Ky yeu 2012_KT.pdf

K yu Khoa hc 2012 Trng i hc Cn Th

i

MC LC Trang

Chuyn 1: Pht trin kinh t v thu nhp ca h gia nh nh hng ca cnh tranh n u t ca doanh nghip ng bng sng Cu Long L Khng Ninh v Hunh Hu Th ............................................................................................................... 1 Phn tch cc yu t nh hng n thu ht u t ca doanh nghip vo khu cng nghip ti thnh ph Cn Th Nguyn Th Ninh Thun v Bi Vn Trnh .................................................................................................... 12 Nghin cu tc ng ca khu cng nghip n s thay i thu nhp ca cng ng b thu hi t: Trng hp khu cng nghip Ho Ph tnh Vnh Long Nguyn Quc Nghi, Nguyn Th Bo Chu, Nguyn inh Yn Oanh,Nguyn Th Thanh Hu v Trng Toi Nguyn ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng s hi lng trong kt hn quc t - trng hp ph n BSCL ly chng i Loan/Hn Quc L Nguyn oan Khi ................................................................................................................................... 29 Phn tch li th cnh tranh ngnh ch bin thy sn xut khu thnh ph cn th theo phng php PACA Nguyn Quc Nghi, Nguyn inh Yn Oanh, Phan Vn Phng v Nguyn Bch Ngc ................................ 38 Chuyn 2: Li th ngnh v pht trin doanh nghip Gii php pht trin ngnh thng mi & dch v thnh ph Cn Th tr thnh trung tm ng lc pht trin ng bng sng Cu Long Lu Thanh c Hi v Nguyn Quc Nghi .................................................................................................. 47 Doanh nghip, bi cnh, hi l bng chng cc DNTN BSCL, Vit Nam Phan Anh T .................................................................................................................................................. 56

Phn khc th trng khch du lch ti Ph Quc inh Cng Thnh, Nguyn Vn Mn, Phm L Hng Nhung v V Hng Phng ..................................... 70 Phn tch nhng nhn t thc y vic thc hin trch nhim x hi ca cc doanh nghip nh v va thnh ph Cn Th Chu Th L Duyn v Nguyn Minh Cnh ................................................................................................... 81 Phn tch hnh vi tiu dng du n ca ngi dn vng ng bng sng Cu Long Nguyn Th Thy Dung v Lu Tin Thun .................................................................................................. 91 Hiu qu sn xut ca cao tnh Bn Tre Nguyn Hu Tm .......................................................................................................................................... 99 Hoch nh chin lc kinh doanh in ca cng ty in lc hu giang n nm 2020 Th Thanh Vinh v Bo Anh ............................................................................................................. 107 Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n lng trung thnh ca khch hng i vi nc gii kht c gas Pepsi ti thnh ph Cn Th Hunh Phng Linh v Lu Tin Thun .................................................................................................... 115


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Gii php nng cao hiu qu t chc sn xut tiu th la go - trng hp cnh ng mu ln ti An Giang L Nguyn oan Khi v Nguyn Ngc Vng ............................................................................................ 125 Chuyn 3: Th trng ti chnh v tn dng Mi quan h gia ch s gi th trng v khi lng c phiu giao dch trn s giao dch chng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh Trng ng Lc v Trng Vn V ......................................................................................................... 133 Tn dng chnh thc v khng chnh thc ng bng sng cu long: hiu ng tng tc v kh nng tip cn Phan nh Khi .......................................................................................................................................... 144 Tn dng thng mi: Trng hp mua chu vt t nng nghip ca nng h An Giang L Khng Ninh v Cao Vn Hn .............................................................................................................. 166 Vai tr ca tn dng chnh thc trong i sng nng h ng bng sng Cu Long Vng Quc Duy v L Long Hu .............................................................................................................. 175 ng dng m hnh hedonic xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n gi nh cho thu thnh ph Cn Th Nguyn Quc Nghi, Nguyn inh Yn Oanh, Quch Tn Mng Tuyn v Nguyn Th Hi Anh ............... 186 Chuyn 4: nh gi cht lng dch v Gii php nng cao cht lng dch v du lch Ph Quc inh Cng Thnh, Phm L Hng Nhung, V Hng Phng v Mai Th Trit ......................................... 195 Kim nh thang o cht lng dch v trong o to i hc trng hp nghin cu ti cc trng i hc t thc khu vc ng bng sng Cu Long Phm L Hng Nhung, inh Cng Thnh, Nguyn Khnh Vn v L Th Hng Vn ................................ 203 Lng ha cc nhn t tc ng n s hi lng ca ngi s dng dch v thng tin thng k trn a bn tnh Hu Giang Bi Vn Trnh v Lu Ngc Mai Anh ......................................................................................................... 214 p dng m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh trong kim nh mi quan h gia cht lng dch v, s hi lng v lng trung thnh ca khch hng i vi dch v siu th ti thnh ph Cn Th Phm L Hng Nhung, inh Cng Thnh, Phm Th Tho v L Th Hng Vn ...................................... 228 Cht lng o to ngnh qun tr kinh doanh ca khoa kinh t-QTKD, Trng i hc Cn Th: Kt qu kho st nh gi t sinh vin ngnh qun tr kinh doanh Hunh Trng Huy v Nguyn Nht Khim ............................................................................................... 246 Chuyn 5: nh gi hiu qu kinh t u im m hnh phi tham s (Data envelopment analysis) vi trng hp c mu nh v ng dng cng c Meta-frontier m rng ng dng m hnh trong nh gi nng sut v hiu qu sn xut Quan Minh Nht ......................................................................................................................................... 258


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Hiu qu k thut v cc yu t nh hng n hiu qu k thut ca h trng la ng bng sng Cu Long, Vit Nam trong giai on 2008-2011 Nguyn Hu ng ....................................................................................................................................... 268 Risk cost benefit analysis framework under climate change-related disasters: Case of sea dyke in Vietnamese Mekong delta Vo Thanh Danh ........................................................................................................................................... 276

Chuyn 1: Pht trin kinh t

v thu nhp ca h gia nh

K yu Khoa hc 2012: 1-11 Trng i hc Cn Th

1

NH HNG CA CNH TRANH N U T CA DOANH NGHIP NG BNG SNG CU LONG

L Khng Ninh1 v Hunh Hu Th2 ABSTRACT

This paper aims to estimate the effect of competition on firms investment using the primary data collected from 473 firms in the Mekong River Delta (MRD). The results show that investment is a inverted-U shaped function of competition and sales uncertainty. In addition, profit, sales growth and irreversibility have positive effects on the firms investment. Based in the results found, the paper comes up with solutions to stimulus investment of firms in the MRD. Keywords: Investment, competition, uncertainty, equity, reversibility Title: Impact of competition on investment by firms in the Mekong River Delta

TM TT Mc tiu ca bi vit l c lng nh hng ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca doanh nghip (DN) thng qua h thng d liu s cp c thu thp ngu nhin t 473 DN ngoi quc doanh ng bng sng Cu Long. Kt qu c lng cho thy u t l hm bc hai c dng ch U ngc () ca mc cnh tranh m DN phi i mt. Tng t, nh hng ca s khng chc chn ca DN v th trng u ra n u t cng phi tuyn vi dng . Bn cnh , li nhun, tng trng doanh thu v kh nng sang nhng ti sn DN c tc ng thun chiu n u t ca DN. Trn c s kt qu c lng, bi vit xut gii php thc y u t ca DN. T kha: u t doanh nghip, cnh tranh, khng chc chn, vn t c, kh nng

sang nhng ti sn 1 GII THIU u t l hot ng ch yu quyt nh s ra i, tn ti v pht trin ca DN. Bt c DN no cng phi u t to dng c s vt cht, k thut ban u (nh xy dng c bn, mua sm, lp t my mc, thit b), duy tr v m rng hot ng. V vy, vic gia tng u t mt cch hp l s gp phn nng cao hiu qu kinh doanh, gip DN tng trng bn vng, qua thc y kinh t pht trin (Nickell, 1996). Thc t cho thy cnh tranh l yu t c vai tr quyt nh i vi u t ca DN. Cnh tranh buc cc DN phi y mnh u t to ra sn phm, dch v c cht lng tt hn vi chi ph thp hn. Thiu cnh tranh s lm cho nn kinh t tr tr, chm pht trin. Tuy nhin, cnh tranh l mt th ru, nu dng ng liu th l cht kch thch, nu dng qu liu th tr thnh thuc c (Brault, 2006). Nu cnh tranh qu gay gt hay trn th trng c qu nhiu DN cng hot ng, s cung hng ha s tng cao, vt qu s cu, khin cho hng ha b ng v li nhun ca DN gim st. Do , cc sai lm trong quyt nh u t c th dn n tnh trng lng ph, thm ch l ph sn ca DN. Do , cn c s iu tit cnh tranh ca Chnh ph kch thch DN u t nhm gip nn kinh t pht trin bn vng. 1 PGs.Ts; Khoa Kinh t - Qun tr Kinh doanh, Trng i hc Cn Th 2 Hc vin cao hc; Khoa Kinh t - Qun tr Kinh doanh, Trng i hc Cn Th


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Vi nhn thc trn, bi vit c hnh thnh c lng nh hng ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca DN BSCL nhm xut gii php gip DN c chin lc u t hp l nng cao hiu qu kinh doanh, m bo s pht trin bn vng cho DN ni ring v cho nn kinh t ni chung. p ng mc tiu trn, bi vit s dng h thng s liu s cp c thu thp ngu nhin t 473 DN ngoi quc doanh BSCL. 2 C S L THUYT V M HNH NGHIN CU Cnh tranh thc y DN tng cng u t to ra sn phm c cht lng ngy cng cao vi chi ph thp nhm p ng tt hn nhu cu v th hiu ca ngi tiu dng. Tuy nhin, cnh tranh cng mang li cc h qu khng mong mun cho DN ni ring v x hi ni chung. Do , mi quan h gia cnh tranh v u t ca DN lun c rt nhiu nh nghin cu quan tm nhm xc nh mt mc cnh tranh thch hp kch thch DN u t pht trin. Trong , Romer (1990) v Nickell (1996) ch ra mi quan h tuyn tnh gia mc cnh tranh v u t ca DN, ngha l nh hng ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca DN c th l thun hay nghch chiu. Tuy nhin, nhiu nghin cu li nhn thy mi quan h gia mc cnh tranh v u t ca DN l phi tuyn, c dng (Nielsen, 2002; Aghion & cng s, 2005; Moretto, 2008; Akdogu & Mackay, 2008; Polder & Veldhuizen, 2012). Cc nghin cu ny cho rng cc DN hot ng trong mi trng t cnh tranh thng c chi ph hot ng tng i cao nn s ch trng u t ci tin k thut, p dng tin b khoa hc, cng ngh vo sn xut lm gim chi ph. Khi p lc cnh trang cng cao, DN s u t cng nhiu cho mc tiu . Khng nhng th, trong mi trng cnh tranh, DN cn y mnh u t nhm ngn chn cc DN khc, gip DN thot khi p lc cnh tranh t cc i th hin hu cng nh tim n. V vy, vi mc cnh tranh trn th trng thp th mt s gia tng ca cnh tranh s lm cho DN u t nhiu hn. Tc ng thun chiu ca mc cnh tranh n u t ch c hiu lc khi mc cnh tranh trn th trng thp hn mt gii hn nht nh. Khi mc cnh tranh vt qua gii hn , tc ng tiu cc ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca DN s xut hin. Nguyn nhn l do c qu nhiu DN cnh tranh trn th trng lm cho s cung vt qu s cu th trng, khin hng ha b ng v li nhun s gim nn DN s gim u t. Mt khc, cc DN mun cnh tranh vi DN dn u trc ht phi y mnh u t vt qua trnh trung bnh ca cc DN trong ngnh. Tuy nhin, iu ny hu nh khng th bi v, khi cnh tranh trn th trng qu gay gt, khong trng trn th trng khng DN pht trin, kh nng chim lnh th trng v li ch t vic y mnh u t ca DN s cng gim. V vy, u t ca DN s gim dn cng vi s gia tng ca mc cnh tranh. Tm li, u t ca DN l hm s bc hai c dng ca mc cnh tranh trn th trng. Trn c s cc lp lun va trnh by, bi vit hnh thnh m hnh c lng nh hng ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca DN BSCL nh sau:

2210 COMPCOMPINV (1)


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Trong m hnh (1), bin ph thuc INV l u t d kin ca DN nm 2011, o lng bng t s gia gi tr u t d kin vo my mc, thit b, t ai v nh xng nm 2011 v gi tr ti sn ca DN. Vic chia gi tr u t cho gi tr ti sn nhm loi tr nh hng ca quy m n u t DN (Andrade v Stafford, 2004; L Khng Ninh, Hermes & Lanjouw, 2004). COMP l mc cnh tranh, o lng bng h s co gin li nhun (profit elasticity PE). PE do Boone (2000) xy dng v c pht trin bi Boone (2001, 2008), Boone & Leuvensteijn (2010), Polder & Veldhuizen (2012),1... Theo cc nghin cu ny, 1% gia tng ca chi ph bin s dn n s phn trm gim i ca li nhun s cng ln nu mc cnh tranh cng cao. iu cho thy mc cnh tranh trn th trng c th c o lng thng qua mi quan h gia li nhun )( v chi ph bin ca DN )(MC . Ni cch khc, PE c tnh theo cng thc sau: 0

//

MCMC

PE

V chi ph bin rt kh o lng nn cc nghin cu s dng chi ph trung bnh (AC) thay th. Ngoi ra, tin cho vic tnh chi ph trung bnh ca cc DN hot ng trong nhiu lnh vc khc nhau, chi ph trung bnh s l t s gia tng chi ph v tng doanh thu )/( TRTCAC . Khi , cng thc tnh PE c iu chnh thnh:

0//

ACAC

PE vi TR/

Khi mc cnh tranh cng cao, PE s cng thp. Cho nn, tin cho vic gii thch nh hng ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca DN, bi vit o lng mc cnh tranh bng bin COMP vi PECOMP . Gi tr ca bin COMP cng ln chng t DN ang hot ng trong mi trng cnh tranh cng cao. COMP2 l bnh phng ca COMP, c s dng nhm kim nh mi quan h phi tuyn gia mc cnh tranh v u t ca DN. C th, mi quan h ny c dng . Nielsen (2002), Aghion & cng s (2005), Moretto (2008), Akdogu v Mackay (2008) hay Polder & Veldhuizen (2012) cho rng khi mc cnh tranh gia tng nhng vn thp hn mt gii hn nht nh, u t ca DN s tng. Tuy nhin, khi mc cnh tranh vt qua gii hn , DN s gim u t. V vy, h s 1 c k vng l dng v h s 2 l m. Tuy nhin, trnh khim khuyt, bi vit cn bao gm cc yu t khc c nh hng n u t ca DN m cc nghin cu trc y ch ra (nh s khng chc chn v th trng u ra, tng trng doanh thu, li nhun, ...). Khi , m hnh c lng c iu chnh nh sau:

