2012 Q3 Review2012年三季度回顾

2012 Q4 Outlook2012年四季度预期

Supply

供应

Vacancy Rate

空置率

Rental

租金

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT

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SHANGHAI INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY MARKET

上海工业市场

The Macroeconomic Environment 宏观经济环境

整理市场回顾Overall Market Review

Q3 2012

Market Indicators市场指标

The unstable global economic situation continued to affect China’s economy in the third quarter, reflected in shrinking growth of exports.

The central government took measures to counteract these external effects, including a cut to the bench-mark interest rate in July (the second this year), the promotion of tax reduction policies that may eliminate a business tax, and the approval of 25 major infrastructure projects, announced in September.

According to official statistics, net profits for China’s industrial output (above designated size) declined by 2.7 percent year on year in the first seven months of 2012. A Ministry official cited insufficient demand, rising production costs, and sliding sales prices as the primary reasons for this.

The Shanghai government has announced that it will continue the ongoing restructuring of its economy towards service industries and advanced manufacturing. The city plans to increase its investment in research & development and technological innovation, and establish a city-level industrial research organization.

Economic indicators suggested China’s manufacturing sector experienced weak performance during the period from July 2012 to August 2012.

The official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics, fell to 49.2 in August, the weakest reading for 2012 and down from April's 13-month high of 53.3. August was the first month this year that the official PMI has fallen below the demarcation point of 50, separating expansion from contraction. The HSBC China PMI, generally considered to reflect small and medium size businesses, has stayed below 50 for the first eight months of 2012.

Despite uncertainty in the global economic situation as a whole, the average rental rate in Shanghai’s industrial real estate market was stable during this quarter, amid stable demand from domestic occupiers and investors and continued supply limitations.

Average asking rentals for ground floor high quality facilities increased very slightly, to RMB 1.15 per square meter per day in the logistics sector, and to RMB 0.89 per square meter per day in the workshop sector.

Shanghai’s industrial land sales market was relatively active in the third quarter. A total of 2.88 million square meters of first hand land was sold during July and August, representing an estimated total permitted gross floor area of approxi-mately 4.43 million square meters. By contrast, a total of only 1.81 million square meters of land was sold in the second quarter.

Of the transactions that occurred, the weighted average accommodation cost recorded during the period was approximately RMB 360 per square meter, though prices ranged from approximately RMB 144 to RMB 2,496 per square meter. Transacted plots were primarily located in Fengxian, Jinshan and Qingpu districts, and Pudong’s Nanhui area.

The highest land prices were seen for a plot in Pudong’s Jinqiao area, a plot in Pudong’s Caolu Town and three plots in Minhang district, where bidding reached RMB 2,995, RMB 1,561, and RMB 1,078 per square meter respectively. The transacted prices indicated that higher end R&D or business park type developments are likely to be planned for such sites.

经济指标显示中国制造业在2012年七月至八月间表现疲弱。

由国家统计局发布的官方采购经理人指数（PMI）在8月跌至了2012以来的最低点，为49.2，而该指数曾在今年4月创下了连续13个月的最高值，为53.3。值得注意的是，今年8月的官方PMI读数首次位于50点枯荣线下方。以中小型企业为主要数据采集对象的汇丰中国采购经理人指数（HSBE CHINA PMI），在2012年前8个月的度数均位于枯荣线下方。

虽然全球经济前景并不明朗，但上海工业地产市场物业平均租金在本季度中保持了稳定的表现，主要原因是本地租户和投资者的需求保持稳定且市场供应任然处于受限的状态。

高端仓储物流物业首层租金较上季度微涨至每天每平方米人民币1.15元，同期高端厂房物业首层租金稳定在每天每平方米人民币0.89元的水平。

相比二季度共实现181万平方米工业用地成交的情况，上海工业土地交易市场在第三季度中表现较为活跃。仅在7、8两个月，政府通过招、拍、挂的方式共出让了约288万平方米的工业用地，合计计划建筑面积约为443万平方米。

本季度中成交的土地交易所对应的楼板价区间约为每平方米人民币144元至2,496元，所对应的加权平均楼板价约为每平方米人民币360元。成交地块主要位于奉贤、金山、青浦区，以及浦东南汇地区。

