Pres Michael Mei ETS July2013 - Center for Clean Air...

阿尔斯通集团 – 低碳技术领导者

梅报春 – 阿尔斯通中国公共政策总监

2013/7/24

发电设备和服务

Alstom电力

轨道交通设备和服务

Alstom交通

电力传输设备和服务

Alstom电网

Alstom可再生能源

三大业务跨越四个行业

Alstom Group presentation – June 2013 – P 2

© ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

全球领先 —综合电站

全球领先 —空气质量控制系统

全球领先 —水电

全球领先 —电力设施服务

Alstom的发电设备占全球装机容量的25%以上。

Alstom电力：全球电力设备领域的领导者

业务遍及全球市场 … 无论是新电厂还是装机总量



Alstom与可再生能源：三大“杠杆”

客户资产& 社会 3 levers of product &

portfolio

development

• Efficiency improvement

• Capital cost reduction

• Capacity Factor increase (Renewable)

• Lead Time reduction

• Competitive O&M

• Social & health impacts

• Renewable portfolio

• Natural resource optimisation

• Pollutants control (Sox, Nox, PM, mercury )

• CO2 emission reduction & CCS

• Land-use, Visual Impact, Noise

• Water intensity reduction & Recyclability

• Balanced Portfolio • Maintainability and outage

time reduction • Operational and Fuel

Flexibility • Life time extension and

power uplift • Designs and service for

improved availability • Climate packages



H J J

H Head Office

R Regional Offices

J Joint Ventures

W Wholly Owned by Alstom

Corporate

Power

Transport

Grid

J W

Beijing H Alstom (China) Investment Co., Ltd

Tianjin

J Alstom Beizhong Power (Beijing) Co., Ltd

J Alstom Yuli (Beijing) Disconnector

R

Shenyang R Shenyang Regional Office

J

W Alstom Hydro China Co., Ltd

R

R

J Xi’an Alstom Yongji Electric Equipment Co., Ltd

Kunming

Chengdu

R Kunming Regional Office

R Chengdu Regional Office

J J

J R Xi’an

J R Wuhan

R Wuhan Regional Office

J Wuhan Boiler Company Ltd.

J Alstom (Wuhan) Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd

SEC Alstom (Wuhan) Transformers Co., Ltd J

J Alstom (Guangdong) Switchgear Co., Ltd

W J

Qingdao

W Alstom Sizhou Electric Power

J Alstom Qingdao Railway Equipment Co., Ltd

J J J

W W W

Shanghai

J SEC Alstom (Shanghai Baoshan) Transformers

J SEC Alstom (Shanghai Lingang) Transformers

J Alstom Shanghai Instrument Transformers

W Alstom Grid China Technology Center

W Alstom Grid Enterprise Management (Shanghai)

W Alstom Grid (Shanghai) Co., Ltd

J J J

J W

J CASCO Signal Ltd.

J Shanghai Alstom Transport Co., Ltd.

J Alstom Shanghai Aohan Energy Recovery

J Shanghai Alstom Transport Electrical

Equipment Co., Ltd

Systems Co., Ltd W Alstom Technical Services (Shanghai) Co., Ltd

J R

W

W

W W

Guangzhou

R Guangzhou Regional Office Shenzhen

W Alstom Strongwish (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. Hong Kong

W Alstom Power Service (Hong Kong) Ltd.

W Alstom Power Generation Ltd.

W Alstom Hong Kong Ltd.

R Xi’an Regional Office

R Tianjin Regional Office Tianjin

Alstom Hydro Co., Ltd

Equipment (Qingdao) Co., Ltd W

J J

J

J

Wuxi

Suzhou

Yangzhou

J Wuxi Alumin Casting Co., Ltd

J Alstom (Yangzhou) High-Voltage Bus-Ducts Co., Lt

J Alstom Suzhou High-Voltage Switchgear Co., Ltd

J Alstom Disconnector (Wuxi) Co., Ltd

J

Dalian

J Dalian Pyung-IL Cariboni Power Line Products Co., Ltd

10,000 employees

34 legal entities R

W

Alstom Sizhou Boiler Auxiliary

Machinery (Qingdao) Co., Ltd

阿尔斯通在中国的业务分布 Alstom in China Presence

Alstom China Presentation – 2012

Main References - Power in China

• Pingwei III (Anhui) , 2x1080MW, Mar. 12

• Hami (Xinjiang), 2x660MW, Dec. 11

• Shentou (shanxi), 2 x 600 MW, Mar. 10

/ Pingwei II (Anhui)/Dabieshan (Henan), 4 x 600 MW STG SC

Three Gorges/三峡 Ling Ao/ 岭澳

HYDRO POWER 水电 • Guanyinyan (3 x 600MW), Dec. 10

equipment)

