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7/31/2019 VanLuong.Blogspot.Com_nh hng TGH ln cn cn thng mi
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Ti: NH HNG CA T GI HI OI LN CN CN THNG MI.
Danh sch nhm:
1. L Th Ngc Anh TC3K352. Phng Th L TC3K353. inh Th Tn TC3K354. Nguyn an Thanh TC3K355. Bi Yn Thanh TC3K356. Nguyn Ngc T Uyn TC3K357. on Kim Vn TC2K35
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A/.L thuyt truyn thng:
Nu ng tin ca mt nc bt u tng gi so vi ng tin ca cc nc khc,
ti khon vng lai ca nc s gim nu cc yu t khc bng nhau. Hng ha xut
khu thnc ny s trnn mc hn i vi i vi cc nc nhp khu nu ng tin
ca h mnh.Kt qu l nhu cu cc hng ha s gim. Ngc li, nu ng ni t ca
mt quc gia gim gi th s c tc dng khuyn khch tng xut khu ca quc gia v
ng ni t gim gi s lm hng ha xut khu t quc gia trnn rhn trc i
vi ngi nc ngoi.
Tuy nhin trong tc ng ca t gi hi oi ln cn cn thng mi trong thc ti
khi li khng din ra nh trong l thuyt nu trn.
B/. Tm tt mt s nghin cu trc y.
Di y l mt tng quan ngn gn cung cp cc phng php v kt qu ca cc
ti liu nghin cu i vi cc nn kinh t pht trin v mi ni.iu ny s chng minh
rng s a dng ca kt qu, thng l vi cc quc gia ging nhau, c th do bng
chng thc nghim trch tcc thi im khc nhau v cc phng php khc nhau .Cc
nc pht trin, c bit l Hoa K, nhn c nhiu s quan tm nht trong lnh vcnghin cu ny.
STT Tc gi Nm Phng php Kt lun
1 Rose v Yellen 1989 S dng d liu tch bit
(disaggregated) v thng
mi song phng trong
trng hp d liu ca M
giai on 1960 n 1985.
-Khng tm thy c im no h
trcho hiu ng ng cong J
-Cng khng phi bng chng v
mi quan h di hn.
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2 Bahmani
Oskooee v
Brooks
1999 Phn tch d liu tch bit v
thng mi song phng Hoa
K i vi 6 i tc thng
mi ln bng cch s dngcc phng php tip cn
ARDL (pht trin bi Pesaran
v Shin (1997) v Pesaran,
Shin v Smith (1996))
- tm thy bng chng ca hiu
ng ng cong J.
- Tuy nhin h lm bo co
vmi quan h di hn ng kgia cn cn thng mi v t gi
hi oi, ch ra rng s gim gi
thc ca ng la M c nh
hng thun li ti cn cn
thng mi ca M.
3 Shirvani vWilbratte
1997 S dng mt phng phptip cn VECM cho Hoa K
vi cc nc G7.
H tm thy bng chng ca mthiu ng ng cong L o
ngc.
4 Demirden v
Pastine
1995 S dng phng php VAR
ca Sim.
Chng minh trong v d thc
nghim n gin rng: hiu ng
phn hi ( feedback effects) trong
mi trng t gi hi oi linh
hot c th l ng k - kt qu
ca hiu ng ng cong J.
5 Felmingham 1988 Kim tra cc mnh ca
ng cong J bng cch sp
t mt tr phn phi
khng gii hn (A
unrestricted distributed lag)
vi d liu ca c cho giai
on 1965-1985.
ng cng khng th tm thy
bng chng v hin tng ng
cong J
6 Marwah v
Klein
1996 S dng d liu tch bit
trong mt hi quy IV v OLS
Tm thy bng chng ca mt
ng cong S cho c Canada v
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cho giai on 1977 n 1992. Hoa K. Theo kt qu ca h, cn
cn thng mi lc u gim khi
ph gi, sau l mt s ci thin
cn cn thng mi - hiu ngin hnh ca ng cong J. Tuy
nhin, sau mt vi qu c v c
xu hng cn cn thng mi xu
i. Pht hin gi nh cc phn
ng hnh ch S ca cn cn
thng mi vi nhng thay i v
thng mi c cp trongBackus, Kehoe v Kydland
(1994).
7 Bahmani-
Oskooee v
ALSE
1994 Th nghim 41 nc pht
trin v km pht trin v s
tn ti ca ng lin kt
(cointegration )v hiu ng
ng cong J p dng th tchai bc Engle-Granger.
Kt qu cho thy cn cn thng
mi v t gi hi oi thc l
ng lin kt ch c 14 quc gia.
Trong cc nc tham gia ng
lien kt, c mt s bng chngca hiu ng ng cong J.
8 Gupta-Kapoor
v
Ramakrishnan
1999 Phn tch tc ng ca stng
gi ng yn trn d liu cn
cn thng mi Nht Bn i
vi by i tc thng mi
ln, s dng VECM.
Hm phn ng thc y c
tnh(the estimate impulse
response function) ch ra s
tn ti ca mt ng cong J
Nht Bn.
9 Jung v
Doroodian
1998 H p dng m hnh tr
Shiller vi s khc bit u
tin tm kim c im h
trcho hiu ng ng cong
Kt qu tng t nh trn cho
Nht Bn.
Bng chng dng nh cho thy
rng ng cong J l mt hin
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J. tng thc nghim, tc l n c
th hoc khng thc tm thy
trong mt quc gia nht nh.
10 Baharumshah 2001 S dng m hnh VAR khng
gii hn cho cc cn cn
thng mi song phng ca
Thi Lan v Malaysia vi
Hoa K v Nht Bn cho giai
on 1980 n 1996.
ng tm thy mi quan h di hn
n nh v tch cc gia cn cn
thng mi v t gi hi oi.
Bng chng v phn ng ngn
hn ca cn cn thng mi h
trhiu ng ng cong J l phatrn. Mt ng cong J tr hon
c v p dng cho d liu ca
Thi Lan trong khi khng c h
tr no cho ng cong J c
tm thy trong d liuca
Malaysia.
11
Bahmani
Oskooee v
Kantipong
2001 Th nghim ng cong J
trn cc d liu tch bit gia
Thi Lan v cc i tc
thng mi ln nh c,
Nht Bn, Singapore, Anh, v
Hoa K cho giai on 1973
n 1997.
H ch tm thy bng chng ca
ng cong J trong thng mi
song phng vi M v Nht Bn
12
Upadhyaya v
Dhakal
1997 Kim tra hiu qu ca ph gi
ln cn cn thng mi 8
nc pht trin (Colombia,
Cyprus, Hy Lp, Guatemala,
Pht hin thc nghim ca h l
mu thun vi nhng pht hin
ca Baharumshah vThi Lan.
