موقع فوركس فى اموالك استثمر فوركس مسابقات موقع FOREX.FOREX.
http://www.fx-arabia.com/index.php/2012-12-09-17-05-50/2012-12-09-17-06-45
London is Most Active FX MarketLondon is Most Active FX Market
Daily Trading Volumes by HourDaily Trading Volumes by Hour
Correspondent Banking Correspondent Banking RelationshipsRelationships
Large commercial banks maintain demand deposit Large commercial banks maintain demand deposit accounts with one another which facilitates the accounts with one another which facilitates the efficient functioning of the forex market.efficient functioning of the forex market.
International commercial banks communicate with International commercial banks communicate with one another with:one another with:• SWIFT: The SWIFT: The SSociety for ociety for WWorldwide orldwide IInterbank nterbank FFinancial inancial TTelecommunications.elecommunications.
• CHIPS: CHIPS: CClearing learing HHouse ouse IInterbank nterbank PPayments ayments SSystem ystem • ECHO ECHO EExchange xchange CClearing learing HHouse ouse LLimited, the first global imited, the first global
clearinghouse for settling interbank FOREX transactions.clearinghouse for settling interbank FOREX transactions.
Correspondent BankingCorrespondent Banking
FX TurnoverFX Turnover
Spot Rate QuotationsSpot Rate Quotations Direct quotationDirect quotation
• the U.S. dollar equivalentthe U.S. dollar equivalent• e.g.e.g. “a Japanese Yen is worth about a “a Japanese Yen is worth about a
penny”penny” Indirect QuotationIndirect Quotation
• the price of a U.S. dollar in the foreign the price of a U.S. dollar in the foreign currencycurrency
• e.g.e.g. “you get 100 yen to the dollar” “you get 100 yen to the dollar”
Spot Rate Quotations
The direct quote for British pound is:
£1 = $1.5627
CountryCountry USD USD equiv equiv FridayFriday
USD equiv USD equiv ThursdayThursday
Currency per Currency per USD FridayUSD Friday
Currency per Currency per USD ThursdayUSD Thursday
Argentina (Peso)Argentina (Peso) 0.33090.3309 0.32920.3292 3.02213.0221 3.03773.0377
Australia (Dollar)Australia (Dollar) 0.59060.5906 0.59340.5934 1.69321.6932 1.68521.6852
Brazil (Real)Brazil (Real) 0.29390.2939 0.28790.2879 3.40253.4025 3.47343.4734
Britain (Pound)Britain (Pound) 1.56271.5627 1.5661.566 0.63990.6399 0.63860.63861 Month Forward1 Month Forward 1.55961.5596 1.56291.5629 0.64120.6412 0.63980.6398
3 Months 3 Months ForwardForward
1.55351.5535 1.55681.5568 0.64370.6437 0.64230.6423
6 Months 6 Months ForwardForward
1.54451.5445 1.54771.5477 0.64750.6475 0.64610.6461
Canada (Dollar)Canada (Dollar) 0.66920.6692 0.67510.6751 1.49431.4943 1.48131.48131 Month Forward1 Month Forward 0.66810.6681 0.67410.6741 1.49681.4968 1.48351.4835
3 Months 3 Months ForwardForward
0.66580.6658 0.67170.6717 1.5021.502 1.48881.4888
6 Months 6 Months ForwardForward
0.6620.662 0.66780.6678 1.51061.5106 1.49751.4975
Spot Rate Quotations
The indirect quote for British pound is:
£.6399 = $1
1.49751.51060.66780.6626 Months Forward
1.48881.5020.67170.66583 Months Forward
1.48351.49680.67410.66811 Month Forward
1.48131.49430.67510.6692Canada (Dollar)
0.64610.64751.54771.54456 Months Forward
0.64230.64371.55681.55353 Months Forward
0.63980.64121.56291.55961 Month Forward
0.63860.63991.5661.5627Britain (Pound)
3.47343.40250.28790.2939Brazil (Real)
1.68521.69320.59340.5906Australia (Dollar)
3.03773.02210.32920.3309Argentina (Peso)
Currency per USD Thursday
Currency per USD Friday
USD equiv Thursday
USD equiv FridayCountry
Spot Rate Quotations
Note that the direct quote is the reciprocal of the indirect quote:
11.5627.6399
1.49751.51060.66780.6626 Months Forward
1.48881.5020.67170.66583 Months Forward
1.48351.49680.67410.66811 Month Forward
1.48131.49430.67510.6692Canada (Dollar)
0.64610.64751.54771.54456 Months Forward
0.64230.64371.55681.55353 Months Forward
0.63980.64121.56291.55961 Month Forward
0.63860.63991.5661.5627Britain (Pound)
3.47343.40250.28790.2939Brazil (Real)
1.68521.69320.59340.5906Australia (Dollar)
3.03773.02210.32920.3309Argentina (Peso)
Currency per USD Thursday
Currency per USD Friday
USD equiv Thursday
USD equiv FridayCountry
The Bid-Ask SpreadThe Bid-Ask Spread The bid price is the price a dealer is The bid price is the price a dealer is
willing to pay you for something.willing to pay you for something. The ask price is the amount the The ask price is the amount the
dealer wants you to pay for the dealer wants you to pay for the thing.thing.
