Financial market trend 2557

1. 2557 : 2557 : QE 2557 : Global Recovery & Infrastructure Plays 2557 : New high New low 2557 : 2557111 1516 31 41 43 44 45 48 50 52 54 60 64 65 67 69

2. 71 73 75 GFPT STA77 79 CFRESH CPF KBS KSL MINT OISHI81 83 85 87 89 91PM93TUF TVO95 97 MODERN SITHAI99 101 BAY 2557103

3. BBL KBANK KKP KTB LHBANK SCB TCAP TISCO TMB105 107 109 111 113 115 117 119 121 AEONTS ASP CGS CNS FSS GL KCAR KGI KTC MBKET TK123 125 127 129 131 133 135 137 139 141 143 BLA 2557145

4. AH SAT STANLY SNC IVL PTTGC SSI DCC DRT SCC SCCC TPIPL AP AMATA BJCHI BLAND CK CPN 2557147 149 151 153 155 157 159 161 163 165 167 169 171 173 175 177 179 181

5. HEMRAJ ITD LH LPN MK PREB PS QH RML SC SIRI SPALI STEC BANPU BCP DEMCO EASTW EGCO GLOW IRPC LANNA PTG PTT 2557183 185 187 189 191 193 195 197 199 201 203 205 207 209 211 213 215 217 219 221 223 225 227

6. PTTEP RATCH SPCG TOP TTW229 231 233 235 237 BEAUTY BIGC239 241BJC243CPALL CSS HMPRO KAMART LOXLEY MAKRO MC OFM ROBINS SINGER BCH BGH BH CHG245 247 249 251 253 255 257 259 261 263 2557265 267 269 271

7. AS BEC GRAMMY MAJOR MCOT NMG RS TKS VGI WORK273 275 277 279 281 283 285 287 289 291 CENTEL ERW293 295 AAV AOT BECL BMCL BTS BTSGIF NOK NYT PSL 2557297 299 301 303 305 307 309 311 313

8. RCL THAI TTA DELTA HANA KCE SMT SVI ADVANC AIT DTAC INTUCH JAS SAMART SIM SYMC THCOM TRUE AGE ARROW 2557315 317 319 321 323 325 327 329 331 333 335 337 339 341 343 345 347 349 351 353

9. APCO AUCT CHO JUBILE MONO NBC NINE QTC 2556-2557 2557355 357 359 361 363 365 367 369 371

10. : % y-y255425553.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 3.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 6.2 7.8 9.3 6.3 4.53.2 1.5 2.8 -0.6 0.9 0.0 -2.4 -1.6 4.9 6.4 7.7 3.2 6.2 -5* 2556 2557 2.9 3.6 1.2 2.0 1.6 2.6 -0.4 1.0 0.5 1.4 0.2 1.0 -1.8 0.7 -1.3 0.2 4.5 5.1 6.3 6.5 7.6 7.3 3.8 5.1 5.0 5.4: * -5 , , , : IMF, .. 2556: QE , (2556) 20% QE 25571 .. - .. 2557 8.5 / (Bloomberg, ..) QE

11. : 7/1/20129/1/201211/1/20121/1/20133/1/20135/1/20137/1/20139/1/20139/1/2012 11/1/20121/1/20133/1/20135/1/2013 7/1/20139/1/20135/1/20123/1/20121/1/20127/1/201212Dow Jones Index%Unemployment Rate10 8 6 4 2: Bloomberg23/1/2012 5/1/20121/1/20129/1/2011 11/1/20117/1/20113/1/2011 5/1/20111/1/20119/1/2010 11/1/20101/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 10/1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/20131/1/20100: Bloomberg 25579/1/2011: Bloomberg: Bloomberg points 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 011/1/20114/1/2013 7/1/20137/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/20131/1/2012 4/1/20124/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/20117/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/20111/1/2010 4/1/20104/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/200910/1/2008 1/1/20091/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/200807/1/20111/1/201015/1/201123/1/201131/1/201149/1/201057/1/20106Consumer Price Index (CPI)%11/1/20104.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0Existing Home Sales7/1/20101/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 10/1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013: Bloomberg5/1/2010Net Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls3/1/2010 5/1/2010k 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 2 QE 1) 2% 2) 6.5% 7.3% (10/2556) 9 2556 1.57% ( 0-0.1% 5 ) 3/1/2010