H cung cp bng chng dng
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Mexico, Morocco, Singapore
v Thi Lan) p dng cc
phng php c xut
bi Wickens v Breusch(1988).
nh cho thy rng ch trong
trng hp ph gi ca Mexico l
ci thin cn cn thng mi
trong di hn.
13 Bahmani
Oskooee
2001 iu tra phn ng lu di ca
cn cn thng mi cc quc
gia Trung ng vi vic ph
gi bng cch p dng
phng php Engle-Grangerv ng lin kt Johansen-
Juselius.
Bng chng cho thy rng c tn
ti mt nh hng di hn tch
cc ca s ph gi thc ln cn
cn thng mi cho by quc gia
(Bahrain, Ai Cp, Jordan,Morocco, Syria, Tunisia v Th
Nh K). Trong trng hp ca
Morocco, iu ny i lp vi cc
kt quthu c bi Upadhyaya
v Dhakal.
14 Wilson 2001 Kim tra mi quan h gia
cn cn thng mi thc v t
gi hi oi thc cho thng
mi hng ha song phng
gia Singapore, Hn Quc v
Malaysia i vi Hoa K v
Nht Bn.
Khng c bng chng ca hiu
ng ng cong J c tm thy
ngoi tr thng mi gia Hn
Quc vi Hoa K.
15 Akbostanci 2002 S dng hm phn ng y
tng qut(the generalized
impulse response function).
- Tm thy s h tr cho mi
quan h di hn tch cc gia t
gi hi oi v cn cn thng
mi.
- Trong ngn hn cn cn thng
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Cho n y, cc u th ca bng chng cho thy rng Hoa K khng th hin
rng s co gin nhp khu v xut khu ngn hn dn n mt hiu ng ng cong J.
H trcho mi quan h di hn n nh gia cn cn thng mi M v cc yu t ca
n c trn ln. Mt khc, Nht Bn l mt v d v sco gin thng mi dn ti hn
mi phn ng vi ph gi theo
hnh ch S.
Quan im ny lin quan vi mi
quan h tch cc di hn ca ra bi Bahmani Oskooee
(2001). Tuy nhin Kale (2001)
thu c kt qu mu thun, cung
cp bng chng v tc ng di
hn tiu cc ca ph gi trn cn
cn thng mi. Trong ngn hn
Kale tm thy bng chng camt hiu ng ng cong J tr(a
delayed J-curve effect).
16
Hacker v
Hatemi
2002 Nghin cu trong cc nc
CEEC, xem xt d liu
song phng tch bit gia
Cng ha Sc, Hungary v BaLan i vi c.
- H pht hin ra bng chng ca
mt mi quan h di hn tch cc
gia cn cn thng mi v t gi
hi oi cho cba nc.- Cng ha Sc v Ba Lan dng
nh c c im dn n hiu
ng ng cong J. iu ny
khng ng trong trng hp ca
Hungary.
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tng ng cong J.Tip theo l nhng nghin cu lin quan n cc nc km pht
trin, ch yu mi ni thtrng chu .
Nhn chung, bng chng cho thy rng ng cong J khng phi l mt quy lut
thc nghim. Vi mt s quc gia, hiu ng ng cong J c p dng ch yu, mt s
nc khc khng c. Cc bng chng h trs tn ti ca mt mi quan h di hn n
nh tch cc gia cn cn thng mi v t gi hi oi (tr mt vi ngoi l) ng ch
nht l Hoa K.
C/.Tm hiuc thhn cc nghin cu gn y i vi mt snc.
I.Malaysia
Bi nghin cu: ca Ng Yuen-Ling, Har Wai-Mun, Tan Geoi-Mei vo nm 2008ti Malaysia. Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: An Empirical Study
on Malaysia
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1398329
M hnh cn cn thng mi trong bi bo ny tun theo phng trnh tng t
c la chn t Shirvani v Wilbratte (1997),Baharumshah (2001), Gomez v Alvarez-
Ude (2006), trong nhn mnh t gi hi oi trong bng chng t cc quan h thngmi song phng.
NX=NX(Y,Y*, ), cn cn thng mi l mt hm theo cc bin: thu nhp trong
nc y, thu nhp nc ngoi Y* v t gi hi oi . Hm c dng nh sau:
lnTBt = 0 + 1 lnYt + B2 ln Y*
t + B3 ln RERt +ut
T gi hi oi thc, RERt, th hin t l Ringgit Malaysia (RM) so vi ng
Dollar M (USD) v Y * t din t nh tng sn phm quc ni ca Hoa K.
Cc d liu hng nmc s dng trong m hnh ny tnm1955n 2006 thu
c t Qu Tin t Quc t(IMF). Trong thi gian , Malaysiac mt sthay i ng
k trong t gi hi oi thc vs mt cn bng thng mi. Do iu ny cung cp
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1398329http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1398329http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1398329 -
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mtiukinnghincuthun li xem xt liunhng thay i trongt gi hi oi
cthc snh hng nkhi lngthng mi.
Th nghimJohansen-Juselius cs dng din t cc kim tra l thuyt v s
lng ccmiquanhlu ditn ti trongphng trnh. Kt qu cho du dng 3cat
gi hi oi(RER) th hin cho vicgimgitin tto ramt s ci thintrongcn cn
thng mitrong di hn.
Th nghim ca Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) vth nghim ca Philips-
Perron (PP)chothyrnglnRERc tch hpbc 1
Th nghim Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) cng cho thy ln
RERc tch hpbc 1
Phng php Engle-Granger cho kt qu l cmi quan htuyn tnh gialnTB
vilnRER, YlnvlnY*.
vicgimgitin tto ramt sci thintrongcn cn thng mitrong di hn. kim tras tn ti cahiungng congJMalaysia, tin hnhkim traphn
ng cacn cn thng mivii mi trong t gihi oi thc.Hiu ng ng cong J
c nghals gim gi ni t slm trm trng thmcn cn thng mitrong ngn hn
vsau cnhng ci tin sau mt thi gian.
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T hnh 1, chng ta thy rng cn cn thng mi tng mt cch nhanh chng
p ng s i mi do ni t gim gi trong hai nm tip theo. Sau , cn cn thng
mi c ci thin t t xung t nm 2 n nm 7.V sau , tnh trng ny tip
tc c hiu lc vnh vin. T hnh 1, tc ngkhng theo cc m hnh J-ng cong cin.
II.Cc nc c hiu ngng cong J.
