Beyond Bangkok 2020 Declaration -...

Yoshitsugu HayashiEducation and Research Center

for Sustainable Co-DevelopmentNagoya University (NU-SusCoDe)

Public Symposium on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) in Asia

17 March 2015 @ Nagoya University SusCoDe

Beyond Bangkok 2020 Declaration

1Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni SusCoDe-UNCRD EST in Asia

Critical Issues1. Urban Transport

1. Low Carbon Avoid, Shift, Improve strategies + WCTRS-CUTE Matrix

2. Motorisation – Suburbanisation Nexus3. Integrated Transport4. Compact city /Smart city /Smart transport ?

2. Sustainability Indicators and Standard Analysis Method1. CO22. Pollution (PM2.5,……..)3. Well-Being QOL approachCO2/Pollutants Performance for QOL

3. Spatial Scale1. Urban Transport Mega Region Transport Intercity Transport2. Industrial (Re)Location and Transport Provision in mega-regional/

international scale3. LCC rapid development vs High Speed Rail

4. Sustainability vs. Resilience?


Urban Transport

1. Low Carbon Avoid, Shift, Improve strategies + WCTRS-CUTE Matrix

2. Motorisation – Suburbanisation Nexus3. Integrated Transport4. Compact city /Smart city /Smart transport ?


4

Risk of rapid growth in CO2 emission in developing countries in Asia

Per C

apita

GHG

Em

issio

n

Low Carbon SocietyBackcastingDeveloping Countries

Leap-frog

Developed Countries

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni SusCoDe-UNCRD EST in Asia

5

Bangkok Post4 Sept 1993


6

Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni SusCoDe-UNCRD EST in Asia

Photo by Hayashi (1994)7Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni SusCoDe-UNCRD EST in Asia

A Sign for Leapfrog turning to Railways towards Low Carbon Transport in AsiaCO2

1989 2005 20502020

Leap-Frog

BAU

Master Plan in 2020

Heavy CongestionBTS Sky Train

20kmMRT Development

81km 10lines total 464km

19991989 2010

Car51％

Bus49％

Rail5％

Car57％

Bus38％ Rail

Car


050

100150200250

0 20 40 60050100150200250

0200400600

0

10

20

30

40

0 500 1,0000

10

20

30

40

0200400600

9

CO2 Emission Caused by Urban Transport(Emission Structure)

Tokyo

GDP[bil.US$]

CO2 from transport[bil.t-CO2/day]

Total person-km

[million km/ day]

AVOID

SHIFT IMPROVE

Seamless Public Transport

Energy Efficient Transport

Bangkok

12.9 m pop11.6 m pop

1968

20102008

11.3 m pop

D1:診断

Total vehicle-km [million km/ day]

Compact Urban System

Total Trips [million trips/ day]

1968

2008


http://www.google.co.jp/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=GSMkmeiaNKvgiM&tbnid=FlyJoi4k2IloUM:&ved=0CAgQjRw&url=http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%BF%E3%82%A4%E3%81%AE%E5%9B%BD%E6%97%97&ei=aASwUqXlEMOhlQXx9ICgCA&psig=AFQjCNG8MwCg0fTwtCSW1wwtiqKXxfCuVw&ust=1387353576302819


1.Urban Structure

A. Wide spread

B. TOD

C. Centralized

D. Multipolar

3. Technologyby mode

New system

Technological Innovation

2. Network

a. Grid

b. Hybrid

c. Radial

1)

2)

3)

Urban Rail|

Bus

Urban rail|

Para-transit

BRT|

Bus4)

BRT|

Para-transit

Shape Mode

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE


http://blog-imgs-18.fc2.com/l/e/g/legacybp5/file_20060512T014759593.jpg

http://blog-imgs-18.fc2.com/l/e/g/legacybp5/file_20060512T014759593.jpg

11

Avoid Shift ImproveReduce traffic demand

Reduce emissions per unit Transported

Reduce emissions per kilometer

Technology

Pedestrian Ort Dev’tBicycle Ort Dev’tTransit Ort Dev’t

Integrated Public Transport System(BRT+ParaTransit)