12. : %10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/20137/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/20124/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011US Govt 10 year Yield1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/20101/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 10/1/20084.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0: Bloomberg 15 .. 2557 .. 2556 Debt Ceiling 7 .. 2557 FOMC 28-29 .. 18-19 .. 2557 QE : EU IMF ECB 2 2556 0.25% 25573 25.7 3 2555 14.9 ( 3 2556) PMI 50 51.1 2 3 2556 GDP -0.1% 3 2556 BBB- B CCC+ AA+ AAA

13. : Consumer Confidence Index 0 -5Unemployment Rate(Jan -Sep 2013)%-10 -1530 25-20 -2520-30 -3515 10-40 1/3/20081/1/2009 1/11/2009 1/9/20101/7/20111/5/20121/3/20135: Bloomberg0 Greece9/1/201212/1/20123/1/20136/1/20139/1/20133/1/20136/1/20139/1/20136/1/20126/1/201212/1/20123/1/20123/1/20129/1/20129/1/201112/1/201112/1/20116/1/20119/1/20113/1/2011: Bloomberg GDP Euro Zone%3/1/201112/1/20109/1/20106/1/20103/1/201012/1/20099/1/20096/1/20093/1/200912/1/20089/1/20086/1/20083/1/20083 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6: Bloomberg 2557ItalyEuro Zone: Bloomberg6/1/20119/1/201012/1/20106/1/20109/1/200912/1/20096/1/20093/1/20099/1/200812/1/20086/1/20083/1/20083/1/2010Euro-zone PMI70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0Ireland4: Abenomics 3 1) (QE) 75,000 / 2557 2) 3) 15 2557 2% 9 2556 1.33% 5

14. : 230% GDP 5% 8% ..2557 10% ..2558 IMF 245% GDP 2573 210% GDP 5 VAT % 2563 25 - GDP : Consumer Price Index (CPI)3.0 2.0%9/1/20136/1/20133/1/20139/1/201212/1/20126/1/20123/1/20129/1/201112/1/20116/1/20113/1/20119/1/201012/1/20106/1/20109/1/200912/1/20096/1/20093/1/2009: Bloomberg9/1/20083/1/20089/1/20136/1/20133/1/20139/1/201212/1/20126/1/20123/1/20129/1/201112/1/20116/1/20113/1/20119/1/201012/1/20106/1/20103/1/20109/1/200912/1/20096/1/20093/1/20099/1/200812/1/20086/1/20083/1/2008-3.012/1/2008-2.06/1/2008-1.0: BloombergGovernment Debt as of % GDP 250 % 2 GDP ( 2 ) 2556 7.5%200 150 100 50 12/1/2008 2/1/2009 4/1/2009 6/1/2009 8/1/2009 10/1/2009 12/1/2009 2/1/2010 4/1/2010 6/1/2010 8/1/2010 10/1/2010 12/1/2010 2/1/2011 4/1/2011 6/1/2011 8/1/2011 10/1/2011 12/1/2011 2/1/2012 4/1/2012 6/1/2012 8/1/2012 10/1/2012 12/1/20120: Bloomberg 2557Real GDP14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.00.03/1/20101.05

15. : 2556 10 , . , 2557 7% 12 25576

16. : 2556 1% 2557 % y-y 2556 2557 3.7 4.8 3.1 4.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 8.7 2.5 3.8 11.3 10.6 1.0 5.0 2.25 2.4 1.1 1.2 : , PRS 2557 2-3 2554 2555 AEC 2557 25577 1) ... 2 , , 2557

17. : ... 2 7 (2557-2563) .. ... Project PlansMillion Bt 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 20132014201520162017201820192020: Moving Forward 2 , 2557 1.5 GDP 2557 1.27% ( 2556 3.5%) 25578 2557 2557 .. .. 215,000 14 240,000 480,000 2 4% 2560 3 160,000 36% 6-8%

18. : : 26.75 767,000 28,673 12 129,000 10,750 -17,923 -215,075 -264,363 -479,438 : PSR, . 2556 60,000 120,000 2) 2556 2556 1% HDD IC SSD (Solid State Drive) Value added HDD 2557 k 25,000Number of Tourists20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0: 25579

