Market Indicators

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT

Q3 2012

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HIGHLIGHTS 报告要点

宏观经济回顾MACROECONOMIC REVIEW

SHANGHAI RETAIL MARKET

零售物业市场

2012 Q3 Review2012年三季度回顾

2012 Q4 Outlook2012年四季度展望

Supply供应

Vacancy Rate空置率

Rental租金

文中所定义优质零售物业，意即购物中心，既包括通常所称的摩尔式购物中心，街区式购物中心，也包括建筑面积在10,000平方米或以上，拥有餐饮、零售及娱乐等多种业态的集中式购物场所，但未包括传统的百货商店。本报告以核心、内环及次中心商业区对上海零售商业商圈作分析。其中核心商圈包括南京路、淮海路、徐家汇、陆家嘴（包括新上海商业城）商圈；内环商圈包括内环以内除核心商圈外区域，另包括虹桥商圈；次中心商圈指中环以内，近年来新出现商业区，如大宁及五角场等。租金的计算一般基于实用面积的基础上，除了个别情况会另加阐述。

For the purposes of this report, ‘prime retail properties’ refers to shopping centers, including shopping malls, shopping podiums and all retail complexes with F&B, retailing and entertainment facilities having a gross floor area of 10,000 square meters or above, but excluding department stores. The city's various retailing catchments are divided for analysis into prime, inner-ring and decentralized areas. ‘Prime areas’ refers to East and West Nanjing Road, Huaihai Road, Xujiahui, and Lujiazui (including the New Yaohan area). ‘Inner-ring areas’ refers to retailing catchments within and along the inner-ring road as well as Hongqiao. ‘Decentralized areas’ refers to the emerging satellite commercial hubs such as Daning and Wujiaochang which are developing within the middle-ring road area but outside theinner-ring road. Rentals are quoted on a net area basis unless stated to the contrary.

市场指标

Shanghai’s retail market saw slower sales growth during the first half of 2012. By the end of June, the growth of retail sales of consumer goods had slowed to 9.4 percent year on year, less than had previously been expected. Both City Plaza and the Bailian Group’s department stores reported a decline in sales and customer flow in their interim results. However, with the forthcoming October holidays and the launch of several large-scale retail developments in the fourth quarter, the situation may yet improve as the year comes to a close.Grand openings of new malls One Prime and Agile International Plaza in the third quarter added 49,997 square meters of new supply to Shanghai’s retail market. Despite this new supply, demand remained robust and both the vacancy rate and the average rental rates for ground floor space across the market remained unchanged from the previous quarter.

2012年上半年，上海零售市场整体增速放缓。社会消费品零售总额的增幅下降至9.4%，低于预期计划。久光百货和百联集团旗下的百货公司都在其半年报中反映出销售额和整体客流的下降趋势。然而，随着十一假期的临近和一批大型零售项目在第四季度的入市，这个情况可能会在年末有所改善。

第三季度，壹丰广场和雅居乐国际广场的盛大开业为上海零售市场带来了49,997平方米的新增供应量。虽然如此，市场需求仍然强健，整体市场的空置率和首层商铺的平均租金仍与上季度持平。

The traditional department store sector continued to face a tough retailing environment in the third quarter as the limited retail format, relatively small scale and outdated positioning at some of these locations caused them to underperform. A number of such projects have responded by closing for upgrades and renovation. An example of this in the previous quarter was the closure (for renovation) of Huaihai Road’s Shanghai No.1 Department Store, a trend which continued into the third quarter with the closure (for renovation) of North Sichuan Road’s Shanghai Springtime Department Store.

Huaihai Road’s Novel Department Store announced that it would close in early 2013. The 10,000 square meter retail space will be replaced by clothing retailer Uniqlo in autumn 2013, making it Uniqlo’s largest global flagship store in China.