1. L thuyt.ng cong J l mt ng m t hin tng cn cn thng mi b xu i
trong ngn hn v ch ci thin trong di hn. ng biu din hin tng ny ging
hnh ch J. Theo kt qu nghin cu ca Krugman (1991), ngi tm ra hiu ngng cong J khi phn tch cuc ph gi la M trong thi gian 1985 1987, th ban
u cn cn thng mi xu i, sau khong hai nm cn cn vng lai c ci
thin.
Nguyn nhn xut hin ng cong J l do trong ngn hn hiu ng gi c c tnh
tri hn hiu ng s lng nn lm xu i cn cn thng mi, ngc li trong di hn,hiu ng s lng c tnh tri hn hiu ng gi c lm cn cn thng mi c ci
thin.
2.Phn tch mt strng hp c th.
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2.1/ Mt snc ng Nam .
Bi nghin cu: T gi hi oi v cn cn thng mi ng : c tn ti
ng cong J? (2003) (Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a
Jcurve?)
Tc gi: Olugbenga Onafowora, Trng i hc Susquehanna, Economics
Bulletin, vol.5,No.18, pp 1-13
a/Mc ch nghin cu:Nhiu phn tch thc nghim cho thy rng, c nhng m
hnh hi qui v m hnh kinh tu c p dng cho tng quc gia ring bit, c tin
hnh xem lm th no t gi hi oi c thtc ng n cn cn thng mi v s
pht trin ca quc gia. Mc d c nhiu nghin cu l thuyt v thc nghim v vic
thay i t gi hi oi c nh hng thno n cn cn thng mi, vn cn c bt
ng lin quan n cc mi quan h gia cc bin s kinh t v hiu qu ca vic ph gi
ng tin nh mt cng ctng s cn bng thng mi ca mt quc gia.
Do , tc ng cathay it gi hi oitrncn cn thng miphi c xem
xtmt cu hi mtchai quan imphntchv thc nghim.
Mt s st gim trong t gi hi oi c thy phn ln cc nc ng t
gia nhng nm 1990, cung cp 1 c hi tr li cu hi c hay khng ph gi ng
tin ca mnh c 1 tc ng ng kn dng chy thng mi, v c hay khng xy ra
cc iu kin ca Marshall-Lerner (ML). Mc ch ca bi bo ny l kim tra cc
mi quan h gia cn cn thng mi thc vi t gi hi oi thc cho cc nc ASEAN-
Thi Lan, Malasia v Indonesia trong thng mi song phng vi M v Nht Bn.
thc hin iu ny, bi vit ny s dng cng c phn tch ng lin kt (cointegration-
phng php xc nh mi lin h di hn gia cc bin chui thi gian) v m hnh cha
li vector (VECM- x l tt c cc bin ni sinh trong m hnh) t kim nh nhng
nh hng ca nhng bin i v theo di hiu ng ng cong J tim nng trong cc d
liu.
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b/ Din gii m hnh
Cn cn thng mi thng c o l s khc bit gia gi tr tng kim ngch
xut khu v tng lng nhp khu.Trong nghin cu ny, chng ti nh gi cn cn
thng mi l t l ca gi tr xut khu song phng (X) vi gi tr nhp khu songphng (M).T l X / M hoc nghch o ca n c s dng trong iu tra thc
nghim v mi quan h gia cn cn thng mi v t gi hi oi.Mt l do cho vic s
dng n l t l ny l khng nhy cm vi cc n vo lng v c thc hiu l
cn cn thng mi danh ngha hoc thc (Bahmani Oskooee, nm 1991). Hn na, theo
ghi nhn ca Boyd et al.(2001), t l trong mt m hnh logarit cung cp cho cc iu
kin Marshall-Lerner chnh xc hn.
Chng ti xc nh cn cn thng mi song phng thc s l mt hm s ca
thu nhp trong nc, thu nhp ca nc ngoi, t ltrao i song phng, v mt bin
gi(0,1) nm bt sthay i trong quan hthng mi song phng kt qu t cuc
khng hong ti chnh chu nm 1997. Hnh thc gin lc ca phng trnh c a
ra nh sau:
ln X/M t 0 1 ln Yt 2 ln Yt * 3 ln RER t 4D97 t
Ch thch:
ln l logarit t nhin
Ytl thu nhp trong nc thc s
Yt* l thu nhp ca nc ngoi
RERtl t gi hi oi song phng thc t
D97l mt bin gi m mt gi tr ca s khng trong khong thi gian trc nm
1997
t: l mt thut ng li
RERtc nh ngha l RERt = (EP * / P), E l t gi hi oi danh ngha hiu
qu, v P l mc gi trong nc v nc ngoi tng ng.
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(1) m t mi quan h cn bng di hn gia cc bin trong m hnh cn cn
thng mi song phng thc cho mi quc gia.
c/.Kt qu thc nghim
Trong tt c trng hp, kt qu cho thy mt mi quan h tch cc trong di hn
gia gia t gi hi oi thc v cn cn thng mi thng mi thc, nh s c d
kin nu s mt githcdn n s lng xut khu nhiu hn v s lng nhp khut
hn. Kt qu cho Indonesia-Nht Bn, Indonesia, M, v Malaysia M ch ra rng cn
cn thng mi thc c mt mi quan h di hn tiu cc vi thu nhp thc t trong nc
v mt mi quan h tch cc vi thu nhp di hnca nc ngoi. Nhng du hiu ny l
nhng g chng ta mong i nu nhu cu l ng lc trong vic xc nh hng ho xut
khu, nhp khu. Trong cc m hnh Thi Lan-Nht Bn, Thi Lan-M, v Malaysia,
Nht Bn, cn cn thng mi thc c mt mi quan h tch cc vi thu nhp thc trong
nc v mt mi quan h tiu cc lu di vi thu nht nc ngoi thc. Nhng du hiu
ny l nhng g chng ta mong i nu mt gia tng trong thu nhp thc t l do tng
nng sut sn xut hng ha thay th nhp khu v cung cp ng lc trong xc nh xut
khu v nhp khu.
Trong hnh 1 v 2, hiu ng ng cong Jcho quan st Indonesia trong thng
mi song phng vi Nht Bn v M. Sau khi ph gi ni t, Indonesia cho thy s
thm ht ban u ca cn cn thng mi nhng sau l mt s ci thin lu di.Cc
hnh cn li cho thy kt qu tng t Indonesia.
Cc m hnh trc cho thy sau khi mt s ph gi c mt xu hng cho cn
cn thng mi u tin xu i v sau ci thin, nhng sau mt vi qu, cn cn
thng mi xu i mt ln na.
