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顺应世界经济 不断变化的格局 与时俱进 贸易和发展报告 2013 联合国贸易和发展会议 贸发会议 联 合 国
Transcript of UNCTAD | Home - 贸易和发展报告 · 2014-08-29 · 2013 贸发会议 联 合 国...
2013
贸发
会议
联 合 国
顺应世界经济
不断变化的格局
与时俱进
贸易和发展报告2013
联合国贸易和发展会议
贸发会议
联 合 国
Printed at United Nations, Geneva1357684 (C)–July 2014–154
UNCTAD/TDR/2013
ISSN 0251-8015
年贸
易和
发展
报告
2013
2013
UNCTAD/TDR/2013
©
iii
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...................................................................................................................................................... xiii
.................................................................................................................................................. I–XVIII
2013
1
A. 1148
B. 101114
C. 211990 21
25293235
37
iv
47
A. 47
B. 4949505259
C. 60
D. 626367
E. 7072808487
89
91
95
103
A. 103
B. 105105108
v
C. 111111118
D. 125125127132
E. 137
138
140
vii
193064
120
2
5
9
13
22
23
24
27
28
/43
44
54
107
108
133
viii
1 2013 ........................................................................................7
2002 1 2013 8
12
14
16
19
26
30
31
/40
41
45
50
51
52
2012 61
( ) 62
69
71
74
77
78
106
109
112
/ 113
114
115
ix
117
118
( ) 122
123
xi
» ( ) ( )
» ( )
»
/
2012 (
( ) 20122012 (
( )
1,000
(/) 2000/2001
(0)
xiii
BISCISECBECLACEIBERMESCAPEUFAOFDIFSBGDPIEAILOIMFLDCLLRODAOECDOPECPPPREERSMETDRTNCUNCTAD
UNSDUSDAWTO
2008 2009
II
20122.2% 2013
( ) 1%5% 3%
2008
( )
20132%
2013 4.5% 5% 2012
( )
2012 5.3%
( )2013
III
2011 7.1% 2012 3.2% 2013
2010 2011 9% 2012 2.2%2012
2013
5%
3%
20122012 ( )
3% 2013
1990 28% 2003-200740% 2008 75%
2008-20092010 2011 5% 2012 2%
20123% 5% 2012 90%
2011
IV
2013
2012 2013
4%
2002-2007 27% 201113% 2012 7%
2002 2007 19% 2012 6%( )
2008-2009(2008 8 )
22%26% 2002
2007 11.3% 2011 1 2013 43.5% 12.4% 5.5%
2008-20092008 2012 1.7%
1970
2009
V
2008
VI
()
2008 20091990
79% 2012 60% 17%36% 2004
1990 2003-2007(
) ( )
20082008-2009
1995 30% 201240%
2008-2009
( 2008-2009 )
VII
1990
( )
2011-2012
VIII
( )
( )
IX
( )
/
X
( )
( )
XI
()
2009 26% 202041% 2030 58% 3
5 1.53 ( )
( )( )
XII
XIII
2008
2008
20102011
2011
XIV
XV
()
()
()
XVI
1980
( )
( )
XVII
( )
()
XVIII
1.
20122.2% 2013
1%( 1.1)4.7% 2.7%
2012
2008
( )
()
( )
( )
A.
2013
1.1
2005-2013( )
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013a
3.5 4.1 4.0 1.5 -2.2 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.1
2.4 2.8 2.6 0.0 -3.8 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.0
1.3 1.7 2.2 -1.0 -5.5 4.7 -0.6 1.9 1.93.1 2.7 1.9 -0.3 -3.1 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.7
( 27 ) 2.1 3.3 3.2 0.3 -4.3 2.1 1.6 -0.3 -0.2
1.7 3.3 3.0 0.4 -4.4 2.0 1.5 -0.6 -0.71.8 2.5 2.3 -0.1 -3.1 1.7 2.0 0.0 -0.20.7 3.7 3.3 1.1 -5.1 4.2 3.0 0.7 0.30.9 2.2 1.7 -1.2 -5.5 1.7 0.4 -2.4 -1.82.8 2.6 3.6 -1.0 -4.0 1.8 0.9 0.2 1.1
6.5 8.3 8.6 5.2 -6.6 4.5 4.5 3.0 2.7b 4.7 4.8 5.5 3.7 -4.3 0.0 1.1 -1.4 0.3
6.7 8.7 8.9 5.3 -6.8 4.9 4.8 3.4 2.9
6.4 8.2 8.5 5.2 -7.8 4.5 4.3 3.4 2.5
6.8 7.6 7.9 5.3 2.4 7.9 5.9 4.6 4.75.8 5.9 6.2 5.2 2.8 4.9 1.0 5.4 4.05.1 5.4 4.7 4.6 3.2 4.1 -6.1 7.8 3.66.7 6.5 7.7 6.6 4.9 6.4 4.8 5.3 5.45.3 5.6 5.5 3.6 -1.5 3.1 3.5 2.5 1.74.5 5.6 5.6 4.0 -1.9 5.9 4.3 3.0 3.17.4 9.4 5.8 3.1 -0.1 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.74.8 6.4 7.0 4.1 -0.2 4.1 5.2 5.0 4.13.2 5.2 3.3 1.2 -6.0 5.5 4.0 3.9 2.85.0 5.5 6.6 5.5 -0.2 6.4 4.6 2.5 3.2
3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 -0.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.57.8 8.6 9.0 5.8 3.9 8.9 7.1 5.0 5.28.6 9.9 11.0 6.9 5.9 9.5 7.7 6.0 6.1
11.3 12.7 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.8 7.68.0 8.3 8.9 5.2 4.7 9.4 6.6 3.0 4.3
9.0 9.4 10.1 6.2 5.0 11.2 7.7 3.8 5.25.8 6.1 6.6 4.3 1.2 8.0 4.5 5.4 4.76.8 7.0 4.6 3.8 -1.7 7.0 7.1 3.2 3.53.4 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.3 3.6 4.3 4.1 2.7
: ( / )2013 2013 2013 2013 4
2005 a b
20134 50
( 10%)2%2013
2%
1.7% 2012 2.2%
20133
2013
20134.5% 5% 2012
2012
2012 7.8%2013 7.6%
2013 6.1% 4.3%4.7%
( 2013 )
20117.1% 2012 3.2% 2013
2010 2011 9%2012 2.2% 20133.3%
2012
2013
2013
( ) 20135%
2013
3%
2012 2013
(2013 )
2012
2013
2012
( )
20122012
2013
2012( ) 3%
2013
()
1990 28% 2003-200740% 2008 75%
2.
