investor presentation 2007 DB Chi - corpasia.net · 本公司 控制範圍以外 ......

34
-0- 機密 德意志銀行投資者說明會 2007125

Transcript of investor presentation 2007 DB Chi - corpasia.net · 本公司 控制範圍以外 ......

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    2007125

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    ()

    ()

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    IV.

    2

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    11% 108

    2005

    2.0%

    25.0%

    73.0%

    2005 20042003(1)

    721 931 1,331

    27 47 68

    52 91 104

    5 6 7

    0.8% 0.7% 0.6%

    23.3% 16.6% 11.5%

    2.6% 8.5% 22.9% :(1) 2004

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    2.4%

    2

    N/A

    < 0.1%

    0.1

    9/1992 3/200312/20011/19977/1963

    29149(259)7,363 ()

    < 0.1% 0.7%25% 73%(%)

    -0.3%1.5%10.9%(%) (2)

    1 5108358 /

    0.069.5338.5967.6 ()

    (1) (2)

    :(1) 2005/12/31 (2) 2006718,2005

    2006109

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    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

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    :

    :

    :

    : ()/ AIG

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

    :

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    23.3%

    16.6%

    11.5%

    2003 2004 2005

    5,2476,372 7,163

    2003 2004 2005

    26,742

    46,530

    68,301

    2003 2004 2005

    NT$

    NT$

    %

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    9M 2006

    6%-34%

    128%

    4.2% 0% 0.4% 1.4%

    =82

    3.5

    0.98.2

    4.2

    -0.4

    9M

    9M

    34

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    .

    .

    .

    IV.

    9

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    2005

    2005

    NT$ 20042003

    132.4 154.6 159.0

    5.0 6.5 7.4

    708.7 834.3 967.6

    32.0 47.8 54.4

    ROE (1) 24.9% 21.8% 18.7%

    ROA 0.77% 0.85% 0.82%

    63%

    13%

    14%

    63%

    : NT$1,590

    ,11%312,00035010

    ,

    :

    (1)

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    2005

    29.3

    26.5

    16.0

    15.3

    112.7

    67.0

    51.8

    51.7

    48.7

    30.6

    9.6%

    11.2%

    9.2%8.3%

    14.4%

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

    :

    NT$ %

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    (2004)

    ISO (20001998)

    (2005)

    A+ (2005)

    (2006)

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    9M 2006

    (-6%)

    : 2/3VUL1/3

    3.0

    8.0

    27.2

    12.616.0

    2.5 2.548.7

    11.7

    34.8

    9M 2005 9M 2006

    =

    0%

    27%

    241%

    -74%

    40%

    =13.2%

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    0.14 2.87 3.01

    VUL () 18.15 18.15

    9.01 9.01

    9.30 0.05 9.35

    6.67 6.67

    2.54 2.54

    18.45 5.41 24.87 48.73

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    25

    77.271.0

    0102030405060708090

    9M 2005 9M 2006

    %

    13

    81.3

    89.5

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    9M 2005 9M 2006

    %

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    2 5

    2929

    33 31

    2 4

    1110

    8 7

    66

    8%9%

    2005 9M 2006

    968

    834

    709

    598528

    -100

    100

    300

    500

    700

    900

    1,100

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

    6.4% 5.3% 5.5% 5.2% 5.1%

    16.3%

    919 1,004

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    :

    (1) CMBS,

    (2)

    (3) 20061

    CMBS#1 CMBS#2 REIT#1 CMBS#3

    01/10/05 06/22/05 12/26/05 Q1 2007

    $28 $31 $113 $14

    56%(1) 46%(1) 20% 40%(1)

    1 1

    2, 1

    , 1

    3

    (@2.85%)(2)

    (@2.69%)(2)

    (@2.25%)(2)

    5 7 5

    $7.9 $7.3 $35 (3) N/A

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    (, 30MBS6%), () ()

    (currency swap)50% (proxy hedging)

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    20015010850

    2005

    NT$Bn 200520042003

    52.20 54.34 207.10

    64.64 74.68 289.44

    (2.00) 0.02 (0.25)

    69.26 86.27 338.53

    3.44 10.51 19.81

    6%

    1%

    39%

    31%

    20%

    3%

    : NT$2,210

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    480

    379329 320 312 307 291

    341411

    565

    891959

    1,012

    1,225

    1,522

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    (1)

