2

. . ( ) 2,3,5,6,7,9 10.

.

, .

.

.

.

2:

2.1

: (i) , (ii) , (iii) , (iv) , (v) , (vi) (vii) . , .

(short term) (long term). 1 2 . , . , .

(target variables). .

3

(price level), (consumer price index), (GDP deflator) ..

, .

2.2

(full employment) , , , . , . ; ; ; .

.

(Ut) (Et):

t ttU L E= (2.1) (ut)

:

t t tt

t t

UL Eu L L

= =

(2.2)

14 , , , .

() () . , ( ) , (Et) (Ut):

4

t tUE = (2.3) (2.1), (2.2) (2.3)

:

( ) ( ) nt t tt t t t tU U U U uE L L

= = = + =

+ (2.4)

: , (0,1) :

2 0( )n

tu

=

+ (2.5.1) &

2 0( )n

tu

=

+ (2.5.2)

(2.4) (natural rate of unemployment), , .

- . , .

(n

te ) :

1n nt te u

= =

+ (2.6)

: 2 0( )

n

te

=

+

, (NLF). -2.1 :

5

1

4

2

5

3

6

-2.1: .

1. .

2. .

3. .

4. .

5. .

6. .

(1) (2) (4) (5) . (t):

t= (1)+(2)-[(4)+(3)] (2.7)

(1)+(6) (3)+(4):

Ut= (1)+(6)-[(3)+(4)] (2.8)

t tU

(i) ,(ii) ,(iii) (iv) . .

E

U NFL

6

.

(i)

(frictional unemployment) .

, . .

(ii)

(seasonal unemployment) . , . , . , , .

(iii)

() (*). , (t) .

-2.2. t1

( 1max

tY ). t2

( 2min

tY ). (depression). , (recovery), t3

( 3max

tY 1max

tY>

), ,

(*

t tY Y< ).

( n

t tu u< )

(*

t tY Y> ).

n

t tu u & *

t tY Y , n

t tu u

*

t tY Y . Arthur Okun , ,

9

(n

t tu u )

(*

t tY Y ) : *

*( )nt t t t

t

Y Yu u

Y

=

(2.9)

,

1%. =0.4 n

t tu u =1% *

*0.4%t t

t

Y YY

= ,

1%, 0.4%. (2.9) -2.3.

*

*

t t

t

Y YY

&n

t tu u .

Okun :

*y tyg g u=

(2.10)

:

1

1

( )t ty

t

Y YgY

=

: .

*

* *

1*

1

( )t ty

t

Y YgY

=

: .

1t t tu u u = : .

10

*t

t

YY

1

0

*1 ( )nt t t

t

Yu u

Y=

n

t tu u

-2.3

yg

*yg

0

* 1( )y t tyg g u u =

tu

-2.4

(2.10)

( 1t tu u = 0tu = ),

(growth) (*y y

g g=).

1% ( 1%tu = )

( yg

)

(*y

g) %.

* 4%yg = , =0.5 1%tu = *4% 0.5% 3,5%y tyg g u= = = .

(2.10) -2.4 ,

11

yg

tu .

: Phillips

, n

tu *

tY ,

(n

t tu u )

(e

t t ).

(n

t tu u> , . .

[wages ( tW )] n

t tu u , :

( )nW t tg u u= (2.11) :

>0:

1

1 1

t t tW

t t

W W WgW W

= =

: .

(2.11) 1958 A.W. Phillips

( tu ) .

(LtS )

. :

L t tt

t t

W LSY P

= (2.12)

tW : , tL :

(Labor) , tY : tP : (prices).

(2.12)

(t) : ln ln ln lnLt t t tS W Y P=

(ln ) (ln ) (ln ) (ln )Lt t t td S d W d Y d Pdt dt dt dt

= 1 1 1 1Lt t t t

Lt t t t

dS dW dY dPS dt W dt Y dt P dt

=

12

1 1 1 1L Lt t t t t t t t

Lt t t t

S S W W Y Y P PS W Y P

+ + + + = 1 1 1 11 1 1 1

L Lt t t t t t t t

Lt t t t

S S W W Y Y P PS W Y P

=

1 1 1 1

Lt t t t

Lt t t t

S W Y PS W Y P

= (2.13)

( 10

Lt

Lt

SS

=), (2.13) 2:

W Y tg g= + (2.14)

:

1

tW

t

WgW

=

:

1

tY

t

YgY

=

:

1

tt

t

PP

=

: , .

( 0Yg = ), (2.11) (2.14) :

( )nt t tu u = (2.15) (2.15) Phillips

( tu ) (0t

tu

= ),

(n

t tu u< ) (2.16),

(e

t t > ). 2

(*

t tY Y< ),

(n

t tu u> ) (2.16),

(e

t t

14

(

St t

t t

M MP P

=) (

*kY ): *

t tM kY P= , 0k > (2.19)

(2.19) :

*

1 1t tM kY P = (2.20)

(2.19) (2.20) :

* *( )t t t tM kY P M kY P= = *t tM kY P = *

*

1 1

t t

t t

M kY PM kY P

=

1 1

t tt t

t t

M PM P

= =

(2.21)

:

1

1

t tt

t

M MM

=

:

1

1

t tt

t

P PP

=

: ().

% . , , . , 1=3%, (1=1=3%). t=2 1=3% 2=8%, t2 8% (2=2=8%).

, t=1

, 1=1= 1e =3%

u1=un=5%.

