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JAG LG2çLJC4 OuT 91JJ?2J2 b'L9iucçuc LcbLc2du4çiou2 O poçj 20CJ9J

u iiuçuc amubporn

opu (J)CçiOII2 O OJJGL2) OLIIJ O 2çLGJC combJduJduLiJc2 2rTqJcq p? COOBGL uqaociJ 1IIJI MiJJ GXpipi4 qcbcuqcuc ouj2 on çpc

Page 9: cwpq iv on - NBER

OçJJGL itoLq2 GIJ2 qo iJoç COWWffCTG OL cooLqiUçG qGcJiou2 IO JJG IJJGU CJJOJCG JGAGJ MJflCJJ 1 TuqGbGuqGuc O JJG L jiçioiJ O (cc) A PObGL!0UJJA flJG9IJ2 ccp 91CG2 p12 cpoicG iu 'u GxbGcç9ç1ou

2bGciIjcciou () riuq uiubçiou GU2 noijcoobGLiAGJ

jj 1L2 2cITq? cpG GJJJJOL o moqj MJçJJ JJG bLoboLpornJ 2bJJJo/i

s pc ceonomA pcp&iot &içjr bLoboL;!ornrJ abijjoActa

r EdmJ!PL!Thm bLobcLpc2 1T]1GL noucoobGL9;IAG qGci2iomu9Jnu

—j)

—(j) mjj jjo GxbJici cjcnjçiou o o()

bLoprpiJiç? — j) > bLmGL1çJou o bLoppiJi qGu214 oV2 JJG BLOpp1JIçA c JG2 OH JJG AJfIG — j L9JJGL j ijj dnq

O9((—J)—(J) <t) = ()

GxcmG-JJJrG qi2cupITcGq 2o

MG 22ITIIJG 4J3G GLLOL2 — j) uq €(j) i.c rnqGbGuqGu uqcoiIJciqG 011 JJO2G 4GLW2 MJJJCJJ COIJ IJ JJG rnquqrrj CPO!CG LTpJG

IAJflJG 2ocigJ ITpJJç? 2bGcqicspou2 qiGL III JGAGJ jJc?mjuu is o 4JJG icç cp c4 = Jjfl2 0LIIJ Oi (2) MJJGIJ C0IJçLçGq Micy ()

— — = — + (4)) (e)

(2)10 2GG LGJcTOu2pth &MGGU 4JJG OLIIJ2 O 2OC1 sTTjiç MG LGML1G

bLoboLTouJ 2bIJJ0AGL2 C2G

JJJJJ2 2JJGCiI1CçiOIJ bGuJiG2 qG/JIOIJ2 IL horn IIJGIJ IIJOLG 2çLOIJJK JU çpG

Page 10: cwpq iv on - NBER

LG211J42

JJG AL1OU2 mOfTASçJOIJ2 OL JJG JOi2çiC moqGJ 2 MGJJ 92 qGLi/poU2 O UJIJAGG UGL2OU qc uq j1pic (j) for. g AJmpJc qi2crr22JoIr o

ji moqj o ic'j mGcpu1c (coIubLGpGu2iAGj? qGAGJobGq " EIJ!BLOppJJTç7 2çLJTCçJTLG drnAJGu 4O JJG 2o-c9'JJGq IJJGSIJ I1GJq AGL OIJ O] 4JJG CHL!

4JT12 OL 12 ITIIIGIJG p? iIJçGLcçioIJ2 Jj112

AGLG o JuqiAiqrrJ qGcJ2Jou2 '— = 2 iwwGqw4G MJJGIJ '\. O

{o j} p 4J312 qJ bbjicpiji o jw o jL IJrrwpL3 JJG 2mbJG= in OL€JGL o JJG iuqJAiqn'J qGci2iou2 Lom {

JoiaçJc oLm ojjo qTLGcçJ EJJIJ ouG bGqouu2 qJG CJJ9JJG O A9i19pJc

M1' '= o GxbLa21ou i bLoboLpon'J o JoJ2ic qGu2ic

t'E{—jj} E{—TJ}(()+)))oç() = = T (a)

> (cc(r) +x

G2flLC OAGL 9JJ CJJOJCG2 EJJJ GdJ19j

2IIJCG cIJG (c) GLI1J2 LG JHqGBGIJqGIJç CL022 ¶1EIJ42 1O1IJ BLOpp1J1c?

