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22
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32

(1)GfvAv}vOJGyvOQGSv?fvzv)Gyv=v+v9!v9JGyvMv9eGyv(GQOIQ$vPGGyvAvJvzv+v{|v#fvOI|vZv9OQfvzv}v+v?,G!vdvQ:UNDP-

Programme on Governance in the Arab Region (POGAR), Democratic Governance (2005),

<http://www.pogar.org>.

vv}v9GfvAv}vOJGyvOQGSv?fvzv)|v;IvuG}IvOGKGyv(GQOIQGyvAvtvQ*vQGyvTv"v(j3vQvvRGyvMvzv+vHyv~<vJv9KzGyvMvzv+vHQf9e2003,2004,2005y,hfz)fOO|#G3Z9OQGygz}+?hGyOQGS9JGy(GQOIQ|QGFhGyOQGS?.

(2)Frauke Heard-Bey, «The United Arab Emirates: Statehood and Nation-building in a Traditional

Society,»Middle East Journal, vol. 59, no. 3 (Summer 2005).

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(4)Jeremy Jones and Nicholas Ridout, «Democratic Development in Oman,» Middle East Journal,

vol. 59, no. 3 (Summer 2005).

36

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(5)Louay Bahry, «Elections in Qatar: A Window of Democracy Opens in the Gulf,»Middle East Policy

Council Journal, vol. 6, no. 4 (June 1999), <http://www.mepc.org/journal_vol6/9906_bahry.asp>.

37

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38

(6)Michael Herb, «Democratization in the Arab World?: Emirs and Parliaments in the Gulf,» Journal

of Democracy, vol. 13, no. 4 (October 2002), <http://muse.jhu.edu>.

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|v#GyvJvQGcG3vAvQGvv~|v#sv(iEYv;Iv+v?Q|vGv9dGyvAvJvO*vEGyvTv+v9Sv,.h*vAvqv9hJ$vPGGNQKGNYv;Iv,|v#Ohyv?Eyv)CLvQiE:C!qv&*v}vwv#Gyvtv(dE!qv&|v(Fv(O|v#Iv+vE<vgv̂|v|VvQGJGyvO*v}vtvQG_v+v?.hfvzv+v&*v}vwv#Gyvtv(dEfGNYv;MGyvTv+v9Sv,Q|v"vavtv?GyvMvzv+vHGyvgvQ<v,CYv=vK|v(Fv(OG

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fvzv)G}Fv"vOIGyvTv+v9Sv+v?3vgvdv~OhdGyvMvzv+vHGyvgvQ<v,,yvwv#:CIvO*vgvQa|v"vRyvAv&|v#Iv+vEG}hyv(*v?fvzv)CFv"vOI$vPgGyOhd,E:C!&<9yAzv+O:*thfz)OQF?|AtO|?Q$PgGyOhd.

C9!+9k:@JO*9JGNY;MGyT+9S,

QOhd|GzUGyAg9hfGyMz+G,*vgv9!v,|vTvAvtv=v{GyvO*v}vtvQG_v+v?hGNYv;MGyvTv+v9Sv,QOhdGyvMvzv+vHGyvgvQ<v,|v#fvOOvv=v+vQ

|v#GyvAvJvO*v9JGyvAv,SvAv|LvQ$vPGGyvAvav(QhGNYv;MG3vavzv(HvvvvvhGyvPj:*v}vwv#GyvAvzLv+vQpv+&yg(G|{S+9S+?hGsAZ9O*?hGFA}9f+?fO*OIvvvvv@W}{@JO*9J|Jz+?hEsz+}+?hOhy+?(8):

1vvvvv@(F&f}z+?GNY;MGyT+9S,QG:@G9gGyM9_dEVv9QIEyv)yv(Sv+v9!v,(G. Luciani)(2005)*v}vwv#yvgv}vzv+v?GNYv;MGyvTv+v9Sv,Cf@vP$v>Q

(7)G3ZOQ!qT&.(8)G!vdvQvvzv}v9JG3vWv9QvvW(|v9Q*v"v9Ch@v9hGj[hBLvQhf]((Marina Ottaway [et al.])G3vtvO|v?Eyv):«Democracy:

Rising Tide or Mirage?, Thirty-ninth in the Capitol Hill Conference Series on U.S. Middle East

Policy,» Middle East Policy Council Forum (2005), <http://www.mepc.org/forums_chcs/39.asp>,

and Abdulaziz Sager, Political Reform Measures from a Domestic GCC Perspective, Research

Papers (Dubai: Gulf Research Center, 2005).