TRADEMANUFIRMSIZEEXPORTRISKATTPOLEDUVOCABRIBRIIRRDSALASSPROPROCEVCEVCOMPCOMPINV

18171615

141312112

10987

652

432

210

(2)

1 H s co gin li nhun c nh ngha l s phn trm gim i ca li nhun khi chi ph bin tng ln 1%.


4

CEV l mc khng chc chn v th trng u ra ca DN, o lng bng h s bin i doanh thu k vng ca DN (Guiso & Parigi, 1999; L Khng Ninh, Hermes & Lanjouw, 2004; Lensink, Van Steen & Sterken, 2005). Nu h s bin i doanh thu k vng ca DN cng cao th mc khng chc chn v th trng u ra s cng cao. CEV2 l bnh phng ca CEV, c s dng nhm kim nh mi quan h phi tuyn gia mc khng chc chn v th trng u ra v u t ca DN. Nhiu nghin cu (nh Pindyck, 1993; Abel & Eberly, 1999; Bo & Lensink, 2005) lp lun rng, vi mc khng chc chn thp, vic gia tng ca mc khng chc chn lm cho li nhun k vng to ra t hot ng u t s tng dn, do kch thch u t ca DN. Tuy nhin, s khng chc chn gia tng mc cao s lm cho chi ph s dng ca vn v chi ph c hi ca u t vt qu li nhun k vng ca DN. Ngoi ra, mc khng chc chn cao s khin DN thn trng hn nn s gim u t. V vy, h s 3 c k vng l dng v h s 4 l m. PRO l li nhun tch ly ca DN, o lng bng t s gia li nhun sau thu v gi tr ti sn nm 2010 ca DN. Bo v Lensink (2005) v L Khng Ninh (2008) cho rng u t ca DN ph thuc ch yu vo ngun ti chnh ni b ca DN (hay li nhun tch ly t nm trc) do thng gp kh khn trong vic vay tn dng. V vy, bi vit c lng h s 5 nhm kim nh nh hng ca vn t c (hay nh hng ca hn ch tn dng) n u t ca DN. H s 5 c k vng l dng.

ASSPRO l tch s ca PRO v gi tr ti sn ca DN (ASS). Bin s ny c s dng nhm kim nh s ph thuc ca mc hn ch tn dng vo quy m DN. Ly o hm ring ca INV theo PRO, ta c:

ASSPROINV

65

Kt qu ny cho thy, nu ASS thay i 1 n v th mc ph thuc ca u t vo li nhun (t s PROINV / ) s thay i mt lng bng 6 . Theo Beck & Demirguc-Kunt (2006) v L Khng Ninh (2008), cc DN ln c gi tr ti sn th chp cao hn cc DN nh nn cho vay DN ln thng s an ton hn cho cc t chc tn dng. Ngoi ra, do c chi ph cho vay ln chi ph kim sot ngi vay u c tnh kinh t quy m nn cc t chc tn dng s u i cc DN ln hn cc DN nh. Kt qu l cc DN ln s d vay hn nn u t s t ph thuc vo li nhun hn. V vy, h s 6 c k vng l m. DSAL l tc tng trng doanh thu ca DN (%). Doanh thu tng trng nhanh ng ngha vi trin vng kinh doanh tt. Do , DN s tng u t khai thc cc c hi c c nhm m rng th phn (Guiso & Parigi, 1999; L Khng Ninh, Hermes & Lanjouw, 2004; L Khng Ninh, 2008). Do , h s 7 c k vng l dng. IRR l kh nng sang nhng ti sn ca DN. o lng kh nng sang nhng ti sn, DN c yu cu nh gi xem kh nng sang nhng ti sn ca DN c d dng hay khng hnh thnh bin IRR1 (c gi tr 1 nu kh nng sang nhng ti sn l d dng v c gi tr 0 nu ngc li) v c on gi tr sang nhng ti sn ca DN so vi gi tr ban u hnh thnh bin IRR2 (t s gia gi sang nhng v gi mua ban u ca ti sn DN).


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Ngoi ra, bi vit cn s dng phng php phn tch nhn t kt hp IRR1 v IRR2 thnh IRR nhm o lng kh nn sang nhng ti sn c chnh xc hn

)21( 21 IRRIRRIRR . Gi tr IRR cng cao th kh nng sang nhng ti sn cng cao. Theo nhiu nghin cu (nh Guiso & Parigi, 1999; L Khng Ninh, Hermes & Lanjouw, 2004), hu ht cc quyt nh u t ca DN l khng th o ngc bi kh sang nhng ti sn. Do , nu d sang nhng ti sn hay/v gi tr thu hi ti sn cao khi sang nhng li th DN s u t nhiu hn. V vy, h s 8 c k vng l dng. BRI l chi ph bi trn, o lng bng t s gia s tin bi trn v gi tr ti sn ca DN. BRI2 (bnh phng ca BRI) c s dng nhm kim nh mi quan h phi tuyn gia chi ph bi trn v u t ca DN. Nu c bi trn, b my hnh chnh quan liu s vn hnh trn tru hn, nh DN tranh th c cc c hi sinh li nn s u t nhiu hn. Tuy nhin, cc cn b bin cht c th c tnh ko di thi gian gii quyt cng vic buc DN bi trn nhiu hn. Hn na, nu chi ph bi trn qu ln, li nhun k vng t hot ng u t s gim khin DN s gim u t. Do , mi quan h gia chi ph bi trn v u t ca DN s c dng (Svensson, 2005; L Khng Ninh, 2008). V vy, h s 9 s c k vng l dng v h s 10 l m. VOCA l s ln tham d cc lp tp hun chuyn mn ca ngi qun l DN (ln). Vic tham d cc lp tp hun chuyn mn c th gip cho h nng cao nng lc qun l, cp nht kin thc v cc th tc, chnh sch c lin quan,... Bn cnh , cc lp tp hun cng c th gip cc nh qun l to dng mi quan h tt vi khch hng v nh cung cp, m ra nhiu c hi kinh doanh mi cho DN, t kch thch DN u t nhiu hn (L Khng Ninh, 2008). Do , h s 11 c k vng l dng. EDU l trnh hc vn ca ban qun l DN, c o lng bng s nm i hc bnh qun ca ban qun l DN. Trnh hc vn cng cao th s cng d tip thu cc kin thc khoa hc k thut cng nh khoa hc qun l mi, gip DN hot ng hiu qu hn nn thc y DN u t nhiu hn (L Khng Ninh, 2008). V vy, h s 12 c k vng l dng. POL phn nh s hi lng ca DN i vi chnh sch khuyn khch u t ca a phng (c gi tr l 1 nu DN hi lng vi chnh sch khuyn khch u t ca a phng v c gi tr l 0 nu ngc li). Nu DN cng hi lng i vi chnh sch ca a phng th s u t nhiu hn (Blejer & Khan, 1984). V vy, h s

13 c k vng l dng. RISKATT o lng thi ca DN i vi ri ro trong kinh doanh (c gi tr 1 nu DN thch mo him khi u t, ngc li s c gi 0). Andrade & Stafford (2004) v Akdogu & Mackay (2008) cho rng phn ln cc DN u s ri ro. Do , nu ri ro cng cao th DN s t u t hn. Tuy nhin, c DN li thch ri ro bi cho rng nu kinh doanh trong mi trng nhiu ri ro th kh nng sinh li s cao hn nn s u t nhiu hn. V vy, h s 14 c th m hoc dng ty thuc vo thi ca DN i vi ri ro. EXPORT l t trng doanh s xut khu trong tng doanh s ca DN (%). T trng ny cng cao chng t DN cng ph thuc vo th trng ngoi nc. Trong khi , cc tiu chun v cht lng sn phm th trng nc ngoi lun khng


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ngng c nng cao m bo an ton cho ngi tiu dng. V vy, cc DN xut khu phi thng xuyn u t i mi cng ngh nhm p ng yu cu ca i tc (Braga & Willmore, 1991). V vy, h s 15 c k vng l dng. FIRMSIZE l quy m ca DN, o lng bng logarit t nhin ca gi tr ti sn ca DN. Thng thng, DN ln s u t nhiu hn DN nh. Tuy nhin, mt s nghin cu li cho rng DN nh u t nhiu hn DN ln bi DN ln thng km linh hot, t c c hi tng trng v t mun thay i nn khng mnh dn u t (Braga v Willmore, 1991; Akdogu & MacKay, 2008). Do , h s 16 c th m hay dng. Cui cng, MANU v TRADE c dng kim nh s khc bit trong u t ca cc DN kinh doanh cc lnh vc khc nhau, l sn xut, thng mi v dch v. Do , bin MANU c gi tr l 1 i vi DN sn xut v c gi tr l 0 i vi cc DN khc. Bin TRADE c gi tr l 1 i vi DN thng mi v c gi tr l 0 i vi cc DN khc. Cc h s 17 v 18 c th dng hoc m. 3 KT QU NGHIN CU 3.1 Thc trng u t ca cc DN BSCL Doanh thu bnh qun nm 2010 ca cc DN c kho st l 165.273,8 triu ng, tng 22,9% so vi nm 2009. Li nhun bnh qun nm 2010 ca cc DN l 15.820,8 triu ng, tng 20,0% so vi nm 2009. Tuy nhin, chi ph hot ng ca cc DN li tng kh cao (tng 23,2% so vi nm 2009). iu cho thy, tuy doanh thu v li nhun ca DN tng trng kh tt nhng cc DN BSCL cha s dng hiu qu cc ngun lc. Khong 44,4% DN c thc hin bi trn vi chi ph bi trn bnh qun kh cao (138,3 triu ng/nm). Hot ng bi trn ca cc DN BSCL ngy cng tr nn ph bin bi v c n 48,8% DN thc hin bi trn mt cch t nguyn trong khi 45,93% DN xem vic bi trn l quy c ngm. Bng 1: Gi tr u t bnh qun ca cc DN BSCL nm 2010 v d kin nm 2011

Ngun vn u t u t

nm 2010 (triu ng)

u t d kin

nm 2011 (triu ng)

Thay i nm 2011 so vi nm 2010

(%) Vn t c 8.092,52 4.640,71 42,65 Vay NHTM c phn 1.586,96 1.763,66 11,13 Vay NHTM quc doanh 1.459,08 772,40 47,06 Vay NH nc ngoi 215,24 105,14 51,15 Vay h tr li sut ca chnh ph 119,03 1,90 98,40 Vay t ngun vn khc 460,91 378,46 17,89 Tng s tin u t 11.933,73 7.662,27 35,79

Ngun: S liu t kho st nm 2011. Bng 1 cho thy u t bnh qun nm 2010 ca cc DN c kho st khong 11.933,73 triu ng. Do tnh hnh kinh t gp nhiu kh khn v nhu cu th trng gim st nn u t d kin nm 2011 ca cc DN ch cn khong 7.662,27 triu ng, gim 35,79% so vi nm 2010. Ba ngun vn ch yu c DN s dng ti tr cho u t l vn t c, vay vn t NHTM c phn v vay vn t


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NHTM quc doanh. iu ny cho thy ngun vn t c c vai tr rt ln i vi u t ca DN. Ngoi ra, khi quyt nh u t, DN quan tm nht l li nhun, tip theo l mc cnh tranh trn th trng v s khng chc chn v th trng u ra ca sn phm. 3.2 Kt qu hi quy Trc khi thc hin phn tch hi quy Tobit, chng ti kim nh cc gi thuyt ca m hnh, c bit l hin tng a cng tuyn.1 Nh phn tch, nh hng ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca DN c th phi tuyn tnh theo hm s bc hai c dng . Do , chng ti s kim nh cc mi quan h ny. Bng 2: Kt qu hi quy

Bin ph thuc: INV u t d kin nm 2011 M hnh (1) M hnh (2) M hnh (3)

Hng s 0,148

0,098

0,036

COMP 0,009*** 0,004***0,009*** 0,004***

0,008*** 0,004***

COMP2 0,000*** 0,000***0,000*** 0,000***

0,000*** 0,000***

CEV 3,343*** 1,403***3,411*** 1,428***

3,184*** 1,337***

CEV2 19,498*** 8,183***19,922*** 8,339***

18,561*** 7,795***

PRO 0,075** 0,031**0,068* 0,028*

0,079** 0,033**

PROASS 0,000 0,0000,000 0,000

0,000 0,000

DSAL 0,002*** 0,001***0,002*** 0,001***

0,002*** 0,001***

IRR 0,058*** 0,024***

IRR1 0,081** 0,034**

IRR2 0,003*** 0,001***

BRI 15,343*** 6,440***15,520***

6,497*** 16,098***

6,760***

BRI2 226,837*** 95,203***230,473*** 96,478***

239,793*** 100,701***

VOCA 0,005* 0,002*0,006* 0,002*

0,005* 0,002*

EDU 0,002 0,0010,002 0,001

0,002 0,001

POL 0,093*** 0,038***0,103*** 0,042***

0,097*** 0,039***

RISKATT 0,091** 0,099** 0,095** 1 Kt qu kim nh cho thy, h s tng quan gia cc bin c lp u b hn 0,8. Chng t, cc bin c lp trong m hnh khng b hin tng a cng tuyn. Bn cnh , cc gi thuyt khc ca m hnh c lng cng khng b vi phm nhng do gii hn quy m ca bi vit nn kt qu kim nh khng c trnh by y.