本季度中以高价成交的多幅地块中一幅位于浦东金桥地区、一幅位于浦东曹路镇、另有三幅位于闵行区内，土地成交均价分别达到了每平方米人民币2,995元、人民币1,561元以及每平方米人民币1,078元。综合考虑成交地价以及其他因素，上述多幅地块将可能被用于开发高端研发或商务园区用物业。

中国经济在第三季度中继续受到不稳定国际经济形势的影响，期间出口增速有所放缓。

为了应对不明朗经济形势的影响，中央政府自2012年7月以后再次采取包括降低市场基准利率在内的一系列宏观经济刺激政策。中央政府表示将加快“税改增”的税收制度改革以减少企业的税负负担，并于九月批准了25个主要基础建设项目。

国家统计局数据显示，1-7月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润较去年同期下降2.7%。相关人员表示，出现工业利润下降的主要原因包括市场需求放缓、生产成本上升和销售价格的下滑。

上海政府强调将继续深入推进经济向服务业、高科技驱动转型的进程。并计划将进一步加大在研究与实验发展和技术创新上的投资。

P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 高力国际

Figure 1: China Monthly PMI, 2012 图1： 2012年中国月度PMI走势图

Figure 2: Shanghai Cumulative Gross Output Value of Industry – 2012 Growth (YoY)图2： 2012年上海累计工业总产值同比增长率

Source: Shanghai Statistics Bureau数据来源：上海统计局

Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing数据来源: 中国物流与采购联合会

Logistics Sector 物流业

Transactions 成交情况

Market development 市场开发情况

SHANGHAI｜Q3 2012｜INDUSTRIAL

Supply in Shanghai’s logistics market remained limited during the third quarter. High-quality logistics facilities were typically fully occupied, and demand outstripped the amount of suitable first hand land available for sale. Logistics developers and would-be occupiers continued to move to nearby cities in the Yangtze River Delta, where both land supply and available facilities are abundant.

In Shanghai, the average asking price for ground floor premises in high quality facilities in a basket of cities bordering Shanghai rose slightly by one percent to RMB 0.89 per square meter per day. This basket includes Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Taicang, Jiaxing, Ningbo, and Kunshan.

The average asking price for logistics property grew 2.7 percent quarter on quarter to RMB 1.15 per square meter per day. The rise was primarily driven by an increase in asking rental of up to four percent in Pudong, Minhang, Jiading, Fengxian, and Qingpu districts. Asking rentals remained unchanged in Songjiang, Jinshan, and Baoshan districts.

第三季度中上海仓储物流物业市场供应依然受限。高端仓促物流物业基本上仍然处于满租状态，而目前的市场需求业已超出了市场的实际供应水平。仓储物流行业开发商和潜在租户持续在拥有更充分土地和高质量物业储备的上海周边城市中寻找合适机会。

包括苏州、杭州、南京、无锡、太仓、嘉兴、宁波和昆山在内的上海周边城市的高端仓储物流物业首层租金较上季度上涨约1%，平均租金达每天每平方米人民币0.89元。

本季度，高力国际检测下的多个上海仓储物流物业市场的平均租金环比上涨2.7%，达每天每平方米人民币1.15元。此番上涨主要是受到浦东、闵行、嘉定、奉贤和青浦区内的租金最高环比上涨4%的影响。而松江、金山和宝山区的平均租金较上季度没有变化。

Transaction volume in the logistics sector was reduced in comparison to the second quarter, with a limited number of completed transactions, possibly as a result of inadequate supply (as opposed to lack of demand).

In July, Guangdong Swire Cold Chain Logistics acquired approximately 45,457 square meters of land in Fengxian district at a total cost of RMB 23.56 million. The transaction indicates an accommodation cost of approximately RMB 271 per square meter.

Shanghai Yuang Chang Storage purchased a site of approximately 10,573 square meters for logistics use in Fengxian district for a reported RMB 4.62 million in August. The transaction indicates a cost of approximately RMB 436 per square meter of land and an estimated accommodation cost of approxi-mately RMB 292 per square meter.

Richemont Group, a luxury goods company, leased approximately 6,000 square meters of warehouse space from Goodman in the Shanghai Pudong Interna-tional Airport area.

Sinolog leased approximately 16,000 square meters of logistics space from an independent landlord in Songjiang district.

A local third-party logistics company servicing Bosch Siemens leased approxi-mately 10,000 square meters of logistics space from Blogis in Songjiang district’s Dagang area for approximately RMB 1.2 per square meter per day.