Phillips LPC 3 Phillips SPC1. . LPC , SPC1 4

15

1e =3% =5/2 ( -2.5).

t

8

3

0

3 5 6 8 ut

LPC

SPC1 SPC2

A B

A

, . (static or naive expectations) :

1e

t t = (2.22)

t=1 (5,3) Phillips SPC1, t=2 1=3% 2=8% . (2.22)

2 1 3%e = = . 2 2 8% 3% 5% 0

e = = >

( 2nu u )

. (2.16) :

2 2 2 25( ) 5 ( )2

e n

nu u u u = = 5%

2 22 0 3%nu

nu u u=

= < =

, , 5 SPC, (5,3) (3,8). , . , (3,8) (5,8). Phillips SPC2,

8%e = , LPC. ,

16

( ), .

(rational expectations). :

1( )et t t tE = = (2.23) ,

t=1 [1(2)=2=8%]. (5,3) (5,8).

: 1 Phillips, . 2 ( ), (money neutrality).

:

, : 1 1 1( )e e e

t t t t = , 0

17

:

i) , .

ii) , , .

iii) , . , ( ). , , .

iv) 7, , .

v) , . (St=It=t) .

vi) , .

. () (). (GDP deflator) .

, . 1 (t =Y

*), 2 , , , , , , 3

18

.

, , (Mt/Pt) (VtYt=kYt) . , t =Y

* . (Mt) (Pt). (t) (t).

, . :

1

1

t t

t

M MM

=

t 0 (1 )t

tM M = + (2.25)

0: t=0

:

1

1

t t

t

P PP

=

t 0 (1 )t

tP P = + (2.26)

P0: t=0.

(2.25) (2.26) :

(2.25)0 0

(2.26) 0 0

(1 ) 1(1 ) 1

ttt t

tt t

M M M MP P P P

+ + = + +

= (2.27)

M0/P0: t=0.

( 1,1) (2.28) :

0

1 1 (1 ) ( )1 1 ( )

j

j

+

=

+ += = + =

+ 0 1

2(1 )[( ) ( ) ( ) ]j

j

+

=

+ + + =

2(1 )[(1 ) ( ) ]j

j

+

=

= + + 2

1 1 (1 ) ( )1

j

j

+

=

+= + + +

+ (2.28)

&, . , (0,0.1) 8 0 ( ) 0 2j j , (2.27) (2.28) :

19

0

20

[1 (1 ) ( ) ]j ttjt

M MP P

+

=

= + + + 00

(1 )ttrm

t

M M gP P

+ (2.29)

grm=-: .

(2.29) , , , :

0 0rmg = = = (2.30)

. Fisher .

) Fisher

:

1

1

(1 )et ttet t

K Kr

P P

= + (2.31)

t-1: t-1 ( ),

Pt-1: ( ) ( ), e

tr : , t-1/Pt-1:

t-1 & /e

t tK P : t .

, t :

1(1 )t t tK i K = + (2.32)

ti : .

1t , , (t)

1t 9:

1(1 )e et t tP P = + (2.33)

20

e

t :

(2.32)(2.33) (2.31) :

(2.32)1 1

(2.33) 1 1

(1 ) 12.31 (1 ) 1(1 ) 1e et t t t

t te et t t t

i K K ir r

P P

+ += + + =

+ + (2.34)

e

tr , ( 1,1)e

t

(1 )e

t+ :

1 (1 )(1 ) 1 1e e e e e e e et t t t t t t t t t ti r i r r i r + = + + + = + + + = + (2.35) (2.35) Fisher (Fishers identity) , , (ex ante) .

( & )e e

t t t tr r = = Fisher :

t t ti r = + (2.36)

)

, , (seignorage) . .

, , . (t) , (2.25) :

(2.30)

11

tt t

t

= =

(2.37) (Pt) :

1t t

t tP P

=

(2.38.1)

21

1

1

t t

t tP P

(2.38.2)

(2.38.1) [(2.38.2)] (inflation tax) (t/Pt) , (), , . , .

: ) ) . (i) (ii) . .

(i)

(demand-pull inflation) , , (*).

-2.6 . ,

- (*, 1i ) , IS1 LM1, 1. (AS) (AD1), 1, - (*,P1).

22

Y* Y2 Yt

it

i3

i2

i1

Y* Y2 Yt Pt

P3

P1

LM2(M/P3)

LM1(M/P1)

IS1 IS2

E3

E1

E2

AD1

AD2

AS

A3

A1 A2

. , 12 IS1 IS2 AD1 AD2.

P1 , AD1 , ( ) 12(=

*2). , AD2 2

3. ( M ), P1 P3

23

( 1

MP 3

MP ) LM1

LM2, .

, . . () , , .

/ . , AD . , .

(ii)

(cost-push inflation) , , , .

(profit-push inflation), , , .

(wage-push inflation) , .

( ), . , , . ( ) ,

24

. , , .

. :

t t t t t t tPQ W L i K = (2.39) : , P: ,

W: (L) i: .

(2.39) (Q) :

t t t t tt t t t t

t t t t t

L K W iP W i A PQ Q Q APL APK

= = (2.40)

=/Q: ( ), PL=Q/L: (average product of labor) APK=Q/K: (average product of capital).