8

0,036** 0,039** 0,038** EXPORT 0,000 0,000

0,001 0,000

0,001 0,000

FIRMSIZE 0,035*** 0,015***0,035*** 0,015***

0,035*** 0,015***

MANU 0,001 0,0000,004 0,002

0,001 0,000

TRADE 0,025 0,0100,022 0,009

0,026 0,011

S quan st 473 473 473 Gi tr 2 112,520 105,590 110,260 Mc ngha m hnh 0,000 0,000 0,000 Gi tr log likelihood 192,815 196,279 193,944 Ghi ch: Gi tr c trnh by dng th 1 ca mi bin s l h s i , dng th 2 l gi tr tc ng bin ca bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc - INV )/( iXINV . ***: mc ngha 1%; **: mc ngha 5%; *: mc ngha 10%. Ngun: S liu t kho st nm 2011

Kt qu c lng cho thy nh hng ca mc cnh tranh v s khng chc chn v th trng u ra n u t ca DN l phi tuyn, c dng . C th, h s tng quan ca bin COMP c gi tr dng 009,01 v h s tng quan ca bin COMP2 c gi tr m 0001,02 cng mc ngha 1%. iu c ngha l u t l hm bc hai ca mc cnh tranh. Da trn kt qu c lng m hnh (1), ly o hm bc nht ca hm u t (INV) theo mc cnh tranh (COMP), ta c:

COMPCOMPCOMPINV 00008,000366,000004,0200366,0

75,45

00008,000366,00

COMPCOMPINV

Kt qu trn cho thy, nu mc cnh tranh nh hn gi tr nht nh )74,45( COMP , s gia tng ca mc cnh tranh s kch thch u t ca DN.

Tuy nhin, nu mc cnh tranh vt qua mc ny, u t ca DN s st gim. Tng t, h s tng quan ca bin CEV c gi tr dng 343,33 v h s tng quan ca bin CEV2 c gi tr m 498,194 cng vi mc ngha 1%. iu chng t rng nh hng ca s khng chc chn v th trng u ra n u t ca DN cng c dng . C th, nu mc khng chc chn thp, s gia tng ca mc khng chc chn s kch thch DN u t nhiu hn. Tuy nhin, nu mc khng chc chn vt qu gi tr 0,086 th DN s gim u t khi mc khng chc chn tip tc gia tng.1 Ngoi ra, h s tng quan ca bin PRO c gi tr dng mc ngha 5%. Kt qu ny cho thy li nhun tch ly ca DN cng nhiu th u t ca DN s cng ln. Nguyn nhn l do hu ht cc DN BSCL u gp kh khn trong vic tip 1 Tng t, ta ly o hm bt nht ca hm INV theo bin CEV:

COMPCOMPCEVINV 366,16403,1183,82403,1/ 086,0366,16/403,10/ CEVCEVINV


9

cn cc ngun vn vay (hay b hn ch tn dng). Bn cnh , h s tng quan ca bin DSAL cng c gi tr dng mc ngha 1%. Khi trin vng kinh doanh ca DN cng tt th DN s u t nhiu hn tn dng ti a cc c hi sinh li. Tng t, qua kt qu c lng cho thy h s tng quan ca bin IRR, IRR1, IRR2 cng c gi tr dng, vi mc ngha 1%,1 ng rng nu d sang nhng ti sn hay gi tr sang nhng ti sn cng cao th DN s u t nhiu hn. Bn cnh , h s tng quan ca hu ht cc bin khc (nh BRI, BRI2, VOCA, POL v RISKATT) u c ngha thng k ng nh k vng, ngoi tr bin EDU, EXPORT, MANU v TRADE.

4 KT LUN V XUT Nh phn tch, mc cnh tranh trn th trng l yu t then cht quyt nh n u t ca DN. Do , mc tiu ca bi vit l c lng nh hng ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca DN BSCL trn c s h thng s liu s cp thu thp ngu nhin t 473 DN BSCL. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy hu ht cc bin trong m hnh c lng u c ngha thng k trong vic gii thch s thay i ca u t. Trong , nh hng ca mc cnh tranh n u t ca DN l hm bc hai c dng . iu ny c ngha l, vi mc cnh tranh thp ban u, s gia tng ca cnh tranh s kch thch u t ca DN. Tuy nhin, nu mc cnh tranh vt qua mt gii hn nht nh )75,45( COMP , DN s gim u t nu mc cnh tranh tip tc gia tng. Do , kch thch DN u t pht trin v thc y tng trng kinh t, Chnh ph cn c gii php iu ha cnh tranh trn th trng mt mc thch hp. Chng hn, nu xut hin hin tng c quyn, Chnh ph cn gim cc ro cn gia nhp ngnh bn cnh cc bin php h tr DN tham gia vo th trng. Tuy nhin, nu mc cnh tranh qu gay gt, Chnh ph li cn iu tit th trng theo hng loi b bt nhng DN hot ng khng hiu qu nhm m bo cho th trng vn hnh mt cch hiu qu nht. Bn cnh , DN thch ng tt hn vi cnh tranh, DN cn nng cao nng lc cnh tranh ca mnh thng qua cc chin lc cnh tranh nh chin lc kim sot chi ph, chin lc tp trung v chin lc khc bit ha. Tng t, s khng chc chn v th trng u ra v chi ph bi trn u c tc ng phi tuyn n u t theo dng . Do , nhm hn ch s khng chc chn m DN phi i mt, DN nn thnh lp b phn chuyn trch (hay thu DN khc) d bo nhu cu th trng kp thi ng ph vi nhng bin ng bt thng cng nh xy dng c chin lc kinh doanh ph hp cho tng thi k. Ngoi ra, DN c th s dng cc cng c bo him ri ro nh hp ng quyn chn thc hay hp ng tng lai gim thiu ri ro trong cc quyt nh u t ca mnh. Bn cnh , hn ch hin tng bi trn, Chnh ph cn cng khai cc chi ph v trnh t gii quyt cc th tc hnh chnh cho DN v c cu li chnh sch tin lng cng nh phn chia quyn lc hp l, trnh tnh trng quyn hn tp trung vo mt vi c nhn no cc cn b, vin chc bin cht kh c th vi 1 Qua kt qu phn tch nhn t cho thy, bin IRR1 v bin IRR2 ph hp vi cc yu cu ca phng php phn tch nhn t. Bin IRR c hnh thnh t phng trnh nhn t nh sau:

2614,01614,0 IRRIRRIRR


10

vnh DN. Bn cnh cc gii php trn, nng cao kh nng tip cn tn dng cho DN cng cn c quan tm nhiu hn DN c ngun vn ti tr cho u t. Mt khc, Chnh ph cn pht trin th trng hng ha qua s dng nhm to iu kin cho vic sang nhng ti sn qua s dng ca DN c d dng hn, thc y DN u t pht trin nhiu hn.

TI LIU THAM KHO Abel, A.B. & Eberly, C.J., (1999), The effects of uncertainty and irreversibility on capital

accumulation, Journal of Monetary Economics 44, pp. 339377. Aghion, P., Bloom, N., Blundell, R., Griffith, R. & Howitt, P., (2005), Competition and

innovation: An inverted-U relationship, Quarterly Journal of Economics 120(2), pp. 701728.

Akdogu, E. & MacKay, P., (2008), Investment and competition, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43(2), pp. 299330.

Andrade, G. & Stafford, E., (2004), Investigating the economic role of mergers, Journal of Corporate Finance 10, pp. 136.

Beck, T. & Demirguc-Kunt, A., (2006), Small and medium size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint, Journal of Banking and Finance 30, pp. 29312943.

Bo, H. & Lensink, R., (2005), Is the investmentuncertainty relationship non-linear? An empirical analysis for the Netherlands, Economica 72(286), pp. 307331.

Boone, J., (2000), Competitive pressure: The effects on investments in product and process innovation, Rand Journal of Economics 31(3), pp. 549569.

Boone, J., (2001), Intensity of competition and the incentive to innovate, International Journal of Industrial Organization 19, pp. 705726.

Boone, J., (2008), A new way to measure competition, The Economic Journal 118, pp. 1245 1261.

Boone, J. & van Leuvensteijn, M. (2010), Measuring competition using the profit elasticity: American sugar industry 1890-1914, Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, Discussion Paper 124.

Blejer, M. & Khan, M. S., (1984), Government policy and private investment in developing countries, Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund. 31(2), pp. 379403.

Braga, H. & Willmore, L., (1991), Technological imports and technological effort: an analysis of their determinants in Brazilian firms, The Journal of Industrial Economics 39(4), pp. 421432.

Guiso, L. & Parigi, G., (1999), Investment and demand uncertainty, Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, pp. 185227.

Le Khuong Ninh, Hermes, N. & Lanjouw, G., (2004), Investment, uncertainty and irreversibility: An empirical study of rice mills in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam, Economics of Transition 12 (2), pp 307332.

L Khng Ninh, (2008), Chi ph bi trn v quyt nh u t ca doanh nghip ngoi quc doanh BSCL, Tp ch Nghin cu Kinh t 3-2008, tr. 6876.

Lensink, R., Van Steen, P. & Sterken, E., (2005), Uncertainty and growth of the firm, Small Business Economics 24(4), pp. 381391.

Moretto, M., (2008), Competition and irreversible investments under uncertainty, Information Economics and Policy 20(2008), pp. 7588.

Nickell, S.J., (1996), Competition and corporate performance, Journal of Political Economy 104(4), pp. 724746.

Nielsen, M.J., (2002), Competition and irreversible investments, International Journal of Industrial Organization 20(2002), pp. 731743.


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Pindyck, R.S., (1993), A note on competitive investment under uncertainty, The American Economic Review 83(1), pp. 273277.

Polder, M & Veldhuizen, E., (2012), Innovation and competition in the Netherlands: Testing the inverted-U for industries and firms, Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade 12(1), pp 6791.

Romer, P.M., (1990), Endogenous technological change, Journal of Political Economy 98(5), pp. 71102.

Svensson, J., (2005), Eight questions about corruption, Journal of Economic Perspectives 19(3), pp.19 42.


12

PHN TCH CC YU T NH HNG N THU HT U T CA DOANH NGHIP VO KHU CNG NGHIP

TI THNH PH CN TH Nguyn Th Ninh Thun1 v Bi Vn Trnh2

ABSTRACT

This paper aims at analyzing the situation of investment environment served to firms which have invested in Can Tho Industrial Zone (CTIZ), and determining factors of attracting investment by firms, and suggesting solutions to absorb the investment resource into the CTIZ. The results indicates that the determinants of investment attraction by firms operated in the CTIZ-into the CTIZ are significantly associated with the place the industrial zone located, input resources, and investment policy. In regards of firms operating outside of the CTIZ, some factors such as low costs of waste, more convinient location of business, and place rents at low cost are most important. Title: Analysis of determinants of investment attraction by firms into Can Tho

Industrial Zone Keyword: Industrial zone, firm, investment

TM TT Bi vit nhm nh gi v thc trng mi trng u t kinh doanh ca doanh nghip (DN) vo cc Khu cng nghip (KCN) Cn Th; tm hiu cc yu t nh hng n thu ht u t ca DN vo KCN v xut cc gii php thu ht u t vo KCN Cn Th trong thi gian ti. Kt qu nghin cu tm ra c cc yu t nh hng n thu ht u t i vi DN trong KCN gm V tr, a im thnh lp KCN thun li cho sn xut kinh doanh (SXKD), Ngun nguyn liu n nh cho sn xut v Chnh sch thu ht u t; i vi DN ngoi KCN gm Chi ph x l nc thi trong KCN cao, V tr hin ti thun li cho SXKD hn trong KCN v Thu/mua mt bng ngoi KCN c li hn. T kha: Khu cng nghip, doanh nghip, u t

1 T VN n nay, hu ht cc c s sn xut cng nghip TP. Cn Th cn nh, chi ph trung gian ln, kh nng cnh tranh ca sn phm cha cao. Bn cnh , cc KCN cha xy dng hon chnh h thng x l cht thi tp trung, ch u t cha thc hin y trch nhim bo v mi trng. Nhng vn nu trn t ra p lc rt ln i vi yu cu xy dng v pht trin cc KCN ca Cn Th. V vy, chng ti thc hin nghin cu Phn tch cc yu t nh hng n thu ht u t ca DN vo cc KCN ti thnh ph Cn Th. Nghin cu ny nhm t c 3 mc tiu: - nh gi tng quan tnh hnh hot ng u t v thc trng mi trng hot

ng u t kinh doanh ca cc Doanh nghip vo Khu cng nghip; 1 S Cng thng TP. Cn Th. 2 Tin s, Nh xut bn i hc Cn Th.


13

- Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n thu ht Doanh nghp t vo khu cng nghip;

- xut mt s gii php thu ht Doanh nghip trong v ngoi nc u t vo Khu cng nghip.

2 PHNG PHP NGHIN CU 2.1 Phng php thu thp thng tin - Thng tin th cp s dng trong nghin cu ny chng ti thu tp t cc c

quan qun l Nh nc c lin quan nh: s K hoch u t TP. Cn Th v Nim gim Thng k;

- Thng tin s cp trong nghin cu ny chng ti phng vn tc tip t 47 Doanh nghip ang hot ng trong Khu cng nghip v 49 Doanh nghip (DN) hot ng ngoi Khu cng nghip (KCN).

2.2 Phng php phn tch s liu - i vi mc tiu (1): Dng phng php thng k m t phn tch thc

trng kh nng hot ng u t kinh doanh ca DN trong KCN Cn Th. - i vi mc tiu (2): Dng phng php phn tch nhn t tm ra nhng

nhn t nh hng n thu ht u t ca DN vo cc KCN. - i vi mc tiu (3): Din dch kt qu ca mc tiu (1) v (2) lm cn c

xut mt s gii php ch yu thu ht DN u t vo KCN Cn Th trong thi gian ti.

3 KT QU NGHIN CU V THO LUN 3.1 Thc trng hot ng u t kinh doanh ca doanh nghip KCN Nhng nm qua, gi tr sn xut cng nghip (SXCN) ca cc KCN tng dn v chim t trng trn 40% gi tr SXCN ton TP. Cn Th. Doanh thu ca cc DN tng cao qua cc nm u ca giai on 2005 2009 v gim mnh nm 2009, do nh hng ca khng hong kinh t ton cu; tng doanh thu nm 2010 t 1,83 t USD tng 31,7% so nm 2009. Tnh hnh np ngn sch tng u qua cc nm, nm 2010 thc hin 2.343 t ng tng 11,57% so nm 2009. Cc KCN gii quyt vic lm cho hn 34 ngn lao ng. Qua s liu iu tra cho thy, ngi iu hnh DN trong KCN c trnh chuyn mn cao, 80,85% trnh cao ng, i hc, 12,77% trnh sau i hc, c t 6 10 nm kinh nghim. Mi trng u t kinh doanh ca cc DN trn a bn vn cn tn ti mt s kh khn, hn ch sau: - Chnh sch thu ht u t vo cc KCN cha to c sc hp dn nh u t;

th tc cp php cho nhng d n mi cn mt nhiu thi gian. - H tng KCN vi c im a cht nn t yu, chi ph u t h tng cao so

vi cc vng trong c nc, vic xy dng kh tn km; chi ph bi hon, san lp mt bng cao dn n gi cho thu li t cao; Cn thiu t sch cho cc nh u t thc hin d n, mt s trng hp c t sch nhng gi cho thu rt cao.


