Session 3Technical Change

이성호 박기범

Key word

• Demand-pull vs Technology push

• Continuity vs Discontinuity

• Incremental vs Radical

• Innovation Direction

• Innovation Source

Technological Paradigms and Technological

Trajectories

Research Question

• Why did certain technological developments emerge instead of others?

• Are there regularities in the process of generation of new technologies and in technical progress thereafter?

• Is there any regularity in the functional relationship between the vast number of economic, social, institutional, scientific factors which are likely to influence the innovative process

• Which is Prime Mover?

Market-pull theory

• There exist a set of consumption and intermediate goods

• Demand function are determined by the existence and the forms of utility functions

• Demand proportionally more of the goods which embodied some relatively preferred characteristics

• The producers realized the revealed needs

• Proper innovation process begins

• The theory is supposed to explain incremental technical process on the existing products/process.

Technology push

• Science – Technology – Production

• The increasing role of scientific inputs

• The increased complexity of R&D activities which makes the innovative process a matter of long-run planning

• A significant correlation between R&D efforts and innovative output

• Uncertain nature of the inventive activity

• No consider economic factors

Technological paradigms & Technological trajectories

• Technology is a set of pieces of knowledge

• Technological paradigm is a model and a pattern of solution of selected technological problem and determines the field of enquiry, the problems, the procedures and the tasks.

• Technological trajectory is the pattern of normal problem solving activity on the ground of a technological paradigm.

• Economic, institutional and social factors are selector which choose technology

• Markets operate as selective environment at product stage

Discussion

• Science 의 발전은 누가 이끌어 가는가 ?• 국가만이 Science 발전의 주체가 되는가 ?

• 제도 혹은 사회적 환경에 의해 선택되지 못한 Science 는 쇠퇴되어야 하는가 ?

• 유럽입자물리 연구소 (CERN)• 2008 년 거대강입자충돌기 (LHC)

완공 (6 조원 소요 )• 2013 힉스 입자 발견

Discussion

• Management 관점에서 Demand-pull 과 Technology-push 의 중요성은 ? 단순히 현상을 설명하기 위한 수단인가 ?• 자원할당 , 위험관리 , 경쟁우위 창출 , First mover vs fast

follower

• Technology-push Theory 를 실제 기업 경영에서 어떻게 활용할 것인가 ? Management 화 시킬 수 있는 부분이 있는가 ?• Xerox’s Palo Alto Research Center

객체지향 프로그램 Personal Workstation Ethernet

Discussion

• S-curve 관점에서 Technical Change 를 설명할 순 없을까 ?

Performance

Effort

Limit of Technology Discontinuity 를 위한 지식 암묵기는 아닐까 ?

Discussion

• 저자가 주장한 Technological Paradigm and Technological Trajectory 에서 제도 혹은 사회적 환경에 따른 기술 선택 Risk 를 기업은 어떻게 관리할 것인가 ?• 어떤 기술이 선택될지 모르는 Risk 를 어떻게 관리할 것인가 ?

• 자동차 시장 친환경 기술

⇒ GM: Fuel cell⇒ Toyota: Hybrids⇒ DaimlerChrysler: Diesel⇒ Honda: Diesel, Hybrids, Fuel cell

Discussion

• Demand-pull 형태의 Radical Innovation 은 있을 수 없는가 ?• 한경희 스팀청소기• 1999 년 한경희 대표가 설립• 스팀청소기라는 새로운 Product Category 를 만들어냄• 연매출 1500 억원• 2012 년 생활가전기업 국내 인지도 3 위

The Sources of Innovation

Chp 1 & 2

Functional Source of Innovation

• Definition : Categorizing firms and individuals in terms of the functional relationship.

• Categorized into User, Manufacturer, Supplier, Other

Variation in the Functional Source of Innovation

• Functional role of a firm is not fixed. It depends on the particular innovation being examined

• Source of innovation differs significantly between categories of innovation.

• An Economic explanation (Economic rents) :=> Different expectations of innovation-related profits by each firm make the difference it is necessary that potential

Understanding & Managing Distributed Innovation Process

• General strategies and rules for generating or predicting innovation are Difficult to identify.=>Suggested way: Field investigation =>Informal know-how trading

• Predicting and Shifting source of innovation by managing the distribution of expected innovation profits is Possible.

Implication

• Innovation Research- Find strong patterns from data and build a understanding of the way innovation-related profits are captured - More complex patterns should be studied

• Innovation Management- Modify firms’ organizational arrangements- Develop new tools for analyzing and shifting functional sources of innovation.

• Innovation Policy- Develop new tools to measure and influence innovation.

