1

立法會財經事務委員會會議 Meeting of LegCo Panel on Financial Affairs

二零一八年十二月十八日 18 December 2018

香港特別行政區政府 Hong Kong SAR Government

1

香港經濟在第三季按年穩健增長，但增速減慢 Hong Kong’s economy grew solidly year-on-year in Q3,

albeit at a moderated pace

2

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

按年增減

Year-on-year change

經季節性調整後

按季增減

Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

本地生產總值

Gross Domestic Product

2.9%

0.1%

十年平均增長

10-year trend growth2.7%

3 3

外部需求第三季合計繼續錄得顯著增長；內部需求保持堅穩 External demand continued to grow visibly for Q3 as a whole;

domestic demand held firm

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

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Q12018

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

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Q12017

Q12018

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

貨物出口

Exports of goods

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

服務輸出

Exports of services

5.0%

3.1%

5.2%

本地固定資本形成總額

Gross domestic fixedcapital formation

私人消費開支

Private consumption expenditure 8.2%

Q12000

Q12001

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

較低技術勞工

Lower-skilled workers

整體

Overall

失業率 (%)Unemployment rate (%)

專業及管理員工

Professional andmanagerial staff

1.8%

2.8%2.9%

八至十月

Aug-Oct

4

註: 除整體失業率外，其他均為未經季節性調整數字。 Note: Not seasonally adjusted except the overall unemployment rate.

4

勞工市場情況依然良好 Labour market conditions remained favourable

1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8

0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9

1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3

1.3

1.1 0.9 0.7

0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7

0.8 0.9 1.0

3.8 3.5

3.3 3.3

2.7 2.5 2.4

2.2

2.8

2.3 2.1 2.1

1.4

2.0 1.7 1.6

2.4 2.4

2.8

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15* Q1 16* Q2 16* Q3 16* Q4 16* Q1 17* Q2 17* Q3 17* Q4 17* Q1 18* Q2 18*

其他

Others交通

Transport私人房屋租金

Private housing rentals食品

Food基本綜合消費物價指數

Underlying CCPI

(%)

七至十月

Jul-Oct 18*

5

各主要組成項目對基本綜合消費物價指數按年變動率的貢獻 Contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in the underlying Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI)

by major component

5 註： (*) 根據以二零一四至一五年度為基期的消費物價指數新數列計算。 Note: (*) By reference to the new 2014/15-based CPI series.

隨着經濟持續高於趨勢增長，消費物價壓力繼續增加Pressures on consumer prices continued to build up alongside sustained above-trend economic growth

按年增減率 (%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)

名義增長 Nominal growth

實質增長 Real growth

就業人士平均薪金指數 (2018年第二季) Index of payroll per person engaged (Q2 2018) 3.8 1.6

工資指數 (2018年6月) Wage index (June 2018) 3.8 1.2

家庭住戶每月入息中位數 (2018年第三季) Median monthly household income (Q3 2018) 8.7 6.1

最低三個十等分組別全職僱員的平均每月就業收入(2018年第三季) Average monthly employment earnings of full-time employees of the lowest three decile groups (Q3 2018)

4.2 1.3

6 6 註: (*) 不包括外籍家庭傭工。 Note: (*) Excluding foreign domestic helpers.

收入* Income*

工資及收入錄得穩健而廣泛的實質升幅 Wages and earnings registered solid and broad-based gains

in real terms

低收入住戶*數目維持在低水平 Number of low-income households* hovering at a low level

7

註： (*) Notes : (*)

低收入住戶是指每月住戶入息低於8,400元(二零一八年第三季市價)的住戶。當中並不包括所有均為非從事 經濟活動人士的住戶。 括號內的數字是其佔所有家庭住戶的比例。 Low-income households refer to households with monthly household income less than $8,400 (at Q3 2018 prices). This does not include households with all members being economically inactive. Figures in brackets are the proportions of low-income households in all domestic households.