14

- Quy hoch KCN Hng Ph 1, 2A, 2B khng gn vi xy dng khu ti nh c. Mt khc, do thay i ch u t, cng vi chnh sch bi hon h tr, ti nh c, gi t, vt kin trc thay i nh hng rt ln n tin xy dng h tng.

- Cc KCN cha xy dng c h thng x l nc thi tp trung; vn cn nhiu DN cha xy dng h thng x l nc thi hoc c nhng hot ng khng thng xuyn, hoc cha t yu cu; Cc KCN c tnh cht a ngnh ngh cng chung a bn, cha phn khu chc nng hp l cho tng nhm ngnh hot ng; Quy hoch cc KCN cha gn vi quy hoch vng nguyn liu.

- Lc lng lao ng ph thng tuy ng, nhng a s cha c tay ngh, DN phi o to cho ph hp vi yu cu cng vic; cha c trng, trung tm o to ngh ring cho cc KCN.

3.2 Phn tch cc yu t nh hng n thu ht u t ca DN vo KCN 3.2.1 i vi doanh nghip trong KCN o lng mc quan trng ca cc yu t nh hng n thu ht cc DN vo KCN, chng ti s dng m hnh phn tch nhn t v quy c bin t V1 n V6. Ma trn tng quan gia cc bin (bng 1). xc nh cc bin c tng quan nh th no, ta s dng kim nh Bartlett kim nh gi thuyt:

H0: Cc bin khng c tng quan; H1: C tng quan gia cc bin.

Kt kim nh Bartlett c tr s ca KMO = 0,632, v vy gi thuyt H0 b bc b, phn tch nhn t l ph hp. Bng 1: Ma trn tng quan gia cc bin V1-V6

Bin V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V1 - CS u i 1,000 0,059 0,532 0,474 0,133 0,096 V2 V tr t ai 0,059 1,000 -0,096 -0,096 0,542 0,362 V3 C s h tng 0,532 -0,096 1,000 0,423 -0,017 -0,004 V4 in nc, x l nc thi 0,474 -0,096 0,423 1,000 -0,149 -0,127 V5 Nguyn liu 0,133 0,542 -0,017 -0,149 1,000 0,313 V6 Lao ng 0,096 0,362 -0,004 -0,127 0,313 1,000 Ngun: Kt qu x l bng phn mm SPSS t s liu iu tra nm 2010

Theo tiu chun eigenvalue ln hn 1 th ch c hai nhn t c rt ra, vi phn trm bin thin (cumulative %) l 63,8%. Nhn t 1 c mi tng quan cao vi ch 3 bin, V1 (Chnh sch u i u t vo KCN), V3 (C s h tng k thut KCN), V4 (c cung cp in, nc sn xut, vin thng v x l nc thi tp trung ti chn hng ro doanh nghip) v c th t tn l Chnh sch thu ht v iu kin c s vt cht KCN. Nhn t 2 lin quan cht ch ln lt vi V2 (V tr, a im thnh lp KCN thun li cho SXKD), V5 (Nguyn liu u vo n nh), V6 (Lc lng lao ng di do, gi nhn cng hp dn cng vi chnh sch h tr o to lao ng) v c th t tn l V tr v cc yu t u vo ca KCN.

{


15

C th c lng im nhn t ca nhn t F1, F2 nh sau: F1 = 0,433V1 + 0,414V3 + 0,390V4,

F2 = 0,438V2 + 0,435V5 + 0,364V6 Bng 2: Ma trn h s nhn t (V1 V6)

Nhn t

1 2 V1 Chnh u i 0,433 0,113V2 V tr t ai -0,015 0,438V3 H tng k thut 0,414 -0,005V4 in, nc v x l cht thi 0,390 -o,090V5 Nguyn liu 0,015 0,435V6 Lao ng 0,011 0,364

Ngun: Kt qu x l bng phn mm SPSS t s liu iu tra nm 2010 Nhn t F1 c h s im l 0,433 (Chnh sch u i u t vo KCN) nh hng ln nht; nhn t F2 c h s im l 0,438 (V tr, a im thnh lp KCN thun li cho SXKD) nh hng ln nht. Kt qu phn tch cho thy, u t ca DN vo KCN chu nh hng nhiu yu t, gm nhng yu t quan st c v nhng yu t cha quan st c. Yu t nh hng n thu ht u t ca DN vo KCN gm hai nhn t Chnh sch thu ht v iu kin c s vt cht KCN v V tr v cc yu t u vo ca KCN. Trong , V tr, a im thnh lp KCN thun li cho SXKD l nhn t quyt nh cao nht, th hai l Ngun nguyn liu n nh cho sn xut v k n l Chnh sch thu ht u t. 3.2.2 i vi doanh nghip ngoi KCN Tng t nh trn, chng ti s dng m hnh phn tch nhn t v quy c bin t N1 n N6 o lng mc quan trng ca cc yu t nh hng n u t ca cc DN ngoi KCN (khng u t vo KCN). Bng 3: Ma trn tng quan gia cc bin N1 N6

Bin N1 N2 N3 N4 N5 N6 N1 V tr hin ti 1,000 ,059 ,110 ,016 ,523 ,017 N2 - Thu/mua MB ngoi li hn ,059 1,000 ,565 -,179 ,089 ,116 N3 - CS u i t hp dn ,110 ,565 1,000 ,006 ,223 ,137 N4 - CP x l nc thi KCN cao ,016 -,179 ,006 1,000 ,089 ,271 N5 Nguyn liu t n nh ,523 ,089 ,223 ,089 1,000 ,173 N6 Quy m DN ,017 ,116 ,137 ,271 ,173 1,000

Ngun: Kt qu x l bng phn mm SPSS t s liu iu tra nm 2010 Kt qu kim nh Bartlett c tr s ca KMO = 0,508, v vy phn tch nhn t l ph hp. Theo tiu chun eigenvalue ln hn 1, c ba nhn t c rt ra, vi phn trm bin thin l 74,2%. Nhn t 1 c mi tng quan cao vi ch 2 bin, N2 (Thu/mua mt bng ngoi KCN c li hn), N3 (Chnh sch u i u t vo KCN t hp dn) v c th t tn l u i v gi t t hp dn. Nhn t 2 lin quan cht ch ln lt vi N1 (V tr hin ti thun li cho SXKD hn trong


16

KCN), N5 (Nguyn liu u vo trong KCN t n nh) v c th t tn l V tr SXKD. Nhn t 3 lin quan cht ch ln lt vi N4 (Chi ph x l nc thi trong KCN cao), N6 (Quy m ca DN) v c th t tn l Kh nng ti chnh ca DN. C th c lng im nhn t ca nhn t F1, F2 v F3 nh sau:

F1 = 0,564N2 + 0,518N3, F2 = 0,605N1 + 0,549N5, F3 = 0,625N4 + 0,600N6 Bng 4: Ma trn h s nhn t (N1 - N6)

Nhn t

1 2 3 N1 V tr hin ti -0,081 0,605 -0,122 N2 Thu/mua MB ngoi c li hn 0,564 -0,079 -0,076 N3 - CS u i t hp dn 0,518 0,004 0,062 N4 - CP x l nc thi KCN cao -0,143 -0,011 0,625 N5 Nguyn liu t n nh -0,001 0,549 0,059 N6 Quy m DN 0,133 -0,059 0,600 Ngun: Kt qu x l bng phn mm SPSS t s liu iu tra nm 2010

Nhn t F1 c h s im 0,564 (Thu/mua mt bng ngoi KCN c li hn) nh hng ln nht n nhn t chung; nhn t F2 c h s im l 0,605 (V tr hin ti thun li cho SXKD hn trong KCN) nh hng ln nht; nhn t F3 c h s im l 0,625 (Chi ph x l nc thi trong KCN cao) nh hng ln nht. Kt qu phn tch, u t ca DN ngoi KCN chu nh hng nhiu yu t, gm nhng yu t quan st c v cha quan st c. Yu t nh hng n u t ca DN ngoi KCN gm ba nhn t u i v gi t t hp dn, V tr SXKD v Kh nng ti chnh ca DN. Trong , Chi ph x l nc thi trong KCN cao l nhn t quyt nh nht, th hai l V tr hin ti thun li cho SXKD hn trong KCN v k n l Thu/mua mt bng ngoi KCN c li hn. 3.3 Mt s gii php thu ht u t vo KCN Cn Th 3.3.1 Nhm gii php ci thin mi trng u t kinh doanh Tip tc r sot, xem xt gim bt th tc hnh chnh, rt ngn thi gian ng k u t, to s hp dn, thu ht u t. Thnh ph cn ban hnh cc quy nh ring v u i u t, ph hp chnh sch u i khuyn khch u t ca Chnh ph v thi gian min gim tin s dng t, tin thu t th; c chnh sch h tr u t xy dng c s h tng KCN, gi cho thu li t thp hn; cn c chnh sch gii to n b tho ng xy dng c s h tng nhanh, ch ng to ra qu t sch. 3.3.2 Gii php v cng tc quy hoch KCN Quy hoch KCN phi gn vi xy dng khu ti nh c, gn vi quy hoch vng nguyn liu sn xut, ch bin; Quy hoch KCN cn quan tm din tch cy xanh m bo yu t cn bng vi kh hu, p ng theo quy chun xy dng; cn nghin cu quy hoch KCN theo m hnh KCN sinh thi, hay cn gi l KCN xanh; cn tin hnh r sot, b sung quy hoch cc KCN hin hu p ng cc nhu cu ca nh u t trong v ngoi nc.


17

3.3.3 Gii php pht trin ngun nguyn liu u vo cho cc KCN DN hot ng ch bin cn gn kt vi mt vng nguyn liu n nh u ra cho nng dn v u vo cho DN. DN cn u t kho bo qun, d tr nguyn liu ch ng ngun nguyn liu ch bin. Cn hng dn nng dn chn ging, p dng tin b k thut trong thm canh, chm sc cy trng, vt nui; k thut thu hoch, bo qun v vn chuyn sau thu hoch to ngun nguyn liu sch cho cng nghip ch bin. Pht trin u t kinh doanh dch v cung ng nguyn, ph liu t tiu chun cht lng cho cc KCN mt cch n nh. 3.3.4 Nhm gii php n nh v pht trin ngun nhn lc cho KCN o to cung ng ngun nhn lc: Nng cao cht lng v s lng o to i i vi lin kt, thu ht i ng ging vin c chuyn mn cao, gio vin trc tip ging dy phi gii c khu thc hnh trn my mc thit b; C chnh sch u i thu ht lao ng, gio vin dy ngh vo lm vic ti cc trung tm o to trong cc KCN; Nng cp thit b dy hc, thit b thc tp, phng th nghim, xng trng theo hng cp nht trnh hin i ca th gii, hc i i vi thc hnh cng nhn ra trng c tay ngh vng vng. Nghin cu thnh lp cc Trng, Trung tm dy ngh ring cho cc KCN. n nh ch cho ngi lao ng: Vic xy dng nh cho cng nhn cn c s phi hp gia Ban qun l KCX v CN, cng ty kinh doanh h tng v cc DN trong KCN, DN phi tham gia mt t l vn nht nh v cn c s can thip ca UBND thnh ph, s phi hp gia cc ngnh, cc cp; cn c chnh sch u i khuyn khch u t nh cho cng nhn KCN thu vi gi thp. 3.3.5 Bo v mi trng Sm hon thnh cng trnh h thng thu gom x l nc thi tp trung trong KCN, ng thi, xy dng h thng thot nc ma; Phn khu chc nng hp l trong KCN theo tng nhm lnh vc, ngnh ngh m bo tnh ti u v mt tng tc ln nhau cng nh gim thiu tc ng xu n mi trng xung quanh. DN c gng u t i mi cng ngh sn xut nhng cng on gy nhim (ting n, bi, khi, ho cht, nc thi,...); x l cht thi phi t tiu chun cho php trc khi thi ra mi trng; y mnh thc hin chng trnh di di cc c s cng nghip nm an xen trong khu dn c vo cc KCN. Trong vic ku gi u t nn c s sng lc, u tin nhng nh u t c uy tn, c nng lc, c bit l c quy trnh cng ngh hin i sn xut sch hn, va nng cao cht lng sn phm va gim thiu cc cht c hi thi ra mi trng. 3.3.6 Tng cng u t xy dng kt cu h tng KCN Tp trung ngun lc, khn trng xy dng v hon thnh c s h tng KCN Hng Ph 1, Hng Ph 2A, Hng Ph 2B theo qui hoch v nhanh chng hon thnh cc quy hoch chi tit cc KCN Tht Nt phn k 2, KCN Mn v KCN Bc Mn. 3.3.7 Tng cng thu ht vn u t nc ngoi Xy dng danh mc ngnh ngh cn thu ht u t vo KCN, theo hng thu ht u t c chn lc cc ngnh ngh v d n u t ln vi cng ngh tin tin; c


18

chnh sch u i c bit nh min gim thu, la chn a im xy dng thch hp i vi u t nc ngoi c cng ngh cao; cng tc xc tin u t cn c mc tiu, a ch c th, nht l cc quc gia c tim nng v vn u t v cng ngh.

4 KT LUN Thu ht u t vo cc KCN nhng nm qua t c kt qu kh tt. Tuy nhin, vn cn tn ti mt s kh khn, hn ch: Thu ht u t vo KCN cha nhiu, d n c vn u t nc ngoi t, quy m nh cha tng xng vi tim nng ca thnh ph; i ng cng nhn cha c tay ngh cao, kh nng thu lao ng cc KCN l khng d dng; cha c cc khu nh cho cng nhn; cc KCN cha c h thng x l nc thi tp trung; cng tc bo v mi trng ngoi KCN cha c quan tm ng mc; thc bo v mi trng ca cc DN cha cao, nht l cc DN ngoi KCN; c s h tng k thut cha pht trin ng b, gii to n b chm, nh hng cng tc thu ht u t; nguyn liu u vo cha n nh. Kt qu nghin cu tm ra c nhng nhn t nh hng n u t ca cc DN trong KCN l vic la chn v tr, a im xy dng cc KCN l yu t quyt nh nht, k n ngun nguyn liu n nh cho sn xut v chnh sch thu ht u t. i vi DN ngoi KCN, cc yu t nh hng ln n quyt nh khng u t vo KCN gm chi ph x l nc thi trong KCN cao, v tr hin ti thun li cho SXKD hn trong KCN v thu/mua mt bng ngoi KCN c li hn.