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d/ Kt lun:
Mc tiu ca bi bo nyckimtrangn hnvnh hnglu dicat gi hi
oithctvcn cn thng mithc s chocc nc ASEAN-ThiLan, Malaysia,
vIndonesiatrong thng misongphngviMv Nht Bnv xem xt s tn ti ca
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cc iu kin ML. Trong mi trng hp, phn tch ng lin kt ch ra rng c mt mi
quan h lu di gia cc trng thi n nh gia cn cn thng mi, t gi hi oi thc,
thu nhp trong nc v thu nhp nc ngoi. V cc m hnh kh n nh trong giai on
phn tch.
i viIndonesiavMalaysiatrong thng misong phngM vNht Bn,vThi
Lantrong thng misong phngviM, nhng pht hin cachngtichothyrng c
nhnghiu ngng congJ-ngn hn. Vic st gi ni t cho thy 1 s xu i trong cn
cn thng mi ko di khong giai on, nhng iu ny c theo sau bi mt s
ci tin trong thi gian di. Thi Lan c phongtroidintrong thng
misongphngviNht Bn: mtbin ng t gihi oi thc lmgim gini t ban
uc ci thinsau trnn ti thnv sau ci thincn cn thng mi.
M hnh ny khng h trgi thuytng congJ-cin, nhnglphhpvi cc
m hnhS-ng cong m tBackus(1994) vMarwahvKlein(1996).
Nhn chung, kt qu phn tch cho thy iu kin ca ML tn ti trong thi gian
di vi cc mc khc nhau ca hiu ng ng cong J trong ngn hn. Nhng pht
hincmtstc ng i vicc quc giang trong thng mi song phngvi Nht
BnvM.Cn cvo iu kin ML, vic tip tc mt gi tin t ca ccncng so
vi ng USDv ng ynNhtBnc th sdn ns ci thin trongcn cn thng
micahvi M vNhtBn.Tuy nhin,s ci tin nyxy rachc3 hoc4 giai
onsaukhimt s ph githcs.
2.2.Crotia
Bi nghin cu:nh hng ca thay i t gi hi oi thc ln cn cn
thng mi Croatia(The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance in
Croatia).IMF Working Paper, April 2004.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=878888
Tc gi:Tihomir Stucka
Authorized for distribution by Jeroen J. Kremers
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=878888http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=878888http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=878888 -
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Tihomir Stucka l C vn Gim c iu hnh ca IMF Armenia, Bosnia v
Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel, Cng ha Nam T c ca
Macedonia, Moldova, Vng quc H Lan, Romania v Ukraine.
Bi vit ny c cng b trc l Working Paper No. W-l1 (10/2003) Ngn hng quc gia Croatia.
a/ Mc ch nghin cu.
Thnh phn chnh ca s thm ht ti khon vng lai ng kCroatia l thm
ht thng mi hng ha do tnh trng tr tr xut khu v gia tng nhp khu trong ba
nm qua. ci thin cn cn thng mi c hai phng php tip cn nhm thay i
khnng cnh tranh trong nc bng s can thip ca chnh ph:
-Phng php tip cn ni b da trn chnh sch t pha nh cung cp, chng hnnh tc ng n nng sut lao ng, tin lng bng cch kim ch lm pht, gim thu
(v dnh phn thung gp hoc thu li nhun (profit tax) ca nh sn xut) hoc ni
lng cc iu kin cng nhc trn thtrng lao ng.
-Phng php tip cn tbn ngoi lph gi (lm mt gi ni t).
Cc tranh lun Croatia trong vic gim bt thm ht hng ha c phn chia
thnh 2 nhm: mt nhm ng h vic gim t gi hi oi danh ngha, nhm khc ng h
vic duy tr chnh sch t gi hi oi th ni c qun l. Tuy nhin cho n nay, vnang thiu mt c tnh chnh thc nhng tc ng trong di hn v ngn hn ca s
thay i t gi hi oi ln cn cn thng mi hng ha. y chnh l mc ch cho
bi nghin cu ny.
b/ L do nghin cu phn ng trong ngn hn v di hn ca cn cn thng
mi do nhng thay i trong t gi hi oi.
Vic lng ha phn ng trong ngn hn v di hn ca cn cn thng mi hng
ha i vi nhng thay i trong t gi hi oi l rt quan trng vi cc chnh sch kinh
t v nhiu l do:
-u tin, n thit lp mt mi quan h di hn n nh(a stable long-run
relationship) gia vic thay i tgi v cn cn thng mi hng ha.Nu nh mt mi
quan h di hn n nh khng tn ti th vic gim t gi hi oi (ph ging tin
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trong nc)dng nh khng phi l mt cch hp l ci thin khnng cnh tranh
ca quc gia trn c slu di.
-Th hai, nu mt mi quan h di hn tn ti th n l cn thit thit lp mt s
ph gi dn n mt s ci thin cn cn thng mi rng trong di hn.-Thba, lng ha mc ci thin ca cn cn thng mi sc nh mong
mun, v lm nh vy s cho php chng ta cn nhc li ch ca s cn bng thng mi
so vi chi ph ph gi di hn (the costs of permanent depreciation).
-Tht, vic c tnh nh hng ngn hn cung cp thng tin vtc ng trc
mt v trung hn ca sthay i t gi hi oi ln cn cn thng mi. C thhn, cu
hi y l liu ph gi c gy ra tc ng ngn hn bt li n cn cn thng mi hng
ha khng? Nu c, n c v hp l o lng thi gian duy tr v mc nh hngbt li. y thng l mt cu hi thc nghim, v trong ti liu c gi l hiu ng
ng cong J.
-Thnm, kt qu trnh by c th gp phn to nn ci nhn su sc hn v s lan
truyn ra quc t ca nhng bin ng trong hot ng kinh t v gi c.
-Th su, suy rng hn, vic c tnh cng c th cung cp mt s thng tin v tc
ng ca chnh sch gim chi tiu (c v ti kha v tin t) ln cn cn thng mi trong
nc.-Th by, n c th khuyn khch hn na vic phn tch tc ng cho vay ng
k ca chnh phnc ngoi ln cn cn thng mi v ti khon vng lai ni chung.
-Th tm, kt qu ny c thng mt vai tr quan trng trong vic nh gi s
ph hp ca mt chnh sch can thip bt cn xng ca ngn hng trung ng i vi
mt la chn khc nh a voch neo t gi kiu con rn tin t (crawling- peg)
h trs ph gi di hn ca ng ni t.
c/Cc iu kin trong bi nghin cu.
-Cc phn ng ca cn cn thng mi hng ha do thay i t gi hi oi c
nh gi trong mt m hnh thay th khng hon ho truyn thng gia 2 nc.