    :(1)

    : 200512

    Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

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    80%

    ()

    QoQ

    -5.9%

    7.3%

    6.5%

    0.5%

    8.7%

    9.3%

    7.1%

    33 34

    3%

    : 11

    33 34

    30 30

    20 20

    9 95 4

    3%3%

    Q2 2006 Q3 2006

    217 232

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    8 53 61

    5 45 50

    7 13 20

    0 2 2

    13 12 25

    () 28 80 108

    0 1 1

    28 81 109

    93

    6750

    6450 47

    30

    4760

    4558 59

    123114 110 109 108 102

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    1.22% 1.24%

    0.79%

    9M 2005 2005 9M2006

    14.40%

    21.21%20.09%

    9M 2005 2005 9M 2006

    2.99% 3.02%

    2.48%

    9M 2005 2005 9M 2006

    (NIM)

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    14%11% 12%

    2005 1H 2006 9M 2006

    ()

    : 110780

    12.0

    2.2

    6.6

    2005 1H 2006 9M 2006

    -

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    2.32%2.37%2.36%2.39%

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

    (20)

    NPL 2.5% 40%60%

    43.67% 42.53% 45.32%47.04%

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

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    2.66%2.45%2.75%2.76%

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

    4.9%7.5%

    10.0%13.7%

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

    90

    (2)

    (1)

    :(1) / (2)

    276%

    115%

    190%

    256%

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

    9.711.5

    13.510.3

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

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    4.04%

    2.99%2.33%

    1.34%

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

    25.0 24.9 25.3 25.8

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

    0.00%

    0.62%

    0.00%

    0.83%

    2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006

    (2)

    :

    (, )

    90

    (1)

    :(1) (2) (3) Q2 20060.18%0.62%

    (2) (3)

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    2002 2003 2004 2005 5,452 5,811 6,674 8,825 642 1,636 1,929 1,881 (3,728) (4,083) (4,740) (6,492) 2,453 3,779 4,244 4,402 (1,204) (2,550) (3,011) (4,729) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) - 249 229 233 (326) () (85) (46) (27) 68 164 183 206 (258) (NIM) 3.93% 3.57% 3.67% 3.03% / 10.27% 21.97% 22.42% 17.57% / 61.35% 54.82% 55.10% 60.64% 10.23% 6.36% 4.26% 2.39% 10.76% 20.62% 24.39% 47.04% 1.43% 1.75% 1.87% 1.30% 23.29% 35.26% 38.86% 22.21%

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    2002 2003 2004 2005

    3,671 3,382 2,922 10,017

    (1) 103,125 123,889 134,326 204,769

    171,737 215,886 227,503 338,539

    148,476 170,025 190,769 289,443

    10,534 10,719 10,921 19,818

    (1) 69.46% 72.87% 70.41% 70.75%

    / 6.13% 4.97% 4.80% 5.85%

    7.69% 6.32% 6.39% 8.24%

    11.28% 9.33% 9.69% 10.53%

    (1)

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    120.5125.9122.9140.7104.9EV (before COC)

    84.892.788.3107.868.5EV (after COC)

    35.7

    35.9

    84.6

    32.9

    56.1

    84.6

    33.234.636.4Cost of Capital (COC)

    Inv Return 5.30%

    Inv Return 4.80% RDR 12.9%RDR 10.9%

    41.338.320.3VIF

    84.684.684.6Net Worth

    All else equal except:Inv Return 5.05% p.a.

    RDR 11.9% p.a.

    All else equal except:

    Base Case ScenarioUnit: NT$BnValuation Date: 31 December 2005Solvency Basis:200% RBC

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    84.892.788.3107.868.5EV after COC

    107.2121.2113.3135.291.5AV (5 years NB)

    35.733.234.632.936.4Cost of Capital(COC)

    7.28.87.98.77.2V1NB after COC

    After COC

    131.9

    35.9

    84.6

    167.8

    56.1

    84.6

    157.4143.0118.5AV (20 years NB)

    Inv Return 5.3%

    Inv Return 4.8% RDR 12.90%RDR 10.90%

    41.338.320.3VIF

    84.684.684.6Net Worth

    All else equal exceptInv Return 5.05% p.a.

    RDR 11.90% p.a.

    All else equal except

    Base Case Scenario

    Unit: NT$BnValuation Date: 31 Dec, 05Solvency Basis:200% RBC