Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 · The immediate context for this work is...

Part V of the Planning andDevelopment Act, 2000

Housing Supply

A Model Housing Strategy and

Step-by-Step Guide

December 2000

Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000

Housing Supply

A Model Housing Strategy

and

Step-by-Step Guide

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Page

Part 1: A Model Housing Strategy

Foreword

1. Introduction and Statement of Purpose 12. Methodology and Assumptions 33. Estimating Housing Demand 64. Estimating Housing Supply 265. Social and Affordable Housing 426. Summary and Conclusions 54

Appendices

APPENDIX A: Specific Sections of Part V Addressed in the Housing Strategy 55

APPENDIX B: Population Data - Louth 56

APPENDIX C: Income Data - Louth 59

APPENDIX D: House Price Data - Louth 60

APPENDIX E: Annuity Formula 61

APPENDIX F: Summary Analysis of Development Plans 62

APPENDIX G: Revisions to Development Plans 64

Part 2: Step-by-Step Guide

1. Getting Started 12. Demand Analysis 23. Supply and Infrastructure 94. Social and Affordable Housing 145. Policy Response 216. Consult and Finalise 22

APPENDIX A: Annuity Formula - worked example using 35%affordability threshold 23

Contents

Part 1:

A Model Housing Strategy

This model housing strategy has been prepared by PA Consulting Group inassociation with Brady Shipman Martin, and Fitzpatrick Associates, for theDepartment of the Environment and Local Government.

The immediate context for this work is represented in the provisions of Part V of thePlanning and Development Act, 2000. The particular significance of Part V is therequirement that local authorities must develop housing strategies which address thehousing needs of communities, and which will form an integral part of theirdevelopment plans. Such strategies should relate to the period of the developmentplan. In addition, the provisions of Part V require that the community’s need forsocial and affordable housing should be interpreted as a material planningconsideration, which must be taken into account in the preparation of thedevelopment plan and related policies.

In order to ensure that the model housing strategy developed by the consultants wasgrounded in a real local government environment, County Louth was used as themodel county for the purposes of this study. In practice this meant that theconsultants worked with the three planning authorities within Louth (Louth CountyCouncil, Drogheda Corporation, and Dundalk Urban District Council). It wasacknowledged at the outset however, that the housing strategy developed by theconsultants for Louth would not represent the formal and final strategy for thecounty. Rather it would be understood as providing a key input to the final strategyto be prepared by the local authority and considered by the elected members.

FOREWORD

Page

Foreword

1. Introduction and Statement of Purpose 1

2. Methodology and Assumptions 3

3. Estimating Housing Demand 6

3.1 Background 63.2 Issues Considered 83.3 Assumptions Made 223.4 Conclusions Reached 23

4. Estimating Housing Supply 26


5. Social and Affordable Housing 42


6. Summary and Conclusions 54

6.1 Main Features of Housing Strategy 54

Appendices

APPENDIX A: Specific Sections of Part V Addressed in the Housing Strategy 55

APPENDIX B: Population Data - Louth 56APPENDIX C: Income Data - Louth 59APPENDIX D: House Price Data - Louth 60APPENDIX E: Annuity Formula 61APPENDIX F: Summary Analysis of Development Plans 62APPENDIX G: Revisions to Development Plans 64

Contents

The purpose of this document is to assist local authority officers who are responsiblefor the preparation of a housing strategy within their county or urban area. In orderto deliver on this purpose, and to provide a framework which is coherent andaccessible, we believe that there are four key questions which the model housingstrategy must address if it is to provide the reader with some clear direction andadvice. These are as follows:

• How should the overall need for housing within the local authority area, andacross different settlements within that area, be identified?

• How should the local authority plan to provide for this housing need throughthe development of appropriate zoning arrangements, and bearing in mindgood planning practice?

• How should the need for social and affordable housing be established,bearing in mind the particular provisions contained in Sections 94(3), 94(4),and 94(5) of the Planning and Development Act, 20001?

• How should the specific policy response to be adopted by the local authorityin relation to these issues be framed?

This model housing strategy has been structured around these four key issues.Responding to these issues will require planning authorities to develop skills in somenew areas as follows:

• a capacity to identify affordable housing need in addition to the moreconventional provision/facilitation of social housing;

• a capacity to plan for and manage mixed housing provision which avoidsundue social segregation;

• a capacity to identify a well reasoned and well founded percentage ofdevelopment lands to be reserved for the purposes of social and affordablehousing;

• a capacity to enter into agreements with builders and developers in relation tothe development of lands reserved under Section 94(4)(c) of the Act;

• a capacity to work with the private, voluntary, and co-operative sectors in theprovision of social and affordable housing.

_____________________________________1 Referred to herafter as the Act.

1

1. INTRODUCTION AND STATEMENT OFPURPOSE

Section 2 of the strategy outlines the methodology which underpins the documentand describes some of the assumptions which had to be made in order to progress thework. The purpose of the model housing strategy is to illustrate how Part V of the Actcan be implemented in a practical manner. Consequently some assumptions hadoccasionally to be made about the kind of data to be used in the analysis, and thetypes of decisions which are required to be taken, in order to progress the analysis tothe development of conclusions and a policy outcome.

Section 3 of the strategy assembles essential population, income, and house price datafor Louth and illustrates how the affordability criteria described in Section 93(1) of theAct can be applied to identify a forecast level of social and affordable housing need.This section of the analysis illustrates the manner in which decisions can be reachedin relation to Section 94(4)(c) of the legislation.

Section 4 of the strategy examines the zoning and planning implications ofdeveloping a housing strategy. The particular planning circumstances in Louth areevaluated and the implications of the housing need identified in section 3 areconsidered in the context of the sustainable development of the county.Recommendations are also made as to the optimal location of future housing over thecourse of the development plan.

Section 5 of the strategy draws together much of the previous analysis and presentsan overview of the development of a social and affordable housing policy for thecounty. This section of the document is necessarily forward looking and so makescertain assumptions about the likely housing environment in Louth over the periodof the development plan.

Section 6 provides a summary of the main policy issues to emerge from the analysisand the key points of action which have been established for subsequentimplementation.

Introduction and Statement of Purpose

2

In developing their housing strategies, local authorities will inevitably encountermany different circumstances and events, which need to be factored into the strategy.Some of these circumstances may be unique to an individual planning authoritywhile others may be more generic and will represent common themes which recur inpractically every housing strategy produced by every planning authority.

This model strategy is produced on the basis that there exists a sufficientcommonality of themes across planning authorities to make such a document bothmeaningful and useful. To the extent that specific issues are dealt with in this modelstrategy, they reflect the context of the three planning authorities in Louth and soprovide a valuable opportunity to illustrate how the general components of a housingstrategy can be supplemented with some additional features which are unique toLouth.

In all cases however, housing officers and other local authority officials involved inproducing a housing strategy will need to make certain assumptions about theenvironment in which they are working. It must be remembered that a housingstrategy is just that - a strategy which is influenced by a wider policy environmentwhich in turn reflects circumstances, priorities, and values within the county. This inturn implies a set of actions for subsequent implementation. In this sense of things,strategy sits between policy and implementation in a three layered hierarchy asshown in Fig. 2.1 below:

Figure 2.1: Linkages between Policy, Strategy, and Implementation

2. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

3

What is national government policy on housingand regional planning?

Policy

How should we interpret policy, identifypriorities, establish constraints, and search foralternatives?

Strategy

What specific series of decisions and actions willthe planning authority need to take to implementthe strategy over the (remaining) period of thedevelopment plan?

Implementation

In drafting a housing strategy therefore, officials will inevitably reach critical pointsin the thinking process where a position will have to be adopted on a particularmatter. Where the surrounding policy environment is either under-developed orambiguous, then some enabling assumptions will most likely have to be made inorder to progress the drafting process. Any failure to make some enabling assumptionon such occasions will only serve to immobilise the planning process and cause it toremain stalled, while attempts are made to discover some data or other evidencewhich might validate a particular course of action.

Occasionally, it may not even be clear that such data or other evidence exists, or thatit would further validate the particular position chosen even if it could be secured. Inpractice, officials working on a housing strategy will need to take a reasonable view(determined by the collective experience of the officials involved and their knowledgeof circumstances in the planning authority) on a number of complex policy areas. Insome cases it may not be possible to support the view taken by reference toobjectively verifiable evidence - rather it may be a pragmatic assessment made byofficials based upon available information and advice.

In developing the model housing strategy for Louth, account has been taken as far aspossible of available housing information and related data within the county.However, the model housing strategy is by its nature a forward-looking documentthat is concerned, amongst other things, to develop an approach to dealing with"affordable housing" as a new feature of public policy in Ireland. Consequently, thereis no established pattern or history of affordable housing which the model strategycan draw upon to establish best practice lessons. Equally, it is expected that a keyconsequence of Part V will be to involve planning authorities as facilitators ofindependently produced housing (through the private, voluntary, or co-operativesectors) as opposed to their more traditional role as direct providers of social housing.

This model housing strategy identifies the key issues to be factored into the analysisand deals with them as follows:

• an analysis - based on historical and available data - of the demand forhousing in Louth including social and affordable housing. This analysis hasbeen designed to assist planning authorities to identify the affordable housingdemand they are likely to encounter each year over the life of thedevelopment plan;

• an analysis - based on historical and available data - of available land,zonings, and planning considerations in Louth. This analysis has beendesigned to assist planning authorities to identify the availability of zonedland and the need for any additional zoning over the life of the developmentplan;

• an analysis - based on a recommended series of future actions - of how socialand affordable housing could be managed in Louth. This section of the modelhousing strategy is somewhat more intuitive, as the document cannot

Methodology and Assumptions

4

realistically anticipate or simulate the future planning decisions which will bemade in Louth under Part V. Some assumptions are made in order to facilitatethe progress of the commentary.

Finally, it should be noted that Louth itself exhibits a number of uniquefeatures - population migration from Dublin, ready access to developingDublin/Belfast infrastructure - which is not shared in other counties. Officialselsewhere will need to remove these Louth specific features from their ownanalysis, and will in turn need to consider whether some alternative features- unique to their own authority - should replace them.

Methodology and Assumptions

5

3.1 BACKGROUND

3.1.1 Objectives

Section 94(3)(b) of the Act requires planning authorities to ensure that housingis available for persons who have different levels of income. In addition to re-affirming the provisions of the Housing Act, 1988, Section 94(4)(c) of the Actrequires planning authorities to provide for social and affordable housing byreserving a percentage of land zoned for residential use, or for a mixture ofresidential and other use. Elsewhere, in Section 93(1), the Act defines housingaffordability in relation to the capacity of eligible persons to service amortgage based on a defined level of income and loan to value ratio.

In accordance with Section 94(1)(e) of the Act, this housing strategy has beenprepared as a joint strategy between Louth County Council, DroghedaCorporation, and Dundalk Urban District Council. Reference to the "planningauthority" throughout this document should be read as a reference to the threeplanning authorities in the county.

In order to comply with these and other provisions of Part V, an analysis ofpopulation, household formations, income trends, and house prices in thecounty is presented in this section. This analysis forms the basis for thesubsequent development of the strategy. An essential part of this analysis is anassessment of housing need and affordability over the life of the developmentplan. Key inputs to the analysis are county-level estimates of population,household size, household income, and house prices, which are used to makea determination on housing affordability within the county. The approachadopted is summarised below:

• Project the number of expected household formations in the county forthe period from 2000 to 2006. This involves an analysis of populationgrowth (both natural increase and migration inflows to the county)and trends in household size. Together these factors are combined togenerate a forecast of household numbers over the life of thedevelopment plan. This analysis culminates in the data presented inTable 3.1.

• Project the levels and distribution of household disposable incomesacross these households over the period in question. This involves theapplication of available national income data to Louth and thecharacterisation of different income groupings across householdswithin the county. This analysis culminates in the data presented inTable 3.2.

3. ESTIMATING HOUSING DEMAND

6

• Project the levels and distributions of house prices over the period.The rate of house price inflation is assessed using available data fromthe Department of the Environment & Local Government. Adistribution of house price bands is then constructed which is matchedup with the above-mentioned household income bands. This analysisculminates in the data presented in Table 3.3.

• Assess housing affordability in the county over the period. This is akey part of the analysis, and is summarised in section 3.4 -"Conclusions Reached". This analysis forms an important link into thesocial and affordable housing analysis undertaken in section 5 of thestrategy.

3.1.2 Approach

The approach to this task depends on a number of factors. Availability ofrelevant data is a major consideration in determining the precision andreliability of any analysis. Equally, the depth of the analysis depends onmethods currently adopted for assessing "social" housing needs within thecounty. The structure of the analysis however is flexible and allows for theintroduction of new or updated information that may become availableduring the course of implementation. Such flexibility will be required over thelife of the development plan in order to take account of changingcircumstances.

3.1.3 Method and Sources

In preparing the strategy, reference was made to the following relevant andavailable data sets:

• CSO Census of Population and household number figures;

• National population projections (CSO) over the period in question;

• The Strategic Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area, andtheir update;

• CSO figures on Household Incomes broken down by region andcounty;

• ESRI projections of national disposable income growth rates over theperiod;

• Department of the Environment and Local Government data on housecompletions, house prices, and house price distributions for CountyLouth;

Estimating Housing Demand

7

• National house price projections included in The Housing Market inIreland: An Economic Evaluation of Trends and Prospects (June 2000).

Where data was available on a national basis only, enabling assumptionswere necessarily made regarding how - if at all - the position in Louthdeparted from national trends. In all cases where standard nationalprojections (either in population, incomes or prices) were used, care was takento make whatever adjustment might render the data-set more appropriate tothe particular circumstances of Louth.

Notwithstanding this issue of the application of (adjusted) national data to thecounty specific context, a principal concern throughout the preparation of thisstrategy has been that all available data-sets should be identified andaccessed, and that any inference or interpretation drawn from that datashould be clearly stated, well reasoned, and well founded. In relation to houseprice data in particular, planning authorities should construct their ownforecasts of house price trends in the light of experience and localcircumstances. Planning authorities should obtain data regarding local pricelevels and trends from local auctioneering sources and lending institutions asthere will be potentially significant variations in house prices betweendifferent areas and different segments of the market e.g. prices for first timepurchasers (i.e. that segment of the market which are likely to be most in needof affordable housing) tend to be well below average house prices which alsoreflect prices paid for other more expensive properties.

3.2 ISSUES CONSIDERED

3.2.1 Population Projections

The 1996 Census of Population, showed that there were 92,166 inhabitants inCounty Louth at that time. The following factors are relevant to making anassessment of the likely annual change in this population to 2006:

1. Recent house completions and household planning permissions datafrom the Department of the Environment and Local Government, andfrom the planning authorities in Louth provide indications of currenttrends in the county.

2. The Strategic Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area providepopulation projections and targets for the period to 2012, in respect ofcounties Meath, Wicklow, Kildare and Dublin.

Table B.1 in Appendix B sets out relevant demographic trends in Louth overthe ten year period up to 1996. The data show that since 1986, Louth'spopulation fell slightly up to 1991, and increased again between 1991 and1996. However, converse trends were behind these changes. Over the entire


8

period, births exceeded deaths and so there was a natural increase, butequally during this time there was also net migration outwards. The balancebetween these two factors has impacted on the overall direction ofpopulation. The data also reveal that the rate of natural increase fell slightlyover the period, in line with the State as a whole. The rate of external net-migration also fell, and much more sharply than that of natural increase.

Table B.2 in Appendix B shows recent house completions and planningpermissions for new residential dwellings in the county.

3.2.2 Household Sizes and Numbers

In order to translate population projections into numbers of households it wasnecessary to make an assessment of average household size. Table B.3 inAppendix B shows the recent trend in average private household sizes inLouth. The figure fell from 3.76 persons in 1981, to 3.21 persons in 1996. Thisdecline is in line with the State as a whole, where Irish household sizes havebeen moving towards EU averages which have traditionally been notablylower.

Informed opinion suggests that household sizes in Ireland will continue todecline on average over the foreseeable future. At present they remain aboveEU average levels by a significant margin. The Strategic Planning Guidelines forthe Greater Dublin Area predict that average household sizes in the GreaterDublin Area will decrease from 3.1 in 1996 to 2.5 by 2011. This suggests anannual decrease in the average household size of 0.04. On this basis therefore,it has been assumed that the annual rate of decline will be similar in Louth(although beginning at a higher level). In the absence of any official censusdata since 1996, likely trends in household numbers and population in Louthsince 1996 have been modelled based on observed house completions and theassumptions stated above regarding average household sizes. The resultsderived from this modelling process represent an approximation of the likelyout-turn to 1999. This information is shown in Appendix B, Table B.4.

Table B.4 presents an estimated 1999 population figure for Louth of 99,013.This estimate has been based on observed house completions since 1996, anda reasonable assumption regarding average household size. The resultsuggests that Louth has experienced high population growth over the period.In order to project the population up to the year 2006, the rate of naturalincrease was also estimated. This data was compared with observedhousehold completions and resulting population trends, and was thenadjusted to take account of migration assumptions.

Table B.1 shows that the rate of population natural increase fell from 6.69(annually, per 1,000 average population) between 1986 and 1991, to 4.89between 1991 and 1996. It has been assumed that this rate of decline will be


9

maintained into the future (i.e. between 1996 and 2001 the rate will fall to 3.59,and between 2001 and 2006 it will fall to 2.63). This corresponds with the 27%fall in the rates which has occurred between each intercensal period from 1986to 1996). Table B.5 in Appendix B sets out the results of this analysis. Estimatesof average household size have been introduced into the table to facilitate aprojection of total (and additional) households over each year of the planningperiod.