一些老牌百货商场在第三季度仍面临着严峻的考验。零售业态的局限性、相对较小的体量和过时的定位使其业绩表现欠佳，因此一些百货商场选择了闭门调整。上季度第一百货淮海店就是典型的例子，本季度四川北路上的春天百货也跟着歇业整顿。

In Hongqiao, there has been a major transition in recent months. Two new commercial zones are beginning to emerge: a high-end area around L’Avenue, ‘The HQ’ and the upgraded Hongqiao Friendship Store; and a mid-market area on Tianshan Road, centered around the Huijin Department Store, Parkson Hongqiao store and the nearby Hongqiao Tiandu.

近几个月，虹桥地区迎来一个较大的转变。两种定位不同的商业带逐步展现。一个是以尚嘉中心、虹桥城和升级后的虹桥友谊商城形成的高端商业带；而天山路的汇金百货、百盛虹桥店和虹桥天都则将构建成另一个定位中档亲民的商业带。

淮海路上的老牌百货“二百永新”也宣布明年初将关门歇业。这10,000平方米的零售空间由优衣库取而代之，计划明年秋季入驻，成为其中国最大的全球旗舰店。

Despite slowing after almost two decades of rapid growth, Shanghai’s economy still enjoyed a GDP year-on-year growth rate of 7.2 percent in the first half of 2012, to stand at RMB 955.22 billion for the six months ended June 2012. Of this, the service sector accounted for 60.4 percent of total output.

尽管上海经济在经历近20年的高速发展后增幅有所放缓，2012年上半年地区生产总值仍比去年同期增长7.2%至人民币9,552.2亿元。其中服务产业占总产量的60.4%。

Disposable income for the city’s urban residents continued to grow, driving increased demand for consumer goods. According to the Shanghai Statistics Bureau, urban per capita disposable income in the first half of 2012 rose 12.5 percent over the previous year to RMB 20,689. During the same period, retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 356.35 billion, a 9.4 percent increase over 2011.

城镇居民人均可支配收入的持续增长拉动了居民对生活消费品需求的增长。据上海统计局的数据显示，2012年上半年城镇居民人均可支配收入同比增长12.5%至人民币20,689元。同期，社会消费品零售总额达人民币3,563.5元，比上年同期增长9.4%。

One Prime 壹丰广场

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Figure 1 Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and Growth Rate图1 社会消费品零售总额和增长率

Source: Shanghai Statistics Bureau数据来源：上海统计局

Source: Shanghai Statistics Bureau数据来源：上海统计局

Figure 2 Shanghai Urban Per Capita Disposable Income and Consumption Expenditure Growth Rate图2 上海城镇居民人均可支配收入及消费支出增长率

SUPPLY, DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE 供应，需求及空置率

SHANGHAI | Q3 2012 | RETAIL

The openings of two major retail projects in the third quarter of 2012 released an additional 49,997 square meters to Shanghai’s overall market. The openings were divided between the prime and inner-ring areas, and included the launches of the retail component of Agile International Plaza in East Nanjing Road commercial circle and the retail podium of One Prime in North Sichuan Road area.

The retail podium of One Prime opened at the intersection of Wujin Road and North Sichuan Road, adding around 27,997 square meters of retail space to the market. The project is invested and managed by the AM Alpha Group, and has attracted more than 150 well-known international and domestic brands including Longchamp, Enzo, Godiva and Prolivon. One Prime benefits from a direct connection with Metro Line 10’s North Sichuan Road station.

The other noteworthy opening this quarter, Agile International Plaza, is situated in close proximity to People’s Square, in the center of downtown Shanghai. This four-floor high quality development has a total area of approximately 22,000 square meters and is Agile Property’s first commercial project in Shanghai. Located at the junction of Middle Xizang Road and Fengyang Road, and adjacent to No.1 Department Store and New World City, Agile International Plaza has positioned itself as a mid-market lifestyle shopping center, and has attracted well-known brands such as Tissot, Citizen and Designer Times.