GLUJ2 GCJJ CJJOJCG

(oL j) HJJJ COIJAGLG O LGLJG22 O JJG AYJflG2 O }TG bLr/G ¶flJq 2OC1J fliJJ4

On JJG LG9JiGq CJJOICG EJJJ AIJ12p MJJGLG2 92 \= JJG bLoppJJ1ç2 = — j

COIIJbOuGri O ITçIJIçA qGçGLmiuG2 ¶CcrJgJ CJJOICG' MT' \OO cjcç o (c)p bLoppJJi \ bLwLr2 cJJG GXGU MJTIC}T 4JJG qGçGLmiUJ2JC

E { — i T}

— >1 (s(t) +

cpoicG ijj op cj bLoppiJi22uqLq rnqci jrn GxLGm-AJnG nmbçiou OL €(m) cp iuqiiqn'j

Page 11: cwpq iv on - NBER

(oL CdrnAgJGuJA Cxbccçç1ou LG L9JOIJJ 111 2çGrq2 2ccG) 20111JJ? llG LCdHILG JJ12 1011Jç bLoppJJJ IIJG921ILG 12 2GJI-COIJ2i24CIJ

______________________ —E i —

+) — — —— + _ 15

GdLrJ

Eli!2 (J2) b Jpc cxbcç€q ijir o cji O G2G LIJOUJ MFLWJC2 M1JJ

rnimpL &ijj bbjA mbJG mu 0L n? qcupq oi GxmbJG inTnq iqnicjj qi2çL1prJGq BGLIJ0JJJJJ L9UOUJ A'L1pJG2 HGUCC g J9'ft O JfLG

bLoppiJiç2 qcui pn cçor iuço WG bLoqrrcç o iuqCbGuqCnc2111CC cb() C91JCCJ2 OIJ III 11JTGLOL rrq qGuomiuçoL

()+ rw)JJJJJ2 JJUGL LGbLG2GuçioIJ imbjica qç JJG ]OJIJ bLoppiJJç2 cd1w12

CJJOICG2

bLoboLiouq O }JG qCCLmiui24iC bLJAçG 'c!J! qiIcLGucG p1tIJ pGj4OçicC iIJJbJic2 cpc = — — j)) uq 20 bLmGçCL !2

\1 + y MJJCLG \ uq 91C CJJO2GU 20 + y = c(j) uq — + = —9LG qG9pu /MJJ prnL? CJJ01CC2 BLJJçG iTç1J! n() C1J pG LGbJCGqGXbLG22JOIJ O11J2 qGbcuq2 OIl c JJUG'LJ? JJI Jr? G qOIJC ¶12 OJJOE2 2!11CC MG

COIIJIJJOII AJIIG GCOIJ MG COUJGL Gd () 20 JJG

JIJ OJJGL MOL€J2 GC iuqJAJqnJ2 GxbGcç9pou O JJG I1JGIJ !2 LGbJcGq MJçJJ

= 9 A (so)

rnqci ¶12alImbi0uMG combric ¶111 GcTITJJIpLIIIIIJ bLoppJJiçX G92flLG 0L

qGAGJobGq ojjoit(J2)) IJJG bLobGLç1G2 0 JJ12 ]OJIJç bLoppTJJç? IUG92J1LG 0L JgLG Jñ G

Page 12: cwpq iv on - NBER

ibiriw I noiIioqoi vd w (II) bn6 (Of) .p3 ibiw ir{oT = () 9vrtJ3mqooDnon l9brIxJ timif imonoc isI i{ lo 1oivd3d 91b ribi&ID

nbLsmnoi2iDb

9vit.s13qooDnou IttiW 293i0d3 3J9i321b iol eidmun t&I lo w.&J .1 o1180ojq nbLsm1Ioien9b

noiD1iDsq vtifftis IthDoa nvi I9vitsqooarzorI noib saoorb ari nr1W . oo=I a noiDqx9 bbii IrIommoD nvi bni (4) .p

(CI) +

iJ rIDn s1 9LIJSV no aaix 9mdT .ss

(44) (* + =

ILB oi iorb lo riism r{t lo noibqx InaiafIoD-1I9 i rbrsa riA .imrI moiio mJ fi th

DiirIirrI19b iii iidiIiirp fqiInm o uoLfins n Jidir{x Iliw I3bom iriT bn qooD th bdi13b oi{ a ibue ethmtn9m9IqIuoD lo ef3bom