A comparison of Tables B.5 and B.4 indicates that the observed populationseems to be increasing much faster than the rate of natural increase wouldsuggest. Between 1996 and 1999, Louth's natural increase is estimated to havebeen just below 1,000 persons in total. However, Table B.4 which has beenprepared on the basis of observed house completions, sets the equivalentincrease at 6,847. The clear implication for housing analysis in Louth is thattraditional outward migration has turned to net population inflows into thecounty - and that this has been occurring at a high rate.

As a further check on population growth, it has been assumed that averageannual house completions between 1996 and 1999 (1,228) will continue up to2006. This assumption reveals a picture of a population growing very rapidlydue almost entirely to inward migration. Table 3.1 presents the resulting data.

Table 3.1 Adjusted Household Numbers and Population Forecasts – Louth


10

Year Household Additional Average PopulationNumbers Households Household Size

1996 28,712 969 3.21 92,166

1997 29,681 1,191 3.17 94,089

1998 30,872 1,171 3.13 96,630

1999 32,043 1,581 3.09 99,013

2000 33,624 1,228 3.05 102,554

2001 34,852 1,228 3.01 104,905

2002 36,080 1,228 2.97 107,158

2003 37,308 1,228 2.93 109,313

2004 38,536 1,228 2.89 111,369

2005 39,764 1,228 2.85 113,328

2006 40,992 1,228 2.81 115,188

3.2.3 Household Incomes

In order to incorporate income levels into the housing strategy it has beennecessary to establish annual distributions for Louth over the period to 2006.Income distributions (i.e. the proportions of households in certain incomegroups) as opposed to averages have been established. This has been done soas to facilitate comparison with price distributions, which in turn provides foran assessment of affordability by reference to income groups. The incomedistribution for Louth was developed as follows:

• The CSO Household Budget Survey was used to find a nationalhousehold income distribution (for 1994/95). This distribution issignificant as income levels are a key determinant of affordability asset out in Section 93(1) of the Act. It is important therefore to identifythe distribution of incomes across households, as the households atthe bottom end of this distribution are those most likely to experienceaffordability difficulties.

• This distribution was then adjusted on the basis of assumptions madeabout the gap between Louth and national levels of householdincome. CSO data on county-level household incomes was used as thebasis for adjustment. This adjustment enabled the production of anincome distribution table for Louth on the basis that the distribution ofincomes across the county (once adjusted by the average deflatorshown in the note to Table C.2) mirrors the national trend.

• The derived income distribution was inflated by assumed rates ofhousehold income growth. These rates of growth were based upon theDisposable Income Inflator data available from the Economic andSocial Research Institute. This facilitated the forecast householdincome distribution over the life of the development plan (Table 3.3).

A representative national distribution of gross and disposable incomes (grossincome less income tax and pay related social insurance) is provided in the1994/95 Household Budget Survey. Disposable income in this contextcorresponds with the income definition set out at Section 93(1) of the Act.Table C.1 in Appendix C presents this national distribution across 10 incomedeciles, and the equivalent annual disposable income.

Table C.2 in Appendix C adjusts this national picture to reflect the situation inLouth. This adjustment was based on the "Household Incomes Regions andCounties 1991-1997", CSO publication. Two features of particular importanceemerge from this adjustment:


11

• the differential between Louth and national disposable householdincomes in 1994 and 1995; and

• the trend in this differential between 1991 and 1997.

Between 1991 and 1997, household income in Louth fluctuated between 96.5%and 97.4% of the national average. Based on this understanding an estimatedincome distribution for Louth was created and is presented in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2 Estimated Distribution of Household Disposable Incomes in County Louth, 1995

The final column shows the estimated number of households in Louth whichhave an average household income as shown in the column immediately tothe left. To facilitate further analysis, this income projection was extrapolatedforward over the period of the development plan and is shown in Table 3.3.


12

Income Weekly % of Average Louth Average No. ofRange Disposable Households Annual Deflator Annual Households

Income in each Disposable Disposable in Louth,(IR£) Category Household Household 1995

Income Income (National) (IR£) (Louth) (IR£)

1 2 3 4 5

(Col 2*Col 3) (27690*(Col 1 /100))

1st Decile <£77.92 11.57 3,263.00 0.973 3,174.90 3,204

2nd Decile <£121.60 10.54 5,109.00 0.973 4,971.06 2,918

3rd Decile <£154.70 9.48 6,959.68 0.973 6,771.77 2,625

4th Decile <£206.39 9.60 9,033.44 0.973 8,789.54 2,658

5th Decile <£268.76 9.74 11,188.32 0.973 10,886.24 2,697

6th Decile <£340.89 9.56 13,730.08 0.973 13,359.37 2,647

7th Decile <£425.89 9.81 16,723.20 0.973 16,271.67 2,716

8th Decile <£524.18 9.58 19,989.32 0.973 19,449.61 2,653

9th Decile <£698.69 9.78 24,435.84 0.973 23,776.07 2,708

10th Decile >£698.69 10.35 36,156.12 0.973 35,179.90 2,864

Total 100 27,690

Table 3.3 Household Income Distribution – Louth, 1995-2006

Note: The 1995 figures are as shown in Table 3.2 and are based on CSO 1994/95 Household Budget

Survey. The percentage growth factors for income are taken from the ESRI's Medium Term

Review projections for national disposable income growth up to 2006.

3.2.4 House Prices

A quantified assessment of housing affordability must inevitably correlateestimated incomes with appropriate house price data. The price data used inthis analysis has been based upon the system of data collection currentlyoperated by the Department of the Environment and Local Government andit has been assumed that it provides a sufficiently "representative" fit forLouth. The following analysis presents,

(a) the estimated distribution of house price data for Louth (in 1999prices), based upon the Department’s data system;


13

AverageAnnualDisposable Disposable Income 1996 – 2006 (IR£)Household Income(Louth)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

% 10.5 13.9 13.5 10.6 9.1 7.3 7.8 7.8 7.7 8.0 7.2growth

3,175 3,508 3,996 4,535 5,016 5,473 5,872 6,330 6,824 7,349 7,937 8,509

4,971 5,493 6,257 7,101 7,854 8,569 9,194 9,911 10,684 11,507 12,428 13,322

6,772 7,483 8,523 9,674 10,699 11,672 12,525 13,502 14,555 15,675 16,929 18,148

8,790 9,712 11,062 12,556 13,887 15,151 16,257 17,525 18,891 20,346 21,974 23,556

10,886 12,029 13,701 15,551 17,199 18,765 20,134 21,705 23,398 25,200 27,215 29,175

13,359 14,762 16,814 19,084 21,107 23,028 24,709 26,636 28,713 30,924 33,398 35,803

16,272 17,980 20,479 23,244 25,708 28,047 30,095 32,442 34,973 37,666 40,679 43,608

19,450 21,492 24,479 27,784 30,729 33,525 35,973 38,779 41,803 45,022 48,624 52,125

23,776 26,273 29,924 33,964 37,564 40,983 43,975 47,405 51,102 55,037 59,440 63,720

35,180 38,874 44,277 50,255 55,582 60,640 65,066 70,141 75,613 81,435 87,949 94,282

(b) the value ranges projected forward based on assumptions about thedirection of house prices. (For this exercise house price forecasts, on anational basis, derived from the report, The Housing Market in Ireland:An Economic Evaluation of Trends and Prospects, were used - see TableD.3 in Appendix D. Local authorities, including Louth CountyCouncil, will have to construct their own forecasts of house pricetrends in the light of experience and local circumstances). Thisprovides an overview of the assumed price growth of the assumedtotal housing stock, but retained in various price categories;

(c) the distribution of annual total household numbers across theseforecast value ranges (assuming the overall value distribution remainsconstant).

The outcome of this analysis is a projected annual overview of the estimatednumbers of Louth housing units grouped within gradually increasing priceranges. Table D.1 in Appendix D opens this analysis by comparing theaverage price of a house in Louth and the State as a whole over the years 1995-1999.

During this period, the price of an average house in the State increased by96.9%. In Louth the increase was 97.5%, and validates the belief that pricetrends in Louth could reasonably be expected to mirror national trends in theshort to medium term.

Drawing upon the house price and distribution data available from theDepartment of the Environment and Local Government, Table D.2 inAppendix D has been prepared to show the estimated proportions of allhouses in Louth which fall within a given value distribution. A pricedistribution across various house bands was calculated using average houseprices over the 5-year period, 1995 to 1999. Using the 1999 price band as thestarting point, each price band was deflated using the relevant annual priceincrease, going back to 1995. An average proportion of households was thencalculated in each of the relevant house price bands.

This distribution of house prices - combined with a correspondingdistribution of incomes - facilitates an assessment of the number of newhousehold formations, which are likely to encounter affordability problems.To structure this analysis over the period of the development plan however, itis necessary to develop similar house price band data for each year of theanalysis. This data is developed and presented in Table D.3 in Appendix Dand Table 3.4 which show the anticipated rate of house price increase over theperiod 2000 to 2005, and the implications of this inflation for the house priceband structure. Both new and second-hand price increases have been factoredinto an average increase as the analysis presented addresses the assumedentire housing stock, and not just new developments. This is consistent withthe requirement that the housing strategy should have regard to the totalhousing position in the county. The resulting data structure provides the basisfor the housing affordability analysis which follows.


14


15

Tab

le 3

.4

Hou

se P

rice

Ban

d I

nfl

atio

n

Year

Ave

rage

pri

ceP

rice

ban

d (

IR£)

incr

ease

(%)

1999

Up

to 5

0,00

050

,000

to70

,000

to90

,000

to11

0,00

0 to

130,

000

to15

0,00

0 to

170,

000

to19

0,00

0 to

Gre

ater

than

70,0

0090

,000

110,

000

130,

000

150,

000

170,

000

190,

000

210,

000

210,

000

2000

18U

p to

59,

000

59,0

00 to

82,6

00 to

106,

200

to12

9,80

0 to

153,

400

to17

7,00

0 to

200,

600

to22

4,20

0 to

Gre

ater

than

82,6

0010

6,20

012

9,80

015

3,40

017

7,00

020

0,60

022

4,20

024

7,80

024

7,80

0

2001

16U

p to

68,

440

68,4

40 to

95,8

16 to

123,

192

to15

0,56

8 to

177,

944

to20

5,32

0 to

232,

696

to26

0,07

2 to

Gre

ater

than

95,8

1612

3,19

215

0,56

817

7,94

420

5,32

023

2,69

626

0,07

228

7,44

828

7,44

8

2002

13U

p to

77,

337

77,3

37 to

108,

272

to13

9,20

7 to

170,

142

to20

1,07

7 to

232,

012

to26

2,94

6 to

293,

881

toG

reat

er th

an

108,

272

139,

207

170,

142

201,

077

232,

012

262,

946

293,

881

324,

816

324,

816

2003

10U

p to

85,

071

85,0

71 to

119,

099

to15

3,12

8 to

187,

156

to22

1,18

4 to

255,

213

to28

9,24

1 to

323,

269

toG

reat

er th

an

119,

099

153,

128

187,

156

221,

184

255,

213

289,

241

323,

269

357,

298

357,

298

2004

8.5

Up

to 9

2,30

292

,302

to12

9,22

3 to

166,

144

to20

3,06

4 to

239,

985

to27

6,90

6 to

313,

827

to35

0,74

7 to

Gre

ater

than

129,

223

166,

144

203,

064

239,

985

276,

906

313,

827

350,

747

387,

668

387,

668

2005

7.5

Up

to 9

9,22

599

,225

to13

8,91

4 to

178,

604

to21

8,29

4 to

257,

984

to29

7,67

4 to

337,

364

to37

7,05

3 to

Gre

ater

than

138,

914

178,

604

218,

294

257,

984

297,

674

337,

364

377,

053

416,

743

416,

743

Perc

enta

ge o

f L

outh

Uni

ts5.

812

.525

.921

.612

.79.

14.

32.

91.

73.

5

wit

hin

each

ban

d

3.2.5 Housing Affordability Analysis

Section 93(1) of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, defines an eligibleperson as someone,

"who is in need of accommodation and whose income would not be adequate to meetthe payments on a mortgage for the purchase of a house to meet his or heraccommodation needs because the payments calculated over the course of a year wouldexceed 35 per cent of that person's annual income net of income tax and pay relatedsocial insurance".

A key requirement of the housing strategy in Louth is to identify the numberof eligible persons which might be anticipated over the duration of thedevelopment plan. An assessment of the likely number of such eligiblepersons (or eligible households) requires that a comparison be made betweenprojected house prices for the county, and projected ranges of disposableincomes of different households. Drawing upon the "35%" definition ofhousing affordability contained in the Act, a simple "annuity" formula hasbeen developed to assess affordability against four key variables which arecentral to the analysis. These are:

• household income;

• house price;

• mortgage interest rate; and

• loan to value ratio.

A note on the derivation and structure of the annuity formula is contained inAppendix E. Before attempting to arrive at any final assessment of housingaffordability in Louth, it was considered useful to develop someunderstanding of how sensitive any particular outcome might be to a givenlevel of change in the four key variables. This is not to suggest that theaffordability analysis is uniquely vulnerable to changes in the input variables.Rather it is simply to acknowledge that any analysis or forecast can only beconsidered reliable to the extent that the input variables upon which it isbased remain accurate and relevant. Table 3.5 illustrates how - for a fixedhouse price of £100,000 - changes in two of the three variables can influencethe income threshold at which an affordability problem would beencountered.


16

Table 3.5 Mortgage Servicing Costs under Different Scenarios

* Annual Disposable Income at which Mortgage Servicing = 35%

In this differing scenario analysis, the range of incomes at which a £100,000house can be deemed "affordable" extends from a low of £16,034 up to a highof £23,815, depending on the LTV or APR of the mortgage in question."Affordability", as a measured criterion is also unsurprisingly sensitive tochanges in interest rates with the 2% rise in interest rates illustrated abovecausing an increase of £3,770 in the corresponding affordable incomethreshold. While changing interest rates are the most striking example of apotential variation in the analysis, both variables tested can have a significantimpact on the measurement of affordability.

3.2.6 Assessing Housing Affordability

The analysis developed thus far has been concerned to present three keyoutcomes:

• a projection of the total numbers of households in the county each yearto 2006, and a breakdown of these according to household disposable incomes (Tables 3.1 and 3.3);

• an overview of the evolving distribution of house prices (Table 3.4);

• an overview of the estimated housing "affordability" potential of theprojected households.

The purpose in this section of the analysis is to draw these lessons together inorder to develop conclusions on which to base the affordability aspect of thehousing strategy for Louth.

Table 3.6 brings together information previously presented on numbers ofhouseholds, household incomes broken down across income deciles, and thenumber of incremental or new households formed. This data is forecast overthe period 1999 to 2006.

Table 3.6 Income Distribution of Annual Additional Households

Table 3.6 Income Distribution of Annual Additional Households (contd.)


17

House Loan Loan APR Term Monthly Annual Annual

Price to Value Size (years) Repayment Repayment Disposable

(IR£) Ratio (IR£) (IR£) (IR£) Income *

(a) Significance of different loan to value ratios

100,000 0.90 90,000 0.05 25 526.13 6,314 18,039

100,000 0.85 85,000 0.05 25 496.90 5,963 17,036

100,000 0.80 80,000 0.05 25 467.67 5,612 16,034

(b) Significance of different interest rates

100,000 0.90 90,000 0.06 25 579.87 6,958 19,881

100,000 0.90 90,000 0.07 25 636.10 7,633 21,809

100,000 0.90 90,000 0.08 25 694.60 8,335 23,815

Note 1: The household distribution has been derived by taking the household figures shown from

1999 to 2006 in Table 3.1 and re-allocating them on the basis of the distribution pattern

shown in column 3 of Table 3.2.

Note 2: The household income figures have been taken from Table 3.3.

Note 3: The figures in the last row of the table represent the anticipated incremental or new

households which will be formed in the county over the period of the development plan,

and are derived as the difference between total households on a year by year basis.

