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  • 1. | Fubon Research (6153 TT)2011 6 9 79 NT$59.50 NT$79.00 5% RIM(2498 TT) () 324 24~26% () 19,300 () 669 14 79 (%) 20.77 (%) 15.69 (%) 8.02 52 () 61.50 52 () 27.50 2011 Others TFT 7% 4% NB & tab let Hands et 27% 62% 2010/2011 6.5%/6.1% 10 8% 12 31 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F 7,961 10,225 12,499 14,828 1,356 2,573 3,464 4,114 293 1,259 2,034 2,540 15~20%EBITDA 10 17 21 21 25% 422 975 1,622 2,022 (NT$) 1.31 3.01 5.01 6.25 (NT$) 1.10 2.00 3.26 4.06 (x) 45.3 19.7 11.9 9.5 (x) 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 22.3 9.9 6.6 5.4 (%) - 1.8 3.4 5.5 (%) 7.4 15.9 23.6 25.7 1)2) (%) 4.7 10.4 15.0 16.4 3) 12 70 NT$ 3.0 80 NT$ 15 70 12(886-2) 2781-5995 ext. 7010 50 2.0 [email protected] 50 9 40 30 1.0 6 30 20 10 0.0 10 2010/05 2010/08 2010/11 2011/02 2011/05 P E (x) 0 6153 TT () 2006/01 2007/01 2008/01 2009/01 2010/01 2011/01 1
  • 2. | - 79 14 1) 2) 3) 2006 67% 1)2) 3)4) 1: institutional investors holdings (%) FINI holdings (%) % % GM% (RHS) 50 35 30 40 25 30 20 20 15 10 10 5 - - Dec 08 Dec 05 Dec 07 Dec 09 Dec 06 Dec 11 Dec 10 Jun 08 Jun 05 Jun 07 Jun 09 Jun 06 Jun 11 Jun 10 2
  • 3. | - 79 6 79 14 33% 20082009 5 6-15 79 14 5 Fujikura 14 2011 12 (6269 TT)(6 ) 13 14 2011 /2012 12 /9.5 24%~26% 13% 14 79 2: PE (x) 20 15 10 5 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Cmoney 3
  • 4. | 3: % PB (x) ROE (%) x 30 3.0 25 2.5 20 2.0 15 1.5 10 1.0 5 0.5 0 - Mar 04 Sep 04 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 05 Sep 05 Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 09 Sep 09 Mar 06 Sep 06 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 10 Sep 10 CMoney 4: EPS () EPS PE (x) PB (x) (2011/5/17) FY10 FY11F FY12F FY11F FY12F FY10 FY11F FY12F FY10 FY11F FY12F FY10 FY11F FY12F 6153 TT NT$59.50 3.0 5.0 6.3 66% 25% 19.7 11.9 9.5 3.0 2.6 2.31 16% 24% 26% 6269 TT NT$68.90 4.0 5.2 6.3 29% 23% 17.3 13.4 10.9 4.5 3.2 2.47 29% 26% 23% 2402 TT NT$15.20 0.1 0.8 1.7 636% 115% 138.2 18.8 8.7 0.9 0.8 0.76 1% 5% 9% 8039 TT NT$57.60 4.3 5.5 6.8 27% 24% 13.4 10.5 8.5 2.3 1.9 1.70 21% 20% 22% 190% 46% 47.2 13.6 9.4 2.7 2.2 1.81 17% 18% 20%Nippon Mektron 7240 JP 1,356.00 97.3 121.0 126.0 24% 4% 13.9 11.2 10.8 1.0 0.9 0.86 7% 9% 7%Fujikura 5803 JP 353.00 26.0 24.8 24.6 -5% -1% 13.6 14.3 14.4 0.7 0.7 0.67 5% 5% 5%M-Flex MFLX US US$21.28 1.8 2.1 2.5 18% 17% 12.0 10.1 8.7 1.3 1.2 1.03 8% 12% 14%Interflex 051370 KS 22,400 3,404 4,013 5,030 18% 25% 6.6 5.6 4.5 2.0 1.6 1.20 21% 26% 27% 14% 11% 11.5 10.3 9.6 1.2 1.1 0.94 10% 13% 13%Bloomberg1. Bloomberg 2. 17,100 4
  • 5. | - () Prismark - 52%35% 4%7% Gartner iPhone 4 7 50% 5: 6: FPC mkt (US$bn) YoY growth 12 30% 10 20% , 29% , 26% 8 10% 6 0% 4 -10% / , 20% 2 -20% / 0 -30% , 13% 2009 2010E 2007 2011F 2012F 2008 2005 2006 Prismark Prismark 7: () () 1~5 3~5 5~12 5~20 5~8 3~6 10~20 10~20 LED 1~2 5~10 1 2~4 5