本季度中仓储物流物业的交易量较第二季度有所下跌，可能由于受到市场供小于求局面的影响，仅有少数几个案例成交。

太古冷链物流于今年7月以总价人民币2,356万元购入位于上海奉贤区的一块面积约为45,457平方米的土地，折合楼板价约每平方米人民币271元。

上海源昶仓储有限公司以总价人民币462万元购入同属上海奉贤区的一块面积约为10,573平方米的土地，折合地价约每平方米人民币436元，楼板价约每平方米人民币292元。

奢侈品公司历峰集团承租了嘉民集团位于上海浦东国际机场区域约6,000平方米的高质量仓储物业。

星络亚洲物流有限公司从私人业主手中租下位于松江区内的约16,000平方米的仓储物流物业。

一个服务于博世西门子的第三方物流公司以每天每平方米1.2元的租金承租宝湾物流旗下位于松江大港区域内约10,000平方米的仓储物流物业。

In July, FedEx Express expanded its operations facility at Shanghai Pudong International Airport. The new facility comprises an office and warehouse area of around 17,375 square meters, nearly 50 percent larger than the previous facility.

In July, with a reported investment of US$ 175 million, DHL launched a new North Asia hub at Pudong International Airport, creating the largest express hub in Asia.

The fourth phase of Shanghai Premier Enterprises Park at Fengxian district’s Spark Development Zone broke ground in July. The park has a total planned building area of 110,000 square meters. The park typically attracts companies involved in manufacturing, R&D, and warehousing.

Aurora introduced a new logistics center in Jiading District’s Malu Town. The new center sits on a site of 32,000 square meters, and provides Aurora with approximately 18,000 square meters of warehousing.

联邦快递（FedEx）于7月完成了其上海浦东国际机场操作中心的扩建工程。该操作中心拥有办公及仓储设施，总面积约17,375平方米，比原设施面积扩大近50%。

德国邮政敦豪（DHL）位于上海浦东国际机场的北亚枢纽于7月正式落成，新建成的北亚枢纽共耗资1.75亿美元，是DHL在亚洲地区最大的物流处理中心。

上海派米雷（奉贤）企业园区4期工程于7月正式开工。该园区位于奉贤星火开发区内，规划总建筑面积约为11万平方米。该项目以单层厂房（局部三层）为主，可满足生产型企业的生产、研发、仓储等需求。

震旦集团启用位于嘉定马陆镇的新物流中心，该中心占地约32,000平方米，将为震旦提供约18,000平方米的仓储面积。

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COLLIERS INTERNATIO 3 .P | LAN高力国际

Figure 5: Shanghai Average Workshop Rentals, Quarter on Quarter Growth by Sub-market图5： 上海各区块厂房租金及环比增长率

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Figure 6: Major Workshop Average Rental Rates in Shanghai图6： 上海厂房物业租金走势图

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

SHANGHAI｜Q3 2012｜INDUSTRIAL

In August, Goodman Group and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board jointly invested an additional US$ 500 million in Goodman China Logistics Holding. Goodman China Logistics Holding now has approximately four million square meters of logistics properties under development in China, and will reportedly commence construction on a further 800,000 square meters of new logistics facilities in the next 12 months.

GLP was also active during the third quarter of 2012. Several third-party logistics companies signed new lease contracts in GLP Taopu, the Pudong airport area, Hongqiao North and Waigaoqiao Park for a combined total of approximately 50,000 square meters. In July, GLP acquired Intel’s factory in Waigaoqiao, covering a land area of approximately 150,000 square meters. UPS Supply Chain has already leased approximately 5,000 square meters at this facility. Currently, GLP has limited space available for leasing in its parks located in the Shanghai. GLP is in the process of building up to 50,000 square meters of warehousing in Fengxian district’s Haigang area, which is expected to launch at the end of 2012.

In September, Shanghai Yupei Group confirmed that the company has fully leased all of its logistics premises in the Shanghai area.