( )
20122013
2008-20092010
2011 5.3% 20121.7%
( 1.2)
20122.8% 5% 2012
90%
20111
2013
2012
2012 1%2011 4.2% 2012 3.9%
2011 15.7%
2011 6% 2012 3.6%2011 7.4% 2012 4.5%
2011
2
2.5%
2012
1.2
2009-2012
( )
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
-13.3 13.9 5.2 1.8 -13.6 13.8 5.3 1.6-15.5 13.0 4.9 0.4 -14.6 10.8 3.4 -0.5
-24.8 27.5 -0.6 -1.0 -12.2 10.1 4.2 3.7-14.0 15.4 7.2 4.1 -16.4 14.8 3.8 2.8-14.9 11.6 5.5 -0.2 -14.5 9.6 2.8 -2.8-14.4 11.3 4.2 1.0 -28.2 15.9 15.7 3.9
-13.9 11.4 4.2 1.3 -29.1 19.7 17.4 5.0-9.7 16.0 6.0 3.6 -10.2 18.8 7.4 4.5-9.5 8.8 -8.3 5.7 -6.2 8.4 2.8 8.0-7.8 9.6 -0.7 0.1 -9.0 9.7 7.9 4.2-7.4 8.3 4.6 2.2 -17.9 22.5 10.8 2.5
-10.9 24.1 10.4 5.2 -5.3 22.7 7.4 4.3
-14.1 29.1 13.0 7.2 -1.1 25.4 10.3 5.9-6.1 10.0 8.8 -10.2 -5.5 14.0 6.0 2.0
-6.8 14.0 14.2 -2.5 -0.9 13.8 9.1 5.8-10.0 18.6 4.4 2.2 -15.8 22.0 6.7 6.0
-4.8 5.7 6.5 6.9 -14.2 8.4 8.1 5.8
2013
2007 7.5% 2008-2012 1.4%2003-2007 7.4%
2008-2009
( )201113% 2012 7.2%
( ) 2002-2007 27%1990
2012
2002 2007 19% 26% 20125.9% 4.3% 2012
()
20022007
14% 10%9% 2012
1.5% 2.5%0.5%
2008-2009
( )(2008 8 )
22%
26%
2002 200711.3% 2011
1 2013 43.5%
12.4% 5.5%( 1.1)
2013
20132%
20136.2% 3
( )
/2012
1-2% 20124% (
)30%
6%
(7%)(6%) (5%) (2%)
2%( 2013) 2012 7
20124.3%
20126.7%
5.4%
50%
( 14.2%)(12.3%)
20121.5%
2011 7.1% 3.2%
16% 50%
1.1
2004 1 2013 4( 2005 100)
80
100
120
140
160
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201380
100
120
140
160
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2013
( 2013 )
3.