The bid-ask spread is the difference The bid-ask spread is the difference between the bid and ask prices.between the bid and ask prices.
Spot FX tradingSpot FX trading In the interbank market, the In the interbank market, the
standard size trade is about U.S. $10 standard size trade is about U.S. $10 million.million.
A bank trading room is a noisy, A bank trading room is a noisy, active place.active place.
The stakes are high.The stakes are high. The “long term” is about 10 minutes.The “long term” is about 10 minutes.
Cross RatesCross Rates
Suppose that Suppose that SS($/€) = .50($/€) = .50• i.ei.e. $1 = 2 € . $1 = 2 €
and that and that SS(¥/€) = 50(¥/€) = 50• i.ei.e. €1 = ¥50. €1 = ¥50
What must the $/¥ cross rate be?What must the $/¥ cross rate be?$ $ €since ,¥ € ¥
$1 €1 $1 ($ / ¥) .01 or $1 ¥100€2 ¥50 ¥100
S
Triangular ArbitrageTriangular Arbitrage
$
£¥
Credit Lyonnais
S(£/$)=1.50
Credit Agricole
S(¥/£)=85
Barclays
S(¥/$)=120
Suppose we observe these banks posting these exchange rates.
First calculate the implied cross rates to see if an arbitrage exists.
Triangular ArbitrageTriangular Arbitrage
$Credit
Lyonnais
S(£/$)=1.50
Credit Agricole
S(¥/£)=85
Barclays
S(¥/$)=120
80¥1£
120¥1$
1$50.1£
The implied S(¥/£) cross rate is S(¥/£) = 80
Credit Agricole has posted a quote of S(¥/£)=85 so there is an arbitrage opportunity.
So, how can we make money?
Buy the £ @ ¥80; sell @ ¥85. Then trade yen for dollars.
¥ £
Triangular ArbitrageTriangular Arbitrage
$Credit
Lyonnais
S(£/$)=1.50
Credit Agricole
S(¥/£)=85
Barclays
S(¥/$)=120
As easy as 1 – 2 – 3:
1. Sell our $ for £,
2. Sell our £ for ¥,
3. Sell those ¥ for $.¥ £
1
2
3
$
Triangular ArbitrageTriangular Arbitrage
Sell $100,000 for £ at S(£/$) = 1.50
receive £150,000
Sell our £ 150,000 for ¥ at S(¥/£) = 85
receive ¥12,750,000
Sell ¥ 12,750,000 for $ at S(¥/$) = 120receive $106,250
profit per round trip = $ 106,250- $100,000 = $6,250
Spot Foreign Exchange Spot Foreign Exchange MicrostructureMicrostructure
Market Microstructure refers to the Market Microstructure refers to the mechanics of how a marketplace operates.mechanics of how a marketplace operates.
Bid-Ask spreads in the spot FX market:Bid-Ask spreads in the spot FX market:• increase with FX exchange rate volatility and increase with FX exchange rate volatility and • decrease with dealer competition.decrease with dealer competition.
Private information is an important Private information is an important determinant of spot exchange rates.determinant of spot exchange rates.
The Forward MarketThe Forward Market A forward contract is an agreement A forward contract is an agreement
to buy or sell an asset in the future to buy or sell an asset in the future at prices agreed upon today.at prices agreed upon today.
If you have ever had to order an out-If you have ever had to order an out-of-stock textbook, then you have of-stock textbook, then you have entered into a forward contract.entered into a forward contract.
Forward Rate QuotationsForward Rate Quotations The forward market for FOREX involves The forward market for FOREX involves
agreements to buy and sell foreign agreements to buy and sell foreign currencies in the future at prices agreed currencies in the future at prices agreed upon today.upon today.