Highly Competitive Railway

LEV, EVAlternative Energy Advanced Infra- TechLogistic Efficiency

Regulation

TDMParking RegulationCompact/Mix Land Use

Bus/Tram PrioritiesNon-MTSmarter Modal Evolution

Emission StandardTop Runner ProgramEco-Drive

Information

ICTTeleworkSmart Choices for

Workplace and Schools

Awareness Campaign KnowledgebaseITSLabeling of Vehicle

Performance

Economic

Fuel TaxRoad PricingCar Charge / FeeLocation Subsidy

Fuel TaxRoad PricingCar Charge / Fee

Fuel TaxLEV Preferential Tax

Instruments

Strategy


0.2

0.25

0.3

1970 1990 20100

100

200

300

1970 1990 20100

200

400

600

1970 1990 2010

0

20

40

60

1970 1990 2010

× ×

Travel Demand Car Dependency

＝

CO2 emissionsAVOID SHIFT IMPROVEMitigation

12

Energy Efficiency

Built-up Area

0

1000

2000

1960 1980 2000 2020

[km2]

Car Ownership

0100200300400

1960 1980 2000 2020

[Car/1000capita]

◆ Tokyo＊ Shanghai▲ Bangkok

Railway Capacity

0

2

4

6

1960 1980 2000 2020

[Mio. P-km/day]Trip Frequency

20

30

40

1970 1990 2010

[Mio. Trips]

[Mio. p-km/day]Bangkok [Mio. v-km/day] [kg-CO2/km]

[year]

[kt-CO2/day]

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020

Fuel EfficiencyRegulation[g-CO2/ km]

JapanChina

Tokyo

CO2 Emission Caused by （林の排出構造動的追跡図）


Miracle Revolution of Bangkok


Chronological Summary of MRT Development in Bangkok

Year SRT ETA (MRTA) BMA

1970sFeasibility study

1980s

Private Involvement (Fail)Feasibility study

Private Involvement(Fail) Private Involvement

1990s

Private InvolvementConstruction (Incomplete) Private Involvement (Fail)

Construction

Construction

2000sConstruction

Hopewell

Lavalin

BTS

Blue Line

Airport Link

JICA BIRD ACCESS report


Photo by Hayashi(2002)

SHIFTAfter SHIFT


Newly Added Rail Transit Till Today

Before 1990

0 5

Kilometers

0 5

Kilometers

Hopewell project 1990Lavalin project 19921999 Opening of BTS (Skytrain)2004 Opening of MRTA (Blue line)2010 Opening of SRT (Airport link)

0 5

Kilometers

Suvarnabhumi Airport

Don Mueang Airport

Makkasan

Bang Sue

Hua Lamphong

Siam


IntroductionBangkok

1990s (before MRT Development)

2000s(After MRT Development)

Photo by Hayashi, 1993Photo by Hayashi, 2002

05

10152025

1972 1985 1990Aver

age

spee

d (k

m/h

r)

Trend of Traffic Congestion


Road vs Rail: which is more effective for calming traffic congestion

Travel Time

Travel Time

RoadDevelopment

RailDevelopment

Transport Volume

Transport Volume

DraSra1

Sra2

Dro2

Sro1

Sro2

Construction & Operation Cost

CO2 Emissions: -22%

CO2 Emissions: -45%

2050 Road-Oriented Development (Bangkok)

2050 Rail-Oriented Development (Bangkok)

-22%

-30%

Construction & Operation Cost

Urban Policy Roadmap


New rail transit systemUrban Expressway

3 Factors for Drastic Improvement in Road Traffic Congestion

Outer Ring Road

Industrial zone

0 10

Kilometers

Suvarnabhumi Airport

Don Mueang Airport

Makkasan

Bang Sue

Hua Lamphong

Siam


0 25 50CO₂ Emissions (Mt-CO₂/year)

car rail bus truck

The Effects of Integrated Transport Systems on Traffic Congestion and CO2 Mitigation

20

Industrylegend

MRT

Inner-ringOuter-ring

15.2km/h

14.0km/h

8.9km/h

12.7km/h

Present

Without Outer-ring Roads

Without Inner-ring Roads

Without MRT

CO2：+10.7% Speed：-16.3%

CO2：+1.1% Speed：-8.0%

CO2：+0.8% Speed：-41.7%

Interregional Vision


Current:2010yr 84.8km

Planning：2016yr 236km2019yr 391km2029yr 509km

（12lines）Source:Master Plan Study to adjust rail mass transit system in Bangkok and its vicinity（2010）