(2.40) 13:

2( ) ( ) ( )

( )t t t t t t

t

d A dP APL d W W d APLdt dt APL dt

= ( ) ( ) ( )1 1t t t t t

t t t

d dP W d APL d Wdt dt APL APL dt APL dt

= +

( ) ( )1[ ]t t t tAPLt t

d A dP W d Wgdt dt APL W dt

= +

( ) ( )t t t APL Wt

d A dP W g gdt dt APL

= + (2.41)

,

( W APLg g ) ,

( 0tdP dt = ) 14.

( W APLg g ),

15 ( )t t W APL

t

W P g gAPL

.

25

. . -.

-. , , . , . , ...

(iii)

() , () , , , () () , , ( ) .

, , . .

2.4

[Balance of Payments (BP)] , . , , . , . .

- (double entry accounting).

26

(credit entry), (debit entry). . . , , 16 (countertrade).

, , . .

:

(i) : [Trade Balance (TB)] ( Xg) (Mg), 17:

TB Xg Mg= (2.42)

f.o.b (free on board), , c.i.f (cost insurance freight), .

(ii) , : , [Balance on goods, services & incomes (BIGS)] () , () , , , , ( ), , () , , , , .

:

( ) ( )S S i iBIGS TB X M X M= + + (2.43) s: Exports of services, Ms: Imports of services, Xi: Exports of incomes & Mi: Imports of incomes.

, [Net Exports (NX)] :

Y C I G NX= + + + (2.44)

27

: (real GDP), C: (consumption), I: (Investments), G: (Government Expenditures).

(2.44) :

( ) ( )NX Y C G I NX Y C T T G I= = + p GNX S S I= + NX S I BIGS= = (2.45)

pS Y C T=

: (private savings), GS T G= : (government savings) P GS S S= + : .

(2.45) () , S>I (S0) [ (BIGS=NXI (S0) [ (CA

28

Capital Accounts (KA)] (capital inflows) () (capital outflows) (), :

K KKA X M= (2.50)

, , . , .

, ( k>Mk >0) , (

29

, , . ($). (. ) (. ) , , (), () .

(i) (spot foreign exchange market) (ii) (forward exchange market)

[spot exchange rate (lt)]. . (. 1$ = 0,756) [. 1 =(1/0,756) = 1,323$]. . , . (et) (et) .

. . [forward exchange rate (ft) . (lt) [Purchasing Parity Power theory (PPP)]. ' (Pt) (Pt

f) :

(2.54)ft t te P P= , 100$ . 100. - 1 (lt=1/$) . 100

30

.. ; ' . lt=1/$ Pt

f=100$ ltPt

f=1/$x100$=100. . ( ) . (2.54) (lt) . (2.54)

_ _1 1 1

1 1 1

1 1 1 1

ln ln ln(ln ) (ln ) (ln ) 1 1 1

(2.5

t f ft t t t t

f ft t t t t t

ft t t

f f t t t t t t

ft t t

f fft t t t t t t

t tft t t t

e P P l P Pd l d P d P de dP dP

dt dt dt l dt P dt P dte e P P P P

e P P

e e P P P P le P P l

+ + +

= + =

+ = + =

+ =

+ = = 5)

(lt/lt-1) 1 (t) (t

f). (t

f=0) (2.55) :

1

(2.56)t tt

ll

=

, () 10% 10%. (2.54) :

1(2.57)f

tt

t

PlP

=

(2.57) [real exchange rate(t)] (terms of trade) (et) (Pt

f/Pt), :

31

(2.58)f

tt t

t

PlP

=

:

1 1

(ln ) (ln ) (ln ) (ln )ln ln ln

(2.59)

ff t t t t

t t t

ft tt t

t t

d d e d P d Pe P

dt dt dt dte

e

= + = +

= +

, / / . (t=0), (t

f>0) / (lt/lt-1>0) (t/t-1>0), 2 . (t>0 lt/lt-1=t

f=0) (t/t-1

32

() (Uncovered Interest Parity). (i) (ii) () () , .

1( ) (2.61)f t t tt tt

E e ei il+ = +

lt: (), lt

f: , Et (et+1): t+1 t et: . (2.61) () ( ). it-it

f-[Et (lt+1)-lt]/lt>0(

33

(2.63)et ti r= + (r) / (tl) (lt). , . , , (et) : (i) , (Pt/Ptf). (Pt) [ (Pt

f)] , (), () ( ) () . (ii) (barriers to entry) (import duties) (import quotas) . 4 . (iii) . , ( ). (iv) . () () . , () [World Trade Organisation (WTO)], , , , .

2.5

,

34

, , . "" . (i) (ii) (iii) ... .

, () () .

() : . , (), (L) [Terra(T)]. , i (Yi) :

( , , )(2.64)i i i iY f K L T= :

(.) (.) (.)

1 1 1 1 (2.65)i i i

i i i i

i i i

i i i ii k i L i T i

i i i i

dY dK dL dTf f fdt K dt L dt T dt

dY dK dL dTY MP K MP L MP TY dt K dt L dt T dt

= + +

= + +

:

( , , ) /iK i i i i

MP f K L T K= :

i .

( , , ) /iL i i i i

MP f K L T L= : i

35

( , , ) /iT i i i i

MP f K L T T= : i

.

1 , , 2 (r), (w) (l) (w=wi, r=ri & l=li i=1,...,N) 3 .

