VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS. LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of

mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction

zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim).

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of

mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction

zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim).

ACTIVE VOLCANOES

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME • TEPHRA AND ASH• LATERAL BLAST• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS• LAHARS (aka volcanic

landslides)• EARTHQUAKES (related to the

internal movement of lava)• “VOLCANIC WINTER”

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• HAZARD MAPS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION • EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

FLYING DEBRIS

VOLCANIC ASH

LAVA FLOWS

LAHARS

TOXIC GASES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

DISASTER LABORATORIES

DISASTER LABORATORIES

WE CONTINUE TO OPERATE WITH A FLAWED PREMISE:

KNOWLEDGE FROM DISASTERS RELATED TO EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS IS ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY NATION WITH PEOPLE AND ASSETS AT

RISK ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES TO BECOME DISASTER

RESILIENT

FACT: IT USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

BEFORE A STRICKEN NATION WILL ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT

POLICIES THAT MOVE IT TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

FACT (continued)

• BUT, THE INTERVAL OF TIME BETWEEN EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CAN BE AS LONG AS 500 OR MORE YEARS.

FACT: MOST UNAFFECTED NATIONS DON’T EVEN TRY TO LEARN ANYTHING NEW FROM ANOTHER NATION’S VOLCANIC

DISASTERS AND DON’T CONSIDER THEM TO BE A BASIS FOR CHANGING

EXISTING POLICIES

ELEVEN OF THE WORLD’S NOST DANGEROUS

VOLCANOES

THE NEXT ERUPTION OF THESE 11 ACTIVE VOLCANOES IS LIKELY TO BE DEVASTATING LOCALLY, REGIONALLY,

AND GLOBALLY

WHAT MAKES THESE 11 VOLCANOES DANGEROUS

• Eyjafjallajökull and Katla (ICELAND)

• Chaiten • Krakatau• Merapi

• Vesuvius • Pinatubo• Mount Rainier• Nevada del Ruiz• Popocatepl• Nyirangongo

(CONGO)

THEIR LOCATION NEAR CITIES AND INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE ROUTES

An eruption of any one of these eleven volcanoes is certain to be devastating to people, their property, their health, the economy, and, sometimes, the regional air space.

Eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano in Southern IcelandA Threat to North American-

European Air Traffic

MARCH 20, 2010

The Eyjafjallajökull and Katla Volcanoes: Southern Iceland

The Eyjafjallajökull (AYA-feeyapla-yurkul) volcano in Southern Iceland,

part of the volcanic process that originally formed Iceland, erupted a

few minutes before midnight on Saturday, March 20th

EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC DISRUPTED: APRIL 15, 2010

An eruption of the Katla volcano, located under the

massive Myrdalsjokull icecap, could cause disastrous local

flooding, explosive blasts, and eruption clouds that would disrupt air traffic between

Europe and the USA.

VOLCANO CHAITEN ERUPTS: CHILE: MAY 3, 2008

CHAITEN ERUPTED AFTER 8,000-10,000 YEAR DORMANCY

•THE 1,200 M (3,550 FT) VOLCANO SENT ASH HIGH INTO THE SKY.• “VOLCANIC EARTHQUAKES WERE TRIGGERED IN THE AREA. •1,500 RESIDENTS EVACUATED, MOSTLY BY BOAT

The Historic 1883 Krakatoa Eruption !

Anak Krakatoa—Son of Krakatoa

KRAKATAU • 26-27 August, 1883; The big one!

http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Krakatau.html

MOUNT MERAPI: INDONESIA

INDONESIA’S MOUNT MERAPI ERUPTED ON MAY & JUNE, 2006

• Mount Merapi emitted lava, debris, and a pyroclastic flow on May 15, but this one was not devastating.

EXPLOSIVENESS OF JUNE 8 ERUPTION SENT 15,000 FLEEING

MOUNT VESUVIUS: ITALY; A THREAT TO NAPLES

MOUNT FUJI: JAPAN; A THREAT TO TOKYO

MT. PINATUBO: THE PHILIPPINES; JUNE 15, 1991

Pinatubo was the second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th

century and the largest to impact a densely populated area.

MOUNT RAINIER: THREAT TO SEATTLE, WASHINGTON (USA)

MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION

MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION

MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION

NEVADA DEL RUIZ: COLOMBIA; A 1988 DISASTER

The lahar generated by the eruption of Nevada del Ruiz buried 25,000 people in the city of Armero as they slept.

POPOCATEPL: MEXICO; A THREAT TO MEXICO CITY

“POPO” AND MEXICO CITY

RUMBLINGS OF ERUPTION OF “POPO” ON JULY 4, 2013

Africa's most active volcano.

NYIRANGONGO: DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO; A THREAT TO GOMA

ERUPTION OF NYIRANGONGO: JANUARY 2, 2010

WARNING:The other 1,489 active

volcanoes can also have dangerous

eruptions anytime.

ERUPTION OF PUYEHUE IN CHILE: FEB, 2012

ERUPTION OF CHAPARRASTIQUE IN EL SALVADOR: DEC., 2013

RUSSIA’S VOLCANO PLOSKY TOLBACHIK

PLOSKY TOLBACHIK SPEWS ASH: JAN. 6, 2013

LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL

• The people who know: 1) what hazards to expect (e.g., vertical ash plume, lateral blast, lava flow, lahar), 2) where and when they will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare for them will survive.

LESSON: TIMELY, REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIOS SAVE LIVES

• The people who have timely, realistic, advance information that facilitates reduction of vulnerabilities, and hence the risks associated with the vertical ash plume, pyroclastic flows, tephra, lava flows, and lahars will survive.

LESSON: TIMELY EARLY WARNING SAVES LIVES

• The people who have timely, accurate, advance information that facilitates evacuation to get our of harm’s way of pyroclastic flows, lava flows, and lahars will survive.

LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE SAVES LIVES

• The timing of emergency response operations, especially the evacuations and the search and rescue operations (limited to “the golden 48 hours)” will save lives

LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES

• The local community’s capacity for emergency health care (i,e., coping with damaged hospitals and medical facilities, lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality) is vital for survival.

LESSON: EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES

• Buildings engineered to withstand the risks from a vertical plume, ash, pyroclastic flows, and tephra that cause damage, collapse, and loss of function, is vital for protecting occupants from death and injury.

LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ALWAYS PROVIDES AID

• The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure earthquake disaster resilience.

YOUR

COMMUNITY

YOUR

COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• MONITORING• HAZARD MAPS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EM RESPONSE• RECOSTRUCTION AND

RECOVERY

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

PILLARS OF VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

Preparedness

Adoption and Implementation of a Realistic Building Code

Realistic Volcanic Eruption Disaster Scenarios

Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuations, S and R, and Medical Services)

Cost-Effective Reconstruction & Recovery

THE CHALLENGE:

POLICY CHANGES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

AN UNDER-UTILIZED GLOBAL STRATEGY

To Create Turning Points for Volcano Disaster Resilience

USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER

AND ACCELERATE POLICY CHANGES

MOVING TOWARDS THE MUST-HAPPEN GLOBAL STRATEGYTo Achieve Volcano Disaster

Resilience

INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS WITH POLITICAL SOLUTIONS FOR REALISTIC POLICIES ON PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, DISASTER

SCENARIOS, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, RECONSTRUCTION, AND RECOVERY