SHIFTSHIFT


Sustainability Indicators and Life Style1. CO2

2. Pollution (PM2.5,……..)3. Well-Being QOL approachCO2/Pollutants

Performance for QOL


Driving Forces of Society in Asia

23

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Popu

latio

n gr

owth

ratio

from

20

10

Japan

China

Thailand

1.030.97

0.86

10.4%12.0%

14.4%17.2%

20.2%23.4%

26.2%28.5%

30.4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

201020152020202520302035204020452050

Age 0 - 14 15 - 64 65 +

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

per-

capi

ta G

DP (1

000

US$) China （5.5～8.9）

Thailand（3.7～8.1）

Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

③Ageing in Thailand （2010-2050）

2.92 times(2010-2050)

Per c

apita

GDP

(100

0US$

)

Popu

latio

n gr

owth

ratio

n fr

om 2

010

②Population change (vs 2010)①Economic growth (vs 2010)

Driving Force


24

(2008) (2007)

CO2 per Capitafrom Transport

Tokyo 23 district Inner LondonTrip Purpose

1.6t (2004)

Trip Purpose

1.2t (2010)CO2 per Capitafrom Transport

Efficiency Demanding Sufficiency Seeking

Targeting Low-Carbon Urban Transport Systems

2008

Private49%

Commuting31%

Education9%

Business11%

2010

Private69%

Commuting17%

Education8%

Business6%

Mode share Mode share

Urban Vision


Vision of Future Society needed for Low Carbon Transpor in Asia

Aggressive Growth (Efficiency Demanding)

Moderate Growth(Sufficiency Seeking)

Society Economically Developed Socially Matured

Production Mass Production for Mass Consumption More Local Production for Local Consumption

Lifestyle Work Oriented More Social Activities

Travel Purposes

Working Age Elderly

CommutingCommuting

ShoppingShopping

Private

Business

Private

Business

TOKYO (2008) TOKYO (2008)

Quality Human-Oriented Spatial DesignQuantity-based Spatial Design

Urban Vision


CBD

Sub Centers

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE

Vision of Urban Transport System:Hierarchically Connected Compact City

Well-Connected Hierarchical Urban Cores

Hierarchical Public Transport System

Low-Carbon & Efficient Road Transport System

Mass Rapid Transit(MRT)

Transit Oriented Development(TOD)

Urban Vision

Feeder-Improved Station Hinterland

Attractive Urban Development Frequent Feeder Services

Station

Car-Oriented Station Front Car-Free Station Front

Quality Openspace

1 2 3


http://www.google.co.jp/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=S75oB5Ia98FHYM&tbnid=AMRuUnIvZXd4zM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.city.kounosu.saitama.jp/8,18787,90,552.html&ei=gwSfUdD5OcSEkwWU64CwBg&bvm=bv.47008514,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNFUsZvQltiDwtlC1iSxCaGhdLvG9w&ust=1369461583549083

http://www.google.co.jp/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=S75oB5Ia98FHYM&tbnid=AMRuUnIvZXd4zM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.city.kounosu.saitama.jp/8,18787,90,552.html&ei=gwSfUdD5OcSEkwWU64CwBg&bvm=bv.47008514,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNFUsZvQltiDwtlC1iSxCaGhdLvG9w&ust=1369461583549083

Road-Oriented Development (2050)

Rail-Oriented Development (2050)

Comparison in Effectiveness by Road and Rail ImprovementsUrban Policy Roadmap

Car78%

Rail2.7%

Bus19%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0 200 400 600Avg

Trav

el T

ime

(hr/

trip

)

Transport Volume (thousand trips)

Road transport

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0 200 400 600

Aver

age

trav

el ti

me

(hr/

trip

)

Transport Volume (thousand trips)

Rail transport

Car38%

Rail39%

Bus23%

2005

City Centre

Inner SuburbOuter Suburb

Travel from Inner Suburb to City Centre

-12%


0.000.050.100.150.200.250.30

1996 2001 2006 2011

g-PM

/ k

Wh

PM

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

1996 2001 2006 2011

g-N

ox/

kWh

JapanEUUSChinaThailand

NOx

00.010.020.030.040.050.06

1995 2000 2005 2010

Annu

al a

vera

ge[m

g /

m3 ]

PM

00.010.020.030.040.050.06

1995 2000 2005 2010

Annu

al a

vera

ge

[ppm

]

NO2 NO

Euro2

Euro3Euro4

Euro5

Euro2Euro3

Euro4,5

Atmospheric Concentrations of NOx and PM around roads in Japan

Source: Ministry of Environment ,Japan, www.env.go.jp/air/osen/index.html 28

IMPROVE


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

29

The Roadmap for Low-Carbon Urban Transport Development in ASEAN Megacities

40%24%31%25%

CO2-emission reductionMillion tons

IMPROVE

SHIFT

AVOIDLand-use control (3% less annual expansion of built-up area)