Based on the incremental household formations identified in Table 3.6, anddrawing upon the associated measure of income distribution, it has been

possible to establish a series of house prices which represent the maximumprice which these new households in Louth can be expected to afford. Thisseries of maximum prices has been derived on the basis of the criteria set outin Section 93(1) of the Act and is presented in Table 3.7. In the context of thisanalysis it has been established that in Louth in the year 2000, 142 new


18

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

% of

Households Total Households

11.54 3,706 3,889 4,031 4,173 4,315 4,457 4,599 4,741

10.54 3,376 3,543 3,672 3,802 3,931 4,061 4,190 4,319

9.48 3,039 3,189 3,305 3,422 3,538 3,655 3,771 3,887

9.60 3,075 3,227 3,345 3,463 3,581 3,699 3,816 3,934

9.74 3,120 3,274 3,394 3,513 3,633 3,752 3,872 3,991

9.56 3,063 3,214 3,332 3,449 3,566 3,684 3,801 3,919

9.81 3,145 3,300 3,420 3,541 3,661 3,782 3,902 4,023

9.58 3,071 3,223 3,341 3,458 3,576 3,694 3,811 3,929

9.78 3,132 3,287 3,407 3,527 3,647 3,767 3,887 4,007

10.34 3,314 3,478 3,606 3,732 3,860 3,985 4,115 4,242

Total 32,041 33,624 34,852 36,080 37,308 38,536 39,764 40,992

Average Household Income (IR£)

11.57 5,016 5,473 5,872 6,330 6,824 7,349 7,937 8,509

10.54 7,854 8,569 9,194 9,911 10,684 11,507 12,428 13,322

9.48 10,699 11,672 12,525 13,502 14,555 15,675 16,929 18,148

9.60 13,887 15,151 16,257 17,525 18,891 20,346 21,974 23,556

9.74 17,199 18,765 20,134 21,705 23,398 25,200 27,215 29,175

9.56 21,107 23,028 24,709 26,636 28,713 30,924 33,398 35,803

9.81 25,708 28,047 30,095 32,442 34,,973 37,666 40,679 43,608

9.58 30,729 33,525 35,973 38,779 41,803 45,022 48,624 52,125

9.78 37,564 40,983 43,975 47,405 51,102 55,037 59,440 63,720

10.34 55,582 60,640 65,066 70,141 75,613 81,435 87,949 94,282

households will be formed whose capacity to afford a house (based on the

assumptions defined in the footnote to Table 3.7) is limited to £30,250 orbelow. Equally, 271 households will be formed in the same year whose houseprice level is limited to £47,250 or below.

Table 3.7 Additional Households and House Price AffordabilityNote: Maximum house prices are based upon criteria set out in Section 93(1) of the Act, and

assuming a 5% APR, 25 year mortgage, and a 90% LTV ratio.

Given the measure of affordability now established for Louth, the remainingelement required to complete the assessment of social and affordable housingneed in the county is to make some estimate of the price bands at which newhousing will be introduced over the life of the development plan. This ispresented in Table 3.8, which reveals that the cheapest new house price inLouth in 2001 is expected to be £68,440 and that only 5.8% of all new houseswill be brought to the market at this price or lower. On this basis it can beexpected that of the anticipated 1,228 new household formations in Louth in2001, almost 387 can be expected to experience affordability problems. Theaffordability aspect of the housing strategy for the county has therefore beenassembled by extending this analysis for each year over the life of thedevelopment plan, and quantifying the percentage of each new household


19

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total Additional Households per Year

11.57 183 142 142 142 142 142 142 142

10.54 167 129 129 129 129 129 129 129

9.48 150 116 116 116 116 116 116 116

9.60 152 118 118 118 118 118 118 118

9.74 154 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

9.56 151 117 117 117 117 117 117 117

9.81 155 121 121 121 121 121 121 121

9.58 152 118 118 118 118 118 118 118

9.78 155 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

10.34 162 127 127 127 127 127 127 127

Total 1,581 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228

cohort which is likely to experience affordability difficulties.

Table 3.8 Numbers of Additional/New Housing Units in Louth within each Price Band

Note: Based on the rate of house price inflation introduced at Table 3.4 and assuming that the

distribution (or banding) of houses remains unchanged. The first three columns in the

Table under each year are taken from Table 3.4. The fourth column under each year

represents the distribution of total household formations for the year across the house price

range (based upon the housing stock value distribution shown in Appendix D, Table D.2.)

The implications of this analysis for the development of housing policy inLouth are summarised in Sections 3.3 and 3.4 below, which presentsconclusions on the likely level of social and affordable housing need whichthe planning authority believes it will be required to address over the life ofthe development plan.


20

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Income Additional Households per year based on Income Distribution

<IR£77.92 142 142 142 142 142 142 142

<IR£121.60 129 129 129 129 129 129 129

<IR£154.70 116 116 116 116 116 116 116

<IR£206.39 118 118 118 118 118 118 118

<IR£268.76 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

<IR£340.89 117 117 117 117 117 117 117

<IR£425.89 121 121 121 121 121 121 121

<IR£524.18 118 118 118 118 118 118 118

<IR£698.69 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

>IR£698.69 127 127 127 127 127 127 127

Total 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228

Approximate Affordable House Price (IR£)

<IR£77.92 30,250 32,750 35,000 37,800 40,600 43,900 47,200

<IR£121.60 47,250 51,000 55,000 58,900 63,850 68,880 73,880

<IR£154.70 64,450 69,440 75,000 80,560 86,600 93,800 100,500

<IR£206.39 83,900 90,100 97,200 104,500 112,700 121,600 130,550

<IR£268.76 104,000 111,500 120,100 129,400 140,000 151,000 161,700

<IR£340.89 127,700 137,000 147,700 159,400 166,700 185,100 198,300

<IR£425.89 155,500 166,600 180,000 193,800 208,500 225,500 242,000

<IR£524.18 186,100 199,400 215,000 232,200 249,500 269,500 288,900

<IR£698.69 232,800 243,800 262,700 283,300 305,100 329,500 353,000

>IR£698.69 337,000 360,600 388,800 419,400 451,500 487,000 522,500

3.3 ASSUMPTIONS MADE

The following assumptions and issues merit comment:

• The fullest possible use has been made of all relevant published data.Where data has been presented on a national basis, efforts have beenmade to assess trends in the data to ensure that it fits withcircumstances in Louth. (Note: In relation to house price data inparticular, planning authorities should construct their own forecasts ofhouse price trends in the light of experience and local circumstances.Planning authorities should obtain data regarding local price levelsand trends from local auctioneering sources and lending institutions asthere will be potentially significant variations in house prices betweendifferent areas and different segments of the market e.g. prices for firsttime purchasers (i.e. that segment of the market which are likely to bemost in need of affordable housing) tend to be well below average


21

No. of Additional Units 2000 2001 2002

71 Up to 59,000 Up to 68,440 Up to 77,337

154 59,000 to 82,600 68,440 to 95,816 77,337 to 108,272

318 82,600 to 106,200 95,816 to 123,192 108,272 to 9,207

264 106,200 to 129,800 123,192 to 150,568 139,207 to 170,142

156 129,800 to 153,400 150,568 to 177,944 170,142 to 201,077

112 153,400 to 177,000 177,944 to 205,320 201,077 to 232,012

53 177,000 to 200,600 205,320 to 232,696 232,012 to 262,946

36 200,600 to 224,200 232,696 to 260,072 262,946 to 293,881

21 224,200 to 247,800 260,072 to 287,448 293,881 to 324,816

43 Greater than 247,800 Greater than 287,448 Greater than 324,816

2003 2004 2005

71 Up to 85,070 Up to 92,301 Up to 99,224

154 85,070 to 119,099 92,301 to 129,223 99,224 to 138,914

318 119,099 to 153,128 129,223 to 166,144 138,914 to 178,604

264 153,128 to 187,156 166,144 to 203,064 178,604 to 218,294

156 187,156 to 221,184 203,064 to 239,985 218,294 to 257,984

112 221,184 to 255,213 239,985 to 276,906 257,984 to 297,674

53 255,213 to 289,241 276,906 to 313,827 297,674 to 337,364

36 289,241 to 323,269 313,827 to 350,747 337,364 to 377,053

21 323,269 to 357,298 350,747 to 387,668 377,053 to 416,743

43 Greater than 357,298 Greater than 387,668 Greater than 416,743

1,228

house prices which also reflect prices paid for other more expensiveproperties).

• In the analysis presented above recourse has been had to available CSOdata on average household incomes. On the basis that the averageincomes computed by the CSO are indeed representative, and reflectthe income position for a typical household which may present itself asan applicant for affordable housing, these figures can be used withsome confidence. However it should be noted that the income criteriaset out in Sections 93(1) and 93(3) of the Act differ in one importantrespect from income criteria used in the CSO Household BudgetSurvey. Section 93(3)(a) of the Act allows half of the annual income, netof tax and pay related social insurance, "of any other person who mightreasonably be expected to reside with the eligible person" to be reckoned inany determination of eligibility. Such a definition is different to theconcept of average household income used by the CSO. The impact ofthese definitional issues may not prove to be significant in the finalanalysis of affordable housing demand. In general, the impact of thisissue will be - through the more restrictive definition of additionalincome set out in Section 93(1)(a) - to lower the incomes of applicanthouseholds relative to the anticipated CSO average. This in turn willcompound affordability difficulties, and support an argument forsome slight upward revision of identified affordable housing need,and the consequent intervention of the planning authority underSection 94(4)(c).

• Significant inter-dependencies exist among the income, house price,and interest rate variables which mean that changes in one factor couldchange the analysis.

• In the analysis presented in this section, the estimated annual rate ofnew household formations in the county is taken as a proxy forhousing demand. A further aspect of potential housing demandhowever is the routine requirement to replace unfit dwellings. Thisarises in cases of overcrowding or where the fabric and quality of thedwelling is deemed unfit (either for reasons of age or obsolescence, orboth). The number of annual completions required to replace suchunfit dwellings has been estimated in the past at approximately 1% ofthe total housing stock.2 However because of ongoing improvementsto the quality of the national housing stock it is believed that this figuremay now be closer to 0.65%. In preparing this model housing strategyhowever, the planning authority has not reflected this additionaldemand.

3.4 CONCLUSIONS REACHED


22

The analysis at 3.1 above suggests that the demand for social and affordablehousing in Louth over the period 2000-2006 will exceed the anticipatedsupply. This outcome is presented below on a year-by-year basis and issummarised in Table 3.9.

2000271 households (i.e. 142 + 129, from Table 3.7) are likely to have an upperaffordability threshold price of £47,250, and a further 116 have a thresholdprice of £64,450. Assuming an even distribution,3 this suggests a total of 354households could afford to purchase up to £59,000. Table 3.8 indicates that 71housing units will be provided at a price of £59,000. The shortfall of 283 isequal to 23.0% of the total number of new household formations in the year.For higher income households, sufficient provision is expected to be made atprices within affordability thresholds.

_____________________________________

2 A Review of Housing Policy (Report No. 87 of the National Economic and Social Council)

3 In other words, assuming that the incremental number of households is spread equally acrossthe house price range (ie) that these households do not cluster at either end of the value range.The figure of 354 is calculated as follows: 387 households (i.e. 271 + 116) are likely to have a threshold price of £64,450. Therefore,387/64450 = 0.006, can be allocated to each household. To get the number of households for the£59,000 threshold simply multiply 59,000 by 0.006, yielding 354.

2001387 households will have an upper affordability threshold price of £69,440.Assuming an even distribution, this suggests a total of 381 could afford topurchase up to £68,440. Table 3.8 indicates that 71 housing units will beprovided at a price of £68,440. The shortfall of 310, does not meet the"affordability" definition. A further 124 (118 from Table 3.7, plus 6 (387-381))can afford up to £90,100, and a further 120 can afford up to £111,500. Again, itis assumed that 156 can afford up to £95,8004, the price at which 154 new unitsare being provided. Here only 2 do not meet the affordability definition. Intotal therefore in 2001, some 312 households are unlikely to meet theaffordability definition, which is equal to 25.4% of the total additional housingprovided in the year.

2002387 households will have an upper affordability threshold price of £75,000,and a further 118 have a limit of £97,200. It is therefore expected that some 399


23

households will have an upper limit of £77,337, the price at which some 71units will brought to the market. The shortfall in this year is therefore 328units. At higher incomes, 226 households (120 plus 106 (118-12)) can afford upto £120,100, suggesting approximately 163 households whose limit is £108,000.154 units are expected up to this price. Nine households at this level aretherefore added to the 328 at the lower income who will not meet theaffordability criteria. This 337 amounts to 27.4% of the total additionalprovision in the year.

2003387 additional households have an upper limit of £80,560, and a further 118have a limit of £104,500. It is expected therefore that some 409 households willhave an upper affordability price limit of £85,070, the price at which some 71units are expected to come on the market. The shortfall here is 338 units. Athigher incomes 216 households (120 plus 96 (118-22)), can afford prices up to£129,400, suggesting approximately 166 households whose limit is £119,100.Some 154 units are expected up to this price. Twelve households at this levelare added to the 338 at the lower income who will not meet the affordabilitycriteria. This 350 amounts to 28.5% of the total additional provision in theyear.

2004387 additional households have an upper limit of £86,600 and a further 118have a limit of £112,700. It is expected therefore that some 413 households willhave an upper affordability price limit of £92,301, the price at which some 71

_____________________________________

4 The figure of 156 is obtained by: 625 (i.e. 142 + 129 + 116 + 118 + 120, from Table 3.7) can affordto purchase to £111,500. This yields a multiplier, 625/111500 = 0.00561. Therefore to get thenumber of households for the £95,800 threshold simply multiply 95,800 by 0.00561, giving 537.Subtracting the earlier 381 gives 156.

units are expected to come on the market. The shortfall here is 342 units. Athigher incomes 214 households (120 plus 94 (118-26)), can afford up to£140,000, suggesting approximately 166 households whose limit is £129,200.Some 154 units are expected up to this price. Fourteen households at this levelare therefore added to the 342 at the lower income who will not meet theaffordability criteria. This 356 amounts to 29.0% of the total additionalprovision in the year.

2005387 additional households have an upper limit of £93,800 and a further 118have a limit of £121,600. It is expected therefore that some 410 households willhave an upper limit of £99,224, the price at which some 71 units are expectedto come on the market. The shortfall here is 339 units. At higher incomes 215households (120 plus 95 (118-23)), can afford up to £151,000, suggestingapproximately 165 households whose limit is £138,900. Some 154 units areexpected up to this price. Eleven households at this level are therefore added


24

to the 339 at the lower income who will not meet the affordability criteria. This350 amounts to 28.5% of the total additional provision in the year.

Table 3.9 Summary of Anticipated Social & Affordable Housing Need

The policy conclusion drawn from the summary analysis for Louth presentedin Table 3.9 has been that the planning authority will aim to reserve 20% ofzoned land (as defined under Section 94(4)(c)) for the purpose of meetingsocial and affordable housing need. This policy conclusion forms a linkingtheme into the subsequent analysis in sections 4 and 5.


25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

(1) Household formations 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228 1,228

(2) No. households meeting 283 312 337 350 356 350

affordability criteria S 93(1)

(2) as a % of (1) 23.0 25.4 27.4 28.5 29.0 28.5

4.1 BACKGROUND

This section of the housing strategy deals with those factors which influencehousing supply and addresses the planning and management of the physicalenvironment in Louth. An important concern throughout this section is theemphasis on the application of principles of sustainable development withinthe county.

In recent years, central government policy has been aimed at reducing thedemand for travel and the promotion of higher residential densities. Suchpolicies will tend to:

• reduce the need for the development of 'greenfield' sites;

• limit urban sprawl and ribbon development;

• ensure more economic use of existing infrastructure;

• enhance access to existing services and facilities;

• create more sustainable commuting patterns.

These principles of sustainable development have been set out in the policydocuments Sustainable Development: A Strategy for Ireland, Guidelines forPlanning Authorities on Residential Density and Strategic Planning Guidelines forthe Greater Dublin Area.

The population and household scenarios presented in section 3 of thisstrategy have been used as a basis for determining the likely future scale anddistribution of development in Louth. The drafting of this housing strategy,and the land-use planning system it represents, has attempted to support theobjectives of sustainable development in a number of ways:

• promotion of higher residential densities especially in proximity totown centres, public transport nodes and access points;

• encouragement of mixed use developments;

• ensuring a clear demarcation between urban and rural land-use;

• promotion of the redevelopment of brownfield sites;

• protection and enhancement of the natural environment;

26

4. ESTIMATING HOUSING SUPPLY

• location of new developments in an environmentally sustainable andsensitive manner.

The decreasing household size and increases in development pressure requirea more efficient and sustainable use of serviced land. This requires an increasein the density of residential developments throughout the county especiallyclose to public transport routes and on serviced land.

Greenfield sites on the edge of settlements in the county have in the past beendeveloped at net densities of between 15 and 20 dwellings per hectare. TheResidential Density Guidelines state that the greatest efficiency in land usage onsuch sites will be achieved at net residential densities in the general range of35 to 50 dwellings per hectare, and that such densities should be encouragedgenerally. The Guidelines also state that development at densities of less than20 dwellings per hectare should generally be discouraged in the interests ofland efficiency. On lands close to existing or proposed public transport routes,densities close to and in excess of 50 dwellings per hectare should bepermitted, subject to appropriate qualitative safeguards.

Although Louth is not located within the area covered by the StrategicPlanning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area, the population migration effectsfrom that area continue to have an impact on the county. No element of theprojected GDA population growth was assigned to Drogheda, which isoutside the Greater Dublin Area (GDA), but was identified as a growth centrein the Guidelines due to its high level of facilities, services and publictransport access to Dublin. The same characteristics can be applied to a lesserdegree to Dundalk (due to its greater distance from Dublin).


4.2.1 Development Plans

At present in Louth, there are five adopted statutory development planscovering the areas of Drogheda, Dundalk, Ardee, Blackrock and the rest of thecounty. Each of these developments is reviewed every five years. Section 9 ofthe Planning and Development Act, 2000, now requires planning authoritiesto make a development plan every six years.

A summary analysis of the policies contained in each of the existingdevelopment plans is set out in Appendix F.

4.2.2 Existing Zoned Land

Currently four areas in Louth are covered by land-use zoning plans, andtherefore contain residential zonings. These are the Blackrock/HaynestownDraft Development Plan 1999, the Ardee Development Plan 1997, the

Estimating Housing Supply

27

Drogheda Corporation Development Plan 1997, and the Dundalk UDCDevelopment Plan 1996. Table 4.1 summarises the current position in relationto undeveloped residential zoned lands.