  • 6. | - 1,800 174% 4,900 iPad (Wi-Fi) 20% 8: : 9: 2000 Unit mn 50% 100% Others 12% 11% 90% 19% 1% 16% 18% 17% 1600 40% 1% 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% Palm 1% 8% 0% 80% 0% 3% 6% 5% 5% 6% 7% 2% LG 70% 5% 8% 12% 1200 30% 8% 14% 13% 15% 60% 5% 4% Sams ung 16% 5% 17% 11% 800 20% 50% 20% 13% 15% Moto 40% 16% 16% 15% HTC 400 10% 14% 30% 13% 44% 10% Apple 20% 41% 10% 0 0% 34% RIM 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10% 21% 20% 17% 0% Nokia Featurep hone s hip ment S martp hone s hip ment 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 S martp hone p enetration rate 10: 11: mn units 120 180% Others 150% 100 120% 90% 80 RIM 60% 30% 60 0% Andro id -30% 40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 Apples iPad Mainstream NB YoY growth Netbook YoY g rowth Tablet YoY growth 0 2010 2011 2012 2013IDC 6
  • 7. | 1 1 IC 3 20% 1H11 12: 13: mn units mn units Touch panel shipments 1000 100% 2500 800 80% 2000 600 60% 1500 400 40% 1000 200 20% 500 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 Smartphone with touch Feature phone with touch 2017 2014 2015 2011 2013 2012 2016 2010 2008 2009 Tablet with touch % of smartphone with touch % of feature phone with touch % of tablet with touchDisplay Search, 7
  • 8. | 2010/2011 6.5%/6.1% 10 8% 70%~75% 10 10% 12%-15% 2006 2008-2009 (5469 TT)(Maruwa) 2009 (Young Poong, 000670 KS) Interflex (051370 KS) PCB (3037 TT) (3321 TT) 50% 2008 50% Nippon Mektron Sumitomo Bakelite 2005-2006 5~8 3~6 1 8
  • 9. | 2010/2011 6.5%/6.1% 10 8% 70%~75% 10 10% 12%-15% 10% 14: 12,000 12% 10,000 10% 8,000 8% 6,000 6% 4,000 4% 2,000 2% 0 0% 2011 2013 2012 2007 2010 2001 2004 2008 2005 2003 2002 2009 2006 2000 S ales (US $mn) Cap ex (US $mn) Cap ex-to s ales ratio BloombergReuters : 1. 90% 20 / 2. 3. Bloomberg 9
  • 10. | 15: 10 2011 2010 2011 Nippon Mektron 25% 15% Fujikura 10% Sumitomo Electric 8% Nitto Denko 6% Sumitomo Bakelite 3% M-Flex 10% 15% Korea Interflex 4% 25% Young Poong 3% 10% () 4% 4% 20% PrismarkReuters 16: 6153 TT 6269 TT 2402 TT 3037 TT 2010 () 30 10 8 7.9 2010 11 5 4 2 2011 +20% +20% +50% +9% 2011 9 6 4 NT$400mn 10
  • 11. | 15~20% 25% 2007 32% 11% 2008 5 5% 2009 2010 10% 1) 2) 3) 17: 18: - 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2011 2012 2010 2007 2008 2009 2006 Prismark Prismark 19: 80 25 90 27 100 29 110 31 120 33 130 35 140 37 1-2004 1-2009 1-2003 1-2002 1-2001 1-2011 1-2000 1-2010 1-2007 1-2008 1-2005 1-2006 CMoney 11
  • 12. | 20: 20 % Nip p on Mektron 15% Fujikura 10 % S umitomo Electric S umitomo B akelite 5% M-FLEX Interflex 0% Yoong P oong 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 10 20 11 20 12 FLEXium -5% Career Tech -10 % Bloomberg, Reuters 1. Bloomberg 2. 1) Nippon Mektron2) Fujikura3) Sumitomo Electric 4) Sumitomo Bakelite 1)2) 3) 4) iPhone iPad NOK iPhone iPad iPhone iPad LG 12
  • 13. | 21: 10 FY09 2009 2010-2011 (%) 1 Nippon Mektron 7240 JP 19.2% 34% 2 Fujikura 5803 JP 11.6% 17% 3 M-Flex MFLX US 9.7% 100% 4 Sumitomo Electric 5802 JP 6.9% 3% 5 () 6.5% NA / 6 Nitto Denko 6988 JP 5.0% 6% 7 Interflex 051370 KS 3.7% 100% / ( 65%)/( 8 6153 TT 3.1% 100% 25%) Sumitomo 9 4203 JP 2.5% 11% Bakelite 10 Young Poong 000670 KS 2.4% 15% PrismarkBloombergReuters 13