40

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<v9yvAvqvwv+vQ<v9yvJvZv(dfvzv)|vwv9Sv>GsvAvZv9O*v?|vAvgvOOIh@vQvv(GC|vQG3vWv9Qvv?GyvTv+v9Sv+v?h|v(\v(YGyvWvQfv+v?GyvTv+v9Sv+v?,<vMv9Yv?Cf|v(\v(YGyvWvQfv+v?GyvTv+v9Sv+v?QOhdGyvMvzv+vHGyvgvQ<v,svO@v~q

@vJvtv+vtv&|v#Lv;dGyvAvgvO*v;JGyvOSvAv(Q*v?h\v}v9fGSvAv}vQGQGyvJvwv~;yvPG*v}vwv#Gyv"vdvQEyv)|Tzy?f(GFOGy"qb<(Yq%9f9|;

k*=adf}z+?G3W9Qv?GyT+9S+?(9).

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GyvMvzv+vGv,,Iv+vEEf|vOiG3vav9yv=v?GyvWvgv=v+v?<vMv9Yv?GyvAv,@vAv~|v#Lv;d|v|SvTv9JG3vGvAv}vhG3vvO!vv,vvv9}IvvRGHGyvvTvv+vv9Svv+vv?hivv+vvQ$vv9|vv#G3vv|SvvTvv9JGyvvqvv9fvvzvv?@vvtvv(e<vvOhQpvv9fvv{Q@vvtvvOqeGNYv;MhQ|vR*vO|v#GyvAvQGvv~GyvO*v}vtvQG_v,GyvPj@vJvAv9Fv&$vPgGyvOhd.h@vWv+vQGyvOQGSv9JGyvgvzv}v+v?Eyv)C!v&|v#OhfhFv(OCIvRGHSv+v9Sv+v?sv(*v?,pv{fGNYv;MGyvTv+v9Sv,yvzv(Yv(dEyv)GyvO*v}vtvQG_v+v?$v(C|vQYvgv>

(10),Iv+vEEfGyvAvGv9QHGyvgvQ<v+v?GyvAv,Sv=vtvBCh@vQGpvtvB|vh

(9)Andrew Rathmell, «Slow Pace of Reform Allows Gulf Dicontent to Simmer [1],» Jane’s Intelligence

Review, vol. 10, no. 5 (May 1998).

(10)Martin Walker, «The Democratic Mosaic,»Wilson Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 2 (Spring 2004).

41

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k(14).E:CfG3v;Ive*vGvOCf<vgv̂GyvOhdGyvgvQ<v+v?*@vAvzvuC*v?\vjv(_v9JChOfv(GJ

|v#CFv{GNYv;MGyvTv+v9Sv,|vDv{Ohyv?GN|v9QGJGyvgvQ<v+v?G3vAvJvOIGyvAv,*@vPvvQQCjLvav9H

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(12)fvO!v9f|vJv}vOGyv%v+v9Fv"v?,z|vJvOOGJGyvTv+v9Sv9JGyvMv9QFv+v?yvOhd|vGvzvUGyvAvgv9hfGyvMvzv+vGv,,yBQGA,GyvgvOO18

(BPGQ/|9QS2006).

(13)G!vvvvdvvvvQ:Madeleine K. Albright, Vin Weber and Steven A. Cook, In Support of Arab Democracy:Why

and How?, Task Force Report; no. 54 ([New York]; Washington, DC: Council on Foreign Relations

Press, 2005), <http://www.cfr.org>; Steven A. Cook, «The Right Way to Promote Arab Reform,»

Foreign Affairs (March-April 2005), and Gwenn Okruhlik, «Saudi Arabian-Iranian Relations:

External Rapprochement and Internal Consolidation,»Middle East Policy, vol. 10, no. 2 (June 2003).

(14)Hassan M. Fattah: «Arab Democracy, a U.S. Goal, Falters,» New York Times, 10/4/2006, and

«Drive for Democracy Stalls in Arab World Amid Rise of Islamists and Iraq Chaos, Rulers Delay

Reforms Despite U.S. Hopes,» International Herald Tribune, 10/4/2006, p. 1.

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44

(15)Alan Richards, «Democracy in the Arab Region: Getting There from Here,» Middle East Policy

Council Journal, vol. 12, no. 2 (Summer 2005), <http://www.mepc.org/journal_vol12/0506_

richards.asp>, and Brian Cloughley, «Democracy, Bush-style, in the Gulf,» Counterpunch (4

December 2004), <http://www.counterpunch.org/cloughley12042004.html>.

(16)Cloughley, Ibid; Adnan M. Hayajneh, «The U.S. Strategy: Democracy and Internal Stability in

the Arab World,» Alternatives (Turkish Journal of International Relations), vol. 3, nos. 2-3

(Summer-Fall 2004), and «U.S. Challenges and Choices in the Gulf: Political Liberalization,»

(Congressional Staff Briefing, Policy Brief no. 8, 2002), <http://www.mepc.org/forums_briefs/11-

22-02.asp>.

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45

(17)G!vdvQ|vOGLvzv?iv9!v~Gyv"vGv9QQ:«The Experience of Political Reform in the GCC States: Evaluation

and Analysis,» (Workshop, Organized by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the

Gulf Research Center, Dubai, UAE, 16-17 November 2005).