Table 4.1 Undeveloped Residential Zoned Lands in the Development Plans

Blackrock/Haynestown Draft Development Plan 1999The Blackrock/Haynestown Draft Development Plan provides for asignificant increase in residential zoned land from the 1997 Plan. The plancontains approximately 500 hectares of residentially zoned land, divided intothe two zoning objectives of Primary and Secondary Residential. The PrimaryResidential zoning contains an area currently serviced by public drainage.The Secondary Residential zone is currently not adequately serviced.

The Primary Residential zoning is almost completely developed and thereforemost future housing will have to be accommodated on land zoned asSecondary Residential. This area has already been the focus of a number ofdevelopment proposals and the residential character of the area is indicativeof extensive ribbon development. There is approximately 280 hectares ofundeveloped residential zoned land in the development plan.

Ardee Development Plan 1997There is approximately 170 hectares of residentially zoned land in the ArdeeDevelopment Plan. The objective of this zoning has been "to protect, provideand improve Residential Amenities". There is approximately 60 hectares of theresidential zoned land that is currently undeveloped. Ardee is recognised asan expanding residential centre with residential zoned areas mostly located inthe south and east of the town. These residential zoned areas provide directaccess onto the N2 and via the R170 to the M1 motorway. The location of theresidential zoned land is likely to further stimulate development pressure andpopulation expansion in the future.

Drogheda Corporation Development Plan 1997The rapid expansion of the town, significant residential development, and theavailability of zoned and serviced land, has meant that the level ofundeveloped residential zoned land has fallen from 240 hectares in 1997 toonly 127 hectares in 2000. The plan also contains approximately 80 hectares of


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Development Plan Undeveloped Residential Zoned Land

Blackrock/Haynestown Draft Development Plan 1999 280 hectares

Ardee Development Plan 1997 60 hectares

Drogheda Corporation Development Plan 1997 127 hectares

Dundalk UDC Development Plan 1996 240 hectares

Total 707 hectares

town centre zoning where infill residential development would beappropriate. The combination of the rapid uptake of land, and changes innational density policy has resulted in the encouragement of infill andbrownfield development at higher residential densities in and around thetown centre.

All the undeveloped residentially zoned lands are currently either serviced orcould be easily serviceable due to their close proximity to public sewers andwater infrastructure.

Dundalk UDC Development Plan 1996There are approximately 690 hectares of residential zoned land in Dundalk. Ofthis residential zoned land, approximately 240 hectares is currentlyundeveloped. The plan also contains several other zonings including the towncentre where a relatively small level of infill residential development wouldbe deemed an appropriate use. A significant level of the undevelopedresidential land is currently not serviced, and is therefore zoned as beingpremature for development pending the satisfactory completion of a publicmain drainage scheme. A significant amount of the unserviced land is locatedto the west and north of the town.

The serviced or easily serviceable residentially zoned land is located to thewest and east of the town in large infill sites that will consolidate the urbanstructure of the town. The lands to the south of the town centre are zoned upto the development plan boundary.

4.2.3 Development Pressure

The existing development pressure for residential development in CountyLouth is being further stimulated by the rapid expansion of the economic baseof the Greater Dublin Area, and the differential in house prices betweenDublin and the county. The three planning authorities in Louth haveattempted to control the increase in one-off and GDA generated housing inrural areas through controlling policies in their respective development plans.

Nevertheless, the economic pressures emerging from the Greater Dublin Areaand the improvement in the transportation network, including theconstruction of the M1 motorway that enables commuting into the GDA fromLouth, continues to stimulate further housing demand in the county. Theexisting legacy of such housing has already impacted on landscape and otherrural land uses, and has generated even greater demand for the provision ofpublic services.

The existing settlement structure in the county is dominated by the rapidlyexpanding urban centres of Dundalk and Drogheda. Smaller settlements -particularly in the south of the county close to the transportation networks -have also become the focus of significant development pressure.


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The construction of the M1 motorway to the west of Dundalk and Droghedais likely to generate further development pressure on these towns, and onother smaller settlements. Development pressure in Dundalk has alreadybeen significant since the completion of the 1996 Development Plan with over1,200 housing units having been granted planning permission since 1997. Thecompletion of the M1 is likely to further increase pressure for residentialdevelopment on zoned lands to the north and west of the town.

The south side of Drogheda has been particularly affected by the recenteconomic expansion of the Greater Dublin Area, and by the emergence ofsubstantial differentials in house prices. Ease of access from the southern partof the town by car and train into the GDA has further stimulated the pressurefor residential development. An indication of the scale of developmentpressure is that a significant amount of infill, brownfield higher densityresidential development has also occurred in and around the town centre.

The north of the town has so far experienced less development pressure dueto problems of access into the GDA arising from traffic congestion in the towncentre. The construction of the M1 motorway to the west of the town willalleviate this problem, and is likely to provide further stimulus todevelopment pressure in the town, and especially the undevelopedresidentially zoned areas in the north-west of the town.

Outside the two main towns, Blackrock has been the focus of the mostsignificant development pressure with over 500 planning permissionsgranted in the last three years. Blackrock is particularly well suited toresidential development due to its accessibility to the road and rail network aswell as the range of social and community facilities, and employmentopportunities located within the town, and in nearby Dundalk. The Xeroxdevelopment, just to the south of Dundalk, has had a significant impact on thepressure for residential development in Blackrock.

4.2.4 Infrastructure - Transportation

The main transport corridor in Louth is that created by the M1/N1 and theBelfast-Dublin railway. Both of these routes pass through or are close to themain centres of Dundalk and Drogheda and link Dublin and Belfast. OtherNational Primary Routes link the M1/N1 to other centres and routes to thewest of the county. There is clear evidence that people working in the GDAchoose to live in Louth and commute on the improved road and rail system.It can also be observed that development is spreading along these routes withsignificant growth and development pressure in all of the settlements servedby the transport corridor. The completion of the M1 motorway will enabletraffic to bypass Dundalk and Drogheda, and this will result in animprovement in the town centre environments in both cases.


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4.2.5 Infrastructure - Sanitary Services

The development of sanitary service facilities is fundamental to the creationof larger settlements as well as being essential for sustaining employmentopportunities, such as tourism, and commercial and industrial activities. Theprovision of public drainage and water supply facilities in and adjacent tosettlements and especially smaller settlements, allows the provision of higherdensity housing schemes. This relieves pressure for one-off housing in theopen countryside and consolidates development patterns.

A number of the smaller villages and settlements are either lacking publicsewerage facilities and treatment works, or where such facilities do exist, thetreatment plants lack capacity. The provision of new facilities and theexpansion of existing sanitary service infrastructure to serve settlements areintegral for their future sustainable development. A number of the smallersettlements such as Termonfeckin, which has no public sewerage facilities,and Knockbridge, where the existing treatment works needs upgrading, areunder the greatest pressure for residential development. It has therefore beenconsidered prudent to limit the amount of development in settlements withunder-developed services.

4.2.6 Infrastructure - Social and Economic

There is only one third-level college in the county - the Institute of Technologyat Dundalk. The county does however have a number of secondary andprimary schools. These are primarily concentrated in the main settlements ofDundalk and Drogheda. There are two main hospitals in the county located inDundalk and Drogheda. Employment has increased in the county in recentyears. Many local and regional services are concentrated in Dundalk andDrogheda, and this has effectively restricted the development of certainservices elsewhere in the county.

Dundalk and Drogheda have a strong and traditional town centre retailfunction. Both towns have developed more modern retail centres in recentyears but have still managed to retain a vital urban core. There are only a fewoutlets of significance selling convenience goods in the county outside ofDundalk and Drogheda. The only other town centre with a strong retailsector is Ardee. Smaller settlements such as Dunleer and Carlingford operateonly as local convenience goods and service centres.

4.2.7 Infrastructure - Amenity, Heritage and Recreation

There are a number of important natural resources in Louth that cater for therecreational requirements of the population. These include the followingareas which are identified as Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty in the CountyDevelopment Plan:


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• Ravensdale/Carlingford Mountains and Hinterland;

• Port Oriel, Clogherhead and Hinterland.

The pressure for residential development and especially one-off housing andsmall developments in and around these parts of the county is increasing dueto the environmental and other benefits of living in such areas. In general theconcern has been to control one-off housing through stricter policies andenforcement. Where development is allowed to take place there is a need toensure that it is in keeping with its setting and does not cause a visualintrusion.

4.2.8 Development Capacity

Capacity in Louth to accommodate future housing growth is dependent on arange of factors. The most important are:

• the amount of serviced and unserviced residentially zoned land;

• the amount of other land suitable for development;

• constraints and limits in the provision of water supply and drainage;

• constraints and limits in the provision of other physical and socialinfrastructure;

• access, including public transport;

• topographical constraints;

• areas of high amenity or nature conservation value.

An estimate of the capacity of lands currently zoned for residential use inLouth is presented in Table 4.2. It is evident that existing zoned lands canaccommodate the anticipated growth in household numbers in the period upto 2006. It is estimated that further residential development will beaccommodated through infill development in existing residential areas aswell as on land that is zoned for a mix of uses including residential.


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Table 4.2 Estimated Capacity of Residentially Zoned Land

Note 1: Capacity of housing units has been calculated at 35 housing units per hectare in

accordance with the Guidelines for Planning Authorities on Residential Density.

Note 2: Capacity of housing units has excluded areas of land zoned for mixed uses.

Table 4.2 clearly identifies that there is considerable capacity in the county toabsorb future housing requirements. Even at lower residential densities, andtaking account of the fact that land zoned for mixed use has not beenincluded, existing zoned land retains sufficient capacity to cater for projectedhousing needs. This is particularly so in Blackrock and Dundalk whereapproximately 18,000 housing units can be accommodated. The developmentof all these lands would result in a population increase of approximately55,000 in the Dundalk / Blackrock area.

These estimates for the capacity of zoned land do not however, allow for landsthat may not be released for development in the period between 2000 and2006, or which might not be serviceable within the timescale of the housingstrategy.

Based on the estimated number of additional households over the period2001-2006 as shown in Table 3.1 (and rounded up to the nearest 100) about 212hectares of zoned land will be needed to accommodate this level ofdevelopment. This will still leave around 495 hectares of spare capacity basedon the current availability of 707 hectares of zoned undeveloped land (as perTable 4.1) in the four main development centres of Drogheda, Dundalk, Ardeeand Blackrock.

The County Louth Draft Development Centre Strategy excludes Drogheda,Dundalk, Ardee and Blackrock. The Draft Development Centre Strategyidentifies that there is capacity for over 4,000 housing units within thesettlements identified in the strategy.


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Development Plan Capacity in Housing Units

Blackrock/Haynestown Draft Development Plan 1999 9,800

Ardee Development Plan 1997 2,100

Drogheda Corporation Development Plan 1997 4,445

Dundalk UDC Development Plan 1997 8,400

Total County Louth 24,745


A number of assumptions have been made in this analysis of physicalplanning and housing supply, and in reaching the conclusions at 4.4. Thereasons for these assumptions have already been alluded to in the text, andthey are now summarised as follows:

• pressure for development is being generated by continuing populationmigration from Dublin;

• in accordance with the Residential Density Guidelines, a net density of 35housing units per hectare throughout the county has been used tocalculate capacity of lands;

• development will take place in a sustainable manner;

• the distribution of house completions for the period 1996 - 1999 hasbeen taken from the Housing Statistics Bulletin of the Department ofthe Environment and Local Government, and it has been assumed thatcompletions have mirrored the ratio of planning permissions grantedwithin each area during this period;

• household size has been identified as 3.21 in 1996, and is assumed tobe 3.05 in 2000, and 2.81 in 2006 in these areas;

• Category 1 settlements are Annagassan, Castlebellingham,Clogherhead, Collon, Dromiskin, Dunleer, Knockbridge, Lordship,Louth, Omeath, Tallanstown, Termonfeckin, Tinure and Tullyallen;

• household figures for Category 1 settlements in 2006 in Table 4.3 alsoinclude the environs of Drogheda;

• most new residential development will occur within Dundalk,Drogheda, Ardee and Blackrock with the rest of the developmentdivided between Category 1 settlements where they are serviced asidentified in the Draft Development Centre Strategy, DroghedaEnvirons and the rest of Louth;

• the number of new households corresponds with the number of newhousing units created during the period of the strategy;

• the number of permissions granted between the period 2000 and 2006,and not developed, will be equal to the number of planningpermissions granted between 1996 and 2000, and not developed;


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• the take up of the 1,700 planning permissions granted, butundeveloped, between 1997 and 2000 will be at the same ratio as theprojected population (See Appendix B, Table B.2);

• all 1,700 housing units granted planning permission, but notdeveloped, in the period 1997 to 2000 will be developed during theperiod of the strategy;

• 600 new housing units will be located within the rest of the county;

• 500 of the new households in Category 1 settlements and Droghedaenvirons will be created in the Drogheda environs;

• the uptake of latent planning permissions prior to 1997 and the loss ofhousing due to obsolescence will be approximately equal during theperiod of the strategy;

• the capacity of housing units excludes units which may or can bedeveloped on land zoned for a mix of uses. The planning authoritywill reserve 20% of the housing units proposed for social andaffordable housing purposes on land zoned for a mix of uses, asprovided for in the Act;

• in assessing housing supply, the planning authority did not attempt toquantify the amount of private rented accommodation (eithersubsidised or unsubsidised) which might come on stream in thecounty over the course of the development plan. It is noted howeverthat private rented accommodation does represent a further (albeitcurrently small) source of housing supply which may serve to alleviateto some degree the affordability problems analysed in Section 3.


4.4.1 Spatial Distribution of Housing Projections

A number of strategic options were assessed for the future distribution ofhousing in the county. These included a strategy for the containment of futuregrowth within the four main development centres of Dundalk, Drogheda,Ardee and Blackrock. A second strategy allowed for the major expansion ofthe population of the county based on the increasing pressure fordevelopment from the Greater Dublin Area. A third strategy was consideredwhich anticipated growth in other secondary settlements around the county.Each of these options could accommodate the scale of expected growth in thefuture and provide a basis for the proposed spatial distribution of the housingstrategy.


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The containment option provided the most sustainable housing and land-useoption in regard to the spatial distribution of housing projections. This optionseeks to confine the larger proportion of future residential developmentwithin the existing residentially zoned areas identified within the Drogheda,Dundalk, Blackrock/Haynestown and Ardee Development Plans. Aproportion of future growth will be allocated to the settlements identified asCategory 1 in the Draft Development Centre Strategy and in the environs ofDrogheda, as well as a surplus to allow for flexibility and to provide for localneeds in the county and smaller settlements. An indicative distribution offuture population is given in Table 4.3. This distribution also provides for amore significant number of social/affordable housing units to be developedin areas that are close to public transportation and other services and facilities.The developments shown in Table 4.3 will require the implementation ofschemes currently at construction, in planning or projected by the localauthorities to meet wastewater treatment requirements. In addition,measures to improve the necessary sewerage infrastructure will be required.

Table 4.3 Indicative Spatial Distribution of Future Population

Note 1: Household and population figures taken from Table 3.1 and rounded to nearest hundred. Note 2: It has been assumed that house completions for each area in the period 1996 - 2000, taken

from the Housing Statistics Bulletin of the Department of the Environment and LocalGovernment have mirrored the ratio of planning permissions granted within each areaduring this period.

Note 3: Household size was 3.21 in 1996, and assumed to be 3.05 in 2000 and 2.81 in 2006throughout County Louth.

Note 4: Category 1 settlements are Annagassan, Castlebellingham, Clogherhead, Collon,Dromiskin, Dunleer, Knockbridge, Lordship, Louth, Omeath, Tallanstown, Termonfeckin,Tinure and Tullyallen.

Note 5: Household figures for Category 1 settlements in 2006 also include the environs ofDrogheda.


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Population Households

Year 1996 2000 2006 1996 2000 2006

Category 1 settlements 7,300 10,500 13,200 2,200 3,450 4,700

Other areas of Louth 27,200 27,500 28,400 8,300 9,000 10,100

Blackrock/ Haynestown 3,600 4,900 6,700 1,100 1,600 2,400

Ardee 3,800 4,300 5,600 1,100 1,400 2,000

Dundalk 25,800 28,100 31,800 8,200 9,200 11,300

Drogheda 24,500 27,300 29,500 7,800 8,950 10,500

Total 92,200 102,600 115,200 28,700 33,600 41,000

Estimated future population and household levels are indicated in Table 4.3.The population of the county is set to increase by approximately 12% over theperiod of the strategy from 2000 to 2006. Household formation is runningsignificantly ahead of increases in population and is projected to increase byapproximately 22% over the next 6 years of the housing strategy. This willresult in the population of the county increasing by 12,600 and the number ofhouseholds by 7,400 between 2000 and 2006.

The housing strategy in Louth is based primarily on the capacity of theexisting residentially zoned land and on the availability of existing andplanned infrastructure in the four existing main urban centres. Regard hasalso been had to the capacity of other areas to absorb levels of residentialdevelopment following the development of land-use plans, and to therequirement to cater for local needs. This will concentrate development intothe four existing main urban centres and will also serve to consolidate existingsecondary centres.