/ / Baoquan/Huizhou/Balianhe PSP (16 x 306 MW)

iaowan (6 x 780 MVA generators, with HEC)

BOILERS & ENVIRONMENT CONTROL 锅炉及环境控制系统

CFB

• Shidongkou No.2 Power Plant in Shanghai, 2x600 MW SC Boiler

/ SWFGD: Huaneng Weihai, Huaneng Dalian…

TURNKEY PLANT 交钥匙工程

• C Shajiao “C” (Guangdong), 3 x 660 MW

2x600MW SC

NUCLEAR POWER 核电核核电 •

•

•

2 x 1750MW STG for Taishan (EPR)

• 4 x 1000 MW Arabelle STG for Hongyanhe

• 2 x 1000 MW STG for Ling Ao 2

/ EDG: Taishan, Changjiang

/ 4 x 1000 MW STG for Daya Bay and Ling Ao

Why an Emission Trading Scheme?

The most cost effective tool to decarbonize

• Prices pollution

• The pre defined “Cap” (target) gives visibility to investors (utilities, industries)

• Cost effective market based mechanism

• Flexible design: addresses most polluting sectors (power, industry)

• Drive investment in innovation and low carbon technologies

• Generate resources needed to address climate change though the sale of allowances

Differences vs

carbon tax? Alstom Group presentation – June 2013 – P 8


Towards a global carbon price? Emission Trading Schemes popping up



World Bank Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR)

• The World Bank Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) provides grant financing and technical assistance for capacity building and piloting of market-based tools for GHG emissions reduction

Country Participants

Brazil Mexico

Chile Peru

Colombia South Africa

Costa Rica Thailand

India Turkey

Indonesia Ukraine

Jordan Vietnam

CCh

hiinnaa



Morocco

Al © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

tom Group presentation – June 2013 – P 1

Cap-and-trade programs differ in scopes and targets

California’s

GHG cap-and-

trade program

Regional

Greenhouse

Gas Initiative

(RGGI)

EU’s

Emissions

Trading

Scheme

Quebec’s

Carbon Market

Gross Regional

Product

US $1.9 trillion US$2.3 trillion US$16 trillion US$304 billion

GHGs covered All Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide,

nitrous oxide and

perfluorocarbons

All

Sectors covered Electricity and

Industry (2013),

ground

transportation and

heating fuels (2015)

Fossil fuel-fired

power plants

Electricity, heat,

steam production,

industrial sectors,

petrochemicals and

aluminium

Electricity and

Industry (2013),

ground

transportation and

heating fuels (2015)

Emissions Threshold 25,000 metric tons Fossil fuel-fired

power plants

generating 25MW

or greater

Any combustion

installation over

20MW; sector-

specific threshold for

other sources

25,000 metric tons

Target Approx. 17% below

2013

emissions by 2020

10% below 2009

emissions by 2018

21% below 2005 levels

by 2020

20% below 1990 lvels

by

2020

Maximum

Emissions

Allowance

Availability

394.5 million metric

tons (2015)

171 million metric

tons (2009)

2039 million metric

tons (2013)

63.3 million metric

tons (2015)

Offset limit s

8% 1

3.3% Some type exclusions 8%


Focus on China National ETS on its way

• 12th Five Year Plan (2010-2015)

• Pilots in 5 cities and 2 provinces

• Shenzhen (launched 18th June)

• Shanghai

• Beijing

• Guandong Province

• Hubei Province

• Tianjin

• Chongqing

• Covering up to 2.2 billion tons of CO2 over 3 years (2013-15)

=> About 25% China’s CO2

• 13th Five Year Plan (2016-2020)

• Planned launch of national ETS • NDRC currently laying the

groundwork

• National Registry system

• Emission accounting guidelines for:

- Power

- Aviation

- Glass + cement

- Iron + Steel

- Non ferrous metals

- Chemicals

• Offsetting mechanism

- Chinese Certified Emissions Reductions

(CCER)