TI LIU THAM KHO 1. Ban qun l cc KCX v CN Cn Th (2005 2010), Bo co tnh hnh hot ng KCX v

KCN; 2. Cc Thng k thnh ph Cn Th (2008 2009), Nin gim Thng k thnh ph Cn Th; 3. Phan Tun Giang (2010), nh hng chnh pht trin Khu Cng nghip, trang thng

tin Khu Cng nghip Vit Nam; 4. Trn Thanh Mn (2009), Pht trin Cng nghip ca thnh ph Cn Th n nm 2020; 5. Phan Tin Ngc (2006), Vai tr ca KCN, KCX vi pht trin kinh t Vit Nam, Tp ch

Nghin cu Kinh t s 341.


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NGHIN CU TC NG CA KHU CNG NGHIP N S THAY I THU NHP CA CNG NG B THU HI

T: TRNG HP KHU CNG NGHIP HO PH TNH VNH LONG

Nguyn Quc Nghi1, Nguyn Th Bo Chu1, Nguyn inh Yn Oanh1, Nguyn Th Thanh Hu2 v Trng Toi Nguyn3 ABSTRACT

This research was conducted to assess the impact of industrial zones to the change in income of the community in area of land acquisition. Research data were collected from 84 households that had the land acquisition for the construction of Hoa Phu industrial zone, Vinh Long province. The descriptive statistics method and the binary logistic regression analysis were used in the study. Research results show that there is a considerable change on the livelihoods of community after land acquisition, community income does not have much change after the land acquisition, the factors that affect changes in income of households in area of land acquisition are the education level of the head of households, quantity of workers in the households, the proportion of dependents, the plan to use the compensation, the participation to work in industrial zones. The research also suggests several recommendations to stabilize livelihoods, increase the income for community in land acquisition area. Keywords: Income, jobs, community, land acquisition, industrial zones Title: Research on the effects of industrial zones towards the change in community

income in area of land acquisition: the case of Hoa Phu industrial zone, Vinh long province

TM TT Nghin cu ny c thc hin nhm nh gi tc ng ca khu cng nghip (KCN) n s thay i thu nhp ca cng ng b thu hi t. S liu ca nghin cu c thu thp t 84 h gia nh b thu hi t phc v xy dng KCN Ho Ph, tnh Vnh Long. Cc phng php thng k m t, phn tch hi qui binary logistic c s dng trong nghin cu. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy, c s thay i ng k v sinh k ca cng ng sau khi b thu hi t, thu nhp ca cng ng khng c s thay i nhiu sau khi b thu hi t. Cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i thu nhp ca h dn b thu hi t l trnh hc vn ca ch h, s lao ng trong h, t l ngi ph thuc, din tch t b thu hi, phng n s dng tin n b, tham gia lm vic ti KCN. Nghin cu cn xut mt s khuyn ngh nhm n nh sinh k, nng cao thu nhp cho cng ng dn c b thu hi t. T kho: Thu nhp, vic lm, cng ng dn c, thu hi t, khu cng nghip

1 T VN Theo i hi ng ln th VI (1986), ng v nh nc ta ch trng xy dng nn kinh t th trng theo nh hng XHCN, trong ch trng pht trin 1 Khoa Kinh t - QTKD, Trng i hc Cn Th 2 Sinh vin Lp QTKD Thng mi Kha 36, Khoa Kinh t - QTKD 3 Hc vin Cao hc KTNN Kha 18, Khoa Kinh t - QTKD


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cng nghip. Hin nay, trn a bn c nc c khong trn 200 khu cng nghip (KCN) cc loi, gn 300 cc cm cng nghip v hng nghn cc khu th tp trung. Cc KCN thu ht trn mt triu lao ng trc tip, gp phn rt ln vo s pht trin chung ca t nc. Tuy nhin, bn cnh nhng thnh tu t c ca vic i mi kinh t t nc, cc chnh sch, php lut v t ai hin vn cn nhng bt cp cha c gii quyt kp thi. Qu trnh cng nghip ho, th ho ngy cng din ra mnh m lm nh hng su sc n i sng kinh t v vn ho ca ngi dn, lm bin i c v chiu su ca x hi nng thn truyn thng. Theo s liu ca B Nng nghip v Pht trin nng thn, bnh qun mi nm c 73 nghn ha t nng nghip c thu hi tc ng n i sng khong 2,5 triu ngi v trung bnh c 1 ha t b thu hi, c 10 ngi b mt vic. S thay i i sng, thu nhp ca ngi nng dn sau khi b thu hi t l mt vn mang tnh thi s, cp bch. minh chng cho s tc ng ca vic hnh thnh KCN n sinh k ca cng ng dn c b thu hi t, nhm tc gi chn KCN Ho Ph mt KCN in hnh ca tnh Vnh Long ni ring v BSCL ni chung nghin cu tc ng ca KCN n s thay i thu nhp ca cng ng b thu hi t. Kt qu nghin cu l bc tranh chi tit m t thc vic thu hi t nh hng n i sng v vic lm ca cng ng b thu hi t, ng thi nhm tc gi cng xut mt s khuyn ngh gp phn n nh i sng, nng cao thu nhp cho cng ng dn c b thu hi t.

2 C S L THUYT V M HNH NGHIN CU 2.1 C s l thuyt Theo Lut t ai (2003), thu hi t l vic Nh nc ra quyt nh hnh chnh thu li quyn s dng t hoc thu li t giao cho t chc, U ban Nhn dn x, phng, th trn qun l. S thu hi t v di chuyn ch ca ngi dn c th gy ra s thiu thn nghim trng v nhng tn hi v kinh t - x hi, mi trng nu khng c mt k hoch cn thn. Theo Ngn hng Pht trin chu (ADB), trnh hoc ti thiu ho nhng tn tht khi thc hin d n th vic thu hi t v ti nh c l khng th trnh khi, nhng k hoch ny nn c ln k hoch v thc hin nh mt d n pht trin. ADB ch ra rng nhng ngi nh hng nn c h tr h ci thin mc sng, hoc t nht l khi phc cuc sng ca h, bng cuc sng c, hoc cao hn trc khi h b thu hi t v di chuyn (ADB, 1995). Theo Ngn hng th gii (WB, 2004), phc hi thu nhp l mt phn quan trng ca chnh sch thu hi t khi nhng ngi b nh hng mt i c s sn xut, kinh doanh, vic lm hoc cc ngun thu nhp khc. Cc phng n to thu nhp bao gm: (i) Tn dng trc tip i vi kinh doanh nh v t lm; (ii) Xy dng cc k thut thng qua o to; (iii) H tr trong vic tm kim cc c hi trong doanh nghip nh nc v t nhn v (iv) u tin i vi nhng ngi b nh hng trong vic tuyn chn lao ng lin quan n d n hot ng. Hiu theo ngha rng hn, khng phi ch l thu nhp m cn c sinh k bn vng cho nhng i tng b tn thng do thu hi t. Mt sinh k bn vng khi n c kh nng ng ph v phc hi nu b tc ng hay c th thc y cc kh nng v ti sn c thi im hin ti v trong tng lai trong khi khng lm xi mn nn tng ngun lc t nhin (Tim Hanstad, Robin Nielsn v Jennifer Brown, 2004).


21

Theo Park S.S (1992), nng sut lao ng l iu kin thay i thu nhp. Cc yu t tc ng n nng sut lao ng cng chnh l tc ng n thu nhp. Lewis (1995), Oshima (1995), Randy Barker (2002) cho rng cc yu t nh hng n nng sut lao ng nng nghip bao gm trnh kin thc nng nghip v mc a dng ho hot ng to thu nhp (inh Phi H, 2008). Thng qua lc kho mt s nghin cu ca cc tc gi Mehdi Yadollahi v ctv (2009), Mai Vn Nam (2009), Hunh Trng Huy v ng Th Vinh (2009), Nguyn Quc Nghi (2011), inh Phi H (2011), V nh Tuyt (2007), nhm nghin cu nhn nh mt s nhn t nh hng n thu nhp ca h gia nh bao gm: s nhn khu, kinh nghim lm vic, trnh hc vn ca ch h, s hot ng to thu nhp v tui ca lao ng. inh Phi H v Hunh Sn V (2011) da trn kt qu ca vic phn tch khung sinh k bn vng a ra nhn nh rng cc yu t nh hng n thu nhp ca ngi dn b thu hi t gm c: trnh hc vn ca ch h, tui ca ch h, t l ph thuc, quy m lao ng, din tch t b thu hi, mc ch s dng s tin n b, lao ng lm vic trong KCN. Trn c s k tha cc nghin cu lin quan kt hp vi kho st thc a, nhm nghin cu xut m hnh xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i thu nhp ca h dn b thu hi t nh sau:

ln [ )0()1(

YPYP ] = Bo + B1X1 + B2X2 + B3X3 + B4X4 + B5X5 + B6D6 + B7D7

Trong : Y l bin thu nhp ca h dn b thu hi t (thu nhp trung bnh ca h/thng), nhn gi tr 1 nu thu nhp tng v nhn gi tr 0 nu thu nhp khng tng. Cc bin X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, D6, D7 l cc bin c lp (bin gii thch).

Tn bin K hiu Din gii K vngTrnh hc vn ca ch h X1

S nm i hc ca ch h tnh n thi im nghin cu (nm) +

Tui ca ch h X2 S nm sinh sng ca ch h tnh n thi im nghin cu (nm) + T l ngi ph thuc ca h X3

T l gia s ngi ngoi tui lao ng trn tng s lao ng trong gia nh (%) -

Quy m lao ng X4 S lao ng trong gia nh (ngi) + Din tch t b thu hi X5 Tng din tch t ca h b thu hi (m

2) -

Phng n s dng tin b D6

Bin gi. Nhn gi tr 1 nu h s dng tin n b vo u t sn xut kinh doanh v gi tr 0 nu ngc li

+

Tham gia lm vic ti KCN D7

Bin gi. Nhn gi tr 1 nu h c lao ng tham gia lm vic ti KCN v gi tr 0 nu ngc li

+

2.2 Phng php thu thp s liu Nhm nghin cu s dng phng php phn tng kt hp ngu nhin thu thp s liu s cp. C mu c chn l 84 h dn b thu hi t phc v xy dng KCN, chim 17,68% tng s h dn b thu hi t x Ha Ph v th s liu ca nghin cu mang tnh i din cho tng th. S mu c th c chia thnh hai


22

nhm (Nhm 1- nhm h b thu hi t xy dng KCN Ho Ph t I; Nhm 2 - nhm h b thu hi t xy dng KCN Ho Ph t II) theo t l h mt t so vi tng s h trong x Ho Ph (do s h b thu hi t nm hu ht trong x Ho Ph). Thi gian tin hnh iu tra thu thp s liu s cp t thng 09/2011 n thng 10/2011. Bng 1: M t c mu nghin cu theo thi gian thu hi t

Ch tiu S h b thu hi t (h) S h iu tra (h) T l (%) S h mt t I 259 48 18,53 S h mt t II 216 36 16,67 Ngun: S liu iu tra ca nhm nghin cu, nm 2011

3 KT QU NGHIN CU V THO LUN 3.1 c im cc h iu tra Kt qu nghin cu cho thy, nam gii chim phn ln trong s ch h ca cc h dn b thu hi t x Ho Ph (66,67% nhm I v 75% nhm II). Xt v trnh hc vn, a phn trnh ca h l khong lp 7, s lng h c trnh t cp III tr ln rt thp i vi nhm I v khng c h no thuc nhm II t trnh ny. Bnh qun mi h c t 3 n 4 lao ng nhng s nhn khu thc t thng cao hn. Bng 2: c im cc nhm h c kho st

Ch tiu

n v

Nhm I Nhm II

S lng C cu (%) S lng C cu

(%) 1. Gii tnh ca ch h - Ch h l n ngi 16 33,33 9 25 - Ch h l nam ngi 32 66,67 27 75 2. Tui ca ch h tui 55,37 - 49,89 - 3. Trnh hc vn - M ch ngi 2 4,16 0 0 - Cp I ngi 11 22,93 14 38,84 - Cp II ngi 27 56,25 19 52,83 - Cp III ngi 6 12,50 3 8,33 - Trn cp III ngi 2 4,16 0 0 - Bnh qun lp 6,94 - 6,75 - 4. S lao ng ngi 194 - 107 - - Khu/h khu/h 5,68 - 4,83 - - Lao ng/h L/h 4,04 - 2,93 - Ngun: S liu iu tra ca nhm nghin cu, nm 2011

3.2 Phng n s dng tin b ca cc h iu tra Theo kt qu kho st, s tin n b bnh qun mi h nhm I c nhn l 160,65 triu ng, nhm II l 200,15 triu ng. Kt qu nghin cu cng cho thy vic s dng tin n b ca h dn kh a dng vi nhiu hnh thc nh u t lm ngh (ch yu l kinh doanh nh tr), gi tit kim, chi xy - sa cha nh, Trong , vic chi u t lm ngh chim t trng cao nht trong vic s dng tin n b i vi c hai nhm (nhm I chim 23,98%, nhm II l 30,54%).