(3.4%)

(4.6%)

(5.0%)

(4.2%) (3.9%) (3.2%)

(3.1%)

(3.4%) (4.0%)

(3.1%)

(2.4%) (2.8%)

(2.9%) (2.7%)

(2.3%) (2.5%)

(2.8%) (2.5%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

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Q32018

非長者住戶 (左標線) Non-elderly households (LHS)

長者住戶 (左標線) Elderly households (LHS)

經季節性調整的失業率

(右標線) Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (RHS)

百分率 (%)Percent (%)

數目 ('000)Number ('000)

8

2018年經濟增長及通脹預測 Economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2018

2018年11月公布的預測 Forecasts released in November 2018

實質經濟增長率 Real GDP growth 3.2%

基本通脹率 Underlying inflation rate 2.7%

整體通脹率 Headline inflation rate 2.4%

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9

本港住宅市場 Local property market

9

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

09/15 03/16 09/16 03/17 09/17 03/18 09/18

買賣合約數目

Agreements received按月升跌 (%)Monthly rate of change (%)

整體住宅售價

Overall flat prices住宅物業買賣合約數目

No. of S&P agreements for residential property

10 10

資料來源： 差餉物業估價署、土地註冊處。 Sources: Rating and Valuation Department, The Land Registry.

住宅物業市場自八月起出現調整 Residential property market has consolidated since August

11 11

市民的置業購買力指數仍然處於高位 Index of home purchase affordability remained elevated

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

供款與入息比率^ (%)Repayment-income ratio^ (%)

1998-2017年平均數: 441998-2017 average : 44

45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。這比率與

金管局公布的平均供款與入息比率不同，後者是新批按揭貸款申請人的每月償還債務與每月收入的比率。

The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median incomeof households (excluding those living in public housing). This ratio is different from the debt servicing ratio published by the HKMA, which is theratio of actual monthly debt obligations of mortgagees to their monthly income of newly approved mortgages.

註︰ (^)

Note : (^)

負擔較輕More

Affordable

負擔較重Less

Affordable

2018年第三季 : 約 742018Q3 : about 74

12 12

Q12006

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50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

住宅單位數目

Number of domestic units

未來三至四年可提供的私人住宅單位數目

Number of domestic units to be available in the coming three to four years

以上數字包括已落成樓宇但仍未售出的單位數目、建築中而且尚未預售的單位數目，及已批出土地並可隨時動工的項目。

運輸及房屋局。The above figures included unsold units in completed projects, units under construction but not yet sold by presale, and units from disposed sites whereconstruction may start anytime.Transport and Housing Bureau.

註︰

資料來源：Note :

Source :

中期住宅總供應量維持在93 000個的高水平 Total medium-term flat supply stayed high at 93 000

2019年經濟展望 Economic outlook for 2019

13

14

內地有政策空間支持經濟平穩發展 The Mainland has policy room to sustain

stable economic development

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-40

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0

10

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30

40

50

美國、歐元區及日本的進口需求

Import demand of US, euro area and Japan選定亞洲經濟體的出口

Exports of selected Asian economies中國內地的出口

Exports of Mainland China

以美元計價按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in US$ terms (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

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社會消費品零售實質總額

Retail sales of consumer goods in real terms

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

固定資產投資名義總額

Fixed assets investment in nominal terms

實質國內生產總值

Real GDP

10-1110-11

選定亞洲經濟體包括香港、印度、印尼、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、台灣及泰國。

Selected Asian economies include Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.