Overall, sufficient capacity exists in Louth to accommodate the required levelsof growth, but only if the relevant infrastructure is put in place especially inDundalk and Blackrock and the smaller settlements. The indicativedistribution of growth shown in Table 4.3 takes account of the need to reducethe absorption of urban generated housing both from within the county, andmore particularly from the Greater Dublin Area.

The provision of land-use zoning plans, for the settlements identified asCategory 1 in the Draft Development Centre Strategy, will provide a planningframework for one-off housing and allow for greater planning control of bothrural and urban generated housing pressures. This option, and the provisionof greater employment opportunities and facilities, is expected to result in anoverall reduction in the need to travel. This will be achieved through theconcentration of residential development - where possible - in locations wherethere is access to the main line rail network. The strategy also emphasises thedevelopment of areas where there are existing public transport routes andwhere there is easy access to education, employment and other commercialand community facilities.

Integral to this strategy is the need to ensure that a range of housing types andsizes will be made available to meet the different demands of the marketincluding the needs of first time buyers. Section 5 of this housing strategy willalso consider the question of affordable housing for households on modestincomes, as well as providing for a range of social housing for a broad span ofhouseholds such as the disabled, the elderly and those on the lowest incomes,and the unemployed. The provision of a suitable range of housing types andsizes will diminish the uniformity of suburban type development and willfacilitate the further integration of social and affordable housing into existingcommunities. Equally, the priority to promote sustainable development is


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respected in the housing strategy through the approach taken which seeks toreduce the need to travel and encourages a form of residential developmentthat reduces urban sprawl. The strategy is also concerned to maintain a clearerdistinction between urban and rural areas.

4.4.2 Social and Affordable Housing Distribution

Table 3.9 indicated that a higher percentage than 20% of new householdformations in Louth over the period 2000 - 2006 are likely to presentthemselves as eligible persons as defined in Section 93(1) of the Act. Section94(4)(c) of the Act makes provision for up to 20% of residentially zoned landto be reserved for social and affordable housing. On this basis, and on thebasis of the analysis presented in section 3 of this document, it is intended thatthe planning authorities in Louth will intervene as provided for in Section94(4)(c) of the Act to reserve 20% of residentially zoned lands for the purposeof providing for social and affordable housing. This intervention will befocused on the main urban centres where there is adequate public transport,infrastructure, services and other facilities to sustain and accommodate theselevels of social and affordable housing.

Outside the main settlements, in towns and villages identified as Category 1settlements in the Draft Development Centre Strategy, a figure of 20% willalso be used for social and affordable housing. Where necessary, thebreakdown of social and affordable housing in such circumstances will beweighted towards affordable housing, reflecting the relatively lower levels ofservices, facilities, and transportation alternatives in rural areas. However,due to the anticipated high levels of eligibility for social or affordable housing,a constant intervention of 20% will be applied in all settlements and areas inthe county. However, in some cases and in some parts of the county, apercentage lower than 20% will be considered particularly where a high levelof social housing already exists.

The current land bank of each of the three planning authorities is indicated inTable 4.4. The land bank of Louth County Council is capable of providingsome of the social housing needs in local and rural locations as is evidencedby the schemes commenced at Dunleer, Tallanstown, Clogherhead andOmeath in 1999. The development of all this land by the local authoritiescould provide up to 1,000 units. Some of the land bank may however be moreappropriately developed for other uses due to its poor location, high existingconcentration of local authority housing in the area, or for other reasons. It isimportant that social and affordable housing is properly integrated intoexisting communities.


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Table 4.4 Current Land Banks of Each Local Authority

Table 4.5 Spatial Allocation of Social and Affordable Housing Units under Part V on Zoned Land in County Louth between 2000 and 2006

Note 1: Total new households are computed on the basis of the total increase of 7,400 householdsbetween 2000 and 2006 identified in Table 4.3. However, of this increase, an estimated600 households have been allocated to other locations in the county for development onunzoned land. This allocation has been based on available capacity in other settlementsand on the basis of good planning practice which seeks to diminish the amount of one-offhousing on unzoned land in the county. The final figure was arrived at as an estimate ofthe sustainable annual amount of housing on unzoned land (i.e. an estimate designed toslow down the recent trend in such housing).

Note 2: It has been assumed that the number of planning permissions granted before the year2000, but not developed, will be equal to the number of permissions granted between theperiod 2000 and 2006, and not developed.

Note 3: It has been assumed that this model housing strategy would run from 2000 - 2006.However, it is recognised that in implementing housing strategies planning authoritieswill be dealing with a time-scale that will begin in 2001/02 i.e. planning permissionsgranted after the incorporation of the housing strategy into the development plan.

Note 4: Arising from the lag effect observed at Note 3 above, the total of 6,800 new households hasbeen discounted to a figure of 4,340 which reflects the likely rate of house completions towhich Part V will effectively apply beginning in late 2001.


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Total New Total New Social/Affordable

Households Households affected Housing (20%)

by Part V

Blackrock/Haynestown 800 510 100

Ardee 600 380 80

Dundalk 2,100 1,340 270

Drogheda 1,550 990 200

Category 1 settlements and

Drogheda environs 1,750 1,120 220

Total 6,800 4,340 870

Louth County Council Dundalk Urban District Council Drogheda Corporation

12 hectares 6 hectares 15 hectares

In recent years, Louth has provided for up to 400 rural houses per annum. Thecontinuation of this level of rural housing provision is not considered viablein the long run. This housing strategy reflects national, regional, and localpolicies, all of which aim to control the development of one-off housing andribbon development, as well as consolidating existing settlements.Consequently, provision is made in this strategy for a total of 600 rural housesover the course of the development plan or an equivalent of 100 units perannum.

The addition of new residential zoning areas around the environs ofDrogheda and in the Category 1 settlements, as well as the greater control ofone-off housing in the countryside, will result in a decrease in the level of newrural housing. The consolidation of existing Category 1 and other smallersettlements - and the implementation of such a policy - is in accordance withthe proper planning and sustainable development of the area.

It has been assumed that 600 housing units will be located within the rest ofthe county outside of the currently zoned and proposed zoned areas. These600 housing units will include social and affordable housing units developedby the planning authority but not relating to the application of Part V of theAct. This housing provision provides additionality in terms of catering forrural housing needs.

4.4.3 Revision of Development Plans

This strategy has established that there is sufficient residential zoned land toaccommodate the projected increases in population numbers and householdsover the period of the development plan. However, a spatial distribution ofnew residential development has indicated that there is a lack of residentialzoned land in Drogheda (See Tables 4.2 and 4.4). To address this issue, a land-use zoning plan will be prepared for the environs of Drogheda by LouthCounty Council. Moreover in order to secure the proper planning anddevelopment of Drogheda, it is intended that this environs plan will bedeveloped in conjunction with both Drogheda Corporation and MeathCounty Council.

Further land-use zoning plans (i.e. local area plans) will also be prepared forthe settlements of Annagassan, Castlebellingham, Clogherhead, Collon,Dromiskin, Dunleer, Knockbridge, Lordship, Louth, Omeath, Tallanstown,Termonfeckin, Tinure and Tullyallen to ensure that their future developmentis carried out with regard to the principles of proper planning and sustainabledevelopment. Zoning will be limited to the capacity and availability of landwithin each settlement, having regard to the available services and facilitieswithin the settlement. Whilst it is recognised that there is already asignificantly high level of residential zoning in County Louth, the provision offurther zoning plans will allow for the proper planning and development of


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these settlements. This in turn will allow towns such as Drogheda where thereis an identified public transport link - in this case to Dublin - to absorb greaterincreases in population. The existing high levels of zoning in County Louthare likely to result in continuing in-migration from the Greater Dublin Area.Although this housing strategy has allowed for population migration fromDublin, the continuance of this trend over a longer period is considered to beunsustainable and will be reviewed by the planning authority throughout theperiod of the development plan in the context of the National Spatial Strategy.

The proper implementation of this housing strategy will require a number ofsupplementary revisions to be made to existing development plans within thecounty. A listing of the revisions which will need to be made is attached atAppendix G.


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5.1 BACKGROUND

Earlier sections of this strategy have identified the expected need for socialand affordable housing over the life of the development plan 2000-2006. Table3.9 revealed that more than 20% of new household formations in each year ofthe planning period will experience affordability difficulties. Table 4.1revealed that sufficient zoned land exists in Louth to cater for the anticipatedhousing demand, and that the planning authorities in the county willtherefore remain unconstrained in this regard over the course of thedevelopment plan. Table 4.5 presented a spatial distribution of social andaffordable housing in the county on the assumption that the planningauthority is prompted by the results set out in Table 3.9 to intervene in newhousing developments to the maximum permitted extent of 20%.Intervention at this level is expected to yield 870 social and affordable unitsover the period in question.

At present the local authorities in Louth are planning for the development of700 housing units over the period 2000-2003 through their local authorityhousing programmes with the assistance of the Department of theEnvironment and Local Government. The emergence of Part V as aninstrument of housing policy has clear implications for the existingarrangements and supports for the provision of social housing. For thepurposes of this housing strategy, it has been assumed that social housingprovision over the period 2004-2006 will reflect the broad trends evident in theimmediately preceding years although the way it is delivered may altersignificantly towards a greater partnership with the private sector. In essence,intervention through the local authority housing programme will remain theprimary vehicle for the delivery of social housing in the early years of thestrategy, with a likely rebalancing post the life of the current multi-annualprogramme in 2003, when a greater proportion of the social housing may bemet from the land reserved under Part V of the Act. It is likely, however, evenwith the provision of social housing under the Part V provisions, that therewill remain a need for a direct local authority housing programme in theCounty.

An evident consequence of this approach will be an outcome where theplanning authorities are planning for the building of more houses than therewill be households formed over the life of the development plan - in effect thehousing waiting list will be reduced in the county. This approach has beentaken to address some of the unresolved demand represented by the housingwaiting list. Currently, there are a total of 1,724 households on the combinedwaiting lists of the three planning authorities in Louth - a percentage of whichare in accommodation which they cannot afford but which would provideadequate and suitable accommodation for other households.

5. SOCIAL AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING


In preparing this housing strategy, the planning authorities in Louth hadregard to the following issues and tasks. Some of these tasks in particular willrequire further elaboration over the course of the implementation of thishousing strategy.

5.2.1 Local Social and Affordable Housing Policies

It has been estimated that 870 social and affordable units will be providedover the course of the development plan on land reserved under Part V. Thespatial distribution of these units has also been set out in Table 4.5 based upondecisions relating to existing infrastructure and good planning practice.

The final determination of the detail of social and affordable housing policies(site selection, housing design, housing mix, resident mix, special needs, etc)will be made through a series of consultations (as part of the consultationprocess for finalising the strategy) between representatives of the planningauthority (both elected and at official level) and key stakeholders with a directand legitimate interest in policy formation. It is expected that these willinclude:

• social housing applicants;

• private developers;

• voluntary/co-operative/community housing organisations;

• community groups, and representatives of other social groups such astravellers, the disabled, and the elderly;

• existing communities and resident/tenant associations;

• representatives of the real estate industry.

These consultations will address issues such as social mix, social integration,design of units, ownership objectives, range of house types and sizes, themanagement of common space and amenity areas, and objectives in relationto developing the role and participation of tenants organisations and thevoluntary housing sector.

5.2.2 Current Local Authority Housing Stock

Utilisation of current local authority housing stock is relatively high withinthe three planning authorities in Louth.

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Social and Affordable Housing

44

Vacancy rates or voids within the existing stock are low and mainly related toshort-term factors such as movement of tenants or re-developments inprogress. Overcrowding has not emerged as a serious problem in Louth todate, but a more comprehensive analysis of local authority housing stockutilisation (persons per bedroom) will be undertaken as an input to futuredecision-making. This will assist in the analysis of current local authorityhousing stock by the planning authorities and will facilitate a pro-activeapproach to better utilisation and housing management.

The condition of current local authority housing stock in Louth is also animportant variable in determining local authority housing redevelopmentpriorities. In evaluating the standard of the current local authority housingstock, planning authorities in Louth can link available information on thecondition of the stock to community and social perception of the area. An ageanalysis of the existing stock in the ownership of Louth County Councilshows that only 38% of units are over 20 years old, and some 5% of propertiesare in excess of 30 years old. This reflects the cumulative impact of the varioustenant-purchase schemes and the continued government policy of promotinghome ownership. This analysis is summarised in the figure below:

Figure 5.1 Age Profile of Social Housing Stock: Louth County Council

Community and social perceptions of existing housing areas are importantfactors in determining the wider contextual conditions for social housing.Some of the larger urban estates in Dundalk and Drogheda exhibit poorhousing conditions, which are frequently linked to environmental factorssuch as poor social and recreational amenities. Documented research inIreland and elsewhere points to the relationship between poor housingconditions, lack of community amenities and high levels of social exclusion.Smaller estates in urban centres, as well as most estates within the LouthCounty Council area, have managed to develop a more positive image, withbetter amenities, estate management and housing conditions.


5.2.3 Provision of Local Authority Housing

The provision of local authority housing in Louth has traditionally beenfunded through housing capital allocations made by the Department of theEnvironment and Local Government. Earlier in 2000, an agreement on multi-annual capital funding was reached with the Department which provided forthe construction of 700 housing units over the period 2000-2003. It is expectedthat 150 of these units will be completed in the current year, with the balanceof 550 to be completed over the subsequent three years, some of which maybe in developments to which the Part V provisions apply. Table 5.1 presentssummary data on the expected delivery of these local authority housing units:

Table 5.1 Summary of Agreed Local Authority Housing Units 2000-2003

As indicated already, it is anticipated that the provision of these localauthority housing units will be supplementary to the 870 units identifiedthrough Part V intervention. In preparing this housing strategy therefore, theagreed allocation of local authority housing units have been factored into totalsupply, up to and including the year 2003. The current multi-annualprogramme will conclude at the end of 2003. Thereafter it is possible thatsome re-balancing of local authority housing may take place in terms ofprovision under Part V or under a newly established multi-annualprogramme.

In order to ensure delivery of the local authority housing programme targets,it is important that a planned programme for the provision of keyinfrastructure/services (water, sewerage, roads, etc) is in place. Sufficientcapacity in the construction sector is also essential. The planning resourcesavailable to the authority must also be kept under review and maintained ata level that will ensure delivery of the programme.

5.2.4 Affordable Housing

In accordance with Section 93(1) of the Act, the term "affordable housing" isunderstood to relate to housing which is available for purchase. The term"house" is interpreted in accordance with the definition provided at Section 2of the Act. In preparing this housing strategy therefore, the planningauthority has interpreted affordable housing to mean the provision of housing

45


Proposed Starts Louth CC Dundalk Drogheda Total

4 year allocation 2000-03 200 250 250 700

Anticipated out turn 2000 65 70 15 150

Balance of 4 year programme 135 180 235 550

to be achieved 2001-03

for purchase by eligible persons (as defined in the Act). Such affordablehousing may be provided either through,

• the local authority itself (in accordance with Part V of the Act andunder the existing affordable and shared-ownership schemes);

• private developers (in accordance with Part V of the Act); or

• the voluntary and co-operative housing sector (in accordance withPart V of the Act).

In deciding on the range and type of social and affordable housing in Louththe planning authorities must have regard to Section 94(5) of the Act, and willpay particular attention to the following factors:

• local policy and local social/community issues;

• profile of the existing social housing stock and patterns of bestutilisation;

• special needs housing requirements;

• existing social and private housing mix;

• access to essential infrastructure;

• visual and amenity value of developments;

• promotion of social integration.

In identifying the level of affordable housing to be provided in a particulararea, the planning authority will also have regard to the wider developmentneeds of the area in question over the life of the development plan.

5.2.5 Voluntary Housing Sector

It is expected that the role of the voluntary housing sector (voluntary housingassociations, co-operative associations, and community associations) willfeature strongly over the course of the development plan. This housingstrategy has been based on the expectation that through the implementationof Part V, planning authorities can work more closely with the voluntaryhousing sector to expand significantly their contribution to constructioncapacity across the county. This expectation of an enhanced role for thevoluntary housing sector is in turn based on a belief that the sector hasremained somewhat under-developed to date. The sector represents apotentially valuable resource within the county. Planning authorities will

46


therefore consult carefully with the sector through the life of the developmentplan in order to identify and agree opportunities for their participation in theconstruction of social and affordable houses. This consultation will initiallyfocus on those associations which are currently working in Louth or whichhave expressed an interest in working in the area. Table 5.2 details thosevoluntary housing sector schemes which are either underway or at planningstage in Louth:

Table 5.2 Current Involvement of the Voluntary Sector

5.2.6 Overview of Total Housing Provision

Table 5.3 presents an overview of total housing provision over the life of thedevelopment plan. The total new household formations anticipated between2000 and 2006, is 7,400 as already noted in Tables 3.1 and 4.3 (figures havebeen rounded to the nearest 100). The level of local authority housing is basedon the data in Table 5.1. Table 5.3 indicates that the planning authorityintends to combine the agreed output under the existing multi-annualprogramme together with the opportunity represented by Part V to deliverhousing in the county at a rate slightly ahead of the anticipated rate ofhousehold formation. The implication of the application of this strategy willbe that the planning authority will be able to meet some of the affordablehousing need while at the same time bringing about a managed reduction inthe existing housing waiting list.

