VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS. LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of
mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction
zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim).
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of
mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction
zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim).
ACTIVE VOLCANOES
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• VERTICAL PLUME • TEPHRA AND ASH• LATERAL BLAST• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS• LAHARS (aka volcanic
landslides)• EARTHQUAKES (related to the
internal movement of lava)• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• HAZARD MAPS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION • EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
LATERAL BLAST
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
CAUSES OF RISK
CAUSES OF RISK
DISASTER LABORATORIES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
WE CONTINUE TO OPERATE WITH A FLAWED PREMISE:
KNOWLEDGE FROM DISASTERS RELATED TO EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS IS ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY NATION WITH PEOPLE AND ASSETS AT
RISK ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES TO BECOME DISASTER
RESILIENT
FACT: IT USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
BEFORE A STRICKEN NATION WILL ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT
POLICIES THAT MOVE IT TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
FACT (continued)
• BUT, THE INTERVAL OF TIME BETWEEN EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CAN BE AS LONG AS 500 OR MORE YEARS.
FACT: MOST UNAFFECTED NATIONS DON’T EVEN TRY TO LEARN ANYTHING NEW FROM ANOTHER NATION’S VOLCANIC
DISASTERS AND DON’T CONSIDER THEM TO BE A BASIS FOR CHANGING
EXISTING POLICIES
ELEVEN OF THE WORLD’S NOST DANGEROUS
VOLCANOES
THE NEXT ERUPTION OF THESE 11 ACTIVE VOLCANOES IS LIKELY TO BE DEVASTATING LOCALLY, REGIONALLY,
AND GLOBALLY
WHAT MAKES THESE 11 VOLCANOES DANGEROUS
• Eyjafjallajökull and Katla (ICELAND)
• Chaiten • Krakatau• Merapi
• Vesuvius • Pinatubo• Mount Rainier• Nevada del Ruiz• Popocatepl• Nyirangongo
(CONGO)
THEIR LOCATION NEAR CITIES AND INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE ROUTES
An eruption of any one of these eleven volcanoes is certain to be devastating to people, their property, their health, the economy, and, sometimes, the regional air space.
Eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano in Southern IcelandA Threat to North American-
European Air Traffic
MARCH 20, 2010
The Eyjafjallajökull and Katla Volcanoes: Southern Iceland
The Eyjafjallajökull (AYA-feeyapla-yurkul) volcano in Southern Iceland,
part of the volcanic process that originally formed Iceland, erupted a
few minutes before midnight on Saturday, March 20th
EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC DISRUPTED: APRIL 15, 2010
An eruption of the Katla volcano, located under the
massive Myrdalsjokull icecap, could cause disastrous local
flooding, explosive blasts, and eruption clouds that would disrupt air traffic between
Europe and the USA.
VOLCANO CHAITEN ERUPTS: CHILE: MAY 3, 2008
CHAITEN ERUPTED AFTER 8,000-10,000 YEAR DORMANCY
•THE 1,200 M (3,550 FT) VOLCANO SENT ASH HIGH INTO THE SKY.• “VOLCANIC EARTHQUAKES WERE TRIGGERED IN THE AREA. •1,500 RESIDENTS EVACUATED, MOSTLY BY BOAT
The Historic 1883 Krakatoa Eruption !
Anak Krakatoa—Son of Krakatoa
KRAKATAU • 26-27 August, 1883; The big one!
http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Krakatau.html
MOUNT MERAPI: INDONESIA
INDONESIA’S MOUNT MERAPI ERUPTED ON MAY & JUNE, 2006
• Mount Merapi emitted lava, debris, and a pyroclastic flow on May 15, but this one was not devastating.
EXPLOSIVENESS OF JUNE 8 ERUPTION SENT 15,000 FLEEING
MOUNT VESUVIUS: ITALY; A THREAT TO NAPLES
MOUNT FUJI: JAPAN; A THREAT TO TOKYO
MT. PINATUBO: THE PHILIPPINES; JUNE 15, 1991
Pinatubo was the second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th
century and the largest to impact a densely populated area.
MOUNT RAINIER: THREAT TO SEATTLE, WASHINGTON (USA)
MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
NEVADA DEL RUIZ: COLOMBIA; A 1988 DISASTER
The lahar generated by the eruption of Nevada del Ruiz buried 25,000 people in the city of Armero as they slept.
POPOCATEPL: MEXICO; A THREAT TO MEXICO CITY
“POPO” AND MEXICO CITY
RUMBLINGS OF ERUPTION OF “POPO” ON JULY 4, 2013
Africa's most active volcano.
NYIRANGONGO: DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO; A THREAT TO GOMA
ERUPTION OF NYIRANGONGO: JANUARY 2, 2010
WARNING:The other 1,489 active
volcanoes can also have dangerous
eruptions anytime.
ERUPTION OF PUYEHUE IN CHILE: FEB, 2012
ERUPTION OF CHAPARRASTIQUE IN EL SALVADOR: DEC., 2013
RUSSIA’S VOLCANO PLOSKY TOLBACHIK
PLOSKY TOLBACHIK SPEWS ASH: JAN. 6, 2013
LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL
• The people who know: 1) what hazards to expect (e.g., vertical ash plume, lateral blast, lava flow, lahar), 2) where and when they will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare for them will survive.
LESSON: TIMELY, REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIOS SAVE LIVES
• The people who have timely, realistic, advance information that facilitates reduction of vulnerabilities, and hence the risks associated with the vertical ash plume, pyroclastic flows, tephra, lava flows, and lahars will survive.
LESSON: TIMELY EARLY WARNING SAVES LIVES
• The people who have timely, accurate, advance information that facilitates evacuation to get our of harm’s way of pyroclastic flows, lava flows, and lahars will survive.
LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE SAVES LIVES
• The timing of emergency response operations, especially the evacuations and the search and rescue operations (limited to “the golden 48 hours)” will save lives
LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES
• The local community’s capacity for emergency health care (i,e., coping with damaged hospitals and medical facilities, lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality) is vital for survival.
LESSON: EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES
• Buildings engineered to withstand the risks from a vertical plume, ash, pyroclastic flows, and tephra that cause damage, collapse, and loss of function, is vital for protecting occupants from death and injury.
LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ALWAYS PROVIDES AID
• The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure earthquake disaster resilience.
YOUR
COMMUNITY
YOUR
COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• MONITORING• HAZARD MAPS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EM RESPONSE• RECOSTRUCTION AND
RECOVERY
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
PILLARS OF VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of a Realistic Building Code
Realistic Volcanic Eruption Disaster Scenarios
Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuations, S and R, and Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Reconstruction & Recovery
THE CHALLENGE:
POLICY CHANGES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
AN UNDER-UTILIZED GLOBAL STRATEGY
To Create Turning Points for Volcano Disaster Resilience
USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER
AND ACCELERATE POLICY CHANGES
MOVING TOWARDS THE MUST-HAPPEN GLOBAL STRATEGYTo Achieve Volcano Disaster
Resilience
INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS WITH POLITICAL SOLUTIONS FOR REALISTIC POLICIES ON PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, DISASTER
SCENARIOS, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, RECONSTRUCTION, AND RECOVERY
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