-Cn cn thng mi xp x bng dng tin tng hp ca su i tc thng mi
ln ca Croatia (trung bnh chim trn 55% tng thng mi ca n).
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-T gi hi oi thc c hiu lc (The real effective exchange rate_ REER) c
m phng bng cch s dng ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) v ch s gi sn xut (PPI),
thng c gi l ccphngphp o lng cnh tranh (competitiveness measures).
-Thu nhp trong nc v ngoi nc c i din bi GDP.-Thi gian quan st tqu u tin ca nm 1994 n qu II nm 2002.
-Ba k thut lp m hnh v hai phng php o lng cnh tranh c s dng
t c kt quchnh xc hn.
-iu ny c thc hin vi lu rng Croatia l mt quc gia ang chuyn i
vi chui thi gian ngn c sn v mt mi trng kinh doanh nng ng c trng bi
nhiu gi tr ngoi lai.
-Vic c tnh phn ng ca cn cn thng mi do ph gi th hin bi kt qubnh qun gia quyn ca bin s tng thu nhp tnc ngoi trn su i tc thng mi
ln v s bin ng c tnh trung bnh ca t gi hi oi thc c hiu lc. Ni cch
khc, phn ng ca cn cn thng mi kt hp vi cc phn ng bt i xng ca dng
chy thng mi i vi sthay i t gi hi oi qua su quc gia.
d/ Tgi hi oi thc v spht trin hng ho mu dch Croatia.
Theo mc ch ca bi nghin cu ny, nh hng ca t gi hi oi thc c
tnh tonlin quann suqucgiagiao dch datrnchsgi tiu dng(CPI) vch sgisn xut(PPI). Tc ng ca t gi hi oi thcda trnch sCPI vPPIthng c coi
l phng php o lng khnng cnh tranh ca mt quc gia.
Ch s gi tiu dng chathng tin vgihng ha cui cnggiao dchvkhnggiao
dch, bao gm cnhp khu.Tri ngc vi PPI, CPI khng cha
thngtinlinquannhng ha trung gian, nguyn liu, hng ha vncmuabinh sn
xut.Ngoi ra, n cn c biu hin bi nhiu dng khc nhau v d nhgihnhchnhvp dngthutiu thc bit. Tuy nhin, k tkhi lao ng u vo c nh gi
ph hp vi ch s CPI th c thcoin nh lmt ch shuchcho cc chi
phsnxut(MarshvTokarick, 1994).
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Ch s gi sn xut (PPI) thng c s dng mang tnh i din cho gi xut
khu trong nc. N c thit k o lng nhng thay i gi trong tng sn lng
ca ngnh cng nghip trong nc khng tnh im n ca u ra. Ch s PPI bao gm
gi c ca hng ha trung gian, nguyn liu v hng ha vn v t quan im ca lthuyt sn xut n tng t nh ch s gi xut khu (Altermann, 1997).K t khi PPI
mc tiu l sn xut trong nc, nhp khu c loi tr.
T gi hi oi thchiu quda trnch s gi tiu dnggim gi trthn so vi
mcPPItrao i gianm1998v 2000.iu nyldos tng trngmnh m cagi
ccadch v, sn phm thuc lv ung.Trong hai trng hp sau, vic tng gic
thclin quan ntngthutiu thc bit.
Hiu sut yukmcacn cn thng mi dn nxutchomt cch tipcnbn ngoi cithinkh nng cnh tranhcatnc. C hai kha cnh cacn cn
thng mip ngvi nhng thay itrongt gi hi oiphn ng di hn v ngn
hn. Trong di hn m t cctrng thi n nhgia cccp mi cat gi hi oiv
cn cn thng mi. Mt khi cc trng thi n nht c, cc phn hi s dn chm
li (worn out = c k) v h thng s tin n bc cn bng mi.
Ban u, s thm ht trong ngn hn ca cn cn thng mi cho thy 1 s st
gim gi tr c bit n bi ng cong J. Tn gi ny bt ngun tcc m hnhcacn cn thng migyrabicchp ngcha c chi trtrong khi thay it gi hi
oi. ng cong J xy ra khi gi tr xut khu gn vi ng ni t, hp ng ny c th
l trung hn.V th, gi xut khu tnh bng ngoi t s gim v cng thi im , gi
nhp khu s lm tng sn lng trong nc. Mt thi gian sau ti mc nhp khu v
xut khu s iu chnh 1 mc gi mi, cn cn thng mibt ucithin. Ni cch
khc,ccng congJi din cho mt conngchuynic thtmc cn
bngcnmc cn bngmi.
tr ca thi gian (time lag) din ra do nhiu l do nh l s nhn ra tr, quyt
nh tr, phn phi tr, i mi tr v sn xut tr (Junz and Rhomberg, 1973). S nhn
ra tr thi gian cn thitcho cc th trngnhn ra rngiu kinnng lc cnh tranh
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thay i.Quyt nh tr xyrado c 1 thigiancn thit thit lp kt nikinhdoanhvn
t hngmi.iu nyihiphixy dngmi quan hkhch hng-nh cung cpmimc
hai bn ukhng munphv.Thi gian tr giaohnglinquannthi gian cn thit
cung cp ccnthngsau khithanhtonc thc hinvccdng chythng micngb.
Kt lun:cc hiu ng ng cong J i din cho mt con ng chuyn tip c
tht mc cn bng (equilibriumlevel) mi do thay i tgi hi oi hin hnh.
Hin tng ny xyranh trnhtnhpht sinh dohon cnhcnh tranhmitrnphng
din cung v cu.
e/Din gii m hnh.
- M hnh l thuyt:
Trong : Md: Nhu cu nhp khu trong nc.
M*d: Nhu cu nhp khu ca phn cn li ca thgii.
Bin i ta c kt qu cn cn thng mi TB:
T gi hi oi thc c tng quan dng vi cn cn thng mi.
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- M hnh kinh t: 3 Phng php ARDLc pht trin bi Pesaran, Shin, vSmith (1995); Bewley (1979) cng cp bi Wickens Breusch (1988);
Pesaran v Shin (1997).
f/Kt lun
Bi vit ny c gng c tnh nh hng ca t gi hi oi vi cn cn thngmi s dng mt m hnh tinh gin. M hnh ny c c tnh bng cch s dng ba
phng phpARDL.
Cng vi baphng php lp m hnh, nghin cu ny s dnghai nh nghaca
t gihi oi thchiu quc ckt quchnh xc hn. Trung bnh chung, 1% s
gim gi tr ca ni t l kt qu ca s ci thin cn cn thng mi 0,94% v 1,3%.