IqifIum fEefEr{T .(If) .p o enoiir1oe 91qifnm teix sirLt nsrfw (88@1) iu{oL

is rbidw BI9V9I iorb 6Vi iiieib lo rieix 3r1J Iqmi erioxftrloa

10 nfeix rL ml eiioiibnoD .enoieiD9b 1miqo ILfihJbivibni iLtiw Idi6qmoD 9r1t lo eittqoiq 31li moil bsrii&tdo J3thb9mmi d im enoiftrioa 3JqiIIJm

noi!ibnoD rriiriidilitrp Isi3oa 9rD ci rIm1iupi 3nsteidno3-1ba eidT .(dsC@@1) i)JCIifiM fir b9eeuDeib

9DfIBj1VfIOD Isw bns noiie o I19i ba6 hroi{iioirIT .I9vib3qeI

fi0TfC nieu iol noii&i1ieii Iimio1 iol 181 .q (8@f) eifI .notheoqoiq 9rLt III 33fliVLI0D

Of

Page 13: cwpq iv on - NBER

TI

cjroicc in bobnjriou = MJJGU GU2 bo22c22 2cJI-cou2i2çeuç

e2pJJa}T JJe Jimiçrn LobcLpc2 o beLccn9c o bo2JçiAcJUqJ1Jq1IJ2 cjo2c iuqijGLGuç pcccu cJJoJcc2

O2GLAG UJflJcJbpciA JU cjioc 20C19j GUAiLoIJmGIJç2 iU MJJICJJ BL1AG JTçJJJçA LGIJGL2

MJJJCJJ GU2IILG2 JJ9 JJG GdHJJJpLJHUJ 12 11IJidfl JJJJI2 TIJJbJic2 12 IUO2 jijcj?

BLIMFçc ffçJJi4 p OJJGL ML2 OL Gcp \ uq IAIJJ cxl2ç JGAGJ OL

rrçijiçA 2 cjj jc muJ11qe o pJ2 one cJIoJcc rnqnceq p?TAGL1G cdrnjipLrnm cpoicc JGAGJ2 qcbcuq2 po]i ou pc 2OcJ9J

one rnçcLcpIJ crçne o qic bLobo2iion 12 cpc boçcuçij OL mnjpbjeLOO2

iooç 22ocJcq itiçp mcu peçccu o AJ11G2 AJJGU LG irnrjpbje

cpoicc JcAJ UJ jncjJ pe JLG2 bcLcenG o GIT2 CJJOO2G T rnq 2 42MG

JcicJ in MJJicJJ J1LG2 bcLccuçc O G1J2 CJJOO2G — T &%S* g2 me11J

bL0b02!0U ¶JJ0M2 112 qc2inçG uçpoITrç iupirnçA mcsu cjloicc

92

9 OL > JJGLG 6Xi2ç2 lrrndnc oo cd (Ti) 2gIue

29G rnq ocJJcL2 bo2eG22Ju obbo2Jçc 21U

i J,OL <' cpeLc cx12ç 4JJLGG LOO2 o cd (T one o iJJJcjJ JJG

j i> I uq cxiap2 y (M}Jicp qebGuq2 on ) 2ITCp

bo2içiJc one ooç 12 nq one ooç 12

\r1> I uq i = exi2ç JJLGG LOO2 o çJJG2G LOO2 12

LLOb01!OU E" o mIIWbJG 7AGLC CJJOJCG JGACJ2 !D Gdmppulnu

.) frIJcçiOU SIJq LG 2Lr9i1cq !U bL0b02!c!011 5

Page 14: cwpq iv on - NBER

T

ThJJGLG

(J2)

JGAGJ2 JGL 9aJ1mbiou GxbGcççou OpGX2 LGJcioupTb

w rnq MG qo p? courqLiu q?umic2 o iuu CJJOCGc cou2JqcL JJG q?u9iuJc 'pIJJ o q? GdrnJJpunm cporcc JGAGJ2

D""! 2P7P!J!l

CJJL9C4GLJG2 JJG GdrnppLrnm oi cp ccouom?