Following the closure for repositioning of Shanghai No.1 Department Store on Huaihai Road in the second quarter, another traditional format department store on North Sichuan Road, Shanghai Springtime Department Store, closed for renovation at the end of July. Approximately 8,000 square meters of this is planned to showcase imported commodities.

Huaihai Road’s Novel Department Store announced that it would close in early 2013. The 10,000 square meter retail space will be replaced by clothing retailer Uniqlo in autumn 2013, making it Uniqlo’s largest global flagship store in China.

In August, the Hongqiao Parkson Department Store in Changning District closed their doors after its lease contract with City Center expired. Parkson renamed a nearby location (its Tianshan store) as Parkson Hongqiao. Following their exit, plans for City Center call for expansion of the mall by approximately 88,020 square meters and the launch of around 100,000 square meters of shopping center named ‘The HQ’ which is currently scheduled to open at the end of 2014.

On West Nanjing Road, Plaza 66’s rolling upgrade of both facade and brands continues, in line with the government’s intent to upgrade the West Nanjing Road commercial area. In July, French luxury brand Louis Vuitton re-launched its former flagship store at Plaza 66 as the ‘Louis Vuitton Maison’, an upgraded and redesigned format that offers custom service and a fourth-floor VIP area. This is the company’s 16th Maison worldwide but its first in mainland China.

Opposite Plaza 66, retail brand Esprit closed its nearly 1,000 square meter flagship store at Citic Square at the end of July. A new concept store from Hong Kong retailer I.T. is currently under renovation and plans to open in the three-story space in December.

Reel Department Store, also located in the West Nanjing Road area, continued its phased launch, opening basement level one in July, designated for cosmetics, fast fashion brands and accessories. Approximately 60 percent of the international

2012年第三季度开业的两个主要项目为上海零售市场新增了49,997平方米的供应量。新项目分布于核心商圈和内环商圈，分别是坐落于南京东路商圈的雅居乐国际广场和四川北路商圈的壹丰广场。

坐落于武进路四川北路的壹丰广场商业裙楼的开业为市场新增了约27,997平方米的零售供应量。由AM Alpha集团出资打造的壹丰广场，有超过150家国内外著名品牌进驻，包括Longchamp、Enzo、Godiva和Prolivon。商场还与地铁10号线四川北路站直接连通。

另一个新项目是临近上海市中心人民广场的雅居乐国际广场，零售总面积约22,000平方米，共四层，是雅居乐地产在上海的首个商业项目。地处西藏中路凤阳路，紧靠第一百货商店及新世界城。项目致力于打造成一个中端的生活购物中心，已成功引进了天梭、西铁城和名家时间等著名品牌。

继二季度第一百货淮海店歇业后，又一家老牌百货，位于四川北路上的春天百货也于7月底关门整顿。约8,000平方米的商场将转型经营进口商品。

淮海路上的老牌百货“二百永新”也宣布明年初将关门歇业。这10,000平方米的零售空间由优衣库取而代之，计划明年秋季入驻，成为其中国最大的全球旗舰店。

8月，位于长宁区的虹桥百盛因租约到期而搬离虹桥上海城。附近的百盛天山店则更名为百盛虹桥店。而上海城则将进行88,020平方米的扩建项目，之后将变身体量达100,000平方米的大型购物中心“虹桥城”。预计将于2014年底对外开业。

位于南京西路的恒隆广场为了配合不断升级的商圈扩容规划，继续对自己的外立面和品牌进行了全面升级。法国奢侈品牌路易威登于7月将其恒隆广场旗舰店升级为“路易威登之家”，店面重新设计改造，并在四楼设置了贵宾楼层。这是全球第16座路易威登之家，更是国内首家之作。

就在恒隆广场对面，位于中信泰富广场的Esprit旗舰店于7月底撤离，近1,000平方米的三层楼面将由I.T全新概念店取而代之，目前正在内部装修中，预计于12月开幕。

南京西路上另一家商场，芮欧百货持续其阶段性的开业。地下一层的化妆品、快时尚消费品和配饰已于7月开业。一层的国际高端精品60%已在本季度开业。引进品牌包括Hitgallery、法国户外运动Moncler、化妆品牌Bobbi

In August, Shanghai’s consumer price index rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier, slightly higher than national levels. Shanghai residents’ relatively high income levels lead to strong purchasing intent, and contributed to this growth.

