Taiwan’s 2012 Presidential Election

台灣 2012年總統選舉US Academic Survey Press Conference

美國學術調查記者會Dec. 2, 2011, Taipei

主辦單位：美國俄克拉荷馬大學美中關係研究所

Who?

• Peter Gries, Newman Chair and Director; visiting scholar at National Taiwan University

• Nonpartisan US Academic Institute• Election data will be publically available online at

Harvard University’s Dataverse website

How and When? YouGov (US co.) National Taiwan Survey, Nov. 17-28, 2011

• First use of “sample matching” Internet survey methodology in Taiwan (age, gender, region & ed).

• Minimizes response biases common to telephone and face-to-face interviews.

Ma Leads Tsai and Soong 34% to 26% to 10% among all voters

馬

蔡宋

未決定

• Lead exceeds 6.5% margin of sampling error

• But lowest educated had to be heavily weighted

Gender and warmthtowards the candidates

• Women like Ma more than men do

• Men like Soong more than women

(both small effects)• No gender differences

on Tsai• [Ma supporters slightly

better educated. Mixed evidence on income.]

如果宋楚瑜退出，您會支持誰？ In a race without Soong,

馬

蔡

未決定47%

17%

36%

Soong voters migrate more towards Ma

34%

26%

10%

30%

Ethnicity and Warmthtowards the candidates

• 閩南人 are ambivalent/split on Ma and Cai

• 外省人 are highly polarized

• 客家人 feel warmer towards Ma

Who are the undecided voters?

• Quite a bit younger (mean age of 38 vs. 45) than decided voters

• Substantially more women than men are undecided

• Slightly less wealthy• But very slightly more

educated

未決定30%

Identity Profiles of different voting groups

• All voters identify much more as 台灣人 than as 中國人

• But the identity gap is much greater for Tsai voters than for Ma voters

• Soong voters identify the least as 台灣人

Tsai supporters desire the toughest China policies

Straits policy is in the eyes of the beholder• Ma supporters see

themselves as closest to Ma, and view Tsai as extreme 獨立

• Tsai supporters see themselves as closer to Tsai, and Ma as extreme 統一

• All but Ma supporters view Soong as holding a middle position, but Soong supporters see themselves as more similar to Tsai.

Ma Leads Tsai and Soong 34% to 26% to 10% among all voters

馬

蔡宋

未決定

• Lead exceeds 6.5% margin of sampling error

• But lowest educated had to be heavily weighted