嘉民集团与加拿大养老金计划投资委员会在8月宣布，双方共同注资嘉民中国物流基金合计5亿美元。目前嘉民中国物流基金在中国国内共有约400万平方米的在建仓储物流项目，据报道将在接下来的12个月中着手进一步建设约80万平方米的仓储物流物业。

普洛斯在2012年第三季度中表现活跃。有多个第三方物流公司与普洛斯达成租赁协议，分别承租普洛斯旗下位于桃浦、浦东国际机场、虹桥北以及外高桥的合计约50,000的物业。普洛斯于7月收购了因特尔位于外高桥的厂房，该厂房占地面积约150,000平方米。UPS已承租该设施内约5,000平方米的物业。目前普洛斯仅有有限的可供租赁物业位于上海。普洛斯仍有位于奉贤区海港地区达50,000平方米的高质量仓储物业在建设中，预计该物业将于2012年底投入使用。

截止九月，上海宇培集团位于上海的仓储物流物业均处于满租的状态。

Shanghai’s shift to high-end, high-output and high-tech manufacturing continued to be reflected in the industrial real estate market. Several industrial sites were acquired by companies involved in the new energy, bio-pharmaceutical and new material sectors. Notably, traditional manufacturing companies were also active in the land market in the third quarter.

Several multinational companies established or relocated their headquarters or R&D departments during the period. In July, polymer and fiber producer Invista opened its first textile application research center in Qingpu district with a reported investment of US$ 7.3 million. The new center covers approximately 3,000 square meters.

In August, Shanghai’s municipal government signed an agreement with China Ocean Shipping (Group) to further the construction of an international shipping center and stimulate further development of the ocean equipment engineering industry. Accord-ing to the agreement, COSCO will increase its investment in Shanghai, and make the city its base for logistics, R&D, and manufacturing.

上海工业产业向高端、高产出预计高科技制造业转型给市场带来的影响仍在延续。有多幅地块被属于新能源、生物医药以及新材料行业的企业购得。值得注意的是，在第三季度中传统制造业企业在土地交易市场仍然有着较为活跃的表现。

本季度中有多家跨国企业宣布在上海成立他们的区域总部或者研发中心。纤维材料制造商英威达于7月建成其位于青浦区的首家中国大陆的纺织应用研究中心，据悉该中心建筑面积为3,000平方米，投资总额达730万美元。

上海市人民政府与中国远洋运输（集团）总公司于8月在沪签署战略合作框架协议，双方将在国际航运中心建设、海洋工程装备产业发展等领域开展全面战略合作。根据协议，中远集团将加大在沪投资强度。把上海作为中远集团发展航运、物流、海洋工程技术研发和装备制造的战略基地。

制造业Manufacturing Sector

Figure 3: Average Logistics Rentals in Shanghai by District图3： 上海各区物流仓储物业平均租金水平

Figure 4: Average Logistics Rentals in Shanghai 图4： 上海物流仓储物业租金走势图

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

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Date of issue: Sept 26 2012发布于2012年9月26日

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*For the purposes of this report, ‘major workshops’ refers to a basket of workshops in the Baoshan, Fengxian, Jiading, Jinshan, Minhang, Nanhui, Qingpu, Pudong and Songjiang areas.*报告中所指“主要厂房”指高力国际取样跟踪的位于宝山、奉贤、嘉定、金山、闵行、南汇、青浦、

浦东和松江的厂房。

SHANGHAI｜Q3 2012｜INDUSTRIAL

PSG, a subsidiary of American company Dover, moved into its new factory buildings in Lingang Industrial Park during the period. This new produc-tion base covers approximately 11,000 square meters of production space.The third quarter saw two major manufacturers announce that they would begin to move their operations out of Shanghai. Baosteel, one of China’s largest steel producers, will move 30 percent of its production capacity out of Shanghai by the end of 2017. Geely Automobile, has also commenced migration of operations for its Englon brand to Hunan province.Major land transactions during this period included: Shanghai ShanShan Tech’s purchase of approximately 105,030 square meters of land in Nanhui for a reported consideration of RMB 30.99 million; AVIC Commercial Aircraft Engine Shanghai’s acquisition of 337,635 square meters of land in Nanhui for a reported price of RMB 101.3 million; and Shanghai Changxing Marine Hi-Tech’s procurement of 156,040 square meters of land on Chongming county’s Changxing Island for a reported price of RMB 101.64 million. Fengxian district was particu-larly active during this period, with more than 60 plots (totaling more than 848,000 square meters) of land sold. Major buyers came from traditional manufacturing, new energy, and new materials industries. The average asking rental rate in the workshop sector remained stable during the period, the asking rental for ground floor, high quality, workshop premises held steady at RMB 0.89 per square meter per day. In Puxi’s seven major industrial parks, the average asking rental rates for ground floor premises was stable at RMB 0.84 per square meter per day. In Pudong, the average asking rental rate for ground floor premises maintained around RMB 1.25 per square meter per day.

