1. 2011-02 ()- -

2. ()- - 3. 1990 . , . , . , , . . 2010 7 2012 6 , 1 , 2 .1 . 2011 2020 . , , , 4. , . 9 , . . ,1( , ) 6( ) , 5 , 7 . , 2 , 3 , 4 , 8 , 9 . , . . . . .2011 10 5. 1 211 271 272 301. 302. 333. 423 481. (Okuns law) 482. 524 65 68 702 731 732 751. : Corrado, Hulten, and Sichel(2005, 2009) 752. : Fukao, Hamagata, Miyagawa, and Tonogi(2009) 80 6. 3. : INNODRIVE project 823 851. 852. 864 901. 902. 923. 964. 1055. 1085 , 113 118 1203 1311 1312 1331. 1332. 1373. 1414. 1463 1531. 1532. 1603. 1704 MC 184 7. 1. MC 1842. MC 1863. 1894. MC 1925 206 2084 : 2111 2112 2131. 2132. (calibration) 2143. 2164. 2185. 2203 2221. 2222. 2274 - 2291. - 2292. 2323. 2324. 2335 : (home production model) 2351. 235 8. 2. (FOC) 2363. 2404. - 2435. 2456 247 250 - 2515 2531 2532 2551. : 2552. : 2693 2791. 2802. 2874 301 304 3086 3091 3092 3111. : 3112. 3143. 3173 329 9. 1. 3292. : 3314 335 339 3427 3451 3452 3473 3501. 3 3502. 3544 3571. 3572. 3603. 3675 378 382 3848 : 3871 3872 3891. 3892. 3933. 3944. 400 10. 3 4071. : 4082. 4104 420 4249 : 4251 4252 4261. 4262. 4283 4371. 4372. 4393. 4404. 4474 448 450ABSTRACT 451 11. < 1- 1> 35< 1- 2> 37< 1- 3> -GDP 37< 1- 4> 39< 1- 5> 41< 1- 6> 43< 1- 7> 45< 1- 8> 46< 1- 9> 48< 1-10> 53< 1-11> : 60< 1-12> : 62< 1-13> : 64< 1-1> 71< 2- 1> 76< 2- 2> 77< 2- 3> 78< 2- 4> , , 80< 2- 5> 82< 2- 6> 83< 2- 7> GDP 84< 2- 8> 88< 2- 9> 89< 2-10> 94< 2-11> 97< 2-12> 2007 , 99 12. < 2-13> 106< 2-14> 109< 2-1> 120< 2-2> 122< 2-3> 124< 2-4> 128< 3- 1> 134< 3- 2> (2008) 137< 3- 3> (2008) 140< 3- 4> (2008) 141< 3- 5> OECD (2008) 148< 3- 6> OECD (2008) 149< 3- 7> 170< 3- 8> EC 178< 3- 9> 185< 4- 1> 222< 4- 2> 1 - 223< 4- 3> 2 - 223< 4- 4> 3 - 224< 4- 5> 226< 4- 6> 226< 4- 7> 1 - ( 0.5) 227< 4- 8> 2 - ( 0.5) 227< 4- 9> 1 - ( 2) 228< 4-10> 2 - ( 2) 228< 4-11> 1 - ( 0.5) 229< 4-12> 2 - ( 0.5) 229< 4-13> - 234< 4-14> - 235< 4-15> 235< 4-16> - ( ) 241 13. < 4-17> - ( ) 241< 4-18> - ( ) 241< 4-19> ( ) 242< 4-20> ( ) 242< 4-21> - ( ) 246< 4-22> - ( ) 246< 4-23> ( ) 247< 4-1> 2003, 2009 : 251< 4-2> 2003, 2009 : 251< 5- 1> EITC 257< 5- 2> EITC (2011 , ) 258< 5- 3> WTC (201011 ) 259< 5- 4> 265< 5- 5> 265< 5- 6> 200910 266< 5- 7> 285< 5- 8> 303< 5-1> 308< 5-2> (, 2010 8 ) 308< 6- 1> 315< 6- 2> (2007) 316< 6- 3> 317< 6- 4> 1 GDP () 318< 6- 5> ( ) 319< 6- 6> GDP 320< 6- 7> 323< 6- 8> 323< 6- 9> , (2007) 324< 6-10> 330< 6-11> ( ) 333 14. < 6-12> ( ) 333< 6-13> 337< 6-1> ( ) 342< 6-2> ( ) 342< 6-3> ( ) 343< 6-4> ( ) 343< 7- 1> (1996) 348< 7- 2> 3059 1 355< 7- 3> 356< 7- 4> (2009): 2 356< 7- 5> 358< 7- 6> 358< 7- 7> 359< 7- 8> 359< 7- 9> 361< 7-10> 363< 7-11> (20 ) 365< 7-12> 369< 7-13> (2 , 200309) 376< 7-14> (1 , 200609) 377< 7-15> 380< 7-1> - 20 384< 7-2> (200309) 385< 8- 1> 391< 8- 2> (19782005) 398< 8- 3> 45 1 (2007) 402< 8- 4> 5 (55 60) 405 15. < 9- 1> 427< 9- 2> (5064) (2009) 429< 9- 3> 430< 9- 4> 432< 9- 5> () 434< 9- 6> (2009) 435< 9- 7> 443< 9- 8> 445< 9- 9> 446 16. [ 1- 1] GDP 34[ 1- 2] 35[ 1- 3] 41[ 1- 4] 45[ 1- 5] 50[ 1- 6] GDP 57[ 1- 1] 10 70[ 1- 2] 71[ 3- 1] (19982008) 138[ 3- 2] (19982008) 139[ 3- 3] MC : 164[ 3- 4] MC 165[ 3- 5] JEREMIE 179[ 3- 6] JASMINE 180[ 3- 7] 190[ 3- 8] MF 204[ 5- 1] EITC 256[ 5- 2] WTC CTC 259[ 5- 3] PPE (2008 ) 260[ 5- 4] 290[ 5- 5] 291[ 6- 1] 314[ 6- 2] 322[ 6- 3] 325[ 6- 4] , Trilemma 328 17. [ 7- 1] 349[ 7- 2] 357[ 7- 3] (2 ) 366[ 7- 4] (2 ) 366[ 8- 1] 55 390[ 8- 2] 406[ 8- 3] 409[ 8- 4] 411[ 8- 5] (, 200407) 415[ 8- 6] (, 200407) 417[ 8- 7] (200407) 418[ 8- 8] (200407) 419 18. 1 . ., . 197190 19902008 ., 1990 . , ., , . , , 1990 . ., () 24 . 195596 2.042.64 19. 2 () . , , , , . 197980 199798 . , . 1980 1990 . , G-7 . , . . , 2010 ., . , 20. 3 . . , . .2 . , (computerized information), (innovative property), (competency) . FHMT(2009) . . . , . , , . , 21. 4 () . , , . , . , . . . (spill-over) . ( ) . .CHS(2005), FHMT(2009) , , , , , , . . . , 22. 5 . , . , . , . , . , ., . , . . . , , . . . EU-KLEMS .3 (MC) 23. 6 () . 90%, 40% . , . , . , , . . . , . . , , . . 24. 7 . 1970 (microcredit:MC) . . , . MC . MC . MC MC 2009 10 . MC , MC . MC . MC 25. 8 () MC MC MC . . MC .4 . , 1970, 1980 , . . , . , , , , , . , (policy perspective) . , . , (lump-sum tax) , . , - . 26. 9 . , , (-) ., , . (:EITC) , , ., - . . , () . ., , ., (shift) , . , .5 . (jobless growth) 27. 10 () , . - , . ,, , . . , . 40 , . . 2009 , 2010 . , . 28. 11 . 2 1 ( ) ., . , .6 . , . 19772007 14 OECD (Panel Granger Causality Test) . , , . , . . , , . 29. 12 () , , . , , , , . R&D , . , , , ., , (multi-track approach) . , , (intangible) (human capital-intensive) . . . . , 30. 13 . .7 . , , , . , , , . . (home production) . , . 3 (marketization) . . QUAIDS . , 20 . , 31. 14 () . , (=1) , , , , , , . , , , , , , , , . ,, , , . , , , , 1 , , , . . . , , . . , . . 32. 15 . .8 , 55 . , , (zero-sum game) , . (quantitativeexpansion) (qualitative deepening) . (labor productivity) (wage level) , . , . . , (life-time earnings) , 55 , () . . 33. 16 (), . . , . . , , , . (the need for qualitativedeepening) . , (qualitative mismatch) . 2000 , 2000 . , (reservation wage) . , 34. 17 . , , 300 , 300 . . , , , , .9 / . 10 (5064) (2549) , . , , , . 2009 OECD OECD , . . ( 57) ( 54) . , 60, 55 . / , . 35. 18 () OECD ( 60) ( 70) . , . . 2005 , - (-) . . / . 2010 , / , , , , , , . , . . 36. 19 OECD . , , OECD , . 1991 60 20 . , . , . , . , . , ( ), (/, ) . 37. 1990 , . . 1970 10 (eurosclerosis) 1980 10 (jobless growth) . , (OECD) . , . . OECD (1996) EU (2000), OECD (2006) 38. 22 () , , , , . 30 (state driven export oriented industrializationstrategy) . ,1990 . , . . () . , . (working poor) . . 2010 7 2012 6 , 1 , 2 .1 . 2011 2020 . 39. 231 .1 . . . . .2 . . .3 . .4 . , - . , , , .5 . 40. 24 () 2008 (EITC) 2010 , , . , EITC .6 . , . , , , . OECD .7 . , . (home production) . , .8 9 . 8 . , . 41. 25 , (life-time welfare) .9 , / . . 42. 1 1990 . , 19701980 . 1998 , 2003 2.8% 3 , 2009 0.2% 7 2 , (jobless growth) . 1980 ,1) 1990 1) 1970 1, 2 (oil shock) . 1980 (Eurosclerosis), 1990 10 . 43. 28 ()(jobless recovery) .2) . , . , .3) 1 , ? .4) . (trickle down) , . . , . . () 2) , , (Khemraj et al.[2006]). 3 .3) (2009) 2 .4) , . 44. 1 29 . ( ) . , . , . , . ( ) . . 2 . , . 1990 197080 . , . , . , . 3 , . . . 45. 30 () 4 .2 1. , .5) . , , . , .6) . . , . 5) , , , , , , . ln lnln 6) 0 . 46. 1 31 , . , (jobless recovery) , (jobless growth) . 199193 200103 . ,7) , , .8), 1970 , . Piacentini and Pini(2000)196095 7 OECD (, , , , ,, ) 5 10 , 1970 , 1980 . , 7) , Gordon(1993) 199192 . 1980 .8) Groshen and Potter(2003) 200103 , Aaronson et al.(2004) . 47. 32 () ., Padalino and Vivarelli(1997) G-7 (, , ,, , , ) 196073 198094 , 9) ., . , .10) (2005), (2005),(2010) . (2005) 197390 19912004 , 1990 . (2010) , 10 1970 0.49 1990( ) 0.31 200006 0.38 .11) (2005) ., (2005) 19712003 0.760.77, 0.570.67 , .9) .10) Padalino and Vivarelli(1997) .11) 1990 . 