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Vic gi tin tit kim cng ph bin vi 20,23% h thuc nhm I v 13,57% h thuc nhm II chn hnh thc ny. Tuy nhin, mt s khon chi c nhiu s khc bit gia hai nhm. Vn chi cho hc tp c u t nhiu hn bi nhm II (16,19%) trong khi t l ny nhm I ch l 5,25%. Trong khi , cc khon chi chia cho h hng gia hai nhm cng chnh lch kh ln, nhm I khon ny chim 10,49% nhng nhm II ch chim 1,39%. Bng 3: C cu s dng tin n b ca cc nhm h c kho st

Ch tiu

Nhm I Nhm II S tin (triu ng) C cu (%) S tin (triu ng) C cu (%)

Gi tit kim 1560,00 20,23 978,00 13,57Chi cho xy/sa nh 741,50 9,62 774,40 10,75Mua xe my 373,00 4,84 196,50 2,73Chi cho hc tp 404,94 5,25 1166,80 16,19Mua sm dng 545,26 7,07 552,10 7,66u t cho chn nui 61,00 0,79 10,00 0,14u t trng trt 148,00 1,92 190,00 2,64u t lm ngh 1849,26 23,98 2200,80 30,54Cha bnh 80,50 1,04 25,00 0,35Hc ngh 91,00 1,18 256,00 3,55Mua t 435,50 5,65 375,00 5,20Tr n 410,00 5,32 201,00 2,79Cho vay 177,00 2,30 120,00 1,67Chia cho b con 809,00 10,49 100,00 1,39Khc 25,00 0,32 60,00 0,83Ngun: S liu iu tra ca nhm nghin cu, nm 2011

3.3 Chuyn dch ngun thu nhp ca h trc v sau khi thu hi t Trong nm 2011, bnh qun thu nhp ca mi h khong 9 triu ng. Trong , kinh doanh thng mi dch v nh kinh doanh nh tr, bun bn quanh KCN Ho Ph l ngun thu ch yu (chim 50,99% trong tng thu nhm I v 37,92% nhm II). Cc ngun thu t lm vic cho c quan nh nc nhm I v II ln lt l 13,82% v 18,8% (khong t 1,23 n 1,7 triu ng/thng). Thu nhp t hot ng ngnh ngh tiu th cng nghip gm cc ngnh: Mc, thu ren, an lt, (12,02% nhm I v 15,18% nhm II). ng ch hn c, t trng ng gp t nng nghip trong tng thu nhp ca h chim t l rt thp dao ng t 5,06% n 7,26% trong tng thu nhp ca cc h sau khi b thu hi t xy KCN. Nguyn nhn c th gii thch l t nng nghip b thu hi ngi dn nn khng cn nhiu t liu sn xut. ng thi, KCN mc ln to iu kin cho ngi dn chuyn i sang cc ngnh khc c thu nhp cao hn.


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Bng 4: Chuyn dch ngun thu nhp ca h trc v sau khi thu hi t

Ch tiu

Trc khi thu hi t Hin ti So snh Trc khi iu chnh lm pht

Sau khi iu chnh lm pht

Nhm

I (5)

Nhm

II (6)

(5)-(1)

(5)-(3)

(6)-(2)

(6)-(4) Nhm

I (1)

Nhm II (2)

Nhm I

(3)

Nhm II (4)

Nng nghip 1,98 0,65 3,97 0,72 0,45 0,67 -

1,54 -3,52 0,02 -0,05 Cn b cng chc 0,41 1,19 0,82 1,33 1,23 1,73 0,81 0,40 0,54 0,40 Tiu th cng nghip 0,75 1,49 1,50 1,67 1,06 1,39 0,31 -0,44 -0,10 -0,27 Thng mi dch v 0,42 1,34 0,83 1,50 4,49 3,48 4,08 3,66 2,14 1,99

Lm thu t do 0,83 1,20 1,66 1,34 0,09 0,94 -

0,74 -1,57 -0,26 -0,40 Cng nhn KCN 0 0,26 0 0,29 1,01 0,54 1,01 1,01 0,28 0,24 Hot ng khc 0,06 0,17 0,12 0,19 0,48 0,44 0,42 0,36 0,27 0,25

Tng cng 4,45 6,29 8,91 7,03 8,81 9,19 4,36 -0,10 2,89 2,16 Ngun: S liu iu tra ca nhm nghin cu, nm 2011

Kt qu phn tch s liu cho thy tng thu nhp hin ti c hai nhm u tng so vi trc khi thu hi t. C th, thu nhp ca nhm I tng 4,36 triu ng, nhm II tng 2,89 triu ng. Tuy nhin, sau khi iu chnh lm pht th thu nhp thc t ca cc nhm h thay i rt nhiu. i vi nhm I, thu nhp gim n 0,1 triu; nhm II mc tng thu nhp ch cn 2,16 triu ng. Thu nhp t sn xut nng nghip ca nhm I so vi nm trc khi thu hi t gim mnh t 43,79% xung cn 5,06%, nhm II gim 3% t 10,26% xung cn 7,26% trong tng thu nhp h nm 2011. Nguyn nhn l do mt t sn xut, thu nhp t trng trt v chn nui ca h gim hn. iu ny cho thy trn danh ngha th thu nhp ca h c tng nhng thc t th tng khng ng k hoc thm ch gim i. Do , cn c nhng gii php h tr ngi dn m bo cuc sng ca h n nh sau khi thu hi t. Trong khi , thu nhp t hot ng thng mi dch v ca h tng ng k, chim 50,99% nhm h I v 37,92% nhm h II. Nguyn nhn l do c nhiu lao ng nng nghip sau khi b thu hi t xy dng KCN chuyn sang bun bn nh quanh KCN, hoc xy nh tr nu cn nhiu t. Nhn chung, c s dch chuyn ngun thu nhp t sn xut nng nghip sang ngun thu t hot ng thng mi - dch v. S chuyn dch thu nhp ny mang tnh t pht v theo xu hng ca cng ng. Song song cng c s chuyn dch thu nhp sang lm vic trong KCN nhng s chuyn dch ny khng nhiu. 3.4 Cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i thu nhp ca ngi dn b thu hi t S dng phn mm SPSS thc hin m hnh Binary Logistic, kt qu kim nh gi thuyt v ph hp tng quan c mc ngha quan st Sig.= 0,00 nn an ton bc b gi thuyt H0 l h s hi qui ca cc bin c lp bng khng. Gi tr ca 2Log likelihood = 62,78 khng cao, th hin mc ph hp kh tt ca m hnh tng th. Xc sut d bo trng ca m hnh l 84,5%. Do , mc ph hp ca m hnh nghin cu kh cao. Theo kt qu kim nh Wald vi mc


25

ngha 5%, hu ht cc c lp u c ngha thng k ngoi tr bin X2 - tui ch h (c Sig. = 0,374 > 0,05). Bng 5: Kt qu c lng m hnh hi quy Binary Logistic

Nhn t H s () Mc ngha Exp () X1: Trnh hc vn ca ch h 0,295 0,017 1,343 X2: Tui ca ch h 0,059 0,374 1,061 X3: S lao ng trong h 0,461 0,037 1,585 X4: T l ngi ph thuc -3,178 0,010 0,042 X5: Din tch t b thu hi -0,0002 0,020 0,999 D6: Phng n s dng tin n b 1,940 0,013 6,958 D7: Tham gia lao ng ti KCN 1,649 0,031 5,201 Hng s -5,795 0,097 0,003 H s Sig. ca m hnh 0,000 -2 Log likelihood 62,78 Xc sut d on trng (%) 84,50 Ngun: Kt qu phn tch hi qui t s liu iu tra, nm 2011

T kt qu phn tch, phng trnh xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i thu nhp ca ngi dn b thu hi t nh sau: ln [

)0()1(

YPYP ] = 5,795 + 0,295X1+ 0,059X3 3,178 X4 0,0002X5 + 1,940D6 + 1,649D7

Da vo phng trnh trn cho thy, cc bin X1 (trnh hc vn ca ch h), X3 (s lao ng trong h), D6 (phng n s dng tin b) v D7 (tham gia lm vic ti KCN) c tc ng cng chiu vi bin ph thuc, hay ni cch khc khi trnh hc vn ca ch h c ci thin, s lao ng trong gia nh nhiu hn, h c s dng tin n b u t sn xut kinh doanh v h c lao ng tham gia lm vic trong KCN s lm tng thu nhp ca h. Tri li, hai bin X4 (t l ngi ph thuc) v X5 (din tch t b thu hi) tng quan nghch vi s thay i thu nhp ca h. Tuy vy, c th tng bin tc ng n s thay i thu nhp ca h gia nh c din gii chi tit nh sau: mc ngha 5%, hai bin nh lng trnh hc vn (X1) v s lao ng trong gia nh (X3) c mi quan h thun chiu vi bin thay i thu nhp ca h (Y). Gi tr ca hai bin ny cng tng th tr s ca bin ph thuc cng gn 1. Vi l do l trnh hc vn ca ngi ch h nh hng nhiu n kh nng tip cn thng tin th trng, thng tin tin b k thut v vn dng chng vo vic tm kim, ci thin thu nhp ca gia nh; trong khi , s lao ng to thu nhp cng nhiu ng ngha vi vic xc sut tng thu nhp ca h cng ln, iu ny hon ton hp l trn thc t. Bin t l ngi ph thuc (X4) c h s m l 3,178 mc ngha 5%, iu ny cho thy t l ngi ph thuc ca h c nh hng ln nht n s thay i thu nhp ca h sau khi b thu hi t, iu ny cng d nhn thy trn thc tin nhng h no c lng ngi ph thuc cng ln s lm cho kh nng tng thu nhp ca c gia nh gim xung v chi ph c hi cho vic sinh hot, gio dc, sc khe, cao hn dn n vic nh mt c hi u t sn xut kinh doanh. mc ngha 5%, bin din tch t b thu hi (X5) cng c mi tng quan nghch


26

vi bin ph thuc, nhng h s tc ng ch bng 0,0002 cho thy bin ny nh hng khng ng k nht n s thay i thu nhp ca h dn b thu hi t. Kt qu phn tch cn cho thy, vic s dng tin n b u t sn xut kinh doanh (D6) c nh hng rt ln n vic tng gim thu nhp ca h sau khi b thu hi t (vi h s tc ng l 1,940, mc ngha = 0,05). Do D6 l bin gi nn xc sut bin Y nhn gi tr 1 (thu nhp tng) l rt ln nu D6 bng 1. Ni khc i, kh nng tng thu nhp ca h c s dng tin n b u t sn xut kinh doanh l rt cao. Theo kho st thc t KCN Ho Ph, nhm tc gi nhn thy trc khi b thu hi t a s cc h dn u lm nng, c th ni t l t liu sn xut chnh mang li thu nhp cho gia nh. Do vy, khi thu hi t cng ng ngha vi vic h b mt t liu sn xut, m tin n b l nhng g h nhn c sau khi b mt t. V th, vic s dng tin n b to ra t liu, cng c sn xut kinh doanh c tc ng quan trng trong vic tng gim thu nhp ca h dn. Bin tham gia lm vic ti KCN (D7) cng l bin gi, kt qu phn tch cho thy kh nng tng thu nhp ca h s cao hn nu h c ngi tham gia lm vic ti KCN. iu ny c th gi thch v thu nhp ca vic lm nng nghip v tiu th cng nghip thng bp bnh th phng n lm cng nhn ti KCN s c thu nhp n nh hn. Nhm nghin cu tin hnh c lng tc ng bin ca tng yu t (X1, X3, X4, X5, D6, D7) n xc sut xy ra ci thin thu nhp. Xt cc trng hp xc sut tng thu nhp c gi nh ln lt l 10%, 20% v 30%, kt qu phn tch nh sau: Bng 6: c lng xc sut ci thin thu nhp

Nhn t

H s tc ng bin

(Bk )

Xc sut ci thin thu nhp khi bin c lp thay i mt n v khi gi

nh xc sut Tng 10% Tng 20% Tng 30%

X1: Trnh hc vn ca ch h 1,343 12,98 25,13 36,52 X3: S lao ng trong h 1,585 14,97 28,37 40,44 X4: T l ngi ph thuc 0,042 0,46 1,04 1,76 X5: Din tch t b thu hi 0,999 9,99 19,99 29,99 D6: Phng n s dng tin n b 6,958 43,53 63,43 74,83

D7: Tham gia lm vic ti KCN 5,201 36,57 56,47 68,98 Ngun: Kt qu phn tch t s liu iu tra, nm 2011

Trng hp xc sut ci thin thu nhp ban u l 10%: i vi bin trnh hc vn ca ch h, trong iu kin cc yu t khc khng i, khi tng mt nm i hc th xc sut tng thu nhp l 12,98%, iu ny ng ngha l tng 2,98% so vi gi nh 10% nu. Tng t, nu xt cc trng hp xc sut gi nh ban u l 20% v 30%: Xc sut tng thu nhp thc t ln lt l 25,13% v 36,52% (tc l tng 5,13% so vi gi nh 20% v tng 6,52% so vi gi nh tng 30%). Theo kt qu phn tch, ta c th d on rng khi lao ng trong h tng ln mt ngi th xc sut tng thu nhp ca h l 14,97% so vi mc gi nh ban u l 10%. Ngha l, trong iu kin cc yu t khc khng i, khi gia nh c thm mt lao ng to thu nhp th kh nng ci thin thu nhp ca h tng 4,97% so vi xc sut ci thin thu nhp ban u.


27

Kt qu thng k cn cho thy, khi t l ngi ph thuc tng ln 1% th xc sut tng thu nhp ch cn 0,46% so vi mc ban u l 10%, tc gim 9,54%. Cch l gii ny cng gn vi gi nh cc yu t khc khng i. Bin ny c tc ng mnh v kh quan trng i vi thay i thu nhp ca h dn, v th cc cp chnh quyn cn lu tm n cng tc tuyn truyn chnh sch k hoch ho gia nh cng nh chm lo n nhng ngi cao tui nhm lm gim tc ng ca bin ny n s thay i thu nhp. Trong iu kin cc yu t khc khng i, khi din tch t thu hi tng thm 1m2 th xc sut ci thin thu nhp ca h ch cn 9,99% so vi mc ra ban u 10%, tc gim i 0,01%. Cn nu xc sut ban u gi nh 20%, 30% th khi tng thu hi t trn 1m2 th xc sut gim thu nhp l 0,01%. Tng t cch lp lun trn, khi c nh cc tc nhn khc, h no c s dng tin n b u t vo sn xut kinh doanh th xc sut tng thu nhp ca h l 43,53%; i vi cc h tham gia lm vic KCN th xc sut ny l 36,57% so vi gi nh 10% ban u.