2012 20132011
( 1.2)
2003-2008( 1.3)
2012
2012/2013 2013/14
( 2013 )
2013( )
2012 7 2013 6 // 105.5
99 111
1.2
2002 1 2013 5
( 2002 100)
:
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
( )
0
100
200
300
400
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2013
2013
1.3
2007-2013( )
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013a
2011-2013
2003-2008b
c 13.0 24.0 -16.9 20.4 17.9 -8.4 -3.3 68.6( )c 8.6 19.5 -14.5 21.7 14.1 -5.5 -2.2 63.9
13.3 39.2 -8.5 7.4 17.8 -1.4 -4.3 77.08.6 40.4 -5.4 5.6 16.5 -0.4 -3.3 78.1
10.4 20.2 1.9 17.5 26.8 -21.5 -13.5 77.912.5 15.4 -6.9 27.3 42.9 -25.7 -16.2 96.922.6 32.2 11.9 8.5 -4.9 -19.7 -5.8 42.9
-12.3 27.2 16.5 -1.0 11.4 0.8 -14.2 52.88.5 42.5 -6.0 4.4 15.4 2.0 -2.4 78.2
-31.7 26.9 41.8 17.3 22.2 -17.1 -15.5 121.51.9 2.6 -1.2 27.5 20.0 2.6 1.4 63.4
38.2 34.0 -24.4 13.2 50.1 2.6 -0.5 112.534.3 27.5 -31.4 3.3 35.1 -0.1 0.8 53.99.5 110.7 -15.8 -11.5 5.9 5.1 -2.9 64.0
-0.9 24.6 0.7 3.7 10.8 0.9 -6.2 58.252.9 31.9 -28.4 22.7 27.2 -7.6 -11.4 69.543.0 36.1 -16.6 3.1 20.2 9.4 -6.4 67.412.0 20.5 -17.5 38.3 28.1 -23.0 -5.3 70.34.5 -11.3 -30.0 60.5 14.0 1.4 3.4 22.8
10.2 12.8 -12.2 65.3 47.5 -41.8 2.2 87.211.6 8.3 18.0 1.8 3.8 -3.9 2.0 45.99.5 16.9 -27.0 90.3 32.0 -30.5 -8.4 119.4
19.5 39.3 -20.6 1.8 13.8 -7.4 1.0 28.612.8 6.2 -30.3 41.3 14.7 -14.1 -0.8 54.92.7 -2.5 -35.3 30.5 10.4 -15.8 -4.0 1.1
60.5 387.2 -64.8 1.1 50.3 0.5 -8.2 88.677.4 26.8 -48.7 82.4 15.0 -23.4 10.1 26.665.6 27.3 -26.7 50.4 28.0 -19.2 8.7 125.25.9 -2.3 -26.3 47.0 17.1 -9.9 -3.9 70.2
53.5 -43.3 -30.6 48.9 5.0 -23.4 -5.9 -2.8100.2 -19.0 -17.7 25.0 11.8 -14.2 6.3 60.1
-1.0 -42.2 -11.7 30.5 1.5 -11.2 0.4 5.615.3 25.1 11.6 26.1 27.8 6.4 -6.6 184.6
d 10.7 36.4 -36.3 28.0 31.4 1.0 -2.2 77.3
e 7.5 4.9 -5.6 1.9 10.3 -2.2 .. ..
: ( ):
a 2013 1 5 2012b 2003-2008 2011-2013cde
2013
2012( )
2013(
) (( ) )
2013
2013
2012
2013
2013(2013 )
2013 4 270
2012 2013
( )
2010
( )
1.
( )
2007 7.2% 20135 11% 2009
2010 10% 20137.6% 2007 5%
2013 614.3% 4
2009 5.5% 20135 4.1%
3.5% 5
2007 5.1 2012 5( )
68.8% 66.6% 6
2012 5.17() 1 700
( 1.3)
( )2012
2007 2012 () 1.3
( 1.3)
( )
( )
( )
2013
( )
( 2010)
2010 6
( 20112012 2012 )
1.3
2008-2012
2012
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 200 2010 2011 2012
A.
3 0
2 5
2 0
1 5
1 0
0 5
0 0
0 5
2008 200 2010 2011 2012
B.
( )( 2010
)
1
10
( 2012 ) 7
(2012 )
(2013 )
1.4
1 1.5
0.5 8
9
10
1.4
1.66 -0.361.84 -0.371.51 -0.271.76 -0.421.54 -0.331.48 -0.271.38 -0.291.65 -0.411.64 -0.411.48 -0.311.35 -0.291.59 -0.361.68 -0.311.71 -0.391.32 -0.261.58 -0.36
:( )
: ( )
2013
()
( )
2.
1970 1980
( )
11
( 1.4)12
1.4
1980-2011
( )
:
( )
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011
( )
13
() ( )
( 2012 )
( )
1980
(1.7)
14
( 2008 )
( )( )
( )( )
1971 2011( 1.5)
1970 1990( )
3.5%
15
1990
2001 2008
1980
2013
(2013 )
()
(2013 )
16
( 2013 )
1.5
1971-2011
( )
:
:
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
1 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 1 81 1 83 1 85 1 8 1 8 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 2001 2003 2005 200 200 2011
( )
1980 141990 56 2007 206
1980 120% 2007365%( 2013 14) (
)
1980 5 0002007 12
1980 199525%
2000 28% 2005 38% 2007-2010 50%
100 150%
( 1978 )
( 2005 ) 17
( 1999 2010 )
( )
( )( 2011
)
2013
( )
1980 1990
1970 1980( 1.6)
1980
3%1985
1990
1990
2000
20063% 2007
2008-2009
20092%
2009
( )
( 2013 )
25 2030
1.6
1970-2011( )
:: 2004 2007
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
1 0 1 5 1 80 1 85 1 0 1 5 2000 2005 2010 2011
2013
1. 1990
19901994
1997-19982008
2000-2001 2001-2002
1991-20024.7%
( 1.5)2.6%
19901991-2002
1980
2001
2003-2007
4.5-5 ( 1.5)
2008-2009
( 2012 ) 2010-2012
1991-2002 2003-2007
C.