:

(2.66)i

iK

i i

r rMPP P

= =

(2.67)i

iL

i i

w wMPP P

= =

(2.68)i

iT

i i

l lMPP P

= =

, , :

1 1 1 1 (2.69)i i i ii i i i

dY dK dL dTY dt K dt L dt T dt

= = = =

(2.66)~(2.69) (2.65) :

1 1 1 1

( )

1 1(2.70)

i i i i i i i ii i i i

N N N N

i i i i i i i i i ii i i i

K L T

r w l aaY K L T aY rK wL lT

P P P P

Y P rK wL lT PY r K w L l T

rK wL lTY rK wL lT s s sY Y Y

= = = =

= + + = + +

= + + = + +

= + + + + = + + =

:

rKs

Y=

: (share of capital)

wLs

Y=

:

lTs

Y=

:

1

N

ii

K K=

=:

36

1

N

ii

L L=

=:

1

N

ii

T T=

=:

1

N

i ii

Y PY=

=: ()

(2.70) . , , . , .

() : , . . j (j=1,2...,J)5, . j (j) Yj. :

1 21

... (2.71)J

j Jj

N N N N N=

= + + + = &

1 21

... (2.72)J

j Jj

Y Y Y Y Y=

= + + + =

, Lorenz (Lorenz Curve) Gini (Gini coefficient).

. . (j)

Lorenz

1 1N 1Y 1n 1y 1 1 1 1 1( , )

37

2 2N 2Y 2n 2y 2 2 2 2 2( , )

3 3N 3Y 3n 3y 3 3 3 3 3( , )

M M M M M M M M

J jN jY jn jy j j ( , )J J J

Lorenz ' . 2.1 (). , . , () . :

100 (2.73)ijN

nN

= &

100 (2.74)ijYyY

=

, , :

1(2.75)

J

j ij

n=

= & 1

(2.75)J

j ij

y=

=

7 Aj(j,j), j=1,...,J, -2.7. (j), 0% 100%, (j), 0% 100%.

38

-27

Aj (0,0) (100,100), ( ) (j,j) . . j, j=1,...J, Lorenz ( ). Lorenz, -2.7 . Lorenz (EL) :

Lorenz 0 ( Lorenz ) 5.000 [(100x100)/2],

1

1 11

1 ( )(2.77)2

J

L j j j jj

+ +=

=

39

j).

Gini (G) Lorenz OBAj(=5000), :

(2.78)1 50002

L L

j j

E EG

= =

EL[0,5000], Gini 8 [0,1].

: .

(j)

(Nj)

(Yj)

0 ~ 30 214 5080

30 ~ 80 114 4810

80 ~ 100 76 6708

100 ~ 110 20 2500

110 8 1760

Lorenz Gini [ . (1993), , 519]

:

Lorenz . .

40

.

(j) Nj Yj nj yj j j

Lorenz

1 214 5080 49.54 24.35 49.54 24.35 1(49.54,2

4.35)

2 114 4810 26.39 23.06 75.93 47.41 2(75.93,4

7.41)

3 76 6708 17.59 32.16 93.52 79.57 3(93.52,7

9.57)

4 20 2500 4.63 11.99 98.15 91.56 4(98.15,9

1.56)

5 8 1760 1.85 8.44 100 100 5(100,100

)

432 20858 100 100

Aj(j,j), j=1,...,5,

41

OA1A2A3A4A5 Lorenz OA5.

(EL) 9 (2.77). J=5

4 4 4

1 1 1 11 1 1

1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 2 1 3 2 4 3 5 4

1 1( ) ( )2 2

1 ( )21 [(49.54)(47.41) (75.93)(79.57) (93.52)(91.56) (98.15)(100)2

(75.93)(24.35) (47.41)(93.52) (79.57)(

L j j j j j j j jj j j

E

+ + + += = =

= = =

= + + + =

= + + +

98.15) (91.56)(100)]1 1(26768.1327 23248.4742) (3519.6585) 1759.532 2 L

=

= = =

(2.78) Gini :

1759.83 0.3525000 5000

LEG = = =

.

2.6

(growth). ,

42

.

, (economic growth) . . .

>

, :

i. (per capita GDP) .

ii. , (t) (Lt) [capital-labour ratio (kt)], .

iii. . iv. (St

l) (Stk) .

v. .

vi. , , , .

vii. () ( - ) () .

viii. . ix.

. x.

, , , . .

. , . (endogenous growth models)

43

> (Yt) , (Kt) (Lt), (At). , :

, ,( )(2.79)t t t tY F K L A=

. (efficient) , . (2.79) (efficiency units) :

1 2( , )(2.80)t t t t tY F A K A L=

1t tA K : ,

2t tA L : , .

1 2t t tA A A= = , Hicks (Hicks neutral), (2.80) , , :

( , ) ( , )(2.81)t t t t t t t t tY F A K A L Y A F K L= = F(.):

[2 2(.) / 0, (.) / 0t tF K F K > < &

2 2(.) / 0, (.) / 0t tF L F L > < ] . (2.81) :

44

{ {

(.) (.)( , ) (.)

1(.) (2.81)(.) (.)1 1 1

(.) / (.) /

K L

Kt

t t t tt t t t t

t t

MP MP

t t t tK Lt

t

t t tK L

t t t t t

S

dY dA dK dLF FY A F K L F Adt dt K dt L dt

dY dA dK dLMP MPA Fdt A dt F dt F dt

dY dA dKMP MPY dt A dt F K K dt F L

= = + +

= + +

= + +

uuuuuur

14243

1

(2.82)

Lt

t

t

S

K Lt t t tt t

t t t t

dLL dt

Y K LS SY A K L

= + +

14243

Yt/Yt: , At/At: , Kt/Kt: , Lt/Lt: , St

K & StL:

, , 10 :

(.) (2.83)(.)(.) (2.84)(.)