II V O cP61 = J OL qcbcuqiu ou jncp Loot oj cd (j)

JJG LOO O Gd (J) JtJncp cpcu GdrnJJpLrnm oi 4JJG GCO1TOIJJII V = o °° ° 0 qGbGuqiu Oil EJJGJJGL JS OL

• —=

=

j =oq\<i =moqj bmrmGçGL

bLobo2Ipou G4ILGCD J1nnrn bctccuçc o boalpAG cJroicG2 uq

OJJOEJil bLobGLçiG OL 9tG 4oLE1Lq 4O /GLJ

GJGC4JOU Oi B914ICITJL 2OJITcTOIJ (j) MJJGIJ UJflJibJG 2OJITcJOU2 GXJ2ç luG

LOIJJ? (ccoLqiu o bL0b0!c0U j) n"c E}Jxc}J qGbGuq ' rnqcxbccioim itT JJG GU2G O Gd (j OJAGU bL0b0!4!011 J EJJJ COIJAGLG

Page 15: cwpq iv on - NBER

T

1IJIGLGIJGL;JOrn1J 2OC1J Cbicj jr2, jop iiu iuGLbLGççJoIrnoqcj OL J9'poL UJLJGç COUUGCIOU 6CCç2 pOITL?2 (J) uoiou oqGBGIJq ou JOL OLCG b9'LçJcJbçiou qGcrarou2 o GHGLç1OH — j qn

o jpoL oLcG brLpcibçioIJ o GuGLçiou s

MJJ1CJJ p? bLObO2iiOIJ 5 UJfl2 p 2JUCG 4JJGLG ¶LG UO OJJGL 2çG9q7rncLG9iu rncc &s i pornJqq 2GdJ1GucG iuiT COUAGLG 2OWG JiIJJJç

0 + B Gd (Y >—

A > T o drnucG i uJonoorncjj?! s0 > 0 uq T <&is0 iO <0 MOM iibbo2G MG 2L MTJJ

mmi o s( ) OUG coiijq ijiiq UGijJpoLjJooq ornq &s = 0 ncj cpc2111CC cc(O) = 0 3S = 0 12 IJO JOCJJ2 24pJG 2111CC p?L couçurnçA wiJq

2nbboeG içp &s0 = mojq !wbJ2(J(O)_ O)

> 0

_________—

— — J) = —'))

—(Ta)

= o j C9C qcLiA9cJJG O &1S ——

MJJJ LG2bGcç o &is— T

MIJJ GdJT9J

MG 2JGCJJ 9'U LJT11JG11 OU 2çpJJJç? 9 OJJOM2 rrmJIJ \\> T 'qMJJCLG 12 9JCGIJ 9IJIJAJJGLG 111 2OIIJG UCiJJpoLJJooq O 4JJ9 24Gq aççc

= + &s —T) (J)

bL0b02c!011 T M1JJ LGdJ1TLC 4JJ9 Ic LGbLG2GIJç2 9 Ji11Ji1IJ 2OJiTçiOU O&S —

IPGLGOLG JOC9J 2çpiJiç? o bLcicrrJ'L 2çG9'q2 2G 1qGU4T1Gq rn

Ed (TT) 1mmGqiGJ imbJiG2 4JJG cxiaçcuC o nrndnG couqJcIou9J ou

CJ1LLGIJ iuqiiiqiTJ boI2 OHL IJJ?2i2 MiJJ J2o bbjAiUccLccmbOLrI 9'2 111 D11LJH (J) 20 JJ14 LGG pGJJAiOL J9'2ç bcLioq

TIJJOflG2 O JJG IuoqGJ MJJJ GAOJAG MOcJCG 2 MGJJ J çJJG 2bIJJOAGL GGC2 9LG

cJJG IJJA2I2 0 JGLIJ1IJ InGCpuJ2rJJ2 IIJ JJG moqj i OG2 1JJnaçLçG JJOM q?u9irncMJJICJJ GXbGC410IJ2 LG ijj?obic MJJIJG 9TT9J?212 CGL1UJ OG2 uoç GXps'JTac

JU OJJGL MOL2 MG COU2IJGL cJJG q?uJmica O 2GdITGIJCG O J9LG GCO11OUJ1G2

—= (T@)

Page 16: cwpq iv on - NBER

wo4 .wol9d moil 31d 1IDol i sn 3lohi3r{T .3u1v 3vitiaoq r{11w nodLr1oa

r{ iIqmi ('1) .p u> 1sn e3ilqmi (81) .p ir{ uI .1 = sII oqqiJa ai imiI ai sii 911np91 niss 111w rbiu{w nias1D3b JLsDrnoonom al n3IJp3a ai nr{ utsv 3vLtioq rLiw es bs2 r1o on errs 3I3Eb nia n vI

. ct io i1id L&o1 Rii3v airiT .svod mon 31dsta

.119w as 31da iJIsDo1 3d

13Hiuiq ei (1ism hid) 0 bn ooi 9uL i{iw 9d lo aiLsnA i1id i{ wori ot beu 3d fl 1Iino3t iroo1n 13r{1u 0 = \ r1 o