2013
2011-2012( )
( 1.5) 1990-2005( 1.6)50%
2008-2012( 1.5) 2010
1.5
1991-2013
( )
1991-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 2010 2011 2012 2013
( ) ( ) ( )
2.9 2.9 3.7 3.7 1.7 1.7 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.1
2.6 2.0 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.2 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.0-2.6 -0.1 7.6 0.2 1.8 0.0 4.5 4.5 3.0 2.74.7 0.8 7.0 1.5 5.3 1.4 7.9 5.9 4.6 4.72.9 0.1 5.8 0.1 3.6 0.1 4.9 1.0 5.4 4.06.5 0.5 8.3 0.9 6.8 1.0 9.3 7.0 5.3 5.53.7 0.1 6.9 0.2 4.0 0.1 7.0 7.1 3.2 3.52.9 0.2 4.8 0.3 3.0 0.2 5.9 4.3 3.0 3.12.2 0.0 3.1 0.0 3.4 0.0 3.6 4.3 4.1 2.7
2.6 0.0 8.9 0.0 5.8 0.0 9.2 8.9 1.9 4.82.6 0.1 4.0 0.1 3.3 0.1 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.5
10.1 0.2 11.6 0.5 9.4 0.6 10.4 9.3 7.8 7.65.9 0.1 8.6 0.1 7.2 0.1 11.2 7.7 3.8 5.23.6 0.0 5.5 0.0 5.9 0.0 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.73.1 0.1 3.6 0.1 1.6 0.0 5.5 4.0 3.9 2.86.1 0.1 4.4 0.1 3.1 0.1 6.3 3.7 2.0 1.6
-2.7 -0.1 7.4 0.1 1.5 0.0 4.5 4.3 3.4 2.52.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 4.4 0.0 5.1 7.1 5.9 4.02.3 0.0 4.9 0.0 2.1 0.0 3.1 3.5 2.5 1.73.3 0.0 7.3 0.1 3.5 0.0 9.2 8.8 2.2 3.3
: 1.1:2013
197070% 1990
80%( 1.6)
201260% 1970
2005 712 201235%
201247.3%
( 1.6)
18
50%
1.6
1970-2012
a b
1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 2012 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 2012
69.5 69.9 78.8 78.3 77.0 73.8 69.6 63.7 60.4 63.4 62.3 60.9 56.7 54.2 50.0 48.113.7 8.5 3.9 1.9 1.2 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.9 7.9 4.3 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.616.8 21.6 17.3 19.8 21.7 23.8 27.1 33.0 35.8 28.7 33.4 35.2 38.8 41.1 45.4 47.32.7 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.07.5 8.3 8.1 10.1 11.0 12.8 14.8 18.9 21.3 13.6 17.8 19.7 23.2 25.3 29.0 30.71.3 3.2 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.95.3 6.4 4.9 6.1 6.6 5.9 6.7 8.0 8.0 8.6 9.2 8.9 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.70.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.91.1 1.6 1.7 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.82.8 2.6 1.8 2.5 3.7 5.0 6.2 9.4 11.3 3.5 5.6 7.1 9.4 11.0 13.6 14.91.9 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.6 5.4 5.60.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.51.3 1.9 1.3 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.10.3 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.3 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.8 5.3 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.00.2 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.10.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.70.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4
: 2013 41.1
a b 2005
2013
1.7
1981-2011
1981–1990
1991–2002
2003–2007
2008–2011
1981–1990
1991–2002
2003–2007
2008–2011
1981–1990
1991–2002
2003–2007
2008–2011
1981–1990
1991–2002
2003–2007
2008–2011
GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.2 2.6 2.6 -0.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.1 3.8 5.9 3.8HH 60.7 61.1 62.1 62.7 3.2 2.8 2.5 0.3 58.7 59.5 58.8 58.8 3.1 3.8 5.5 3.6Gov 20.7 19.0 18.3 19.0 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 16.3 14.3 13.3 13.7 3.1 2.6 4.8 5.0Inv 18.9 20.0 20.7 18.5 4.2 3.2 4.1 -4.0 23.0 23.4 23.6 25.3 0.7 3.4 9.1 3.9Exp 13.3 19.3 24.3 26.5 4.9 6.5 6.5 0.8 23.4 32.1 41.5 42.8 3.1 7.2 10.3 3.6Imp 13.2 19.2 25.5 26.8 5.7 6.9 6.6 0.1 20.5 28.9 37.4 41.1 2.8 6.9 12.0 4.1
GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.6 4.7 7.0 5.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.7 2.9 4.9 2.8HH 58.3 57.3 54.6 52.9 3.7 4.4 5.9 4.5 59.9 62.5 63.2 64.7 1.6 3.0 5.2 3.3Gov 16.1 14.4 13.5 13.6 3.7 3.6 5.9 5.7 17.5 15.5 14.5 14.5 1.8 1.9 3.4 3.7Inv 24.3 25.7 27.5 30.8 1.6 4.8 10.4 7.4 21.2 21.3 20.9 22.5 -2.1 3.9 7.7 2.3Exp 22.2 30.3 40.4 42.0 3.5 8.2 12.0 5.9 11.9 18.8 24.5 23.9 4.7 7.6 7.8 1.7Imp 19.6 27.2 35.9 39.6 3.2 7.7 13.1 7.0 10.3 18.1 23.2 26.7 0.1 8.4 11.2 4.4
GDP … 100.0 100.0 100.0 … -3.0 7.6 1.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.9 2.9 5.8 3.5HH … 47.0 53.2 60.8 … -1.3 10.7 3.3 61.7 62.4 62.1 62.8 1.9 3.2 5.1 4.3Gov … 20.2 16.7 15.2 … -1.8 2.7 0.8 16.0 15.6 14.7 16.0 2.7 1.6 6.5 5.9Inv … 27.1 23.1 24.0 … -12.2 14.9 -2.1 21.4 18.0 19.6 22.3 -4.5 3.2 9.3 4.5Exp … 30.8 38.6 37.0 … 1.1 8.4 0.8 29.3 33.7 36.6 35.7 1.8 4.1 8.6 0.5Imp … 23.3 31.2 35.5 … -2.7 15.5 0.9 27.3 27.1 31.9 36.3 -2.4 4.7 10.6 4.1
GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.6 3.5 2.8 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.4 3.7 6.9 3.7HH 66.8 67.7 70.0 70.9 3.8 3.8 3.0 0.3 49.8 51.1 52.7 53.1 3.6 3.5 7.9 2.5Gov 20.4 17.1 15.8 16.5 3.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 17.1 15.1 15.0 16.0 4.6 2.1 7.0 4.7Inv 15.4 17.7 19.4 15.7 4.1 6.6 3.7 -5.1 16.5 16.8 20.8 24.2 -0.2 3.9 15.1 4.1Exp 6.5 10.0 11.1 13.1 6.0 6.0 7.2 2.6 42.5 40.5 45.6 44.7 -3.4 5.3 9.5 2.2Imp 7.9 12.2 16.3 16.2 7.9 8.9 6.4 -0.5 26.3 23.8 34.1 39.3 1.3 4.1 16.9 2.1
GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.5 2.3 2.6 -0.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.7 5.1 8.1 6.4HH 57.7 57.8 57.6 57.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 0.0 65.5 61.2 58.3 57.3 4.1 4.7 7.2 5.6Gov 22.4 21.2 20.4 21.1 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.3 13.6 12.2 10.9 11.3 3.0 4.7 5.9 9.0Inv 18.9 19.7 20.8 19.6 3.4 2.8 4.7 -4.2 30.3 26.8 32.1 35.8 2.7 4.1 14.2 7.4Exp 19.4 28.8 37.9 41.0 4.5 6.8 6.5 0.8 11.3 15.9 21.1 23.0 6.0 7.0 13.6 8.6Imp 18.5 27.4 36.7 39.2 5.0 6.6 6.8 0.1 15.9 16.0 22.5 27.1 0.9 6.0 17.1 9.0
GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.6 0.9 1.8 -0.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 5.1 4.6 6.2 4.5HH 58.1 57.8 57.6 58.6 4.0 1.3 1.1 0.4 56.5 56.0 56.8 55.9 4.7 5.0 5.4 4.3Gov 15.4 16.4 18.3 19.0 3.6 3.0 1.0 1.7 11.7 10.0 10.2 10.9 3.7 4.2 5.8 6.4Inv 27.0 26.6 22.5 19.8 6.1 -1.1 1.2 -4.7 31.4 31.0 24.0 25.0 4.8 0.5 6.9 5.4Exp 8.1 9.8 14.5 15.7 4.9 3.9 9.6 -1.5 39.2 62.4 82.1 83.7 7.4 8.9 11.3 3.6Imp 7.6 10.2 12.8 13.0 5.9 4.0 4.8 -0.7 37.5 57.9 73.1 75.3 6.6 7.7 11.7 3.5
GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.3 10.1 11.6 9.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.7 5.4 4.9 3.3HH 53.5 45.2 38.9 35.9 11.8 8.7 8.0 8.8 57.6 59.1 55.4 53.1 8.0 5.3 3.2 2.3Gov 14.5 14.7 14.0 13.2 11.8 10.0 9.8 7.9 16.9 14.5 12.8 12.7 6.2 3.6 3.2 3.3Inv 38.0 38.3 41.7 46.4 7.9 10.6 13.4 13.4 26.8 30.5 26.5 23.1 10.4 3.7 3.8 0.4Exp 9.7 20.3 36.0 39.9 13.6 18.3 20.0 13.7 31.5 45.5 65.5 74.0 12.7 9.2 11.8 5.3Imp 9.4 17.5 30.4 35.3 14.3 17.1 18.6 18.0 32.4 49.3 61.0 63.8 12.0 7.8 9.6 3.7
:: 2005 2005
100
()
1980 2003-2007
( 1.7) 20032007
2008-2011
2009 ) 19
2008-2011 () 8
46%1980 50%
2008-2011 36%
1981 2011
( 1.7)(
) 13%27% 20% 40%
( 2008
)
1981-1990 2008-201130
2003 2007 () 6%
( )
2000(
)2003
2008
2.