48. 1 332. . . , , , (1-1) . (1-1) , GDP . 19712008, . GDP( ) [ 1-1] . , . 1990 . [ 1-2] , 1980 1998 . . , 1990 . , .12)< 1-1> . 19712008 0.32 , 12) . 49. 34 ()[ 1-1] GDP SOC : . (SOC) , ,, .: , .197190 0.34 19902008 0.27 , . SOC 0.6 (0.28) . 197190 0.51 SOC , 19902008 -0.16 . , SOC . (1-2) 8910111213141971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007GDP681012141971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007GDP8910111213141971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007GDP681012141971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007GDP 50. 1 35 SOC 19712008 0.32 0.28 0.63 0.60 -0.4919711990 0.34 0.51 0.64 0.57 -0.3019902008 0.27 -0.16 0.57 0.66 -0.76[ 1-2] SOC : , .< 1-1> (: %): , .-50-40-30-20-10010201972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008(%)-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.01972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008(%)-0.50.00.51.01.51972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008(%)-2-101231972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008(%)(%) (%)(%) (%) 51. 36 () . . (1-2) .ln ln (1-2)(2005) , . . , . , . . Elliot et al.(1996) DF-GLS Kwiatkowski et al.(1992) KPSS . DF-GLS , KPSS . , 4 SIC . < 1-2> . (1-2) , . (1-2) < 1-3> . Engle and Granger(1987) Phillips andOuliaris(1990) . , 4 SIC . Phillips and Ouliaris(1990) (prewhitening) , quardratic-spectral Newey-West bandwidth . 52. 1 37DF-GLS KPSSGDP SOC-0.412-1.116-1.279-0.5255.6714.6232.8282.926************ SOC-1.002-1.342-1.258-0.8123.8533.0371.7332.968************ SOC Engle-Granger based - -2.55 -1.12 -3.55 ** -4.86 ***lag 4 z- -40.02 *** -5.89 128.70 71.73Engle-Granger based - -3.01 -1.77 -3.69 ** -4.86 ***lag: SIC z- -10.75 -6.30 -142.74 *** 71.73Phillips-Ouliaris based - -3.00 -1.63 -2.10 -3.64 **lag 4 z- 0.29 -1.23 -4.01 -6.98Phillips-Ouliaris based - -3.13 -1.80 -2.85 -3.64 **lag: SIC z- -13.12 -5.53 -14.02 -20.32 **< 1-2> : 1) DF-GLS , KPSS .2) ***, ** * 1%, 5% 10% .3) , , 19712008.: , .< 1-3> -GDP : 1) Engle-Granger Phillips-Ouliaris .2) ***, ** * 1%, 5% 10% .3) , 19712008.: , . 53. 38 () , . p-value 10% , p-value 15% . . . Engle andGranger(1987) ADF , , .13) , , . .Hansen(1992) < 1-4> . Hansen(1992) (1-2)FM-OLS , . 19712008 (LC, MeanF, SupF) . , FM-OLS (1-1) ( 1-1) , FM-OLS 0.16 0.2813) , . 54. 1 39 SOC 19712008 0.30 0.16 0.61 0.66LC 0.23 0.26 0.05 0.04MeanF 2.16 2.80 0.88 0.58SupF 3.45 3.91 2.32 1.7519752008 0.29 -0.32 0.54 0.65LC 0.10 0.22 0.04 0.13MeanF 1.33 4.72 ** 1.60 1.84SupF 3.14 18.88 *** 6.80 6.03< 1-4> : 1) Hansen(1992) .2) ***, ** * 1%, 5% 10% .: , . . , SOC, , . 19752008 . , SOC , . . Gregory and Hansen(1996) , SOC , 55. 40 () . Gregory andHansen(1996) ADF . . , . , . . . . , , . [ 1-3] , 1991 . 1980 2003 . 197190 19902008 . 19912008 , 1991 1990 [ 1-3] 1991 1990 . 197190 19902008 (1-2) < 1-5> . . , 0.3 , SOC 0.6 56. 1 41 SOC 19712008 0.31 0.27 0.61 0.65 -0.6319711990 0.33 0.50 0.60 0.66 -0.3919902008 0.26 -0.17 0.48 0.66 -0.63[ 1-3] SOC : , .< 1-5> (: %): .: , .-8-6-4-20273 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06-8-40481273 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06-8-40481273 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06-8-6-4-20273 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 57. 42 (), .14) , 197190 0.5 , 19902008 -0.17 . 1990 . . .3. (1-3) ,GDP , . (1-3) , , GDP , , (1-4) .15)14) 10 [ 1-1] . 1990 , . . , , .15) (1-4) , , . 58. 1 43 SOC 19711990(A) 0.335 0.166 0.046 0.199 -0.07619902008(B) 0.294 -0.045 0.029 0.382 -0.072(A)(B) -0.041 -0.211 -0.017 0.182 0.004 -0.303 -0.217 -0.005 0.033 -0.115 -0.045 0.005 -0.023 0.010 -0.038 0.307 0.001 0.010 0.139 0.157 (1-4)197190 19902008 (1-4) < 1-6> . (1-3) ,16) (1-4) . 0.04 , 0.21 0.18 . , (-0.21) (-0.22) , (0.18) (0.14) . < 1-6> : , .16) (1-3) , < 1-6> . 59. 44 (). . , . , , . . 10() . < 1-7> .17) . , . 1990 , 1990 , 2008 224% 1975 260% , 197590 19902008 . . . , 17) 5 , 2006 , 10 . , . 60. 1 450501001502002503001975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008(%)SOC(/10)(/10)(%)1975 66.9 174.1 260.41980 42.7 100.8 236.41985 28.1 62.0 220.51990 18.2 35.3 193.61995 8.9 16.1 180.32000 4.6 10.2 221.52005 3.4 7.5 221.12008 3.0 6.6 224.3< 1-7> : .: , .[ 1-4] : .: .(%) 61. 46 (),,19751990(A) 0.411 0.026 0.046 0.025 0.050 0.021 0.053 0.047 0.078 0.008 0.040 0.01819902008(B) -0.165 -0.031 -0.130 -0.022 -0.015 -0.017 0.015 0.016 0.003 0.007 0.017 -0.009(A)(B) -0.576 -0.057 -0.176 -0.047 -0.065 -0.038 -0.038 -0.031 -0.075 -0.001 -0.022 -0.028 0.759 -0.131 1.127 -0.089 -0.065 -0.060 -0.034 -0.038 -0.077 -0.004 -0.031 0.161 -1.153 0.060 -1.450 0.039 -0.001 0.020 -0.010 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.190 0.198 0.014 0.147 0.004 0.000 0.002 0.005 0.009 0.001 0.003 0.009 0.00219751990 0.400 0.355 0.277 0.426 0.493 0.515 0.539 0.706 0.460 0.539 0.522 0.35019902008 -0.200 -1.467 7.114 -1.112 -0.142 -0.945 0.198 0.130 0.009 0.246 0.119 3.429< 1-8> : , . . [ 1-2] < 1-1> 18) . (1-4) < 1-8> . 1975900.41 19902008 -0.17 . 0.58 1/3 , , 2/3 ., 18) 15 1 , , , . , 6 0.5 . 62. 1 47 . , . , (-0.18) (-1.45) , , (1.13) . , 19902008 7.1 . 1990 . 19902008 -1.5 , , -1.1, -0.94 . 0.009 , , , . -0.02-0.07 ., (1-4) < 1-9> . 1990 . 197590 5% 19902008 12% , 11% 16% . 1990 , , . , , . 1990 , , . 63. 48 (), 19751990(A) 0.618 0.234 0.046 0.007 0.060 0.096 0.044 0.067 0.06519902008(B) 0.577 0.154 0.035 0.010 0.022 0.159 0.014 0.157 0.026(A)(B) -0.041 -0.080 -0.011 0.003 -0.038 0.063 -0.030 0.090 -0.039 -0.099 -0.026 -0.009 0.000 -0.034 -0.021 -0.031 0.053 -0.032 -0.048 -0.027 0.003 0.002 -0.008 -0.014 0.005 -0.011 0.002 0.106 -0.027 -0.005 0.001 0.004 0.099 -0.004 0.048 -0.00919751990 0.599 0.559 0.495 0.293 0.635 1.815 1.204 0.744 0.43619902008 0.562 0.497 0.400 0.307 0.274 1.416 0.361 1.340 0.22019751990 1.000 0.466 0.097 0.012 0.050 0.047 0.087 0.110 0.13219902008 1.000 0.395 0.085 0.014 0.060 0.123 0.067 0.158 0.097< 1-9> : , .3 1. (Okuns law) . (time series econometrics) . 64. 1 49 , . , . , 1 (Error correctionmodel) . GAP , GDP , HP , Kalman . (A. Okun) (Okunslaw) . (1-5) GDP, GDP, , . GDP GDP ( ) , . (1-6) (1-7), GDP , GDP , . 65. 50 () GDP (1-7) . (1-8) (1-8) (1-9) [ 1-5].[ 1-5] 1950 2008 GDP , , GDP . [ 1-5] (1-9) . GDP (%) = 3% (2 ) (1-9) 3% 19502008 GDP (1-8) , 2 .[ 1-5] : Mankiw(2010). 66. 1 51 (1-9) . GDP 3% , 1%p GDP 2% . 5% 7% GDP (%) 3%(2(7%5%))-1% . , GDP 1% . (robustness) . , Lee(2000) . Lee(2000) 16 OECD (robustness) .19) , . , . . , . , (structural change) . , (sectoral shift) . , .19) 16 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 67. 52 ()2. . . . . Okun(1962) GDP , 1 (first order difference) . GDP GDP GAP . GDP . 19702008 GDP() (1 ).1) , (unit root test) . ADF(Augmented Dickey Fuller) . (1-10), , (white noise) , 68. 