Z [ Master plan of Kathmandu City - JICA - 国際協力機構 · Ministry of Land,...

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism JAPAN

National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management

2015/07/10 Hiroyasu SHINGAI

JICA Study Team for Reconstruction Support to Government of Nepal

0 8 km

KATHMANDU METROPOLITAN CITY FUKUOKA CITY

0 8 km 0 8 km

TOKYO METROPOLITAN CITY

Proposals for ‘BBB’ Master plan of Kathmandu City

4 million 4 million 35 million

表紙



(10) Proposals of necessary action & systems for BBB

Y

2

(6) Desirable Structure of Kathmandu Valley

(7) Land use plan (8) Transport & Facilities plan

(9) Assessment N

(11) Assessment Y

N

(12) Master plan of KV for Reconstruction and Resilience

Today’s report

(1) Review of Last Assessment, 2015Disaster, and Urban Policy in KV

(4) Prediction of Next(Bigger) Disaster Risk

(2) Estimation of Future Population

(3) Prediction and Evaluation of Urban Problems

Consideration Flow

(5)‘BBB’ Concept



Consolidated Damage in Kathmandu Valley and Rural Area

Damage in Kathmandu City

3

(1)-1 今回地震被害 (1) Review of 2015Disaster, and Urban Policy in KV

c OpenStreetMap contributors



(1)-2 都市政策上の問題 Damage in Kathmandu City and multiplex Problem in Urban Policy

Block up of Emergency Road with debris

Lack of urgent supplies

Lack of open space for Living as refugees and

management of supplies

4

Block up of Evacuation Route with debris

Chronic traffic congestion

Neck of the movement for Emergency vehicles at the time of disaster

↓




Distribution of Damaged building by degree of earthquake resistance

Kathmandu Valley

5

Earthquake 2015 in Nepal

Degree of earthquake resistance/ Strength of earthquake

Number of buildings

Rural villages which contain Non anti-seismic houses

Historical area containing non anti-seismic building

Earthquake 2015

Earthquake2015 in NEPAL

Sankh



6

Ratio by Building Structure

Stone (ST)

Adobe (AD)

Brick with mud mortar (BM)

Well-built brick with mud mortar (BMW)

Brick with cement or lime mortar (BC)

RC frame with masonry of 4 stories or more (RC5)

RC frame with masonry of 3 stories or less (RC3)

Fragility Curve

ST,AD

BM

BMW,BC

RC3,RC5

Earthquake 2015 in Nepal

Nepal 2015

Earthquake2015 in NEPAL

Ratio of collapsed building



7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1981 1991 2001 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Po

pu

lati

on

in

mill

ion

s

(Transportation WG, JICA(2014)

Population Change (1991→2030)

(2) Estimation of Future Population (2) 将来人口推計

2030



8

Contribution of OD(origin-destination) data of Kathmandu Valley (current)

(3) 様々な都市問題（発生交通） (3) Prediction and Evaluation of Urban Problems

Daily Passenger flow

2020 Urbanization

2030 Urbanization Then？



(3) 様々な都市問題（道路現況）

８～ Lanes ６～ Lanes ４～ Lanes Wider ２～ Lanes ～２ Lanes

LEGEND

9

Current situation of roads in Kathmandu City

Heavy saturated Cross point




Drop of the service speed (Bus)

LOW

10

Chronic traffic congestion

Serious traffic jam at the main crossing

(3) 様々な都市問題（交通渋滞） Serious problems about traffic

Weakness at the time of the disaster

Overflow(Heavy) Overflow



Major hazard Earthquake

Tsunami/ Hydro-met. events

Yes Kanto（1923）

Hanshin（1995）

Expansion of Damage as Time passes

No East Japan（2011）

n.a.

Characteristics

Cause

Guide para

others

Sporadic, simultaneous (Uncertainty )

Areal continuous (Easy to forecast)

11

How evacuate after disasters ? Prevent spread fire.

