Evolution Of The Mobile

Ecosystem

iRetroPhone

16 Sept 2010

4B v 1B

75%Jan 2010 - Forrester

17%Jan 2010 - Forrester

Mobile: Older Families Have The Most PhonesSeptember 2009 “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2009, US”

What’s Going On?

• Ubiquitous wireless broadband• Devices that make it easy to do more than talk• Network effects• “Affordable” services

The Brick Era: Motorola DynaTAC

• Bell Labs proposed the idea of a cellular network in 1947

• Japan launched first (analog) network in 1979; Nordic network launched in 1981

• First handheld mobile phone in the US debuted in 1983; Motorola DynaTAC 8000x, cost $4K ($8,762 today)

The Flip Phone

• Motorola MicroTAC introduced in 1989; GSM-compatible (2G) and TDMA/Dual-Mode introduced in 1994

• Reportedly inspired by Star Trek

• Pocket-sized

Candy Bar 2G (digital) network launched in Finland in

1991 included SMS

Smart Phones:Nokia 9000 Communicator, 1996

Smart Phones: Palm Treo 180,

2002

Smart Phones: Nokia 6650 (3G),

2002

Smart Phones: RIM

BlackBerry 58102002

Smart Phones: Motorola Razr V3, 2004

Smart Phones: Apple iPhone,

2007

The Touch Era Is Born

Some iPhone Data Points

• March 2008: 85% iPhone users access news & info v 13.1% all mobile users and 58% all smart phone users

• More than 2,000 mobile applications in less than 1 year

• More than 10,000 mobile applications downloaded w/in 6 months of 3GS (June 2009)

The Mobile Ecosystem

• Operators and Networks• Devices• Operating Systems• Applications

Operators & Networks

1. China Mobile, >500M subscribers2. Vodafone, >340M subscribers3. Telefonica, >265M subscribers4. America Movil, >182M subscribers5. Telenor, >164M subscribers […]• Verizon (45% Vodafone), >92M subscribers• AT&T, >85M subscribers

Devices

• More than 4.6 billion cellphones• More than 6-in-10 people have cellphones

US Smartphone Market Share

ComScore, March 2010

RIM

Apple

Motorola

Google

Palm

44.3

19.4

15.4

9.6

6.84.4

Percent, 1st Qtr 2010

SymbianRIMAppleAndroidWindowsOther

Operating Systems Global

Market Share

Applications

• Frameworks are standardized; devices are not

• Device variables include– Version supported– Screen size– Processor power– Graphics capabilities– Number and orientation of buttons

Web As Alternative?

• Web browser as solution to variability versus developing for a platform, such as iPhone or Android

• But each version of a device may have a different browser and/or a different version

• Operators set these requirements• Problem: device fragmentation

Types : SMS

• Most basic: SMS– Send keyword (“health”) to a shortcode

(“12345”) and get something in return– Think Twitter, Haiti fundraiser, WashDOT

Types: Mobile Web App

• Mobile Web Apps– Basic HTML, CSS, Javascript– Challenge to support multiple devices– Logical extension of web apps– Alters views in place rather than loading new

pages

Types : “Native Apps”

• Created and compiled for each platform• Best-in-class user experience• Cannot be easily ported to other devices

– An exception: games are relatively easy to port

What’s Different?

• Designing for fingers/touchscreens• Memory, CPU, power limits• Screen size• Task focus• Location-based features• Iffy-or-slow Internet access

AP

BBC

NPR

Positioning Mobile

• Seventh mass medium - Tomi Ahonen– Printing– Audio Recording– Cinema– Radio– TV– Internet

Positioning Mobile

• First personal mass medium• First always-on mass medium• First always-carried mass medium• First mass medium where individuals can be

identified• First mass medium to facilitate the “creative

impulse”

Source: Mobile Design and Development (p39) and http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html

Context

• Most mobile tasks are short• Most mobile tasks are undertaken “in

between” something else … waiting in line, riding the bus, walking between meetings

Take-Aways

• Immediate, Personal• $ Is The Question• Mobile devices soon to be key gateway to our

digital world

Credits Woman with mobile phone:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/jamesjustin/2894092846/

Man with mobile phone: http://www.flickr.com/photos/blindscapes/3621995479/

Three generations with mobile phone: http://www.flickr.com/photos/olliesphotos/333193604/

Credits

• Kathy E. Gill, @kegill– http://wiredpen.com/– http://faculty.washington.edu/

• Creative Commons: non-commercial, attribution, share-and-share-alike

• Historical device images copyright respective owners, used here via Fair Use Doctrine• iPhone app images made using my device• Woman with mobile phone: http://www.flickr.com/photos/jamesjustin/2894092846/• Man with mobile phone: http://www.flickr.com/photos/blindscapes/3621995479/• Three generations with mobile phone:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/olliesphotos/333193604/