/
()( )
2013
1.7
2004-2012( )
:
: ( )( 40% 50%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012
25
20
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
25
20
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
25
20
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
( 1.7)2008-2009
( 2010 )
1990 30%2012 45%
2008 ( 1.8)
2010
2009 ( )
1.8
1995-2012
1995 11.9 0.3 16.1 28.30.3 0.6 1.1 2.1
16.6 1.1 52.1 69.728.8 2.0 69.2 100.0
2000 13.1 0.2 18.8 32.10.4 0.5 1.4 2.4
15.0 0.8 49.8 65.528.5 1.5 70.1 100.0
2005 16.7 0.5 19.1 36.30.6 0.7 2.1 3.5
13.6 1.4 45.3 60.331.0 2.5 66.5 100.0
2008 19.8 0.8 18.3 38.90.9 0.9 2.8 4.6
13.6 1.9 40.9 56.534.3 3.7 62.0 100.0
2010 23.2 0.7 18.4 42.30.9 0.7 2.1 3.7
15.3 1.5 37.2 54.039.4 2.9 57.7 100.0
2012 25.3 0.8 18.5 44.70.9 0.8 2.4 4.1
15.0 1.7 34.6 51.241.2 3.3 55.5 100.0
:: 100
2013
1.9
1995-2012( )
1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 20121996-2002
2003-2007
2008-2012
7.8 8.1 7.9 9.0 10.2 10.1 5.8 29.1 14.49.0 9.4 9.2 11.1 13.3 13.5 5.5 28.6 14.85.2 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 7.2 30.7 12.6
76.5 76.7 77.1 75.3 73.7 74.4 5.4 23.5 12.180.8 81.7 82.3 80.5 78.9 78.8 5.4 21.3 10.666.2 66.2 66.4 65.4 63.7 66.2 5.4 29.3 13.5
58.7 55.9 53.3 49.4 46.5 45.8 4.5 20.6 11.268.8 70.0 68.0 64.2 60.9 60.3 5.4 20.0 9.935.4 27.2 25.2 23.1 22.5 23.0 1.4 24.3 14.0
10.6 10.9 15.9 17.4 17.0 18.2 9.1 30.1 13.112.6 13.8 21.5 24.8 25.0 27.8 9.9 31.3 13.1
5.9 4.9 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.5 5.0 20.8 13.8
13.2 14.6 18.9 17.5 17.9 17.5 8.3 24.9 13.315.1 17.0 22.8 21.2 21.4 19.6 9.0 23.1 10.19.2 10.0 11.6 11.1 12.5 12.9 5.6 32.3 17.9
7.7 7.7 6.3 6.2 5.2 5.0 2.8 25.2 6.86.1 5.9 5.3 5.4 4.8 4.9 1.9 26.8 7.7
11.6 11.7 8.7 7.9 6.1 5.6 4.0 23.2 5.7
3.2 2.3 3.5 3.8 4.8 5.1 2.7 30.6 19.61.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 24.3 5.87.3 5.3 8.0 8.7 11.7 11.7 3.9 32.7 22.4
0.4 0.5 1.2 1.4 2.2 2.3 11.7 38.0 25.40.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 20.7 20.7 13.31.3 1.2 3.0 3.6 5.6 5.5 9.8 42.7 26.8
2.3 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.1 18.9 10.21.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 13.1 8.73.7 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 3.0 22.7 10.7
2.4 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.3 3.8 7.9 32.3 12.60.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.8 18.0 12.35.7 8.0 8.5 9.6 10.3 8.5 9.9 35.3 12.3
0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.1 23.2 51.0 8.40.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8 23.3 21.60.5 1.6 3.3 3.9 4.6 2.6 27.4 53.3 7.8
::
(
) ( 2005)
10%( 1.9)40%60%
2000
2005( 1.9)
20
2008 ( 1.8)
1995-2012
2013 62013
3.
1970
2013
()
( )
() ( 2009
) 1.92000
2002 2008
2006 20082009 2011
2003 2008
1.8
1995-2012( 1995 100)
:
21 50%
()
( )
( 2011 20122012 )
1.9
1980-2012( )
::
(1995 1000)
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
1 80 1 82 1 84 1 86 1 88 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2013
1
2012
22012
40% 150 / 2011250 /
3
6.2%2012
20131 42013 5 6
63.1% 5 1 %
5 0.3% 60.7% 2013 1 4
17.4%
(2013 5 6 )
()
( )
(2013 7 1 )
4 // . . / . / . 15.
5 // . . . / // / .
6 2007 42012 4 500
2007 12 2012 12350 2007 12
2013 5 150
1998 2012520 //
. . . . / / / // /
// . ./ . / . 15.
// . . . / / / /.
7
()
( 0.6)
( 2012 81)
8( )
( )
9
1.360%
35%5%
59%
2011
10
()
11( )
12
( 2010 )2000 2007
( 2012 )
( 2012 2012)
2000 ( 20122012 )
13 (2012 )
169
7
4
4(2012 )
2013
(
)
(2012)
14 (1982 ) 19301930
10%
15 3.6%60%
3%3%
16( )
( 2004 ) (2012 )
1972-2005 140
( 1943)
17
()
2005 2(
// . . / / /2005// . )
18 ()
19 (2010 .4)55
10%2012
(2013 )2016
2013 1192015
132
20 2002 ( )
21
(2012). . 44 .
(2012). . . 18006 .
(2004). 47(6) 5 45.
(2005).
8 . (2012). - - .
. 208 . (2013).
. (2012).