Trung bnh cn bng mi c thnh lp sau khong 2,5 nm. Chiu di trung bnh ca
hiu ng ngc ca vic gim 1% gi tr l trn .Nghin cu ny tm thy bng chng
ca hiu ng ng cong JCroatia. Sgia tng thm ht trong cn cn thng mi l
kt qu ca hiu ng ng cong J c c tnh l t 2% v 3,3%. L mt nc ang
chuyn i, Croatia cho thy mt mi trng thng mi nng ng c trng vi nhng
quc gia khc. Do , kt qu cho thy iu g kh nhy cm v cc bin gi (tnh
khng chc chn). Tuy nhin, kt quthcnghimlphhpvi ngoi lca m hnh.Nhn
chung, trc gic c vkhng ng khi 1 s gim gi ni tkhng ng kthng xuynth hin trong chnh sch can thip t gi hi oi khng i xng(asymmetric) s c
mtnh hng thcthunlitrntonbnn kinh t, c tnh n tc dng phtim nngtiu
cc.
2.3.Paskitan
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khc l nhng l do chnh ng sau n. Thay v nhng l do kinh doanh trn, hip hi
ngoi thng, ha n hon thnh, tr ngi hnh chnh,s c sn ca u vo, s t tin
ca nh sn xut trong nc, nng lc sn xut... cng c th l yu t tr hon.
Thnh thong c dnh cho vic phn pht chm v thi gian thc hin thanhton mi c chun b cho n t hng c t sau s mt gi t gi hi oi thc.
Mua bn nguyn vtliu mi cng gy ra chm tr cho vic s dng hng tn kho ny
c gi l tr s thay th. Cui cng nhng khng phi l km quan trng nht l
tr sn xut trc khi nh sn xut trong nc tr nn t tin vo th trng hin ti s
cung cp cho h mt c hi li nhun.
Sau nm 1982, Pakistan t b ch t gi hi oi c nh v chuyn sang
ch t gi hi oi th ni sau thng 7 nm 2000 h thng ny c thay th bngh thng t gi hi oi th ni t do. N khng phi l mt t gi hi oi th ni trong
mt ngha thc t bi v Ngn hng nh nc ca Paskistan vn iu chnh t gi hi
oi thng qua can thip th trng, do c kh nng s gim gi thc l nguyn nhn
ci thin cn bng thng mi thng qua can thip thtrng t gi hi oi.
Trong bi nghin cu ny, mc ch l r sot cc iu kin Marshall-Lerner (ML)
c ng cho Pakistan trong di hn.iu kin ML cho thy rng co gin ca tng kim
ngch xut khu v nhp khu phi ln hn 1 nu ph gi l c mt tc ng tch ccln cn cn thng mi hn na, n khixng cho phn ln cc nc, mc d cc iu
kin c p ng trong di hn, trong ng lc hc ngn hn, tuy nhin, co gin t
gi hi oi ca nhu cu xut khu v nhp khu l khng codn v iu ny c th l
mt trong nhng yu t gii thch ng cong J.Xc nhn s ng ca iu kin ML
trong di hn v s tn ti ca ng cong J trong ngn hn cho trng hp
Paskitan.
Mc tiu ca nghin cu ny l c tnh tc ng ca s ph gi t gi hi oi
thc ln cn cn thng mi Pakistan. Nghin cu xem xt s c cn c ca cc iu
kin Marshall Lerner trong d liu Paskistan (1970-2008) bng cch s dng hm
phn ng ythc hin tng ng cong J. nh gi kt hp lu di gia cc bin
bng cch s dng kim nh ng lin kt Johansson.
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b/Din gii m hnh
b.1.L thuyt m hnh ha
L thuyt kinh t gii thch v chng ti tho lun rng s mt gi thc ca tin
t mt quc gia c nh hng tch cc n cn cn thng mi, nhng tnh ph hp cal thuyt ny ph thuc vo nhy khi lng xut khu, nhp khu n t gi hi o i
thc. Trong mt phn ca nghin cu ny, chng ti s c gng ly cc iu kin c
gi l iu kin Marshall Lerner. Cc iu kin gii thch nu mt gi thc s gy ra
ci thin cn cn thng mi khi co gin xut khu, nhp khu l kh cao v gi nh
tt c cc yu t khc khng thay i.
iu kin Marshall Lerner gii thch rng s mt githc gy ra s thng d cn
cn thng mi ch khi tng ca co gin ca xut khu v nhp khu hn ln hn 1.
(Ngun: Kinh t quc t, Paul Krugman, n bn th t trang 477)
b.2.M hnh ha v cc ngun d liu.
ln TBt= 1+ 1REERt+ 2ln GDPt+ 3ln GDPt*+ t
Trong :
ln= lgarit t nhin
TBt= cn cn thng mi (xut khu tr i nhp khu)
REERt = t gi hi oi thc c hiu lc
GDPt = tng sn phm quc ni
GDPt *= ch s th gii cng nghip ca nhng ngnh sn xut c chn ca
phn cn li ca GDP th gii (tng sn phm quc dn nc ngoi)
t= sai s hiu chnh
-Ngun d liu l Ch s Pht trin Th gii (WDI) v IFS caIMF t cc vn
khc nhau. Tt c bin ly n v ng la M.-Nghin cu bao gm 35quan st hng nm (1975 - 2009). Khi nim l thuyt
nhc nhrng xut khu v nhp khu tng l thu nhp thc ca i tc thng mi v
thu nhp trong nc i ln theo th t , v ngc li. Trong trng hp , chng ta c
th d on 2 0.
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-Tuy nhin, nhp khu c th gim trong khi thu nhp tng, khi sn xut hng ha
thay th hng nhp khu tng nh l kt qu ca s gia tng trong thu nhp thc, v trong
trng hp c cp, chng ti c th d on 2> 0 v 3
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Kt qu ca IRF (phng trnh phn ng y) cho thy rng iu kin Marshall
Lerner c Pakistan. Kt qu cho thy rng mt gi ca ng ni t dn n s st gim
bt ng trong thu nhp xut khu Pakistan. Cn cn thng mi vn cn tiu cc trong
2 nm nhng sau 2 nm, n bt u ci thin nh th hin trong s trn v dn n cn
cn thanh ton tch cc trong vng 4 nm. Kt qu xc nhn iu kin Marshall
Lernerbi nhng tng ng cong J. Onafowora (2003) cng chng minh kt qu
tng t cc nc ASEAN: Thi Lan, Indonesia v Malaysia.
d/Kt lun
Kt qu ca bi nghin cu ny cho thy rng s mt gi thc ca t gi hi oi
c tc ng tch cc ln cn cnthng mi. V vy, s mt gil c li cho xut khu
ca Paskitan. Nhng cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v nh kinh t b min cng gim
gi ng ni t bi v n c th nh hng xu n kinh t vm nh tin t tng hp, li
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sut v lm pht. Hn na tnh minh bch hon ton ca quc gia cng l yu t quan
trng xc nh dng chy thng mi. Ti Pakistan th trng t gi c hot ng
theo h thng t gi hi oi th ni t do, mt th trng c chnh quyn mnh m hn
l cn thit cho mc ch ny ni cch khc nhng nh u c c th ph hy th trngt gi hi oi v hy hoi t gi iu ny c th lm tn hi n chnh sch t gi hi
oi ca Paskitan.
