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National Transfer

Account China

NTA Workshop I

NUPRI, Tokyo, Japan

Qiulin CHEN 陈秋霖

CCER, Peking University

Beijing, China

October 27, 2005

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Description

• Rural NTA -- Only rural individual survey data now – Household survey from the Department of Agriculture– Annually statistic data: Statistic Yearbook, and other

special yearbook– Population census data (aggregate)

• Has to combine the individual and household data – Has not cleaned it well. Should be more careful

• Household expenditure/income data– Can not reach some results required

A Practice -- Preparation for the researchA Practice -- Preparation for the research

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• Some results

• The great curve

• NTA Table

What we have?

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Lifecycle Deficit

• 1.2.1 earnings Income from labor working for a factory or gove

rnment• 1.2.2 benefits

no benefit data in this survey• 1.2.3 self-employment labor income

Farmers are regarded as self-employment and 2/3 of their income is calculated as labor earnings

Labor Income

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Wage income enterorise labor income Total Labor Income 2

Total labor income

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• About the Labor income– Lowess the sum or

sum those have been lowessed

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Lifecycle Deficit

• About the wage – The young have more labor

earning because many young rural people work outside the village, which is an important reason of “China Price”.

– Something may be wrong with the older group.

– Use estimation to deal with the wage because have no individual wage

– Using average of wage in an family will got another result.

Wage income (estimated)

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wage by average

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Lifecycle Deficit

1.1.1       Public consumption Use the structure of Government Budgetary Expenditure to estimate the government consumption

expenditure (in the national account)– 1.1.1.1 Education

Distribute the total education expenditure by the budgetary expenditure of school at different level. Estimate the student number at different level by age ( using the enrollment at different level by age from the census data)

– 1.1.1.2 Health

Per capita (because it is public health expenditure) – 1.1.1.3 Others

Per public 

Consumption

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private consumption public consumption Total Consumption

1.1.2 Private consumption

Only have total household consumption data, so just deal with them by the estimation on the other consumption.

No estimation of health and education expenditureH

–Education–Health –Others

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Asset Reallocation

• 2.2 Private Asset Reallocations

• 2.2.1.1 Private capital inflow– Inflow: income from the capital and borrow from the bank

– Banks lend most money for production in rural China

Income on private capital and Credit inflow

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income from fixed capital capital income (1/ 3) borrow from the bank other borrow

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Asset Reallocation

• 2.2.1.2 Private capital onflow– Onflow: operational investment, bond and saving, interest payed – Banks lend most money for production in rural China

• 2.2.2 Private land– Land is owned by the government, the privatization is a hot topic now.

• 2.2.3 Credit–  inflow

Private Investment

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operational investment bond and saving interest

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Asset Reallocation

• 2.1 Public Asset Reallocations– Because of the data restriction, we use the public capital income as residual and calc

ulate the public saving.– Public saving is the net government debt (both domestic and foreign)= new debt – p

ay for interest and principle

• 3.1 Public Transfers– Inflow:No cash inflow, only government expenditure.– Outflow:tax are distribute according their related payers

Public saving and Public transfer

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Public saving Public Transfer

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Transfers

• 3.2 Private Transfers– Intra-house transfer: can not estimate now. Need househol

d health/education/ other expenditure share – inter house transfer: support from relatives outside the fam

ily

Inter-house transfer

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The Great Cure of China－ individual

• Why the older has no deficit of surplus?– Check carefully the consistency of the data– The estimation method

• household total consumption • Wage earning may be overvalued

The great curve now looks not very great! ?The great curve now looks not very great! ?

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ConsumptionLabor Income

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NTA table of Rural China － aggregate

• Only aggregate the rural data (rural population)

• Population distribution: Use the current total population (2002) distributed by the population census data (2000)

Table 1. National Transfer Flow Account, country, year (currency and units), aggregate, nominal Total 0~9 10~19 20~29 30~39 40~49 50~59 60~69 70~79 80~89 90+

Lifecycle Deficit (60330.34) 2940.82 1452.51 (13778.51) (23586.75) (14571.17) (9062.43) (3252.29) (470.96) (3.52) 1.94Consumption 31454.92 2964.01 5623.66 5110.31 5790.18 4870.12 3329.88 2187.21 1251.39 307.90 20.25 Public 9057.45 1358.59 2221.18 1370.17 1488.33 1024.41 725.30 502.49 284.52 76.27 6.19 Private 22397.47 1605.42 3402.48 3740.14 4301.85 3845.72 2604.58 1684.72 966.87 231.62 14.06Less: Labor income 91785.27 23.19 4171.15 18888.82 29376.94 19441.29 12392.31 5439.50 1722.35 311.41 18.32ReallocationsAsset Reallocations (51509.47) 1842.47 371.34 (11741.11) (19339.62) (11852.18) (7493.00) (2811.52) (471.80) (14.23) 0.18 Public (42490.77) 1849.12 (277.62) (15298.65) (26200.33) (10139.80) 897.66 3509.45 2632.91 505.00 31.49 Income on Assets (38505.34) 2422.29 487.65 (14717.45) (25486.04) (9611.21) 1271.92 3768.73 2779.72 544.36 34.69 Less: Public Saving 3985.43 573.18 765.28 581.20 714.29 528.59 374.25 259.28 146.81 39.36 3.19 Private (9018.70) (6.65) 648.96 3557.54 6860.71 (1712.38) (8390.66) (6320.97) (3104.70) (519.23) (31.32) Income on Assets 30446.59 5.20 653.49 3860.71 10504.98 8353.71 4803.49 1764.78 459.46 40.77 0.00 Less: Private Saving 39465.29 11.85 4.53 303.17 3644.28 10066.09 13194.15 8085.75 3564.16 560.00 31.32Transfers (8820.88) 1098.35 1081.17 (2037.40) (4247.13) (2718.99) (1569.43) (440.77) 0.84 10.71 1.76 Public (9846.19) 1098.35 1081.06 (2056.43) (4377.28) (2977.19) (1803.57) (675.94) (133.93) (3.01) 1.76 Private 1025.31 0.00 0.11 19.03 130.15 258.20 234.15 235.17 134.77 13.72 0.00 Intervivos Bequests

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Problems

研• About definition

• About methodology

• About data

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National Transfer Account formula

Lifecycle Deficit Asset Reallocation Transfers

IncomeConsumption Income Investment OutflowInflow

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What’s going on?

• Access of proper database

– Population census data

– Expenditure survey data

– Health service data

• Adjusting statistical items to NTA account

– As a transitional country, there is a lot of policy and institutional factors

– As a big country, the difference among area may affect the consistency

• Theoretical discussion

– Lifecycle transfers in Marco-econ Model

• Method development

– Other way to solve coming problems

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nks

Welcome to CHINA

Peking Univ.CCER

谢谢

Thanks!