19. : 2557 2 AEC %y-y 15TH Export and Word GDP Growth TH Export CH GDP US GDP indexWorld GDP EU GDP10 5 0 -5700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 01Q2003 3Q2003 1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005 3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007 3Q2007 1Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2009 3Q2009 1Q2010 3Q2010 1Q2011 3Q2011 1Q2012 3Q2012 1Q2013 3Q2013 1Q2014F 3Q2014F-10mn: 10% to GDPTH Current Account to GDP (%)8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1Q2003 3Q2003 1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005 3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007 3Q2007 1Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2009 3Q2009 1Q2010 3Q2010 1Q2011 3Q2011 1Q2012 3Q2012 1Q2013 3Q2013 1Q2014F 3Q2014F-6: 255710

20. 2557: QE QE - Base Case 2557 1550-1660 P/E 14-15 QE QE () 1.7 .. 2553 12% 2 QE 2 .. 2554 27% 2-3 QE 3 .. 2556 24 % 4 255711: Bisnews - QE 6.5% 2% 1 4

21. 2557: QE QE .. 2556 QE QE .. 2557 () QE .. Consensus Bloomberg .. 2556 .. 2557 (.) 9 .. 2556 255712 - Best Case: 2556 - Base Case: Downside 1260 - Worst Case: . . . Downside 1150 3 16 ./ 2554 24 ./ 2555 25 ./ 3 2556

22. 2557: QE 2557 ./ ., Property Fund/REIT, Infrastructure Fund 37 ./ ./ CPTGF (9.8 ), TGGROWTH (5.5 ), SPCGIF (5.5 ) Trigger Fund Morningstar Trigger Fund 22 .. 2.1 Trigger Trigger fundBt.mn 6,000 5,000SET index4,0001651-17003,0001601-1650 1551-16002,0001500-1550 1,000 0 1Q20142Q20143Q20144Q2014: Morningstar, PSR Trigger fund 255713 1500-1550 15511600 2 Earning Growth(% y-y) 2556E 2557E AGRI 118.31 5.00 FOOD -47.86 37.77 BANK 23.76 8.02 FIN 61.09 -1.56 AUTO 25.23 6.42 PETRO -1.24 14.00 STEEL 64.74 64.69 CONMAT 50.28 7.03 PROP 40.81 -4.59 ENERG -0.24 4.00 COMM 1.77 29.34 HELTH -17.97 14.27 MEDIA 12.30 11.61 TOUR 122.26 -15.80 TRANS -57.33 236.02 ETRON 17.38 -4.58 ICT 5.72 20.28 PST Universe 8.96 12.26 : PSR Universe

23. 2557: QE 2557 QE - Base Case 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%12.7% 7.5%Average market declines 3 out of 10Total averageAverage market gains 7 out of 10 electionsYingluk (2011)Samak (2007)Thaksin II (2005)Thaksin I (2001)Chavalit (1996)Banharn (1995)Chuan I (1992)Suchinda (1992)Chatchai (1988)Prem II (1986)-4.6%: PSR 255714 2557 Universe 147 85.53% 1550-1660 12.26% y-y P/E 14-15 (ROE = 15.19%, COE = 11.8-12% Long-term growth = 9.15%)

24. 255762

25. : Global Recovery & Infrastructure Plays 1% 2556 QE AEC 2559 FOOD BANK PETRO PROP HELTH TOURISM TRANS ETRON AEC () MINT (30.00), CPF (31.25) BBL (229.00) IVL (26.80) HEMRAJ (3.90) BH (102.00), BGH (175.00) CENTEL (44.50) TTA (19.70) HANA (27.50), KCE (26.00)AEONTS, BBL, BEC, GUNKUL, PTTEP, THCOM, ITD, AIT, LOXLEY, SYNEX, SCC, SCB, KBANKEGCO, BBLAEONTS, BGH, CPF, GL, SCC, MAJOR, KTB, SCBICT COMM 2557AH, AS, CPF, CCET, THCOM, BBLAS, STA, BBL, KTB, SCB BANK CONMAT PROPAEONTS, CPF, EGCO, GLOW, RATCH, STANLY, THCOM, BANPU, BAY, CK, BBL, KTB, SCB, TMBSCC, TK, AS, STA, BANPU, IVL, APCS () KTB (25.00), BBL (229.00) SCC (510.00) CK (25.80), LPN (20.84), SIRI (2.50), BLAND (2.37) ADVANC (273.00) LOXLEY (4.90): PRS15AEONTS, PTTEP, STANLY, SCC, CPF, TUF, BJC, BBL, SCB