1 53ADF DF-GLS PPGDP -0.2078 -0.412 0.0546 -0.9810 -2.7958 *** -0.8596< 1-10> : 1) .2) GDP , .3) *** 1% .4) KPSS(1992) I(0) , .: , ; , .(non-stationary time series) , t- 0 .ADF , 12 Ljung-Box Q . . DF-GLS(Dickey-Fuller GLS) PP(Phillips-Perron) .GDP I(1) . I(1) .20)21) 20) GDP . Johansen Trace 5% , Maximum Eigenvalue 5% . . 69. 54 () . 19702008 .22) 1 GAP .2) 1 GAP 1 GAP , GAP HP Kalman GDP .) 1 1 (stationarity) . (1-11), GDP , . GDP I(1) (1-11) . (1-11) Attfield and Silverston(1997)21) GDP . (+1.5495) . 20) , . .22) 197980 199798 GDP . 70. 1 55Parchowny(1993) 0.67 3 2.0 GDP . (cointegration test) (Error correction model) .23)) GAP GAP GDP GDP GAP . (1-12) (1-12) 1 (1-7) (trend) , . 194760 3 , GDP I(1) (cointegrated) (deterministic trend) . (stochastic trend) HP Kalman GAP . Hodrick-Presscot(HP) . (1-13)HP () () (smooth) 23) Lee(2000) , Attfield and Silverston(1997) 1 GAP . 71. 56 () (1-13) . , (smoothing parameter) . .24),25) Kalman . Kalman GDP .26) (state-space form) Kalman (MLE) .27) , 24) HP (spurious inference) . King and Rebelo(1993)HP 1 , Cogley and Nason(1995) HP .25) HP () I(0) . GDP HP .26) . (random walk with drift) , - . , , , , (adaptive expectation) . ( ) . () , .27) Kalman Hamilton(1994) gauss code Hamilton . 72. 1 5710.811.211.612.012.412.813.213.614.01970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Y YSTAR_HP YSTAR_K11.011.512.012.513.013.514.014.51970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Y YSTAR_K[ 1-6] GDP (1) GDP(a) HP (b) Kalman 73. 58 ()123456781970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005UR URSTAR_HP123456781970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005UR URSTAR_K[ 1-6] (2) (a) HP (b) Kalman 74. 1 59 . NAIRU(Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate ofUnemployment, ) .. () . 1 GAP (1-11) (1-12) .< 1-11> . 1 GAP . 1 2.96 . GAP HP 2.82, Kalman 4.71 Kalman . Lee(2000) OECD 2.042.64 .28). () . , , . (+) (-) ( ) 28) Lee(2000) . , 1() 12.6() , . , 1970 GDP , . 75. 60 () Lee(2000)- -1 2.96(0.471)***0.4813 2.04GAPHP 2.82(0.51)***0.5604 2.17Kalman 4.71(2.00)**0.2046 2.64< 1-11> : : 1) ( ) , White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent .2) ***, ** 1%, 5% .3) Lee(2000) OECD . . , .29) , Lee(2000) . 1 GAP . 1 (1-11) . (1-14), Heaviside , .29) . . . 76. 1 61 i f i f i f i f GAP (1-12) . (1-15), i f i f i f i f , Chi-square(1) . < 1-12> . . 1 (-) , 3.40, (+) , 1.76. . , . .30) (2007) . 1% 30) GAP 1 . , . Lee(2000) , Lee(2000) . . 77. 62 () Lee(2000) 1 3.40(0.56)*** 1.76(1.205)0.4871.415[0.234]2.38 2.04GAPHP 2.38(0.48)*** 4.04(0.60)***0.5874.611[0.032]1.90 2.84Kalman 1.38(0.93)11.05(0.76)***0.38365.586[0.000]1.82 5.42< 1-12> : : 1) ( ) , White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent .2) [ ] p-value .3) ***, ** 1%, 5% . 2.9 , 1% 2.1 . , . , (discouraged worker effect) . . ., 1 . GAP 1 78. 1 63 , . OECD Lee(2000) , Lee(2000) , .. 197980 199798 . , . (structuralchange) . (1-16), (1-17) 1 GAP . (1-16) (1-17)(, for .) , , .31) < 1-13> . (A)31) 1980 1998 . 1980 , 1979 2 oil shock 1980 . 1 1980 . 1998 2 . 79. 64 ()(A) 1980 1 4.35(1.73)** -3.04(0.77)*** 1.48(1.80)2.88GAPHP 8.86(1.67)*** -3.80(5.9)6.35(1.72)*** 2.51Kalman 19.13(3.74)** 6.34(2.35)** 14.8(4.1)*** 4.28(B) 1998 1 5.07(1.13)*** -3.79(0.63)*** 2.70(1.14)*** 2.37GAPHP 5.08(0.76)*** 0.09(0.047)3.32(0.86)*** 1.76Kalman 11.03(1.63)*** -10.56(3.07)*** 14.7(2.04)*** -3.68< 1-13> : : 1) ( ) , White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent .2) ***, ** 1%, 5% . 1980 . 1 4.35, 2.88 . GAP . 1980 ( 1-11) . (B) 1997 . 5.07(1 ), 2.37 1980 . GAP HP 80. 1 65 5.08 1.76 1 .4 ., . 197190 19902008 ., 1990 . , ., , . , , 1990 .Padalino and Vivarelli(1997) G-7 , , . , . 81. 66 () . , 2010 .32) (2006) . , . . , . ., . ([1999]). 3 . . (robustness) .32) 1990 2010 , 1990 2000 ( (2010) . 82. 1 67 24 . 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Pianta(eds.), The employmentImpact of Innovation: Evidence and Policy Routledge, 2000, pp.4476. 85. 70 () [ 1-1] 10 SOC : , .0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21975197919831987 1991199519992003(%)0.30.40.50.60.70.80.91975197919831987 1991199519992003(%)0.00.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.51975197919831987 1991199519992003(%)-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.819751979198319871991199519992003(%)(%) (%)(%) (%) 86. 1 71 SOC (1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2)19752008 0.30 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.57 0.55 0.66 0.58 -0.64 -0.5519751990 0.32 0.30 0.45 0.40 0.57 0.55 0.66 0.60 -0.54 -0.4819902008 0.27 0.19 -0.16 -0.20 0.57 0.52 0.66 0.56 -0.76 -0.64[ 1-2] SOC : 2010 10 .: , ; , .< 1-1> : (1) , (2) .: , ; , .0.00.51.01.52.02.575 83 86 95 03 06 08 10(: )0510152075 83 86 95 03 06 08 10(: )1015202575 83 86 95 03 06 08 10(: )2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.575 83 86 95 03 06 08 10(: )() ()()() 87. 33) 1 , . . . , . .33) . 1 3 . 88. 74 ()Corrado, Hulten and Sichel(2005, 2009, CHS) . CHS(2005) 19982000 3 6,600 GDP 13.1% , 20% . CHS(2009) (growth accounting) 197395 0.43%p , 19952003 0.84%p . , , . , .34) . . 1993SNA GDP ., , . , . CHS , .35) .34) 2008SNA . (2009) .35) CHS . . 89. 2 752 . (R&D) , . 1993SNA , (mineral exploration) (artistic creations) . .1. : Corrado, Hulten, and Sichel(2005, 2009)Corrado, Hulten, and Sichel(2005) , . < 2-1>CHS(2005) .CHS(2005) < 2-1> , < 2-2> .< 2-2> , GDP 198890, 199395, 19982000 10.4%, 10.7%, 13.1% . 410, 690, 1,540 , 2,050, 2,610, 4,260 , 3,220, 4,240, 6,430 . 198890 19982000 , 3,210 , 3.8 ., 198890 19982000 90. 76 () 1. 1. , , (NIPA )2. NIPA .SAS 2. (innovativeproperty)3. , , . NSF . , , , 1950 .4. , , NIPA 5. ( ). : , , , , ( 2 )6. , ,( ) . : (20%), (SAS 50% ), (SAS 2 )3. (economiccompetency)7. , (SAS 2)8. BLS : , 9. : (SAS), (BLS )< 2-1> : BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics, SAS Services Annual Survey. NIPA .: CHS(2005). 91. 2 77 198890 199395 199820001. 1. 41 69 1512. 32. (innovativeproperty)3. , 103 123 1844. 11 12 185. 28 41 756. , , 63 85 1493. (economiccompetency)7. 134 163 2368. 68 87 1169. 120 174 291 570 755 1,220GDP 10.4 10.7 13.1< 2-2> (: 10, %): .: CHS(2005). 7.2% 12.3% , 21.1% 23.8% . 23.6% 19.3%, , 18.1% 15.0%, 12.0%9.5% .CHS(2009) . < 2-3> . ( ) , 1 92. 78 () 19731995 19952003 ( )1. (%) 1.36 2.78 1.42 (%p)2. 0.60 0.98 0.382.1. IT 0.33 0.70 0.372.2. 0.27 0.28 0.013. 0.28 0.38 0.104. 0.48 1.42 0.94 1. 1.63 3.09 1.45 (%p)2. 0.97 1.68 0.712.1. 0.55 0.85 0.302.1.1. IT 0.30 0.60 0.302.1.2. 0.25 0.24 -0.012.2. 0.43 0.84 0.412.2.1. 0.12 0.27 0.152.2.2. (CHS ) 0.31 0.57 0.263. 0.25 0.33 0.084. 0.41 1.08 0.67< 2-3> 1)(: %, %p): 1) . . .2) CHS(2009) CHS(2006) . CHS(2006) .: CHS(2009).197395 19952003 1.36%, 2.78% . 1 19739519952003 1.63%, 3.09% .36) , 93. 2 79 0.27%p,0.31%p . 