Global Environmental Change Studies: Past, Present and Future Professor Deliang Chen ( 陳德亮 )...
-
Upload
liliana-hampton -
Category
Documents
-
view
233 -
download
0
Transcript of Global Environmental Change Studies: Past, Present and Future Professor Deliang Chen ( 陳德亮 )...
Global Environmental Change Studies: Past, Present and Future
Professor Deliang Chen (陳德亮 )
ICSU Executive Director
Rcg.gvc.gu.se/dc
National Central University, Taipei, 24 November, 2010
Outline
• Earth System Science (ESS)
• Global Change and Global Environnemental Changes: an example from China
• ICSU’s perspective on the evolution of the international initiatives/programmes in Global Change research
• Future of Earth System Science
2
Definitions of ESS
• 1. Earth science (fluid and solid earth sciences)
• 2. Extended climate science
• atmosphere and ocean plus …
• hydrosphere, biosphere, biogeochemistry, ecology …
• Oriented to extending climate models to the next generation, and providing the observations needed to constrain them
• 3. The science of the integrated earth system
• The interactions between the biophysical and human parts of the Earth
• Draws from biophysical sciences, ecology, social sciences, economics
• Uses concepts and tools of complex system science (CSS): self-organisation, hierarchy, emergence, adaptation, …
• 4. Sustainability Science: the science of the integrated earth system, applied to sustainable development
Earth System Science
Advanced Climate Science and Earth Observation
Vitousek (1994)
What is Global Change?
• Nitrogen fixation • Temperature• Biodiversity………..
• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System
• Much more than climate change
• Socio-economic as well as biophysical
For example, changes in:
Reid &
Mille
r (1989)
NOAA• Atmosphere composition
• Population
• N in the coastal zone
• Forest cover
• Fisheries exploitation
U.S
. Bu
rea
u o
f the
Ce
nsu
s
Ma
cken
zie e
t al (2
00
2)
Rich
ard
s (19
91
), WR
I (19
90
)
FAO
What is Global Environmental Change?
• Nitrogen fixation
• Temperature
• Biodiversity………..
For example, changes in:
The Planetary Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene
From: Steffen et al. 2004
”the great acceleration of the human entreprise”,
1900 1950 2000
CO2, N2O, CH4 concentrations
Overfishing
Land degradation
Loss Biodiversity
…..
2010
-202
0
Gong, D.-Y., C.-H. Ho, D. Chen, Y. Qian, Y.-S. Choi, and J. Kim, 2007: Weekly cycle of aerosol-meteorology interaction over China, Journal of
Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, D22202, doi:10.1029/2007JD008888.
Gong et al., J.G.R., 2006; 2007
An Example from China
Anomalies of temperature from Sunday through Saturday.29 stations, JJA, 2001-2006; Error bars are 1 standard error about the 29-sample mean.
Anomalous frequency of light rains from Sunday through Saturday. P 5mm/day, 29 stations, JJA, 2001-2006; Error bars are 1 standard error about the 29-sample mean.
Source: United Nations Statistics Division
Globe: Cities with more than 100,000 people in 1997
China:
448 with population >0.5 million, 174 with population >1 million. Most in East China. By 2003
PM10
PM10, JJA, 2001-2006. ‘’ : PM10 stations, ‘’: R2 grids, ‘O’: radio-sounding temperature stations
Profile of temperature anomaly from Sunday through Saturday in troposphere. Shown here is the mean of 15 radiosonde observations. Unit: C. 1100UTC.
Radio-sounding
Data sources: Durre et al., 2006. J. Climate, 19, 53-68
Profile of temperature anomaly from Sunday through Saturday in troposphere. Shown here is the mean of 29 R2 grids. Unit: C.
T, R2
Anomaly of the daily mean vertical air velocity (ω) in the lower troposphere between 925 and 850 hPa levels at 29 R2 grids during 2001-2005.
Anomaly of the horizontal wind velocity in lower troposphere between 925 and 850hPa levels, shown as the average from radiosonde observations. Error bars are 1 standard error about the sample mean. 1100UTC, data availability >90%.
Radio-sounding
Data sources: Durre et al., 2006. J. Climate, 19, 53-68
1956-2005.
Whole China. JJA.
0.05 level
Climate change implication…
Linear trend of the number of light rain days during the time period 1956-2005. Unit: days/10yr. JJA.
Regional mean trends [<10mm/day]:
1956-05: -1.7days/10yr [~ 20 % ]
1980-05: -2.4days/10yr, 0.01 level
Climate implication…
Conclusion:
• There are significant, consistent weekly cycles in meteorological variables in east China during summer, most likely connected to the weekly cycle of air pollution, and a result of aerosol-atmosphere interaction.