K t Kt

t K

L t Lt

t L

K MPFSK F AP

L MPFSL F AP

= =

= =

:

(.) /K tMP F K= & (.) /L LMP F K= : (marginal products)

(.) /K tAP F K= & (.) /L tAP F L= : (average product) . (2.82) (At/At), (St

K,Kt/Kt) (StLLt/Lt). 11 . (2.82) 1 (At/At), 2 (St

KKt/Kt) 3 (StLLt/Lt).

. St

K+StL=1

(). (2.82) Ak/Ak:

45

(2.85)K Lt t t tt tt t t t

A Y K LS SA Y K L

=

Ak/Ak . (Yt/Yt), (Kt/Kt) (Lt/Lt), . , At/At Cobb-Douglas:

(2.86)at t t tY K L u=

,: 12 ut: (residuals) (2.86) :

(ln ) (ln ) (ln ) (ln )ln ln ln1 1 1 1

(2.87)

t t t tt t t

t t t t

t t t t

t t tt

t t t

d Y d K d L d uY K udt dt dt dt

dY dK dL duY dt K dt L dt u dt

Y K Le

Y K L

= + = + +

= + +

= + +

(2.87) (OLS). , lt 13 . At/At Robert Solow 1957 Ak/Ak Solow. > , . , , , . : ) .

46

) . (Yt) (Wt) :

(2.88)t Kr MP= , (2.89)t LW MP= ) [ Harrod (Harrod neutral)]:

( , , )(2.90)t t t tY F K A L= ) (2.90) (Kt) (AtLt). , (2.90) =1/AtLt :

{ {

( , , ),1 ( )(2.91)

t t

t t t t t tt t

t t t t t t

y K

Y F K A L y KF y g kA L A L A A

= = = %%

%%

/ , / , /t t t t L t t t t ty y A y AP Y L k k A= = = =%%

/t t tk K L= (2.90) Kt AtLt:

0tKt

YMPK

= > &

2

2 0(2.92)tt

YK

<

( )0tAL

t t

YMPA L

= >

& ( )

2

2 0(2.93)tt t

YA L

&

2

2 0(2.95)tt

YL

0 : (t) (Kt) (2.109) , , , . , :

(2.96) 0(ln ) (ln ) (ln )ln ln ln

1 1 (2.110)

t t tt t t t

t

t t

t t

K d k d K d L ntk k K LL dt dt dt

dk dKn

K dt K dt

+= = =

=

dKt/dt=sYt-Kt, :

1 1 ( )(2.111)t t t tt t t t

dk sY dk sJd n nK dt K K dt k

= = +

Harrod Cobb-Douglas :

( )1 (2.109)1 1 (1 ) (1 ) (2.112)t t t t t t t t t t t t tY K A L A L k k L k Y L k += = =

54

(1 ) (2.113)t ty k +=

(0,1) =1->0 (2.111) (2.113) :

(1 ) 1 (1 )( 1)1 1( ) ( )(2.114)t tt tt t

dk dkask n sk n

k dt k dt + = + = +

(2.114) , , . , (2.114) =1, :

1 ( )(2.115)tt

dks n

k dt = +

, (s) (n) (). n>0, (2.115) (t) sa-. =1 . =1 (2.109), (2.112) (2.113) :

(2.116)t tA k= (2.117)t tY K= (2.118)t ty k= (2.116) (2.118), (At) (Yt) , s-(+n). ct st (;). (2.117) , . , s-, (APk=Y/K= MP=Yk/=), ( 2Yk/K

2t=k/Kt=0).

, . Kt

55

(2.117), () ( ), . 3 : 3.1 . (quantitative means) (qualitative means). (i) (fiscal) , (ii) (monetary) (credit) , (iii) (foreign exchange) (iv) (direct controls). . . 3.2 (i) [Government Spendings (GS)] (ii) [Taxes(TA)] [Public Borrowing(D)]. .

56

3.1 :

1 2 . ) (public consuption), , , (. , ), () (public investments),

&

/

/

..

57

(infrastructure projects), , , . (stocks) , () ( ). [Tranfer Payments (TP)] , . () , , . () . (i) (ii) . (, ) (direct) (indirect). () (income tax), (personal & corporate income tax), () (real estate tax), , [. (inheritance tax), ] () (employers contribution). ( ) ( ). 1% , (turnover tax) .. [Value Added Tax (V.A.T)], 2 , , , (consuption taxes). (import taxes) C.I.F , . , ,

58

. [Aggregate Taxes (TA)], () () .

(3.1)tTA T T = + , (GS) (G) (TR):

(3.2)t t tGS G TR= + (GS) (TA) ( ) (D):

(3.2) ( ) (3.3)t t t t t t t t tD GS TA G TA TR D G T= = Tt=TAt-TRt : . (3.3) . 1 DtTt, (deficit) Gt-Tt (public or fiscal budget deficit). . , . 1 : ( ) . . , , .

59

2 : . , . 3 : . , . LM. (wealth effect) , , , IS . , IS-LM LM. 1 : . , . , M0 ( ), , LM . IS, . , LM . . , , , . .