Increasing LEV share (EV76%, HV23%), Improving Fuel Efficiencies (by 28%)Emission intensity of power generation(2005:1269g-CO2/kwh 2050: 546g-CO2/kwh)

4,568 km MRT development,(6cities, Ave.: 760 km/city) 23,337km BRT development(23cities, Ave.:1015km/city)



0

200

400

600

800

0 50 1000

200

400

600

800

05001,000

0

10

20

30

40

05001,0000

10

20

30

40

0 500 1,000

30

TokyoAVOID

SHIFT IMPROVE

Bangkok

12.9 m pop

10.8 m pop

1968

2005

2008

2050

Urban Policy Roadmap Possibility of CO2 ReductionBy AVOID/SHIFT/IMPORVE

12.2 m pop

Road-orientedRail-oriented

GDP[bil.US$]

CO2 from transport[bil.t-CO2/day]

Total person-km

[million km/ day]

Total vehicle-km [million km/ day]

Total Trips [million trips/ day]

Rail-oriented (Feeder)

+21%-1%

-10%

Rail-oriented (Car-free)

-36%




Preference for Living Environment

0%

10%

20%

Shop Access

Work Access

House SpaceStreetscape

Flood

Burglar

Hospital Access

School Access

Green Area

Rent Cost

Air Pollution

Traffic Accident

Safety

Amenity

31

Urban VisionIndicators of Quality of Life -Bangkok-

High incomeMiddle income (Over Age 60)

Middle income (Working Age)Low income

Preference for Travel Mode

0%

10%

20%

Transfer

Travel Time

Riding Space

In-Vehicle Space Quality

Traffic Accident

Travel Cost

Access to Mode

Flexible Departure

Arrival Delay

Privacy

Crime

Accessibility

Quality Station-Front Development Transit Quality Improvement

Car Attractiveness Transit Attractiveness


Bukit Panjang LRT

• 8 km, 14 stations

• Opened in 1999

(Sun, G., LTA)

Sengkang LRT

• 11km, 14 stations

• Integrated with Sengkang MRT

• Fully-automated system

• Opened in 2003

Punggol LRT

• 10km, 15 stations

• Integrated with Punggol MRT

• Fully-automated system

• Opened in 2005

LRT Integrated with MRT in Singapore

32

SHIFT


× ×

Travel Demand Car Dependency Energy Efficiency(Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emissions/km)

GDP

(Modal Split)

＝

CO2 emissions

GDP

IMPROVEMitigation

Decomposing the Vision(Target) of Urban Transport Systemsinto Low Carbon Strategies

33

Downsizing Transport

Urban Sprawl

Seamless Public Transport Mobility

Congestion

Energy EfficientTechnology & Supply Chain

Transit Oriented Urban Lifestyle

Motorisation

AVOID SHIFT

Environmentally-Friendly Industrial Complex

Moderate Growth

(Ageing / Sufficiency seeking)

Aggressive Growth

(Efficiency Demanding)

Road-Oriented Development

Urban Vision


2000 2005 2010

2000 2005 2010

Bangkok (7,650km2)

Shanghai (6,400km2)

~5,000 ~10,000 ~30,000 ~50,000 ~100,000Population

[person]

0100200300400

02468

2000 2005 2010

Pop[million] Rail length[km]

0100200300400

02468

2000 2005 2010

Pop[million] Rail length[km]

Rail length

City center(129km2)

Urban fringe(1,051km2)

Suburb(6,473km2)

City center(114km2)

Urban fringe(550km2)

Suburb(5,737km2)

Rail length

Changes in MRT Networks and Urban Forms


0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

0

100

200

300

400

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

Trip Frequency

Built-up Area

Traffic Speed

Fossil Fuel Share

Railway Network intensity

× ×

Travel Demand Car Dependency

GDP

(Modal Split)＝

CO2 emissions

GDP

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVEMitigation

Car Ownership

Fuel Efficiency

35

Energy Efficiency(Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emission / km)

Dynamic Tracking of Transport Related Emission Mechanism

0

500

1,000

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

km2Car/1000pop

Tokyo 23Bangkok MA Km/ km2


Tokyo 23Bangkok MA

Tokyo 23Bangkok MA


Spatial Scale

1. Urban Mega Region Intercity 2. Industrial (Re)Location and Transport Provision in

mega-regional/ international scale3. LCC rapid development vs High Speed Rail


Air Pollution in Shijia Zhuong


Lorries transporting consumer goods back to Beijing Moving emission

source


China

USA

Total cargo weight(In billion tons)