2.4. Trung Quc.
Bi nghin cu: Thng d trong cn cn thng mi Trung Quc c thc
gim bi chnh sch t gi hi oi ?(Can the Chinese trade surplus be
reducedthrough exchange rate policy?) (2007)
Tc gi: Alicia Garca-Herrero and Tuuli Koivu
http://www.bis.org/repofficepubl/arpresearch200703.2.pdf
a/.Din gii m hnh:
C phn thng mi trn th gii ca Trung Quc pht trin cc k nhanh
chng trong nhng nm gn y. Trung Quc trthnh nc xut khu ln nht th
gii ( vi thng d thng mi 2011 l155,14 t).
Theo hi quan Trung Qucthng k, thng d thng mi ln ti 32 t la M
(hay 1,7%GDP) ch trong nm 2004. Tuy nhin, tnm 2005, thng d thng mi
tng vt, v nt gn 180 t la M vo nm 2006, hay gn 7% GDP ca Trung
Quc.Vic thng d thng mi mt lng lntrthnh vn quan trng khng chi
vi Trung Quc m cn chophncn li ca th gii.
Liu Trung Quc c nn cho php ng tin ca mnh nh gi caonh l mt
cng c gim thng d thng mi khng l ca n. Cu tr li ph thuc rt nhiu
vo hiu qusnh gi ng Nhn dn t c th gim xut khu v tng nhp khu.Bi
nghin cu phn tch iu nytheo kinh nghim s dng phn tch cng ng lin kt.
Theokt qu ny, thng d thng mi ca Trung Quc s thu nhsau mt snh gi
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thc s cang Nhn dn t, nhng s gim sc hn ch. Tc ng tng i nh
ch yu c gii thch bi tnh n hi gi, c bit thy i vi hng nhp khu.
xc nh nhy ca xut khu v nhp khu Trung Quc do s thay it
gi hi oi thc t, ta c tnh co gin gi ca khi lng nhp khu v xut
khu.Khun kh thc nghim chung cho cc loi hnh phn tch l cc cp phng
trnhsau y:
Xt = 0 + 1REERt + 2 + Yt* + i contronlst + t Mt = 0 + 1REERt + 2 + Yt* + i contronlst + t Xt: khi lng xut khu t Trung Quc Mt : khi lng nhp khuvo Trung Quc, REERt: t gi hi oithc ca ng Nhn dn t, Yt*: nhu cu nc ngoi Yt: nhu cu trong nc ca Trung Quc. 1: co gin gixut khu, 2: co gin thu nhp xut khu, 1: n hi gi ca hng nhp khu 2: co gin thu nhp ca hng nhp khu.
T gi hi oi thc (REER) c rt ra t ti chnh quc t ca IMF
thng k. N c xy dng nh sau:
REER = i)wi
N: slngtin tbao gmtrong ch mc Wi :trng lngca cc loi tin tthi RER: t gi hi oisongphngthcsivimigiao dchcaTrung Qucb/.phng php
Alicia Garca-Herrero v Tuuli Koivu (2007) s dng k thut hi nhp c
tnh co dn gi nhp khu v xut khu trong Trung Quc.
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V d: tnh hiu qu cc cng c t gi hi oi, ginh mt snh gi 10%
thc s ca ng Nhn dn t v p dng cc co gin gi c tnhxut khu v nhp
khu k t khi gia nhp WTO c bit n. Trn c s, xut khu s gim 14% v
nhp khu 12% trong nm 2005. T,thng d thng mi sc gim 26% vi mtsnh gi 10% thc sng Nhn dn t.
hiu r hn viu ny, c bit l l do gimnhp khu sau khi mt snh
gi thc t, bi nghin cu tp trung vo thng mi song phng. N ch ra rng,
nu mt snh gi thclm gim nhp khu t tt ccc i tc thng mi chnh ca
Trung Quc, chng ta c th ni rng nh gi cao lm gim nhu cu ti Trung Quc do
lin quan n s gim st trong xut khu. V chng ta thy rng cc nc ang xut
khu sang Trung Quc s c nhng phn ng khc nhau trc snh gi ny. iu ny
ni ln vic c s khc nhau gia cc nc v vic nh gi thc ca ng nhn dn t,
ty thuc vo thnh phn xut khu ca h sang Trung Quc.
c/. Kt lun
Bi bo ny cho thy bng thc nghim rng cn cn thng mi ca Trung Quc
l nhy cm vi binngt gi hiu dng thc. Trong thc t, vic c tnh co gin
di hn xut - nhp khu Trung Quc vi nhng thay i trong t l trao i hiu qu
thc s ca ng Nhn dn t trong khong thi giantnm 1994 n cui nm 2005,
ng tm thy bng chng mnh m rng mt snh gi thc s lm gim xut khu
trongdi hn theo mt cch kh ng k. Trong khi mun thay i thng d thng mi
th chnh sch t gi hi oi mt mnh khng th gii quyt s mt cn bng pht
trinca nn kinh t Trung Quc, c th l thng d thng mi phnh to.
Nh vy, v lu di, mt ng Nhn dn t c nh gi cao sgimthng dthng mi.Nhngngn hnhiu lccamt loi tin tmnhmhntrongthc t c
thltngthng d thng mido hiu ngng congJ.
