Post on 07-Dec-2014
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Kestävä elämäntapa 2050: tulevaisuusskenaariot
kulutuskasvatuksen välineenä
Maria Ritola, Demos Helsinkitwitter: @mariaritola
Tänne pitäisi kuitenkin päästä
Päästöt - 80 %
Energian-kulutus
Talous
Elintaso
Hyvinvointi
2012 2050
Lähde: VNK, Tulevaisuusselonteko 2009
Tulevaisuus on ennakoitavissa, koska tiedämme...
1. investoinneista, jotka on jo tehty.2. ihmisten tulevaisuutta koskevista
toiveista ja suunnitelmista.3. hitaasti muuttuvasta
väestörakenteesta.4. kulttuurin keskeisistä tavoista ja
traditioista.5. syklisistä ja lineaarisista luonnon
prosesseista.
Tulevaisuutta ei voi ennustaa, koska...
1. maailmassa on sattumaa.2. todellisuuteen sisältyy kaoottisia
prosesseja.3. uusi informaatio muokkaa ihmisten
uskomuksia, asenteita ja käyttäytymistä.
4. teknologiset innovaatiot muuttavat käytäntöjä.
Miltä näyttää vuosi 2012?
2025 20302012 2040
Mistä emme tiedä tarpeeksi...
2020
Mitä ”tiedämme” varmuudella...
-Miten valtiot löytävät resursseja yhteiskunnan uudistamiseen?
-Millaisia käyttökulttuureja syntyy ubiikkiteknologiasta?
- Kuinka ihmisten osaamista onnistutaan hyödyntämään entistä paremmin?
-Mikä on teknologian rooli ihmisten elämäntapamuutoksessa?
-teknologian kehitys jatkuu nopeana
- erilaiset jakamiseen ja yhteiskäyttöön perustuvat palvelut yleistyvät ICT:n ansiosta
-merkittävimpien osaamiskeskittymien rooli taloudessa ja koko yhteiskunnan kehityksessä kasvaa
-väestö ikääntyy ja kasvaa => energiaa, luonnonvaroja ja maata henkeä kohti vähemmän
-resurssien niukkuus muuttaa ihmisten elämäntapoja
Tyypillisiä haasteita tulevaisuustyössä:
1.Musta joutsen jää havaitsematta
2.Unohdetaan nykyisen järjestelmän ongelmat
3.Toivottavat teemat ottavat vallan (isoilta asioilta)
Mitä isoja asioita tiedetään varmuudella?
1.Yksilön ääni2.Ajan käyttö3.Ubiikki teknologia4.Peak everything
1. Yksilön ääni
1.Uusilla yksilöillä on tarve ääneen
2.Massatuotanto ei tyydytä sitä
3.Äänen mahdollistavat palvelut “kapitalismin uusi vaihe”
Suomalaisen yhteiskunnan suurin muutos
Suomen yhdistysrekisterissä on noin 130 000 yhdistystä ja
järjestöä, joissa on yhteensä yli 15 miljoonaa jäsentä.
Loppukiri - Helsinki
Keskiarvoa ei ole
Sosiaalinen media loi uuden äänioikeuden
Käyttäjästä tulee palvelun tekijä
Yhteiskunnan rakenteet joutuivat muutospaineen alle.
2. Ajan käyttö
Suomalaiset ovat poissa töistä
Koko maailma on vanha
Työ UniUni Työ
8.00 17.30 22.30
Vapaa-aika
Vapaa-aikaUni
8.00 17.30 22.30
miten vapaa-aika käytetään?
Suomalainen katsoo televisiota ja viettää
aikaa internetissä lähes kolme tuntia päivässä.
Jos sen sijaan kirjoittaisimme
Wikipediaan, olisi suomalaisten voimin
tuotettu 52 Wikipediaa, kaikkine 282
kieliversioineen.
4. Ubiikki teknologia
Kollaboratiivinen kuluttaminen muuttaa liikkumistapoja
Lähde: Mika Mannermaa (2009)
Yhteiskunnan suurin voimavara=yksilö
Elämme montaa aikaa
Rajapinnat ovat samankaltaisia, tulkinnat vaihtelee
Vertaistalous on täällä
Globaalit verkostot ovat käsiemme ulottuvilla
4. Peak everything
A shift in paradigm?