Table 5.3 Total Housing Provision over the Development Plan 2001-2006

47


Name of VHA Number of Units August 2000 Position

Respond 44 (Toberona, Dundalk) In progress

North and East Housing 30 (Toberona, Dundalk) Discussions between VHA and

Association Dundalk UDC

St. Pancras 40 (Farndreg, Dundalk) About to commence

St. Pancras 48 (Finnabair Crescent, Dundalk) Planning permission applied for

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total

Household Formations 1,233 1,233 1,233 1,233 1,234 1,234 7,400

Total Demand

Private Sector 1,233 1,059 1,059 1,059 1,060 1,060 6,530

Social & Affordable 135 354 409 174 174 174 1,420

Housing (including Part V)

Total Supply 1,368 1,413 1,468 1,233 1,234 1,234 7,950

48

Note 1: The figure of 1,233 in the first row corresponds to the figure of 1,228 noted in Table 3.1.

The difference arises because of rounding up to arrive at the total household formations of

7,400.

Note 2: The total figure of 1,420 for social and affordable housing includes the 870 units identified

in Table 4.5. The remaining units will be provided through the multi-annual social

housing programme.

Table 5.3 also suggests that the delivery of housing units under Part V willrequire a considerable expansion in output from the voluntary housing sector(measured against the planned provision set out in Table 5.2).

The principal factors which have influenced this analysis are summarised asfollows:

• Given the anticipated level of household formation over the course ofthe development plan (7,400), and given the estimated capacity ofresidentially zoned land in the county set out in Table 4.2, it is believedthat the number of house completions will broadly match totalhousehold formations (Throughout this housing strategy, householdformations have been taken as a realistic proxy for housing demand).

• As indicated in the notes on Table 4.5, it is believed that some 600households from the total of 7,400 will be developed on unzoned land.This estimate has been based on historical patterns of house buildingon unzoned land in the county. Furthermore, because of the time lagnecessarily involved in applying Part V to new housing developments,it is estimated that some 2,460 housing units will already have beenapproved or started. In effect therefore, it is estimated - based uponexisting trends in planning practice - that of the 7,400 units to bedeveloped over the course of the development plan, some 4,340 will besubject to the provisions of Part V.

• The requirement identified by the council to reserve 20% ofdevelopments for the purposes of social and affordable housing,suggests that a total of 870 units (rounded to the nearest ten) will bemade available through the application of Part V. It is anticipated thatthe private sector will produce 6,530 units (600 units on unzoned land,2,460 units which will have been approved prior to the application ofPart V, and 3,470 units (i.e. 80% of 4,340) which will be developedfollowing the application of Part V.

• The provision of local authority housing funded by capital allocationsfrom the Department of the Environment and Local Government willbe as agreed under the current multi-annual programme to the year2003.


• In contrast to the retrospective focus of local authority housing (i.e.addressing an accumulated housing need), this housing strategyreflects the forward looking focus of Part V in anticipating housingneed. As indicated in Table 3.9, it is expected that a number ofhouseholds in the county will experience housing affordabilityproblems over each year of the development plan. The affordablehousing to be produced under Part V, combined with the continuedprovision of social housing, will represent a significant response to thisissue.

Table 5.4 shows the types of households currently represented on the housingwaiting lists across the three planning authorities in Louth.

Table 5.4 Housing Waiting Lists by Household Type

Small households constitute a significant proportion of the housing lists withsingle person households representing 574 cases or 33% of all applicants.While lone parent families constitute 47% of the total housing list, the largestproportion are lone parent families with one child (33% of the total housinglist). Applications from elderly persons represent an additional, albeit a smallnumber, of small households. Larger households constitute a much smallerproportion of the overall housing list with the largest number being loneparents with three or more children.

The significance of the high proportion of smaller households is not fullyreflected in the size and type of existing housing stock where the relativelylarge accumulated proportion of three-bed units reflects social planningtrends from an earlier period.

49


Category of Household Louth CC Dundalk Drogheda Total %

Couples without Children 20 30 19 69 4

Couples with 1 child 23 50 26 99 6

Couples with 2 children 16 23 7 46 3

Couples with 3 or more children 22 26 17 65 4

Lone parent with 1 child 129 213 234 576 33

Lone parent with 2 children 32 59 49 140 8

Lone Parent with 3 or more children 22 53 31 106 6

Single person households 76 338 160 574 33

Elderly person applicants 17 - 14 31 2

Travellers 7 - 11 18 1

Total 364 792 568 1,724 100

5.2.7 Special Needs Housing

The requirements of those with special housing needs are catered for in thishousing strategy in the following ways:

• Elderly persons’ needs are addressed through the provision of specifictypes and sizes of households. Many developments in Louth havealready included specific accommodation for the elderly which tendsto be smaller, more accessible and closer to essential services.

• Homeless persons clearly represent an acute expression of housingneed (one-bed units). Figures for 1999 reveal that 33 homeless peoplein the county were in need of social housing. The voluntary housingsector is playing an important role in meeting needs in this area.

• The particular needs of the disabled have been recognised by theplanning authorities and measures have been developed inconjunction with the voluntary/community housing associations toaddress these needs.

• The needs of travellers are covered by separate legislation. Table 5.4indicates that 18 traveller families are currently in need ofaccommodation. Louth County Council Traveller AccommodationProgramme 2000-04 (as adopted by the Council on 24 January 2000)estimated that 10 families will require accommodation during thelifetime of the plan (5 families are in urgent need of accommodation).It is proposed that families with urgent accommodation needs (5) willbe met through: Small Group Housing Scheme (3 families) andindividual single house construction (2 families).

5.2.8 Summary Social and Affordable Housing Policy

The social and affordable housing policy developed by the planning authorityis primarily focused on addressing those housing needs identified underSection 9 of the Housing Act, 1988, and on fulfilling the authorities obligationsin relation to the affordable accommodation needs of eligible persons underPart V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000. A number of importantprinciples have been recognised by the planning authority in the preparationof this model housing strategy, and these principles will continue to informthe actions of the authority in implementing the strategy. Among theseprinciples are the following:

• The planning authority will engage in active dialogue with developersin relation to the operation of Part V. In particular, dialogue on thenegotiation of the transfer of land or sites will be opened at the earliestpossible stage in pre-planning discussions.

50


• In negotiating agreements with developers, the planning authoritywill have due regard to the business environment in which developersoperate.

• The planning authority will consult in particular with the voluntaryand co-operative housing sector, with a view to extending the role andparticipation of the sector in the provision of social and affordablehousing.

• For the purposes of promoting social integration, the planningauthority would prefer to reach agreement with the developer for theprovision of houses (rather than sites or land). In some instances thepromotion of social integration may be served by introducing nofurther social and affordable housing into an area, or by introducing anamount of social and affordable housing which is at a lowerpercentage than that generally provided for in the strategy. Thequestion of social integration will be considered on a case-by-casebasis, and decisions relating to street level integration or thedevelopment of areas on the basis of tenure, will have regard toexisting housing patterns in the area in question, existing facilities inthe area, and arrangements for the overall management of thedevelopment.

• Aside from developers and house builders, the planning authority willalso maintain a dialogue as necessary with other stakeholders in thedevelopment process such as resident and community groups, andcommercial and business interests in a particular area.

• Through the period of this development plan, it will be the intentionof the planning authority to ensure that the design and mix of housesto be delivered under the multi-annual local authority house buildingprogramme should be as fully aligned as possible with the householdtypes identified in Table 5.4 above.

• The design and mix of affordable housing will be determined in thecourse of negotiating agreements with developers under Part V.

In general, it will be the strategy of the planning authority to arrange for theprovision of both social and affordable housing through the operation of PartV. It is anticipated that in the first half of this development plan, the majorityof housing provided under Part V will be for affordable housing. However,as noted previously, the balance between social and affordable housing will bereviewed at the conclusion of the current multi-annual programme inDecember 2003.

51



The social and affordable elements of the housing strategy for Louth requirethat a number of assumptions should be made. Among the most importantassumptions are the following:

• that social housing provision over the period 2004-2006 will reflect thebroad trends evident in the immediately preceding years although theway it is delivered may alter significantly towards a greaterpartnership with the private sector. In essence, intervention throughthe local authority housing programme will remain the primaryvehicle for the delivery of social housing in the early years of thestrategy, with a rebalancing after the life of the current multi-annualprogramme in 2003, with a greater proportion of the social housingneed to be met from the land reserved under Part V of the Act. It islikely, at that stage, even with intervention in the provision of socialhousing under the Part V provisions, that there will remain a need fora direct local authority housing programme in the county;

• the development of a local social and affordable policy is dependentupon a consultation process by the planning authorities in Louth. Thiswill help to shape local policy and gauge the community andstakeholder response to key issues such as social mix, type, etc.;

• the social housing lists have been used as the only measure of demandfor social housing;

• the application of Part V, and in particular the reservation of houses orland under Section 94(4)(c), will require the planning authorities toadopt a more proactive stance in relation to housing design, density,and mix in relation to those development sites which are subject to theprovisions of Part V. For example, this will involve the planningauthorities in a more direct and earlier dialogue with developers inmatters relating to the lay-out of sites and the number of housing unitsto be provided. This in turn should assist the planning authorities inworking with developers to ensure that housing output reflectsdemand (including that element of demand which might notnecessarily be eligible for affordable housing assistance - for example,some single person households, some first time buyers, etc.).


The principal conclusions reached in this section of the housing strategy areas follows:

52


• 7,400 additional households will be formed in the county over the lifeof the development plan;

• the application of Part V of the Act provides a mechanism to meet 870of these new household formations;

• the planning authority will aim to achieve a level of housing provisionin excess of the rate of household formation which will reduce thecurrent combined housing waiting list;

• some 80% of cases currently remaining on the housing waiting list aresingle persons (either with or without children), and this reality needsto be more fully reflected in the design and size of future housingstock;

• some 162 houses are currently under construction or at planning stagethrough the voluntary housing sector. This level of output will need toincrease significantly if the sector is to participate more fully inhousing provision under Part V;

• it is the intention of the planning authority to work closely withprivate developers and the voluntary housing sector so as to create abusiness environment which will allow for the fullest possibledelivery of housing units over the life of the development plan.

53


54

6.1 MAIN FEATURES OF HOUSING STRATEGY

The principal features to emerge from the analysis presented in this housingstrategy are as follows:

• a total of 7,400 new households are expected to be formed in Louthover the period of the plan;

• over the course of the development plan, an average of 27 % of newhousehold formations will experience affordability problems (asdefined in Section 93(1) of the Act) in attempting to provide for theirown housing needs;

• as far as possible, the planning authority will attempt to address thisneed while maintaining an emphasis on sustainable development;

• the availability of zoned and serviced land is not expected to act as aconstraint over the course of the development plan;

• as provided for in Section 94(4)(c) of the Act, the planning authoritywill as a general policy reserve the maximum permissible 20% of landzoned for residential, or for a mix of residential and other uses. In allcases however, regard will be had to the particular circumstances(existing housing mix, location, planning requirements, etc) of thedevelopment in question;

• the planning authority expects to work in partnership with privatedevelopers and with the voluntary housing sector in delivering a totalof 870 housing units under the provisions of Part V;

• the planning authority will consult with all relevant stakeholders inarriving at final decisions relating to housing mix and socialintegration;

• the planning authority intends to reduce the current housing waitinglists over the course of this development plan;

• the planning authority is concerned to promote the principles ofsustainable development, and so the spatial distribution of futurehousing will reflect an emphasis on the continued ordereddevelopment of the principal urban centres of Dundalk, Drogheda,Blackrock/Haynestown, and Ardee.

6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

55

The model housing strategy is designed to assist planning authorities in addressingthe following particular provisions of Part V of the Planning and Development Act,2000.

Sections 94(1)(a) and (d)Requires planning authorities to make a strategy for the housing of the existing andfuture population of the area, and that such a strategy should relate to the period ofthe development plan.

Section 94(3)(b)Requires planning authorities to ensure that housing is available for persons whohave different levels of income.

Section 94(3)(c)Requires planning authorities to ensure that a mixture of house types and sizes isdeveloped to reasonably match the requirements of the different categories ofhouseholds.

Section 94(3)(d)Requires planning authorities to counteract undue segregation in housing on thebasis of social background.

Section 94(4)(c)Requires planning authorities to ensure that housing strategies make adequateprovision for social and affordable housing by reserving up to 20% of land zoned forresidential use or a mixture of residential and other uses.

Section 95(1)(a) Requires planning authorities to ensure that sufficient and suitable land is zoned forresidential use.

Sections 96(2) and (3)Entitles planning authorities to require applicants for planning permission, or anyother person with an interest in the land to which the application relates, to enter intoan agreement for the development of housing in accordance with Section 95(1)(b).

Section 98(2) Requires planning authorities to establish a scheme for the order of priority to beaccorded to eligible persons.

APPENDIX A: SPECIFIC SECTIONS OF PARTV ADDRESSED IN THE HOUSING STRATEGY

56

Table B.1 Demographic Trends, County Louth

Note: The annual rate of natural increase of 6.69 per 1,000 average population shown in Table

B.1 has been derived as follows:

Average population between 1986 and 1991 = (91810 + 90724) / 2 = 91267

Natural change in population = 3,053

Natural change per 1,000 average population = (3053 / 91.267) = 33.451

Annual Rate of natural change per 1,000 population = (33.451 / 5) = 6.69*

* The figure of 33.451 is divided by 5 to reflect the five-year inter-censal period.

The other annual rates per 1,000 have been derived in a similarfashion.

_____________________________________

5 This indicates that 4,139 persons left Louth between 1986 and 1991.

APPENDIX B: POPULATION DATA - LOUTH

Population 1986 91,810

1991 90,724

1996 92,166

Natural Change 1986-91 3,053

1991-96 2,240

Net Migration 1986-91 -4,1395

1991-96 -798

Annual Rates per 1,000 Average Population

Natural Increase 1986-91 6.69

1991-96 4.89

Net Migration 1986-91 -9.07

1991-96 -1.74

Table B.2 Demographic Tends, County Louth

Source: Department of the Environment and Local Government Housing Statistics Bulletin, and

Louth Local Authorities. The figure for 2000 is an estimate.

Table B.3 Household Numbers and Household Sizes – Louth

Source: CSO, Census of Population

Table B.4 Population and Households 1996-2000

Note: The 1996 figures in Table B.4 differ from those shown in Table B.3 as the latter referred only to

private households. Table B.4 applies assumed household size to develop corresponding

population estimates.

57

Appendix B

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

House Completions 677 977 969 1,191 1,171 1,581 1,460

Planing Permissions - - - 1,613 1,563 2,508

Year Private Households Numbers of People Average Household

in Private Households Size

1981 22,885 86,015 3.76

1986 24,623 89,857 3.65

1991 25,916 88,792 3.43

1996 28,133 90,342 3.21

Year House Total Households Average Household Total Population

Completions Size

1996 969 28,712 3.21 92,166

1997 1,191 29,681 3.17 94,089

1998 1,171 30,872 3.13 96,630

1999 1,581 32,043 3.09 99,013

Table B.5 Natural Increase in Louth Population, 1996-2006

* Rate of Natural Increase per 1,000 Population

58

Appendix B

Year Natural Rate of Natural Average Total Additional

Increase in Natural Increase Household Households Households

Population Increase* Size

1996 92,166 3.59 331 3.21 28,712

1997 92,497 3.59 332 3.17 29,179 467

1998 92,829 3.59 333 3.13 29,658 479

1999 93,162 3.59 334 3.09 30,150 492

2000 93,497 3.59 336 3.05 30,655 505

2001 93,832 2.63 247 3.01 31,174 519

2002 94,079 2.63 247 2.97 31,676 502

2003 94,327 2.63 248 2.93 32,193 517

2004 94,575 2.63 249 2.89 32,725 532

2005 94,823 2.63 249 2.85 33,271 546

2006 95,073 2.63 250 2.81 33,834 563

59

Table C.1 Household Incomes - National (1994/95)

Source: CSO, Household Budget Survey, 1994/95

Table C.2 National and Louth per Capita Household Disposable Income (IR£)

Source: CSO, Household Incomes Regions and Counties, 1991-1997

APPENDIX C: INCOME DATA - LOUTH

Income range Weekly Disposable % of all Rolling Average Average Annual

Income (IR£) Households Disposable Weekly Disposable

in each Category Household Income Household

(IR£) Income (IR£)

1st Decile <£77.92 11.57 62.75 3,263

2nd Decile <£121.60 10.54 98.25 5,109

3rd Decile <£154.70 9.48 133.84 6,960

4th Decile <£206.39 9.60 173.72 9,033

5th Decile <£268.76 9.74 215.16 11,188

6th Decile <£340.89 9.56 264.04 13,730

7th Decile <£425.89 9.81 321.60 16,723

8th Decile <£524.18 9.58 384.41 19,989

9th Decile <£698.69 9.78 469.92 24,436

10th Decile >£698.69 10.34 695.31 36,156

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

State 5,749 5,954 6,367 6,510 7,069 7,600 8,527

Louth 5,578 5,800 6,202 6,323 6,877 7,366 8,231

Louth as a % of State 97.0 97.4 97.4 97.1 97.3 96.9 96.5

60

Table D.1 Average House Prices 1995-1999 (IR£)

Source: Department of the Environment and Local Government

Table D.2 Estimated 1999 Housing Stock Value Distribution

Table D.3 House Price Increase Projections assumed for this exercise

Source: The Housing Market in Ireland: An Economic Evaluation of Trends and Prospects (June

2000). These are national figures and predate the measures in the Government Action on

Housing (June 2000).