4 KT LUN V KHUYN NGH Qua qu trnh phn tch, nh gi sinh k, thu nhp ca h dn sau thu hi phc v xy dng KCN Ho Ph, nhm tc gi rt ra mt s kt lun sau: (1) Thu nhp bnh qun/h iu tra sau thu hi t c s dch chuyn gia ngun thu t sn xut nng nghip sang ngun thu t hot ng thng mi dch v. Ngun thu t hot ng thng mi dch v chim trn 40% tng thu nhp. Vic s dng tin n b ca h cn cha hiu qu, ch c khong 23-30% s tin n b c s dng vo vic u t sn xut kinh doanh. Sau khi b thu hi t, thu nhp ca cc h dn khng c s thay i ln. Cc nhn t nh hng n s thay i thu nhp ca h dn b thu hi t l trnh hc vn ca ch h, s lao ng trong h, t l ngi ph thuc, din tch t b thu hi, phng n s dng tin n b, tham gia lm vic ti KCN. nng cao thu nhp cho h dn v m bo sinh k cho h b thu hi t, nhm tc gi xut mt s khuyn ngh sai: i vi nh nc, chnh quyn a phng: Nh nc cn c nh hng ngn hn v di hn trong cng tc quy hoch tng th pht trin cc KCN trn phm vi c nc. Vic xy dng KCN cn phi tnh ton cn thn cc phng n chuyn dch sinh k v ni cho cc h dn b thu hi t; Nghin cu cc chnh sch rng buc trch nhim ca cc doanh nghip i vi sinh k v thu nhp ca cng ng dn c b thu hi t; H tr o to ngh gip h dn b thu hi t chuyn i sinh k thun li hn. i vi h dn b thu hi t: Cn c phng n s dng tin n b hiu qu, c bit l tp trung u t sn xut kinh doanh; Tch cc nm bt thng tin h tr ca chnh quyn a phng v ni , vic lm; Tch cc hc tp nng cao trnh , kin thc nhm u t cho sinh k tt hn.


28

TI LIU THAM KHO 1. Chris Huggins & ctg (2004). Land, conflict and livelihoods in the Great Lakes region,

Nairobi. Ngun http://www.nssd.net/pdf/section.pdf 2. inh Phi H, Hunh Sn V (2011). S thay i v thu nhp ca ngi dn sau khi thu hi

t xy dng KCN - Cc yu t nh hng v chnh sch gi , Tp ch pht trin kinh t, s 249, trang 35-41.

3. Th Nng v Nguyn Vn Ga (2008). Nghin cu sinh k ca h nng dn sau thu hi t nng nghip ti thn Th a, x Kim N, huyn ng Anh, H Ni. Tp ch nng nghip v pht trin nng thn, s 5, trang 10-15.

4. Hong Trng, Chu Nguyn Mng Ngc (2008), Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS, NXB Thng k, Thnh ph H Ch Minh.

5. Nguyn Trng c, Nguyn Th Minh Thu (2007). Sinh k ca h nng dn sau khi mt t sn xut nng nghip do xy dng KCN x Ngha Hip, Yn M, Hng Yn. Tp ch kinh t v pht trin, s 125, trang 38-41.

6. Tim Hanstad, Robin Nielsn and Jennifer Brown (2004). Land and Livelihoods Making Land Rights Real for Indias Rural Poor. Rural Development Institute (RDI), USA. Ngun http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/j2602e/j2602e00.htm.

7. Tng cc Thng k (2010). Ch s lm pht ca Vit Nam 2001-2010. Ngy cp nht 22/9/2011. Ngun http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?Inlationindex2001-10tabid=217

8. UBND x Ho Ph (2008, 2009). Bo co tnh hnh pht trin KT XH nm 2008, nm 2009 phng hng nhim v pht trin KT XH nm 2009, nm 2010.


29

PHN TCH CC NHN T NH HNG S HI LNG TRONG KT HN QUC T - TRNG HP PH N

BSCL LY CHNG I LOAN/HN QUC L Nguyn oan Khi1

ABSTRACT

International marriage has received increasing attention in recent years, both from a theoretical perspective and practical research because of a concern with urgent policy issues arising from the emerging trends. The aim of this paper is to analyze the current situation and the factors affecting to the Vietnamese Taiwanese/Korean marriages through evaluating efficiency of socio-economics of international marriage in the context of globalization. The paper will therefore attempt to update our knowledge of the trends in international marriage in the region, categorize the kinds of international marriages taking place and their relative numerical importance in the overall international marriage picture. In addition, it will discuss factors contributing to the trends in international marriages, especially in the case of Vietnamese-Taiwanese/Korean marriages in MRD. Finally, the paper will propose some recommendations to the Government, local authorities, Vietnameses brides, and the families with a daughter as a foreign wife to reduce risks in the international marriages. Keywords: Socio-economics, Vietnamese Taiwanese/Korean marriages, MRD Title: Analysis of determinants of the satisfaction on international marriage with

Taiwanese and Korean husbands: the case of females in the Mekong River Delta

TM TT Hn nhn quc t nhn c s quan tm nhiu trong nhng nm gn y, c nghin cu l thuyt ln thc tin bi v nhng vn chnh sch quan trng xut pht t khuynh hng pht trin loi hnh ny. Nghin cu ny nhm phn tch tnh hnh hin ti v cc nhn t nh hng n hn nhn Vit Nam i Loan v Hn Quc qua vic nh gi hiu qu kinh t - x hi ca hn nhn quc t trong bi cnh ton cu ha. Bi vit s c gng cp nht cc kin thc v khuynh hng hn nhn quc t trong khu vc, phn loi kiu hn nhn quc t hin c v cc thng k quan trng ca cc mi quan h trong mt bc tranh tng th v hn nhn c yu t nc ngoi. Bn cnh , nghin cu cng s tho lun cc nhn t nh hng n khuynh hng hn nhn quc t, c bit trong trng hp c du Vit Nam ly chng i Loan v Hn Quc. Cui cng, bi vit s trnh by mt s kin ngh vi chnh ph, chnh quyn a phng, cc c du Vit Nam, v gia nh c con gi lm du nc ngoi nhm mc ch gim thiu ri ro trong hn nhn quc t T kha: Kinh t- x hi, Hn nhn Vit Nam-i Loan/Hn Quc, BSCL

1 T VN i vi mt nc ang pht trin nh Vit Nam th ng gp quan trng vo ngun thu nhp l lng kiu hi, hng nm lng kiu hi tng ng k khong 12%/nm t nm 2010 n nay xp Vit Nam vo hng nhng nc c thu nhp t 1 Tin s, Khoa Kinh t-Qun tr kinh doanh, Trng i hc Cn Th


30

kiu hi cao nht th gii. Tm hiu thm nguyn nhn dn n ngun kiu hi cao Vit Nam, ni bt ln vic kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi ni chung v vi ngi i Loan v Hn Quc ni ring, c bit l mt s tnh thuc khu vc ng bng Sng Cu Long nh: ng Thp, Vnh Long, Cn Th, Hu Giang, Khi kinh t x hi ngy cng pht trin nh hin nay, th vn giao lu gia cc quc gia trn th gii v nhiu lnh vc khc nhau l iu hin nhin, v cng l c hi Vit Nam pht trin cng nh hc hi v mi mt. Chnh v th hin tng ph n Vit Nam kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi ngy cng gia tng trong nhng nm gn y l iu khng th trnh khi (Hong B Thnh, 2009). c bit l ti cc tnh BSCL s lng cc c gi tr kt hn vi ngi i Loan, Hn Quc l nhiu nht. Bi v ti cc tnh ny a s l sinh sng bng ngh nng l chnh, cc c gi li sng nng thn khng c trnh hc vn cao li khng c ngh nghip n nh m ch nh ph gip vic ni tr, v vy con ng nhanh nht ci thin cuc sng gia nh chnh l tm c mt ngi chng ngoi giu c. Thc t, vic kt hn vi n ng i Loan (L), v Hn Quc (HQ) din ra nh mt xu th cc tnh BSCL. M c bit l ti 4 tnh Cn Th, Vnh Long, ng Thp v Hu Giang l ni c s lng c du kt hn vi ngi L v HQ cao nht trong cc tnh ti BSCL. c c nhng minh chng khch quan, khoa hc v tin cy cao lm c s phn tch v nh gi cc ch tiu hiu qu v kinh t v x hi trong hn nhn quc t; nghin cu ny c nghim tc thc hin i su vo phn tch nhng tc ng n quyt nh kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi ca ph n BSCL. Mc tiu ca nghin cu nhm nh hng cho tnh c nhng chnh sch cp thit ph hp i vi thc trng ph n kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi, t gip cc c gi c nhn nh ng n hn i vi vic kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi, em li cuc sng tt hn cho chnh bn thn c gi v gia nh, nng cao i sng kinh t x hi a phng v cho Vit Nam.

2 MC TIU NGHIN CU Nghin cu thc hin phn tch thc trng v cc nhn t nh hng n quyt nh kt hn quc t; trn c s , xut nhng gii php nhm gim thiu ri ro trong hn nhn c yu t nc ngoi, vi nhng mc tiu c th sau: - Phn tch thc trng ph n BSCL ly chng i Loan v Hn Quc; - Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n s hi lng ca ph n BSCL vi chng

i Loan v Hn Quc; - xut mt s gii php nhm gim thiu ri ro trong hn nhn c yu t

nc ngoi.

3 PHNG PHP NGHIN CU 3.1 Phng php thu thp s liu S liu th cp c thu thp t cc ti, d n nghin cu, ti liu hi tho c lin quan n vn hn nhn c yu t nc ngoi (trng hp ph n Vit Nam ly chng i Loan, Hn Quc). Cc s liu, bo co ca hi ph n, trung tm h tr kt hn. Thng tin t cc website, tp ch c lin quan n ti nghin cu.


31

S liu s cp ti s dng phng php chn mu thun tin thu thp s liu s cp. i tng thu thp s liu s cp l cc c du ly chng i Loan, Hn Quc v cc h gia nh c con gi ly chng i Loan, Hn Quc ti 4 tnh Cn Th, ng Thp, Vnh Long, v Hu Giang vi mu cu hi son trc. Tng s quan st mu l 120, 20 gia nh c con ly chng nc ngoi v 4 nhm chuyn gia. Mu c thu thp theo phng php thun tin ti x c chn ca mi huyn v mi tnh. Bng 1 m t chi tit c cu quan st mu. Bng 1: C cu quan st mu

i tng Chi tit S quan st mu C du Vit Nam 30 ngi/ tnh 120 Gia nh c con ly chng nc ngoi 5 h/tnh 20 Tho lun nhm 1 nhm/huyn 4 nhm Tng cng 120 mu phng vn c nhn+ 20 gia nh+ 4

nhm chuyn gia

3.2 Phng php phn tch s liu S dng phng php thng k m t vi cc ch tiu nh t l, tn sut, trung bnh nh gi tng quan v tnh hnh ph n tnh Cn Th, Vnh Long, Hu Giang kt hn vi i Loan, Hn Quc. S dng phn tch hi qui Probit nh gi cc nhn t nh hng n s hi lng ca cc c du sau khi kt hn vi chng i Loan v Hn Quc.

Yi = 0 + j=1

n

i Xij + ui

Trong : Yi l bin ph thuc. N th hin c du c hi lng vi cuc sng sau khi kt hn vi chng i Loan/Hn Quc hay khng, c o lng bi 2 gi tr nh sau :

Yi =

Xij l cc bin c lp. y l cc yu t nh hng n s hi lng ca c du sau khi kt hn vi chng i Loan/Hn Quc.

4 KT QU NGHIN CU V THO LUN 4.1 Mt s thng tin c bn Bt u t nm 1992 phong tro kt hn vi ngi i Loan ngy cng rm r, v s lng lin tc gia tng k t nm 1994 (530 ngi). S lng ph n kt hn vi ngi i Loan tng cao vt bc vo nm 2000 vi 13.863 ngi. Tuy nhin, s lng ly chng i Loan c xu hng gim i cn 12.240 vo nm 2004 v n nm 2007 th cn khong di 4.000 ngi. Tuy nhin, tnh tng s lng tnh n cui nm 2010, c trn 80.000 ph n Vit Nam kt hn vi hng i Loan (Bng 2).

0 : Khng hi lng

1 : Hi lng


32

Bng 2: S lng ph n Vit Nam kt hn vi i Loan Nm S lng ph n

ly chng i Loan (ngi) 1994 530 1995 1.476 1996 3.351 1997 4.827 1998 5.035 1999 8.482 2000 13.863 2001 12.417 2002 13.743 2003 11.358 2004 12.240 2007 80.000 (Ngun: B t php)

T nm 2005 tnh hnh ly chng i Loan bt u gim xung t ngt, v thay vo ln sng kt hn vi ngi Hn Quc li ln ngi, bi v lc ny mt s trng hp bt hnh gia cc c du Vit vi trai i lm cho cc c gi e d hn khi quyt nh, thm vo giy t th tc ca vic kt hn vi ngi Hn th li nhanh gn hn. Hn na, bt u t thng 5 nm 2006 Hn Quc ch trng xy dng mt x hi a vn ha, a dn tc. Chnh v th hng lot cc s kin giao lu vn ha gia Hn Quc v quc gia khc trn th gii gia tng, v iu ny hin nhin cc cuc hn nhn quc t cng xy ra (Bng 3) Bng 3: S lng ph n Vit Nam kt hn vi Hn Quc

Nm S lng ph n ly chng i Loan (ngi)

2004 560 2005 1.500 2006 20.000 2007 25.000 2009 35.000 2010 40.000

(Ngun: B t php) Theo s liu thng k t B t php, hn nhn Vit-Hn pht trin mnh v c xu hng gia tng sau nm 2004. n nm 2004, s cuc hn nhn ch l 560. Tuy nhin, nm 2005 tng ln gn 3 ln n 1.500, nm 2006 l 20.000, nm 2007 l 25.000 v n cui nm 2010 l 40.000. Theo bo co ca B t php, ph n Vit Nam ly chng v sinh sng ti Hn Quc, chim 20% cc cuc hn nhn quc t quc gia ny. S lng n ng Hn Quc tm v cc nc ng Nam c bit gia tng trong nhng nm gn y. Hin nay, c 10 nam gii Hn Quc th c mt ngi ly v nc ngoi. Chnh ph Hn Quc ang tng cng cc bin php nhm nng cao s tn trng v hiu bit trong cc gia nh a vn ho, m cc lp hc v vn ha v nhng kin thc cn thit cho nhng ngi n ng Hn Quc mun ly v Vit v cho ph n Vit ly chng v nh c ti Hn Quc (Nguyn Ngc Tuyn, 2010). Hn Quc thnh lp hn 170 trung tm t vn cho