(18)G!vvdvvQ:|vvOGLvvzvv?fvv=vvOGyvvgvvR*vvRYvvtvvQQ:G3vvZvvOQ!vvqvvTvv&,hSager, Political Reform Measures from a

Domestic GCC Perspective.

(19)G!vdvQvvzv}v?Ch@v9hGj(Ottaway)G3vtvO|v?Eyv):«Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage?, Thirty-ninth in the

Capitol Hill Conference Series on U.S. Middle East Policy».

(20)Hayajneh, «The U.S. Strategy: Democracy and Internal Stability in the Arab World».

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(21)G!vvdvvQ|vvOGLvvzvv?fvv=vvOGyvvMvv9yvvufvv=vvOGyvvzvv&Q:«The Experience of Political Reform in the GCC States:

Evaluation and Analysis».

(22)Heard-Bey, «The United Arab Emirates: Statehood and Nation-building in a Traditional Society».

46

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(23)G3ZOQ!qT&.(24)J. E. Peterson, «Succession in the States of the Gulf Cooperation Council,» Washington Quarterly,

vol. 24, no. 4 (Autumn 2001).

(25)Terence P. Jeffrey, «Why UAE Isn’t United Arab Democracies,» Human Events (6 March 2006).

(26)G!vvdvvQ|vvOGLvvzvv?<vv9svvQGyvv"vvGvv9QQ:«The Experience of Political Reform in the GCC States: Evaluation

and Analysis».

(27)Mina Khalifa, «Reform! Reform! Buzzing Bahrain,» Middle East News Online, 5/6/2001.

(28)G!vdvQ|vOGLvzv?<v%v+v?GyvGvWv,Q:«The Experience of Political Reform in the GCC States: Evaluation

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G}|Q*w,|#!9I+?(30)hGyqA(QGyOGLz,|#!9I+?CLQi(31).

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(29)G!dQ|OGLz?G<AT9eGywA=,Q:G3ZOQ!qT&.(30)G!vdvQ:Chris Zambelis, «The Strategic Implications of Political Liberalization and Democratization

in the Middle East,» Parameters, vol. 35, no. 3 (Autumn 2005), and Delinda C. Hanley, «Municipal

Election Results Surprise Saudi Arabian Voters,»Washington Report onMiddle East Affairs, vol. 24,

no. 3 (April 2005).

(31)Dilip Hiro, «Allah and Democracy Can Get along Fine [Op-Ed],» New York Times, 1/3/2005.

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(32)Jones and Ridout, «Democratic Development in Oman».

(33)G!vdvQ|vOGLvzv?fv=vOGyvzv&<v9fv=v(OQ:«The Experience of Political Reform in the GCC States: Evaluation

and Analysis».

(34)«Qatari Foreign Minister Discusses Democratic Moves, Saudi Ties,» BBC Monitoring Middle

East, 24/6/2005.

49

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GyvWvgv=v+v?G3vgv9Q\v?fvzv)GyvJvZv(dfvzv)OhQSv+v9Sv,pv9fv{!vAv+vGv?$v+v}v"v?GyvJvRHGyvJv9vv~Gyvtv9Fv}v?Sv+v=vtv,fv}vzv+v?GNYv;MGyvTv+v9Sv,CSv+vQIyvzvJvRHGyvJv9vv~.E:CfIvQ*v?GyvAvgv=v+vQhG3vWv9Qvv?Gyv"vTv=v+v?|vtv9Q!v?<vOhd|vGvzvUGyvAvgv9hfGyvMvzv+vGv,*v=vtv+v%v9Q|vTvAv(i|vAvtvOefv#Ohd|vDv{GyvgvQ<v+v?GyvTvgv(O*v?hfv}v9fhiv+vQ$v9.|vhPyvxpv{fGSvAv}vQGQGyvJvRHGyvJv9vv~QGyv%v+v}v"v?fvzv)Gyv(Gsvh

(35)Mary Anne Weaver, «Revolution from the Top Down,» National Geographic, vol. 203, no. 3

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51

(37)Aaron David Miller, «It May Take Decades to Loosen the Rulers’ Iron Grip,» International

Herald Tribune, 25/3/2005, p. 6.

(38)Peterson, «Succession in the States of the Gulf Cooperation Council».

(39)Martin Asser, «World: Middle East Analysis: Gulf Democracy Gets Boost,» BBC News, 9/3/1999,

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/292792.stm>.

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52

(40)Lisa Blaydes, «Repression, Reform, and Civil Society: Modeling Political Liberalization in the

Middle East,» paper presented at: The Annual Meeting of the American Political Science

Association, Philadelphia, PA, 28-31 August 2003.

(41)Fareed Zakaria, «Islam, Democracy and Constitutional Liberalism,» Political Science Quarterly,

vol. 119, no. 1 (Spring 2004).

(42)Blaydes, Ibid.

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