Bank quotes for 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month Bank quotes for 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month maturities are readily available for forward maturities are readily available for forward contracts.contracts.
Longer-term swaps are available.Longer-term swaps are available.
Forward Rate QuotationsForward Rate Quotations Consider the example from above:Consider the example from above:for British pound, the spot rate is for British pound, the spot rate is $1.5627$1.5627 = = ££1.001.00While the 180-day forward rate is While the 180-day forward rate is $1.5445$1.5445 = = ££1.001.00 What’s up with that?What’s up with that?
Spot Rate Quotations
Clearly the market participants expect that the pound will be worth less in dollars in six months.
1.49751.51060.66780.6626 Months Forward
1.48881.5020.67170.66583 Months Forward
1.48351.49680.67410.66811 Month Forward
1.48131.49430.67510.6692Canada (Dollar)
0.64610.64751.54771.54456 Months Forward
0.64230.64371.55681.55353 Months Forward
0.63980.64121.56291.55961 Month Forward
0.63860.63991.5661.5627Britain (Pound)
3.47343.40250.28790.2939Brazil (Real)
1.68521.69320.59340.5906Australia (Dollar)
3.03773.02210.32920.3309Argentina (Peso)
Currency per USD Thursday
Currency per USD Friday
USD equiv Thursday
USD equiv FridayCountry
Long and Short Forward Long and Short Forward PositionsPositions
If you have agreed to If you have agreed to ssell anything (spot or ell anything (spot or forward), you are “forward), you are “sshort”.hort”.
If you have agreed to buy anything If you have agreed to buy anything (forward or spot), you are “long”.(forward or spot), you are “long”.
If you have agreed to If you have agreed to ssell forex forward, ell forex forward, you are you are sshort.hort.
If you have agreed to buy forex forward, If you have agreed to buy forex forward, you are long.you are long.
Payoff ProfilesPayoff Profiles
0 S180($/¥)
F180($/¥) = .009524
Short positionloss
profit If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot price later falls then you gain.
If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot price later rises then you lose.
Payoff ProfilesPayoff Profiles
loss
0 S180(¥/$)
F180(¥/$) = 105
-F180(¥/$)
profit
Whether the payoff profile
slopes up or down depends upon
whether you use the direct or
indirect quote:
F180(¥/$) = 105 or F180($/¥) = .009524.
short position
Payoff ProfilesPayoff Profiles
loss
0 S180(¥/$)
F180(¥/$) = 105
-F180(¥/$)
When the short entered into this forward contract, he agreed to sell ¥ in 180 days at F180(¥/$) = 105
profitshort position
Payoff ProfilesPayoff Profiles
loss
0 S180(¥/$)
F180(¥/$) = 105
-F180(¥/$)
120
If, in 180 days, S180(¥/$) = 120, the short will make a profit by buying ¥ at S180(¥/$) = 120 and delivering ¥ at F180(¥/$) = 105.
15¥
profitshort position
Payoff ProfilesPayoff Profiles
loss
0 S180(¥/$)
F180(¥/$) = 105
Long position-F180(¥/$)
F180(¥/$) short positionprofit Since this is a zero-sum game,
the long position payoff is the opposite of the short.
Payoff ProfilesPayoff Profiles
loss
0 S180(¥/$)
F180(¥/$) = 105
Long position
-F180(¥/$)profit The long in this forward contract agreed to BUY
¥ in 180 days at F180(¥/$) = 105 If, in 180 days, S180(¥/$) = 120, the long will
lose by having to buy ¥ at S180(¥/$) = 120 and delivering ¥ at F180(¥/$) = 105.
120
–15¥
SWAPSSWAPS A swap is an agreement to provide a A swap is an agreement to provide a
counterparty with something he counterparty with something he wants in exchange for something wants in exchange for something that you want.that you want.
Swap transactions account for Swap transactions account for approximately 56 percent of approximately 56 percent of interbank FX trading, whereas interbank FX trading, whereas outright trades are 11 percent.outright trades are 11 percent.
Forward PremiumForward Premium It’s just the interest rate differential It’s just the interest rate differential
implied by forward premium or discount.implied by forward premium or discount. For example, suppose the € is appreciating For example, suppose the € is appreciating
from from SS($/€) = .5235 to ($/€) = .5235 to FF180180($/€) = .5307($/€) = .5307 The forward premium is given by:The forward premium is given by:
180180,€ $
($ / €) ($ / €) 360 .5307 .5235 .01375($ / €) 180 .5235v
F SfS