APPENDIX D: HOUSE PRICE DATA - LOUTH

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Louth 51,081 56,846 68,319 76,755 100,863

State 60,912 66,174 83,461 96,181 119,953

Range (IR£) % of all Louth Houses

0 to 50,000 5.8

50,000 to 70,000 12.5

70,000 to 90,000 25.9

90,000 to 110,000 21.6

110,000 to 130,000 12.7

130,000 to 150,000 9.1

150,000 to 170,000 4.3

170,000 to 190,000 2.9

190,000 to 210,000 1.7

210,000 and over 3.5

Total 100.0

Year Annual % Increase projected for:

New Houses Second-hand Houses Average

2000 17 19 18

2001 15 17 16

2002 12 14 13

2003 9 11 10

2004 8 9 8.5

2005 7 8 7.5

61

Section 93(1) of the Planning and Development Act, 2000, defines an eligible personas a "person who is in need of accommodation and whose income would not be adequate tomeet the payments on a mortgage for the purchase of a house to meet his or her accommodationneeds because the payments calculated over the course of a year would exceed 35 per cent ofthat person's annual income net of income tax and pay related social insurance".

The nature of this definition requires planning authorities to relate the mortgagerepayment on a house of a particular price to the after-tax income (as defined above)of an applicant. If the monthly cost of servicing a mortgage (for a given house price)is greater than 35% of the applicants after-tax income, then the applicant can bedeemed eligible as defined in Section 93(1).

In practice, it is expected that planning authorities will apply this definition to housesin the lowest available price band in the county - it is in this sense that the term "fora given house price" is used above.

To assess eligibility under Section 93(1), the following annuity formula was used tocompare monthly after-tax income with the monthly mortgage servicing costsassociated with a particular house:

1 - (1+i) -n

PV = Pt __________ i

where,

PV = total loan size(no greater than 90% of Market Value - Section 93(1))

Pt = monthly repayment amounti = monthly interest raten = number of months over which the loan is to be paid

APPENDIX E: ANNUITY FORMULA

62

Louth County Development Plan, 1997

The county plan does not contain any residential land use zonings. The plan aims toconsolidate existing settlements by directing new housing development to thesesettlements through the application of restrictive policies on one-off housing andribbon development. This policy tends to allow settlements maintain their separateidentity. The policy also supports the concerns of sustainable development to lowerthe demand for travel, restrict urban sprawl, and to make more efficient use ofservices.

There is a particular need for social and affordable housing to be located close toservices and public transport. The plan recognises this in recommending that landacquisition for public sector housing should be concentrated in larger settlements,thus avoiding segregation and making more efficient use of existing services andfacilities. The plan limits new public sector housing schemes to a maximum of 30units.

Blackrock Development Plan, 1997 and Draft Blackrock/HaynestownDevelopment Plan, 1999

A high level of development pressure led to a review of the Blackrock DevelopmentPlan, and the publication of the Draft Blackrock / Haynestown Development Plan in1999. This review resulted in the plan area being expanded to include a significantlylarger area of residential zoning that extends to the southern boundary of DundalkUDC. This is likely to result in the towns of Dundalk and Blackrock merging to createa single urban area. Continuing development pressures in the area will weaken thecharacter of Blackrock village and its role as a service and commercial centre, whichwould be contrary to the declared goal in the development plan.

The need to make more efficient use of land and services in the area has beenrecognised in the promotion of higher density residential development and theprevention of one-off housing. Appropriate residential density levels are identified inthe plan as being not less than 16 houses per hectare. The need for greater socialintegration and implementation of the Council's social housing programme has alsobeen stated in the plan.

Ardee Development Plan, 1997

Ardee is recognised as an expanding residential centre with new residentialdevelopments being encouraged in, and adjacent to, the town centre on aneighbourhood principal so that each residential development has reasonable accessto social and commercial facilities. The plan does not however contain any specificresidential density guidelines or policies on the prevention of ribbon development.

APPENDIX F: SUMMARY ANALYSIS OFDEVELOPMENT PLANS

The town is recognised as an area with a high demand for public sector housing andpublic sector developments are limited to less than 50 units.

Corporation of Drogheda Development Plan, 1999

The plan is based on sustainable development principles and encourages theintegration of housing types through promoting a greater social mix of housing byproviding private sites within public housing areas as well as a mix of housing typesto cater for different housing requirements. However, the plan lacks a cleardevelopment strategy for guiding residential development, except for land-usezonings, within the Borough boundary. No residential density guidelines have beenstated in the plan, nor are policies on the further expansion of the town other than thatthe plan will facilitate and provide for both public and private housing needsassociated with the growth of the population.

Dundalk Urban District Council Development Plan, 1996

The plan aims to establish a framework for the physical expansion of the town.Adequate land has been zoned to provide for residential development having regardto expected population changes and the need for choice in the location and theavailability of sites. However, the plan has made no reference to the need to increaseresidential densities, the containment of urban sprawl, or the likely impact of the M1motorway in generating pressure for residential and other development.

The plan recognises the social and economic benefits of town centre house building.The lack of town centre sites however means that not all public sector developmentscan be accommodated in the town centre, and that public sector housing will also belocated in the suburbs. The development of public sector housing in suburbanlocations, away from services and facilities, and the high limit on the size of publicsector schemes of up to 100, may compound the further segregation of public sectorhousing from other residential areas as well as from services and facilities.

63

Appendix F

64

Louth County Development Plan

• Establish land-use zoning plan for the environs of Drogheda;

• land-use zoning plans for Annagassan, Castlebellingham, Clogherhead,Collon, Dromiskin, Dunleer, Knockbridge, Lordship, Louth, Omeath,Tallanstown, Termonfeckin, Tinure and Tullyallen;

• consolidation of existing settlements rather than the development of one-offhousing;

• policy to prevent one-off housing in the countryside especially where thedevelopment would not be in keeping with its setting would represent avisual intrusion;

• policy to promote increased residential densities;

• development strategy to identify a hierarchy of settlements below Drogheda,Dundalk, Blackrock and Ardee. Development Strategy should aim to allocatenew housing into an identified next tier of settlements taking heed of the needto reduce travel and to promote other sustainable development objectives;

• stronger policies on the need to reduce urban sprawl and maintain clearerphysical breaks between the edges of settlements and countryside;

• policy to develop 20% of residential zoned land for social and affordablehousing under Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000. While thiswill be adopted as a general policy, the planning authority will neverthelesscontinue to have regard to the particular circumstances of each case. Wherethe planning authority believe that the circumstances surrounding aparticular development warrant it, a percentage lower than 20% may bereserved for social and affordable housing;

• policy to encourage integration of social and affordable housing withindevelopments, and for these housing units to be located within thedevelopment as close as possible to public transport and other facilities.

Blackrock/Haynestown Development Plan

• Policy on the need to reduce urban sprawl;

• stronger policies on the need to reduce urban sprawl towards Dundalk, andmaintain clearer physical breaks between edges of settlements andcountryside;

APPENDIX G: REVISION TO DEVELOPMENT PLANS

• policy to restrict ribbon development;

• policy to prevent one-off housing in the countryside especially where thedevelopment would be unsympathetic and cause a visual intrusion to itssetting;

• promote infill development;

• promote development of local facilities to serve the community;

• policy to develop 20% of residential zoned land for social and affordablehousing under Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000;

• policy to encourage integration of social and affordable housing withindevelopments and for these housing units to be located within thedevelopment as close as possible to public transport and other facilities.

Ardee Development Plan

• Policy to promote an increase in residential densities;

• policy to prevent one-off housing in the countryside especially where thedevelopment would be unsympathetic and cause a visual intrusion to itssetting;

• stronger policies on the need to reduce urban sprawl and maintain clearerphysical breaks between edges of settlements and countryside;




Drogheda Corporation Development Plan

• Policy to promote increase in residential densities;



Appendix G

65


Dundalk UDC Development Plan

• Policy to support sustainable development principles and sustainableobjectives such as reduction in the need to travel;

• policy to promote an increase in residential densities;



• policy on the need to integrate social/affordable housing with private sectorhousing;


• policy to encourage integration of social and affordable housing withinprivate developments, and for these housing units to be located within thedevelopment as close as possible to public transport and other facilities.

Appendix G

66

Part 2:

Step - by - Step Guide

This Step-by-Step Guide has been prepared to reflect the process adopted inpreparing the model housing strategy for Louth and will be of use to planningauthorities in developing their own housing strategies as required under Part V of thePlanning and Development Act, 2000.

The main features of the Step-by-Step Guide are as follows:

• a presentation of the sequence and structure of tasks to be undertaken;• an overview of the main information resources to be accessed;• where applicable, the assumptions that may be made;• a description of the interim outputs to be secured and their inter-relationships.

The Step-by-Step Guide contains six steps as follows:

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6

Each step consists of a number of sub-steps. Each sub-step is analysed within thefollowing template.

The Step-by-Step Guide should be read in conjunction with the model housingstrategy for Louth and the Guidelines issued to planning authorities. Particular noteshould be taken of some of the Louth specific features which have been reflected inthe model strategy. Some of these features may not be applicable in other counties.Equally, it should be borne in mind that other counties may have some particularfeatures or circumstances which are unique to their area. It will be necessary forplanning authorities to review in particular such unique features, and to draw uponthe structure of this Step-by-Step Guide as a means of considering where and howsuch features should be reflected in their own housing strategy.

GettingStarted

DemandAnalysis

Supply &Infrastructure

Social &AffordableHousing

PolicyResponse

Consult &Finalise

The analysis within each step and sub-step focuses on theactions which were taken to progress the work of preparing theLouth housing strategy. The emphasis therefore is upon the setof defined tasks which were carried out at each stage, the inputsneeded to prepare for these tasks, any assumptions which weremade, and the output or consequence of this activity. In usingthis guide, it is important that objectives should be carefullyconsidered at each step and sub-step, and the subsequentsequence and structure of thought adhered to.

Objective

Inputs

Tasks

Outputs

Assumptions

INTRODUCTION TO STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE

Page

Introduction to Step-by-Step Guide

1. Getting Started 1

2. Demand Analysis 2

3. Supply and Infrastructure 9

4. Social and Affordable Housing 14

5. Policy Response 21

6. Consult and Finalise 22

APPENDIX A: Annuity Formula - worked example using 2335% affordability threshold

Contents

1

1. GETTING STARTED

Objective • To ensure that the housing strategy is based on Part V of thePlanning and Development Act, 2000.

Inputs • Planning and Development Act, 2000 (Part V in particular).

• Planning and Development Act, 2000, Part V Guidelines.

• Planning authorities’ housing policies.

Tasks a) Review Government policy on housing.

b) Review regional authority policy on housing.

c) Review planning authority policy on housing.

d) Identify relevant stakeholders in the housing strategy.

e) Establish resources and timeframe for the work programme.

Outputs • Understanding of policy objectives as applied at central, regionaland local government level.

• Resources and timeframe available to support the housing strategy.

Assumptions • Availability of local authority policies on housing (see Step 4.1 in theStep-by-Step Guide).

Sub-Step 1.1 Identify Significance of Part V within Existing Local AuthorityHousing Policies

2

Objective • To ensure that the housing strategy is based on reliable populationand household data (both current data and projected data over thetimeframe of the development plan).

Inputs • Latest Census of Population (currently 1996).• Central Statistics Office National Population Projections.• County-specific demographic data (where available).• House completions from Department of the Environment and

Local Government (Housing Statistics Bulletin).• Regional Planning Guidelines. • Household Planning Permissions.

Tasks a) Identify the natural (%) rate of population increase in the countyfrom 1986 to 1991 and from 1991 to 1996.

b) Identify net migration flows of population in/out of the county.c) Identify annual house completions in the county from 1996 to 2000,

and sum each year to develop cumulative "total households" overthe period.

d) Identify the average annual number of house completions from1996 to 2000.

e) Identify number of "Private Households" and "Average HouseholdSize" from 1981 to 1986 to 1991 to 1996.

f) Identify the annual rate and direction of change in household size. g) Multiply total households over the period 1996 to 2000, by the

average household size for the equivalent year, to arrive atestimated county population.

h) Compare the population measures derived at (a) and (g) above anddecide on the population trend which best reflects circumstances inthe county.

i) Using the average annual number of house completions identifiedat (d) above, project total household numbers up to 2006.

j) Using the annual rate of change in household size identified at (f)above, project anticipated household size up to 2006.

Sub-Step 2.1 Project Population and Household Data

2. DEMAND ANALYSIS

___________________________________

1 A reference to a particular table number in this document refers to the table in the model housingstrategy unless otherwise stated.

3

Demand Analysis

k) Using the total household numbers derived at (i) above, identifythe incremental year-on-year changes from 2000 to 2006 tocompute new household formations over that period.

l) Present the data derived at (i) (j) and (k) above in a common table(see Table 3.1 of the model housing strategy1).

Outputs • Population, total household, household size, and new householdformations forecasts.

Assumptions • The CSO has published a set of national population projections tothe year 2031, based on various sets of assumptions.

• Recent house completions and household planning permissionsdata from the Department of the Environment and LocalGovernment and the local authority provide indications of thecurrent trends.

4

Demand Analysis

Objective • To ensure that the housing strategy is based on an accurateassessment of household incomes.

Inputs • Latest Household Budget Survey (HBS), CSO (currently 1994/95).• Latest "Household Incomes - Regions and Counties", CSO (last

published February 2000).• National Accounts, CSO.• ESRI's Medium Term Review projections for national disposable

income growth up to 2006.

Tasks a) Identify national household income distribution 1994/95 (fromCSO, HBS) (see Table C.1).

b) Identify and compare disposable household income bothnationally and for the county (see Table C.2).

c) Calculate county disposable household income as a % of that in theState over the period 1991 to 1997.

d) Calculate a mean % from the results in (c) above.e) Multiply the national household income distribution at (a) above

by the mean % derived at (d) above to establish a county-specifichousehold income distribution (see Table C.2).

f) Inflate the distribution derived at (e) above by the annual rate ofgrowth in Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI), as reportedin the CSO National Accounts, up to 1999.

g) Inflate the distribution derived at (f) above, from 1999 to 2006,using the ESRI projections for national disposable income growthup to 2006 (see Table 3.3).

Outputs • Forecast county-specific household disposable income over theperiod 2000 - 2006.

Assumptions • Distribution of household incomes within the county is sufficientlyclose to the equivalent distribution in the State as a whole tovalidate the use of the latter for the county.

• Difference between county and national incomes is the same acrossall income distribution deciles.

• Number of households in the county must be identified to form abasis for the calculation of task (e).

• CSO and ESRI national income forecasts represent a sufficientlyclose fit to likely income trends in the county.

Sub-Step 2.2 Project Household Income Data

5

Demand Analysis

Objective • To ensure that the housing strategy is based on the best availablehouse price data and projections.

Inputs • Published and unpublished data available from the Department ofthe Environment and Local Government.

• Latest national house price models.

• House price data from lending agencies.

• House price data from Estate Agents/Auctioneers.

• House price data from other local (county-specific) sources.

• Standard mortgage repayments at different interest rates.

Tasks a) Identify the mean price of a house in the county and in the State asa whole between 1995 and 1999 (data available from theDepartment of the Environment and Local Government).

b) Identify % rate of price increase in the county and the State as awhole over the period 1995 to 1999 (see Table D.1).

c) Identify the value distribution of the housing stock in the county(see Table D.2).

d) Inflate the value distribution identified at (c) by price inflators foreach year from 2000 to 2005 (see Table 3.4).

Outputs • Forecast value distribution of housing stock.

• County average house prices forecasts.

• House price band inflation.

Assumptions • Price increases in the county will be the same as those forecastnationally.

• Future value distribution of housing stock in the county will reflectthe past, i.e. while house prices are increasing, their variation orrelativity to each other remains the same, hence the distributionstructure is constant.

Sub-Step 2.3 Project House Price Data

6

Demand Analysis

• House price increases for the period are based upon the mostrecent model available in The Housing Market in Ireland: AnEconomic Evaluation of Trends and Prospects (June 2000). (Note:Planning authorities should construct their own forecasts of houseprice trends in the light of experience and local circumstances.Planning authorities should obtain data regarding local price levelsand trends from local auctioneering sources and lendinginstitutions as there will be potentially significant variations inhouse prices between different areas and different segments of themarket, e.g. prices for first time purchasers (i.e. that segment of themarket which are likely to be most in need of affordable housing)tend to be well below average house prices which also reflect pricespaid for other more expensive properties. House price projectionsmay vary over the life of the strategy. A review of the strategy willbe triggered where house price inflation develops at anexceptionally high/low level, or where the rate of house priceincrease remains significantly ahead of wage inflation over aprolonged period of time (greater than 12 months)).

• That new housing development does not change the overall mix ofhousing in the county in relation to price ranges.

7

Demand Analysis

Objective • To identify the number of new household formations that may beexpected to experience affordability difficulties over each year ofthe development plan.

Inputs • Published and unpublished data provided by the Department ofthe Environment and Local Government.

• Part V of Planning & Development Act, 2000 (particularly Sections93(1) and 94(4)(c)).

Tasks (a) Identify Annuity Formula :

1 - (1+i) -n

PV = Pt __________ i

(b) Identify county-specific income distribution, 2000-2006 (see Table3.3).