Evacuate well when disaster occurs

Need to consider both of area and individual buildings

Death by fire

Drowning Uffocation and

Crush death

Characteristics from the view point of disaster types and fires

Nepal (2015) (20XX)

fire

Characteristics Cause Guide para others

(4) Prediction of Next (Bigger) Disaster Risk (Characteristics) (4) Prediction of Next (Bigger) Disaster Risk



１２３

12

Lessons Learnt from the two great earthquakes in JAPAN（1995KOBE, 2011EAST-JAPAN）

Disasters occur in unexpected areas

(Unexpectation of place)

Disasters occur in bigger scale than

expected

(Unexpectation of scale)

Damage depend largely on the time when earthquakes

occurred

(Uncertainty of time)

Necessary to consider

the unexpectation of “unexpectation”

‘Unexpected’ can be happened (4) Prediction of Next (Bigger) Disaster Risk (Unexpected be happened)



View from KOBE City

Gorkha

Kathmandu

Chautara

Central NEPAL

SAME SCALE

Figure. Active faults in Kinki district

0 30km

(m/103y) Activity Level

A (10～1)

B (1～0.1)

The Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake (Jan., 1995)

Predicted few earthquakes in KOBE area

Beyond the prediction, huge earthquake in KOBE area and heavily damaged in buildings.

Occurred early morning caused less fire incidents, but more deaths of collapsed housed.

13

Magnitude ７．３ Deaths ６，４３４ Wounded ４３，７９２

Ｍ７．３

‘Unexpected’ can be happened The Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake (1995)



Pokhara

Mt. Annapurna I

Kathmandu

Mt. Everest

Tokyo Mt. Fuji

Sendai

Area of flood

14

Expectation：once per 100 years

Suffered from much bigger Tsunami than expectation

Actual：Once per 1,000 years

The Great East Japan Earthquake (March, 2011)

‘Unexpected’ can be happened

It was expected the inundated area of tsunamis could not be large.

The Great East Japan Earthquake (2011)




Kathmandu Valley

15

Scenario A Areas including Relatively vulnerable buildings to earthquakes


Number of buildings

Underlying Risk (4) Prediction of Next (Bigger) Disaster Risk (Scenario A)

Kobe(1995)



16

Distribution of Building Type

Underlying Risk Distribution of Building Type



17


Scenario B Areas where high ratio of anti seismic buildings

Kathmandu Valley


Number of buildings

With consideration of soft ground, then…

Underlying Risk (4) Prediction of Next (Bigger) Disaster Risk (Scenario B)

Kobe(1995)


National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (4) Prediction of Next (Bigger) Disaster Risk

Evaluation of Geomorphology and Current road network (Image) 18

８～ Lanes ６～ Lanes ４～ Lanes Wider ２～ Lanes ～２ Lanes

Current Road LEGEND

(2015) Next Bigger Earthquake, Then？

Geomorphology LEGEND

Very Soft Ground

Narrow Road

Block up of Evacuation Route with debris

Whole City



Scenario 1: No disasters

Scenario 2: With disasters No BBB

19

(5) Strategic Thinking of “Build Back Better”

Quality of urban space/ DRR capacity of urban areas

Time

restoration

Scenario 3: With disasters With BBB

Prevention of future loss

Better reconstruction

More development

Damage mitigation

Disaster

Disaster

Quick recovery

restoration

Strategic prevention of future loss is important to BBB & more development

(5) ‘BBB’ Concept



20

Resilient Zone

Vulnerable Zone

Cost & Contrivance

Leve

l of

Safe

ty

Vulnerable Houses(many in Rural)

Vulnerable Facilities etc.(many in Urban)

Vulnerable Important Infrastructures etc.(many in Urban)

Earthquake 2015/4/25

Next Bigger Earthquake

Resilient Houses(Rural & Urban)

Resilient Facilities etc.(many in Urban)

Strong Important Infrastructures etc.(many in Urban)

Strong Zone

(5) Strategic Thinking of “Build Back Better” (5) ‘BBB’ Concept



21


120ha 140ha

450ha

400ha 240ha

200ha

150ha

LEGEND

New Compact Satellite City

Trend Sprawl City Boundary (2030)

