Israeli Climate Change Information Center (ICCIC) Outline and research gaps Israeli Climate Change...

Israeli Climate Change Information Center (ICCIC)

Outline and research gaps

Prof. Ofira Ayalon, Director

מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראלICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center

Israeli Climate Change Information Center (ICCIC)

A consortium funded by Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Protection in March 2011, based at University of Haifa, in conjunction with scientists from Tel Aviv University, Technion and Neaman Institute for Advanced Policy Research.

The Focal Point for all of the Country's state-of-the-art Knowhow in CC potential impacts and adaptation capacity.


ICCIC focused on the following sectors and cross-cutting issues:o Regional and local climate scenarios- Prof. Haim Kutiel o Water resources- Prof. Nurit Klioto Public health- Prof. Manfred Greeno Biodiversity- Prof. Marcelo Sternbergo Urban planning and “green” buildings- Prof. Guedi Capeluto,

Dr. Tammar Tropo Geo-strategic aspects- Prof. Arnon Soffer o Economics- Prof. Shechter , Dr. Ruslana Rachel Palatnik,

Dr. Tzipi Eshet The 7 teams of scientists were accompanied by steering

committees composed of experts from the academia, government ministries, industry and NGOs.

The 7 teams acted as a multi-disciplinary think tank.


ICCIC reports

The first report was submitted in September 2011

Reflects the existing knowledge regarding the implications of climate

change on Israel.

Based on global and local scientific research and professional

publications.

Includes the identification of the existing research gaps

and provides detailed recommendations

about prioritized research requirements

(short-term and long-term).


ICCIC reportsThe second report was submitted in August 2012

Proposed national adaptation policy in the relevant areas and in detailed international marketing of the ICCIC activities.

Various measures to cope with climate change were surveyed in order to determine the economic resources that should be invested. These options are defined as "No Regret alternatives".

Under Climate: the climate changes that are predicted for the next 50 years are presented.

Specific policies are presented for water resources, public health, biodiversity and green building.

The mutual connections amongst the areas are analyzed in a multi-disciplinary manner using Geostrategic and Economic perspectives.


ICCIC reportsThe third report was submitted in August 2013

Proposed national adaptation policy for Local Authorities. Examples from cities in the world that prepared plans for adaptation to

climate change. Maps of Risk areas for Israel Background and review the preparation of Local Authorities in Israel to

climate change regarding water, health, bio-diversity and urban planning. Assessing Economic costs and benefits

resulting from these preparations


ICCIC reportsCurrent Activities

Assist to formulate a National Adaptation Plan for the State of Israel

Build an internet site (www.iccic.org.il)


http://www.iccic.org.il/

All the reports can be downloadedhttp://www.sviva.gov.il/subjectsEnv/ClimateChange/AdaptationKnowledgeCenter/Pages/CCKnowledgeCenter.aspx

http://www.sviva.gov.il/subjectsEnv/ClimateChange/AdaptationKnowledgeCenter/Pages/CCKnowledgeCenter.aspx



General Scientific Research

Two main groups

o Studies that document changes in different climate factors that

have been observed at different periods and in different areas,

usually, based on statistical analysis and measurements

o Studies examining different scenarios based on trends in the

variability of climatic parameters in the future, based on models and

assumptions found in studies in the first group


General Scientific Research

Main Conclusions based on the scientific research review:

o Even though the number of the published studies is rather large, their synthesis is very difficult or even impossible due to the data variability, the analysis methods and the time these studies were held.

o There are deep and variable scientific gaps in knowledge about the effects of climate change in all sectors.


11


Research Gaps – Climate AspectsPriority Research Gap Area issue Subject

2

3

Assessing the municipal contributionfor temperature changesThe effect of urbanization on rain regime

Urban Heat islands effect

Temperatures

1-211

2-3

Temperature rise and the rain regimeDownscaling the number of rain periods Downscaling the yield of rain periods Downscaling the duration of the rain season

Israel Temperatures and rainscenarios

Rain Regime

3

2

Temperatures and the rise of sea levelIdentifying the synoptic situations that cause storms

Costal Areas

Rise of sea levelWaves height

Costal Area

2 Testing time-series of pollutant concentrations from different sources

Israel, Urban areas in particular

Periodic variability

Air Pollution


SCOPUS SEARCHENVI - Environmental ScienceAGRI - Agricultural and Biological SciencesEART - Earth and Planetary Sciences

Israeli DocsWater (AGRI / ENVI / EART) 8,603Biodiversity 691Climate Change 675Environmental Health 186

13


Research Gaps – Water Aspects

Priority Research Gap issue

12

Downscaling for significant areasConnecting climate models with hydrological models, ecological and engineering

Models

1 preparedness scenarios according to the findings of the various models Adaptation

12

Soil Evaporation- data and modelling The impact of changes in evaporation on agricultural irrigation

Evaporation

1 extreme events and their effect on the soil, seeping and recharge Precipitation

12

Monitoring urban runoffRunoff and land cover

Runoff

11

Assessing the feasibility of reservoirs compared to insertion into groundwaterForecast models regarding refill aquifers in coming decades

Water reservoir

332

The effect of the temperature rise on consumption in the urban domestic sectorThe effect of the temperature rise on agricultural irrigation consumption The effect of the temperature rise on decomposition of pollutants in streams