60

(Yt

s=Yt) (Yt

0), [Consumption (Ct)], [Investments(It)], [Government Expenditures(Gt)] [balance of trade(IXt)] :

(3.4)t t t t tY C I G IX= + + +

( )d

t tC C Y=

( ) 0(3.5)d

td

t

c YY

>

, (3.6)d

t t t t tY Y T Y TR TA= = +

( )et tI I r= , * 0(3.7)

e

te

t

I rr

TYe , 1=TYe 1TYe ), 1% ( 1= %) 1% ( 1>TYe 1>> %).

65

. . .

iii) , , . ( ) , , , , , .

iv) () , . (..., )

, . , . , , .

, , . , .

() .

,

66

, .

t , . , :

PG+iB=PT+++R+ (3.9)

: P: , G: ( ) , i: , : , : ( ), : , R: : .

(3.9) (PG) (iB). (3.9) (PT), (), () ()

R==0, (3.9) :

P(GT)+iB=++} }00

+R )3.3( =PD+iB

= PD

+i -

iy

iyy

Dy+

=

+

=

1

(3.10)

0

67

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

=

+

= yyy

yy

yy

dtdy

dtdydt

dy

dtd

2222

={ {

)10.3(

)11.3(

=

yyy

yyy

( ) ( )

+

=++

= ry

iy

1

(3.12)

=: , y

y=

:

= ir : .

, , (3.12) =0 :

( ) += r (3.13)

( ) ( )r .

(. 000 ===

yD

),

(3.13) >r

68

, .

, 3:

yrr == (3.14)

( )1,0r : , : , y: .

(3.14) :

( ) ( )

+=

+=

+=+=+==

rdr

ydy

rdr

d

ydy

r

drd

ydyyr

r

dryrdrdyydrdrdyydrdrydd

1

yrr+= 1 (3.15)

=

r

drd

t :

yr

drdy

yr = :

(3.15) 1%,

yr

. r , , , r, . :

3 t. .

69

IS: ( ) ( ) GrgyCy d ++= , (3.16)

&

LM: )()( rlyk +=

(3.17)

( )yryy d =

= 1)14.3(

: ,

( )dyC : , 4

>

= 0(.) dy yCC d

,

),( ry : ,

= 0(.)&0(.)

ry ry ,

G: , ,

: , ,

k(y): ,

>

= 0(.) ykk y

)(rl : ,

5

70

LM, (y,r) .

(3.17) LM :

( ) 00

>=+=

r

yry l

kdydrdrldykd

321 (3.18)

(3.16) :

{++=

+==

+++=drdyCrydrCdy

dyrdrydyyry

dGdrdydyCdryyy

dd

ryd

yy

dd

d

)1()1()1()0()1(

0

[ ] +=+=dydr

dydryCCrdrdryCdyCr ryyyryyy dddd )1(1)1(1

+

==+

r

yryy

yy

r

yryy

lk

Cr

Cydr

dydydryC

lk

Crd

d

dd

)1(11)1(1

)18.3(

r

yryy

yyr

lk

Cr

rC

d

d

+

=

)1(1 (3.19)

(3.15) (3.19) :

r

yryy

r

yryy

r

lk

Cr

lk

C

d

d

+

+

=)1(1

1

(3.20)

r

yryy

yr

lk

C

rC

d

d

+

+

=

11

1

(3.21)

(3.20) (3.21) . () LM (

LM), 0=ry lk ,

71

(3.20) 0

72

[0,1], %100%0 r . ,

r=0% ( ) r=100% ( ), (=r) . (0,0) (100,0) Laffer. . , (.. 0% 20%) , Laffer. (r*) . (r*, 100), , , .

1981 , Laffer, , Ronald Reagan, . , Reaganomics. 1981~1983, , 7.

7

,

.

73

, , , , , . , , .

:

1 t=0 : 0000 == GD

2 t=1 (lump sum), :

01 GG = 01 = .

3 t=1,

111 = GD , r 1 .

4 t=2

: 0== ttt GD 2t .

, . t=2, t=1 . :

( ) 122 1 DrGT ++= (3.22)

, (3.22), t=1, . (Ricardian Equivalence theorem),

, ( ) .

74

111 = GD , (3.22) :

++= ))(1( 1122 GrG rGG

r ++=

+

+

112

12

1 (3.23)

, t=1 , .

3.3

, . . (i) , (ii) (iii) . (i) (ii) .

i)

(open market operations) . , , ( ) 8. , .

,

8 x ( ) i , ( ) ( )ix += 1 . ( ) ( )i .

75

. , . () , () , () () . , . () , () () , () () .

ii)

(discount rate) 9. , , (), () , () () . () . , .

, , . , , .

iii)

, [Monetary Base (MB)] [Currency (C)] [Total Reserves

9 1 . ( 610=x ), .

900.000 ( )6109.0 = : ( ) ( ) 1111.0

9.0109.0110110109.0 6

666

=+= ii 11.11%

76

(TR)], :

MB=TR+C (3.24)

, , [Required Reserves (RR)] [Excess Reserves (ER)]:

TR=RR+ER (3.25)

(r) (D) , :

RR=rD , 0

77

1 (c) (D):

1 =c+D (3.30)

(3.28), (3.29) (3.30) :

1 =c+D 1)28.3( =(1+c)D

)30.3(

++

+=

cer

c11

(3.31)

, (r). , , . , , . , , . , , , . .

, . , . , . r , , , , , .

78

, (e) . (3.31), e , , c , .

i)

, 1 2 . , .

ii)

. ) , ) , ) ... .

3.4

, .

(fixed exchange rates)

79

(managed or dirty float). 10 . .