0(1) 24 36. (2010). -
2.0. . 3
.
I 152(3) 1 26.
. 40(9) 1750 1761.
(2012). . .
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(1943). . 5(14) 322 331.
(1978). .
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. .
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2013
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37
2030
1
2
201338
1
3
39
1 1
1 2
201340
1 1
1995-2030 /
200
2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20304
2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20308
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20304
2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20304
6
8
10
12
14
16
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302
4
6
8
10
12
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
41
1 2
1995-2030 /
50
55
60
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203055
60
65
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203050
55
60
65
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
35
40
45
50
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203045
50
55
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203035
40
45
50
55
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
45
50
55
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203045
50
55
60
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203035
40
45
50
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
201342
1 1
1 2
1 3
1 3
1 2
1 1 1 2
43
1 1
2007-2030 /
2007–2012
2013–2018
2019–2024
2025–2030
2007–2012
2013–2018
2019–2024
2025–2030
2013–2018
2019–2024
2025–2030
2 3 1 2 3 0 3 2 6 3 1 3 84 5 8 6 2 3 5 5 8 6 4 36 6 85 101 83 6 4 1 4 4 2 4 0 4 1 6 42 2 52 5
1 0 1 1 6 1 6 2 2 1 2 4 2 82 3 3 3 6 3 2 4 4 2 18 5 1 81 2 0 2 3 2 1 3 3 4 2 0 5 2 5 3
4 4 1 8 2 3 2 4 1 5 1 0 2 63 8 5 1 5 3 2 5 5 5 0 2 2 2 82 5 3 5 3 8 2 0 3 1 4 0 0 3 1 0 1 4
5 2 3 5 3 0 3 0 0 4 4 2 3 36 2 1 6 6 4 8 0 4 5 14 22 54 5 4 8 5 2 5 1 5 5 5 2 5 8 5 13 2
4 0 3 0 2 2 5 0 1 2 2 3 24 1 5 4 5 2 1 5 5 6 2 3 4 6 5 63 3 3 3 1 5 3 3 4 2 1 3 6 3 4
4 3 3 2 2 6 2 6 6 6 3 0 0 2 05 6 6 1 5 3 5 6 3 1 5 4 8 6 34 4 4 3 4 2 3 1 3 2 4 2 0 8 2 6 3 5
5 1 3 3 0 2 6 5 5 4 1 6 2 45 3 6 2 6 5 4 8 6 8 6 6 2 15 4 1 34 3 4 1 4 2 5 2 3 5 4 1 3 8 12 0
8 8 8 1 6 1 11 8 3 4 5 1 5 312 3 11 1 5 3 5 5 6 5 8 0 12 1 110 8 3 8 3 1 4 5 5 4 3 6 3
8 5 2 4 8 4 8 4 2 2 2 2 38 1 10 3 4 8 10 0 5 0 11 8 15 26 5 2 3 2 5 1 6 5 3 0 2 8 8
201344
1 2
2007-2030 /
2007–2012
2013–2018
2019–2024
2025–2030
2007–2012
2013–2018
2019–2024
2025–2030
2013–2018
2019–2024
2025–2030
2025–2030
世界 3 6 2 1 2 3 2 8 3 3 6 3 2 3 04 0 5 6 2 2 1 13 1 3 4 3 3 5 2 2 4
1 6 0 5 0 0 8 5 6 4 3 3 0 0 5 0 4 1 3 2 41 2 3 0 3 5 3 2 5 2 5 0 4 0 5 0 80 6 0 1 3 4 8 3 2 1 0 3 0 5 0
3 1 2 0 1 6 1 1 2 0 6 0 4 0 2 5 0 2 0 1 43 0 4 5 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 6 0 52 5 3 5 3 8 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 3 0 5
2 1 6 1 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 5 1 1 1 6 4 3 6 4 5 82 6 8 6 2 8 1 0 1 1 2 3 1 5 0 22 2 4 2 5 0 3 2 4 2 0 3 6 4 6 4 0
5 8 2 2 1 8 2 3 2 4 3 6 3 2 2 6 2 3 5 3 8 3 44 1 5 5 6 0 3 0 2 4 2 5 2 5 0 0 13 1 3 4 0 3 5 3 4 3 4 3 1 2 6 2 0
5 0 3 0 1 8 2 8 4 0 5 0 0 1 2 4 0 8 2 03 8 5 5 5 0 0 0 4 3 1 5 0 83 3 3 4 5 0 5 1 0 1 0 3 3 0 8 0 8
5 5 3 3 2 4 2 8 2 8 2 3 2 3 0 1 6 4 2 4 5 3 38 5 1 6 8 2 8 2 8 2 2 2 0 5 0 06 2 4 8 4 3 0 3 6 3 8 3 3 6 2
0 1 3 6 6 1 0 0 2 1 3 2 5 4 8 6 8 8 4 8 312 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 6 1 510 4 8 8 8 0 3 1 0 1 5 4 6 3 3 6
4 4 4 8 3 6 10 0 10 1 6 0 4 8 2 14 10 2 10 3 6 2 3 1 3 0 4 5 1 8 1 14 6 6 6 4 2 2 2
45