註：

Notes:

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18

核心個人消費

開支物價指數

Core PCE price index

1.8%

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

個人消費開支物價指數

PCE price index

2.0%

聯儲局通脹目標

Fed's inflation target

Q12010

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-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

按年增減率

Year-on-yearrate of change

環比折年按季增減率

Annualised quarter-to-quarter rate of change

(%)

3.5%3.0%

15 15

實質國內生產總值 Real GDP

通脹指標 Measures of inflation

美國經濟料可繼續增長，但受貿易摩擦影響，加上擴張性 財政政策的提振效果逐漸減退，增幅料會不及今年

US economic growth should continue, but likely to decelerate due to the trade conflicts and waning of fiscal stimulus

16

歐元區 Euro area

日本 Japan

歐日經濟增長預期將進一步放緩 Economic growth in the euro area and Japan expected to

moderate further

Q12010

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-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

按年增減率

Year-on-yearrate of change

按季增減率

Quarter-to-quarterrate of change

(%)

0.2

1.6

實質國內生產總值

Real GDP

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

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-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

按年增減率

Year-on-yearrate of change

按季增減率

Quarter-to-quarterrate of change

(%)

-0.6

0.0

實質國內生產總值

Real GDP

17

國際貨幣基金組織預測明年多個香港的主要貿易夥伴增長減慢 IMF forecast moderated economic growth in many of Hong

Kong’s key trading partners

3.7

2.9

2.0

1.1

6.6 6.5

3.7

2.5

1.9

0.9

6.2 6.3

0

2

4

6

8

2018年經濟預測2018 Economic Forecasts

2019年經濟預測2019 Economic Forecasts

年度實質增減率 (%)Annual rate of change in real terms (%)

美國

U.S.歐元區

Euro area中國內地

Mainland China

全球

World發展中亞洲

Developing Asia日本

Japan

國際貨幣基金組織2018年及2019年經濟增長預測IMF's forecasts for 2018 and 2019 economic growth

資料來源 : 世界經濟展望 - 2018年10月。

Source : World Economic Outlook, October 2018.

18

勞工市場情況理想，應在短期內繼續為本地消費帶來支持 Positive labour market conditions should continue to provide some support to local consumption in the near term

本地需求的下行風險已增加 Downside risks to domestic demand have increased 本地營商氣氛已更為審慎

Local business sentiment has become more cautious 本地資產市場出現調整

Local asset markets have consolidated

假若外圍不利因素對整體經濟環境的影響加劇，私人消費和投資可能會面對更大的壓力 Should the external headwinds exacerbate the overall economic environment further, private consumption and investment could be subject to more pressure

本地需求前景 Domestic demand outlook

19

視乎多方面的因素，包括整體經濟增長、本地成本壓力、各主要進

口來源地的通脹情況、國際商品價格等 Hinge on a host of factors, including the overall economic growth, local cost pressures, inflation of our major import supply sources, international commodity prices, etc.

早前新訂住宅租金上升的影響料會在短期內繼續為通脹帶來一些輕微的上升壓力 Inflation rate may still be subject to some mild upward pressure in the near term, due to continued feed-through of the earlier rises in fresh-letting residential rentals

美元強勢將有助紓緩外部價格壓力 Strong US dollar would help contain external price pressure

通脹前景 Inflation outlook

20

國際貨幣基金組織及大部分私營機構分析員 就2019年香港經濟的最新預測

Latest forecasts on Hong Kong’s economy in 2019 by the IMF and most of the private sector analysts

實質經濟增長率 Real GDP growth 2.3-3.0%

消費物價通脹率 Consumer price inflation rate 2.0-2.8%

21

環球經濟增長有所減慢 Slower global economic growth

美國與其貿易夥伴(尤其是內地)的貿易摩擦 Trade conflicts between the US and its trading partners, in particular the Mainland 美國與內地的貿易摩擦即時升溫的風險雖已紓緩，但仍有變數

While risk of an imminent escalation in US-Mainland trade conflicts has been reduced, the situation is still fluid

先進經濟體貨幣政策正常化；資金流向或會逆轉 Monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies; possible reversal in fund flows

英國脫歐、意大利的財政狀況，以及地緣政治局勢 Brexit, Italy’s fiscal situation and geopolitical tensions

2019年經濟前景面對的下行風險 Downside risks to the economic outlook for 2019

22

立法會財經事務委員會會議 Meeting of LegCo Panel on Financial Affairs

二零一八年十二月十八日 18 December 2018

香港特別行政區政府 Hong Kong SAR Government

22