Source: GMO as of 2/28/2011
Source: BBC
Kestävät elämäntavat 2050?
Kulutusperusteiset päästöt
Lähde: Suomen ympäristökeskus, Ari Nissinen, 2009
Lähde: Envimat -projekti
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Kestävä materiaalijalanjälki 2050: 8 tonnia
• per henkilö
• n. 20 kg / päivä, kun suomalaisten keskiarvo tänä päivänä yli 100 kg.
• kutsutaan myös ekologiseksi selkärepuksi
20502012
8000 kg per vuosi
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Paljonko on tonni? 27 tonnia?
• 500 km yksin autolla 13 700 km
• 3000 km julkisilla kulkuneuvoilla 82 100 km
• 6 m2 warm living space 164 m2
• 100 kg meatballs 2737 kg
8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9
Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.
Starting point for your alternative futures
Pandemic technology
Endemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:
Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.
We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.
Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally
exchanged goods).
Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.
MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.
Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through
thinking locally.
8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9
Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.
Starting point for your alternative futures
Pandemic technology
Endemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:
Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.
We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.
Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally
exchanged goods).
Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.
MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.
Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through
thinking locally.
Super Champs Governing the Commons
Local Loops Empathetic Communities
Super Champs ja Empathetic Communities
8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9
Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.
Starting point for your alternative futures
Pandemic technology
Endemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:
Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.
We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.
Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally
exchanged goods).
Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.
MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.
Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through
thinking locally.
Kestävien elämäntapojen ratkaisut
Jaetut tilat. Sisätilojen suunnittelussa korostuu toiminnallisuus ja joustavuus
Ruoantuotannon ja paikallisenergian tee-se-itse ratkaisut paikallistasolla
Oppiminen tekemällä yhdessä.
Parkkipaikat ja kadut hyödynnetty viljelyä varten. Kävely ja pyöräily paikasta toiseen.
1. Mihin tämän skenaarion asioihin kulutuskasvatuksessa on jo kiinnitetty huomiota?
2. Mihin pitäisi keskittyä tulevaisuudessa?
Lyhyet työmatkat, asuminen kaupunkien ytimessä suosittua
Kestävien valintojen trendikkyys ja vahvojen roolimallien seuraaminen
Käyttäjälähtöisesti muotoiltu data auttaa energiaviisaissa päätöksissä - rationaalinen valinta
Kestävien elämäntapojen ratkaisut
Oppiminen joustavasti kaikkialla, kaiken ikäisten keskuudessa: learning, not earning
1. Mihin tämän skenaarion asioihin kulutuskasvatuksessa on jo kiinnitetty huomiota?
2. Mihin pitäisi keskittyä tulevaisuudessa?
Vertaistuotettujen palveluiden läpimurto
Teknologialla varustetut laitteet ja rakennukset: ainutlaatuinen kulutusdata
Mahdollisuus kulutuksen personointiin 3D-printtauksella
Virtuaalinen turismi ja uuden sukupolven tietokonepelit
Ubiikki teknologia muokkaa elämäntapoja liikkumisesta asumiseen
Kestävien elämäntapojen ratkaisut
1. Mihin tämän skenaarion asioihin kulutuskasvatuksessa on jo kiinnitetty huomiota?
2. Mihin pitäisi keskittyä tulevaisuudessa?
8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9
Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.
Starting point for your alternative futures
Pandemic technology
Endemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:
Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.
We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.
Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally
exchanged goods).
Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.
MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.
Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through
thinking locally.
Ihmisten mahdollisuus vaikuttaa yhteiskunnassa nähdään usein näin:
Skenaarioissa toimijarooleja on paljon, ja sitä kautta myös strategioita kestävien elämäntapojen toteuttamiseen, on useita
Miten kulutuskasvatus voi edistää mahdollisimman monia näistä?
Päästöt - 80 %
Energian-kulutus
Talous
Elintaso
Hyvinvointi
2012 2050
Lähde: VNK, Tulevaisuusselonteko 2009
Kiitos!maria.ritola@demos.fitwitter: @mariaritola
www.demos.fiwww.slideshare.fi/demoshelsinki