0.03%p .37) 197395 19952003 0.43%p, 0.84%p . , 197395 0.55%p 0.43%p 19952003 0.840.85% . . 19952003 1.42%p 51.0% , 1.08%p 35.0% . 0.98%p 1.68%p , .38)36) CHS(2005) 1 2,200 , CHS(2009) 1 1 850 .37) . ( CHS(2009) ). 1993SNA . , . , 2008SNA 1993SNA . 2008SNA 1993SNA R&D, , ( (2009) ).38) . 94. 80 () (19822002,10)(19982000,10)(2004,10)1. 9,714 154 19.81.1 4,663151-1.2 449 7.51.2 2,708 12.41.3 894 3 -2. 18,133 425 37.62.1 , 9,634 184 12.42.2 40 18 0.42.3 4,659 75 2.42.4 , , 3,801 149 22.43. 12,899 505 58.83.1 4,774 140 11.13.2 1,60036528.53.3 6,525 19.2 40,746 1,085 116.2GDP (%) 7.6 11.7 10.0 (%) 30 120 1102. : Fukao, Hamagata, Miyagawa, andTonogi(2009)Fukao, Hamagata, Miyazawa, and Tonogi(2009, FHMT) CHS(2005, 2009) . < 2-4> CHS(2009) Marrano and Haskel(2006) .< 2-4> , , : FHMT(2009). 95. 2 81 GDP 7.6% 11.7% 10.0% . 30% 120% 110% . FHMT(2009) ., . 23.8% 14.2%, 17.0% . 44.5% 39.2% 32.4% . 31.7% 46.5% 50.6% . 19.9% 33.6% 41.0% . . < 2-5> CHS(2006) FHMT(2009) . < 2-5> GDP 198090 19902002 . , GDP 1980 GDP 3.87%, 1990 1.05%2.82%p , GDP 1980 1990 2.86%p . GDP GDP 1980 0.53% 1990 -0.84% 1980 2.55% 1990 1.79% . 0.76%p, 0.70%p . GDP , 1.49%p , 96. 82 () 198090 19902002 GDP 3.87 1.05 -2.821. 0.53 -0.84 -1.372. 3.34 1.89 -1.462.1 2.55 1.79 -0.762.2. 0.80 0.10 -0.70GDP 3.99 1.13 -2.861. 0.53 -0.84 -1.372. 3.46 1.97 -1.492.1 2.87 2.03 -0.842.1.1 2.43 1.57 -0.862.1.2 0.43 0.45 0.022.2 0.59 -0.06 -0.65< 2-5> (: %, %p): FHMT(2009). 0.84%p , 0.65%p . 1980 2.43% 19901.57% 0.86%p 0.02%p.3. : INNODRIVE project INNODRVE project . < 2-6> CHS(2005) .39) 39) Piekkola(2009), European Research Arena(2009) . 97. 2 83 1) (, )2) ( (: )), (: )(, , )1) 2) ( , , , , )1) 2) 3) : -1) 2) 1) 2) : , < 2-6> : Piekkola(2009)., . , (exhaustiveness), , , . < 2-7> (Gross Fixed CapitalFormation: GFCF) GDP . GDP . 1995 2005 GDP 1%p . ( ) , , , . 4% . 98. 84 () at be bg cy cz dk ee fi fr de gr hu ie1995 3.5 4.8 0.3 1.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 5.0 4.1 0.9 2.9 3.72000 4.2 5.3 4.2 1.9 4.0 4.5 4.2 5.3 5.2 4.6 0.9 3.1 3.62005 4.5 3.4 3.4 1.9 4.8 4.2 4.4 5.0 5.1 4.6 0.8 3.6 5.0 lv lt mt nl pl pt ro sk si es se uk no1995 2.1 2.7 4.7 2.2 3.2 2.3 3.7 2.8 6.0 5.6 3.72000 3.3 2.2 2.9 5.2 3.3 3.5 2.7 3.6 4.1 4.1 7.1 6.5 3.32005 3.4 2.3 3.8 4.3 3.2 4.0 4.1 2.9 4.1 4.1 6.3 5.8 2.7< 2-7> GDP 1)(: %): 1) < 2-6> , , .2) at , be , bg , cy , cz , dk, ee , fi , fr , de , gr , hu, ie , it , lv , lt , lu , mt , nl , pl , pt , ro , sk , si , es , se , uk , no .: Piekkola(2009).2000 2005 , . GDP 27% , 19952000 . 200005 (EU15) , . . . . , 99. 2 85 , .19952000 , 200005 . , . .40)3 1. (2006) . , . OECD . 1990 , . 1990 . 1 GDI , 1990 .41) 19702004 40) CHS(2006) FHMT(2009) .41) (2006) . 100. 86 (). R&D , .42) , R&D . . , R&D . , . , . . (2003), (2003) , (2003), (2005), (2009) .2. CHS(2005, 2009) . , 1993SNA .43) 1993SNA42) R&D R&D , , . R&D . . 101. 2 87 , 1 , . . .44) < 2-8> .45)< 2-8> , GDP 19810.25% 1990 0.65%, 2000 1.62%, 2009 1.76% . 1981 1.00% 1991 2% , 2000 5.24%, 20096.55% . 1981 3.17%, 1997 11.21% 10% ,2009 20% 20.37% . < 2-8> 30 , 6% , 20% ., , . (2010) . , 19982004 4.17%, 1.06%p , 0.67%p, 0.39%p . 1.73%,43) . , .44) (2003) .45) . , . 102. 88 ()GDP 1981 0.25 0.97 1.00 3.171982 0.23 0.89 0.91 3.131983 0.21 0.78 0.80 2.971984 0.27 0.96 0.98 3.461985 0.42 1.50 1.57 5.521986 0.48 1.71 1.79 5.701987 0.55 1.87 1.94 6.111988 0.55 1.75 1.89 5.981989 0.64 1.83 2.02 6.391990 0.65 1.75 1.79 5.981991 0.75 1.90 2.00 6.641992 0.84 2.28 2.34 7.751993 0.90 2.50 2.49 8.851994 1.05 2.75 2.79 8.921995 1.17 3.09 2.99 9.111996 1.27 3.27 3.21 9.701997 1.27 3.55 3.45 11.211998 1.34 5.03 4.41 18.811999 1.45 4.77 4.86 16.372000 1.62 5.10 5.24 14.942001 1.65 5.45 5.56 17.332002 1.76 5.80 5.93 18.452003 1.70 5.53 5.64 18.592004 1.64 5.44 5.58 18.082005 1.71 5.75 5.91 18.552006 1.75 5.94 6.17 18.512007 1.76 6.06 6.25 17.892008 1.75 6.18 6.51 18.432009 1.76 7.31 6.55 20.37< 2-8> (: %): , . 103. 2 89 199097 19982004 199097 19982004 2.11 1.73 6.05 4.17 1.55 1.01 3.43 1.06 1.19 0.75 3.20 0.67 0.36 0.25 0.23 0.39 0.56 0.72 2.62 3.11< 2-9> (: %, %p): (2010). Fukao and Miyagawa(2010) . 1.01%p , 0.75%p, 0.25%p . 199097 19982004 0.36%p 0.25%p 0.23%p 0.39%p . 19982004 0.39%p , 9.4%p 14.5%p .46)46) McGrattan and Prescott(2005, 2009) CHS . 104. 90 ()4 1. . CHS(2005) . NIPA , (Services Annual Survey, SAS) . NSF R&D . , NIPA . , , , , , 2 . , . 20% , 50% (SAS ), 2 . (market research) 2 . , . , .. FHMT(2009) CHS , . 105. 2 91 JIP . JIP 1970 2002 108 ,, .JIP2006 METI (Survey of Selected ServiceIndustries) . (in house software investment) ICT(Survey of ICTWorkplaces), . (information service industry) . R&D , , , R&D (Survey of R&D Expenses) R&D . (Handbook of Mining Industry) (Annual Report onNatural Gas) . JIP2006 . JIP 92( ),93(, , ) . , (research expense) . , , ( 20% ), (CHS (Services Annual Survey) ), R&D 2 ( ). JIP 69(), 70() . CHS JIP85() 60% . CHS 106. 92 () , . , (General Surveyof Wage and Working Hours System) 1 . CHS ( ) . , (Survey ofFinancial Statements of Business Enterprises) 20% .2. CHS(2005) .47) , . 2000 , 2000 2000 .48)47) . . , , , . . . .48) 1995, 2000, 2005 , 2006 . 2008 . 107. 2 93 < 2-1> < 2-10> 27 . , . ,27 . . .49) ( ) . 2006 2008 . .50) , . , . CHS(2005) . . .51)52) 49) , FTE(full time equivalent) .50) . 78 .51) sts.ntis.go.kr .52) ,2007 . , CHS(2005) 108. 94 ()1 2 3 4 , 5 , , 6 , 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 , , 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 < 2-10> . ( 2-10) , 0 . , (, 2007 ). 109. 2 95 . < 2-2> ., CHS(2005) , , .53) . 87 27 . . . ( 2-2 ). . 199497 6 , 30 , 19982003 6 , 10 , 200407 8 , 10 , 200809 9 , 10 . . 30 .54) , . < 2-3> .53) .54) 199497 30 , 30 . 30 . 110. 96 (), CHS(2005) , . CHS(2005) . . .55) .3. . < 2-11> . ( ), 2005 1995 22.1, 2000 29.9, 2008 52.7 . 1995 10.7%, 2000 14.9% , 2008 21.3% . GDP 1995 4.1%, 2000 4.3% 0.2%p , 2008 5.4% 2000 1.1%p .56)57)55) .56) . . FHMT(2009) , , , GDP () 1.8% 1.8%, 1.7% ( 2-4 ). GDP 3.4%, 4.6%, 3.2% 2.5% . , 111. 2 97 (A)(B)(C)(D)(E)(F=C+D+E)1995 136,832.8 69,224.3 6,305.0 9,090 6,711 22,106.01996 146,668.0 75,529.4 7,322.6 9,989 6,744 24,055.41997 150,220.4 69,196.0 7,756.0 10,683 6,776 25,215.81998 130,816.3 41,104.7 7,733.3 9,174 6,809 23,716.61999 125,845.9 56,518.1 9,253.6 9,898 6,842 25,993.12000 125,555.7 75,114.8 11,220.6 11,808 6,874 29,903.02001 133,487.3 68,904.1 11,941.5 13,608 7,326 32,875.12002 141,787.6 73,936.5 13,639.7 13,936 7,777 35,352.82003 153,888.9 72,803.6 13,536.6 15,048 8,229 36,813.32004 155,945.4 75,553.8 13,661.5 17,131 8,681 39,473.32005 155,365.4 79,566.2 14,758.1 18,564 9,132 42,454.62006 156,184.6 86,077.3 15,936.7 21,157 9,676 46,770.12007 158,426.6 94,069.5 16,825.1 23,412 10,442 50,679.02008 153,942.0 93,110.0 17,164.1 24,785 10,774 52,723.7< 2-11> (1) (: 10) , , , . GDP 1.1% , 2.4% 5.4%, 5.1% . GDP 1.1% 0.9%, 1.5%, 1.0% , . FHMT(2009) 2008 . < 2-7> EU 2005 GDP , . .57) , , , , , 0.709, 0.622,0.293, 0.743, 0.385, 0.718 ( ). 