26. 2557 New High New Low : 1260, 1150 1600, 1880 ETI EMA-25 2556 1,260 1,600 1,260-1,600 1,260 1,150 1,600 Fibonacci 138.2% 2554 1880 255716

27. 2557 : SETAGRIGFPT: 9.50-9.30 12.00, 13.00 Cut loss 9.10 2556 Bullish MACD High 12.00 180.00-170.00 230.00, 280.00 3 Break out Modified Stochastic Oversold 180-170.00 280.00 230 255717STA: 12.00 18.70 Cut loss 11.70 Pattern Falling Wedge Bullish Divergence Modified Stochastic Oversold

28. 2557 : SETFOODCPF: 24.00-22.00 37.00, 42.00 Cut loss 21.00 EMA-75 Modified Stochastic 9320.00 12,000, 13,600 Bullish 3-4 2556 Modified Stochastic 12,000 High 13,600 255718TUF: 55.00 80.00, 100.00 Cut loss 52.00 New High 2556 Speed line

29. 2557 : SETBANKKKP: 36.00 47.00, 56.00 Cut loss 34.00 RSI Modified Stochastic Oversold 460.00 600.00, 700.00 Uptrend High 600 Trend line 700 255719TCAP: 30.00-28.00 41.00, 48.00 Cut loss 26.50 MACD Zero line 5 2556

30. 2557 : SETFINIFS: 2.40 3.20, 3.60 Cut loss 2.30 () MACD Zero line RSI 3.20 1,360.00 1,800.00 MACD Zero line EMA- 25 1360 255720KTC: 30.00-28.00 46.00 Cut loss 26.50 EMA-25 RSI MACD Zero line Bullish

31. 2557 : SETAUTOCWT: 1.40 2.50, 2.70 Cut loss 1.30 Modified Stochastic Oversold RSI 440.00-420.00 560.00, 650.00 2554 Oversold Uptrend line 650 560 255721TKT: 2.00 3.00 Cut loss 1.94 New High 5.05 2.00 Oversold Downside

32. 2557 : SETPETROIVL: 20.00-17.00 34.00, 40.00 Cut loss 16.00 () Downtrend EMA-75week MACD 880.00 1300.00, 1400.00 2556 MACD Signal line 2554 255722PTTGC: 70.00 92.00 Cut loss 67.00 ( ) MACD Signal line Zero line New High 92.00

33. 2557 : SETCONMATSCP: 6.25 14.00, 28.00 Cut loss 6.00 6.25 MACD Signal line Zero line 9,700, 9,000 12,000, 13,000 EMA-25 Fibonacci Fan 38.2% RSI 12,000 9,000 High 13,000 255723TPIPL: 10.30 18.00-20.00 Cut loss 10.00 Broadening Ascending Trendline 18.00-20.00

34. 2557 : SETPROPAP: 4.70-4.50 6.70, 9.00 Cut loss 4.40 Modified Stochastic Oversold 240.00-225.00 300.00, 375.00 EMA-25 240.00300.00 Break High 2556 255724SIRI: 1.88 2.60, 3.20 Cut loss 1.80 Extreme Oversold 2556

35. 2557 : SETENERGBANPU: 26.00, 20.00 40.00, 55.00 Cut loss 18.00 / Downtrend 40 55 18,000.00 24,000.00 2 / RSI Modified Stochastic Sideways 22,500 24,000 255725PTTEP: 150.00-140.00 200.00, 230.00 Cut loss 135.00 MACD Signal line Zero line 2556 High

36. 2557 : SETCOMMBJC: 38.00-35.00 60.00, 75.00 Cut loss 33.00 Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% 60.00 25,000.00 33,450.00, 40,650.00 2552 38.2% Fibonacci Fan MACD Zero line Bullish 255726HMPRO: 10.00-9.60 14.40, 18.00 Cut loss 9.30 .. MACD

Financial market trend 2557

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Transcript of Financial market trend 2557