Society in 2050

Society in 2050 Presentation at Eurelectric Joint Environment & Society WG and Health SG Meeting

28–29 June 2010, Vuojoen kartano, Eurajoki

Demos Helsinki Aleksi Neuvonen & Simo Vassinen

keskiviikkona 30. kesäkuuta 2010

The Age of planning:



engineering



engineeringwarfare



engineeringwarfare

industrial society



engineeringwarfare

industrial societynational planning



engineeringwarfare

industrial societynational planningsocial insurance

schemes



engineeringwarfare

industrial societynational planningsocial insurance

schemeswelfare state


From scarcity to abundance.”Abundance” is not just ”less scarcity”


Every year there are over 70 000 000 consumers more on this planet.


A mind leap to the other side of the peak.


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Three mega trends 2009-2050Scarcity, abundance, scarcity, abundance...


1. The Revenge of the Bell Curve


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Source: USDA & BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009.


12

energy = food = water


13

energy = food = water


Oil

Coppe

rUraniumArable land

Aluminium

Natural gas


Well

-bein

gW

ealth

InnovationsFreedom

HappinessLove


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Three mega trends 2009–2050I. The Revenge of the Bell Curve


II. The Stepping Out of the Futile People


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The maintenance relation in Finland 1950–2050

Children and seniors / 100 employed

Source: Statistics Finland

> 65 years< 15 years


WorkSleep Leisure

8.00 17.30 22.30


LeisureSleep

8.00 17.30 22.30

What happens with all this excess time?


A new generation takes over Portion of population with degrees higher then compulsory schooling of 25–34 year-olds in Finland in 1975–2005.

Secondary or higher Only basic education

% 25–34 year-olds


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Three mega trends 2009–2050I. The Revenge of the Bell CurveII. The Stepping Out of Futile People


III. A Time of Communal Individuals


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”There is no such thing as society, only individuals.”


Not true, but...


...Thatcher’s programme also reveals something essential of a changed society.

Some decades earlier no prime minister would have stated such strong views on individuals and the society!


Something has happened in the relationship between individuals and society.


Loneliness = lack of possibilities for togetherness.


1973: California


60% global bicycle markets


A new individualism means new types of communities: ones that you choose to belong

to and ones where you can act freely, with a big heart.


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Three mega trends 2009–2050

I

III

II


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I

II

III


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Expanding markets

Expandingpeer

production

I

II

III


Scenario I: Expanding markets


Björn again

Scenario I: Expanding markets


When everything is on salekeskiviikkona 30. kesäkuuta 2010

Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.The benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs.

Sir Nicholas Stern : The Economics of Climate Change


What next?


Expanding markets provide everything with a responsible, caring owner.

At the same time, the economy expands and grows.

There is more tax income and enough labor of different scales and for different skill sets.


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MoneyElderly care

Mountaineering

Baking

Partying

EnergyHealthcare

Friendship

Learning

SexualityBuilding a house

Programming

Family

Biking

Love

Spirituality

Consolation


Virtues in 2050

FrugalityRationalityFairnessTransparencyCost-efficiency


Scenario II: Expanding peer

production


New friendships

Scenario II: Expanding peer

production


East New York Farms, Brooklynkeskiviikkona 30. kesäkuuta 2010

In the world of friendship a growing part of meaningful things takes place in peer communities.

They produce virtues that are taken to other parts of life, as well.

Most find themselves with several circles of friends. Through communities we gain things that aren’t for sale.


Building a house

FamilyBaking

Sexuality

Love

Consolation

Mountaineering

Friendship

Energy

Partying

Learning

Elderlycare

Money

Programming


Doing together for the common good is born where there are no ready-made institutions or resources to address a

new need.


A night slept badly affects our happiness more than our wallet.

The wealthier we are the less positive impact extra income has on our personal happiness.


How to gain high status among your peers in 2010?To be good at your workTo be widely educated

To be a committed father or mother

To be fluent in several languages

To possess a clear world view To possess craftman’s skills To live in a long and stable

mariageTo devote both time and

money to helping less well-to-do people

To possess personal style


Virtues in 2050

TrustCommitmentSharingFreedomResilience


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I

II

III


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Expanding markets

Expandingpeer

production

I

II

III


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What does scarcity mean in 2050?


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What does scarcity mean in 2050?What does abundance mean in 2050?


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What are the things people share in 2050?


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What are the things people share in 2050?To what issues people are willing to invest their

time in 2050?


The biggest question for any organisation:


What does the scarcity of


A part of the problem – or a part

of the solution?


Popular Science 1922, Henry Ford


Society in 2050

Business

Transcript of Society in 2050