0.718 . . 112. 98 () (F/A) (F/(A+B)GDP 1995 16.2 10.7 4.11996 16.4 10.8 4.21997 16.8 11.5 4.11998 18.1 13.8 4.11999 20.7 14.3 4.12000 23.8 14.9 4.32001 24.6 16.2 4.62002 24.9 16.4 4.62003 23.9 16.2 4.62004 25.3 17.1 4.72005 27.3 18.1 4.92006 29.9 19.3 5.12007 32.0 20.1 5.32008 34.2 21.3 5.4< 2-11> (2) 58)(: %): 1) .2) , , ( ) , sts.ntis.go.kr, . 1996 1999, 2001 2004 .< 2-12> 2007 . ( , ) 6.52%, 58) . FHMT(2009) 59.2%, 44.1%, 37.3% . GDP 9.114.4% . , . 113. 2 99( )(A)(B)(C)()(A+B+C)1 3,074 11 12 14 - 382 160 0 7 1 37.1 83 1,736 412 331 892 226.9 1,6354 2,444 141 142 319 53.7 6025 972 102 40 101 47.7 2436 7,586 568 2,489 878 389.2 3,9357 4,439 305 138 187 36.4 6318 6,464 483 421 190 49.6 1,0949 3,481 282 1,763 154 36.0 2,19910 21,221 1,480 10,140 1,326 109.7 12,94611 818 39 329 63 9.3 43012 7,525 789 4,387 290 66.5 5,46713 313 44 56 95 12.9 19614 3,663 493 259 55 99.7 80615 2,248 405 554 326 18.7 1,28616 8,373 1,429 82 1,131 23.6 2,64317 7,645 21 1 171 15.1 19318 10,254 226 42 160 96.0 42919 1,898 2,334 0 1,539 105.0 3,87320 6,543 295 2 159 11.0 45621 6,495 1,386 326 802 166.5 2,51422 4,967 1,077 1,247 550 56.8 2,87423 15,326 319 0 139 - 45824 8,491 2,520 5 214 - 2,73925 4,464 650 8 56 - 71526 4,159 546 27 535 37.4 1,10827 107,343 90 12 94 22.8 195 252,103 16,449 22,821 10,442 49,712< 2-12> 2007 , (1) (: 10, ) 114. 100 ()( )(A)(B)(C)(A+B+C)1 1.22 0.07 0.05 0.14 0.082 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.023 0.69 2.51 1.45 8.54 3.294 0.97 0.86 0.62 3.05 1.215 0.39 0.62 0.18 0.97 0.496 3.01 3.46 10.91 8.40 7.927 1.76 1.86 0.60 1.79 1.278 2.56 2.94 1.85 1.82 2.209 1.38 1.72 7.73 1.47 4.4210 8.42 9.00 44.43 12.70 26.0411 0.32 0.24 1.44 0.60 0.8712 2.99 4.80 19.22 2.78 11.0013 0.12 0.27 0.24 0.91 0.3914 1.45 3.00 1.13 0.53 1.6215 0.89 2.46 2.43 3.13 2.5916 3.32 8.69 0.36 10.83 5.3217 3.03 0.13 0.00 1.64 0.3918 4.07 1.38 0.19 1.53 0.8619 0.75 14.19 0.00 14.74 7.7920 2.60 1.79 0.01 1.52 0.9221 2.58 8.42 1.43 7.68 5.0622 1.97 6.55 5.46 5.26 5.7823 6.08 1.94 0.00 1.33 0.9224 3.37 15.32 0.02 2.05 5.5125 1.77 3.95 0.04 0.54 1.4426 1.65 3.32 0.12 5.13 2.2327 42.58 0.55 0.05 0.90 0.39 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00< 2-12> (2) (: %) 115. 2 101 1 27,294.0 1,748,758 193,562 1,555,1972 1,909.8 17,114 15,598 1,5163 11,405.8 279,528 202,181 77,3484 10,969.1 329,559 272,567 56,9965 7,765.7 177,943 143,567 34,3746 40,182.4 181,844 177,498 4,3467 8,258.0 315,669 294,169 21,4988 37,094.8 453,067 399,155 53,9109 22,047.2 367,499 340,372 27,12710 65,192.6 605,156 586,164 18,99111 4,564.8 86,175 80,848 5,32712 36,155.5 426,312 417,473 8,84013 3,938.9 110,205 84,975 25,22914 19,026.2 72,238 72,097 14115 62,134.9 1,691,112 1,627,824 63,28616 70,656.9 2,881,811 1,351,937 1,529,87317 19,636.7 1,494,544 710,764 783,77918 39,136.8 991,492 677,120 314,37219 61,614.4 602,060 596,416 5,64520 65,524.8 417,441 334,883 82,55821 39,664.7 161,100 156,907 4,19222 41,800.2 1,148,808 1,070,768 78,03923 52,183.9 724,567 724,567 024 49,971.2 1,574,392 1,442,001 132,39125 32,905.8 843,787 772,871 70,91826 11,781.1 381,297 238,043 143,25427 17,175.8 700,043 415,241 284,802 859,992.0 18,783,521 13,599,568 5,383,949< 2-12> (3) (: 10, ) 116. 102 () 1 3.17 9.31 1.42 28.892 0.22 0.09 0.11 0.033 1.33 1.49 1.49 1.444 1.28 1.75 2.00 1.065 0.90 0.95 1.06 0.646 4.67 0.97 1.31 0.087 0.96 1.68 2.16 0.408 4.31 2.41 2.94 1.009 2.56 1.96 2.50 0.5010 7.58 3.22 4.31 0.3511 0.53 0.46 0.59 0.1012 4.20 2.27 3.07 0.1613 0.46 0.59 0.62 0.4714 2.21 0.38 0.53 0.0015 7.23 9.00 11.97 1.1816 8.22 15.34 9.94 28.4217 2.28 7.96 5.23 14.5618 4.55 5.28 4.98 5.8419 7.16 3.21 4.39 0.1020 7.62 2.22 2.46 1.5321 4.61 0.86 1.15 0.0822 4.86 6.12 7.87 1.4523 6.07 3.86 5.33 0.0024 5.81 8.38 10.60 2.4625 3.83 4.49 5.68 1.3226 1.37 2.03 1.75 2.6627 2.00 3.73 3.05 5.29 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00< 2-12> (4) (: %) 117. 2 103 9.05%, 4.14% . , 19.72% . 10. 8.42% , 23. 6.08%, 18. 4.07% .59) 24. 15.32%, 19. 14.19%, 10. 9.00%, 16. 8.69% . , , . 10. 44.43% , 12. 19.22%, 6. , 10.91% . 74.56% . , , . 19. 14.74%, 10. 12.70%, 16. 10.83% . , . 2007 , 0.36% .60)59) 27. , . 2007 (, , , , ,, , , , , , , , ) . 2008 . 2008 2007 27. .60) . 118. 104 () , , 10. 26.04%, 12. 11.00%, 6. , 7.92% .61) 14.41%, 44.95% . 30 1 6. , 38 9 , 21. 16 7, 10. 11 . 12. 6 7 . . 16. , 15.34% . 15. 9.00%, 24. 8.38% . 16. 8.22%, 15. 7.23%, 24. 5.81% . , 10. 3.22%, 12. 2.27% , 6. , 0.97% . , , , ., 15. 11.97%, 24. 10.60%,61) , . CHS(2009) 60% , . 119. 2 10516. 9.94% . 1. 28.89%, 16. 28.42%, 17. 14.56% .4. < 2-13> . 19952008. . ( , . ) , 1. 0.362 . 15. 0.590 , 24. 0.155 . (10. , 16. , 17. , 18. ,20. , 21. , 23. ) , . 24. 0.683, 25. 0.656, 19. 0.618, 9. 0.586 . 5 (3. , 7. , 9. , 11. , 23. ) , . 14. , 0.649, 24. 0.632, 5. , , 0.550 . , 11. . 6. , 0.410, 7. 0.399 . 24. 0.459,17. 0.400 120. 106 () 1 0.362 0.143 0.099 0.218 0.528 .2 0.063 0.530 0.413 -0.278 0.030 -0.1773 -0.214 0.248 -0.186 0.209 0.009 0.0134 -0.153 0.365 0.041 0.260 0.380 0.2945 0.118 0.394 0.550 0.283 0.402 0.0056 -0.164 0.513 0.136 0.410 0.051 0.5197 0.092 0.246 -0.136 0.399 0.341 0.1238 -0.109 0.345 0.314 0.282 0.798 -0.2109 0.008 0.586 -0.082 0.343 -0.331 -0.16210 -0.343 -0.147 0.342 0.053 0.709 0.37111 0.183 0.321 -0.015 -0.151 -0.163 0.07412 0.013 0.377 0.136 0.181 0.252 0.23013 -0.115 0.439 0.482 -0.240 0.190 0.04214 -0.142 0.007 0.649 0.120 0.170 0.08215 0.590 0.254 0.120 0.164 0.637 0.22316 0.191 -0.133 0.058 0.382 0.133 0.20017 0.149 -0.014 0.498 0.400 0.474 0.01118 -0.234 -0.315 0.190 -0.273 -0.014 -0.21319 0.150 0.618 0.192 -0.155 0.319 -0.15620 -0.252 -0.005 0.269 0.073 0.788 0.13821 -0.114 -0.507 0.578 0.145 0.677 0.00322 -0.025 0.094 0.311 -0.078 0.667 0.31323 0.050 -0.572 -0.233 . 0.509 .24 0.155 0.683 0.632 0.459 0.060 0.23625 0.009 0.656 0.008 -0.229 0.274 0.33526 -0.206 0.162 0.042 0.230 -0.272 0.28127 0.147 0.160 0.563 0.237 0.322 0.274< 2-13> (1) 121. 2 107 1 0.366 0.511 0.232 0.471 -0.249 .2 0.064 0.541 0.429 -0.271 0.024 -0.1863 -0.267 0.366 -0.312 0.165 0.076 0.0764 -0.092 0.343 -0.003 0.275 0.383 0.2905 0.090 0.464 0.553 0.301 0.159 -0.1356 -0.161 0.504 0.132 0.399 0.048 0.5197 0.089 0.234 -0.142 0.403 0.346 0.1328 -0.147 0.396 0.295 0.287 0.802 -0.2079 -0.002 0.593 -0.053 0.341 -0.354 -0.14510 -0.367 -0.141 0.326 0.076 0.718 0.36011 0.171 0.307 0.004 -0.116 -0.174 0.09412 0.009 0.394 0.148 0.176 0.252 0.23513 -0.251 0.362 0.338 -0.379 -0.068 -0.05214 -0.144 0.019 0.640 0.114 0.159 0.08815 0.612 0.209 0.080 0.231 0.716 0.19216 0.193 0.288 -0.008 0.057 -0.042 0.24717 0.140 0.044 0.424 0.320 0.355 -0.05918 -0.262 -0.138 0.122 -0.306 -0.005 -0.32319 0.146 0.620 0.186 -0.152 0.314 -0.15620 -0.205 0.838 -0.275 0.125 0.645 -0.48021 -0.218 -0.630 0.522 0.156 0.688 -0.02122 0.012 0.152 0.361 0.039 0.701 0.21923 0.050 -0.572 -0.233 . 