Part Ⅲ 证券投资 择时
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Transcript of Part Ⅲ 证券投资 择时
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Part Unit 7 Unit 8
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Unit 7 1 2 3 1 2 3
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31 20062007102007 3
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1. 300
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2.
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3.
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32 20084
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1. 300
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2.
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3.
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33 1k2DDMS34
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1. 2. 3. 4.
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Unit 7.1 1.
1 2
3
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2. 1
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2 3 4
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3. 1 2
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4. 1
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2
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5. 1 1
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2
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2 3
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6. 1
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2
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3
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7. 1
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2
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1. P1701 GDP GDP GDP GDP3 1 2Unit 7.2
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2
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2. 1 GDP2 163
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3. 1GDPGDP2GDP GDP3
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4. P17812 1 2 3
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5. 12 3
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1
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2 3
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4 1
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2 3
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6. 12
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3 1 2 3
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4 1 2 3
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7. 1 1 2
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3 1 24 1 2
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8. 1 1GDP GDP GDP 2
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3
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2 1
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2 3 4
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Unit 7.3 1. 1 2 1
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2
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3 1 2 3
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4 1 2 3
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5 1 2 3
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2. 1 1 2 3
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2 1WTO 2IMF
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3 4
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5
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Unit 7.4 1. 1 50 23
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2. 12345678
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71 GDP2123456789
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Unit 8 1 2 3 1 2 3
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4 41 3991061993219947
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36829234219433523528012916994.78
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22K 30039930020095200910kKK
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43 730120062009
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441. 19999991994232. 23003993002008
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1
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2
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45 300399300112369
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46 300399300K921RSIRSI
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8020
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1. 2. 3. 4.
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Unit 8 .1 1. 2. 3. 4.
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Unit 8 .1.1 1. 1
2P213
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2. 1 2
3
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3.
123
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Unit 8.1.2 1. 1 2
3
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2. 1234
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3. 1234. 12
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Unit 8.1.3 1. 123
2. 1K23
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3. 1MA2RSI3MACD4KD5BIAS
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Unit 8.1.4 1. 123
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4 1 2 3
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2. 1234
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3. 1 1 2 3
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23
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8[1]1212345678
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Unit 8.2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
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Unit 8.2.1 1. Wave Principle1 1 2 8 353 4 32 RNEllitt1939
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12345ABC2.
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1 18 2 5123453 3ABC23353
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abc123abc45ABC
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Unit 8.2.21. 1 1 22 1 2
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3 1 2 3 Extend wave4 1 2
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5 1 2
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2. 1A 1 2A
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2B
1 B 2 B3C 1 C 2 C
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Unit 8.2.3 1. 2. 1 5A25 35 9
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3. 13513512345112245435
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4. AC123451234512345
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5. AAcab12345c
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6.
1991234567899123456789
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235C1234551234
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7.
112345123451234123455
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21234512345
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Unit 8.2.4 1. 2. 122423BBB
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3. ABCCAABCCA
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4.
1ABCBACABACAABC
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2 BACAABCABC
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3 BACAABCABC
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5. 4B
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6. 1
2
abcxabcabcxabc
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Unit 8.2.5 1.
15325 A3
2.
1 2 C
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3 1 2 3 42 541
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3. 12C
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ABC12345
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Unit 8.2.61. Fibonacci13 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 2. 1212350.61831.61842.61850.382
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3. 0.382 0.5 0.618 0.819 1.00 1.618 2.618 4. 1
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2 153 2 19932 200151993+8=2001 20062007.102001+5=2006
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4. 1 368 94.75 10.3820.5 194.75+(36894.75) 0.5=232 2351.4% 210.6180.8191 223523594.75) 0.819=120 235(23594.75) 1=96 (120+96) 2=108 105
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312.618 3105+(235-94.75) 2.618=474 520 430.3820.51 4520(520-105) 0.5=313 520(520-105) 0.382=362 1235 (235+313+362) 3=303 308 5411.618 5308+(520-308) 1.618=651 666
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2 1 36894.75 2 0.3820.618 666 666-(666-105) 0.618=319 314.98 368
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368B331A194C 9594.07.2912352102352043086175A565B666C366X523A378453BC 235.6405.07.19
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BAC12345
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ABC12345
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8[2]1 212345C6789
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Unit 8.3 1. K2. 3. 4.
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Unit 8.3.1 KP2181. KK2. K12
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1K
2K
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3K
3. K1
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ABC
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2
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3
4
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4. K1 1
ABC
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21234
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2
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3
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Unit 8.3.2 P244
1. 1V
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2
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3
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4
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5
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2. 1V
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2
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3
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3. 1
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Unit 8.3.3 P2281. 12
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2. Trend Channel
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12345
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3. 1
2
3
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Unit 8.3.4 1. 1KK K K2 3
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2. 1 2
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3
4
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3. 1 2
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3 4
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4. 12 K3
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8[3]1 K2112K2K3K456789
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Unit 8.4 P2331. MA2. MACD3. RSI4. KD5. BIAS6.
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Unit 8.4.1MA1.
NN
2. 1
Ci---MA=Ci N
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2
MA=C11+C22+ +Cnn (1+2+3+ +n)MA=[(C1+C2) 1+(C2+C3) 2++(Cn-1+Cn)(n-1)] [21+22+ +2(n-1)MA=C112+C222+ +Cnn2 12+22+32+ n2)
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3 MAEMA EMAt
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Ct1+EMA(t-1) (n-1) nEMAt=Ct2+EMA(t-1) (n-1) n+1EMAt=
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23bsbB69sbsbssbsS
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3.
1 B
B
B
B
S
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S S S
2 N a b
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SSBB
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Unit 8.4.2 MACD1. MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence
2. MACD
1EMAnt-1(n-1)+Ct2 n+1EMAn=
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2EMA12EMA26
EMA12=(EMA12t-111+Ct2)/13 EMA26=(EMA26t-125+Ct2)/27
3DIF
DIF=EMA12EMA26
4n=9DIFDEA
DEA9=(DEA9t-18+DIFt2)/10
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=DIFDEA DIFDEAMACD
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DIFDEAMACD0bsbsbsbSbsbs
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3. MACD
1DIFDEA 0 0 DIFDEA2DIFDEA 0 0 DIFDEA3MACD4MACD
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BS
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S
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Unit 8.4.3 RSI1. RSI Wells Wilder2. RSI1
NNRS=
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2
N---81421
3RSI
4RSIRSIRSI0100RSI NN+NRSI=100
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3. RSI1RSI RSI80 RSI20
2RSI RSIRSI RSI RSIRSIRSI RSI RSI
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3RSI RSI RSI
4RSI
RSI RSI RSI
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1008050200RSIbssbsbssbsbsb
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BS
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BS
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Unit 8.4.4 KD1. KD
1KDStochastic
2KD
NKD
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2. KD1NRSVRow stochastic value RSVCtCl/ChCl100 RSV--- Ct--- Ch---N Cl---N2KD3N RSVN 9KDN 3
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3. KD
1
D>70 D
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3KD
KD KD
4 KD KD
RSIKD 0~100RSIKD
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Unit 8.4.5 BIAS1. BIAS
BIAS
2. BIAS
BIAS1MAn/Ct100
BIAS--- Man---nn Ct---
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>0
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8[4]1 MACDRSIKDBIAS.2123MACD4RSI5KD6KD7BIAS8BIAS