The global livestock agenda Opportunities and challenges

Jimmy Smith

15th AAAP Animal Science Congress, Bangkok,Thailand

26-30 November 2012

The global livestock sector • Magnitude • Diversity • Dynamic • Important for global development challenges

Trends in the global livestock sector • Consumption • Food production • Trade

Livestock and the environment Livestock and livelihoods Livestock and health/nutrition

Overview

The global livestock sector

The global livestock sector

17 billion domestic animals

Asset value $1.4 trillion

Employs 1.3 billion people

Uses one third of the earth’s ice free surface

4

Four out of the five highest value global commodities are livestock

Livestock contribution to AgGDP

6

4.0%

5.6%

4.3% 2.9%

3.8%

2.8%

2.4%

2.8%

2.4%

Livestock

GDP

(Figures in bars are annual growth rates)

FAO, 2012

Diversity in the livestock sector

From…..

Few animals

Multiple functions

Sales – at times of need

Risk mitigation 7

To…..

00,000s of animals

Rapid, regular turn over

Only for income

Growth scenarios for livestock systems

‘Strong growth’ – Where good market access and

increasing productivity provide opportunities for continued smallholder participation.

‘Fragile growth’ – Where remoteness, marginal land

resources or agro-climatic vulnerability restrict intensification.

‘High growth with externalities’ – Fast changing livestock systems

potentially damaging the environment and human health

Different research and development challenges for poverty, food security, health and nutrition, environment

Livestock and global development challenges

Feeding the World – Livestock provide 58 million tonnes of protein annually and 17% of the

global kilocalories.

Removing poverty – Almost 1 billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods

Managing the environment – Livestock contribute 14 -18% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions;

use 30% of the freshwater used for agriculture and 30% of the ice free land

– Transition of livestock systems – huge opportunity to impact on future environment

Improving human health – Zoonoses and contaminated animal source foods

– Malnutrition and obesity

9

Animal source foods and global diets

10

FAO, 2012

Livestock growth and GDP

11

Consumption and production

% growth in demand for livestock products 2000 - 2030

13

FAO, 2012

Consumption - drivers Population: Rising to 9-10 billion

Urbanization

– Since 2008 more people in urban than rural areas

– Two thirds urban anticipated by 2050

Incomes

Supermarkets

Trade

14

Supermarkets or informal sector?

‘Supermarket revolution’ took off in 1990s

Increases in market share vary around the world

General features • Impacts the rich first

• Vertical integration of food markets

• Threat to smallholder participation

Effects not same for all products • First in processed foods

(flour, oil, condiments)

• Last in fresh foods (meat, dairy, fruits and veg)

Informal milk market 80% in India

ILRI/Mann

FAO: SOFA 2009

Growing trade in livestock commodities–with impacts also at local level

Food production: From where?

Herrero et al. 2009

Food production: By whom?

Today: 50 – 75% of livestock production in Africa and Asia from small farms (less than 2ha; 2 TLU)

Future: Small or large farms?

Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment)

Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor

Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour

Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?

Smallholder sector fragmented: What actors are needed to support it?

Trajectory of change?

Livestock and the environment

19

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050

Climate change What will happen to feed resources? diseases? productivity?

Courtesy of Andy Jarvis

Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kg of animal protein produced

Large inefficiencies in the developing world– an opportunity?

Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

Production efficiency – developed countries

22

Capper et al., 2009

Feed, breed,

health =

4 fold milk

increase

Estimated GHG emissions per kg of FPCM at farm gate, averaged by main

regions and the world

23

FAO, 2010

Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods

Use of biomass– for soil or feed (or fuel)

Reduction of animal numbers– implications for livelihoods

Producing with smaller environmental footprint

Livestock and livelihoods

Livestock production and marketing are essential for the livelihoods of almost 1 billion

Two-thirds are women

1.3 billion people employed in livestock value chains globally

25

Role of animals

Multiple Comparing cattle systems in Kenya, Zambia and Sri Lanka:

– Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping came from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing

– Insurance: – Financing:

Livestock - an inflation-proof savings/investment Manure, traction, social

26

ILRI/Mann

Livestock and human health

27

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2000 0 2000 4000 Kilometers

Diseases

# Anthrax

# Avian Influenza

# Botulism

# Bovine TB

# Brucellosis

# C. difficile

# Cryptosporidium

# Diarrhea

# Dysentery

# Foodborne Illness

# Gastroenteritis

# Leptospirosis

# Salmonella

# Trichinosis

# Waterborne Illness

N

Population Dens ity (person per sq km)

0 - 5

5 - 10

10 - 25

25 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 250

250 - 500

500 - 1000

1000 - 2500

2500 - 5000

5000 - 10000

100000 - 250000

25000 - 50000

50000 - 100000

Livestock and human disease

• Animal-source foods are the

biggest contributor to food-

borne diseases.

• Diseases transmitted from

livestock and livestock

products

kill more people each year

than HIV or malaria.

• One new human disease

emerges every 2 months and

20% of these come from

livestock.

To eat or not to eat . . . meat, milk and fish

1 billion undernourished

2 billion overweight

Research challenges and opportunities

Informing the global research agenda Biophysical research

• Addressing productivity (feed-breed-health) • Enhancing efficient animal production – environmental issues • Addressing and informing livestock-human nutrition • Disease challenges • Practical environmental solutions

Institutional • Incentives and institutional arrangements for environmental

stewardship – payment for ecosystem services • Market and service provision models • Business enterprise models • Evidence to guide public and private sector roles and investments in

livestock

Livestock systems transition • An opportunity to address future food needs • Diversity of starting points and solutions • Research-for-development to address transition:

– Environmentally, socially, economically equitable and sustainable - INCLUSIVE

–

….research that enhances understanding and targeting options and provides biophysical and institutional solutions must be combined to enhance the transition of today’s smallholder livestock farms through inclusive growth to be a vibrant part of the food, poverty alleviation, environmental and health solutions for the future………….

32

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