0.509 .24 0.189 0.526 0.448 0.278 0.066 0.11925 0.034 0.520 -0.087 -0.250 0.160 0.26626 -0.236 -0.180 0.062 0.301 0.133 -0.03427 0.092 0.488 0.551 0.540 0.600 0.446< 2-13> (2) 122. 108 (), 18. -0.273, 25. -0.229 . (9. , 11. , 18. , 26. ) . 8. (0.798), 20. (0.788), 10. (0.709) . , . .5. . < 2-14> .62) 19952008, .63)64)65)62) (fixed effect) .63) . . , . . .64) (omitted variable bias) IV . , IV . , 27 IV . .65) (: %). . -100.0% 0 . 123. 2 109 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.007 0.008 0.002 0.001 -0.003 -0.0070.030 0.030 0.029 0.029 0.029 0.029 0.037*** 0.038*** 0.039*** 0.035*** 0.034*** 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.008*** 0.008*** 0.006** 0.006** 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.115 *** 0.118*** 0.033 0.033 0.004 0.004 0.509* 0.361 0.247 0.247 0.006 -0.0280.263 0.262 0.264 0.264 0.268 0.270 0.007 0.040 0.035 0.038 0.125 0.124< 2-14> (1) : 1) , .2) ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% .3) . 351 4.7 8.2 -34.2 41.6 351 0.6 6.2 -23.6 24.0 351 0.5 5.5 -21.1 17.5 351 3.9 21.7 -54.9 227.6 351 17.8 93.1 -90.2 1,366.9 351 2.8 8.5 -29.9 48.7 350 15.8 106.1 -100.0 1,453.4 351 10.8 62.7 -100.0 527.6 124. 110 () 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.001 0.005 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.0010.038 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.040*** 0.043*** 0.041*** 0.037** 0.036** 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.005 0.005 0.003 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.103* 0.103* 0.062 0.062 0.001 0.006 -1.488*** -1.650*** -1.795*** -1.795*** -1.724*** -1.734***0.424 0.417 0.442 0.442 0.441 0.445 0.013 0.060 0.056 0.060 0.080 0.081 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.015 0.011 -0.007 -0.007 -0.022 -0.0490.052 0.052 0.051 0.052 0.049 0.050 0.024 0.028* 0.028* 0.025* 0.025* 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.023** 0.022** 0.016* 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.162*** 0.175*** 0.038 0.038 0.011** 0.005 2.796*** 2.689*** 2.443*** 2.443*** 1.610*** 1.613***0.360 0.364 0.370 0.370 0.401 0.396 0.000 0.010 0.052 0.051 0.059 0.064< 2-14> (2) (3) 125. 2 111 . 5, 6 . , 0.0340.039 . 1%p 0.0340.039%p . , 0.0060.008 . 1%p 0.0060.008%p . -0.001-0.002 , . 0.1150.118 , . .66) , . , , . 0.0010.005 , . 0.0360.043 . 0.0030.005 . 0.0030.005 66) . 126. 112 () , . 0.103 , 10% . 0.001, 6 5 . , , . 3 6 , . 0.0240.028 , 10% . 6 , 0.0130.023 . 0.002 , . 0.1620.175 , 1% . 0.011 . . , . . , . . . 1% 127. 2 113 0.0360.043 . 10% , 0.0240.028 . , . 0.0030.005 , . 0.0130.023 6 . 0.0030.005, 0.002 , . , . , 0.103 10% , 0.1620.175 , 1% . 0.011 5% , 0.001 . . < 2-4> .5 , . , (computerized information), (innovative property), (competency) . FHMT(2009) 128. 114 () . . , , . . , . 2008SNA . R&D , , 93SNA . 2008SNA , . , . . , . , , . , . , 129. 2 115 , . , . , . . . (spill-over) . ( ) . .CHS(2005), FHMT(2009) , , , , , , . . . , . , 130. 116 () . , . , . , . , ., . , . . . . 1995 . , . . , . , , 131. 2 117 . EU-KLEMS . 132. 118 () , , , 8 1, ,2003., , , 60 8, , 2006., , ,2003 3, , 2003, pp.110144., , , 2005 4, , 2005., , , 2009 1, , 2009., 2008SNA , , 20094, , 2009. , RIETI DiscussionPaper Series 11-J-018, 2010.Corrado, Carol A. Charles R. Hulten, and Daniel E. Sichel, Measuring Capital andTechnology: An Expanded Framework, in C. Corrado, J. Haltiwanger, andD. Sichel(eds.), Measuring Capital in the New Economy, University ofChicago Press, 2005.Corrado Carol, Charles Hulten, and Daniel Sichel, Intangible Capital and EconomicGrowth, Working Paper 2006-24, Finance and Economics Discussion Series(FEDS), Federal Reserve Board, 2006.Corrado Carol A., Charles R. Hulten, and Daniel E. 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Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 57, No. 4, 2005,pp.693716.Van Rooijen-Horsten, Myriam, Dirk van den Bergen, and Murat Tanriseven,Intangible Capital in the Netherlands: A Benchmark, Statistics Netherlands,Discussion Paper No. 08001, 2008. 134. 120 () < 2-1> (1) 19952003 , , , , , , 1 1 , , , , 135. 2 121< 2-1> (2) 200508 , , , , 1 1 , , , 136. 122 ()199597 199820071 , , , , 2 3 4 , , , 5 , , , , , , 6 , , , , , 7 8 1 1 9 , 10 11 , , , , , 12 13 14 , , , , 15 16 - 17 - 18 , 19 - 20 - 21 , 22 23 - , 24 - 25 26 , 27 , < 2-2> (1) 199597, 19982007 137. 2 1231 , 2 3 20. , 23. , 24.4 , 10. , , 22. (), 27., 5 , , 21. , 28. , 39. , 6 , 11. , 38. , , 40. ( ), 26. 7 4. 8 5. 1 (1 , 1 ,), 12. ( )9 13. 10 30. , 31. , , , 11 25. , , 12 29. , 14. 13 9. , 19. , 65. , , 14 , , 41. , 15 42. 16 48. 17 44. 18 51. 19 45. 20 46. 21 57. , , (, , , , , , )22 49. , 52. , 23 -24 47. 25 -26 50. , 27 64. , < 2-2> (2) 2008 138. 124 ()1 2 (, , )3 4 , , 5 , , ( ), 6, , 7 8 1 9 10 , , 11 , , 12 13 14 , , , 15 16 17 18 19 20 , 21 22 23 24 25 26 , 27 < 2-3> (1) 199497 139. 2 1251 2 ()3 4 , , 5 , , ( ), 6 , , 7 8 1 9 10 , , 11 , , 12 13 14 , , , 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 , 27 < 2-3> (2) 19982003 140. 126 ()1 2 (, , ( )3 4 , (, ), , 5 , , ( ), 6 , , 7 8 1 9 () 10 , , 11 , , 12 13 14 , , , 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 , 23 24 25 26 , 27 , (, , , , )< 2-3> (3) 200407 141. 2 1271 2 3 4 , (), , 5 , , (), 6 , ( ) 7 8 2 9 ( ) 10 , , , 11 , , 12 13 , , 14 , , , , 15 16 17 18 ( )19 20 21 , , (, , )22 ( 23 24 25 26 , 27 , < 2-3> (4) 2008 142. 128 () 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.003 0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.006 -0.0060.034 0.033 0.033 0.033 0.032 0.033 0.052*** 0.053*** 0.054*** 0.050*** 0.050*** 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.010*** 0.010*** 0.008*** 0.008*** 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 -0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.085** 0.085** 0.037 0.037 0.000 0.004 0.616** 0.410 0.257 0.257 0.079 0.0780.295 0.290 0.293 0.293 0.300 0.303 1 2 3 4 5 6 -0.012 -0.007 -0.009 -0.009 -0.010 -0.0100.043 0.041 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.047*** 0.049*** 0.048*** 0.045*** 0.044*** 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.017 0.017 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.076 0.076 0.069 0.069 0.001 0.007 -2.001*** -2.191*** -2.314*** -2.314*** -2.262*** -2.271***0.474 0.465 0.493 0.493 0.495 0.500< 2-4> (1) (2) 143. 2 129 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.007 0.000 -0.018 -0.018 -0.034 -0.0390.052 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.048 0.050 0.045*** 0.050*** 0.050*** 0.046*** 0.046*** 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.023*** 0.022** 0.016* 0.015* 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.166*** 0.169*** 0.037 0.037 0.002 0.005 3.414*** 3.208*** 2.958*** 2.958*** 2.103*** 2.103***0.362 0.360 0.364 0.364 0.393 0.394< 2-4> (3) : . 