Users as InnovatorsScientific Instrument Case

Diffusion of Innovations

• Mostly researchers employed by universities- Active in speeding the diffusion1) publishing 2) presenting at conferences 3) visiting other scientists

• Rapidly picked up by other scientists or by commercializing firms1) other scientists replicate the device and publish papers involving its use 2) commercial version on the market

Users as InnovatorsSemiconductor & PC board

Case

• Purpose : to see the pattern in more “normal” fields before generalizing “users-as-innovators”

• Major process steps identified

• Definition, Methods taken under same principle

Findings

• User innovation not restricted to scientific instruments only

• Modest amount of joint user/manufacturer innovation activity

• Users active in two types of innovations that have not been discussed before.1) users developed all of the technique-only process innovations in the sample.2) users were found to be the developers of all multistep process concepts

Diffusion of Innovations

• Users of process equipment innovations do not necessarily have an incentive to transfer what they know to an equipment manufacturer.

• In fact they might have an incentive to hide what they know to achieve a competitive advantage.

User-dominated Innovation Process

• It is typically the product user, not the product manufacturer, who recognizes the need, solves the problem through an invention, builds a prototype, and proves the prototype's value in use.

• Only commercial diffusion is carried out by the manufacturer.

Discussion

• 저자는 ‘ Diverse Source of innovation’ 에 대해 경제학적 (Economic Rent) 접근을 통해 설명한다 .

반면 Nelson & Winter(1977) 는 ‘ generation of innovation’ 에 대한 profit maximization hypothesis 의 한계점에 대해 서술하며 진화론적 접근을 제시한다

두 접근은 어떻게 다른가 ? 서로 대립되는 것인가 ?

Technological Discontinuities and

Organizational Environments

Overview

Technological

Discontinuities

Competence

Enhancing

Competence

Destroying

Organizational

Environment

Munificence

Uncertainty

Interfirm Sales Variance

Entry & Exit

Firm Growth Rate

Technological Discontinuities

• Competence-Destroying Discontinuities- Require new skills, abilities, and knowledge- Mastery of the new technology fundamentally alters the set of relevant competences within a product class

• Competence-Enhancing Discontinuities- Order-of-magnitude improvements in price/performance that build on existing know-how within a product class

Hypothesis TestingTechnology & Technological

Discontinuities

• H1: Technological change within a product class will be characterized by long periods of incremental change punctuated by discontinuities.

• H1a: Technological discontinuities are either competence enhancing (build on existing skills and know-how) or competence destroying (require fundamentally new skills and competences).

• H2: The locus of innovation will differ for competence destroying and competence-enhancing technological changes.

Hypothesis TestingTechnological Discontinuities & Organizational Environments

• H3: Competitive uncertainty will be higher after a technological discontinuity than before the discontinuity.

• H4: Environmental munificence will be higher after a technological discontinuity than before the discontinuity.

• H5: Competence-enhancing discontinuities will be associated with decreased entry-to-exit ratios and decreased interfirm sales variability. These patterns will be reversed for competence-destroying discontinuities

Hypothesis TestingTechnological Discontinuities & Organizational Environments

• H6: Successive competence-enhancing discontinuities will be associated with smaller increases in uncertainty and munificence.

• H7: Those organizations that initiate major technological innovations will have higher growth rates than other firms in the product class.

H5 Entry-to-exit ratio : partially supported

H5 Interfirm variance : well supported

Variation-Selection in the Innovation

Evolutionary Process

• Variation• Change from current routines and competencies

• Selection• Differential elimination of certain types of variation

• Retention• Selected variations are preserved, duplicated, or

otherwise reproduced

• Struggle• Contest to obtain scarce resources because their

supply is limited

Fixed vs Retractable

• Simple design• Reduce the risk of problems at landing• Create extra drag

• Increase the length of flight

Fixed vs Retractable

• Pants Type Gear

• Increase need of speed and need to reduce drag• Retractable gear was dominated

Technology Cycle

Discussion

• 지배적 디자인은 기업에게 어떠한 이익을 주는가 ?

Discussion

• 시장경제에서 지배적 디자인은 어떤 문제를 일으키는가 ?

• 지배적 디자인이 기술 발전을 저해하지는 않는가 ?

• CDMA 2300 여개 특허 보유• CDMA 모뎀칩 시장점유율 96%• CDMA RF 칩 시장점유율 88%

• Discontinuity 와 Continuity 를 나누는 기준은 ?• 생산 관점 ? 제품 관점 ? 고객 관점 ?

• Technology-Discontinuity 를 달성한 기업은 지속적인 경쟁우위를 창출할 수 있는가 ?• Apple 이 Technology-Discontinuity 적인 경쟁우위는 지속될

것인가 ?

• 스티브 잡스 사후 혁신성이 떨어졌다는 평가

Discussion

Discussion

• Discontinuity 를 이끌어낼 수 있는 product/process 를 유의미하게 predict 할 수 없는 것일까 ? Predict 할 수 있는 가장 빠른 시점은 언제일까 ?

• 비슷한 기술적 특성을 갖는데도 discontinuity 를 이끌 수 있었던 것들과 이끌 수 없었던 product/process 들의 차이점을 무엇일까 ? Technological, Market, Legal, and Social factors 의 패턴을 분석해 보면 어떨까 ?