D. iu kin Marshall-Lerner:
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Phn bin:Mc d hiu ng ng cong J chra c rng s mt gi ng ni t c hiu
qu tc th l lm tng gi nhp khu v lm gim gi xut khu. V vy, trong
mt thi gian ngn, cn cn thng mi c th thm ht trc khi nhng hiu quca sthay i trong gi cn i ca xut khu so vi nhp khu, em li s bnh
trng di hn ca xut khu v mt s ct gim nhp khu, s ci thin c cn
cn thng mi. Tuy nhin n vn c nhng hn ch v khng hon ton
ng.iu ny c th hin trong bi nghin cu ca Ng Yuen-Ling, Har Wai-
Mun, Tan Geoi-Mei vo nm 2008 ti Malaysia. M hnh cn cn thng mi
trong bi bo ny tun theo phng trnh tng t c la chn t Shirvani v
Wilbratte (1997), Baharumshah (2001), Gomez v Alvarez-Ude (2006), trong nhn mnh t gi hi oi trong bng chng t cc quan h thng mi song
phng.
iu kin Marshall Lerner
Marshall-Lerner tip cn cn cn thng mi theo phng php hm s, chng
minh l thuyt ng cong J v l thuyt truyn thng c nhng hn ch v khng hon
ton ng.
iu kin Marshall-Lerner pht biu rng, cho vic ph gi tin tc tc ng
tch cc ticn cn thng mi, th gi tr tuyt i ca tng hai co dn theo gi cca
xut khu v co dn theo gi c ca nhp khu phi ln hn 1.
Phng trnh ton hc:
e c nh ngha l gi ca mt n v tin tnc ngoi c quy vng ni
t.
S dng nh ngha ny, cn cn thng mi bng ng ni t, vi gi c trong
nc v nc ngoi chun ha cho mt, c cho bi:
Nx =X- Q e
X biu th xut khu, v Q nhp khu.
http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph%C3%A1_gi%C3%A1_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph%C3%A1_gi%C3%A1_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph%C3%A1_gi%C3%A1_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph%C3%A1_gi%C3%A1_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph%C3%A1_gi%C3%A1_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%C3%A1n_c%C3%A2n_thanh_to%C3%A1nhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%C3%A1n_c%C3%A2n_thanh_to%C3%A1nhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%C3%A1n_c%C3%A2n_thanh_to%C3%A1nhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gi%C3%A1_tr%E1%BB%8B_tuy%E1%BB%87t_%C4%91%E1%BB%91ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gi%C3%A1_tr%E1%BB%8B_tuy%E1%BB%87t_%C4%91%E1%BB%91ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gi%C3%A1_tr%E1%BB%8B_tuy%E1%BB%87t_%C4%91%E1%BB%91ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gi%C3%A1_tr%E1%BB%8B_tuy%E1%BB%87t_%C4%91%E1%BB%91ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gi%C3%A1_tr%E1%BB%8B_tuy%E1%BB%87t_%C4%91%E1%BB%91ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C4%90%E1%BB%99_co_d%C3%A3n_theo_gi%C3%A1_c%E1%BA%A3&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C4%90%E1%BB%99_co_d%C3%A3n_theo_gi%C3%A1_c%E1%BA%A3&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C4%90%E1%BB%99_co_d%C3%A3n_theo_gi%C3%A1_c%E1%BA%A3&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C4%90%E1%BB%99_co_d%C3%A3n_theo_gi%C3%A1_c%E1%BA%A3&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C4%90%E1%BB%99_co_d%C3%A3n_theo_gi%C3%A1_c%E1%BA%A3&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xu%E1%BA%A5t_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xu%E1%BA%A5t_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xu%E1%BA%A5t_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xu%E1%BA%A5t_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xu%E1%BA%A5t_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nh%E1%BA%ADp_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nh%E1%BA%ADp_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nh%E1%BA%ADp_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nh%E1%BA%ADp_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nh%E1%BA%ADp_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nh%E1%BA%ADp_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xu%E1%BA%A5t_kh%E1%BA%A9uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C4%90%E1%BB%99_co_d%C3%A3n_theo_gi%C3%A1_c%E1%BA%A3&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gi%C3%A1_tr%E1%BB%8B_tuy%E1%BB%87t_%C4%91%E1%BB%91ihttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%C3%A1n_c%C3%A2n_thanh_to%C3%A1nhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph%C3%A1_gi%C3%A1_ti%E1%BB%81n_t%E1%BB%87 -
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Phn bit i vi e cho:
Chia thng qua ca X:
trng thi cn bng,X= e Q.Do :
Nhn thng qua ca e:
M c th c th hin nh
niX e v Q el k hiu chung cho tnh n hi ca xut khu v nhp khu i vi t
gi hi oi tng ng.
cho s st gim gi tr tng i ca tin t ca mt quc gia (tc l 1 s gia
tng e bng cch s dng nh ngha trn) c 1 hiu ng tch cc v cn cnthng mi
ca nc , cc bn v trica phng trnh phi l tch cc (tc l gia tng e gy ramt s gia tng trong N x).Do :
M c th c vit l:
-
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Hiu qu rng ca ph gi i vi cn cn thng mity thuc vo cc co dn
theo gi. Nu hng xut khu co dn theo gi, th t l tng lng cu v hng ha s ln
hn t l gim gi; do , kim ngch xut khu s tng. Tng t, nu hng nhp khu co
dn theo gi, th chi cho nhp khu hng ha s gim. C hai iu ny u gp phn ci
thin cn cn thng mi.
-Mc d l thyt Marshall ch ra c nhng khuyt im ca hiu ng ng
cong J nhng bn thn n cng c hn ch. iu kin Marshall-Lerner cho rng cn
cn thng mi theo chiu hng tch cc sau khi ni t gim gi th tng ca cc co gin
ca cu cho xut khu v nhp khu l ln hn 1, iu ny thuyt phc v ti mt s
trng hp c bit, co gin ca cung l khng m c.
Nghin cu thc nghim cho thy, hng ha thng khng co dn theo gi c
trong ngn hn, bi v thi qun tiu dng ca ngi ta khng ththay i d dng. Do
, iu kin Marshall-Lerner khng c p ng, dn ti vic ph gi tin t ch lm
cho cn cn thng mi trong ngn hn xu i. Trong di hn, khi ngi tiu dng
iu chnh thi quen tiu dng ca mnh theo gi mi, cn cn thng mi mi c cithin.
E/.Kt Lun.
Nh vy, l thuyt truyn thng cho rng ng ni t gim s gip ci thin cn
cn thng mi. Theo iu kin Marshall-Lerner (M-L), iu ny ch xy ra khi gi tr
tuyt i ca tng hai co dn theo gi c ca xut khu v co dn theo gi c ca
nhp khu ln hn 1. Trn thc t vn tn ti hiu ng ng cong J, tc l ni t gimgi slm cn cn thng mi xu i trong ngn hn sau mi ci thin dn trong di
hn.V thi quen tiu dng khng ththay i nhanh chng, hng ho khng co dn theo
gi trong ngn hn, dn n vic iu kin M-L khng c p ng.Trong di hn, khi
-
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ngi tiu dng iu chnh thi quen tiu dng ca mnh theo gi mi, iu kin M-L
c p ng th cn cn thng mi mi c ci thin.