1 3
1980-2030
200 200
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
1 80 1 85 1 0 1 5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
1 80 1 85 1 0 1 5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
201346
1
2010
3
2010
2 2030
3
47
200200
201348
200 200
2000
49
200 200
1
200 200
2 1 1
201350
2
2 2
2002 200200 200
1 2 1 3
2 1
2008-2009
200
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5
文莱达鲁萨兰国
巴林
伊拉克
加蓬
沙特阿拉伯
特立尼达和多巴哥
科威特
阿曼
卡塔尔
阿尔及利亚
新加坡
香港 中国
马来西亚
越南
中国台湾省
柬埔寨
泰国
墨西哥
中国
突尼斯
0 0
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5
51
2 32000
2000
2
2010 2011
200
2000 2 3
2012
2011
2000
2 2
18 5-2009
1 0 1 100
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1865 18 0 1 15 1 40 1 65 1 0 2000
50
100
150
200
250
300
1865 18 0 1 15 1 40 1 65 1 0 200
201352
3
2002011
200200
200
2 3
2000-20122000 100
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201260
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
53
2003200 200
1 0
2002 2011 2012
2002010 2012
2012 3
0 2 1
2000
20123
0
2 12002 2012
20112012
2012
2 1 2000
201354
2 1
2002-2012
2002 2012
3 2 105 2 101 8 54 6 13 0 4 4 8 5223 0 12 6 0 2 32 4 88 3 23 4 35 88 4 1 2 5 1 14 6 4 8 22 0 48 024 4 31 4 21 4 3 1 13 6 6 6 666 4 40 8 50 4 42 48 2 24 5 3 626 6 31 3 2 38 34 4 0 5 1 86 1 18 0 61 2 1 14 2 5 3 15 0
16 1 4 42 6 14 2 4 4 2 13 011 60 8 10 8 3 8 2 2 6 12 36 5
5 4 33 36 3 25 2 18 8 8 1 13 5
2002 2012
81 1 18 4 1 8 2 8 0 3 4 100113 4 6 1 4 8 4 34 5 100132 3 1 0 0 6 0 0 3 2 100
4 135 4 6 5 2 5 5 0 101 2 10033 10 4 10 0 14 2 3 2 28 5 1006 8 10 3 1 5 11 2 8 3 1 0 10013 6 64 6 1 6 2 5 0 3 1 4 10022 6 40 23 4 6 0 2 4 5 1005 6 13 3 2 3 34 3 4 2 13 6 10048 2 53 1 1 16 2 6 33 4 100
2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012
16 2 44 8 13 15 8 1 4 1 6 4 0 3 5 4 4 2 2 60 2 32 318 2 43 3 1 8 16 4 1 0 1 2 5 2 5 1 3 0 4 2 52 2 8
1 4 1 8 13 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 3 3 0 1 64 34 12 33 6 41 6 4 8 2 2 1 8 4 3 6 2 8 14 4 4 320 1 23 10 1 10 2 8 5 13 2 13 5 2 6 2 8 46 1 41 146 5 50 0 5 8 6 5 0 3 0 5 5 1 6 0 4 3 4 3 32 033 4 30 8 53 55 3 4 3 6 1 4 2 3 0 3 0 3 3 3 51 5 18 0 2 5 2 1 2 1 5 2 5 3 12 11 1 2 2 418 5 2 5 8 0 4 0 1 2 33 1 33 4 0 6 1 5 3 1 25 0
6 8 11 21 1 24 3 4 4 0 8 6 4 5 1 55 2 44
2013 2013
55
2000
2012
12012
2020
1 20122012 2020 1 2 11
222 3
200
2012 11 0
2000 2010
2012
2 1
2010
2002 20102 3
201356
3 2012
2013
200
2012
2012
2012
102012
2012
57
20122000 3 2010
2 201 20201
2001 2010 20200 2012 2012 2030
200 100 00
2012
2012
2000 3 2010 22020 1
3 3 1 3 1
200
20101 0
2010 20 2012
2 1
2002 2012
3 1 2013
2011
20122012 0
30
32002 12
201358
－
2013 2013
2000
2010 2011
2013 200220 2012 21
2013
20202012
20
2010 2
2011
1 0 1 02 2 1 0 2011
1 3 20121 0
59
－ 2013
2012200
2012 10
2011 2012
201
2012
2013
20222
112
2003 20122 1 2013 2022 1
2013
2000
20122012
201360
20122012
2013 2013
200
200
2010 2010
2012
200 200
2013
200 200
11
2010
10
0 1
2000 200
0
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1 0
3 000
200
2 1 200
2 200
61
12
2
1 2002012
0
1 0 2012
13
200 200
2010 2011200
2002 20012 23
200 201110
2
1999 2012
22012 0 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
，
：
：
20122000 2002 200 200 200 2010
201362
2
1995-2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
63
2 1
1
1
1 3
2002200
200 200
2002 103 1
1
1
1 200
1 33
201364
2 1
1930a
1 30
1 0
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2013
贸发
会议
联 合 国
顺应世界经济
不断变化的格局
与时俱进
贸易和发展报告2013
联合国贸易和发展会议
贸发会议
联 合 国
Printed at United Nations, Geneva1357684 (C)–July 2014–154
UNCTAD/TDR/2013
ISSN 0251-8015
年贸
易和
发展
报告