Inner Ring Road

Leading

Highway, or Outer Ring Road Ring Road



Kathmandu Valley Development Proposition(2000,KVTDC) (Functional Hierarchy) Color Zone based on constraint free area(2015,KVDA) 22

120ha

140ha

450ha

400ha

240ha 200ha

150ha


Appropriate Bypass function

Skelton of Developments, and

Public transportation

Heavy saturated Cross point



23 Forested areas in KV Hilly or Forested area in KV

Outer Ring Road

Lower Cost by avoiding hilly area



Potentially High Water Recharge Area(2015,KVDA) 24

Outer Ring Road Save the Water Recharge Area



2020 2030 2040 2050

25

Outer Ring Road

Must be constructed until 2030

Urbanization 2020→2050 (2015,KVDA)



26

Outer Ring Road Need to revise

the former plan



27

Network

Prevent the obstacles of transportation by falling electric poles

Concept of Urban Planning (Transport and Facilities)

○Measurement for densely populated urban areas

Preparation and Maintenance of evacuation route

○Underground installation of electric wire

○Setting of parks and green areas for evacuation Keeping living space

Concept of Urban Planning (Transport and Facilities)



28

0 3 km

③2)New SRN (Feeder Roads)

②New Highway (short cut)

③1)Reinforcement of SRN

①New ‘Outer Ring Road’

④New ‘Inner Ring Road’

環状“櫛の歯”作戦

⑤Main wide-area disaster- management base

⑥Shelter Network

⑦Plaza & Water Tank Shelter Network

Plaza with Water Tank

SRN: Strategic Road

Network

National Road or Ring Road

Main Road

Branch Road

Bottle Neck Point

To be Constructed

Traffic Terminal (Bus Terminal)

Main wide-area disaster-management base

World Heritage

Conceptual Idea for Master Plan (Kathmandu City)



(8) Master Plan Image (North side) (8) Master Plan Image (Transport and Facilities)



(8) Master Plan Image (South side)

0 1 2 3 km

Outer Ring Road SRN Construction SRN Widen with Land-pooling with River improvement Evacuation Route Plaza with W.Tank Wide-area disaster Management base

LEGEND

30



31

⑤ Main wide-area disaster- management base

Theme4 Securing and management of urgent support supplies, and Open space for living as refugees

Theme3 Securing of second evacuation route in the crowd district of the old buildings

④ New ‘Inner Ring Road’

【１】Design Concept of Main Infrastructure for Resilient City

【２】Design Concept of Human-scale Facilities for Improvement of Disaster Prevention Effort

Theme2 Networking of the emergency transportation road ③ 1) Reinforcement of SRN

③ 2) New SRN (Feeder Roads)

⑥ Evacuation Route Network ‘Shelter Network’

Theme5 Securing of first evacuation route and first evacuation open space in the crowd district of the old buildings

⑦ Pocket Park and Emergency water supply ‘Plaza with Water Tank’

(8) Main Frame of MP for KV

Theme1 Cancellation of the bottle neck points ② New Highway (short cut)

① New ‘Outer Ring Road’

Main Frame of Master Plan for Resilient Kathmandu City (Transport and Facilities)

SRN: Strategic Road Network



KUMARI’s cruising route Block up of Evacuation Route with debris(2015)

Land-pooling

32

(8)-③ Strategic Road Network (image)

0 500m

Pocket Park and Emergency water supply ‘Plaza with Water Tank’

Kathmandu Durbar Square

Concept of New SRN construction method (with Land-pooling)

Emergency transportation road (SRN)

LEGEND

Pocket Park

World heritage

2nd Evacuation Route

Pocket Park Construction by Land-pooling

Pocket Park Widen by Land-pooling

Construction

Land-pooling Area

Emergency transportation road

Emergency transportation road

③2)New SRN (Feeder Roads) 0

100m 0

100m



Land-pooling

33

0 500m

Heavy Saturated Cross Point

(8)-④ Inner Ring road (with Land-pooling) (image)

④New ‘Inner Ring Road’


THAMEL

High Densely Built Area



0 500m

34

(8)-④ Inner Ring road (with River improvement) (image)

Current

or

Sousei-gawa Street (Sapporo, JAPAN)

A revival of a clean River by double section, with Underpass construction of main road.