  • 14. | 1992 2010 4% 30 11 RIM(2498 TT)(005930 KS)Nokia (2384 TT)(3673 TT) 22: Basic Materials Polyimide Cupper Foil Adhesives PET Film Dupont, Toray Japan Energy, Dupont, Dupont-Teijin Kaneka, Taimide, Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Taiflex, Toray, Ube Industries, Furukawa Circuit Foil, Microcosm, Nan Ya, SKC Kolon Nippon Denkai Rogers Sing Kong FCCL Dupont, Toray, Shinetsu Chemical, Arisawa, Kyocera Chemical, Rogers, Nippon Steel, Ube Industries, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Taiflex, Thinflex, Microcosm, Aplus FPC Nippon Mektron, Fujikura, Sumitomo Electric, Nitto Denko, Sumitomo Bakelite, M-Flex, Multek, Interflex, Young Poong, SI Flex, BH Flex, LG Innotek, Career Tech, Foxconn Adv. Tech., Flexium, Ichia, Sunflex, Unimicron, Uniflex Communic Industrial/ Military/ IC Computer Consumer Displays Automotives ation Medical Aerospace Packaging 23: 6% 4% 4% 2009 24: 25: 100% Sing le- Others Rig id-flex LCD side 80% Multilayer NB/tablet 60% Handset 40% 20% 0% 2011 2007 2010 2008 2009 Double- side 14
  • 15. | 65% 80% 50% 25% SMT 50% SMT SMT 15~20% 25% 15
  • 16. | 5.0 6.3 3.0 2011 67% 2011 10~15% 29% 27% iPhone iPad 2011 2011 22% 2011 16% 5.0 2011 1.53 1.59 28% 27% 2012 19% 2011 800~1,000 11 13~14 75~80% 80~85% 2010 3.0 2 67% 60~70% 16% 24~26% 16
  • 17. | 26: NT$mn 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 1Q11 2Q11F 3Q11F 4Q11F 2011F 7,961 1,967 2,617 2,908 2,733 10,225 2,448 2,753 3,459 3,839 12,499 1,356 445 714 748 666 2,573 707 736 977 1,044 3,464 1,063 290 370 324 329 1,314 334 344 356 395 1,430 293 155 344 424 337 1,259 373 392 621 648 2,034 475 165 358 421 300 1,244 411 397 626 654 2,087 422 114 287 352 222 975 298 313 495 516 1,623 (NT$) 1.31 0.35 0.89 1.09 0.69 3.02 0.92 0.97 1.53 1.60 5.02 (%) 17% 23% 27% 26% 24% 25% 29% 27% 28% 27% 28% 4% 8% 13% 15% 12% 12% 15% 14% 18% 17% 16% 5% 6% 11% 12% 8% 10% 12% 11% 14% 13% 13% TEJ / 27: vs. % GM% (RHS) NT$ Share Price (RHS) 70 30 60 50 20 40 30 10 20 10 0 - Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 TEJ 17
  • 18. | 28: vs. NT$ EPS (NT$) ROE (%) % 7.0 35.0 6.0 30.0 5.0 25.0 4.0 20.0 3.0 15.0 2.0 10.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 - 1-2004 1-2008 1-2005 1-2003 1-2002 1-2012 1-2007 1-2009 1-2006 1-2000 1-2010 1-2001 1-2011 TEJ FY11-13 5~7% 29: 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 160 112 101 100 100 73 37 35 35 35 123 98 99 99 99 233 149 136 135 135 110 51 37 36 36 TEJ 30: PCB Net Cash per share (NT$ ) 8.00 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 6.00 4.00 2.00 - Career Tech Flexium Ichia Unimicron Compeq -2.00 -4.00 CMoney 18