Alstom Group pres ntation – June 2013 – P 13

Overview of China’s ETS pilot schemes


Beijing Tianjin Shenzhen Guangdon

g

Province

Chongqing Hubei

Provinc

e

Shanghai

Industries/ sectors Electricity,

petrochemical,

automobile,

public buildings

Electricity, Iron

and steel,

petrochemical, oil

and gas

production

26 Industry

sectors including

electricity,

electronics and

manufacturing

Electricity,

petrochemica

l, iron and

steel

Electricity,

heat,

chemical

engineering,

minerals

Iron and steel,

chemical

engineering,

auto and

electricity

Iron and steel,

petrochemical,

building material

and non-industrial

sectors

Inclusion threshold Annual emission

over 10,000 tons

from

2009-2011

Annual emissions

over 20,000 tons

in any year since

2011

Enterprises with

emissions over

10,000 tons

(2009-

11) and buildings

over 5,000 tons

(2009-11)

Annual

emissions over

20,000 tons

from 2011-14

Enterprises

with annual

emissions over

20,000 tons

from 2008-10

Annual energy

consumption of

over 60,000 tons

of standard coal

Industrial sectors

annual emissions

over 20,000tons

(2010-11) and

non- industrial

over 10,000 tons

(2010-

11)

Allowance allocation Free allocation

with small

amount of

auction

Free allocation

with small

amount of

auction

Free allocation

(initial stage),

paid allocation

(later stage)

Free allocation

with auction

where

appropriate.

Benchmarking

for mature

industries

Free allocation

of annual

allowances

between 2013-

15

Free allocation

(initial stage),

paid allocation

(later stage)

Shift to

benchmarking

when data is

available

Free allocation

(initial stage) with

auction where

appropriate. Free

allocation 2013-

15.

Trading parties Liable enterprises,

legal/ natural

person

Liable

enterprises,

market players

Liable

enterprises,

developers of

emissions

reduction

projects

Liable

enterprises,

GHG VER

project owners,

investors

Liable

enterprises,

organisations

and groups

Liable

enterprises,

participator fit for

CCER

management

measures

Liable

enterprises,

other eligible

enterprises,

organisations or

individuals

Trading products Spot

allowances,

CCER, Credits

of Beijing

offset

mechanism

Spot

allowances,

CCER

Spot

allowances,

CCER, Credits

of Shenzen

offset

mechanism

Spot

allowances,

CCER, Credits

of Guangdong

offset

mechanism

Spot

allowances,

CCER, Credits

of Chongqing

offset

mechanism

Spot

allowances,

CCER

Spot

allowances,

CCER

Trading platform Beijing

Environment

al Exchange e

Tianjin

Climate

Exchange

Shenzen

Emission Rights

Exchange

Guangzhou

Carbon

Emissions

Rights Trading

Exchange

Chongqing

United Assets

and Equity

Exchange

Exchanges

authorized

and

established

by provincial

governments

Shanghai

Environment

Energy Exchange

How does carbon pricing through ETS affect

investment decision and Alstom offering

development?

1 27

80 62

60

84

104

120 131

152

166

189

207

0

20

40

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mill

ion

to

ns

CO

2/y

ea

r

ALSTOM RENEWABLE POWER

ALSTOM THERMAL POWER

~25% p.a.

CAGR

Alstom Power: concrete results - CO2 reductions (cumulated for 2011, based on first year of operation values)



1,445 projects accounted covering 2002-2011

How does carbon pricing affect investment decisions?



• Drive investment in no and low carbon technologies for new build and trigger investment in retrofit :

• towards supply-side efficiency • towards mature technologies (ex: on shore wind) • towards R&D in tomorrow’s technologies (non yet mature), thanks to

expectation of high carbon price (ex: CCS, ocean energy)

• Low carbon technologies compete more effectively: technology choices

• May influence geography of investments

• Free allocation and carbon leakage prevention • Stronger carbon price

Carbon pricing and investment decisions Exemple of the EU ETS / EUA price

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

janv.-05 janv.-06 janv.-07 janv.-08 janv.-09 janv.-10 janv.-11 janv.-12 janv.-13

ECX EUA Dec Ahead

ECX CER Dec Ahead

Phase 1 Phase 2

Increased interest in

renewables and gas Increased interest in

CCS

Fuel switching from

gas to coal

Energy efficiency 1

2 3 4 Alstom Group presentation – June 2013 – P 17


Carbon pricing and investment decisions New technology improves efficiency and reduces emissions 1



Carbon pricing and investment decisions Supply-side energy efficiency

60% of the 2030 installed base still to be built

60% of Carbon emitted in 2030 will come from today’s installed base

Gas: +20 p.p in efficiency saves

33% CO2 emissions

Coal: +20 p.p in efficiency saves

40% CO2 emissions

Plant Optimisation: -5%

CO2

Turbine retrofit: -5%

CO2

Boiler retrofit: -3%

CO2

New plants

Retrofit

1



Source: CDC Climat, Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d’investissements des entreprises , Thesis of M. Herve

