Disease Interception – Colorectal CancerSquare One Challenge Team 7

A World Without Colorectal Cancer

Disease stats$15B Cost of CRC (US) 50,000 Deaths per year50 yrs. Avg. age of onset 47% Do not follow screening6% Avg. risk of CRC 2nd leading cause of

cancer deaths

Our Mission: Provide all patients with reliable and affordable diagnoses about colorectal cancer in order to improve quality of life and avoid unnecessary treatment.

Interception vision

ID RISKMONITOR INTERVENE

• Cologuard • Colonoscopy

• Existing Conditions• Ethnicity• Diet• Hereditary• Age • Lifestyle

Disease stats

Interception vision

Potential collaborators

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Our Research PropositionFOBT

(Fecal Occult Blood Test)Cologuard

Blood TestRetail price: $5-22Subsidized: $0

DNA and Blood TestRetail price: $599Subsidized: $ 97

Non-invasiveEasy to useInexpensive

Non-invasiveMore accurate Detects pre-cancer

Less accurate More expensive

Hyp

othe

sis

Improvement Methods:• Somatic cell sampling

recovery (SCSR)• Coloring mutated cells

Cologuard can be improved by exfoliating more mutated colon cells.

Prop

osed

Re

sear

chRe

sult

• Improved pre-cancer screening > 42%

• Earlier detection of CRC lead to lower costs for the health care system

73.3%46.2%

5.1%

93.3% 69.2%42.4%

FOBT Cologuard

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Our Prosperous Business ModelCo

st

Stru

ctur

e

• Janssen pharmaceutical reps • TV, Print Ads • Emotional campaign• Subscription model

• DNA lab analysis $250• Production

$ 20• UPS Shipping

$ 20• Marketing

$110• Acquisition cost $100• Total per test

$500

Mar

keti

ngCo

re

Busi

ness

• Cologuard partnering or acquisition

• Insurance collaboration• Doctors associations• Retail through pharmacies Ke

y M

etri

cs • Market Cap $2.07B• Revenue 2014 $1.5M• 140 Sales Representatives• 4000+ Tests sold 2014• Test capacity 1M annually

Reve

nue

Stre

ams

• Target audience 25M

• Profit per test $ 100

• Time interval 2 years

• Business Cycle10 years

• Retail revenue $ 12.5B

• Cost to the system $ 5.2B

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

$3000

02468101214161820

No of Products sold Profit in TotalNo. in millions

Disease Interception – Colorectal CancerSquare One Challenge

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Disease Interception – Colorectal CancerSquare One Challenge Back-Up Slides

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Cologuard Product

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Proposed Research

10,000• Aged 50 – 84

weighted towards 65 years

• No previous conditions that increase risk for CRC or family history

• No screening in the past 9 years

3 months 3 months 3 months

colonoscopy

Cologuard(control group)

Improved Cologuard(treatment group)• Somatic cell

sampling and recovery (SCSR)

• Coloring mutated cells

Improved• Increasing

sensitivity of pre-cancer screening >420 people

Not improved• No change to

previous Cologuard

• 0.7% with CRC (70 people)

• 7.6% with advanced precancerous lesions (760 people)

420 people with lesions >1cm

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Revenue Stream Estimates No. of Products

sold Cost per product Revenue per product Profit per Product Profit in Total

2016 500,000 599 600 1 500,000

2017 1,000,000 581 600 19 18,970,000

2018 2,500,000 564 600 36 91,002,250

2019 4,000,000 547 600 53 213,235,492

2020 7,500,000 530 600 70 522,822,051

2021 12,500,000 514 600 86 1,070,228,983

2022 12,500,000 499 600 101 1,263,122,113

2023 15,000,000 484 600 116 1,740,274,140

2024 15,000,000 469 600 131 1,958,065,915

2025 18,000,000 460 600 140 2,520,000,000

2026 20,000,000 450 600 150 3,000,000,000

TOTAL 108,500,000 12,398,220,944

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Market Segments

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320,260,000Total US

Population

106,000,000People 50+

49,820,000Unscreened

24,910,000Target Market

33%

47%

50%

Total population of target market (US)

People of risk group that should get screened

Amount of people who don’t follow recommended screening

Conservative estimate of possible target group to aquire as customers

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Inco

me

Stat

emen

t

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Cash

Flo

w S

tate

men

t

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Cologuard StocksIntroduction of Cologuard: Week of 10/6/14

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Why we must

implement it

Why is it better & different

Most important question

and assumptions

Validations Team

• Improved quality of life

• Revenue for Janssen

• Saving cost (cancer treatment) for health care system through screening earlier and intervention

• Non-invasive• Earlier

detection• Tapping into

broader market

• Very low risks involved

• People would use Cologuard

• Can acquire Cologuard

• Improve quality of Cologuard

• Exfoliating/ coloring is possible for type of cells needed

• Market introduction

• Evidence for feasibility of prospective study

• Prestudy for exfoliating/ coloring

• Stock price/market share/ free cash flow

• Exact Sciences• Oncologists• Gastroenterolo

gists• Lab team• Exfoliation

researchers (IU)• Investment

bank• Project

management team

• Marketing team

Value Propositions

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Since you love your parents, make them screen for colorectal cancer with the first non-invasive DNA test!

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Goal Alignment Janssen and Exact Sciences

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Rates of Cancer

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Rates of Colorectalcancer

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Our Team

Jan Beke

Stuart Gardner

Sabine Kretschmann

Wolfgang Rodler

Steven Verlinden

Yifan Zhou

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Disease Interception – Colorectal CancerSquare One Challenge

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