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cc gia nh ny ti 19 tnh, thnh ph h tr, t vn cho cc gia nh c hn nhn quc t. Hn Quc ang xy dng B lut kt hn gia cng dn Hn Quc vi cng dn Vit Nam (Trn Giang Linh, 2009) Xu hng ly chng ca ph n BSCL l kt hn vi ngi i Loan v Hn Quc, do mt s im tng ng v ngoi hnh cng nh v vn ha; hn na, hin nay nhiu chng trai i Loan/Hn Quc nng thn khng c thu nhp cao kh kim c v, th Vit Nam h c th tm c cho mnh mt c v tr, p, cng dung ngn hnh (Phm Th Thy Trang, 2005; Ng Vn L, 2007). Bn cnh , BSCL c mt s c trng v vn ha vng min. T xa n nay c dn min sng nc ny lun sng bng ngh nng l chnh, cng thm thin nhin u i, ph sa tr ph nn khng phn u g nhiu, ch lm sng lay lt qua ngy. Chnh v th trnh hc vn khng cao, nam th hay say xn, n ch bit ph gip vic gia nh (Nguyn Th Hng Xoan, 2005). Trong khi cuc sng bin i ngy cng kh khn hn, do thin tai, do vic th ha li phn bit giu ngho r rt, cng thm t tng nho gio l bo hiu cha m, cng vi trng nam khinh n. Vy nn con ngi ni y ngh rng con gi sinh ra l con ngi ta, sm mun g cng g cho nh ngi khc. Trong khi , cc c gi ni y ngh rng thay v ly mt ngi chng sut ngy ch bit say xn, khng c ngh nghip th li ngho i nh xa. Chnh v th cc c ra i ly chng x ngi bo hiu (Trn Th Kim Xuyn, 2005; Trn Giang Linh, 2009), cuc sng tt p hn, mc d c ri ro nhng m cn hn nhm mt sng cuc sng qua ngy qu nh, ra i l c c hi d t i ch cn hn tip tc cuc sng lc hu ni thn qu l khng c c hi no c.1 4.2 Kt qu phn tch Theo nh 120 mu quan st ti 4 tnh th a s tui kt hn ca cc c gi Vit Nam vi ngi i Loan cng nh Hn Quc l t 18-22 tui. Nguyn nhn l v cuc sng nng thn ngho kh, cuc sng ca ngi ph n li khng c ngh nghip, ch ph gip cho gia nh chuyn ni tr, chnh v th va bc sang tui p nht ca cuc i cc c gi khng ngn ngi i ly chng ngoi i i. Bng 4: tui kt hn ca ph n Vit Nam vi chng i Loan v Hn Quc ti 4 tnh

nghin cu VT: tui

Tui Tnh 18-22 23-26 26 tr ln Tng Cn Th 19 15 4 30Vnh Long 15 12 3 30Hu Giang 16 12 4 30 ng Thp 15 11 4 30Tng 65 50 15 120(Ngun: Phng vn trc tip 2012)

S lng ph n kt hn trong tui t 23-26 l 36,7% chim v tr th hai trong tng s 3 mc tui, bi v cng ln tui th cng t c c hi ly chng nc ngoi v lc ny khng cn xinh p nh lc mi trng thnh. Bn cnh i sng gia 1 Tho lun nhm chuyn gia, 2012


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nh ch yu l h ngho v cn ngho, khng c rung t nhiu, hc vn li thp cho nn khng kim c nhiu tin, v th nh chp nhn kt hn vi chng ln hn mnh nhiu tui Ti 4 tnh th gia nh c du a s l h ngho dao ng t 52,5%-62,5%, trong khi s h t trung bnh tr ln ch chim t 17,5%-25% (Kho st, 2012). a s ngi dn y thu nhp ch yu l lm rung, iu kin a phng kh lm n, ch yu l lao ng chn tay, gii hn v vic lm cho ngi dn kh c th pht trin bn thn v hc vn thp, do l do chn mt ngi chng i Loan hay Hn Quc l hon ton hp l, c iu kin hn v c th lo c cho gia nh.

0

5

10

15

20

Ngho Cnngho

Trungbnh tr

ln

Cn ThVnh LongHu Giangng Thp

Hnh 1: Hon cnh gia nh trc kt hn (Ngun: Phng vn trc tip 2012)

Qua s liu hnh 1 th hu nh cc h u l h ngho v cn ngho trong cc tnh cho nn vic c gi quyt nh kt hn cng l iu hon ton hin nhin c th xy ra. Trnh hc vn ca cc c gi ch yu l tiu hc chim t l cao nht. Chnh v th m cha c ci nhn ng n, h ngh rng kt hn ch yu cng ch v mun thay i cuc sng cho gia nh. Bng 5: Tnh hnh hc vn ca c du trc kt hn Cp Tn sut T l (%) M ch 11 9,2 Cp 1 72 60,0 Cp 2 21 17,5 Cp 3 11 9,2 C - H 5 4,1 Tng 120 100,0 (Ngun: Phng vn trc tip 2012)

Trong 120 mu phng vn ti c 4 a bn th trn 60% trnh hc vn ca c du l cp tiu hc, k n l trung hc c s chim 17,5%. Chnh v th m a s l cha c ngh nghip g n nh.


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Theo kho st ti trung tm nh hng ly chng nc ngoi (lp hc ti a bn Cn Th) cho c du kt hn chun b sang bn chng i Loan, cc c gi trc khi kt hn thng cha c ngh nghip g chim 55%, nu c i lm th cng ch lm thu mn, bun bn c nhng trng hp thi hc t rt sm nh cm nc cho gia nh i lm rung ri cng theo chng i gip nhng ngi trong gia nh. Bn cnh qua tho lun nhm vi cc gia nh c con gi kt hn vi chng i Loan v Hn Quc ti a bn cc x th a s c du trc khi ly chng c ngh nghip khng n nh, thu nhp thp, kh nng lo cho bn thn v gia nh l rt thp nn suy ngh rng ly chng qua s c i lm kim tin gi v cho gia nh (Tho lun nhm, 2012) Bng 6: Ngh nghip c du trc khi kt hn Ngh nghip Tn sut T l (%) Ni tr 72 60,0Lm rung 18 15,0Lm thu 6 5,0Cng nhn 12 10,0Khc 12 10,0Tng 120 100,0(Ngun: Phng vn trc tip 2012)

Theo s liu thng k bng 6, c du Vit Nam thng xut thn trong gia nh nng dn, lm nng nghip v phn ln ch nh lm ni tr (60%). Bn cnh , mt s c c ngh nghip ph trong a phng nhng khng n nh, ngun thu nhp th rt thp, y chnh l l do ph n mong mun kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi. Mc d i tng t nhn l ni tr, nhng trn thc t nhiu ngi cng khng c kh nng p ng nhu cu "qun gia" sau khi tr thnh c du L v HQ. Cc c du Vit Nam thng khng c ngh, sng ph thuc kinh t vo gia nh nh chng. Qua kho st 2012 (Bng 7), mc ch ca cc cuc hn nhn c yu t nc ngoi ni chung l v mc ch kinh t. Cc c gi i lm du x ngi ch mong mnh thot khi i ngho, m hn th na l gip gia nh vt qua kh khn. Do , mc ch gip gia nh chim t trng cao nht trong cc nhn t nh hng n quyt nh kt hn (82,5%). Yu t v hnh phc cng c cc c du cp k tip (12,5%) khi h nhn nhn hn nhn xut pht t tnh yu th s bn vng hn v mc tiu kinh t. iu kin a phng v tro lu x hi c mc nh nhau theo nh gi ca cc c du (2,5%). Yu t tro lu x hi ngha l thy ngi ta kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi ri tr nn giu c th mnh cng mun i theo h. Bn cnh cn c nguyn nhn v iu kin a phng, v bn thn cc c du ly chng nc ngoi cm thy khng hi lng v n ng a phng trong vn hnh phc gia nh.


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Bng 7: Cc nhn t nh hng n quyt nh kt hn vi i Loan v Hn Quc Nhn t T l (%)

Gip gia nh 82,5 V hnh phc 12,5 Tro lu x hi 2,5 iu kin a phng 2,5 Tng 100,0 (Ngun: Phng vn trc tip 2012)

Bng 8: Mt s nhn t nh hng n s hi lng sau kt hn Bin H s gc H s P

Hng s - 8,543 0,040 Vic lm(**) 0,187 0,025 Ngi gii thiu hn nhn(***) 0,165 0,075 Thu nhp ca chng(***) 0,0047 0,089 Hc vn 0,079 0,245 Mi quan h vi gia nh chng (***) 0,198 0,091 Kh nng ni ngoi ng (***) 0,259 0,087 Tng s quan st R2 Gi tr 2

120 0,5296 0,0003

(Ngun: S liu iu tra 2012) Ghi ch: (*)1%; (**)5%; (***)10%

T kt qu ca m hnh Probit vi nhng bin chn trn ta c m hnh: Y = - 8,543 + 0,187X1 + 0,165X2 + 0,0047X3 + 0,079X4 + 0,198X5 + 0,259X6

Qua kt qu phn tch cho thy trong 5 bin: vic lm, ngi gii thiu hn nhn, thu nhp ca chng v mi quan h vi gia nh chng u c nh hng n s hi lng v cuc sng sau khi kt hn ca cc c du, trong bin vic lm sau khi kt hn c nh hng mt thit nht. V vy, cn ra cc gii php gip c du c vic lm sau khi kt hn v gip c du c cuc sng tt hn, hi lng hn khi sng x ngi.

5 GII PHP XUT - Thit lp h thng thng tin hai chiu gia chnh ph Vit Nam v Chnh ph

cc nc c ngi Vit Nam kt hn - Tng cng qun l nh nc v hn nhn gia nh, kp thi sa i, b

sung, hon thin h thng php lut lin quan n hn nhn gia nh ni chung, trong c vn hn nhn c yu t nc ngoi.

- Hnh thnh mng li cc c s h tr hn nhn cc a phng p ng nhu cu v t vn, h tr hn nhn gia nh ni chung, thc hin v nng cao cht lng cc dch v h tr gia nh, k c t vn hn nhn trong nc v nc ngoi.

- Nh nc m phn v k kt vi cc nc cc hip nh song phng v tng tr t php. i vi nhng nc c nhiu ph n Vit Nam ly chng, cn k cc hip nh ring bit v hn nhn c yu t nc ngoi cng hp tc bo v quyn v li ch ca cng dn Vit Nam.


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- Tng cng cc chng trnh pht trin kinh t x hi cc a phng, to ra nhiu vic lm, dy ngh cho lao ng n nng thn, pht huy vai tr ca gia nh v cng ng, trang b kin thc php lut cho ph n kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi, tng cng to o k nng ngh nghip ph n c kh nng kim thm thu nhp khi sang quc gia ca chng.

- Cn bi dng nhng ni dung, kin thc, nghip v, nh hng d lun x hi trc tip mt cch khch quan, xut pht t thc t cho cc cn b a phng, gip h tr thnh i ng bo co vin -tuyn truyn vin nng ct ti c s. Thng qua mng li cng tc vin, cc on th t chc tuyn truyn, ph bin nhng kin thc lin quan n nhng vn v lut hn nhn v gia nh, nhng kin thc v tnh dc, sc kho sinh sn,... Qua cc bui gp g ny, cc tuyn truyn vin s nm bt kp thi din bin tm trng, d lun, ng thi xut cc gii php tch cc, hiu qu v ph hp vi thc tin, trnh bnh cng thc, phong tro, thnh tch.

TI LIU THAM KHO Hong B Thnh, (2009), Th trng hn nhn quc t trong bi cnh th ha, cng

nghip ha v tc ng n s pht trin x hi. Ng Vn L, (2007), Hn nhn t kha cnh vn ha. Nguyn Ngc Tuyn, (2010), Nhn li vn hn nhn quc t thng mi ha gia Vit

Nam v Hn Quc Nguyn Th Hng Xoan, (2005), Hn nhn gia ph n Vit Nam vi i Loan-mt ci

nhn t i Loan. Phm Th Thy Trang, (2005),nh hng d lun x hi ti BSCL v vic ly chng i

Loan. S t php Cn Th, Vnh Long, Hu Giang, ng Thp Trn Giang Linh, (2009), ng gp ca ph n kt hn vi ngi nc ngoi i vi gia

nh nng thn Vit Nam. Trn Th Kim Xuyn, (2005), Nguyn nhn ph n BSCL kt hn vi ngi i Loan.


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PHN TCH LI TH CNH TRANH NGNH CH BIN THY SN XUT KHU THNH PH CN TH THEO

PHNG PHP PACA Nguyn Quc Nghi1, Nguyn inh Yn Oanh1, Phan Vn Phng2 v Nguyn Bch Ngc3

ABSTRACT

With secondary data and expert consult as well as competitive advantage analysis using PACA method, this paper reflects competitive advantages of seafood processing for export in Can Tho city and suggests some solutions to enhance competition capacity of seafood processing for export in Can Tho city. Keywords: Competitive advantages, seafood processing, export Title: Analysis of competitive advantages of the export fishery processing industry in

Can Tho city regarding the PACA method

TM TT T nhng s liu th cp v phng php tham vn chuyn gia, ng thi p dng phng php phn tch li th cnh tranh theo PACA, bi vit phn nh li th cnh tranh ca ngnh ch bin thy sn xut khu thnh ph Cn Th, t xut mt s gii php nng cao nng lc cnh tranh cho ngnh ch bin thy sn xut khu ca thnh ph Cn Th. T kha: Li th cnh tranh, ch bin thy sn, xut khu

1 T VN Thu sn l mt ngnh th mnh ca nc ta v hin nay c xc nh l ngnh kinh t mi nhn ca t nc bi nhng thnh tu m ngnh t c trong thi gian va qua v nhng trin vng trong tng lai. Hin nay, TP. Cn Th c hn 30 doanh nghip ch bin thy sn xut khu. Hng nm, ngnh ch bin thy sn xut khu thu v ngun ngoi t ng k cho thnh ph. Tuy nhin, bn cnh nhng thnh tu vn cn tim n nhiu bt n nh: s khng n nh ca ngun nguyn liu, cht lng sn phm cha ng nht, s thiu ht lao ng c chuyn mn, sn phm t a dng, Nhng iu tim n nhiu nguy c cho s pht trin ca ngnh ch bin thy sn. V vy, vic phn tch li th cnh tranh ngnh ch bin thy sn xut khu TP. Cn Th l ht sc cn thit nhm cung cp thng tin thc tin, d bo v tnh kh thi v bn vng ca cc hot ng ch bin thy sn xut khu. Do , trong nghin cu ny, tc gi tp trung lm r mc tiu xc nh li th cnh tranh ca ngnh ch bin thy sn xut khu theo phng php PACA (Participatory Appraisals of Competi

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