, , , , (MB) . , , :

i)

, 11.

, :

ei

S

:...

... . ... ( ), [ (3.31)]. , , , ... [ (2.62), 53]

10

, Maastricht , , 15% . 11

,

[ (2.47), . 43]

80

, ... :

( ) eeiSS :...)()()(

, , 12, , ... [ (2.62), 53]

, . , , (overshooting) .

ii)

, . ..., , .

... 13, . , (sterilized intervention).

12 ...

111

==

t

tt

t

te

e

.

,

. 13

f

tt ii (2.62) , ( )[ ] tttt eee +1 .

81

3.5

, . , . , . :

,

, : (i) () , . (ii) , . (iii) . (iv) , , . (v) , , ...

, . , , . , , , .

,

82

. , ( ) . ( ).

( ) , , , . , (). .

.

. , .

.1

. 5

1 2 . .

- . , .

83

. , , (O.L.S.). ()

( )[ ]2

,0~ uNu .

. .

, . ( ) . () , () , .

(i) , (ii) , .

, :

( ) Ctttt uC ++= 10 (.1) ,00 10 1

84

.

, (6)

( )ttttttC &,,,, (.1)~(.5)

. .

, () , , () , . , () .

, , : 1 ,

(G), ( 0 ) ()

( 1 ), 2

, (f ),

.

(.2)~(.7) () , (.1), (.2), (.4) (.5), , () , , (.3) (.7) () , (.6), .

: 1 2 , , .. MPC (0,1) .

85

:

Cttt uC ++= 10 (.8) ( ) ( ) 0== CttCtt uuC , ( )2

,0~ uCt Nu

ttt GC += (.9)

,

( tC t ) , [ ]. .

:

+

+=

+=

++=

t

Ct

t

Ct

t

t

ttt

Cttt

Gu

GuC

GCuC 01

1

0110

111

11

111

+

+

=

+

+

=

111

0

11

1

1

0

111

1

111

Cttt

Cttt

uG

uGC

++=

++=

)11.()10.(

2210

1110

ttt

ttt

GGC

1122

1

111

1

010 1

&1

1,

1,

1

=

=

=

= Ct

u

0)(

11)(

1

=

= Ctttt uCC

0)(

11)(

1

=

= Ctttt u

(.10) (.11) , BLUE

86

0

1

,0

1

1

111

1

010 >

=

=

1

11

122 >=

:

=

=

=

=

=

=

22

111

22

100

22111

22010

1

111

1

010

1

1

(.8) ,

0 1 (ILS).

11 22

:

1111

0

10 )()(

=

+

+=

t

t

t

t

t

t

GG

GGC

43421

(.12)

&

2222

0

10 )()(

=

+

+=

t

t

t

t

t

t

GG

GG43421

(.13)

(.12)[(.13)] )( 2211 () .

87

Cta

t ueC t= 10 (.14)

. :

tttCttt eCunnC ++=++= 1010 )( ll (.15)

,, 00 == nnCC tt ll )( Ctt une l= .

(.15) t :

=

=

++=

111100

tt

t

tt

t

t

t

CddC

CddC

ddC

(.16)

=

=1

1t

t

(.15) ,

( ),C .

4.

. . [welfare (W)] , y z, :

W=W(y,z) (4.17)

88

. . , , y z.

W, [Loss Function (LF)] y z

y z .

, , :

LF= ( ) ( )22 += zzyyW (A.18)

**

, zy : y z .

:

Min LF= ( ) ( )2*2* zzyy +

s.t. zy 1110 (A.19)

maxmin yyy (A.20)

maxmin zzz (A.21)

(.18)

( )** , yz LF . .

89

, (z,y) (.19)~(.21), .

( )00 , yz ,

. 1 , .

5.

: (i) (decomposable), (ii) (causal) (iii) (indecomposable).

:

1 :

( iy )

( iz ), )( iii zfy = .

, ),( jijj zyfy = .

90

, ),,( lll zyyfy ji= ...

2 : . nn .

i ji X, 0.

(i) , . :

)( 111 zfy = (.22) ),( 2322 zyfy = (.23) ),( 3233 zyfy = (.24) ),( 4544 zyfy = (.25) ),( 5455 zyfy = (.26)

.1

( 1 ) 11 ,

91

. 1

51 2 3

4 51 2

3

4

1

2

3

0

5

(.22)

(.23)

(.24)

1 2

3

0

0

0 0

4

0

0

0

(.26)

0 0 0

0

0 0

0 0

(.25)

22 . ( ), ( ). , .

. 1z

1y , .

(ii) . :

)( 111 zfy = (.27) ),,( 23122 zyyfy = (.28) ),,( 32133 zyyfy = (.29)

),,,( 432144 zyyyfy = (.30)

.2.

92

, 3

( 321 ,, ) 1 3

2 22 . [ (.27)] , [

(.28) (.29)] , 1y , [ (.30)]

321 ,, yyy .

. , 1z

1y , .

. .2

(A.27) X 0 0 0(A.28) X X X 0(A.29) X X X 0(A.30) X X X X

Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4

(iii) , . :

),( 1311 zyfy = (.31) ),,,( 243122 zyyyfy = (.32)

),( 2133 yyfy = (.33) ),,( 33244 zyyfy = (.34)

.3. , , .

iz

iy .

