Disease Interception – Colorectal CancerSquare One Challenge Team 7
A World Without Colorectal Cancer
Disease stats$15B Cost of CRC (US) 50,000 Deaths per year50 yrs. Avg. age of onset 47% Do not follow screening6% Avg. risk of CRC 2nd leading cause of
cancer deaths
Our Mission: Provide all patients with reliable and affordable diagnoses about colorectal cancer in order to improve quality of life and avoid unnecessary treatment.
Interception vision
ID RISKMONITOR INTERVENE
• Cologuard • Colonoscopy
• Existing Conditions• Ethnicity• Diet• Hereditary• Age • Lifestyle
Disease stats
Interception vision
Potential collaborators
1Team 7
Our Research PropositionFOBT
(Fecal Occult Blood Test)Cologuard
Blood TestRetail price: $5-22Subsidized: $0
DNA and Blood TestRetail price: $599Subsidized: $ 97
Non-invasiveEasy to useInexpensive
Non-invasiveMore accurate Detects pre-cancer
Less accurate More expensive
Hyp
othe
sis
Improvement Methods:• Somatic cell sampling
recovery (SCSR)• Coloring mutated cells
Cologuard can be improved by exfoliating more mutated colon cells.
Prop
osed
Re
sear
chRe
sult
• Improved pre-cancer screening > 42%
• Earlier detection of CRC lead to lower costs for the health care system
73.3%46.2%
5.1%
93.3% 69.2%42.4%
FOBT Cologuard
2Team 7
Our Prosperous Business ModelCo
st
Stru
ctur
e
• Janssen pharmaceutical reps • TV, Print Ads • Emotional campaign• Subscription model
• DNA lab analysis $250• Production
$ 20• UPS Shipping
$ 20• Marketing
$110• Acquisition cost $100• Total per test
$500
Mar
keti
ngCo
re
Busi
ness
• Cologuard partnering or acquisition
• Insurance collaboration• Doctors associations• Retail through pharmacies Ke
y M
etri
cs • Market Cap $2.07B• Revenue 2014 $1.5M• 140 Sales Representatives• 4000+ Tests sold 2014• Test capacity 1M annually
Reve
nue
Stre
ams
• Target audience 25M
• Profit per test $ 100
• Time interval 2 years
• Business Cycle10 years
• Retail revenue $ 12.5B
• Cost to the system $ 5.2B
3Team 7
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
$3000
02468101214161820
No of Products sold Profit in TotalNo. in millions
Disease Interception – Colorectal CancerSquare One Challenge
4Team 7
Disease Interception – Colorectal CancerSquare One Challenge Back-Up Slides
5Team 7
Cologuard Product
6Team 7
Proposed Research
10,000• Aged 50 – 84
weighted towards 65 years
• No previous conditions that increase risk for CRC or family history
• No screening in the past 9 years
3 months 3 months 3 months
colonoscopy
Cologuard(control group)
Improved Cologuard(treatment group)• Somatic cell
sampling and recovery (SCSR)
• Coloring mutated cells
Improved• Increasing
sensitivity of pre-cancer screening >420 people
Not improved• No change to
previous Cologuard
• 0.7% with CRC (70 people)
• 7.6% with advanced precancerous lesions (760 people)
420 people with lesions >1cm
7Team 7
Revenue Stream Estimates No. of Products
sold Cost per product Revenue per product Profit per Product Profit in Total
2016 500,000 599 600 1 500,000
2017 1,000,000 581 600 19 18,970,000
2018 2,500,000 564 600 36 91,002,250
2019 4,000,000 547 600 53 213,235,492
2020 7,500,000 530 600 70 522,822,051
2021 12,500,000 514 600 86 1,070,228,983
2022 12,500,000 499 600 101 1,263,122,113
2023 15,000,000 484 600 116 1,740,274,140
2024 15,000,000 469 600 131 1,958,065,915
2025 18,000,000 460 600 140 2,520,000,000
2026 20,000,000 450 600 150 3,000,000,000
TOTAL 108,500,000 12,398,220,944
8Team 7
Market Segments
5Team 7
320,260,000Total US
Population
106,000,000People 50+
49,820,000Unscreened
24,910,000Target Market
33%
47%
50%
Total population of target market (US)
People of risk group that should get screened
Amount of people who don’t follow recommended screening
Conservative estimate of possible target group to aquire as customers
10Team 7
Inco
me
Stat
emen
t
11Team 7
Cash
Flo
w S
tate
men
t
12Team 7
Cologuard StocksIntroduction of Cologuard: Week of 10/6/14
13Team 7
Why we must
implement it
Why is it better & different
Most important question
and assumptions
Validations Team
• Improved quality of life
• Revenue for Janssen
• Saving cost (cancer treatment) for health care system through screening earlier and intervention
• Non-invasive• Earlier
detection• Tapping into
broader market
• Very low risks involved
• People would use Cologuard
• Can acquire Cologuard
• Improve quality of Cologuard
• Exfoliating/ coloring is possible for type of cells needed
• Market introduction
• Evidence for feasibility of prospective study
• Prestudy for exfoliating/ coloring
• Stock price/market share/ free cash flow
• Exact Sciences• Oncologists• Gastroenterolo
gists• Lab team• Exfoliation
researchers (IU)• Investment
bank• Project
management team
• Marketing team
Value Propositions
14Team 7
Since you love your parents, make them screen for colorectal cancer with the first non-invasive DNA test!
14Team 7
Goal Alignment Janssen and Exact Sciences
15Team 7
16Team 7
17Team 7
18Team 7
19Team 7
20Team 7
21Team 7
22Team 7
23Team 7
24Team 7
Rates of Cancer
25Team 7
Rates of Colorectalcancer
26Team 7
27Team 7
Our Team
Jan Beke
Stuart Gardner
Sabine Kretschmann
Wolfgang Rodler
Steven Verlinden
Yifan Zhou
28Team 7
Disease Interception – Colorectal CancerSquare One Challenge
29Team 7
Top Related