I o I > 1, ir{i r19r{w irno Xbs3 upinij r1 lo .I noiiieoqoi o bs1 air1 i3f{9oT .rIuons

I9voI ioib um Jrh ibsJa 10 JiIids .1 noitiaoqoi

31ff bru nbLsmnoiiD3b svisiqoonon lo noitqmuas 9rLt ibnU 1) .p 33O1 rioisnnoI

.91da 1IsDoI 3d aum ooi sr1 fooi 311p111u fidir1x3 (14) .p II . S1V e13v91 3310113 ff89111 96 b3a rff nr{f fooi ir1f afidif{x9 (11) .p II .s

i U 19V31 3310113 1189ffi 3fSf bs3f a 9fI a89131{W 31d 1I&)o1 918 f11'c bilfi

.91dJanhc 1Ls3o1

oiiM ui a3al?L5r15 o h13m91qffi03 n1a913hI1 ni a9bzvolq f1uai airiT

booifIoddi9n b9fs19fni lo idi1idani 9d no (C@1) mrodnH blul (8'@1) a9aLsas 9aOfIf 91111W .a3iiiLsnl3fx3 qicoisifni ul 9191ff 113111w ui thidiliup9

lo 93U9831 911 III 9qvf d a3VI3am3IIf Sf 313 Iliw afn9s woif worla

qno1-aao13 bus f13n3Omo1f qmroi-nir1fiw ni3IJb1ri d313r1f a9if11sn13fx3

1OV1f5191 f 35 of SaOO±) 11kw afrxss wod asfsrfau1Ji aiaiisns uco yh3n3o19f9r1

aaois (c lo anoiffiiI59r lo amisf iii lJSIIiISb) aqvf 1131ff 11311W Ia1Jo9n9omor1

.quo nommo s miol o b3linpsl 315 31ff bILS JO91I9O19f9ff 918 (

Page 17: cwpq iv on - NBER

12

= o G2? o po I I = o Gd (jo) uq (50)

— (s(tb(\+ \ + \i) + 'b( —\ + \ — (j)E(A() I ) =

cp tOL LT?. LOO w JJG GxbcçGq irpji C9'U G /&LJ4GU 9

IJqGL2OIJ q JJm uq pi () b QJ-J OL 9 bLoo) ro/t

EA() c)= E(+ + cs + (r) (so)

E(A() + + iç + r)) (Ta)

cJcirJciou combiTh2G cJJi2 GMTJflYG 2OCiJ MGJJLG TJIJGL JJ MO IIJG9II CJJOICG JG/GJ JJJJ2BLIOL 4JJG LG9'JJciOrJ O J3I LIJOIIJ ITJJJ LuJa) rnJqGL ito GdrnJJpLJ ¶flJCLO22 cu o ç?LbicJ nç (s GxbGccGqbL0 '!JJ ! HOG/GL OUG C1IJ GXb1014 jJ BLGGLGIJCG 2mmGçLA

LGJciAG q€iLpiJiç? o uq GdrnJipuiTm WGU2 9IJ GLGOLG IJO

riçiji Juqflccq p? cj cJJoicG o OçjJGL HGUCG G2G 9GU2 IIJJJ qI21LGG Oil IJJGC9IJ2G 20113G GIJ O CJJOO2G — 1 YIJq OJJGL2 4O CJJOO2G J LGLJG2 O 4JJG OCJJ

(') JJJJG LG2OU OL JJ12 12 21111BJG LGJ141OIJ2 O 4JJG2G GLLOL2 JMJJ

GdrnJipLrnuJ mGU cJJ0JcG JGAGJ2 1AGIJ 9 LGJJ9OU O iUqiAiqflrJ iTçiJi4A GLLOL2

9'IJq OGL2 (aao) JJGLG MJJJ IJOç GXI2ç ¶J b'L0 LSUJC1U CLO22 çJJG

2rIq1Gq Il CO ¶ruq IOJJU (ia) iJq JfflJLOIJJ

p 2JJp2GdTTGIJc uj?i .t 2JJ9JJ OC1T12 ouj? OU JJG 4fO 2ç'pJG GdJ11JPL!