(c) Identify new household formations 2000-2006 (see Table 3.1).(d) Identify approximate maximum affordable house price for each

segment of new household formations broken down by incomedistribution (see Table 3.7). See Illustration at Appendix A in thisGuide.

(e) Estimate price bands at which new housing can be anticipated tocome on the market over the period of the development plan (seeTable 3.8).

(f) Compare data in Tables 3.4 and 3.8 and identify number ofhouseholds in each year between 2000 and 2006 whose maximumaffordable house price (from Table 3.7) is below the lowest pricedhouse projected to come on the market in that year (from Table 3.8).

(g) Summarise and tabulate results from (f) above. See Section 3.4 of themodel housing strategy.

(h) For each year of the development plan, express the number of newhousehold formations with affordability difficulties as a % of thetotal household formations.

Sub-Step 2.4 Identify Affordability Thresholds

8

Demand Analysis

Outputs • Derivation of maximum affordable price for each segment of newhousehold formations over each year of the development plan.

• Derivation of anticipated price structure for new houses coming onthe market over the period of the development plan.

• Quantification of households who cannot expect to find housingprovided by the market below their maximum affordable price.

Assumptions • Numbers of new households being formed in each incomecategory is proportionate to that category's share of total existinghouseholds.

• New housing development will continue to occur in proportion tothe existing value distribution.

• Significant inter-dependencies exist among income, house priceand interest rate variables. These can be regarded as criticalvariables which may trigger a review of the housing strategy. Forexample, a significant - and enduring - increase in interest rateswill increase the numbers of households experiencing affordabilitydifficulties. Depending on the size of the interest rate change, localauthorities may need to review their housing strategy. Similartrigger points may occur where house price inflation develops atan exceptionally high/low level, or where the rate of house priceincrease remains significantly ahead of wage inflation over aprolonged period of time (greater than 12 months).

9

Objective • To ensure that the housing strategy is based on principles ofsustainable development. In particular to ensure that the strategycontributes to the following principles of good planning practice:

a) reduction in the need for transport;b) reduction in urban sprawl;c) maintenance of clear distinction between urban and rural

areas;d) promotion of higher residential densities.

Inputs • Sustainable Development: A Strategy for Ireland.• Guidelines for Planning Authorities on Residential Density.• Regional planning guidelines (as appropriate).• Land-use planning and transportation studies (as appropriate). • The outcomes from Step 2.• Employment trends in the county (where and how much).• Transport and other infrastructure (existing and planned).

Tasks (a) Review existing development plans. (See Appendix F of the model

housing strategy).

(b) Identify the level of residential zoned land.

(c) Identify undeveloped residential zoned land (see Table 4.1).

(d) Identify the servicing of undeveloped residential zoned land.

(e) Identify the relationship between undeveloped residential zoned

land, transport, retail, community, and amenity infrastructure.

Outputs • Quantification of land availability and its suitability for housingdevelopment (based on principles of sustainable development).

Assumptions • The input documents above are available, up-to-date and continueto describe current relevant circumstances within the county.

3. SUPPLY AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Sub-Step 3.1 Identify Policy Context and Policy Guidelines

10

Supply and Infrastructure

Objective • To identify the current pattern of development within existingsettlements.

Inputs • County/town development plan.

• Planning applications and approvals.

• Level of house completions.

Tasks (a) Identify constraints on development e.g. infrastructure.

(b) Identify levels and location of development pressure within theplanning area (see Section 4.2.3 of the model housing strategy).

(c) Examine the planning register and quantify planning permissionsgranted over previous years.

(d) Identify the factors stimulating development pressure, e.g.transportation improvements.

(e) Explore relationship between development pressure, urbangenerated and one-off housing demand.

(f) Identify housing completions in the county.

(g) Identify areas of employment.

Outputs • Identification of areas under development pressure and factorswhich are stimulating/constraining development.

Assumptions • Sustainable development is acknowledged and acted upon as theprimary guiding principle.

• Number of households accords with the number of housing units.

Sub-Step 3.2 Identify County Development Patterns

11


Objective • To consider the current and planned levels of infrastructureprovision within the county as an input to determining housingsupply.



• Infrastructure plans.

Tasks (a) Identify current infrastructure within the county in terms of:

" transportation;" water and sewerage services;" social and economic infrastructure;" amenity, heritage and recreation

(see Sections 4.2.4 to 4.2.7 of the model housing strategy).

(b) Identify where infrastructure is stimulating/constrainingdevelopment.

(c) Identify future infrastructure proposals.

Outputs • Identification of the housing development opportunities andconstraints resulting from infrastructure provision within thecounty.

Assumptions • Information available on planned additions to countyinfrastructure.

• Consultation with major providers of infrastructure.

Sub-Step 3.3 Identify Current and Planned Infrastructure Provision

12


Objective • To take account in the housing strategy of development capacitywithin the county.



• Zoning information.

Tasks (a) Identify the need to accommodate future housing growth – subjectto a range of factors that particularly include:

" the amount of serviced and unserviced residentially zonedland;

" the amount of other land suitable for development;" constraints and limits on the provision of water supply and

drainage;" constraints and limits on the provision of other physical and

social infrastructure;" access, including public transport;" topographical constraints;" the areas of high amenity or nature conservation value.

(b) Identify the capacity of undeveloped residential zoned land. Thisshould be estimated at a density that is in accordance with theResidential Density Guidelines (see Table 4.2).

(c) Identify further lands requiring zoning.

(d) Identify whether undeveloped residential zoned land has thecapacity to accommodate forecasted household increases (see Table4.2).

(e) Identify whether there are constraints on utilising the developmentof residential zoned land - servicing and other infrastructure.

Outputs • Quantification of development capacity.

Assumptions • Higher density in accordance with Residential Density Guidelinestargeted for residential developments.

• Factors associated with servicing zoned land - for example, thelikely timeframe zoned land can be readily serviced within.

Sub-Step 3.4 Identify Development Capacity

13


Objective • To provide a spatial distribution to future housing developmentsin accordance with sustainable development principles.

• To provide the spatial distribution for the identified social andaffordable housing need (from Step 2 of Step-by-Step Guide).

Inputs • Identified social and affordable housing need for the county. • Existing housing patterns and settlements.• County/town development plan.• Sustainable development strategy.• Residential Development Guidelines.• Regional plans / LUTS.

Tasks (a) Identify population and household increases to be catered for.(b) Assess options for spatial distribution of future housing

development (see Table 4.3).(c) Consider whether development pressure should be

accommodated, e.g. contain development within existingsettlements and restrict one-off housing.

(d) Consider impact of additional housing in each settlement.(e) Identify which options provide the most sustainable outcome.(f) Identify current land bank of planning authorities (see Table 4.4).(g) Identify spatial distribution of population changes based on

infrastructure, levels of zoning, transportation, employment andother features (see Table 4.3).

(h) Identify mix of house types and sizes.

Outputs • Identification of optimum housing distribution within the county(based on principles of sustainable development).

Assumptions • Policies adopted within the county in relation to balancing goodplanning principles, population growth and migration andhousing demand.

• Higher household sizes in rural locations as opposed to urbanareas.

• Higher percentage of social housing is more appropriate inlocations with facilities such as schools, churches, shopping andpublic transport.

Sub-Step 3.5 Provide a Spatial Dimension to the Housing Forecasts

14

Objective • To establish a clearly articulated statement regarding the futuredevelopment of social and affordable housing in the county thatreflects, as far as possible, a consensus view of the majorstakeholders.

Inputs • Central/regional government policy objectives.

• Planning decisions adopted within the county.

• Housing policy adopted within the county.

Tasks a) Prepare a statement of local social and affordable housing policieswhich sets out objectives for the county in relation to, inter alia:

" amount of housing;" housing densities;" type of housing;" provision of housing for people with special needs;" ownership and rental tenure;" social integration;" fostering the voluntary housing sector.

b) Policy objectives should be validated through consultations with,inter alia:" local housing authority representatives;" voluntary housing associations;" social housing associations;" relevant community groups;" representatives of the local development and real estate

sectors.

Outputs • Policy direction for social and affordable housing.

4. SOCIAL AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING

Sub-Step 4.1 Develop Local Social and Affordable Housing Policies

15


Objective • To ensure optimal use of the extant social housing stock.

Inputs • Social Housing Register.

• Social housing demand.

• Social housing vacancy rates.

• Social housing utilisation rates.

Tasks (a) Forecast vacancy rate over the planning period. Where vacancyforecasts are not available, apply actual average or trend vacancyrates.

(b) Assess social housing stock utilisation, where utilisation is definedas persons per bedroom. Utilisation rates should be calculated foreach housing type (i.e. one bedroom, two bedrooms, etc.).

(c) Where utilisation rates suggest over-crowding, an analysis of theextent of over-crowding should be undertaken to assess whetheradditional stock is required for the existing tenant mix.

(d) Where utilisation rates suggest under-utilisation, planningauthorities should consider how to achieve better use of theexisting stock through active management (e.g. encouraging smallhouseholds out of large houses by, say, offering pensioner units fortenants whose children have left home).

(e) On the basis of the social housing needs assessment (gross socialhousing demand), estimate the “net” demand for social housingthrough adjusting the gross demand estimates on the basis offorecast vacancy rates and the extent of over-crowding or activemanagement of under-utilised stock

Outputs • Social housing vacancy forecasts.

• Assessment of the level of over-crowding/under-utilisation of theextant social housing stock.

• “Net” social housing need.

Sub-Step 4.2 Review Utilisation of Existing Social Housing Stock

16


Objective • To ensure that planning authorities consider social housing in itsentirety by looking at both the condition of the extant stock ofsocial housing as well as the flow of additional dwellings.

Inputs • Local authority social housing condition reports.

• Voluntary Housing Associations’ business plans.

Tasks (a) Set out the county’s social housing redevelopment requirementsbased on condition of the stock, community amenity and socialperception of the area.

(b) Undertake an analysis of the age of the extant social housing stockin the county (see Section 5.2.2 of the model housing strategy).

(c) Report on the condition of the stock in excess of 20-25 years of age.

(d) Engage in consultation with stakeholders to determineredevelopment priorities.

(e) Establish a view on the redevelopment priorities within the county

Outputs • Social housing condition report.

• Social housing redevelopment priorities.

Sub-Step 4.3 Review Current Social Housing Stock Standards

17


Objective • To agree a common view on the appropriate level of provision ofsocial housing within the county.

Inputs • Local social and affordable housing policies.

• Private demand forecasts.

• Net social and affordable housing needs forecasts.

• Constraints impacting social housing provision.

• Redevelopment priorities.

Tasks a) Develop a policy position on the appropriate provision ofadditional social housing, having regard to:

" identified social and affordable housing needs (see Table 3.9);" available resources and land holdings;" central government multi-annual allocation under local

authority housing programme;" central Government allocations for voluntary housing;" proceeds from sale of social housing;" reserved development land under the provisions of the Act;" redevelopment priorities (see Section 4.3 of the model housing

strategy);" capacity of planning authority and voluntary housing

associations to deliver the programme;" community acceptance of development plans (see Tables 5.1,

5.2, 5.3, and 5.4).

b) Consult with private developers and voluntary housingassociations interested in participating in the housing programmefor the county.

Outputs • Assessment of the level of provision of social housing achievableover the period of the development plan, and the appropriatemeans to achieve it.

Sub-Step 4.4 Decide the Amount of Provision of Social Housing

18


Objective • To calculate the total planned social and affordable housingprovision in the county.

Inputs • Step 2.4 of Step-by-Step Guide.

• Step 4.4 of Step-by-Step Guide.

Tasks (a) Quantify the total amount of social and affordable housing to beprovided over the housing strategy as estimated in 2.4 and 4.4, andindicate the proposed providing organisation (see Table 5.4 of themodel housing strategy for characteristics of social housing lists).

(b) Identify impact on housing waiting list over the course of thedevelopment plan.

Outputs • Table of total planned social and affordable housing.

Sub-Step 4.5 Identify Planned Social and Affordable Housing Provision

19


Objective • To develop a considered view of the appropriate type of social andaffordable housing to be provided.

Inputs • Local social and affordable housing policies (having particularregard to objectives concerning densities and the provision ofhousing for people with disabilities and special needs groups).

• Social and affordable housing needs forecasts.• Profile of the extant social housing stock (by size and type).• Understanding of the constraints impacting on social and

affordable housing provision.• Identified reserved lands under Section 94(4)(c) of the Act.

Tasks • Develop a profile of the size (e.g. 1, 2, 3, 3+ bedroom units) andtype (medium density, pensioners accommodation, etc.) of socialand affordable housing units required, having regard to:

" Social and affordable housing policies;" Social and affordable housing demand forecasts;" Number and composition of household units on existing

housing waiting list;" Existing social housing stock; " The differential cost of various size and types of unit; " Special needs housing requirements. This should be set out in

the local social and affordable housing policies (see Section5.2.7 and Table 5.4 of the model housing strategy).

Outputs • Profile of existing household size and mix (on waiting list);• Profile of proposed housing by type;• Identification of "goodness-of-fit" between likely social and

affordable housing demand, and existing housing stock;• Measures identified to improve "goodness-of-fit" in future

building programmes; • Profile of the desired level of provision of social and affordable

housing over the period of the development plan; • Profile of the desired level of social housing redevelopment over

the period of the development plan.• Estimate of the resources required to deliver the desired provision

of social and affordable housing over the period of thedevelopment plan.

• Statement on the design, density, and planning standards ofproposed new developments.

• Established arrangements for liaison with providers of housing.

Sub-Step 4.6 Decide on the Type of Social and Affordable Housing

20


Assumptions • Financial resources can be estimated with reasonable certainty.• Preparedness of both the planning authority and developers to act

flexibly in an iterative planning process.• Sufficient resources available to planning authorities to develop

proactive policies on design, densities, and planning features ofproposed new developments, and sufficient time availability toliase with private developers and housing associations to briefthem on standards/expectations.

21

Objective • To develop a timeframe within the period of the development planwhich indicates:

" the required provision of new social and affordable housing bytype;

" the required redevelopment of social housing; " the expected arrangements through which such provision and

redevelopment is to be delivered; " the timeframe over which such delivery is to be managed.

Inputs • Step 1 (review of policy environment, Step-by-Step Guide).

• Step 2 (housing demand estimates).

• Step 3 (housing supply and planning considerations).

• Step 4 (social and affordable considerations).

Tasks (a) Develop a timeline showing annual housing delivery over theperiod of the development plan.

(b) Develop a list of those expected to be involved in housing delivery(local authority, private developers, voluntary, community, and co-operative sectors) and their anticipated output over each year ofthe development plan.

(c) Develop a statement of resource need over each year of thedevelopment plan (resources include financial capital, servicedsites, tender and procurement arrangements).

(d) Develop a profile of the amount of land likely to be reserved, underSection 94(4)(c), each year during the period of the developmentplan.

(e) Develop arrangements to liase with developers in relation todesign, densities, and planning standards of proposed newdevelopments.

(f) Develop arrangements to work collaboratively with privatedevelopers in the provision of social and affordable housing.

(g) Assess the extent to which social and affordable housing objectivescan be met through partnership arrangements with otherinterested parties.

(h) Develop arrangements to liase with community groups to identifyperceptions and attitudes among communities in relation toproposed developments.

5. POLICY RESPONSE

Sub-Step 5.1 Establish a Timeframe for Social and Affordable Housing

22

Objective • To ensure stakeholder awareness and buy-in to the housingstrategy.

Inputs • Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000.

• Model housing strategy.

Tasks (a) Consult with senior management and staff within the county.

(b) Consult with elected members.

(c) Consult with community, voluntary, and co-operative sector.

(d) Consult with private housing developers.

(e) Consult with existing residents groups.

(f) Develop clear housing standards and expectations.

(g) Communicate and defend these standards and expectations with

stakeholder groups.

Outputs • Acknowledgement of the validity and merit of the policiesrepresented in the housing strategy.

• Agreed format and timeframe for implementation.

• Agreed re-writes and revisions (as required).

Assumptions • The housing strategy represents a reasonable and balancedassessment of social and affordable housing need.

6. CONSULT AND FINALISE

Sub-Step 6.1 Establish fullest possible consultation with stakeholders

23

APPENDIX A: ANNUITY FORMULA - worked example using35% affordability threshold

The Annuity Formula used in Section 3.2.5 of the model housing strategy is:

1 - (1+i) -n

PV = Pt __________ i

where:

PV = total loan size(no greater than 90% of Market Value - Section 93(1))

Pt = monthly repayment amounti = monthly interest raten = number of months over which the loan is to be paid

If we take an example from Table 3.6 of the model housing strategy. We select thelowest decile income for the year 2000, i.e. £5,473, and identify the maximum houseprice such a household could afford without breaching the 35% affordabilitythreshold set in Section 93(1) of the Act. We assume the household can borrow 90%of the value of the house in question and agree a repayment term of 25 years (300months), at an interest rate of 5% per annum. Monthly income is £456.08. If we letthe price of the house be x, and plug the other data into the formula above, we cansolve for x as follows.

0.9 x = 0.35 * 456.08 1 - (1 + 0.004166) -300

___________________0.00417

0.9 x = 0.35 * 456.08 1 - 0.28850 ___________

0.004166

09. x = 0.35 * 456.08 * ( 170.787 )0.9 x = 27262.39

x = 30291 (which, allowing for rounding error, is thecorresponding affordable house figure in Table 3.7 of themodel housing strategy)

Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 · The immediate context for this work is...

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