Mignucci, 2012 www.cdcclimat.com/IMG//pdf/12-01-25_these_morgan_herve-mignucci_version_finale-2.pdf Alstom Group presentation – June 2013 – P 20

Changes in attributable capacity over 2004- 2009 in EU+EEA

(additions, removals, net effect) in GW

Carbon pricing and investment decisions Fuel switching

2


http://www.cdcclimat.com/IMG/pdf/12-01-25_these_morgan_herve-mignucci_version_finale-2.pdf


































































Carbon pricing and investment decisions Alstom products development roadmap in Renewable Power

Geothermal

Offshore Wind

Haliade™ 150 - 6MW ECO 100

Solar Plants

Ocean Wave Energy

2015

Variable speed

Pumped Storage

ECO 110

Biomass

ECO 122

A CONTINUOUS NEW OFFERING PIPELINE

Legs:

Hydro, Geothermal

Biomass

2008 2009 2010 2011 Future

Hydro

Ocean Tidal Energy

2014

2


Carbon pricing and investment decisions Alstom offshore wind factory in France

2

• Carbon pricing schemes can be complemented by other climate policies

(ex Renewable target in the EU in 2020)

• We take these policy instruments as a signal for market development

• We determine our plans for capital investment and employment

• French offshore tender

• 4 factories to be built

• 4000 thousand jobs (direct and indirect)



Carbon price and implications for tomorrow’s technologies CCS development 3



Alstom development of Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

Pre-combustion

Alstom is developing several CO2 capture technologies to address new plants and existing installed base

Post-combustion

Integrated solutions

Oxy-combustion

• Advanced Amine

• Chilled Ammonia • New plants

• Retrofit

• CCS ready plants (storage covered with

partners)

AL

ST

OM

FO

CU

S

• Oxy combustion

• Chemical Looping

Combustion

3



测试完成

AEP Mountaineer 美国 - 58 MWth 冷却氨, 煤

EoN Karlshamn 瑞典 - 5 MWth 冷却氨, 煤

WE - Energie 美国 WI - 5 MWth 冷却氨, 煤

DOW Chemical Co. 美国, WV 高级胺 – 煤

Vattenfall Schwarze Pumpe 德国 - 30 MWth, 氧 – 褐煤

Total Lacq 法国 - 30 MWth 氧 – 气

Alstom BSF Windsor 美国 - 15 MWth 氧 - 煤

2nd Gen

DOE/ Alstom Windsor 美国 - 3 MWth 化学链 - 煤

Alstom Labs Växjö 瑞典 – 0.25 MWth Post C.-multi purpose

2nd Gen

RFCS EU - Darmstadt 德国 - 1 MWth 化学链, - 煤

TCM Mongstad

挪威 40 MWth,

冷却氨, 热点联合&炼油废气(RCC)

Alstom GPU Pilot (Mobile) 0.3 MWth

试运行

EDF Le Havre 法国 - 5 MWth 高级胺 – 煤

大型项目 (正在开发)

White Rose CCS Project 英国 - 426 MWe 氧无烟煤

示范项目

正在运行

CCM Mongstad (Gas Turbine based CHP) 挪威 – 280 MWe + 350 M Wth 冷却氨

Getica - CET Turceni 罗马尼亚 - >250 MWe 冷却氨 – 褐煤

Alstom碳捕获与碳封存技术的发展 (CCS) 3



Carbon pricing and investment decisions From gas to coal 4

Underuse or mothball of gas plants in

Europe

Investments outside Europe or in EU

Member States where carbon tax (UK)

Ex: Latin America

Increase of coal fired plant production

and consequence on climate change

mitigation



0

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Source: IHS CERA

High gas efficiency: 51.4%; Low gas efficiency: 46.8%. High coal efficiency: 38.1%; Low coal efficiency: 34.3%

10

20

30

40

50

60

2025 2027

Real 2011

euros per

metric ton of

CO2

Reference case (20% 2020 target with phase 4)

No supply intervention

UK effective carbon price (2011Eur/tCO2)

Price to enable fuel switching - High gas / Low coal efficency

Price to enable fuel switching - Low gas / High coal efficency

Alstom Group presentation – June 2013 – P 27 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or cPorrreect sorewnill taapptlyitoo nanytpiatrtliceula-r p0roj1ect/. T0hi1s w/il2l d0ep0en7d on-thPe tec2hn7ical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Carbon price outlook and implications for fuel switching EU ETS

Today EUA price c. €4

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