Page 18: cwpq iv on - NBER

qduomJrrcoL o GxbLG22Jow flGUCG Gd2 () uq (JJ) 9'LG Gdrn/JGu4 MpICJJ

O1CG pOMGAGL— + CJ'I1CGJ2 oii o1 pG UflGLOL nq

"E{—TJ} E{—jj}> > (!+ \W — +

I

Z + — +I

]ornç bLoppipç OL CJJOJCG2 IIUJJ OpGA

2OC1J "c'J' GIJJpOqIG2 COIJOLUJiç2. GIGC42 O JJG OLIU Gd (2) u C2G JJG

F'JI MG COIJ2IqGL bLobGLiG2 O UOUCOObGL9AG Gdfr!J!pL!um MJJGU

th J'LG GCOUOWA JXJ1AIOL MJ4JT COIJtOUUIA ccç

T22OCifGq &ç bLoAiqc cdn9j JGAGJ2 o cxbGcçGq nçijiç? OL GC GIJçsr = JGIJ JJG GdrnJipLJlTm 22oCi9cGq M}J &S 9IJ GduJ!J!PL!ffIU

M1J3

JJ1JJGL JGACJ O GXbGcccq iiçijiç? OL G9C GUç JJFIJ JJG GdrnJJpLJrnu 9'2OC1çGq

> o (< oY cJJGIJ GdrnjipLrnm 92OCiçGq MJçJJ (s) bLoAiqc2

LL0b02ic!01 jAGJTLG LUJCTUa

21G qiLccçJou JJJJJ2 AGLJ1G2 bLObO2ilJOIJ 'Y

mximjG2 GxbGcfGq ffçJJi 2JUCG bLiiçG sIJq 2OCJ9J JIc1JJA GUGC2 MOLJ 111 JTG

2 mu bLiJG uIpJIç?k i'Jou MoIrJq iuqfrc 12 4JJ MpiCpcJJG GxbGcGq 1IfflçA JTIJqGL w (çF )- JUç1T1çJAGJ? JJG LOO MJJO2G 21U 12 JJG

(I I > I I) 20 cpc JJG GxbGccq irpjiç2 nuqci (i) rusmç GXCGGGdf1J GXBGCcGq J!1 oJ JJG O4JJGL JJuq MJJGH > o (<oY I I > I I

UJH2 G GdJTJ IJJJT2 IIJ 4JJG 2GIJCG O IJA bLiJçc IJ41J1 GCJJ LOO bLOAIqG2

Page 19: cwpq iv on - NBER

eI9vo11iqa Lsuohoqoiq rL io1 b3qol3v3b 3vsrI 9W a nàs91 Its t{t aimm ai i isrLhis'1I .119w as noi3i1iD9qa Jim1o1noD r1 o Iqq rxorDiIiD3qa

I9brns noi92 [Ii anoialilDrxoD bn aiatsrii r{ ss3iIq91 o buwio1dia . noiiaoqoI o ab1 ibiriw D9I9 vim1omnoD

9vithoq i9bnu muiidiiup9 9viJLil5qoo3fion lo 9Dn31sviup1 .ö floxix8oqcnI

Th iimio1nco bits ivolliq

nsrfl 13f{JJr () .p miol r1J aLs iiIitu LsiDoa Ii Mud 1Iia 111w -1 arioiiaoqoi

i9nasIq J&iDO £ 19b11ff lOWlUI9d fflOflO39 91fiJ .'

n91Iw aeITs LiDifiw 91Lf9ffi vti1iddoiq mlrildilinp3 9d mbrarIoD won 9W

1iIthiJ aaaaq 9a01{W r3nnsIq tsiDoa d b3niaas 911 a9Drorb tsubivibni bn DLtar1nfrrt93b lo ataiano3 riDiriw ( 3DiOfI3 lo 19a 911t 19V0 riothiiu1

fI9fIOffIOD mob nii

(Cs)

a13mm1q tsi3oa r1 lo fl91IOfflO3 Dx±inim133b 9rLt nis1tanoD Iliw 9W

tsicbivibui I1 O atn9noqmoD Di if1iffit39b r1 lo mij iI Lsup3 o i1iu noisIirqoq 3rLt iii asii1thi

I () + ()s) ()\3

I9nnsIq 9rf fIoiDffihI fi1in huiDoa tsnbivibixi rf iii G3 niIq d tsiIJ 9DroM

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Page 20: cwpq iv on - NBER

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ji'jjA IEG 22flhIJG fJJG GLLOL €() !2 luqGbcuqcu rnq GxLGmG-IJnc

Page 21: cwpq iv on - NBER

+ k %)) =fl2JIJ CJJflJG O ALipJG A = (5\\\X)1\ I 12 JJGLG4OLG 4JJG C2G

(3) -— +

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JJJI2 Jqcucic2 C9IJ pG AGLiiGq imiuqwcGj p?. quqJiJ pOçJJ 2iqG2 O 4JJG

= (5) — T\5l:G _+5J\5) (s@)

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MJJO2G if2GJIJUC22 M2 GxbJoTcGq p? KC (j) uq 2flp2cdifGIicJ2 P2 BLOCI (io)

GJ1IJJ1UG cr% GLIIJ2 III () 1P12 CIJ G qOUG p? H2JU JJG iqGucic??