• The significant decreasing of light rains is likely related to the enhanced human activities through the increasing air pollution.
Researching the Earth system
Our approach tounderstandingthe Earth Systemhas been to cutthe “big picture”into small pieces.
Some of thepieces lack detail,others are missingentirely - but…
Researching the Earth system
Earth SystemScience andsustainabledevelopmentneed a systemicapproach -
someone needsto put together the puzzle!
20
ICSU
• Founded in 1931, based on two earlier bodies known as the International Association of Academies (IAA; 1899-1914) and the International Research Council (IRC; 1919-1931)
• 121 National Members (representing 141 countries/regions), and 30 International Scientific Union Members
• 19 Interdisciplinary Bodies (e.g. World Climate Research Programme: WCRP)
• Unique worldwide access to intellectual resources
ICSU initiated the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1957-1958
21
22
ICSU GEC programmes
IGBPIGBP
WCRPWCRP
IHDPIHDP
DIVERSITASDIVERSITAS
International Human Dimensions Programme
World Climate Research
Programme
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
International Programme of
Biodiversity Science
Global Environmental Change (GEC) Research
1980: WCRP
1987: IGBP
1996: IHDP
2002: DIVERSITAS
Earth System Science Partnership (2001)
24
GEC Programme Reviews
Reviews
• IHDP: 2006• ESSP: 2008• IGBP: 2009• WCRP: 2009• DIVERSITAS: tba
Common recommendations
• Priority setting• Effectiveness• Integrated research
framework
25
Institutional evolution
WCRP DIVERSITASIHDPIGBP
ESSP
GCP
GWSP
GECHH
GECAFS
GCOS
GTOS
GOOS
GEO BON
START
GLP
IRDR
PECS
GEWEX
CLIVAR
Etc...
AIMES
IHOPE
Etc...
ESG
LOICZ
Etc...
bioSUSTAINABILITY
bioSERVICES
Etc...
Three Decades of Global Change Research
• Extraordinary progress in understanding the Earth System and consequences of human action
• Global environmental change outpacing response
• Current path is unsustainable• Sound basis for actions to mitigate
and adapt to global change
Need far more information and understanding to solve the problem that global environmental
change poses for our societies27
• Scientific evolution of convergence towards integrated Earth system science
Integrated Earth System Science
(growing capability of predicting the Earth system implications of anthropenic change)
Visioning ProcessGoal:To engage the scientific
community to explore options and propose steps to implement a holistic strategy for Earth system research. This strategy will both encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs
29
Earth System Visioning Process
30
Three Step Process
Online Consultation (Aug 2009)•1,016 registered users from 85 countries•323 research questions posted
31
Three Step Process
Visioning Earth System research meeting (Sept 2009)
•Early career & senior scientists•Science-policy experts•Funders•GEC programs•ICSU and ISSC
32
Three Step Process
Review Draft
Dec 2009 to Mar 2010• 46 Institutions• 202 Individuals
33
Three Step Process
Open ForumInstitutional Support Meeting
34
Three Step Process
Transition Meeting
35
36
Future outlook
A new framework is neededMobilize international global change scientific community around an unprecedented decade of focused and intensive research
Human Impacts on
System
Human Impacts on
System
Human Responses
Human Responses
Earth System Function
Earth System Function
Impacts of Global
Change on People
Impacts of Global
Change on People
Global Sustainability Research37
Transition
38
Grand Challenge #1: Forecasting
Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people
39
Grand Challenge #2: Observations
Develop the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change
40
Grand Challenge #3: Thresholds
Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and adapt to abrupt global environmental change
41
Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and adapt to abrupt global environmental change
(Lenton et al, 2008)
42
Grand Challenge #4: Responses
Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability.
43
Grand Challenge #5: Innovation
Encourage innovation (coupled with sound mechanisms for evaluation) in developing responses to achieve global sustainability
44
Future Global Change Research
• Support integrated science
• Ensure effective policy impact and communications
• Support stakeholder engagement, trans-disciplinary research approaches and co-production of knowledge
• Sufficient long-term research funding
• Foster collaborative research networks that are truly global in scope
45
A new 10 year initiative
• Deliver at global and regional scales the knowledge that societies need to effectively respond to global change while meeting economic and social goals;
• Coordinate and focus international scientific research to address the “Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability;”
• Engage a new generation of researchers in the social, economic, natural, health, and engineering sciences in global sustainability research.
46
Launching the Initiative