8月份，本市居民消费价格总水平比去年同期上升2.2%，略高于全国总水平。上海居民的收入水平相对较高，购物意愿相对较强，对物价水平也构成一定的影响。

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According to Shanghai’s “Commercial 12th Five Year Plan”, annual retail sales growth targets 13 percent. A slowing national economy put pressure on Shanghai’s retail market, and the first half year performance looked insufficient to hit that target. Both City Plaza and the Bailian Group’s Shanghai department stores reported declines in both sales and customer flow in their interim results.

根据《上海商业“十二五”发展规划》，上海社会消费品零售总额增幅年均值为13%。上海经济增速的放缓同样给零售市场带来了压力，上半年的涨幅显然没有达到预期计划。同时，久光百货和百联集团下一些上海的百货公司都在其半年报中反映出销售额和整体客流的下降趋势。

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RENTAL RATES AND INVESTMENT 租金和投资分析

图4 上海第三季度优质购物中心分区入驻面积、空置面积和空置率

图6 上海第三季度优质购物中心首层及二层平均租金

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Figure 4 Shanghai Shopping Center Occupied Area, Vacant Area and Vacancy Rate by District in Q3Figure 3 Shanghai Shopping Center New Supply, Take-up and Vacancy Rate图3 上海优质购物中心新增供应，吸纳和空置率

Figure 5 Shanghai Shopping Center Ground Floor Rental Trend图5 上海优质购物中心首层租金

Figure 6 Shanghai Shopping CenterAverage Ground & Second Floor Rental Rateby District in Q3

SHANGHAI | Q3 2012 | RETAIL

Fast-food chain Burger King renovated a new Shanghai store during the quarter, on West Nanjing Road. The new location at Nanzheng Tower, comes after a July announcement that the company has entered a joint venture agreement that will see it expand its footprint in China to 1,000 stores in the next five to seven years.

The overall retail occupied area increased during the quarter. In July, American luxury women’s shoes brand Pelle Moda opened its first store in Asia at Xintiandi Style. In August, Swedish sportswear brand Bjorn Borg opened its first China store at City Plaza.

In the luxury jewelry sector, Tiffany & Co. opened its fifth store in Shanghai at Xujiahui’s Grand Gateway 66 in July. The ground-floor space covers approximately 214 square meters. Also in this sector, De Beers Diamond Jewellery opened its first store in Shanghai at the end of August, taking approximately 75 square meters on the ground floor of IFC mall.

New World Department Store announced the renaming of the Channel One shopping mall (which it acquired in November 2011) to Shanghai Hong Kong New World Department Store (Shaanxi Road Store), making it the company’s tenth store in Shanghai. The renamed Shanghai Shaanxi Road Store will continue its emphasis on youth trends and fashion.

Home Depot announced that it would close all seven of its remaining big-box stores in China, after “misreading” the market for do-it-yourself products. The closure and adjustment of its strategy to smaller, specialized stores and an online presence follows the path of consumer electronics retailer Best Buy’s China strategy. Though none of Home Depot’s big-box stores were located in Shanghai, the high-profile closure highlighted the challenges foreign brands may face when entering China’s retail market. Home Depot will reportedly keep its 170 employees in Shanghai and Shenzhen, who work in sourcing and in the company’s specialty stores.

Despite the new completions in the third quarter, the vacancy rate of the overall market remained constant at 10.2 percent. The opening of One Prime increased the vacancy rate within the inner-ring area from 15.6 to 16.7 percent. In the prime area, increased leasing activity at SDC Fashion Mall, which launched in the previous quarter, contributed to a decline in the vacancy rate, falling to 7.4 percent from the previous quarter’s 7.8 percent. The decentralized area’s vacancy rate remained unchanged at 9.2 percent.