GDP (In trillion dollars)

CO2 emission (In billion tons)

Tota

l tra

nspo

rt w

eigh

t and

di

stan

ce (I

n bi

llion

tons

and

km

)

Total road transport weight and distance (In billion tons and km)

Japan

‘61‘11

‘98

‘11

‘98

‘11

‘11 ‘11

‘98‘90

‘03

‘09

‘03‘98

‘09

‘09‘09

‘09‘09

Japan

China

ChinaChina

Japan

Japan

Japan:China=1:4

Japan:China=1:12


× ×

Travel Demand Air/Truck Dependency Energy Efficiency(Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emission Factor)

GDP

(Modal Split)＝

CO2 emissions

GDP

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVEMitigation

Decomposing the Vision(Target) of Interregional Transport Systemsinto Low Carbon Strategies

40

Efficient Supply Chain

Low-Carbon Public Transport Mobility

Energy Efficient Technology &

Operation

Rail-Oriented Industrial Renovation

Global Industrialisation

(Block Economies)

Growth in Low Cost Carriers & Motorisation

Rail-Oriented Lifestyle

Economic Growth



41

Future Society and Requirements for Transport Systems

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

per-

capi

ta G

DP (1

000

US$) China （5.5～8.9）

Thailand（3.7～

8.1）

Per c

apita

GDP

(100

0US$

)Rapid Economic Growth (-2050) Abolition of Customs

ASEAN6

VietnamMyamar,

Laos

Cambodia

0~5%

0~5%

0~5%

0~5%

0%

0%※some exceptions

2002 2006 2008 2010 2015

Interregional CompetitionIncrease in Freight

➁Higher Speed①Bulky Transport System

➂Low Carbon

3 Requirements

Prepared by Shinya HanaokaYoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya Uni

Shanghai

Singapore

Phnom Penh

GMS(Greater Mekong Sub region)

42

Hanoi

Road(Economic Corridor)Bangkok

YangonKyaukpyu Port

Kunming

SHIFT

Inland Freight High Speed Rail (HSR) Development between Port Hubs

Proposing Vision: Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport

AVOID

Local Cities on HSR

Light Industry

Advanced Industry & Commercial

Megacities on HSR

Cities on Local Freight Rail

Heavy Industry

Rail/Water Oriented Intermodal Transport System

Low-carbon Vehicles, Aircrafts, Vessels

Industrial Rail-Oriented Development (ROD) Corridor

IMPROVE




4343

Current Industrial location（Bangkok）Scenario 1：

Priority to resilience for disaster

Scenario 2：Priority to low labor cost (Cambodia)

Scenario 3：Priority to larger economic market(Indian)

Route 2(2,000km)

Port

Bangkok

Ho chi Minh City

530km

To India

Via Singapore

Impact analysis to reduce CO2 emissions by plant location changeEfficient Industrial Supply Chain

Bangkok

100km

CO2 emission -3%

Present Scenario 1

Proximity location of Assembly plant and

supplier

ProductionProcess

+25%CO2 emission

Present Scenario 2

Need of improving Production

process

Route 1(5,000km)

ViaMyanmar

From Thailand

-33%CO2 emission

Sea only Integrated transport

Seamless transport using sea and rail or truck


40% CO2 mitigation 30% time saving

44

Targeting Necessary Rail Use for Low-Carbon Interregional Development

Bangkok(Thailand)

1,000km

Case Study: Bangkok – Hanoi

Optimal Modal Splits for reducing 40% CO2 emission

Hanoi(Vetnum)

(with / without)

Withrailway

Withoutrailway

30% time Saving

Truck Maritime

Railway 91.7%

14.2%



The Roadmap for Low-Carbon Interregional Transport Development in ASEAN and China

45

CO2-emission reduction

New GMS-wide HSR network is

necessary(●●km)

SHIFT

AVOID

Interregional Policy Roadmap


Sustainability vs. Resilience?


3/14（被災3日後） 3/18（7日後） 3/31（20日後） 4/11（1ヶ月後） 5/11（2ヶ月後）

Resilience: QOL Transition after Earthquake

47

・QOL indices are recovered from coast towards inner areas, after roads and facilities were re-open・Areas of QOL stage 2 are bigger than flooding areas from tsunami at 3/31 and 4/11

Health

Life

Cultural life

Social life

1

2

3

4

Stage

Stage

Stage

Stage


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