144. 1 . 2008 , 305 87.8%265 1,307 39.75% 519 . , . , . , , . . 145. 132 ()(microcredit: MC) . MC . MC . . 2000 MC MC . MC 200910 . , MC , . , MC . . 2 , . . 3 MC . MC 146. 3 133 MC . 4 MC . 5 .2 1. , . , . , , . 4 , , , , 300 , , 300 80 30 , 300 4 . 200 200, 100 100, 50 147. 134 () 4 50 300 50 10 10 50300 10 5< 3-1> : 1) 4 .2) .50 .67) , 50 , 10 . , 10 , 5 . . . 67) , , , , , , , , , , , 200 200 , , , , 100 , 100 , 50 , 50 . 148. 3 135 . .Metrick(2007) (National Venture Capital Association) (early stage), (expansion stage), (late stage) . (seed), (start-up), (other early stage) , , , ., . . , , . . . . (information asymmetry) 149. 136 () . (adverse selection) (moralhazard) . (collateral) . . . . , . , , , . , , . , . 150. 3 137 3,044,169(99.91)2,939,696(96.48)2,675,270(87.80)104,473(3.43)2,789(0.09)3,046,958(100.00) 11,467,713(87.74)7,835,068(59.95)5,194,991(39.75)3,632,645(27.79)1,602,711(12.26)13,070,424(100.00) . . , , , .2. . < 3-2> 2008 < 3-1> .68) 2008 305 , 87.8% 267 . , 2008 1,307< 3-2> (2008)(: , , %): 1) < 3-1> .2) ( ) .: , http://stat2.smba.go.kr/index.jsp68) . . . 151. 138 ()01020304050601998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 39.75% 519 . .[ 3-1] , 1998 . [ 3-2] 1998 . 1998 91.7%, 2002 88.5%, 2006 88.3%,2008 87.8% . 1998 45.2%, 2002 42.4%, 2006 41.0%,2008 39.8% .1998 [ 3-1] (19982008)(: 10, 10): , http://stat2.smba.go.kr/index.jsp60504030201001998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 152. 3 139304050607080901001998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008% [ 3-2] (19982008)(: %): , http://stat2.smba.go.kr/index.jsp . . 2002 . 1998 2001 42.1% 2002 42.4%, 200343.1% , 2004 . , , , , . . 97.33% , 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 10090807060504030 153. 140 () 853,599(99.96)825,798(96.70)767,211(89.84)27,801(3.26)359(0.04)853,958(100.00) 622,909(99.99)611,162(98.10)561,929(90.20)11,747(1.89)64(0.01)622,973(100.00) 337,530(99.97)335,067(99.24)328,631(97.33)2,463(0.73)106(0.03)337,636(100.00) 317,740(99.80)309,488(97.21)260,015(81.67)8,252(2.59)624(0.20)318,364(100.00) 276,595(99.96)270,528(97.77)259,915(93.94)6,067(2.19)100(0.04)276,695 635,796(99.76)587,653(92.21)497,569(78.07)48,143(7.55)1,536(0.24)637,332(100.00) 3,044,169(99.91)2,939,696(96.48)2,675,270(87.80)104,473(3.43)2,789(0.09)3,046,958(100.00)< 3-3> (2008)(: , %): 1) < 3-1> .2) ( ) .: , http://stat2.smba.go.kr/index.jsp. 81.67% . , , , , . 19.5%, 49.1% . 154. 3 141 2,383,953(94.14)1,746,899(69.72)1,382,106(55.16)637,054(25.42)121,676(4.86)2,505,629(100.00) 1,691,708(98.83)1,467,205(85.40)1,170,062(68.11)224,503(13.07)26,301(1.53)1,718,009(100.00) 2,596,639(79.83)1,764,479(54.25)792,827(24.38)832,160(25.58)655,934(20.17)3,252,573(100.00) 804,144(92.63)531,245(61.19)395,167(45.52)272,899(31.43)64,006(7.37)868,150(100.00) 566,978(97.28)446,310(76.58)379,175(65.06)120,668(20.70)15,830(2.72)582,808(100.00) 3,424,291(82.65)1,878,930(45.35)1,075,654(25.96)1,545,361(37.30)718,964(17.35)4,143,255(100.00) 11,467,713(87.74)7,835,068(59.94)5,194,991(39.75)3,632,645(27.79)1,602,711(12.26)13,070,424(100.00)< 3-4> (2008)(: , %): 1) < 3-1> .2) ( ) .: , http://stat2.smba.go.kr/index.jsp . , , , , .3. . 155. 142 () (7), , , (83), (102), , , , (106) . 2006 5 , , , , .. , . . . 0.33% 5,000 5 . 1 4 70% 30% . . 156. 3 143 . . 69) . . , , , , , . 8, , , , 0.52.0%. . . . 69) 2010 3/4 3.96% . 157. 144 () . . . . 90% 100% .. . . , , , , , , 158. 3 145. . , , , , . , 200 13 , 20 , , , 250 . . . , .. , , 70) 70) 2010 95 . 159. 146 () . , , . . , 47 ., , , () () SSM(super-super market) . , , . .4. . . 160. 3 147 . , 2008 3 28%, 5 18%, 8 15% . ., . (2006) (entry) , (pushed) . , , . ., , . 161. 148 () OECD 15.3 21.0 13.1 11.1 27.4 17.7 12.9 10.1 27.4 16.2 12.9 9.9 26.3 16.1 12.4 9.5 25.8 15.0 11.5 9.2 21.6 14.4 11.3 7.5 21.6 13.7 11.1 6.8< 3-5> OECD (2008)(: %): 2007 .: ILO. 1980 30% 2008 25.3% . (OECD) 15.3% , 6.8%, 12.9%, 9.9%, 9.2%, 9.5% . OECD (27.4%), (27.4%), (26.3%) , . . OECD . , , , ,, . 162. 3 149 OECD 18.8 10.3 OECD 16.7 10.0 38.1 20.8 27.8 26.3 42.5 11.7 32.1 10.4 37.1 11.3 32.0 6.7 35.8 13.5 27.3 15.5 34.1 12.3 31.2 16.5 22.6 8.3 17.3 13.8 12.8 12.8 11.3 19.1 12.6 5.5 7.7 4.4 11.8 5.0 12.8 11.0< 3-6> OECD (2008)(: %): 2007 .: ILO. ([2009]), 1 , , OECD 89.5%p , 10.4.11.2%p . ., . 163. 150 (). . (2009) . . 1980 (skill-biased technologicalchange) .(2006) 10 . . (selection bias) .. . 2003 , 2005 5 . , , , , , . 164. 3 151 . , . , . , , . , . .2005 . . 165. 152 () . . , . . . . , . , , . . . . 166. 3 153 . . . , . .71) . .3 1. (microcredit: MC) 71) . 167. 154 () . 1970 MC MC . MC . , MC . . MC (Helms[2006]). , MC . , , , . , MC , MC . , MC () (screening) (monitoring) 168. 3 155 (Armendriz and Morduch[2005]). (credit) . MC (asymmetry of information) . MC , (moral hazard) . MC . , MC . 72) MC 1970 , . MF Joseph Blatchford 72) 1950 , (development financial institutions) (moral hazard) , (target group) . 169. 156 () 1961 ACCION . , , , (micro-enterprise) . , . ACCION 1973 . , , . ACCION 2006 10 240 36 MF . MC 1976 Muhammad Yunus . . , , 1979 , 1981 Grameen 170. 3 157 . Grameen 2007 102, 65 , .ACCION Grameen (microcredit: MC) 1970 , , .1980 MC . MC . 90% , 73) . MC (Microfinance institution: MFI) , Bank Rakyat Indonesia(BRI) . 1970 MC 73) MC . 171. 158 () . , , , . MC MC , 1980 . 1970 . MC MC MC . Grameen 1983 ,74) MFI ACLEDA , RBI MC MC . , MC MFI MC .1990 74) BancoSol, Finamerica, Genesis-BancoSol, FINSOL, Milbanco NGO . 172. 3 159 MC (microfinance: MF) , MF .MFI MC (savings accounts), (money transfer), , MF MC . , (microfinanceinstitutions: MFI) ACCION Grameen MFI MFI MF . , MFI . 1980 MFI (commercial bank) MFI , (securitization), (structured securities) ., (The World Bank), (European Bank forReconstruction and Development) (International FinancialInstitutions: IFIs) MF MFI , , MF .75)75) (aids) MFI . 2000 (The Micro-enterprise for Self-reliance Act) (United States Agency for International Development) 50% , , , 173. 160 ()1980 MFI , , 2000 . MF MF . MF . MFI . MFI ,76) MF , MFI MFI . , MF . 2000 .2. , , MC MC , MC MC .EMN(European Microfinance Network) (EuropeanCommission) 2003 MC MC , 2 (ACP group) 2005 EU-ACP MF .76) Profund, AfriCap, Unitus, Andromeda, Omidyar-Tufts Micro-finance Fund, Dexia Fund . 174. 3 161 MC MC Overview of the Microfinance Sector in the European Union . MC , 2008 MC . 2008 MC 20062007 , 27 21 23 94 MC .2007 MC 3 9,400 , 2006 14%, 32% . MC 10 25,000 , , , , , , , . , , , MC . MC , 39% 20 , 400 20% . 11,000 , , , , , , . MC (NGO) 28%, (foundation) 26%, 17% NGO MC MC . , , , , MC 20% . 175. 162 () , , , NGO , , , . MC , Social Work Fund MC . MC . MC , , (financial exclusion) , , MC , MC . MC , , NGO MC , , , MC , MC . , MC .MC , MC 60% 2000 , 10 30% . MC 2/3 5 , 20 15% . MC , , 176. 