快餐连锁品牌汉堡王在上海一新店于本季度开业。店铺位于南京西路的南证大厦。随着公司7月宣布签订合资协议后，汉堡王也开始了其扩张步伐，计划未来5至7年内在中国开1,000家店。

第三季度上海零售市场的整体入驻面积有所提升。7月，美国奢侈女鞋品牌PelleModa于新天地时尚设立其亚洲首家店铺。8月，瑞典著名运动服饰潮牌Bjorn Borg在久光百货开中国首店。

在奢侈珠宝方面，蒂芙尼上海第五家店于7月登陆徐家汇的港汇广场一层，面积约214平方米。8月底，戴比尔斯钻石珠宝上海首间精品店于国金中心底层隆重揭幕，营业面积约75平方米。

新世界百货中国有限公司欣然宣布其于2011年11月收购的上海调频壹广场正式更名为香港新世界百货─上海巴黎春天陕西路店，这是巴黎春天在上海的第十家分店。变装后的陕西路店延续潮的风格和时尚个性。

家得宝在发现其错误的市场定位后，终于宣布关闭其在中国的7家门店。跟百思买的战略相同，家得宝将在华业务重点转向专业和网上销售。尽管该品牌在上海并没有门店，但这一引人瞩目的歇业事件，使外资品牌进入中国零售市场所面临的种种挑战显得更为突出。另外，公司还将保留其研发团队以及上海和深圳采购办公室的170名员工。

第三季度，整体市场的空置率并没有受到新增供应量入市的影响，保持稳定在10.2%。壹丰广场的开业使得内环商圈的空置率从上季度的15.6提升到16.7%。同期，核心商圈的空置率则由上季度的7.8%下降到本季度的7.4%，主要归因于上季度开业的光启城时尚购物中心的签约租户数量的增加。次中心商圈的空置率同上季度保持不变在9.2%。

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Putuo Huangpu Pudong Hongkou Xuhui Changning Jing'an Yangpu Zhabei

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high-end boutique tenants on the ground floor have opened for business as of the third quarter. Tenants include Hitgallery, French outdoor sporting brand Moncler, cosmetics brand Bobbi Brown, and the first Stella McCartney store in China.

Brown和Stella McCartney在中国的首家直营店。

Accelerating success.

62 countries on 6 continentsUSA: 147Canada: 37Asia: 36Australia and NZ: 165Latin America: 19EMEA: 118

• $1.8 billion in annual revenue• 237 million sq m under management• Over 12,300 professionals

CHINA:

Shanghai16F Hong Kong New World Tower300 Huai Hai Zhong Road Shanghai 200021 PRCTEL +86 21 6141 3688FAX +86 21 6141 3699

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发布于 2012年9月25日

James Shepherd Senior DirectorResearch and Advisory ServicesCorporate and Institutional ServicesEast and Southwest ChinaDir + 86 21 6141 4315James.Shepherd@colliers.com

Date of issue: Sept 25 2012

Annie HounDirector | Retail ServicesEast ChinaDir +86 21 6141 3610Annie.Houn@colliers.com

MARKET OUTLOOK 市场展望

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SHANGHAI | Q3 2012 | RETAIL

With the forthcoming National Day and Christmas holidays approaching, and the launch of several large-scale retail developments in the fourth quarter such as Park Place on West Nanjing Road and K11 Art Mall on Middle Huaihai Road, Shanghai’s retail market may see high levels of activity in the run up to the year-end.

The total stock in the Shanghai retail market will increase in the fourth quarter. However, both the rental and vacancy rate seem set to remain stable due to relatively balanced supply and demand.

Competition in the Shanghai department store sector has been increasingly heated in recent months. Properties with relatively small floor areas, outdated positioning and limited retail formats have been struggling to adapt to Shanghai’s changing retail market and the evolving tastes of Shanghai’s increasingly affluent and discerning consumers.