  • 19. | 31: (US$mn) PE (x) PB (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY11F FY12F FY11F FY12F FY11F FY12F FY11F FY12F FY11F FY12F 6153 TT 12,499 14,828 11.9 9.5 2.6 2.3 6.3 5.1 24% 26% 6269 TT 6,149 8,011 13.4 10.9 3.2 2.5 8.1 6.3 26% 23% 2402 TT 10,589 -- 18.8 8.7 0.8 0.8 3.7 -- 5% 9% 8039 TT 8,502 10,707 10.5 8.5 1.9 1.7 6.4 5.2 20% 22% 3037 TT 71,053 81,583 11.3 9.3 1.6 1.5 5.7 4.9 14.8 17.0 2367 TT 17,301 20,491 9.9 9.3 1.0 -- 5.6 -- 11.4 -- 2313 TT 27,187 28,512 20.3 17.2 -- -- 7.1 -- 4.7 -- 2368 TT 18,053 20,628 19.9 13.6 0.7 0.7 2.6 1.6 3.3 -- 3044 TT 48,488 55,093 11.0 9.7 2.6 2.2 5.4 4.8 27.4 25.9 3008 TT 18,047 23,586 18.8 14.7 5.9 4.7 14.3 11.0 33.4 35.3 2439 TT 9,246 10,371 9.4 8.4 1.4 1.3 4.3 3.8 15.9 17.4 3311 TT 14,357 15,629 9.2 8.9 2.0 1.8 3.9 3.7 22.6 22.1 3042 TT 11,179 13,279 11.5 9.4 2.2 2.0 6.7 5.7 20.4 22.7 Bloomberg Bloomberg 19
  • 20. | FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F 7,961 10,225 12,499 14,828 1,759 2,785 2,828 3,075 6,605 7,652 9,035 10,714 2,448 2,832 3,424 4,062 1,356 2,573 3,464 4,114 665 736 860 1,020 1,063 1,314 1,430 1,574 260 337 412 489 293 1,259 2,034 2,540 5,133 6,691 7,525 8,647EBITDA 793 1,747 2,570 3,134 9 9 12 14 (7) 16 23 26 3,190 3,121 3,574 4,069 2 2 2 2 263 374 374 374 53 (51) (36) 0 8,596 10,196 11,485 13,104 134 17 61 52 257 847 574 600 182 (16) 51 80 0 0 0 0 475 1244 2086 2620 1,779 2,075 2,451 2,906 53 269 464 598 527 730 893 1,059 422 975 1622 2022 2,563 3,652 3,917 4,565EPS (NT$) 1.31 3.01 5.01 6.25 48 15 64 67EPS (NT$) 1.31 3.01 5.01 6.25 122 131 131 131EPS (NT$) 1.31 3.01 5.01 6.25 2,733 3,798 4,112 4,763 (%) - - - - 3,214 3,234 3,234 3,234 (NT$) 1.10 2.00 3.26 4.06 1,692 1,583 1,583 1,583 957 1,581 2,556 3,523(%) 5,863 6,398 7,373 8,340 0.4 28.4 22.2 18.6 8,596 10,196 11,485 13,104 89.7 89.7 89.7 N.A. 329.3 61.5 24.9 2384 131 66 25 EPS 2372 130 66 25 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F(%) 422 975 1,622 2,022 17.0 25.2 27.7 27.7 500 488 537 594 3.7 12.3 16.3 17.1 2 2 2 2 5.3 9.5 13.0 13.6 1051 (33) (253) (253)EBITDA 10.0 17.1 20.6 21.1 (2) (2) (2) (2) 1970 1427 1903 2360 (135) (330) (900) (1000) 3 2 0 0 1Q11 2Q11F 3Q11F 4Q11F (48) (200) (89) (89) 2,448 2,753 3,459 3,839 (180) (528) (989) (1089) 707 736 977 1,044 1790 900 914 1271 373 392 621 648 () (447) 556 (224) 29 0 1 1 1 0 (353) (647) (1054) 38 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 411 396 625 653 0 0 0 0 113 113 113 113 0 0 0 0 298 313 494 516 (33) (77) 0 0EPS (NT$) 0.92 0.97 1.53 1.59 (480) 126 (870) (1025)(%) 1,311 1,026 43 247 24.5 5.2 18.9 40.5 58.8 3.0 30.6 56.7 140.9 13.8 46.5 92.4 160.9 9.0 40.4 132.4 (%) FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F (10.4) 12.4 25.6 11.0 (%) 4.7 10.4 15.0 16.4 6.1 4.0 32.8 6.8 (%) 7.4 15.9 23.6 25.7 10.6 5.1 58.6 4.4 (%) 1.8 1.5 3.6 4.3 34.5 4.8 58.0 4.4 (x) 45.3 19.7 11.9 9.5(%) (x) 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.3 28.9 26.7 28.3 27.2 (x) 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.3 15.2 14.2 18.0 16.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 22.3 9.9 6.6 5.4 12.2 11.4 14.3 13.4 (%) - 1.8 3.4 5.5 12 12 70 NT$ 3.0 80 NT$ 15 80 NT$ x 3.0 70 12 7050 2.0 60 60 50 9 50 2.0 40 4030 1.0 6 30 30 1.0 20 2010 0.0 10 0.5 P E (x) 102010/05 2010/08 2010/11 2011/02 2011/05 0 0 6153 TT () 2006/01 2007/01 2008/01 2009/01 2010/01 2011/01 2006/012007/01 2008/01 2009/01 2010/01 2011/01 20
  • 21. | 1. 2. 6 30% 6 10-30% 610%10% 610-30% 630% 6 6 6 21