93

. .3

(A.31) X 0 0(A.32) X X X (A.33) X X X 0(A.34) 0 X X X

y1 y2 y3 y4

),(1 ryfC tt = (.35) )(2 rfi =l (.36)

ttt iCy += (.37)

),(3 ttDt Rf = (.38) = mSt (.39)

St

Dtt == (.40)

+= rRt (.41)

ttt y= (.42)

tC : , ty : , r :

, ti : , Dt : , t :

, tR : , St :

, m : , : , :

94

t : . .

, . :

=

+=

=

)36.()()3()41.()2()39.()1(

2 rfirR

m

t

t

St

1

+=

=

)37.()5()39.(),()4( 3

ttt

ttDt

iCyRf

2

=

=

)42.()7()35.(),()6( 1

ttt

tt

yryfC

3

.4. , 6 , 6 . , .

(.39) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(.41) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(.36) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(.38) 0 0 0 0 1(.37) 0 0 0 0(.42) 0 0 0 0 0(.35) 0 0 0 0 2

Pt

1

Mt Rt it Yt Ct yt

95

6: 6.1

. , , , .

(fixed) (absolute) . , .

, . , , . 6.2

: 1 . . 2 , , .

, (*) , (^) .

: , (.1)

(.2)

: , : , : : .

( ) .

96

, .

1 , , 2 , 3 4 .

, (.1) (.2) :

(.3)

, . , ,

. (.3) , .

: :

(.4) (.5)

(.6)

( ), . ( ) ( ), .

, . ,

( ) ( ).

(.4) ~

(.6) :

(.7)

97

(.5) (.8)

, , . ,

( ) .

: B , .

( ) (.4) (.6) :

(.9)

( ), . , (1) (2)

. 1 ( , ,

) 2 ( ), (.5) :

, .

: , :

98

: () : ().

( ), .

: Leontief:

u(v): () .

(.14) :

(Y*)

. =* :

, ,

. ,

: . (5) (2) [degrees of freedom (3)].

99

k=2 e=5 :

,

.1 . , . . , , . 1

( )

( ), 2 .

, , . r 0 1 Cg Igr 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 01 0 0 0Cg 0 0Ig 0

. Y* (.17) :

(.21)

, , (.16), (.18), (.19) (.20) :

100

, (.21)

(.22) , ( ) 1 2 .

(.21) (.22)

(.21) (.22).

:

.

: 1 () ( ), () ( ) () ( ). 2 . 3 . 4 , . . 5 .

101

, , .

6.3

, , . , .

, .

:

(-6.1)

:

(-6.2) (-6.1)

, (-6.2)

, .

. ,

(.23)

(.24)

102

(.23),

. (.24),

.

.

: . .

: , :

:

103

(.8) (.7) :

(.27) (.8)

:

, ( ) ( ) (.23), (.24)

7: 7.1

[Loss Function (LF)] , . . LF , , .

, . (flexible) (variable) (relative) .

104

, . .

7.2

() Lagrange () . (LF). , .

:

(7.1) (7.2)

:

: :

105

1 G C. (G) (Y) (C).

, , :

(7.8) LF,

. , (C) :

:

(7.9) (7.9)

:

:

(7.10) (7.3)

( :

106

,

,

, (LF=0). 7.3

, .

>

, .. , , (7.8) :

:

:

(7.14) :

:

107

.

(7.3) (7.15)

( ):

:

. >

:

:

:

108

(7.20) G. :

(7.21) (7.22),

. :

:

,

, , , . , . 7.4

, ,

109

. .

:

, (), (C) ( ), , , (G) (r), . , , .

:

, . (7.25)~(7.27) Y, C :

110

,

, (7.29) (7.31):

:

, . :

:

() ,

111

. (7.34) (7.29) (7.31):

,

, (7.28) :

,

,

.

.

, , .

, [

(7.29) (7.31)] .

. , .

112

9:

(..)

.

.. , r , (). . , .

(

):

..

.

: (6) IS

(r,Y), . IS (6). () ().

IS :

IS:

i) :

ii) :

iii) :

113

iv) :

, IS ( ( .

: (8) LM

(r,Y) . LM (). () LM ().

LM :

LM:

i)

ii)

iii)

IS LM (r,Y)

. , .. .. , .

IS-LM , (>0) , .

LM . (r,Y) IS. 9.1 , ,

IS.

114

1 IS . , 1:

2:

9.1

3:

115

LM1 LM2. , , , . (Y,r)

().

, , . .

2 9.1 IS LM IS LM1. LM LM2, , . , , .

, .

. 9.1

IS LM , IS .

. , . (Y,r) .

, . .

(Y,r) . , IS, . , (Y,r) . IS LM.

LM IS. :

116

IS-LM , r . , . : (i) r . (ii) Y r . () IS () IS .

> IS

IS :

)

, . :

,

:

:

LF

:

117

,

(11), :

..,

... . :

IS-LM

-9.2. LM

() , . ( IS LM.

) Y r

,

. :

,

:

,

, :

118

LF :

(17) :

(20) . :

(18) (20)

, :

(

-9.3 IS LM. LM , , .

119

.

> IS.

IS , r , (10). : 1 , LM IS,

( . , . 2 , , (Y,r) .

IS , , LM .

>

, . :

, :

120

, , , . IS (24)~(26) :

LM (27)

(28) :

u v :

,

. :

, . r ( ) (29):

(= ), (29) (30):

121

[ (11) (17)] [ (36) (37)], . (36) (37) ,

u v. (36) (37) :

(38)

..

( ) :

(39)

..

(= )

:

M(r)

.

.. (41) (40):

122