Temperature Rise

14


1 Create an index for draught for Israel Draught

1 Assess differences between the effects of global climate change vs. anthropogenic influences on water sector

AnthropogenicEffects

32

Sewage Treatment methodsUse of bio-gas as a source of energy in WWTP- economic aspects

Sewage

2 Economic aspects of desalination of treated wastewater for dilution with fresh water and re-use for drinking water

Treated waste water

2 Pathogen analysis and epidemiology of grey water system over time Grey-water

22

Feasibility of desalination fossil water in the NegevThe Environmental impacts on the desalination on water cost

Desalination

2 Examination of water retention and insertion to upstream rivers Overland flow

1 Setting of “freshwater” definition ground water infection

1

2

Indicators of success and failure of water-saving information campaigns

Adaptation of economic tools to increase savings in domestic level and in local authorities

Urban Water consumption


Research Gaps – Water Aspects

15


Research Gaps – Water AspectsPriority Research Gap issue

2

1

The Feasibility of External costs in agriculture

Food safety- term, definition, policy (in light of CC)

Agricultural water consumption

2 Integration of renewable energies in the water sector Energy

2 Local and international definitions of water safety – new theories Water, Geo-strategic, Geo- politics, Safety

16


Research Gaps – Water AspectsClimatic conditions and their effect onPrecipitation variance issues (spread, quantity and extreme events, Frequency and duration of draughts) and related effect on water recharge

Models - Downscaling important geographic areas for the water sector Effects of rising temperature on evaporation The quality of water, Runoff monitoring, Urban savings

Economics, Planning, Social aspects

17


Research Gaps – Health AspectsPriority Research Gap issue

1

1

1. Development of a long term database on incidence and prevalence of respiratory diseases, in addition to environmental and social related variables 2. Statistical methods, such as multi-level regression to evaluate correlation between the variables and the respiratory health outcomes and path analysis to investigate possible debate of those relationships (Path analysis)

Respiratory diseases

1 Focused research on warning systems and early detection and communication with high risk specific groups related to climate change

Cardiovascular diseases

18


Research Gaps – Health AspectsPriority Research Gap issue

1

1

2

2

Build an improved monitoring system for West Nile virus in by increasing the sensitivity to discover its periodicity in early stage (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2011)Assessment of the extent increase in the use of pesticides

Develop field Kits to identify diseases in patients

Development of pest control methods against the increase of vectors

Diseases transmitted by vectors

19


Research Gaps – Biodiversity AspectsPriority Research Gap issue

12

Identifying pests that may spread due to the CCEffects of climate change on the spread of allergens

Pest species

11

Identifying ways to reduce the penetration of invasive speciesDevelop methods to suppress the invasive species

Invasive species

1 Evaluation of threshold values of the different climate variables (temperature, precipitation, evaporation), which may undermine the stability of different habitats

Ecosystem services

20


Research Gaps –Biodiversity AspectsPriority Research Gap issue

1 Using treated waste water for river rehabilitation Fresh Water habitats

There is a special need in a long-term monitoring research into evaluation of thresholds of climatic variables which may de-stabilized ecosystems and targeted research on management of sustainability of natural habitats and ecosystems to a more arid climate, and development of strategies to rehabilitate affected ecosystems.

21


Research Gaps – Urban planning and green buildings Aspects


11

11

Analysis and study of case studiesCost / benefit analysis in comparison with regular constructionIdentifying barriersMonitoring green buildings – comparison to simulation

Implementing green building

1 Development of guidelines design for other types of structures

Energy Saving

12

Energy retrofitting strategiesAssessment of savings potential in existing buildings

Energetic retrofitting of Buildings

11

Architectural design in extreme situationsUrban Planning for extreme situations

Dealing withExtreme situations

Research Gaps – Economic AspectsPriority Research Gap Subject

1 Research on Israel adaptation costs -Bottom-up, Top-Down

Estimates of Adaptation Costs

1 Economic sectorial research:• ICCIC areas (water, human health, biodiversity, green building, geo-strategy

• Other areas (energy, insurance, agriculture, coastal areas, tourism, transportation)

Economic sectorial research

1 Research based on models of the Israeli economy.Impacts of mitigation policy on adaptation strategy (complementarily/ trade offs)

Model-based research on integration of adaptation and mitigation measures

1 Research on the implications of Israel climate change uncertainty phenomenon on adaptation costs and policy decisions,

Impact of uncertainty on adaptation costs assessment



• Adaptation is an issue relevant at local, national and international levels

• It should be possible to characterize effectiveness and define “successful adaptation” processes

• The adaptation to CC is a continuous process and needs to be “adapted” to changing conditions

• The research gaps identified and rated are a snapshot of 2010-2012 for the State of Israel.

• New policies, new circumstances, new knowledge – will create new scientific questions in each relevant sector and on a local/ national/ international level.

Concluding remarks


For example,

*Mitigation and Adaptation actions may amplify the impacts of climate change- e.g., use of AC, rebound effect of efficient home appliances.

* Physical flood barriers may affect differently than ‘softer’ engineering approaches, i.e., coastal wetlands. The effectiveness of each alternative should be evaluated before and after implementation

So, research needs will change

we’ll need to fill new gaps

Israeli Climate Change Information Center (ICCIC) Outline and research gaps Israeli Climate Change...

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