美国都福旗下百士吉泵业于本季度内进驻临港产业区。百士吉泵业的新厂房占地11,000平方米。

在第三季度中，有两家主要制造商宣布计划将旗下产能逐渐搬出上海。其中宝钢将在未来5年内，陆续调整和压缩上海地区的部分产能，预计调整任务完成后，上海地区将总量减少约30％。吉利汽车将把上海华普搬去吉利在湖南湘潭的基地生产。

本季度内主要土地成交案例有以下几宗：上海杉杉新能源科技有限公司以总价人民币3,099万元购得位于南汇的约105,030平方米土地，上海中航商用航空发动机制造有限责任公司以总价人民币10,130万元购得位于南汇约337,635平方米的土地，上海长兴海洋高新技术投资发展有限公司以总价人民币10,164万元购得位于崇明县长兴岛的约156,040平方米的土地。奉贤区在本季度中表现尤为活跃，共有超过60宗土地成交（合计成交土地面积超过848,000平方米）。购买土地的主力为来自传统制造业、新能源行业以及新材料行业的企业。

厂房物业平均租金在本季度中保持稳定，高端厂房物业首层租金价格维持在每天每平方米人民币0.89元的水平。位于浦西的七个主要工业园的高端厂房物业首层租金价格稳定在每天每平方米人民币0.84元。同期浦东新区内的高质量厂房物业首层租金价格亦稳定在每天每平方米人民币1.25元的水平上。

Shanghai will remain highly attractive to industrial and logistics operators and investors despite economic concerns. Certain traditional manufacturers will continue their relocation to other cities in the Yangtze River Delta area. Colliers International expects that rental rates for both workshop and logistics facilities in Shanghai will continue to grow. The supply of low grade workshop facilities will continue to diminish in favor of government policy driven higher end uses.

虽然宏观经济情况并不明朗，但上海对工业及物流业运营商和投资者的较高吸引力将会等到保持。而某些传统制造业将陆续搬迁到长江三角洲地区内的其他城市中。高力国际预期上海厂房物业和物流仓储物业租金水平将继续上涨。于此同时，受到高端客户需求和政府政策的共同驱使，低端厂房物业的供应量将日渐减少。

Regional News 区域新闻In July, Adidas announced that the company plans to close its only company-owned apparel factory in Suzhou at the end of October. Husky Injection Molding Systems has signed an investment agreement with the Suzhou govern-ment for 53,000 square meters of land in Suzhou New District. The company plans to build a manufacturing facility, with a reported investment of at least RMB 317 million. In the automotive industry, Dongfeng Yueda Kia Automobile Company started construction of its third plant in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. The project will officially begin operations in 2014. Toyota Motor Corp will establish a key parts factory in Changshu, Jiangsu in the coming 2014. Also in Jiangsu, Corning Incorporated and Samsung Display will establish an LCD glass factory in Wuxi, while synthetic rubber specialist Lanxess plans to spend US$ 600 million to build a new plant in Changzhou by 2015. IDS Group, a Hong Kong based investment company, leased approximately 6,000 square meters of logistics space from Goodman in Kunshan.

德国体育用品制造商阿迪达斯（Adidas）于7月宣布，将于10月底关闭位于苏州的其在华唯一直属工厂。赫斯基注塑系统有限公司与苏州政府签订投资协议，将在科技城建立苏州新工厂据悉，该公司在苏州科技城的新项目用地约53,000平方米，投资总额至少为人民币3.17亿元。就汽车行业来看，东风悦达起亚正式奠基其位于江苏盐城的第三工厂项目，据悉该项目将于2014年投产。丰田汽车公司宣布在江苏省常熟市成立丰田汽车零部件有限公司，并计划于2014年投产。本季度中，在江苏省内，三星和康宁将在中国江苏省无锡市新建一家TET-LCD工厂。同期德国特殊化学品集团朗盛宣布投资约6亿美元在中国江苏常州兴建橡胶工厂，该项目预计将于2015年建成投产。总部位于香港的利和集团承租嘉民位于昆山的约6,000平方米的仓储物流物业。