3 163, NGO MC MC . MC , 32% . , . , , , , 25 , MC . , , , , , , 25 , , .MC 6 8 70% 35 . 1 10%, 6 15% . 2/3 1 2 , 6 . . (16.3%), (14.5%), (13.2.%) 10% , 58% , Euribor , . MC , NGO , , , MC 10% . 177. 164 ()[ 3-3] MC : (: %): Jayo et al.(2008). 40% MC , 38% MC . 43% MC , (43%), (33%), (21%) . MC (peer pressure) 17% .MC 62,100 525 , 25,000 MC , , . ,MC , , , 178. 3 165[ 3-4] MC (: %): Jayo et al.(2008). 10,000 , NGO, , . (GNI) 5070% , (193%) (116%) , (27%), (38%),(38%), (47%) . . , , , , , MC . 179. 166 () 40 . 12% 94% , 22% MC . 10 22% . MC , 16% . (23%) (29%) , (20%) (12%) . MC 100% . (operating revenue) (operating cost) , MC 80% , 128% 5% . , 80% MC 26% . 89% , 96% 40%, 91% 73% . MC , MC . MC 37% 5% , 30 14% . (write-off ratio) 5% 68% . 180. 3 167 , 66% , 28% . , , , MC 59% , 41% , 13% . NGO MC ,, , , , MC .MC , , , , MC . MC MC . MC , MC . MC . MC ., MC 181. 168 (). MC , , , . MC . , 1970 . , ., . MC NGO MC . MC 5% . , ., MC 182. 3 169 , MC ., MC . , , , target group . , , , . , . ., MC (involvement) . FranceInitiative, ICO . , MC MC , MC Community Development Finance Institutions(CDFI) MC . , MC 183. 170 () 250 5,000 4,300 25.5 50 1,000 1,000 163.9 10 200 200 2.128.8 KfW .3. . EC(2007) , , MC . MC 10 , ( ) 200 (micro-enterprise) , , 25,000 .MC < 3-7> EC(2007) (small and medium enterprises) . EC(2007) MC 1970 < 3-7> : .: EC(2007). 184. 3 171 . MC 77) . , 1990 MC , , , MF .. MC 2006 (Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs) . , (social cohesion) , MC . (innovation) . , . MC . MC MC ., 77) MC 90% , MC . 185. 172 () MC . , , . , . , . . MC . MC 2000 (regional cohesion policy). () , , . MC . MC . . MC . 186. 3 173 MC 2007 EC (A European Initiative for the Development of Micro-credit in Support of Growth and Employment: EIDMC)78) . EIDMC , MC .. MC EIDMC 2004 , 70, 63 MC 50, 50 . (asymmetry of information) . , , . .EIDMC MC . , . MC . 78) EC(2007) . 187. 174 () MC .79)MC . MC . MC MC , MC , MC , , MC , MC . , . MC , MC . , , . , MC . , European Microfinance Network, Microfinance Center for79) MF MF . MF . MF . 188. 3 175Central and Eastern Europe . MC , MC , MC . , MC . MC ,, . 2008 5,000 Joint Action to Support Microfinance Institutionsin Europe(JASMINE) , 2009 5 PROGRESSMicro-finance Facility MC . MC . MC .. MC 1) Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme200713(CIP) CIP. CIP Entrepreneurship and Innovation Programme(EIP), Information CommunicationTechnologies Support Programme(ICP), Intelligent Energy Europe(IEP) . 2007 2013 8 EIP 21 7,000, ICT 7 2,550, IEP 7 2,550 36 2,100 CIP .CIP MC 189. 176 () EIP. EIP , , , (eco-innovation) , , .80) , , (European Investment Bank) , Enterprise EuropeNetwork . . . . EIP (quasi-equity) High Growth and Innovative SME Facility(GIF), SME Guarantee FacilitySMEG), PEF(private equity fund) Capacity Building Scheme(SBC) . SMEG MC . SMEG EC EIF(European Investment Fund) , SME , 80) Decision No 1639/2006/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 October2006 establishing a Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme(2007 to2013), Article 10 . 190. 3 177, , (businesstransfer) (mezzaninefinancing) , (securitization) (window) .81) SMEG MC , 9 6 25,000 .82) MC 75% . MC SMEG MC 50,000 (technical support) .2) Joint European Resources for Micro to MediumEnterprises(JEREMIE) . (regional cohesion policy) (Cohesion Fund), (European Social Fund), (European Regional Development Fund) , (Structural Fund). (convergence) 81) Decision No 1639/2006/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 October2006 establishing a Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme(2007 to2013), Article 19 .82) (co-guarantee) (counter guarantee) . 191. 178 () ERDF Social FundCohesionFund82% / ERDF Social Fund 16% ERDF 2%< 3-8> EC : 2007 2013 3,474. (Trans-European Transport Network) . , , , , . , ,, , .JEREMIE EC, EIB, EIF . EC ERDF JEREMIE , .JEREMIE 2007 2008 , [ 3-5] . 25 75 100 JEREMIE EIF . JEREMIE , , 192. 3 179ERDFEIF/EIBJEREMIEHolding Fund MC SME,,[ 3-5] JEREMIE .83)3) Joint Action to Support Microfinance Institutions inEurope(JASMINE)JASMINE 2007 EIDMC MC 2008 EC EIF . JASMINE MC MC , . MC CIP SMEG JEREMIE , MC .JASMINE EIF EC 5,000 MC .84) JASMINE MC , MC . MC 83) http://www.eif.org/jeremie/activity/index.htm .84) 2008 9 , 2009 1 . 193. 180 ()[ 3-6] JASMINE JASMINE . JASMINE MC MC . MC MC . , JASMINE . MC JASMINE . MC .JASMINE MC . MC , , , MC EC (DGMC ( , )JASMINE(EIF, EC - EIF )50:50 194. 3 181Regional Policy) JASMINE .4) PROGRESS Micro-finance Facility(PMF)2007 2008 . , . 2009 3 Shared Committment for Employment(SCE) .85) . SCE . EC 1 EIF MC .PROGRESS Micro-credit Facility(PMF) SEC MC . PMF 2007 PROGRESS86) , [ 3-5] JEREMIE . EC PROGRESS 1 4 5 85) Shared Committment for Employment(SCE) MC EU 1 EIF MC .86) PROGRESS (employment) (social inclusion) ,2007 2013 74,325 . , (social protection) (inclusion), , , . DECISION No 1672/2006/EC . 195. 182 () . EIF MC , (debt instruments) , , 8 45,000MC .. MC . . , MC . MC . 1990 MC . MC MC . MC MC ., MC . MC 196. 3 183 MC . MC . , . 1970 . MC . MC . . . . , MC . . ., MC 197. 184 () MC . MC . MC MC ., . MC . MC , , , . EC , , , , , .4 MC 1. MC MC 2000 2002 . (Grameen Bank) MC . . (group lending) 198. 3 185 2000 6 2002 9 38 4,900 203 4,000 , , , KT, SKT 30 6,800 158 3,0001 100500 2,000 4% 04%( 2%)< 3-9> : 2008 . MC .87) 20002008 157 30 6,836 , 93% . . MC . MC . 2003 10 2 3,000 2008 727, 158 3,000 . . NGO MC , , 87) MC Armendriz and Morduch(2005) . 199. 186 () MC .2. MC . MC 2000 MC MC . , 2003 MC . MC MC . MC 2005 20 MC . 2009 330 . . MC MC , 1 , . MC 1/3 120% 150% . 200. 3 187 2,000 1 . 5 6 64 2% . MC . MC MC MC MC . MC . . , , . , MC . MC 2008 25 6 , 4 , 6% . MC MC MC MC 201. 188 () . MC , MC . 10 ( 5 ) 5,000 1 4 0.33%p . 5,000 , MC .. MC MC . MC 2008 MC . MC 2008 2 MC 4 200 180 MC . MC . MC . MC MC 202. 3 189 .. 2008 MC 2008 88) . , MC . 2009 . MC MC .3. MC MC MC 88) . 2009 . , , , , , . 203. 190 ()()ABC ( )() * 302 , [ 3-7] 2009 10 . MC . . 204. 3 191 . MC , , , , , MC . MC , , , , , , , MC . 2020 2 . 5 1 , 1 . 7,000, 2,500, 500 . , , , , . , 5,000 5 4.5% . . 1 , , , 1,000 5 4.5% . , 1 , , 205. 192 (), . , , , 500 5 2% . 7 . , ,89) 50% , . 2010 1 , 201010 10,416 687.7 . 4,642 449.6 5,774 238.1 . 2010 6 20 , , 10 129.8 .4. MC MC MC . 89) 1 3,500, 8,000 . 206. 3 193 , MC . MC , MC .. MC . MC 90) MC . MC MC . . . 90) MC . 207. 194 () . MC . , MC . MC . MC MC . 2003 2008 . MC . MC MC MC . MC MC MC . 208. 3 195. MC MC , , . MC . MC , . MC . MC MC .MC . MC . MC . , 4.5% . 209. 196 () MC 15% . . MC . MC . MC . MC , . MC . MC MC . MC . , MC 210. 3 197 . MC MC MC . MC 15% 91) , , , , . MC . . MC . MC 5% . MC , MC . MC MC . 91) (2009) . 211. 198 () MC . MC MC . MC MC , , , . MC . 1997 . , . 70