One of examples in JAPAN, which is compared with `Cheonggyecheon River revival’, KOREA.

After Reconstruction

or

East side of Inner Ring road （Along Dhobi Khola) Section Image



Relation between ‘Main wide-area disaster-management base’ and other facilities(Hospitals) 35

0 3 km

⑤Main wide-area disaster-management base

(8)-⑤ Main wide-area disaster-management base (image)

Hospital

Hospital Concentrated area

LEGEND

Co-operation

National Road or Ring Road

Main Road

Branch Road

Bottle Neck Point

To be Constructed

Traffic Terminal (Bus Terminal)

Main wide-area disaster-management base

World Heritage



36

(8)-⑥ Evacuation route network (image)

⑥Shelter Network

Network Design Concept

Start!

Goal!

Plaza

SRN

Evacuation route



37

(8)-⑦ Pocket park and Emergency water supply (image)

⑦Plaza & Water Tank Shelter Network

Plaza with Water Tank

0 500m

Water Supply Improvement Project (2015,KVDA)

500-600 mm 350-400 200-300

LEGEND Pipe line diameters

LEGEND

Water Tank

Water Supply Pipe line

Pocket Park




Upper stairs (3rd floors～)

Lower stairs (G～2nd floors)

Patio(‘Chowk’) or Front of Houses

Street [ Evacuation Route ]

Pocket Park [ Evacuation space ]

Wide Road [ Emergency Road ]

Wide Open space [ Wide Area Disaster- management base ]

(9) Assessment of Master Plan

38

0 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 sec.

0 10sec. 1～2min. 20min. 3hour 1～2day 2week 4month 4year

Outer Area

Earthquake

(Depends on the hearing result to inhabitants)

(9) Assessment of Master Plan

Living as refugees Needs of Reconstruction

The situation of the suffering with the progress of the time

Location Evacuation

Death(Collapsed housed)

Collapse

Help required

Death(No Rescue)

Rescue

Block up with Debris and cars

Death(No Delivery)

Delivery of Emergency Materials

Block up with Debris and cars

Lack of Water

Lack of Water

Lack of Urgent Supplies

Lack of Urgent Supplies

Lack of Capacity

Death(No Care)

③④SRN and Inner Ring Road

①②Outer Ring Road & Highway

⑤Wide-area base

⑥Shelter Network Shelter Network

Plaza with Water Tank ⑦Plaza & water tank



In Japan,

Basic Disaster Measurement Act（1961) ↓

National Resilient Law（2013）

１．Comprehensive measurement including land and industrial policy beyond the strict meaning of Disaster Risk Reduction

２．Way of thinking “Disaster mitigation” , minimizing the damage, especially human lives and social important functions

３．Resilient ”restoring force”, way of thinking which realizes quick recovery and reconstruction and “Prevention for future loss”, way of thinking that enables restoring force

39

Areal development and induction

↓ Applicable in Nepal with additional contrivances

Non structured measurements

↓ Applicable in Nepal

Response to Obstruction

↓ Applicable in Nepal

(10) Proposals of necessary action and systems for BBB (10) Proposals of necessary action and systems for BBB



40

Master plan of the City Faceted development and induction

Control of Building Use by Land Use Zones

？

Public Facilities

Case of Land-use control and Public facilities construction in JAPAN Control and Action



41



○Disaster education in schools

Risk communication

○Support for the communities in rural and mountainous areas

○Promotion of national movement for establishment of practical disaster risk reduction

○Studies for the strong infrastructures to disasters, making use of the knowledge of East Asia and Japan




42

For the better development of Nepal,

Build Back Better and prevention of future losses

should be promoted

Japan contributes BBB in Nepal!

Message



43

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management JAPAN

Head of Urban Facilities Division Hiroyasu SHINGAI TEL/FAX: +81-29-864-3949

E-mail: [email protected] URL: http://www.nilim.go.jp/lab/jcg/index.htm

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