Of Shanghai’s original 12 key traditional department stores (which are named by number, such as Shanghai No. 1 Department Store), only four have survived the relatively recent introduction of large-scale shopping centers and e-retail. The remaining department stores are expected to face continued challenges in the future if they fail to adapt and upgrade.

Options for these properties might include adopting a shopping center format, or entering the commercial property market, as Ikea, Suning, and Golden Eagle have done.

A significant amount of activity is forecast in the coming quarters for the Hongqiao area. District government plans call for the linking of Zunyi Road’s underground corridor with The HQ, L’Avenue and an upgrade of the Hongqiao Friendship Store. The three projects combined will form an emerging center for high-end shopping. A second, mid-market commercial hub is also forming nearby, centered around the Huijin Department Store, Parkson Hongqiao store and the nearby Hongqiao Tiandu.

随着国庆假期和圣诞节的临近，还有一批大型零售项目如南京西路的越洋广场和淮海中路的K11艺术购物中心即将于第四季度的入市，上海零售市场或将会于下季度有所回温。

第四季度上海零售市场的总存量将会增加。然而供需市场的相对平衡也会使市场的整体租金和空置率持续保持稳定趋势。

近来，上海百货商场的竞争持续白热化状态。对于那些体量相对较小、定位过时、零售业态又存在局限性的项目来说，已经很难适应上海正在变换的零售市场，以及日益增加的既有消费能力又有鉴赏能力的消费者。

十二家直接以号码命名的老字号百货商店（如上海第一百货商店）中，仅剩下四家幸存于当今众多大型购物中心和电子零售业盛行的时代。如果他们不能很好地适应这个市场，将会面临生存环境恶化的挑战。

面临困局，这些百货商场可能会采取的措施有进军购物中心，或者是涉足商业地产，就像宜家、苏宁和金鹰那样。

未来虹桥地区将会发生很大的变化。区政府对遵义路地下通道进行了规划建设，连廊将连接虹桥城、尚嘉中心和升级后的虹桥友谊商城。这三个项目也将形成一个新兴的高端商业带，而天山路的汇金百货、百盛虹桥店和虹桥天都则将构建虹桥地区的另一个定位中档亲民的商业带。

On the investment front, CapitaMalls Asia Limited established the US$ 1 billion CapitaMalls China Development Fund III in July. The investment mandate is reported to have a primary focus on the development of shopping malls and retail properties in China. One of the fund’s seed assets is the Shanghai Luwan mixed-used project on Madang Road, planned as a 127,750 square meter facility containing a shopping mall and office tower expected to complete in 2015.

In the sales market, a 98 square meter retail property at 989 Xikang Road in Putuo District was acquired by an undisclosed buyer for RMB 105,064 per square meter, the highest transacted unit price for commercial property in the third quarter. In terms of transacted unit volume, the Jinqiao area’s Green New World project led the market, selling a total of 13 units during the period at an average transaction price of RMB 18,001 per square meter.

在投资市场方面，凯德商用于7月设立总额达10亿美元的中国发展基金III，主要投资中国购物中心以及其他零售商用物业的开发。其初期资产包括位于马当路上的上海卢湾项目，这是一个涵盖购物中心和写字楼为的综合体项目，规划体量达127,750平方米，计划于2015年完工。

在买卖市场方面，普陀区的西康路989项目的一套98平方米的商铺以每平方米人民币105,064元的单价成交，创第三季度商铺成交均价的新高。而金桥板块的碧云新天地则以每平方米人民币18,001的均价售出了13套商铺，列成交套数榜首。

Despite the increased supply in the third quarter, rental rates for shopping centers held steady in the third quarter. Average rental rates for ground floor space across the market remained stable at RMB 39.8 per square meter per day.

尽管第三季度有新增供应量入市，购物中心的租金仍保持稳定态势。整体市场首层商铺的平均租金仍保持在每天每平方米人民币39.8元。