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HOMGAGL JTUJ1JG JJG HOHCOObGLiAG C2G jijcjipooq O GgCJJ MIJJ ¶CCOITIJ

'e{—TJ} e{—TJ} =T\k> ))= (52)

sb(( +ft( %))

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( JJJG bLoppJJiçX fflGF2IILG CpcLCcGL1iIJ 4JJG loiIJç C}JOICG O OJJOM2 çJJc

Page 22: cwpq iv on - NBER

AJJICJJ CIJ pG LGALJçGIJ 9

—00

I (b( -)(Gb(\y + ) + Gb( - - a))) 1q\Lao

(J)-00—

+ )c)\lao I

'b09() itjjj cdnj\S E {—''}

> cb((\ + \)) = Gb(\ + ') + X( — — ) A (2o)

HOMGAGL 2IIJCG

{_jj}(> b((\+')). •(> (5)

-00Gb(—00

—00—

i J} E { — TT} I — + =

Lao

'E{—TJ} t{—TT} =T>i =

I

rImmJu JJI GXBLG22IOU OAGL gjj BOIpJG LGJ11OU O ?JGJ2

-00jj + ()(x)T\5L Gb(_—_ I

ii '(\w)1

°°b( —) Tb(x) =I x

s.=T( )( Gb(-+c\)) =LaoI

Page 23: cwpq iv on - NBER

5T

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= + ()

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= — + \) + b( — —(2)

cJJG /JITC 0 yft \) CAJIJcGq (JGI1JIJG(J pA

2111CC JJG qCUomiIJçoL 0 (3) 12 J11qCbC11qC11 0 t '2 1UCLC9'2G2 4G Lçio 0

(( - + ) + b( - - ()qGcGLIIJIIICq pA

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l: —)((\ +) +b( — —

= ()(b( - + ) + b( - -

II}JGLG

-oç) = _ v(x ) = T ()tb((\W+ )( >

I

Page 24: cwpq iv on - NBER

tqx3 9i3r{Wi9Vs OI9 iBIJp9 f{DiL{W nodniI i ..s nOrJDHth uiiU s as 9vsr{3d

mi rli 1I9Vi i3rIhw' . s

x (( ______________________ (

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II .\ as iii ma rLf rLfiw (*rHU\ + \HM = *SH 10 O01 9f{ 9iOfl3b

1191li a9Diorb 9J9Daib 10 riothidnaib lliO[ 9[{ a3i19ksisrI3 () .p9

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.aflOD19fIi iodf{i3n 3Th3H £{iW af9bom iol aiuam tfLSilJiVIIi lo

Page 25: cwpq iv on - NBER

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HsiDoa sd I1ita 11kw Isvsl sri rrxuFidiliups isnnslq IsiDoa sri as nia srnsa sri aI triuoam muiidifinps svis1sqooDrIorx sri iii aJnss slirlw IsvitirntriI .n3iDi11sni

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lo IIsrl asxonx anoiaiDsb svits1sqooDr1ori isbnri sirrafism y)ilidsdoiq mriiidiliups sri slidw sri sarisa sri iii anoiaiDsb Isirbivibni its d bsaiibni aisvolliqa Isot sri sri lo friIJ0DD6 s)1st ton asob sri ioivsdsd airl Js11s k ifiubivibrii orio aisvolliqa

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bstroqqua 3d £153 imi1 'morio3s 5L&I sri cxi 1o 5310±) aisnns1q IsiDoa sn[T

ibss ot 11osq vtiIitis IsiDoa siLt ni1drrob id rIi)1smnIoiansb bsiIs1ns3sb isbrirr

Page 26: cwpq iv on - NBER

5T

LL0b0cJOD jLc DfflUGL2 [01 qiaic;c CII0!CG2 MJJJ 20C19J rn4cL9qiOu

MC cu n€ ;p J1mJc1u pGpAioL o () coucJrrqG LLobo2icJou 'MJJIC]J JJ92 fJJC 21G OLIJJ 92 () M}JCIJ JIJ GdJTçiou 12 LGbJ9cGq RJ4JJ

E{—jj} r1E{—JJ}> + >

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illCG — — = — MC C9IJ LCGXbLG22 BLOPPJJ1I

t'E{_JJ} t\1E{—TT}> X(\( (_I)5)))oç(c) = = = (to)

b(( (ç_I)))I I

Cp9iCCL1Cq p }JC ]oiii bLopp3pç? mG2flLc

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uoucoobGL9'çiLGJ? MGLC JJ9 M}JICJJ pq n obbo2JC 2!IJ r JJ112 12 G9'2iJ?

uçijiç2 b?o coiTJq G conucCLbLoqiTcc1AC 1 GcTrnJJpLrnm CJJO2CIJ

o cOITL2G iç 12 9'Jao bo22JpJC !11 JJJ2 C9'2G qonpJiu O JJC 20C19'J

rnq1Aiqa9'J rn 4JJG 2GU2C o qoJTpJiu '\;

Page 27: cwpq iv on - NBER

52

LOL bLoboLçiouJ 2bJJJo/L2 moqj cpG GxbGccGq nJJJc?L o

()I

I

qiGLGuciçJIJ miçJJ LG2BGC 4o LGAG9'J2 4JJ9

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p n p combnçrn xbcçq flpjiç? o inoucoobGLçiA uq 2OC19j bJcIJucL cdrnJJpLi OL 2oc19j 1T41JJç2

JJJJG rnçrnçion OL qi2cLGb9rJc? GMGGIJ LGJcion2Jnb

GTIC42 O 4JJG OLIJJ (2)

JTIJcJGL qGcIJcL9JJq qGci2ionmciu JJJGU 2OC19J IJ4JJJç? GXJnpJc2 couourn

J4pc ocwj bJnuGLa CJJOJCG o, ?r III 4}JE J1LG GcononJ? Jimic C9U pG 2HbbOLçGq

qcciaioInrnJJcTu 1AJT coUtoLm14A GUGC42

LL0h0410U j n rwpipA o ocij bjrmrct cdrnppuimr nirqci

qGci2iourn'Juu JJn2 JmrnGqicGJ? iIubJiG2 bLOb02!c!011 jo

2OC1J bJnuGL GdrnjipLrnm 12 DG o 24&çG 2ojnçion2 flflGL qGcGIJçLJiGq

2bGcJpcioIJ2 JIJ JTG BLG2GIJCG O4 conoLuJiç? GUGC2 cjJoic JGAGJ in

qnJGLGUcG GMGG1J 4JJG bLoboLpouJ 2bIJJ0AGL2 9iJ COUOLIU1ç? GRGC2

y coinbLi2oIJ O LLObO2IcJOIJ ieiçJJ JLobo2i4ioIJ J LGAG9J2 91J imbOL4IIç

(is)

(T) CJJL9CçGLJG2 lOiIJç qJ24LIpITçTOU o qI2CLGcC CJJOJCG2 cpGn

p quoç cJJG Looç o &s = i1(+ \i) iiip JG 2mG 21ll 2 r j Gd

oci bJmrcL &JrnpprnmJ p cououm G1GC42

Page 28: cwpq iv on - NBER

€d ni jIiw noivonni fiIiu nwo airl ot bqi rIiw 9vrfn91q1 si{ ir1 3rLt svsrl rnniidiIiup vLt613qooDflon lo fimiI mono

* (* + + k)E ()

Isnism s 0 < flr{w srli nsm ir{T .ci = naiano3-1h d nia f&iq i{ lo i!iu bqx rI ifii I9vI iorb rL iii 3a1Dni aii IvI iorh 9II lii atD3b 0> nadw airfw rii

noiitni Iio r{ lo 3viD9qiq r{ moil rtm itIT .i1iiii b3qx9 nm rI iii iIsnix a i ir{ td v)iJthc liiubivibni no nnoqmo

d bluoD 1?fiIihc bbqx s aIsubivibth id ioI binrroxm on i ibiriw I9vf .usm i{ ii nr{ bsnibiooD d biDni

visviib b9siDo r1 bnr! ido i{ no tD9uI imio1no3 ibnU wollol Iliw

(* (* - — () .0 = (* (*)T) = __________________

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flfflci0iivfl3 vLffiiqoo3noc1

Page 29: cwpq iv on - NBER

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vti1iddoiq r1iw rri

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Page 30: cwpq iv on - NBER

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